well, good evening, everyone, i'm erin burnett. out front tonight from cnn's election center. an episode of survivor how republican presidential candidate, rick santorum described the iowa caucuses. here is the thing about iowa, no offense, iowa, you are really important. you are also small. only 2 million registered voters. 640,000 republicans. if the 2008 caucuses were an in caution of what is a head for tomorrow, only about 100 tough those republicans will actually go out on a cold january night to cast their votes. and those who do, only a 50% success rate when it actually comes to picking the eventual nominee. so what's all the hype about iowa? the bottom line is it has a huge influence in who stays and doesn't stay in the presidential race. maybe small, but it packs one big punch. listen to candidates today. they know what is really at stake tomorrow. >> we are not looking for a chief executive officer for this country. we're looking for a commander-in-chief. we're looking for some one who has experience, someone who can lead. >> the next generation is here today. that is why we have to change things today and bring back the traditions of america which means liberty, peace, and prosperity. >> this president has failed. he said if i can't get this economy turned around in three years, i'll be looking at a one term proposition. i'm here to collect. we're going to talk it back. take it back. >> all right, i'm here to collect. pretty optimistic. three-way tie in the latest polls today. some already downplaying expectations. >> i don't think i'm going to win. i think if you look at the numbers, i think that volume of negativity has done enough damage. >> all right, so they're all out talking. one thing amazing abut iowa. talk about what a punch it packs. take a look at my walls. i am real excite ad about my walls. two walls. you will see amazing things they can do tomorrow night. show you this, iowa's poll, example of what we have seen. this just shows the point of how volatile and how important iowa is. this is among republican, likely voters in iowa. from june through now. you can see mitt romney was number one back in june. as we progress a little bit further. you see michele bachmann number one in july with 32%. rating right there. romney number one. in october. but then youee the rise of herman cain up to 34%. highest to that point. mitt romney. once again. but really hovering right in that mid 20s which is where he has been effectively stuck all the way along. herman cain, again in november. then when you see herman cain get out of the race on the accusations of sexual harassment, you have newt gingrich. that was a real surge up to 33%. ron paul then, 28%. as the leader. and then, mitt romney, once again. but still in the mid 20s. at 25. and you see mitt romney there. had this gone a couple more days you would have seen rick san tore up who doubled from 11% of likely voters wednesday to 22% on friday. which is pretty stunning. as you can see, all those different leaders, since this began. so a few votes can make a huge difference. that's why iowa is so important. because a few votes can make the difference between a win and loss and between who eventually becomes the nominee for the gop. that's where john avalon comes in. you looked at this back in 2008. the margin of victory between a winner and runner-up. not very big. >> not big at all. the difference between mike huckabee who won the 2008 caucuses and mitt romney who outpent him, invested so heavily. 10,000 votes. >> stunning. >> stunning. the difference between the number three person, fred thompson, and ron paul who came in fifth, less than 400 votes. you are talking about very narrow margins. this is a high intensity, low turnout election. it's not even prrepresentative the state of iowa. highly conservative. so it is, skews right. and the margins we're talking about are very tight. >> high intensity. right now, benefits, rick santorum who has momentum. looking at "the des moines register" poll. 76% of people who are going to vote for him are going to the poll. highest of anybody. and something that happened today may actually influence that. here is rick santorum and his wife just a few moments ago. >> it is so important to -- to recognize for the family, to recognize the life of that child. and for all of the children to know that they had a brother and sister. [ applause ] and they did. little elizabeth. they were young. but elizabeth was here. i know it's hard. it gives you opportunity to see that -- that we all go through this. this is part of life. >> obviously rick santorum very conservative, and as you were just hearing on john king passionately and for years fought for the partial-birth abortion. can he win? does he have the staying power that mike huckabee did not? >> look there is no question he has the big momentum at the right time. we see a lot of crocodile tears in campaigns. a moment of genuine emotion. it helps project authenticity, realness that people really want to see in a candidate. something mitt romney butted up against. if santorum can coalesce the voters who keep looking for an alternative to mitt romney. the big mo at the right time. he cannot only have a win tomorrow night. then he can performs reasonably well in new hampshire, very different electorate, oech and into south carolina that becomes a long protracted play. you are going to see ron paul supporters are very intense. they're not going away. those are the top tier. there are going to be surprises. rick perry trying to put forred a are -- forward a ground game. newt gingrich saying i'm a victim of negative attacks. here is the key if you trying to see if you stay in at the end of