Transcripts For CNBC The Kudlow Report 20100504 : comparemel

CNBC The Kudlow Report May 4, 2010



recently. but look at the way we performed compared to the rest of the world. we were down 2.3% on the s&p 500, but the rest of the world had a pretty tough time of it overall. spain was down 5.4%, brazil was down 3.4%. right across the board it was a pretty ugly day. about the line is we're doing bad, but the rest of the world is a lot worse. european banks had a horrible day and it wasn't grees oig,s it was the concerns about spain, although the spanish prime minister said it was utter madness all stupid speculation. nonetheless look what thoops some of the big banks. how about the u.s. markets? right here remember financial reform is going on right now. they will be voting on some amendments, maybe even in the next few hours. bottom line is the stocks that were down the most weren't the ones who would be affected by this the most. it was the regional banks. they're the ones that had the big run-up and that's the character of this market. it's the stocks that have had the biggest run up that was sold the most. you're basically puking things out, if i can use that word. transports hit a new high yesterday. they were up 135 points. exact opposite happened today. all 20 were down and the ones that were down the most like overseas ship building, delta and norfolk southern were the ones that were the biggest gainers yesterday. it's enough to pull a day trader's hair out at this point. the retailers, same situation yesterday. great day for the big names like abercrombie and coach. today, all those big names were down 3% or 4%. same situation with the home builders. another high beta group. yesterday all of them down 3% to 4% today. tough to make money on a daily basis. >> stay with me, bob. we'll head over to the nasdaq. scott wapner joins us with the details. you all got hit the hardest on a percentage basis. >> a tremendous selloff. the biggest for the nasdaq since february 4th. the nasdaq now down about 4% from those mid april highs. and it was a broad based selloff across every major sector of technology. take a look at some of the big cap names, for example. as we run through some of those names that a lot of investors watching your program hold in their portfolios. apple was down pretty big today, microsoft. ebay was one of the hardest hit big cap and widely held technology stocks. but yahoo! and cisco were down, as well. take a look at the chip stocks, too, because the semicondtor index was weak throughout the session today. right from the get-go. and you saw it show up in names like qualcomm and sandisk and especially intel getting hit hard, as well. by just about 3% or so. let's end on a positive note. thought every single stock that traded here was down. nutrisystem, beat on the earnings. the stock got an upgrade and did close the session sharply higher. interest to go see how technology fairs in tomorrow's session after such a big selloff.to go see how technology fairs in tomorrow's session after such a big selloff. >> let's go rick santelli from chicago. currencies, all the rest of that good stuff, interest rates in europe, what can you tell us, my friend? >> it's so fascinating. for those of us that are always worried about deficits to see the flight of safety effects push boones below 3%, push the ten year toward 360. it really is an issue of safety, but it's also an issue of bad behavior to some extent. but we'll get to that in a minute. let's look at that euro right now as it's trading. it's trading at 129, well below 130. we're looking at about mid april of last year before you found the last violation of this extent under 130. we're talking about treasuries. you know, we saw that there was a flight to safety, but developing. one of the reasons we're well off 4%. but when you add in all the people trying to get out, you add a second wave of treasury buyers. it made the difference and that is the tightest, the most compressed tens to twos it's been since december and it underscores that strange dynamic about how you run the one security trying to be safe from another and we all know when it's warm in the kitchen in europe, it's hard to put out a grease fire. >> oh, i like that. commodities tumbled today. bertha coombs joins us with the gory details. >> we had the crb end at a five week low today. that euro tumbling today making the king dollar even stronger and that made dollar denominated can commodities putting them under pressure. oil saw its biggest tumble today, over 4% in one day since february 4th. the interesting thing is people are concentrating on the problems in the euros, but if you look at the difference between crude and wti, brent still holds a premium and part of the reason this pull back only underscoring the issues that we have here with regard to big stockpiles of crude that keep rising. especially at curbing oklahoma where the crude is delivered. and this afternoon from the industry, the american petroleum institute, we got a weekly inventory report that once again surprise to the upside with a bigger than expected build on crude and in particular bigger than expected build on gasoline which was a real weak point today. more than 1.8 million barrels. doesn't always jive with the eia numbers that we'll get tomorrow, but certainly setting a bearish tone. gold early in the day was a safe haven. in fact, hit hing a five month high. but at the end of the day, it was basically the best of the worst also pulling back and copper ending the day, as well, off more than 4%. one of its worst declines in an awful long time. >> rick santelli, can i go back to you? spanish long term bonds. 