Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140606 : compareme

Transcripts For CNBC Worldwide Exchange 20140606

Todays jobs report expects to show hiring expanded at a solid rate last month, adding around 210,000 jobs. And World Leaders coming together to remember dday, 70 years after allies stormed the beaches of normandy. Russias president Vladimir Putin and russian leaders since the ukraine crisis. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange, bringing you Business News from around the globe. Welcome to the last Worldwide Exchange of the week. This is air force one, a different version of it. In normandy. Its just landing. President obama arriving for the 70th anniversary of the dday landings which of course liberated started the liberation of western france from nazi occupation. Well have more on this throughout the show. Its also the last time that many veterans associations will be attending such events as well in normandy. So it really is an occasion. But first lets remind you where we stand with european equities an hour and two minutes into the trading day. Weighted to the upside around. 64, advancers currently outpacing decliners. The ftse 100 actually ended down by the end of the session. Not by much, just off five points. The rest of european equities were up. The dax post the ecb closing up 0. 2 . The cac current was not looking too badly yesterday, up about a percent. This morning down. The ftse mib, we saw a fall in the yields. Yesterday it was up well off 1. 5 as well. Lets show you where we stand. The nikkei fairly flat. Shanghai composite off 0. 5 . In india, the sensex up a percent. Bond rates very important ahead of todays employment report. Looking for a Jobs Creation of around 210,000. Treasuryiels, just over a week ago of course that we hit the fresh 11month lows. 2. 42 was the yield on the tenyear. Just back down a little bit as well. Italian yields have continued to decline this morning. Before the ecb we were around about a 3 yield. This morning back down to 2. 84 . Thats where were seeing evidence of continued impact from the ecb announcements. Big impact on the euro dollar during the session. 1. 3647. Very volatile couple of hours yesterday afternoon. Just to remind you, just before the ecb announcement, we were trading around 1. 36. We went down to 1. 3505 which is a fresh fourmonth low and rebounded back to 1. 3 and now 1. 3648 is where we stand. Dollar yen is steady. And sterling just above 1. 68. So were caught between what the ecb did yesterday and looking ahead to the jobs report today. Remember, mario draghi made clear that yesterdays action is by no means the end result. First question you ask when these press conferences, was it unanimous . This time it was unanimous. I just want to really im really very grateful to all my colleagues in the governing council. Because being able to agree to have yunanimity means an extrem ly unusual degree of consensus. The focus switches to the United States, the nonfarm payroll report comes in at 8 30 eastern. Theyre in the predicting a repeat of the volatility of last months report. The consensus there for forecast for an increase of 210,000 jobs. 288,000 in april which marked the strongest net monthly job creation in over two years. There was a rebound from the weather affected First Quarter. Unemployment, well, that rate is seen ticking up slightly to 6. 4 although a slight rise to be expected as more people return to the job search, reflecting an improving economy. What does all of this mean . Joining us is allen miller, Founding Partner of scm. Postecb yesterday, has that changed anything that youll do with your Investment Outlook . No. It hasnt. I mean, i think draghi has done a fantastic job in basically saying what the markets want, what they wanted in the short, medium term but the actual fundamental issues are still there. If you look at earnings from European Companies theyre still being downgraded at a much higher rate than all over the world. Youre basically a higher multiple for a lower growth and higher risk of that growth because it keeps on getting downgraded. We are on course for eight weeks of gains. The xetra dax hit a high during the session. We went through 10,000. It came back, didnt finish there. It seems to be Central Banks will keep conditions loose. Youre right. Sooner or later draghi will probably have to have some form of quantitative easing. It will be quite a while before it will have a major impact. He was talking about three to four quarters to see whether those measures have some impact. We suggest at least hes going to wait that amount of time before he thinks about qe. Hes done a brilliant year. A year and a half ago he said hell do whatever it takes, those words saved a huge amount of actually doing anything. The measures yesterday gave him more breathing space. Actual things eventually improve. When you invest, youre buying companies, buying market. If youre buying those companies in markets where there isnt much growth and paying quite high valuations, thats a toxic from the nation. How would you prepare valuations to the valuations in the u. S. I think the u. S. Valuations have been reasonably full. U. S. Earnings are still coming through. If you look at the last two or three months, the u. S. Earnings have been marginally upgraded. The rest of the world is still having small to medium sized downgrades. In a way, at least the u. S. Companies are growing into the valuation. U. S. Small caps still look insane. The valuations of u. S. Small caps are about as high as theyve ever been. And even u. S. Small cap Fund Managers are warning people not to invest. You look at the russell 2000. Its been a lagger. Is that justified . You saw that last year or toward the end of last year with biotech and technology. Youve seen it in the uk yesterday where stocks like asos falling 30 . Asos is still trading at a p e. It hasnt changed. Youre exactly right. Its 9 multiple but its collapsed 30 . It shows the danger of buying things just for growths sake. I saw this piece of research, an old piece of research over 10 or 20 years. They