Executive order . No, he cannot. This is a free country. This is Free Enterprise. He has no right to dictate compensation to our company. All those stories and much more coming up in the kudlow report beginning right now. Welcome to the kudlow report. Its 7 00 p. M. Here on the coast and 4 00 p. M. Out west. Lets start with the fallout from the special election in florida. The poll has very bad news for the president. And the democrats. We welcome back nbc news chuck todd. So republican david jolly defeats alex sink. Thats a race the democrats should have won. What does it mean, how do you read this . This is a case where you had the testimonies had the better on the Ground Organization and campaign if you look over a lemont period. This was a special election, so everything got shortened a little bit. The republican candidate, david jolly, this was the fourth choice of the national party. They tried to recruit a whole bunch of other people. His first name was lobbyist as you and i both know. Being a lobbyist is usually a four letter word. So everything on paper on the ground was advantage to the democrats, its a swing district and swing state. They had the more experienced candidate. And what happened is what was going to trump what. National environment versus on the Ground Organization. And national environment, the political environment in that district, which is mirroring what were seeing in our own bomb which poll which is the dual message of antipresident and apity health care was enough to fire up republican voters. But the big to me the big missing piece of this puzzle for the democrats is a local bufshlg of democrats who voted for president obama twice in this district show up. And thats the question democrats are asking themselves, why. I think the message here, obamacare extremely unpopular. I think the democratic response, which is emanating from the white house for minimum wage and today theyre talking about overtime pay, that stuff may sound good, but when you look at the ratings of issues, it doesnt rate. Theyre all way down the list. Theyre not heavy weight issues. The two big issues i think, obamacare, jobs and the economy. Thats it. Well, thats right. And it is jobs. Thats been the problem. If you go to the health care issue, alex sink did a very good job in dealing with the mend it dont end it messaging that democrats have been coming up with, which is to say they want to repeal, you dont with a that i want to fix it. That was the alex sink add. A th i want to fix it. That was the alex sink add. On the numbers, that message at least brings democrats even on health care. But thats still a defensive message. Its still not what are you going to do. If democrats get elected, what is the proactive position democrats will take and youre right, theyre trying to find an economic agenda that connects, but none of this is connecting. There is this feeling of stagnation. We talked to a whole bunch of stro voters. They said the economy is not working so well, why isnt it getting better. Theyre not worried about overtime, theyre not worried about minimum wages. Ordinary folks are worried about getting a job. Anyway, chuck todd, youre great to come visit with us. Larry, i hope to get on one more time and then you have to come to a victory tour of my shows. Thank you, sir. Appreciate it. All right. You now, even democrats know how crucial this special election was. Take a listen to what pundit Mark Halperin had to say yesterday. If democrats lose this seat, into the good sign. Its a district they should win with a strong candidate. So if they lose it, sometimes the National Media turns something into a bellwether. This one is a pretty good bellwether. So it sure looks like a sign of more trouble to come for the democrats in november. Lets talk. Here now to discuss it, we have democratic strategist Steve Mcmahon, republican strategist phil muser. And florida statehouse speaker will weatherford. Will, let me begin with you. Mend it dont end it. That did not work for alex sink. Mr. Will it work in the general election or do people just want to change the whole darn Health Care Plan . First of all, they have been trying to run away from this bill ever since they voted for it. Its been four years since they passed the Affordable Care act and theyre still trying to hide from that vote. Mend it and dont end it wont work. And this district was a bell wit. Peop bellwether. David jolly was the underdog you but he one for three reasons. He had a great ground game. Daviu but he one for three reasons. He had a great ground game. And the president is a liability for all democrats. And obamacare is unpopular in the state of florida. Steve mcmahon, you look at the wall street journal poll, president down to 41 approval. 65 think wrong track. 57 , this is a killer, steve, 57 believe the u. S. Is still in recession. That is extraordinary. Now, my point is a simple one. Besides the handicap of obamacare, there is the handicap of the economy. 