Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150514 : compareme

Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20150514

Japanese electronic giant secures a 1. 9 billion bailout. Lets have a look in on european markets. The stoxx 50 is flat. We did have weakness across europe yesterday. It was only pronounced weakness for the dax in germany off more than a percent. Partly because gdp figures were a little disappointing. Its a continuation of the unwind of qe trade dom natd market trade throughout the year so far. Lets look on what the rest of the european markets are doing today. The ftse 100 below flat. Germany and france managing to stay just in the greece. France just ticks down into the red. Italy also just below flat. Of course there has been a continuing sense of volatility of weakness in the markets. We were a little weaker earlier. We found a little bit of strength over the last half an hour or so but in general certainly nothing to write home about. Lets have a look at bond rates. They continue to be one of the key drivers of the unwind weve seen highlighted by the 10 year in germany. We look at things from the near 0 levels we go to around a month ago. The ten year in the u. S. 2. 25 . That remains elevated. Of course disappointing retail sales yesterday. U. K. We have been hovering in and around that 2 level. Mark carney yesterday just lowering gdp forecasts for the u. K. And were looking at 1. 89 in italy. Seema. Currencies continue to be a factor that investors are trying to digest. Whats really behind the move were seeing in the dollar which is now at a fresh low losing strength against the euro as the weaker than expected retail sales number weighed on investor sentiment. Right now were looking at the euro at 113 against the u. S. Dollar. Lets talk more about currencies and what that means for your portfolio. Sheila is joining us here in studio. A pleasure to have you on the show. Thank you. That retail sales number caught investors by surprise. This is the 5th straight month retail sales has come in shy making it the longest streak since 2001. Do you think this number could change the feds timetable . I certainly think it will be a factor in how the fed looks at things but there are numerous other factors to consider. From a retail sales perspective people expected that Lower Energy Prices would translate faster. We want to see that translate were still positive on that segment and still expect the fed to be increasing rates in the 3rd to 4th quarter. Crude oil is down 40 . You would think that would be putting money back in the consumers wallets. Shoppers arent feeling the benefits and thats not reflected in the retail sales number. Theres two parts. One is shoppers are taking their time. People want to see the income is month after month. Theyve seen volatility in Energy Prices before. Spending that money doesnt make sense as it comes in. Secondly we have to remember the Energy Complex is an important part of the u. S. Economy even though Consumer Spending is 70 of gdp. A lot of energy jobs have been hurt by Lower Energy Prices. That has an impact as well. Were have the u. S. Dollar strengthening which is converse to conventional wisdom. Is this an unwinding of the qe trade . Qe programs in europe and japan have a big part to play and theres just a Monetary Policy among various countries. This is impacting investors directly in currencies but also how they look at markets in a fixed income perspective. But if we talk about the european bond trades weve seen weve seen yields rise, the u. K. Has been included in that as well yet yesterday mark carney lowered gdp forecasts so yields in the u. K. Shouldnt be rising, should they . Well, yields in the u. K. Are responsive to more than carneys statements and people look at how the economy is doing. Rising home prices now for the first time on a more consistent basis. Seeming that even though he lowered gdp a good trend overall in terms of growth and contrast that with continental europe. When looking at europe, sentiment has really changed over the past couple of months. We got that gdp number yesterday and surprisingly europes growth appears to be coming from nations that have been underperforming. Italy, greece, even bulgaria was up. What are your thoughts on the growth and the rebound in terms of the economy . Its a fascinating time. We have been talking to clienlts about european equities for at least three years. This is the first time weve seen more consistent interest in putting more money to work in european equities because they see the dollar move as a beneficiary to many export led countries theres still a lot of caution about europe but from the impact perspective id watch european equities. Stick with us and well talk more about greece next. The finance minister says athens Debt Repayment due to the ecb over july and august should be pushed back. He made the comments in the last 30 minutes during a keynote address at a conference in the countrys capital. This comes after the greek government ruled out a referendum over a package saying it is working toward an honorable compromise with lenders. Meanwhile theres increasing speculation that greece will have to impose capital controls. Any deal between athens and its creditors is likely to come at the 11th hour and increases the risk of the government collapsing. It suggests the referendum would then follow with capital controls, a consequence of that scenario. Morgan stanley says if greece introduces capital controls the chance of an exit is is 60 taking a 12 to 18 month view. It adds the country needs a third bailout. An issue that is quite underappreciated in the marketplace. Lets bring in julia with us on set. Is the risk underappreciated at the moment . It is. We have to remember were talking about finishing the old bailout deal. We have until june to sort that out that goes back to when he mentioned 6. 7 billion jurors rows worth of cash we need to be paying. If we imagine a best Case Scenario and thats that they get the 7. 