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> i'm wilfred frost. good morning to you from me as well. let's check in " property="og:description">
> i'm wilfred frost. good morning to you from me as well. let's check in ">
good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> i'm wilfred frost. good morning to you from me as well. let's check in on the global market action. yesterday we saw declines. the dow was the out-performer, down just 0.2%, compared to a close to a half percent of declines for the s&p and the nasdaq. more like a third of a decline in those names. oil prices were on the move and energy was the worst sector, followed by materials. you can see we are expected to bounce back today. the called higher by 60 points, s&p 500 by 8, nasdaq by 13 points. all eyes on what the fed does today. all eyes on the bond markets. we've been around the 2.6 level on the ten-year note. we were above it yesterday, below it today. 2.59 on the ten year. the two-year and the shorter end of the curve have been moving up ahead of this 25 basis point, but at the ten-year, hovering around the 2.6 level. >> a revised reading showing japan's industrial production down 0.4% for the previous mouth. >> and south korea will be holding a plthold ing a presidential election on may 9th to replace its leader. the nikkei closed down, same with the hang seng. the shanghai closed up. an interest rate hike today is priced in, will the tone change? will the language change? will they remove the word gradual to imply the outlook has improved so much they will have more rate hikes this year. >> interebank of japan decisiont tonight. usually out tuesday night, wednesday morning. i wonder if that was pushed back to see what the fed is doing. just thought of that on the spotted. also focusing on bank of england and bank of japan tomorrow. european equities are higher. 0.3% for germany. ftse 100 up 0.2%. the dutch goes to the polls today. we'll have a live report from holland in the second block of this show. the results of that expected around about this time tomorrow morning. >> as for the broader markets, there's been drama in the oil market weighing on stocks over the last day or so. we got api data showing a surprise draw down in u.s. crude stockpiles. later this morning, it's wednesday, the official inventory date from the u.s. energy department is due. but that inventory report from the industry already having a big impact. that surprise draw down giving crude oil prices a lift this morning to the tune of almost 2% for wti. 48.54. we go back above $48 a barrel. brent, 51.65, up almost 1.5%. nat gas is flat. in yesterday's session, oil at one point was down almost 3%. that weighed on stocks. talk of the saudis complying with production cuts. let's show you the dollar the dollar has been strong, particularly against the yen. moving the other way this morning. not such big moves. the euro is firmer. 1.0633. the pound bounces back from a steep fall yesterday. reaction to the wait and see on when prime minister theresa may will trigger article 50. when the scottish referendum will happen. >> i think the pound bouncing back, that eight-week low we hit yesterday. and some bullish investors stepping in to support it. >> below 1.20s is a big region for me. i'll be there shopping. >> if you go below 1.20, people say there's no support after that. it's just below 1.21, then we can drop to the 1.13, 1.14, that will be ideal for your trip to london. i'm not sure philip hammond would welcome that volatility. gold prices just to round things off, we did have a nine-day losing streak for gold, but the last two or three sessions now are hovering around the flat line. turning to today's agenda the fomc policy decision is due at 2:00 eastern, along with the fed's projections. janet yellen will hold a news conference 30 minutes later. you can watch complete coverage right here on cnbc. in addition to the fed, there's a fair amount of economic data today. february retail sales and consumer price at 8:30 a.m., followed by january business inventories and the nahb survey at 10:00. with the fed, we want to watch the dot plot, which is much more important. it wasn't so important the last couple of years, it was never really stuck to. people have a belief that the mentality at the fed has changed, conditions have changed, and the dot plot may be more accurate than in the past. >> so the dot plot is the projection by fed members on when they'll raise interest rates, how many times this year. in december when they raised rates last, they projected three hikes, now the buzz is things are looking up so much, it could be nofour hikes. does that matter? does that spoil the party in stocks. that is the question nobody knows the answer to, when does that reach a pain threshold. there's the politics of the fed, which is important right now. the "new york times" business section, the fed versus the angry math, where people used to get upset with the fed in times of inflation what stood out to me is jamie dimon yesterday speaking on behalf of the business roundtable, a business lobby group of ceos, talked about qe 4, not from the federal reserve but from the fact that companies could repatriate as much as $2 trillion of their overseas earnings that are sitting just sitting there because the u.s. tax rate is so high f that chan high. if that changes, he says no matter what happens it f it goes to share buybacks, dividend hikes, that's a powerful qe 4 that would be even cheaper than previous qes from the fed. >> saying that kind of fiscal stimulus would be