4, 4 1 2 years into it, folks know in a this is such a tepid recovery and its not creating jobs. I dont see how the democrats get out from under those two problems. Obamacare and a terrible economy. Well, in the game of rock, paper, scissors, your analysis was right. People are concerned about the economy and jobs first. And think dwms win when they talk about what kind of an economy do we want to have. Do we want an economy that works just for the very wealthy, you because theyre doing quite well already. And most people feel like the economy isnt working very well for them. Thats where democrats have an advantage over republicans. Frankly, its where democrats need to take the argument this year. Health care reform, you see the numbers. I wont pretend like the numbers arent great. Theyre not. And about democrats are arguing over health care reform, they will get to even with mend it dont end it. But we can win on the economy. Thats what happened in 2012. Obamacare was on the ballot in 2012, too, and in this district, president obama won because he was talking about the economy. Thats before we knew about the website and stifled the tea party groups. Phil, ill make a bet the gop needs to keep attacking on obamacare. I think they should say lets stop it, put a moratorium on it, lets stop the tape and lets completely redo obamacare and health care. But the other point is republicans do need a growth message. Only 58 of the country is working right now. I dont think its about the minimum wage. I dont think its about overtime. I think its about basically getting a job which theyre not getting. And i think that is a republican advantage if they can have a message. Its hard to organize and develop and drive a national message, but if you look at other election years that are shaping up like this leading in to 1994 will, obviously Newt Gingrich could fashion a forward looking contract with america plan. Purchase party should remember that and articulate a message about the alternative. But just unpacking these numbers a bit, i did want to touch on one thing which is that 41 number is a truly historic low. When a president is under 45, you see house races in the 40s to 50s in terms of loss in attriti attrition. That number polls california, new york, a bunch of other places. States that are swing states for senate races like arkansas and mop tan i montana and north carolina, the president is in the mid 30s. I get you on that. But in a sense i kind of hate that. I know all about that. But that doesnt win elections. The fact that first of all, president is not on the ballot. Will, i want to go back to you. We had marco rubio on the other night. He has a very good Economic Growth message. Regular places, taxes, energy, education, things of that sort. There are many republicans now, senator johnson is coming up with a plan, paul ryan has a plan. A lot of them. Eric cantor has a plan. To me, the republicans have got to be careful. Its only march. Everybody hates obamacare. I get that. The numbers are very clolow. I get that, too. But the gop has to show a path. This is the connection they didnt make in 2012. They have to show the path where the middle class will have higher take home pay and better jobs. And my question to you is, in florida, all your people running for congress and so forth, is there a better way . Is there an economic message that will appeal to the middle class . There absolutely a better way. And in fact were not running away from that debate, were running to that debate. Obamacare is not going anywhere. That will be around no matter how hard the democrats try to take it off the table. Our growth message is simple. Were not interested in class we warfare, were not interesting in conversations about equality. Were talking about growth. The way you grow economy is two ways. You have an Education System that lifts people out of poverty and gives them an opportunity to change the trajectory of their life and you also embrace the Free Enterprise system and not attack it. Obama just made my opinion, this whole thing, he will use an executive order to order American Companies how and who to pay overtime. This is republicans should really rebel. This is antifree market. This is antiFree Enterprise. This is antiamerican freedom. Steve mcmahon, it aint going to help you you, you but i want to ask you this. I got you guys are all here to help me, right . I got charlie cook. Just want to get your take. Charlie has 10 to 13 democratic seats in jeopardy. He has two republican seats in jeopardy. What is your take on this . Its not just begich and landrieu and pryor. Its stuff that goes to udall and shaheen. It could even be gillespie in virginia runs against mark warner. In other words, steve, youve been in the consulting game a while. Objectively how bad is the democratic story right now here in the middle of march . I wont sit here and pretend like the president s numbers are something the democrats are gleeful about, but if you look at where the electorate is today and you compare to 2012 when president obama was going into reelection, two things. The sour mood of the electorate was present then and many thought whoever the republican nominee was would beat president obama. And what happens is there is a reason that you have a campaign and there is a reason that you have an election. And that is because you cannot its one thing for people to say im in the happy with the economy or the inconsume bent. Its quite another thing to say i prefer the alternative. The inconsume bent. Its quite another thing to say i prefer the alternative. And as the republicans nominate tea party candidate, youll see that the voter in the middle, the independent and swing voter that ultimately decides these elections will look at the alternative and say, you know what, i may have some problems with the incumbent, but i like him a heck of a lot better than the alternative. Thats what happened in 2012. I agree. And i want to end this with will. I think Steve Mcmahon makes a very good point. Republicans licked their chops too early in 2012. And it turned out what they were banking on, which was a lousy economy, didnt pay off because they didnt have a good message that reached out to a lot of middle class voters and minorities. Will, this time republicans smacking their chops too soon or will they have a substantive message . Because what steve says is right. This is not over until its over. These are just polls in march. And obama is not on the ballot. Were not smacking our chops at all. I think the david jolly alex sink race was an appetizer. Were still waiting on the main course in november. And i can assure you, were not scared of an economic debate in this country. We dont