looked at different factors and their impact in predicting future returns. And if you look at the amount of rainfall, the amount of rainfall was a bigger indicator than future earnings growth. Its p es, dividend yields, the oldfashioned metrics when people get obsessed by the growth rate. What normally happens quite often, whether its a market or a stock like asos yesterday, it means youre priced to perfection. When you slightly disappoint, your shares collapse. What are you doing right now . Where are you focusing . We think the best measure for investors is to have a broad spread, broad spread, not just equities but equities and bonds together. Diversified in the uk and u. S. Were concentrating on large cap. Weve been buying it over the last 12 months. We have a small cap where one of the few areas in the world where you can still pick up. Small cap . Small cap emerging markets, youre paying 11 times. Its growing by 18 or 19 per annum. If you can combine reasonable growth on low evaluation, you make a lot of money. Good to have you on. More to come from you. Dont forget, of course, theres plenty more to come on the show as well. The worlds most famous computer game turns 30 today. Well take a closer look at the obsession over tetris. Thats coming up next. man speaking chinese could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Mmmhmmm. Everybody knows that. Well, did you know that old macdonald was a really bad speller . Your word is. Cow. Cow. Cow. C. O. W. E. I. E. I. O. [buzzer] dangnabbit. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you. Well, you know. Youre watching Worldwide Exchange. A lot of stories to follow in the bank secretarier this morning. Deutsch shares are in the red. The subscription rights as it begins to trade. They are unnerved as they face litigation costs. They say investigations into Foreign Exchange manipulation could have a material impact. Stock is down another 3 at the same time, they are under investigation for its hiring practices in china. This according to reuters sources. They are examining whether the bank employeed the children of chai these government officials to help win deals. I feel like weve heard that one before with other banks. Bank of america is in talks to settle probes by the Justice Department and several u. S. States. Overall, its described as shoddy mortgage practices. They report bank of america could pay 12 billion, at least 5 billion of that is expected to go towards consumer relief in the form of reducing principle and Monthly Payments and paying to remove run dunn or abandoned homes. The lender faces multiple government probes over its handling of mortgage bonds before the financial crisis. Bank of america stock down around 0. 8 in frankfurt. Barack obama has ruled out riding to the rescue of bnp paribas over its rumored sanctions busting fine. The president of france, Francois Hollande described the 10 billion fine as disproportionate. Boom said intervention was really out of the question. The tradition of the United States is that the president does not meddle in prosecutions. And shares in commerzbank, socgen sounds out German Government on buying commerzbank stake. Were looking at the ecb to try and get measures to get banks to lend. Read all those stories, whether its regulations, fines or whatever it is. Theres massive tax going on on the banking sector. Yes. Right . Raising the cost of money, i would imagine. What is it doing for your thoughts of the sector as an investment . We tend to invest in overall markets rather than particular sectors. It does make you question if you like the longterm investment rationale. If you do well, youll get taxed or if you do badly, youll have to get money off shareholders. Thats a bit of an issue. I just want to go back to the point you were making earlier, small caps and emerging markets. Are you buying how are you doing that . Were buying an index of about 500 plus stocks. So the great beauty of buying an index of small cap is you take out the individual small cap risk. So you get the growth of the overall asset but you dont get the risk attached to any one particular company and you spread it across the world in that instance and it cost you very little. Its a fantastic way to actually to get the small cap effect. What are the risks with small caps in the emerging markets at the moment . The risks, you have outflower sentiment going against it. In a way when you invest, youre investing on the basis of a price. If that price is low and the prospects attractive, thats the time to invest rather than sell in my view. You mentioned bond markets as well. Corporate debt, peripheral debt, sovereign . Weve been buying local currency emerging market debt. About a month and a half ago you could get yields about 7 . Weve completely exited u. S. High yield bonds where you have a higher a lower credit rating, higher risk, probably higher Liquidity Risk and you get a lower rate. To get better credit, better interest rate, better yield redemption, better liquidity seems quite an attractive switch. Do you play mobile games . My kids do. Im useless. Stick around. We have one more interview, you might want to chip one in here. Ever feel like youve been playing too much tetris. Today marks 30 years since nintendo first showed us how exciting piling up strangely shaped blocks can be. Why obsessed with such a simple game and what has tetris done in terms of the world of mobile gaming . Joining us is steven upstone, cofounder of loop me. Youre also the mobile marketing chairman, arent you . Yes. Good to see you again. 