Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150918 : compareme

Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150918

Markets. The dow swings 300 points. But todays futures are pointing to higher open. A vote could throw the imme menation of the bailout in doubt. Japanese stocks closing in the red despite optimism for the bank of japan. Growth is returning but they will keep a watchful eye on china. The reaction by european stocks this morning is a negative one as you can see. Were seeing red particularly in italy down 1. 34. Now the reaction was sort of simulate yesterday in the u. S. We didnt see a rally, certainly. It was sort of mixed to down and we are expecting a bounce back today for u. S. Equities. The dow expected to open up about 10 basis points. S p similar and the nasdaq just above flat. For this negative reaction weve seen in europe and the u. S. Since the fed meeting yesterday bear in mind that were still in positive territory for the week as a whole and follows stronger performance last week as well. Yesterday a big bounce of volatility toward the end of trade after we saw the fed move but only finishing down hardly a massive move. Lets look at the dollar index as well. That was a clear move down as we got that decision and both the markets had seemed to start to price in a possible hike during the last week or so. Thus we did see the weakening to a tune of about a percent late yesterday. A similar story there as well particularly the two year note. We had seen yields tick up to a four year high and we did see a move down in that. 0. 67 period at the moment and it had got close to 2. 3 before the fed failed to hike so have they assigned themselves a third mandate . Chair janet yellen explained her concerns for the health of Economic Activity outside of the u. S. The outlook abroad appears to have become more uncertain as of late and heightened concerns about growth in china and other emerging market economies have lead to notable volatility in financial markets. The furthering depreciation of the dollar and spreads tightened overall financial conditions to some extent. These developments may restrain u. S. Economic activity some what and are likely to put further downward pressure on inflation in the near term. Chair janet yellen was cautious in her language when it came to indicating when a rate hike might actually come saying that uncertainty remained around the strength of the recovery. We recognize that there has been a great deal of focus on todays policy decision. The recovery from the Great Recession has advanced sufficiently far and domestic spending appears sufficiently robust that an argument can be made for a rise in Interest Rates at this time. We discussed this possibility at our meeting. However, in light of the heightened uncertainties abroad and as slightly softer expected path for inflation, the committee judged it appropriate to wait for more evidence including further improvement in the labor market to bolster confidence that inflation might rise to 2 . The morning after this much anticipated Rate Decision i think i have seen every joke and anlage surrounding doves. Like prince. This is what it sounds like when doves cry. Exactly. Lots of these anlages out there but bottom line for me they choked. Completely and utterly joked and they really did bring in the international, the third man dane. I think this is a sign that they just dont have enough confidence in what qe achieved or we would have seen a hike. Theyre also talking about this negative feedback loop when it comes to exports. A stronger u. S. Dollar, earnings declines and moderate expansion but its interesting because one hand they were giving and one hand they were taking away. That economic recovery has been surprising strongly. A agree with you. I dont understand what the hesitation is right now. But adding to that i wonder if its pointless looking at the numbers right now. The mathematics and economics of it all arent whats making their decisions. Its a psychology now. Its hard for us to know what theyre thinking on that level. Obviously, china, the International Situation but for me, more of what is effecting them is this idea of what europe and japan might be doing. Theyve had easing so long and theyrer the pied about what might happen when they come off of it. We might see more easing elsewhere which would accentuate it domestically. I think thats the issue and steve mentioned what he said this morning about hotel california, you can check out any time you want but you cant leave. They havent got confidence that qe achieved enough in the fundamental economy such that it can stand on its own two feet. I feel like the market is disappointed. Theyre wondering when exactly when are the conditions right for the first Interest Rate hike in nine years and when you look at some of the fomc predictions out there we had a doubling of fomc members pushing out the hiking curve and normalization beyond 2015, what does that say . People are lacking confidence. They didnt get a idea that they had fundamental outlook and enough to hike i think. Weve seen everyone push it back. Particularly when people were expecting september or at least certain that wed get december and that china volatility made everybody push it back a bit but the market itself clearly moved yesterday and some people were expecting a hike and didnt get it. Speaking of china, its interesting that one central bank is criticizing another central bank because in the press conference janet yellen was highlighting the lack of deafness from beijing authorities. Should you be going out to criticize others. If i was yellen i wouldnt be going there. Thats what i think. The debate wages on as to when the fed will pull the figure. They speak about their move. They have been pitching it for so long and basically promised 2015. I would say yes. What they want to do is start to renormalize to move that the United States and perhaps the Global Economy is standing on wobbly two legs but standing none the less so i think theyre going to go. What i think is important though is theyre not going to