better than monetary stimulus. he said it doesn't even need to be reinvested by the companies, just a simple dividend gets it back into the system. >> i don't know how politically palatable that would be. they release this cash, it just goes back to shareholders. >> at least it's back in the states. >> to politics, the white house confirming president trump paid $38 million in federal income tax in 2005. the white house releasing a statement last night just before msnbc's rachel madow show breaking the news of having two pages of trump's 1040 tax return. according to the document, trump made 1$150 million that year. the 12-year-old tax return was mailed through the postal zf a service to david k. johnson. it does not break down trump's specific sources of income in a statement the white house said the illegally published pages revealed that trump is one of the most successful businessmen in the world, paying no more tax than legally required. >> she did hype this up, teasing an hour or two before the show, that she had the tax returns, wrote in parenthesis seriously, didn't mention it was only the 2005. it got retweeted thousands of times. the end result was that he did pay his taxes. >> for all the hype, particularly coming from rachel madow, the result was slightly, given the debate on this, in support of trump as opposed to the other way around. >> agree except for the fact it highlights the fact we don't know. this was only two pages of one year of a tax return and it sun usual that we don't vice president full picture. >> but that tax rate higher than some past candidates that got criticism on this topic. president trump will visit michigan and revisit fuel economy rules which were put in place by the obama administration trag. press secretary sean spicer says trump will highlighted the need to relieve burdensome regulations. president trump is nomina nominating james donovan as deputy treasury secretary. donovan expected to work on the administration's domestic policy agenda the white house also naming david pal malpass as treasury undersecretary for international affairs. he will be the main conduit between the treasury and imf, that's an important role there as they do research on foreign exchange and other sort of international policies that affected the united states. >> seems like mr. enough season g mnuchin is getting on with it, and we're getting close to the vice chair for supervision, and that will be a big appointment for bank stocks. >> yes. they need more goldman sachs representation in the u.s. government. president trump is tapping christopher giancarlo to head t cftc. in geopolitical news, china's premiere, li keqiang, does not want to see a trade war with the united states. he was speaking at the closing sermceremony of the peoples cons and encouraged better ties between the two nation. the comments come as rex tillerson begins a nearly week-long tour of asia. he will be visiting japan today. premiere li has gotten slightly back into the picture again this year at the congress. he got sidelined. president xi was reportedly punishing him for some economic ve failures, but this year taking the forefront on economic announcements again, so he may be back in the fold. >> this statement on the trade war, that china doesn't want to see it, i don't think it's a new position for china to take, but clearly staking out their position, as we all wait to see where this more confrontational relationship on trade goes. >> rex tillerson traveling through the region at the moment. fbi director james comey is expected to reveal today whether his bureau's investigating potential ties between president trump's campaign and russia. democratic senator sheldon whitehouse said comey promised him and lindsey graham to confirm at a senate hearing whether his agency is probing the trump administration. charges could be coming soon for the people allegedly involved in two separate hacking incidents at yahoo. landon dowdy has more on that story. >> that's right. the justice department is expected to unveil charges as soon as today related to the attacks which exposed millions of yahoo user accounts and reports say authorities will accuse four people, one in canada, three in russia who allegedly have ties to the russian government. last september yahoo disclosed hackers infiltrated its network in 2014 and stole data from more than 500 million users. in september, the company disclosed a second incident affecteding more than 1 billion accounts. it's unclear if the charges are related to one or both of the breaches. the hacks forced yahoo back to the negotiating table with verizon which reached a deal to buy the company last july. last month verizon cut the deal price by 350 milli$350 million$ billion. earlier this month yahoo's top lawyer resigned after senior executives failed to come from hecome from he comprehend or investigate the data breach. when we come back, we'll take you to the netherlands where the dutch are heading to the polls in a key test of european populism, the world is watching. stay tuned, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. with e*trade's powerful trading tools, right at your fingertips, you have access to in-depth analysis, level 2 data, and a team of experienced traders ready to help you if you need it. ♪ ♪ it's like having the power of a trading floor, wherever you are. it's your trade. ♪ ♪ e*trade. ♪ ♪ start trading today at etrade.com welcome back. the top global story, the dutch parliamentary elections. polling booths open across the netherlands this morning. results will be