2 billion euros at this stage, its effectively going straight out the door to pay the ecb so theyre going to need some other solution be it taking that cash that was reserved for the banks with 11 billion euros in there. Also profits are coming due in july. This is all assuming good will and things being allowed that havent been allowed up to this point. Its very difficult and the concern being raised is capital controls. Great stuff. Stick with us. Just a reminder as well that you should get to cnbc. Com for all the latest weve got an explainer on how athens is paying its bills at the moment. Still with us of course is sheila, ceo at Goldman Sachs asset management. Weve seen this correction over recent weeks. What part has greece played in that correction. Greece is an important part of the correction. People are watching it closely. Its one of those conundrums for investors and clients i speak with. They all ask how seriously should we take this . I think we tried to look positively and constructively on some of the signals coming out of greece. Behind the scenes. The willingness to change the Negotiation Group which seemed to indicate an accommodation effort to meet halfway but of course the noises were hearing this morning and the timetable concerns that were just said were all of major concern to investors. There will still be caution. Weve been seeing this greek risk, the grisk. Its been around for a long time now. In order to see a stark negative reaction to the market do you think we need to see the greek default of some sort . People will have to have growing confidence that the risk are much much higher. Even statements that they could be 60 or so on. People arent quite ready to accept that its going that high or higher. It may be high but thats just pressure on everybody to come to some resolution. So its still early enough, people are still hopeful for resolution. If we get toward late in this month and theres no clarity and no further sense of Movement People will get increasingly nervous. Arent we moving a bit late . We had him saying we have two weeks left of cash. He couldnt have speld it out anymore. Whether or not thats a negotiating tactic which you said yesterday, but it doesnt seem to really have changed the approach they seem to be playing as far as negotiating with them. Yeah, i think youre right in that its leading it late. I think the trouble that investors have and this is a bit of a cry wolf problem is every country and every situation has a been solved and b left to the bitter end. So whatever people are seeing in Global Markets whether its in the u. S. Or europe its wait, wait, wait. What about capital controls then if capital controls are needed. Weve seen the example where everybody was quite surprised by how little damage happened relative to what we were expecting. Do you think the situation is similar for greece or is it because its that much bigger of a country. Its a bigger country and it could be perceived as leakier in terms of its interaction in the eu oriented scenario that greece played a more pivotal role in what the ecb and eu tried to resolve but ultimately i think investors do come back a bit as well to why is the tail wagging the dog here . Are we sure this is so meaningful it derails the other things we see. Just a quick further one before we go to break. Lots more topics to talk to you after the break. Is our investors more concerned about a brexit or grexit . Probably a brexit in some ways. Some of the elections and noise there, thats a big deal. Concerns dont mean probabilities. What would they say is a bigger deal . Brexit. What do they think is more high probability scenario although still not likely i think is a grexit. Thank you. Well be chatting more with sheila after the break. All right. Coming up on worldwide exchange, the u. K. Burger battle heats up as smash burger gets set to test the appetite of the british consumer. We speak to the managing director of the Better Burger chain. It may be dark days for u. S. Retail but are there gains to be made online . Find out how walmart is stepping up his gain against amazon. Is he or isnt he running for president . Stay tuned for the answer. I hate cleaning the gutters. Have you touched the stuff . Its evil. And ladders. Awwwwwww they have all those warnings on them. Might as well say, youre going to die, jeff. You hired someone to clean the gutters . Not just someone. Someone from angies list. But were not members. We dont have to be to use their new snapfix feature. Angies list helped me find a highly rated Service Provider to do the work at a fair price. Come see what the new angies list can do for you. Welcome back. European markets predominantly in the red today. Not too significantly but theyre below water. Lets look at the biggest individual stories today. Generali up 1. 15 . Posted the best operating profit in 7 years boosted by strength in its Life Insurance business. Results were driven by higher premiums that rose 8 on the quarter. Itv is down 1. 6 . It got off to a strong start to the year with a 14 jump in advertising revenue but it expects strong growth for 2015 though it didnt disclose full profit for the current quarter. So overall, all of that together, market is not taking it well, telefonica is down the best part of 1 thanks to solid results in germany and latin america which helped offset the downturn in the home market but signs of the contraction in spain weighed on sentiment. Now lets get a check in on markets in asia. Sri is standing by as ever. Once again, theres a move higher surge in u. S. Bond yields. That seemed to affect sentiments mostly but not in some quarter of the market. We saw the shanghai and hang seng as well. Remember the clear and present danger for a lot of these net importing sovereigns and their markets is this rebound in the price of oil from the lows up some 50 . Let me talk about the nikkei though because theyre closed at near a one week low. There were some positive stock specific stories here including their shares up by well over 10 after it announced a higher shareholder payout. A little bit on the shanghai composite. Telecom stocks were gainers after they announced they were going