Opec meeting but production levels are set to remain unchanged despite talk that saudi was pushing for some form of production cuts. Uber launching another funding round that could value the company at 64. 5 billion. This makes them worth more than 80 of the s p 500 companies. A very good morning to you. Oil prices are treading water ahead of todays opec meeting in vienna. Steve is there with an update. Thank you. Dont worry if i appear d distracted. Another minister coming in to the meeting. The iranians already arrived and this could be an incredibly contentious meeting despite the fact that were not expecting a change in production levels. 30 Million Barrels a day is what the group says it produces but it actually produces around 31. 5 Million Barrels a day and people are concerned theyre creating some form of disequilibrium in the market creating an oversupply on the market here at opec and globally as well which is driving prices ever lower as well. Theres doomsday scenarios in term of what the producers are looking for. Its currently double that but the real concerns that the equilibrium and stabilization many are hoping for just wont happen if we continue to see oversupply. It was a year ago the saudis said we are not going to be the price stablers. Well try to get former market share because a lot of things changed structurally in this industry. Changes like shell, iran and iraq coming back in some fashion and concern about whats going on in paris and cop21. You mentioned iran but whats the wildcard for 2016. Which producer could be one of the swing producers if you will coming back online. Is it libya . Is it iran . What are you hearing . I think you make a very good point, carolyn. Its not just about the iranian oil. Surely people have factored that into their forward models. It remains to be seen. We know they got the oil in the ground. They just need to get the money in and those International Oil companies in to get it out of the ground. They have reserves that could knock on the door of 150 Million Barrels of oil. The libyans at their peak could produce 2 Million Barrels a day now producing under half a Million Barrels a day. They could put a half a million, maybe a Million Barrels on the table if they can sort out their situation. A lot of other factors in here as well. You have the russians producing over 10 Million Barrels a day and if price were to move higher, 50, maybe further north than that, the taps can be turned on quickly as well. Theres a whole host of issues that even if saudi were to get some form of organized cuts other people desperate for those petro dollars and revenue will put the revenue and the oil back on the table again. This has been financially very punative as oil has fallen from 100 down to 40 barrel. They have lost around about half a trillion dollars. Half a trillion dollars of petro currency. How are you markets looking . More red than green so far today. Continuing the losses from yesterday but much less pronounced losses. Were down by. 3 in the stoxx 600. As we know, sharp, sharp declines yesterday after mario draghi underwhelmed. When you consider how much of a run up we have seen over the last couple of years its unsurprising that markets moved 3 . Up 12 in october, 5 in november so 3 decline. Big for one day and put that in perspective. Ftse 100 down today. It was down yesterday but less than the rest of continental europe. Euro dollar is where most of the action was yesterday. 3 swings during the course of the day. We briefly touched the 109 handle. Were now close to that once again. 105 excuse me, 10883. Were off. 5 today so its just undoing a little bit of the bounce back yesterday but in terms of explaining how much of a crowded trade that weak euro, strong dollar had been we saw that with the bounce back of euro strength yesterday when mario draghi only cut rates by 10 basis points. Could it be so what overdone . Mario draghi justified his actions despite decent among some board members. Were doing more because it works. Not because it fails. We want to consolidate something thats been a success. Lets get out to julia standing by in frankfurt. We were reminded by two things yesterday. First of all, mario draghi is mortal after all and second of all hes bound by consensus. I think your second point is very relevant. Of course it has to be a consensus that they try to find. They try to find a majority and thats what they got and they dont need further stimulus at this point. It also shows the problem of managing extremely vigorous expectations yesterday and he couldnt match up to it and this was the question we were asking the whole way through. As you said it underwhel med the market and it wasnt trivial what he did. We got the extension to the qe program. An additional 360 billion euros worth of bond purchases. He extended to local and Government Debt so were looking at the german angle in particular as well. He did cut the deposit rate 10 basis points and when i pushed him to say is that it, he refused to answer. If we read between the lines perhaps theres more options this as well. We also got the news that hes going to reinvest the proceeds to buy more bonds going forward. I just wonder if that was assumed anyway given what we have seen from the fed and the bank of england too but the real disappointment is we didnt see the step up in the monthly purchases and i tackled him on that as well. I said was that talked about . Was it considered . And are you admitting in some way here that theres diminishing marginal benefits when bond yields are so low . And he said to me all the options still remain on the table so despite what he did yesterday trying to make the point that, hook, weve still got weapons in the arsenal effectively here and we can make moves if ultimately theyre needed. Who do you think was gagged yesterday . Who was restrained from how they would have liked to act in an ideal world . Was mario draghi despite him trying to have justified what he did . Would he have liked to have done more or was it the other way around . Was it incredible that he managed to push through