watched to see how strong the populist movement is in europe ahead of other key elections in germany and france. steve sedgwick joins us from the hague with more. good morning. >> yet another complicated european election. the story here is that the firebrand right-winger, geert wilders had been ahead in the polls until the last couple of weeks or so where the mainstream parties picked up a bit of steam. it seems as if this is a litmus test for how far the european el elect wants right wingers in charge of their government. it's coincided with a large spat between the netherlands, germany and a couple other european members with the turkish state as well. the turn irk president is sending out his ministers across europe to win a big referendum, the problem is the dutch and other european nations don't want these ministers speaking to their populations in their own countries. they sent them away at the weekend, there was a big scene here in rotterdam with riot police, and that benefited mark rutte. his numbers have gone up as well. it's not a shoe-in that mr. rutte can form a government. it is fragmented. you have 28 parties on the electoral roll here. any one of five or six could get double digit number of votes in the parliament which could mean a complicated and elongated process of forming a government. the dutch normally take three months to form a government from polling day to having an effective government. mark rutte, though he's seen in poll position to put a government together, he may have to call on allies and other parties including the likes of the pda, the labor party, the left wing green party, green left as well. the like of the d66, a progressive liberal party, et cetera. it gets very complicated. we don't think geert wilders will win this time around, but putting a government together, that could take a while. >> it does get complicated especially when you talk about 1 28 parties. when you say the right wingers may be in control washhat does t mean? >> in france, you have marine le pen, in germany you have the afd. in the netherlands, you have geert wilders, a man under 24-hour security protection because he is stunningly anti-islam. he wants to ban the koran. he wants to close down mosques. he's also very much anti-eu as well. he doesn't like the sense of entitlement he thinks among the political elite. right wing in this country comes from the likes of geert wilders talking about a war on immigration and a war on islam. >> the number of seats he gets will be closely watched. if he does, say, significantly better than expected, even though he's still highly unlikely to become prime minister, will that give a further boost to the likes of marine le pen where things are a bit closer and a boost of 10% to her could get her much closer to being president? >> yeah. here's the thing. marine le pen's opopposition, t centrists are having a mess with fillon. it's almost impossible for the pvv, geert wilder's coalition to form a government. there are 156 seats in the parliament, 76 to get a work majority. the other parties won't work with him. then this building to my right, the senate as well, he has low representation in the senate. so the upper house wouldn't work with him, the lower house wouldn't work with him. i think he prefers being on the outside and being an antagonist of the mainstream politicians. >> steve sedgwick, thank you very much for that report. coming up on the show, one day left to fill out your march madness brackets. we have some expert advice that could improve your chances in the pool. i've already done mine. >> i haven't. >> if you haven't -- >> i need this extra help. ♪ oh♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ you're unbelievab♪e ♪ you're unbelievab♪e today i am helping people everywhere do what they do... better. i work with startups like alpha modus to predict markets five times more accurately. i am helping tv networks use social data to predict what people want to watch. and i worked with marchesa to turn fan feeds into a dress that thinks. hello, my name is watson. working together, we can do things we could not do before. ( ♪ ) upstate new york is a good place to pursue your dreams. at vicarious visions, i get to be creative, work with awesome people, and we get to make great games. ( ♪ ) what i like about the area, feels like everybody knows each other. and i can go to my local coffee shop and they know who i am. it's really cool. new york state is filled with bright minds like lisa's. to find the companies and talent of tomorrow, search for our page, jobsinnewyorkstate on linkedin. now to sports. we have a special one today. that time of year again, march madness. if you want a leg up in your office bracket you have come to the right place, we have eric chimey this morning crunching the numbers and the data. >> thank you. obviously this year's ncaa men's tournament, there's not really a big favorite here. so it's a wide open field. we talked to the experts at cbs sports and turner sports, they're the ones who will be broadcasting this event. so we talk ed ed to five or six them to get their favorite take on the picks. >> first off, easy thing, who are you picking to win the whole thing? >> i have no idea. >> no idea? >> no. >> you have to have some ideas. >> no, i do not. okay. gonza gonzaga. no one is counting them in. they have a heck of a team. >> i do like carolina's size, shooting, good teams get away from their conference, it's refreshing almost. it's like a release. you know, renaissance. you know, rebirth of sorts. >> i have to go with duke. i went