115 basis points above german up from 97 basis points yesterday. but with all of this comparison between spain and greece, i don't see it. greek spreads are 650 basis points up from 545 yesterday. spanish paper is only around 4%. greek pain ser 9.5%. is it really fair on a yield basis, on a spread basis which measures credit risks, is it really fair to throw spain into the proverbial greek basket? >> no, with an asterisk. the problem is if we're looking at pure fundamentals, the answer is definitely no. however, two things. rate of change. we see that their bonds indeed are moving up in yield, but think back to the summer of '08, whether it was lehman's chairman protesting that none of this was real, we don't know what's real, but more importantly, it isn't the fundamentals. would he moved beyond that. it's this contagion, this loss of confidence. and it's hard to put it back. i don't agree with bailouts, but if you're going to do the wrong medicine, do it really fast. at least in the u.s., they did that. i don't agree with it, but europe did the worst of everything. i don't know that they can go back in time. this will be a tough one to put back in the bottle and the loss of confidence will deteriorate portugal and spain in the eyes of credit market investors. >> bob pisani, i'll come back to you. this is maybe a stupid question but was there any nongreece, nonspain discussion on the floor of the exchange from other issues? >> sure. factory orders are improving and we're waitg for retail sales out on thursday. we saw ann taylor saying their sales were well above expectations. they're expecting their earnings to be substantially above expectations. so fairly good things for april retail sales. and remember, that doesn't qulu what was going on with easter. that was mostly in march.economic news has been definitely marching in favor of the bulls. but right now, i think rick's right, this contagion issue. i agree with what you're saying on greece and spain. if you look at spain, 55% of their debt is related to their gdp. >> greece is going 150%. >> 125% right now. and we're 85%. so it doesn't make sense from a fundamental point of view why spain would be under this kind of pressure. >> spain has better credit story there than the united states does. >> absolutely. >> i'll show you charts later, europe's manufacturing index, rising quite smartly. not greece, but the rest of europe. scott wapner, you mentioned how the index dropped like a stone. i want to ask you, nasdaq got hit the hardest. is nasdaq going to lead us down? that's that's an unfair question to you, but is the chatter that it will lead us down having led us up during this great rally? >> it's great point. nasdaq was up some 40 something percent in 2009. it's hit in 2010. a lot of their earnings commentary has been positive, yet technology is a place where investors are taken profits off the table in almost any scenario that gave them a reason to, whether fear or economic concerns. let me take a stab at what bob and rick were talking about. you mentioned spain being put together with greece. i say no, not yet. the problem is it's caused people to move away from risk assets. and you've seen that move into the dollar today and that's one of the reasons why you saw the commodity stocks selloffs go badly. >> let me go to bertha on that. you're last but by far never least. with respect to the strong dollar that several people have already mentioned, what eat sentiment about commodities? how bearish are we going to get on commodities? >> the feeling is here as the dollar continues to get stronger that right now finally the bears have their way. there have been lot of people that argued that the fundamentals haven't supported the price rise.other thing is we were already down before we saw that led down on the euro because we got troubling signs out of china. and let's not forget commodities also under pressure, the miners because of that tax in australia. >> that's a great point. that's got to knock down copper and all those. that's hitting rio ti nchnto anl those great companies. i've seen a lot of dumb things, but that has to be one of the dumbest things in the history of the earth. why knock down your pebest producers? it's the strength of australia. supplying caommodities to schi 2345 na. >> that's where the money