the race. if you are appealing to conservative voters, coming in at the bottom of the race in iowa, you have a big problem. >> what made you make your decision? an adviser to rudy giuliani. he did make his big bet in florida. when he lost he got out right after. how do you make the decision, if you are not a winner when do you get out? >> figure out which state is the best fit for you. florida tend to be the tiebreaker. in the case of florida, the florida strategy. when florida didn't work out. when he came in third in florida he knew the game was up. he pulled out the next day and endorsed john mccain. if you are a social conservative candidate, running on the conservative populist train, and rick perry, michele bachmann, at the bottom of the caucus tuesday night. you have a real problem. do you pack up your tent? endorse some one else, call it a good fight. or camp in south carolina. if you do that, a fractured conservative field an asset for mitt romney. >> thank you very much. there could be no better setup for the person that joins us now. one candidate who is here, poll numbers ion wa, surge, as you saw, the leader this summer for a while. and then fall, congresswoman michele bachmann. the latest des moines register poll has the her at 7%. which, would put her, according to this poll, in last place. six out of six. she joins us now from des moines. good to see you, congresswoman. fresh it. nice to talk to you again. you know it's interesting how john was putting this. if you are a conservative and, a social conservative, that iowa is a must-win state. do you feel that way? if you come in last in iowa, does that make your, rudy giuliani moment? >> well we are looking forward to tomorrow night to see the results. because we have done what no other candidate has done after the last debate, in sioux city, iowa, we got on a bus. we traveled 6,900 miles through all 99 iowa counties. and we saw quite literally thousand of iowans on the spot, flipping from being undecided to voting for me. voting to another candidate to voting for me. the biggest issue in the last debate was the issue whether iran should have a nuclear bomb. ron paul said he had no problem with iran having a nuclear bomb. i took on ron paul. i took on newt gingrich. i took on mitt romney. people saw in me some one who is capable of taking on, president obama, defeating him and going on to be president of the united states. and so i think tomorrow night, we'll issue a very different result than what people are seeing. because again, still, 50% of the people registered at the polls as the undecided in iowa. i have a very strong suspicion we'll see a lot of people coming out and voting for me. in addition i have over 200 pastor endorsements across the state of iowa. no other candidates has that level of evangelical support. i think we really need to wait until tomorrow night to see what the results are. >> and you are -- a statement said you were the biblical candidate. bib li biblically approved. can you explain what that means? >> i am the candidate that i hope will be iowan approved. iowans will stand up for me whether fiscal conservative candidates iowans because of all the candidates i am the strongest fiscal conservative. i am a federal tax lawyer. i am a successful private business woman. for five years i have been fighting against out of control spending in washington. that's what iowans are looking for in their next president. they want someone that will stand for them and stand against washington. i have been proven and tested. that is a big difference between myself and other candidates. mitt romney is a big spender. newt gingrich, big spender. rick santorum voted for the bridge to nowhere. all about earmarks. so we can't have our nominee be a big spending republican. we need to have a fiscal conservative and i'm the one of all the candidates that fits that bill. >> let me ask you though, if coming out of this -- you end up in a situation where -- you have rick santorum, you have perry, you have yourself, and you all continue and nobody gets out. what you end up doing is splitting the conservative vote. therefore, handing the nomination on a silver platter to mitt romney. if you were staying in in up with that outcome are you all right with it? >> this is conventional wisdom on the part of the punditry it will probably bear no relaotian to reality. this is very early in the book about the 2012 election. a lot of chapters yet to be written. people thought i didn't have a chance to win in the iowa straw poll. yet i defied the odds. i was the first one in the history of the straw poll to actually win the race. there is only been one statewide race so far. i have won it. we have aeady bought our tickets for, going to south carolina. we'll be on a plane after the iowa straw poll, we'll be campaigning for three days in south carolina. then we'll be on to new hampshire. we'll participate in the debates. we look forward to being the nominee of the republican party. and defeating barack obama in 2012. >> congresswoman michele bachma bachmann. thank you. good to talk to you. you heard her say she will be on the plane no matter what to south carolina right after the caucuses tomorrow. well, los angeles authorities have made an arrest in the rash of arsons that have really put the area on edge. so who is the suspect? and did anger at the american government play a role in the fires? this is an interesting story about immigration. plus, a shooting rampage that led to the murder of a ranger at mt. rainier national park. that its over. and a former iraq war veteran believed to be the shooter dead. and the father of baby ayla, the missing todder from maine spoke out for the first time since his daughter disappeared. the vegetables are cut nice and thick... you were always good at cutting your vegetables. and it's got tender white-meat chicken... the way i always made it for you. oh, one more thing honey... those pj's you like, the ones with the feet, i bought you five new pairs. love you. did you see the hockey game last night? 