what he did given the strength of opposition from the germans amongst others . All about consensus. There were enough on the governing council to allow him to push through census. Its about the marginal benefit or increase he was allowed to provide in this point in particular. We know that it was very clear that he wasnt happy even with what was done but i think perhaps the bigger question here is why has the market lead over the last month if there was a recognition that as far as the germans were concerned, there were five on the governing council that werent happy with this decision, why was the market allowed to be lead to the brief that there was going to be more stimulus than was achieved . Perhaps well ask the Vice President when i speak to him in, what, just over an hours tile. Certainly plenty of questions on the events of the last 24 hours guys. Ill pick up with him shortly. Back to you. Thank you for that. Meantime, i want to bring you some flashes coming through from the opec meeting in vienna. The Saudi Oil Minister saying the opec production quota is there. Theres no disagreement anywhere, he says, and were willing to cooperate with anyone that helps pal the markets. So really reiterating his stance that reports flushed out earlier this week. He says everybody is welcome to go into the market. Now i also want to move on to some of the comments coming from the nigerian oil minister. They expect oil prices to stabilize next year. Theyre forecasting 2016 oil output to average 2. 2 to 2. 4 Million Barrels a day. Still to come on the show, surely uber has to be one of the most Disruptive Tech companies over the past decade. No doubt about it. More money, more problems, maybe . Well tell you which start up is valued higher than 80 of the companies of the s p 500. I think i just gave eightway the it away there. But its still coming up. [sfx bell] [burke] its easy to buy insurance and forget about it. But the more you learn about your coverage, the more gaps you may find. [burke] like how you thought you were covered for this. [man] its a profound statement. [burke] but youre not even covered for this. An] its a profound statement. [burke] or how you may be covered for this. [burke] but not for Something Like this. [burke] talk to farmers and see what gaps could be hiding in your coverage. [sfx yeti noise] we are farmers bum pa dum, bum bum bum bum big day . Ah, the usual. Moved some new cars. Hauled a bunch of steel. Kept the supermarket shelves stocked. Made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. Whats up for the next shift . Ah, nothing much. Just keeping the lights on. laugh nice. Doing the big things that move an economy. See you tomorrow, mac. See you tomorrow, sam. Just another day arfolk southern. Hi, everybody. Welcome back. Youre watching worldwide exchange. With us to discuss whats been going on over the last 24 hours with regards to the ecb, were joined by the mixed income strategist at ubs. Were joined by mike bell. Good morning, and from denmark, the fx strategist. Thank you to kick off with you. We went from somewhere in the region of 105. 23 to were now at 109 something. This reaction, is it an overreaction to what we saw yesterday . Is it just a bit of year end finnicing before we trade out . Theres some of that. You can tell the positioning was the wrong way around and the move was probably bigger than you would have seen ordinarily because of the time of year, liquidity and expectations so whether it came as a surprise or not is the big question and well have to see how they respond to the mix. What do you think . I dont think it was no reaction. This is one of the most remarkable communication break downs weve seen in modern market history. Its so dependent on signals and we have a clear drum beet of noise coming into this meeting and we did not get something big. We got a disappointment across all points that we were expecting movement on. I think theres the risk of the further reaction in the Euro Dollar Exchange rate if the data doesnt particularly surprise to the upside. Do you agree with that . Do you think that there was a break down in communication on part of the ecb over the last five or six weeks or so . Yeah, mario draghi said they would do what they must to get inflation up as quick as possible and clearly disappoint. The market was expecting a 10 basis point cut and perhaps more. The market was hoping they were going to get more than just the 60 billion a month. Maybe 70 or 80 billion a month. Not doing that was a disappointment. I want to get back out to you. The 105, 106 handle many are targeting toward the end of the year, do you still think thats intact . Well, we need to see the u. S. Jobs report and how the fed issues its first hike. Ironically this does free up the fed to be a little bit less cautious in its forward guy lance because its not worried about the dollar higher toward parity but the risk is does this trigger greater derev rajing because we have a key signal being sent and assumptions were one way and we saw quite a melt down yesterday so this extends into the year in. Theres a risk we could trade through 110, 111 euro dollar, why not. Yesterday we heard mario draghi say the conclusions of our policies have been effective. These are adequate to achieve our objectives. He was trying to echo the sentiment that thus far things are improving and apart from inflation data things have improved so with this extra rate cut, the extension of the Bond Buying Program will there be enough traction to improve the fundamental economy . Data has been improving but its interesting to see this reaction in the markets to see peoples response to yesterday. Its eased policy dramatically into an improving economic situation. So well have to wait and see but if the data does keep picking up arguably there isnt need for them to do nil. We have to see how we go. Can we be positive into the year end after yesterdays correction . Relative to recent months of course it performed very well. Its probably just a healthy pause for breath and we dont think this is the start of an upward trend in the