is, larry. >> i got get out of here. you're all terrific. thank you very much. now we'll have some fun parsing through all this with real live opinions. we are joined thousand by syndicated radio host and famed commentator lou dobbs who helped create larry kudlow once upon a time. that is the ever living truth. former reagan economicist adviser john rutledge, lee your gene munson and steve grasso will be with us in a moment. lee minuunson, how catastrophic this story? >> i think the real story is not spain. i think we said earlier about 50% debt to gdp versus 120 in pain. i think that the real enemy right how is germany. germany is rattling the saber. i think they make it very clear that they are the largest economy in europe. i think that they feel a little bit disturbed about the security of their currency. i think when you look at the history of this country, they have not acted too well when their currency is in threats. i think we have to watch germany. i think american investors especially do not understand the power that this economy wields. it's one of the top three economic powers on the plan either. i'll be interested seeing friday about some of the voting happening over there. i don't think that they really want to bail out anybody. they'll have to deal with greece. i think the spain stuff is just saber rattling. i don't think 18 bips going up on government bonds in spain mean as hill of beans. >> lou dobbs, welcome back to the program. you're always welcome here. but the germans don't like debt and they don't like inflation. it's very interesting. the most -- >> and they don't like an interference. >> they don't like pressure, right. they don't like any pressure. now, they're going to have to vote, the parliament with vote on friday on the greek -- let's put spain aside. the greek bailout. roughly $150 billion. most of that is european union. i think about $40 billion of it is the imf. let me get your take. will germany play ball and ratify this agreement? because angela mar kell who faces re-election sunday, she's saying yes to the bailout when she talks to the financial times and "wall street journal," but say nothing to the bailout when she goes out on the campaign trail. how about l. ththis play out? >> it will be more important to the civility of the zone is the way in which the greek people respond, the greek political p. if they continue to resist any type of discipline as they are right now, then we'll see a more profound reaction, i believe, than if angela merkel holds forth on let's bring back the deutsche mark. >> public sector unions are in the treats calling general strikes. will that anger the greek parliament? >> there's know question. that conflict will be there. but if it is clear that the unions have the ability to resist imf discipline, then all bets are on. >> so john rutledge, take it from there. the greeks don't like any of this -- the germans don't like any of this. if the european union and the imf gives degrees $140 billion, $150 billion, and the unions are calling general strikes, what does that do to the credibility of this package? and is that part of the issue that plagued markets today? quite apart from spain. just the greek piece. >> well, today it was a day of ironies. greece is the size of louisiana. it has the population of the los angeles metropolitan area and the gdp of ohio. that's the core of what's going on today. they're 2% of eu's gdp and they're broke. they're broke and the government is corrupt. no way that we'll take the amount of money that's been put in this thing and change greece. >> john, i have a thought. in the light of your excellent analysis, why don't they privatize and sell the par that non? just sell off the islands thp that may be the only solution. people think i'm kidding, but i'm not. they got asset, sell them. >> i think it's a great idea, but why sell the parthenon when some idiot will give you $12,000 each just for free? this is a welfare bailout nothing else. but in addition to the ironies of the day, pigg all have dead to gdp ratios less than germany, france and bell sgrum agium andn the united states. and greece is 108% today, but the u.s. will be 200% within cbo's projections. so i think what we see today is a little bit of a wake-up call that investors around the world are start to go recognize that the promises governments have made to their people are not going to be capable of being met and are going to be repudiated either directly through default or through the inflation default which is the second mechanism. >> hang on. hold that. we'll come back later. i want to get steve grass oo in real question. we have degreegreece, spain, ge elections. they have to vote on the imf bailout deal on friday. that's up in the air. i believe that's part of it. the spanish story, i don't know. i'm less sympathetic. i think the markets are overreacting to spain. but you tell me. contagion, imf bail outs, how does it impact the u.s. market? >> marty feldstein hit it right on the