want a country that is focused on dependency. We want a country focused on opportunity and one that embraces the Free Enterprise system. Its not just a winning message. Its what built america to what it is today. And we can still embrace those principles, we can embrace the idea of education and equal opportunity and we can turn this country around and i think were ready for that debate and i think its a winning message. Dont forget take home pay. Dont forget after tax take home pay. I didnt make this up. I learned it from the master. The master was ronald reagan. And thats what attracts the middle class. Steve mcmahon, youre a great sport. Will and phil, as always, thanks. Folks, we had a lot of action in the oil markets today after the Obama Administration announced an unexpected sale from the Strategic Petroleum reserve. Was this a message to russia . Whats it say about our shale boom and has it changed energy for the entire world . Well talk about oil and stocks next up. And later on, i say the individual mandate in obamacare is now dead. And actually team obama killed it themselves. Once again dont forget free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity. This mandate by president obama to dictate overtime pay is the antithesis of free market capitalism and thats why i dont like it. Dont like it. music defiance is in our bones. Defiance never grows old. Citracal maximum. Calcium citrate plus d. Highly soluble, easily absorbed. announcer scottrade knows our and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer ranked highest in Investor Satisfaction with selfdirected services by j. D. Power and associates. So our business can be on at ts network for 175 a month . Yup. All 5 of you for 175. Our clients need a lot of attention. Theres unlimited talk and text. Were working deals all day. You get 10 gigabytes of data to share. What about expansion potential . Add a line, anytime, for 15 a month. Low dues, great terms. Lets close new at t mobile share value plans our best value plans ever for business. It take a look at the price of crude oil dropping 2 today on settling below 98 bucks. The move was tied to the Energy Departments unexpected announcement for a, quote, test release of Strategic Oil reserves. What does it mean for the stock market and ukraine and Everything Else . Lets welcome back our great friend Dennis Gartman and jim paulson. Dennis, let me begin with you. I went back and looked at this. Over the last 25 years, weve had oil sales out of the Strategic Petroleum reserve ranging between 11 Million Barrels, that was during katrina, and 30 Million Barrels a couple years ago during the libyan crisis. 5 Million Barrels is the lowest by far weve ever done. So how do you read this . Well, i think its clearly just a political attempt on the part of the president to do what he can to send a message to the russians that, hey, we have one weapon here that we can use and it will be cheap oil. We have it coming. We have it in the reserve. We can use it. Its a test. Nothing more. It was something i talked about last week that we should be prepared for this. I wasnt surprised when the announcement was made, and it ended up putting untoward and i think very real and substantive pressure on the front future futures. Its nothing more than a political employ. I wish he hadnt done it you because its a good move for him, but its political and nothing more than that. Jim paulson,ou because its a good move for him, but its political and nothing more than that. Jim paulson,u because its a good move for him, but its political and nothing more than that. Jim paulson, because its a good move for him, but its political and nothing more than that. Jim paulson,because its a good move for him, but its political and nothing more than that. Jim paulson, im not sure we need much Strategic Petroleum reserve anymore with the phenomenal revolution in oil and gas. But id like to see the president announce support for the keystone pipeline. Id like to see him say were going to permit another 20 liquid natural gas facilities so that we can get that moving in a couple years get it over to europe and take you putins power away. In other words, id like to have seen him say that. To me 5 Million Barrels, i dont know what it does. I dont think it does much either. And i think it fits with the pattern of things hes trying to do of late that he could do out of the executive branch, whether its the minimum wage or whether its ordering by executive order for overtime pay. And now a small but political motivated movement in the petroleum reserve. I dont know if it has much long lasting value. I think that the Energy Miracle in america is the result of finally allowing the free market price to rise in this country after 25 years of president s disallowing it. And when it did finally go up from 20, 30, to 100, the rig count has exploded sevenfold over the time from its low just prior to the 08 crisis. And i think its a great kudlow moment. What ultimately happened was we allowed free market capitalism and suddenly the Energy Crisis is solved. It happened under their nose. They didnt expect to happen. And it trackit happened with th fracking revolution. Dennis, what is your stock Market Outlook . Its still a bull market. The Energy Revolution that is taking place in the United States is going to be extraordinarily supportive if we can just have better policies coming out of washington, lower taxes as you called for for a long time, stock prices could go take dramatically higher five years from now. Lets abolish the corporate tax. Jim, youre not as benign as dennis. I think over the long term the market has a ways to go mainly because the recovery does. I think it will be a long lasting recovery. But i think this year it will be pretty volatile yet. I wouldnt be surprised if we get a little inflation panic.