to celebrate the roll out of the high Speed Broadband network. Although that was offset by weakness in the industrials. One of the big underperformers today underperformed closing at the lowest level in almost three weeks. Foreign investors were big net sellers today of the financials and the tech stocks. All in all fairly mixed but sentiment up because of the back up in german and u. S. Bond yields and more broadly in the bond markets. Thank you very much for that. Now indian Prime Minister modi landed in china today for his First Official visit to the country nearly one year into his first term. He is expected to discuss close economic tie with the chinese president and top Business Leaders in beijing. Modi who took a strong start in china is expected to strike a softer tone on issues such as the long standing border dispute. Meanwhile Indias Sensex hovers in negative Territory Days after a decision hit sentiment. The stock Index Trading down about 7 . We have sheila patel still with us here on worldwide exchange. As we were discussing during the break, india was one of the most favored emerging markets in 2014. Thanks to lower inflation. The prospect of an economy break down. The market cooled off a bit. Its down about 8 from its record high. Has the bull market lost its steam . From our perspective shortterm trading in india is always going to be a losing game but from a longterm perspective in terms of investment its still potentially quite a winning game. We remain confident in the modi reform package. This visit to china is a great example of the developments we see and if you compare peoples views on china and take india in the same scenario today theres a lot of developments that are quite interesting. If you look at the Online Businesses in china that measure their transactions if the billions companies in india measure in the millions. Our people online, they have smartphones, so many things are changing in india, we see a lot of tuns. Youre pointing to some of the structural attractions of the indian market but they have been there for the last decade and we often have run ups like we saw at the back end of last year and early this year on hopes that a new government or whatever new change is is coming in is going to be able to execute. Will modi really be able to see that through . Because we convenient enough of that hope in performance yet. Thats the con none drum. Investors, this time although always cautious when it comes to india after 20 years of getting burned are actually expressing more confidence. We had more clienlts from around asia. From the u. S. From europe, the middle east arranging trips with us, spending time in india really Going Company by company than at any time in the past. I think modi from an outreach perspective whether its the visit to china or other meetings with dignitaries and important issues coming to see him in india expressed and has shown more development. Its great to have big splash news but at the end how do things get implemented. When you try to turn a big ship its the small changes that add up. So we look at the 700 million indians getting i. D. Cards meaning they get Bank Accounts and theyre able to transact on smartphones. Changes like that as being what ultimately longterm changes the economy for investors. The other big head wind could be when we do see the fed raise rates how do you think that will impact emerging markets . Specifically india . A raise in rates is going to be an impact on india but the things investors focused on more is the oil price because modi couldnt have asked for a better tail wind to help him out. The expenditures on energy were quite high. The subsidies were quite high. So if Energy Prices stay favorable from that perspective i think youll see rates have some impact on concerns about india india. Lets move on and talk about china. At the same time we just had chinese lending data thats slightly disappointed. Does that give us cause for concern that their liquidity taps are no longer having a real effect in the economy . We definitely have some concern and some reserves about china. Not in the longterm but in the shortterm you do see Slower Growth and companies in the more general sense having some issues keeping up with their numbers. That said you see pockets of strength. We were just talking about a pocket of strength in tech and Consumer Spending generally. So i think we see china at a different point. Not always a macro story. Consumer discretionary is the great place to look for positives. Its one of the best slow downs in the chinese economy put you look at alibaba 71 jump in the revenues. The consumer is spending. Absolutely. You see the spending and activity in online transaction and you see the activity in some of the retailing numbers such as the apple numbers. I think that the key point in watching china is the slow and steady reform progress. You saw a very slow start to hong kong, shanghai connect. People were worried and then you wait a couple of months. I think one of the challenges with reform in china is that people wisely wait to see every component of the change before they act. The reforms are very complicated so we need to see them act slowly. We need to see them trickle through the market and then you see the boost as you saw with Hong Kong Shanghai connect. We were talking earlier about the impact european qe had on the markets. What impact has had that had on china . I think it has increased some of the pressure. The way we look at japan versus european qe is on a relative basis to the size of the market japanese qe is bigger. So we see it have impact in our fixed income views and despite the moves in the bunds and germany. We see more attractive tunlts in opportunities in japan. Is this just an exporter play in japan . Certainly i think the exporter play is critical and we have seen clients most interested in being involved in the exporter play. But i think in japan its more than just exporters. Its another place where youre seeing abe make significant reforms. In general were follo

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