30 years since tetris. How key has tetris been in launching mobile gaming. Tetris was named the greatest game of all time by experts and magazines. It took off on mobile when you were originally using gameboy in limited graphical forms. If you look at it, theyve sold about 170 million copies, i think they announced in 2010 of which 100 million came actually to phones. All of those early days of using consoles and gameboys, never gave them the same kind of reach they got on seimomartphones. Is it the paddle version . No, its a block shorting game. I know what it is. In terms of its impact, we think of the first major video game is paddle tennis or space invaders. I think its huge for a big category called casual gaming, which brought a lot of women into the industry as well. Its a puzzle solving game. There are others in another genre, like candy crush, which has been a massive business. The big defining moment is when these games convert to smartphones. Tetris, greatest game of all time, arguably, had 170 million copies sold. We work now with talking tom and angry birds where theyve had 2 billion or 3 billion copies downloaded. Its a much bigger scale. Theres one of these in every pocket. Thats the big shift. Its very easy its not easy, but you mention angry birds. There are extraordinary hits. People dont know whats going to be hit or not. I suppose its like making films, i guess. When you have a big hit, how do people monetize that . Actually how difficult is for them to come up with another one . Its a great question. So i think theres a couple of things that have changed in the market that makes some of the these businesses less hits driven if youd like. That is now they are also a platform. In the past, if youre a games publisher, you couldnt then use that game to remarkette to someone else. Where as now you can download a game from a game. And also the other big asset these big Games Companies like king have is all the data they have. So it becomes a market where there are billions of consumers who can now access these games and their phones. And learning which people like playing which games and how much they like to spend on those games. Business model now is typically youre given the game for free, allowed to play it and the more you play it or enjoy it, the more youre likely to spend on it. Investors clearly have skepticism about repeating the trick. Its about, as you say, a Sustainable Business model. I couldnt comment exactly on the share prices. But i do think that youre investing in a couple of interesting trends. One now this massive scale of distribution. Women are now playing more games than men are. That just is unthinkable a couple of decade ago. And youre also taking a bet on their ability to use this data to remarkette themselves. Once theyve built a business, they can acquire hot new young game studios that come through. You move from being a publisher to a platform. Thats a key shift which investors should think about. Companies like myself will sit there with large amounts of data putting video ads in front of very soon to be as many as a billion consumers around the world. It becomes a very, very big scaled business. You know, the russian markets, chai these markets. Its absolutely huge. Do games translate easily from a they do need a little bit of work. There is one set up in london over the last year. They med a big play. Can you translate . Some games need more translation than others in a very literal sense. If you have a game like ruzzle, a word game, youll have to change the structure of it. There are subtleties, the way users interact with graphics, music works better in different areas. Theres a whole localization business that take these games into multiple territories. Actually, the translation hurdle is not huge. You have very small companies, 30, 50 people who create games that are really distributed on a very global basis. Very, very quickly. Thats i think the speed of marketing is much faster than it has been before. These are social games. If im playing it, i want to tell everyone else what score ive got, i want to play directly against my friend. My wife will play against her friend in berlin, a scrabble game or Something Like this. And that social piece is also a very important distribution method as well for the games company. They have this data, they have a social Distribution Channel as well. And a massive scaleable audience. It is still ultimately kind of hits driven but i do think it starts to evolve into being a platform business. Thats interesting. What do you think of of that . The one thing i always wonder is some of these games, a lot of the people are kids playing them. And this model of the free, then they have to unlock the different stages and different parts. How much i mean, sooner or later someone will probably tighten up. Because normally its not their phone. Its mom or dads phone. And this huge bill is potentially being paid unknowingly by the adult, by the kid unlocking these different stages. This is really important. Theres a big change now that your child is often playing on your phone. You couldnt ever give your child a pile of money and let them loose in a sweet shop. If youre letting them know what your pass code is, thats what youre doing or letting them loose in hamleys or Something Like that. I dont think that need be a concern. Publishing is a business model. Always had a problem where people might buy something they might not use. How many women have a dress in their wardrobe that was never used or a book on the shelf. Never happens. Never happens. That problem actually is overcome by paying for usage. To have something for free is a great step forward for the consumer. Yes, you need to be very careful you dont leave your kids with large amounts of money or access to money. Yes, very good point to make. Thanks for joining us. Have a good weekend. Whats your favorite Old School Video game . Email us worldwide cnbc. Com, tweet cnbcwex or direct to me rosswestgate. Your favorite Old School Game . I dont know whether they mean video or anything else. Let us know about that. Meanwhile, dday 70th anniversary is under way in normandy. World leaders and dignitaries gathering for commemorations. Today marks the day in 1944 when thousands of allies forces landed on normandys beaches in one of world war iis key turning points. Its the first state event to be attended by russian president Vladimir Putin since the onset of the crisis in ukraine. More pictures from normandy to come. The eheir of the samsung great may have to start tightening the purse strings. The shares dow

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