to duke. i'm fortunate i can root for my alma mater from a personal standpoint and a business standpoint since duke is one of the most attractive television draws we have. >> this is the hardest tournament to predict that i've seen in my six, seven years doing this. they make you pick somebody. i would probably go with north carolina. >> or gegooregon. >> quick answer. >> yeah. oregon wins the whole thing. >> i'm a ucla fan. >> team from out west will win. ucla might. i like oregon. i like their length, the way they run up and down the floor. they play offense and defense. i love dillon brooks and boucher as a shot blocker. oregon. thanks for being with us. >> so, there you have it. those are some of the picksed from the experts. it's a wide variety of picks. i know you picked last year. i think you picked virginia last year. >> did i? >> i think that's what i remember. your strategy was interesting for oregon. i'm not sure if another year in america has helped you adjust. >> my strategy last year was i liked the pinot noir i was drinking from oregon. >> you vice president green tie today as well. >> sara doesn't like duke. >> a lot of people don't like duke. >> why is that? >> they're the kind of school that gets peoples rage up. >> cocky. >> done. picked. >> that's a wilfred pick. >> that's my pick. >> i don't know. chemi, i was expecting a proprietary mit based model. >> those things you have to pay for. that's the extra value add. >> how do you do yours? >> here's the thing. you want to stay in pools that are about 40 people. you can actually go with the numbers. if you're in a pool with a thousand people, you cannot win. it's like winning the lottery. in a small pool, use the numbers to your advantage. you have to pick something slightly contrarian. think about stocks, if you pick the favorites, you can't beat the market, but you need to find something that's a pretty good risk/reward. >> northwestern all the way. first time in the tournament. >> see, a northwestern alum here. >> go duke. what's duke's tag line? >> blue devils. let's do it. blue devils all the way. great stuff. >> a lot of people are choosing duke. >> well, good, because they're winners. >> not going against the numbers. >> who have you picked? >> i don't know. >> because you don't do it yourself. we're told to go to break. still to come a round up of the global action. and mark zuckerberg takes a high-speed spin alongside a nascar superstar. good morning. it's decision day at the fed. we'll get you ready for janet yellen's news conference. >> new this morning, the white house confirming president trump paid 38 million in 2005 tax returns. a live report from washington coming up. plus, you know the coat, but do you know the company? canada goose flies south to make its ipo debut. it's wednesday, march 15, 2017, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ . good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisenment. >> i'm wilfred frost. good morning to you from me as well. let's check in on the global market action. we are bouncing back. we had declines yesterday of a third of a percent for the s&p and the nasdaq. the dow was down just 0.2%. as you can see, we're expected to open higher today. the dow by 55 points. the s&p by 7.5. the nasdaq by 12.5%. oil prices were front and center yesterday. they were down again around about 2%. that meant energy was the worst performing sector. down about 1% on s&p sectors. we saw the likes of chevron towards the bottom of the dow. oil prices rebounding a bit today. that's helping u.s. futures. asian trade for you was mixed for the large part. japan and hong kong slightly negative. shanghai fractionally higher. european markets as well for you, which are a bit higher today. a third of a percent of gains. that's slipped. we had a third of a percent for germany. we are still green, but not by much. as for the broader markets, oil has been a big mover. wti crude bouncing back strong. back above $48 a barrel. 48.51. 0.78% higher. brent crude 51.61. this the invntory report from api reported a surprise draw down in u.s. crude inventories. we'll see what the number shows this morning. treasury ten-year yield at 2.586. all eyes on that. the projections of interest rate increases from the fed and janet yellen's news conference. ahead of that, the u.s. dollar has been a mixed bagger. weaker against the japanese yen, 114.616789 also weaker against the euro. the pound bounces back from yesterday's slide, a half percent there. now to the top political story, the white house confirming president trump paid $38 million in federal income tax in 2005. this after msnbc's rachel maddow's show reporting having two pages of the tax returns. tracie potts joins us from washington with the whole story. >> good morning. it was a quick turnaround from the white house. they had a statement how the responding to this before we even reported it criticizing the media for putting the return out there. but also saying it proves that the president paid his fair share. $38 million, that's what president trump paid in taxes in 2005. according to this return mailed to former "new york times" reporter david k. johnston revealed by msnbc's rachel madow. his income, more than 150 million with 1$100 million writeoff for business losses making his effective tax rate 25%. >> that's a 20% discount on your taxes. would you like a 20% discount on your taxes? that's what donald trump got. >> in a statement the white house said the president had a responsibility to pay no more tax than legally required. >> he didn't pay any federal