euro. The euro will move lower from here. Positioning going into yesterday was very extended. Now the euro can probably go further down and that should be european equities. When we look at yields around europe are there any countries in particular that stand out for you . Particularly after yesterdays moves in terms of where our yield pick up, perhaps relative to the german bond market is attack tif . Its the german bond market itself where we see the biggest move. Recovery is gaining traction in the euro zone. The safe haven bid that disto distorted yields to a degree could fade away. We thaw think thats probably the end of it and over the course of the next year you could see yields on core bonds start to rise. Thank you very much for now. Well be back to all three of our guests just shortly. Meantime were getting more and more interesting comments out of opec and vienna. Now the Saudi Oil Minister says the report of the saudi cut proposal is baseless. Once again he reiterates this report is baseless. He says its not true. There is a saudi lead proposal to cut output and theres been so much discussion this week as to whether there was going to be a change of heart on the part of the saudis but theyre now saying these reports are baseless. Lets move on because the u. S. Job growth is likely slowing in november but not enough to hike rates later this month. Were still looking at 200,000. November jobs report is out at 8 30 a. M. Eastern time. As said, forecasts are looking for this print of 200,000 jobs being carey crated during the month versus the 271,000 we saw in october. Unemployment Holding Steady at 5 . Fed chair janet yellen is down playing the significance of todays jobs report as a factor whether to raise rates. Testifying before congress on thursday the u. S. Labor market made substantial progress since the recession with unemployment dropping from 10 to 5 . We want to see the economy being on a path where well continue to erode the labor market slack overtime so well be looking very carefully at that but we cant overweight any particular number. We need to be looking at trends in the data. I want to kick things off with you talking about janet yellen there. What do you do this morning . How do you change your positions . Its very difficult because what you have seen here, the main driver of euro dollar lower has been dramatic policy diver je divergence but the its up to the dollar side of things and the fed to do the heavy lifting its putting it quite higher now. So while longer term i havent changed my dollar upside view were faced with challenges here on the positive dollar story unless we get really dramatic data. How much more divergence are we going to be seeing in terms of treasury and bund yields . We did see the 20 basis point pop in bund yields. That has been narrowing. If we do expect that hike largely priced in by the fed were not going to be seeing too Much Movement in terms of the treasury yield curve. No, in fact that narrows further. Its been widening dramatically for recent months for some of the reasons we touched on speculation around the european bond markets. We think the treasury yields probably start to level out and bund yields continue to rise. So that can contract quite significantly over the next year or so. But surely though now given the euro dollar move. Were risk about the strong dollar and what theyre starting to do. Clearly had yesterday gone in the other direction and euro dollar was at 103 it would make the Communication Task difficult next week. This will give them some relief. Were looking at draghis comments up to an event like this. I always find it interesting if we think his comments are hawkish or dovish or just in between. Were they really that dovish . Are are we thinking we the market got it wrong . No perhaps there was a split at what should be rolled out at this meeting. Perhaps he would have liked to have done more but he has to send out the opinion of the governing council so i dont think the market got it wrong. The market played its hand very aggressively coming into this meeting but this truly was a communication break down. A real shocker for the market and the move was fully justified in terms of where we were in expectations and what we saw delivered yesterday. Why did u. S. Equities react negatively yesterday . Because surely this announcement only made it easier for risk assets to take a u. S. Rate hike in their stride because the u. S. Dollar strength part of their bargain is less strong now. I think equity markets tend to move very rarely. You see a sharp fall of 3 in the euro zone and then the u. S. Market up. It wasnt as sharp as you saw in europe and theres a chance youll get good jobs numbers out today then the u. S. Equity market can do okay. Does parity in the euro dollar go away for full time . Is it never going to be here . I dont think so. If we look further into 2016 we see enough diver jens here. The ecb is in an easing stance doing qe. But it doesnt destroy the longer term story but it has made us hook at our 1 to 3 month forecast and question them for now. How are you repositioning your fixed income strategy right now . Any changes after that shock . Its a bit of a sigh of relief. We think the euro zone is going to recouple over the next year or so so the move wes have been seeing until yesterday were the ones we were worried about. The correction weve seen now which could go further is something we have been calling for really. But surely the fed cant only be looking at the nonfarm payroll data for today. We had a strong print the month before november. What would a disappointing print be today . 150 . 100 . The payrolls is always so volatile i would be surprised if they paid much attention to it on the day. Precisely. The earnings is the big th g thing. Thats what needs to keep accelerating whatever they might be doing. They want to see evidence theyre tightening up so when they hike they feel confidence. Thank you, gentlemen. Fixed income strategist at ubs. Global Market Strategist at jp morgan chase. 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