head when he said it's about greece, and even though $150 billion, they'll be back in a couple of years. so forget the contagion, greece is not going away. y there's been a lot of damage done very quickly. and you see the markets reacting with sell signals. >> we'll take a quick break. stay right where you are. much more to discuss. lou dobbs, i'm with you. i think the germany p pical story is absolutely central to this thing. coming off is today's selloff just a healthy market correction some stay with me, we'll have much more. there's lot of good news on the v shape recovery including capital x spending that was off the charts. and by the way, there's substantial evidence that europe is having a manufacturing recovery even though no would be wants one wants to talk about it. you're watching cnbc respect first in business worldwide. welcome back. after today's global stock market selloff, including 220 something points here in the dow jones. of course all the jitters are about debt deflation, contagion, greece spilling over into spain, will germany ratify an imf bailout for greece on friday. but i want to add to this, we still have a recovery theme in the united states. let us not get it too pessimistic. sober minded, yes. worries, yes. threats, yes. i'm not here particularly to persuade, but i want to walk through some interesting numbers. we had a gang busters report on business cap x spending and capital goods. it's your basic business investment spending. and what you've got here is the proverbial v shaped recovery. we had an increase of 4.5% in this month alone. orders up 14% year on year. and i want to hit the next one. these are the shipments which directly go into gross domestic product. here, too, although the v is not quite as pronounced, it is still significant. these shipments up 2.3%. and off it a strong start in june. business is profitable and business is investing and that will be spelling better jobs. how much better on unemployment? i don't know. but it's going to be spelling a better story. now, let me go to the next. just to remind you, the day tod we had out yesterday, it was a blowout number and you can see the v is taking shape there. so let us not forget that there are strong positive economics statistics. how long will this last? there are tax and regulatory threats coming into play in 2011. bank reform may do more harm than good. i can't answer all those political issues. all i'll say is right here in the now. now, let me go to the next one. all right. is this the one i want you to pay attention to because there is so much pessimism today. and in recent days. about europe. and, yes, the greek story is a miserable story, but i want to read from you a dow jones market watch release. manufacturing output, in april, across a 16 nation zone expanded at its fastest clip in ten years, driven by a record performance in germany and austria, although greece showed a contraction. this was released on monday. april rose to 57.6 from 56.6 in march. i believe this index is up six or seven consecutive months. if has if not a v certainly a strong view. degrees oig was the only one to show a contraction. but in this report, which is just like our ism, germany led, austria led. output also rose in france, ireland, the netherlands, italy and, get this, spain. so let us not be too unrealistic that the whole world is falling apart. it may not be the case. let me go back it my distinguisheded panel. lieu jobs, john rutledge, lee munson and steve grasso. am i bark up the wrong tree here? there is positive news coming out of europe and a hell of a lot of positive news coming out of the united states. i understand the sentiment and the confidence has turned down. but what about those european numbers? >> you know, i'm encouraged by the european numbers and i think the boss line is people have to look at the correction day as something -- we lad a mild correction today. i think you have to look at it as an opportunity. you have things like iron ore that is not privilege to the tax, but you look at a company down almost 20% in its highs from last month and you can buy it under $30 a share and then you start looking at the oil sector being we might have inventory mums that are off, but we'll start using that. the manufacturing numbers being over 60 right now is extremely encouraging. i think that there it are other areas that you can play with a little bit of beta like the dry shipping index. we have to look at the basic essentials. those are things that sold off, that don't have the political risk of the banks. i think that investors need to put on their buying hats and this is not the end of the world. >> are you going buy tomorrow, lee? >> we bought a lot today and i'll tell you the things that i'm specifically looking to buy right now, i'm looking at increased holds in dry bulk shipping. could i buy more of the banks. but i really have my eye on the energy sector and parts of the comm

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