income tax. >> that makes me smart. >> reporter: during the campaign mr. trump promised to release his returns after an audit. the president facing tax questions today as he hes to michigan to announce he's rolling back obama fuel standards and to national to push the republican healthcare plan. >> the president's goal is to make healthcare insurance affordable for everybody. >> trumpcare has been public for one week now. is there anyone left in the country who likes it? >> reporter: the congressional budget office says 24 million people would lose coverage. >> fewer old people buying insurance, the people who buy insurance buy skimpier numbers. >> reporter: in costs on healthcare and the president's texas, with democrats challenging both. the luxury retailer a joining the flock on wall street in another highly anticipated initial public offering. landon dowdy has more. >> the blizzard of 2017 may be a perfect back drop for canada goose, the maker of high-end parkas to go public. the retailer, which sells $1,000 coats, is set to price its ipo this afternoon. canada goose is seeking to raise more than 2$220 million, offerig 20 million shares for $10 to $12 each. some major risks for the business, the cost of expanding into new markets, competition and the brand. canada goose has been targeted by the people of the ethical treatment of animals over the use of fur in its jackets. the toronto based company is majority owned by bane capital. shares will be trading tomorrow under the ticker goose, goos on the stock exchange. >> remember when we were in davos, they were wearing the canada goose. >> the smart davos version of the coat. i was kind of jealous. >> they are popular, they're all over the streets of new york. >> you literally see them everywhere. another ipo set to debut today. the ardagh group priced its offering at $19 a share near the top end of the expected range raising more than 3$300 million. shares will trade under the symbol ard. ardagh has been making heineken's iconic green beer bottles for 25 years and also counts l'oreal and coca-cola as its clients. the heineken bottal is a stand-out. >> recognizable? >> feels great in the hand. the liquid coming out of it tastes great. >> you're a beer drinker, even at 5:30 in the morning. 5:36. >> reed ofman wihoffman will be microsoft's board and working on he arrested fi artificial intelligence. and merck's keytruda has won fd approval for treating blood cancer. gap naming mark breitbard as the new head of banana republic. shares of the parent company gap unchanged. some more stocks to watch. hostess drandbrands seeing q4 s increase. no move in the stock price today. toshiba says it would consider a sale of westinghouse. the company didn't offer clarity on whether they would proceed with a chapter 11 filing for the u.s. nuclear unit. toshiba down again 12%. time for top trending stories. mark zuckerberg getting a nascar driving lesson from dale earnhardt jr. the pair hitting 170 miles per hour on the speedway with zuckerberg exclaiming what a crazy experience, this is amazing chlg. >> 170 miles per hour, i didn't realize nascar was that fast. almost entering f1 levels. the first official love actually reunion trailer has been released. the trailer paying tribute to the iconic queue card scene in the film and features actor andrew lincoln who will resume his role of mark. take a look. ♪ god only knows what i'd be without you ♪ ♪ ♪ god only knows what i'd be without you ♪ ♪ ♪ god only knows what i'd be without you ♪ ♪ god only knows what i'd be without you ♪ >> my god, i can't wait. just having the music again got me excited. the reunion in honor of red nose day debuts march 24th, almost the whole lineup of cast is back. >> it's one thing we agree on. we disagree on a lot to of things. but we both love "love actually" probably more than any other movie. >> mutually. not quite my favorite of all time. just fantastic. around christmastime, the best movie around. around red nose day -- >> the cue card scene is very famous. >> he's still in his waking the dead sort of get up of beard an long hair. i thought he could have shaved hymn up and done it on a c himself up and done it on a cobblestone very exciting. "snl" will be airing four half hour episodes of its weekend update sketch this summer beginning august 10th at 9:00 p.m. eastern time. does it not usually air in the summer? >> it doesn't have its own show, segment. but it was on hiatus, so they'll keep the weekend update going. they have so much material. they're having the best season in years. the iditarod wrapping up yesterday in alaska. mitch seavey crossed the finish line first for his third win, beating out his own son, dallas, the defending champion. seavey is the oldest winner in the race's history at 5 . >> iditarod, dog racing. >> here is a look at where the european markets stand. stay tuned, there's more cnbc. a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley (elated) woooooo!!! life looks great with tampax pearl. you get ultimate protection on your heaviest days and smooth removal for your lightest. tampax pearl power over periods. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for our must-read stories. my pick is in the financial times. it's titled erdogan picks a fight in his bid for autocracy. not the only votes are in holland, france and germany, there's a referendum in turkey, once that will enhance erdogan's constitutional powers. this is a summary of the situation there, what it might mean for the sort of plans of stability in the region and is front and center at the moment because of the attempts he's made to put his ministers in places like holland and germany in terms of gathering support for the people that could vote for him. important thing to note, it's not as much on our agenda as some other european elections, but important for stability in the region and the migration crisis. >> i thought it was interesting that steve sedgwick joining us this mning said this rift that's developed between the far-right candidate and turkey inside the netherlands is moving the polls there. so much awareness from the population. >> absolutely right. it's very much an item on the agenda in europe and across the region. i think something to keep an eye on for us. >> mine is on healthcare again. still topic dejour in washington. this is an op-ed written by vick roy, an adviser to a lot to of republicans. this is the gop talking points, issuing why they still believe this is the best way. this particular point focuses on medicaid. it's titled medicaid is free, why does it require a mandate? the ahca would put medicaid on a budget, increasing medicaid spending for beneficiary at the same rate as the medical component of the consumer price index. this is not a far-right concept. president clinton first proposed reforming medicaid this way back in 1995 as an alternative to the gop idea of block grants. the 1996 law ended up including neither provision. something that a lot of republicans are talking about this idea that they're getting a lot of heat for reducing expansion of medicaid, particularly among members of their own party, in states like arkansas which has benefited from the expansion of medicaid, refuting the idea, a signal that republicans think it's workable and they are happy about the cbo score, which points to the deficit reduction which they need for this budget reconciliation, and that some assumptions being made about the number of uninsured versus obamacare can't be trusted and are wrong. something this op-ed gets at. >> i think that was an issue yesterday. yesterday we had lower volumes, that accentuated a loss. it was a factor again, bringing into question are we going to get the trump agenda delivered? how long will it take. still to come, when we come back, we'll get you ready for the big fed decision. we have john silvia joining us after the break. as we head to break, a reminder of today's national weather report from jackie juras. good morning. the remnants of winter storm stella continue to impact parts of the northeast, mainly snow into the interior spotteds along with some lake-effect snows as well. was you will notice more than anything else is the strong winds thank you the day. we could get a few flurries in new york city, the wins making the temperatures feel cold. a new storm system will bring rain into places like seattle and portland, and quiet conditions expected across the nation's midsection, but just kind of cold. the heat will build across the rockies and deep south but we'll stay chilly east of the mississippi river. feels-like temperatures in the teens in the northeast throughout most of the day today and likely into the 20s and 30s throughout the southeast. we'll be right back. lling some . my dad gave me those shares, you know? he ran that company. i get it. but you know i think you own too much. gotta manage your risk. and you've gotta switch to decaf. an honest opinion, even if you disagree. with 14,000 financial advisors it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. you won't see these folks they have businesses to run. they have passions to pursue. how do they avoid trips to the post office? stamps.com mail letters, ship packages, all the services of the post office right on your computer. get a 4 week trial, plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get up to speed on the market action. u.s. futures at this hour pointing higher by 0.2% around 36 points for the dow. the dow was down by around about that much yesterday. the s&p and the nasdaq down about a third of a percent. oil was a big factor yesterday. let's look at oil prices. they have been on a slide over the last week or two. yesterday they lost about 2%. they're bouncing back today by about 2%. 48.6. that's a big reason why we saw u.s. futures pointing higher because of oil's rebound. the other thing to watch is the ten-year treasury note, all of the yield curve in light of the fed meeting. we've seen the short end of the curve pick up over the last week and stay there. we've seen the ten-year pick up and move down depending on the news headlines of the day. this morning the ten-year treasury note is just below that 2.6 level. it's finally here. the fed expected to raise interest rates for the second time since december. third time since the financial crisis. fomc policy decision due at 2:00 p.m. eastern time along with the fed's economic projection. cnbc will be all over it this afternoon. joining us now with a preview, john silvia from wells fargo securities. good morning. >> good morning. >> we are widely expecting the fed to raise interest rates. where is the big mysteries this afternoon? >> i'll follow up on your earlier discussion with the dot plot. the dot plot that taken on more significance for two reasons. one, it shifted up rather than staying down. and second i think the market is more convinced that the fed will follow that dot plot. and the major factor here is the inflation trend. we have had a kick up in inflation, and the question is will that inflation kick up continue going forward or will it sort of flatten out? that's the difference i think between