go very fast and very far. I also think its important here that december is a possibility still as long as the u. S. Economy does hold up. That will make a big difference if the consumer continues to charge ahead and that could bring the doves off that and chair yellen really discounted that. Theres not that much data that happens between now and then. I think youre pointing toward a december move. So one former fed official told cnbc why he thought it was a mistake not to hike this month. If we have calm global situation, why not october . I think it should have been september but october is next best and december if not october. I think it will be this year. She keeps saying that, i believe her. Joining us now is the global macro strategist at jp morgan asset management. Right decision or wrong decision . Right decision. I disagree with what you said. The domestic conditions are not in place to hike Interest Rates. They did mention the inflation condition in the statement for me the weakness of price pressures already in exist answer the plus another route in Commodities Plus the fee from headline into the core will make it unlikely that inflation is going to be where they want it to be and that was always the main reason not to hike. The dollar is high on a trade rated basis. A lot of income has sold off. Its simply the conditions to raise capital for businesses in america have worsened and also thirdly id say yes we made a lot of progress on the labor market but nobody knows what full employment is. I suspect it is well below 5 . I suspect that the committee is coming around to that view now and one of the most interesting things we saw is changes in the longterm projections for where they are. They continue to rachet down. Were getting to an understanding where well see a lot tighter labor market if we get pressure there. If we look back to a year and two years and the messages they were giving them. Unemployment has to fall below 6. 5 and growth has to be at a certain level, we crossed those targets a couple of times already and every time we get to thinking theyre confident enough to hike they dont and now the signals perhaps arent giving markets encouragement because even the people that love qe are saying its not doing enough. The thresholds they gave were not magic vines. They believed that growth conditions would be stronger. They made forecasting errors. A lot of people did. They got there and realized the world wasnt the way they thought and reevaluated. What else do you want them to do . Of course they had to reevaluate and change their mind. China is slowing, economies are falling off a cliff. The whole nature of how labor bargains in the western world has been altered by a collapse in unionization rates and an understanding of the weakness of labor. This changed the calculation on how robust and how strong inflation is going to be. Arent they changing the play book . Theres two mandates that govern Monetary Policy. Its inflation and employment. Were at full employment. I disagree. 5. 1 . Thats at their target they stated. Its near term deflation that theyre saying these are near term factors. They have racheted down their full employment estimates consistently. They have been wrong. They keep moving the goal post. Full employment is 5. 5 and now its 5. 1 . Were still not there. Full employment is whenever you start to get robust wage growth. Everyone is talking about it on the inflation side of the mandate. Thats not the most important point about it. Thats actually the most important thing. I would say that, you know, the economy has changed and theyre changing their circumstances. I dont think were going to get a rate hike in october. I dont think that either the Global Conditions they cited nor the massive undershoot in inflation on going. Thats the biggest credibility there. Its been too low for years. Massively low and they hike into that environment. I think potentially you could get in in december but you need to see a turn around in domestic inflationary conditions to target that. We did have a big correction in august but are we seeing enough Earnings Growth after a five or six year qe rally . No, were not because its been massively impacted by lower oil and weve seen the stronger dollar and that hurt the exporters and multinationals as well. Thats two temporary hits. Oil can stay low. The dollar can stay strong but its a flow thing into the earnings side of things. We think youre going to get low double digit Earnings Growth next year. Thats one of the reasons we think this market will continue on. Thank you for joining us. Lets check in on whats happening when it comes to Government Bond yields. We had yields coming down along with a two year note because they didnt do anything and looks like they pushed up their expectations to possibly next year in 2016. Tracking what we saw last night. Let me bring that up for you in the u. K. Guilt. Bond prices going up and yields coming down. Were not going to get any tightening when it comes to Monetary Policy and we did have a sell off taking place in japan. It was a relatively positive session and maybe there are concerns about what happens in china and how that riels through markets around the world and japan. Let me show you the rest of the Market Action as you see some gains. Lets talk about asia. We have sri joining us from singapore tracking the reaction to the fed how long is this bounce going to be sustained for is the big question when you have structural problems over here and you have growth concerns over here as well. Touched upon by janet yellen during the fed press conference and that statement, remember . So because we have seen status quo in terms of policy that gives emerging market assets something of a respite. The fed did flag a number of issue with the Global Economy. China was front and center. They see weaker Global Growth so thats going to effect us over here and if things are going to get worse thats going to sour sentiment over here furthermore as well. Now one of the benefits of risk aversion is going to continue to be the safe haven japanese yen and when we saw the dollar being undermined we saw it going into the yen and that undermind the sentiment toward others. Bringing down the broader nikkei by about 2 at the settlement. Thats where we stand. Back to you. Thank you for that. Sticking with china, new home prices up 0. 