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>> well, we know that his mother had recently undergone some kind of immigration hearing. and that it didn't go well. that he was very upset about it. now the question is, was it the motive for this particular crime? obviously, with his arrest now, and this was information about the suspect provided by federal authorities to the arson task force. so obviously one of the thing that they're trying to do is establish is this the motive, are there other factors involved, and this is part of what they're moving forward today very quickly with this investigation following this arrest. >> and you are reporting, indicates that he was perhaps from germany? >> that -- our law enforcement sources are telling us that he is of german origin. obviously the van -- had british columbia, canadian plates, which adds kind of an element of mystery to it. did he go to canada first? how long was he in the los angeles yar? was he in the los angeles area with his mother? those are things that are still kind of unfolding. and things that we are pursuing in reporting this story. but, again, obviously four days of pretty terrify nights where the fires were just popping up all over the place in a very tight area and time. >> all right, thank you very much. andrew, we appreciate it. as we said, reporting on the immigration story on whether, the man had originally been from germany has been the one who broke all of that for us. well, in washington state tonight. the massive search for the killer who went on a shooting rampage and gunned down a ranger at mount rainier national park is over. authorities say a body found in snow-covered terrain is that of benjamin colton barnes, an a rack key war veteran, suspected of murdering margaret anderson, park ranger on new year's day. the victim a mother of two. shot at a checkpoint leading into the park. the gunman who allegedly wounded four people at a house party then fled into the woods. now barnes served on the front lines in iraq and may have suffered post-traumatic stress disorder, some are saying given what happened. although of course there is no definitive link at this point. the big question is what is the motive? what happened? why would a 24-year-old man go on a shooting spree like this? a mystery that a lot of people want to solve especially as we have so many people who sacrifice so much coming home from the iraq war. joining us now forensic psychologist, michael brannah. good to have you with us. is this something that would indicate by any of the behavior of what you saw that they could be linked to ptsd? >> well it certainly could be. with post-traumatic stress disorder, combat related post-traumatic stress disorder often times what you find is people who have a heightened sense of danger and reaction to danger. what in essence they do is they strike out or have plans to defend themselves in situations that ordinarily are not dangerous situations. it is not uncommon to see individuals especially those trained with pep ponz to overreact in a way where they employ those weapons against enemies who aren't really enemies who they overreact to, or overestimate the risk of that actual person's intent towards them. >> i mean this is a horrible tragedy. if indepd it was linked to ptsd. if we are able to know that, we have all of these troops coming home. are they being diagnosed and treated or do we have potential for a lot of people with, whether minor, major cases of this, who just are going to, at the least, lead very stressful and unhappy lives because they're not able to get treated? >> it is really a great question. because many of the people returning from the war, the soldiers returning from the iraq wars, and really, all wars who have been through combat, severe comb battle, are at risk for post-traumatic stress disorder. and in essence what may happen to them is that they may return home with horrible traumatic memories of casualties, of murders. of being in fire fights. of being in incredible danger. they may in turn not be identified. may not be identified because they don't talk about it. they keep it to themselves. they hold themselves up a lot of times and are embarrassed by what they're experiencing. >> muk cal thank you very much. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> iran says it developed its first nuclear fuel rod. the big question of course -- is this just the first step to nuclear weapons? general marks comes out front in tonight's outer circle. your wife says she really likes farmville, what is she doing on facebook? farmville, that's tonight's number. ♪ now i'm a geologist at chevron, and i get to help science teachers. it has four servo motors and a wireless microcontroller. over the last three years we've put nearly 100 million dollars into american education. that's thousands of kids learning to love science. ♪ isn't that cool? and that's pretty cool. ♪ according to the british divorce website, divorceon line, yeah, there is a site, a third of all divorce petitions filed in the uk last year that cited unreasonable behavior also mentioned facebook. not kidding. that's a sharp increase from 2009 when one in five petitioners mentioned facebook as a reason they were fooling for divorce. this is probably why we have seen social media cheating sites popping up on