most people with three or four rate increases. i would watch the fed's commentary with respect to inflation. >> john, is it plausible that we could get 50 basis points today? >> i don't think so. i think that would shock the marketplace. i think that's a fairly aggressive move from the fed's point of view, especially give wlan we discu n what we have just discussed. and the challenge dealing with the bank of england, the ecb and bank of japan and finally china is the dollar impact of a 50 basis point increase would be pretty significant. it would create uncertainty in the marketplace. >> not to mention bring potentially the federal reserve into the political realm, something that janet yellen has effectively avoided. the question is how much longer she can continue to do so if they do pick up the pace of rate hikes. >> i think it would be increasingly difficult. by the time we get to the mid year fed report, they'll have one increase maybe in march, maybe a second in june. it will increasingly become a political issue. as you know, the per sception i you didn't change interest rates that much when president obama was in office, now you're raising interest rates with president trump in office. it appears as though you're going down that election period where there was that discussion about the fed. >> let's talk about the yield curve. the shorter end of the curve responded to this rising likelihood of a hike today. once we get the hike behind us and the dot plots moving forward, will we see the yield curve steepen back up again or is this flattening going to continue? >> i would say it continues because there's not a lot of conviction in the marketplace that long-term growth nor long-term inflation would justify a much higher 10 or 30-year interest rate. so it really is that long-term expectation that really has not moved. short-term we're looking at the dot plot. long-term, what is our potential growth rate in the u.s.? still about 2%, 2.25%. if we start to see moves in the dots, which means the fed is changing the number of rate increases it's expecting to four from three, which is a question for wall street economists, how much does that matter for investors? will that be a big deal? does that put the rally -- does that bring the rally to a halt for stocks? >> for certain stocks certainly. now you're talking about a stronger dollar relative to other currencies, now you're talking about that trade deficit, much more difficult to export. you'll see a lot more imports coming in the trade df seficit l continue to get longer. for international investors, the val you'll of the assets in terms of the dollar itself could be lower. then second, it certainly will impact companies, especially in machines, machine tools, any kind of capital goods that we do ek por export a lot as well as agriculture. yes, it's important for those industries. >> john, just to round things off, oil prices have slipped over the course of the last week or two. does that increase your outlook for the u.s. economy? does it make growth easier or is it not a factor? >> it makes growth easier but also reinforces the point that we only get three increases this year, not four. inflation jumped up a bit but not a sustained increase over time. >> one more as well in terms of the u.s. dollar, are we going to get a bullish response from this 25 basis point hike or not unless we see significant forecasts for further hikes? >> no. i think you'll get a bullish response simply because of more conviction that the fed has the path correctly, and there is better u.s. economic growth. >> john silvia of wells fargo securities, thank you very much for joining us. we have a full minute left. oil prices certainly in the spotlight. we are bouncing back today. that's why we're seeing gains in europe, mixed session in asia before it closed. the fed certainly in focus. >> fed front and center, oil prices as well. they have been moving a lot on the u.s. inventory data. we'll get that report today at 10:30 a.m. eastern time. last week, we saw a surprise build and oil started to move sharply lower. last night we got an inventory report showing a surprise draw down, now oil is rising again. it's weighing on the market. >> the fed, 2:00 p.m. the press conference at 2:30 p.m. all tof live of it live on cnbc. stay confident for over 75 years. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. bp engineered a fleet of 32 brand new ships with advanced technology, so we can make sure oil and gas get where they need to go safely. because safety is never being satisfied. and always working to be better. good morning. ready, set, hike! i get it. the fed widely expected to raise interest rates at today's meeting. will janet yellen then though drop hints about more aggressive moves for the rest of the year? tax day for the white house. parts of president trump's tax return form from 2005 were leaked. turns out he paid $38 million in taxes on income of 1$150 millio. and charges are expected today in the massive yahoo hacking case of millions of accounts. beware the ides of march. it is wednesday, march 15, 2017. happy birthday, scotty. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. u.s. equity futures this morning, after a pull back yesterday, you can see u.s. equity futures are indicated higher. dow futures up by 47 points. s&p futures up by 6.5 points. the nasdaq up by 11. this is all coming on fed day today. today is the day we get the decision from janet yellen. news conference follows after that. in asia overnight, markets were relatively tame. nikkei and hang seng dow