3 in august. The fourth straight month of dpans he dp gains helped by Government Support efforts. In beijing, prices were up 3 . Were going to go to break here on Worldwide Exchange. Coming up on the program, greece shae is heading to the polls for the third time this year. Are the people fed one politics . Well cross out to athens where julia has the latest. Also further approval for the Heart Failure drug. Well go live to speak to the companys ceo and sidneys amazing cafe culture. We find out what the purrfect weekend looks like for australias animal lovers. Many wrinkle creams come with high hopes, but hope. Doesnt work on wrinkles. Clinically proven neutrogena® rapid wrinkle repair with the fastest retinol formula available, it works on fine lines and even deep wrinkles. Youll see younger looking skin in just one week. Stop hoping for results, and start seeing them. Rapid wrinkle repair. And for dark spots rapid tone repair. From neutrogena®. Then dont miss sleep trains want youbest rest event. . Youll find sleep trains very best mattresses at the guaranteed lowest price. Plus, pay no interest for three years on beautyrest black, stearns foster, serta icomfort, even tempurpedic. And rest even better with sleep trains riskfree 100day money back guarantee. Get your best rest ever from sleep train. Guaranteed sleep train your ticket to a better nights sleep announcer babies who are talked to from the time theyre born. Are more likely to have a successful future. Talking and reading to children in their first years has a huge impact on what they do with the rest of their lives. The fewer words they hear, the greater their chances of dropping out of school and getting into trouble. Talk. Read. Sing. Your words have the power to shape their world. Learn more at first5california. Com parents croatia has blocked off seven of its main road crossings in serbia in an attempt to limit the number of migrants entering the country. The country is full and it has advised migrants to stay away but despite these measures reports suggest that refugees continue to find routes into the country and in response we also have hungary beginning work on a wall to close off its border with croatia. The Council President will host a summit of eu leaders next week and this is an attempt to find some sort of resolution to the on going migrant crisis. Meantime, reports suggest that russia is applying new types of air and ground weapons to the syrian military. Members of the International Community expressed alarm over russias support for the assad regime. The izraeli Prime Minister is set to meet with putin next week to discuss the issue. Greece is gearing up to vote for a new government this weekend with many voters still undecided. Lets get out to julia. She is live in athens with a preview, julia. Thanks so much, wilfred. Too close to call according to the polls. The question is are voters just too weary, too sick of elections and votes in this country to even bother going to the polls. The morning papers, really interesting, just 48 hours for some 650,000 greeks to decide which way theyre going to vote. Were talking 10 of the voting population. I can break this down for you more. 20 of the voeting population either undecided here or going to be voting for parties that might not get into parliament after this vote takes place on sunday. I think that really does show you just how it lays. A lot of people here im talking to, particularly young people that were so instrumental back in january on the votes also saying they just dont know how to decide and saying actually given the agreement on the third bailout deal it doesnt really matter whether new democracy or a syriza win because theyve got no choice. Theyll have to follow the Bailout Program particularly over the reforms in the next couple of months. The question is how committed though are either to actually winning this election. I spoke to nick, he is the editor and had some interesting things to say not just about voters but also about the different leaders of the two main parties. Listen in. Its the election no one wants to win and no one wants to vote in either. Theres a school of thought that syriza would prefer to be in opposition because it could then refer to its antibailout, antiausterity stance. So they may have shrugged off the leftest platform. Those people that were against europe, against the Bailout Program. But has that made it any easier . It still could be very difficult. I spoke to a member of parliament for new democracy and he actually questioned tsiprass commitment going forward. Listen in. I dont think he has any real intention of implementing the program which he signed. This is a program of liberal reforms. It goes against everything that tsipras believes in. I dont think he has the will or the capacity to deliver. So the polls say this election is pretty knife edge. Id have to make the point that the polls have consistently underestimated Alexis Tsipras in the last two elections or votings that we have seen here in greece. So for that reason if nothing else you have to say that tsipras is still the favorite. Hes going to hold a rally here tonight and that will give us a real sense as it did when we saw the referendum of what the support is and whether or not the greek people are going to trust him to give it another go. Back to you. Thank you very much for that. Now the voters of course might be tired but no sign from julia who is out there once again great coverage from athens. Storm clouds still hanging over fifa. Footballs globaling body indefinitely suspended its secondary general and second in command on thursday after a player claimed he planned to resell tickets to the 2014 world cup games to make a profit. Fifa said in a statement it has requested a normal investigation into the allegations by i

© 2025 Vimarsana