Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20170309

Roadmap, eight years since the haines bottom. And aig ceo is out, what is next for the giant insurer . Ceos headed back to the white house. We dig into the return on a west wing meeting. The s p and dow looking to snap three session losing streaks which hasnt happened since january. We got that pull back in energy yesterday resulting in those losses. And as we said its been eight years since the stock market had bottomed. That of course was when mark haines made a very big call right here on this show. However, im going to step out on a limb here. This is the big hold on everyone. Weve been waiting for this. I think were at a bottom. I really do. Ever since what we call the haines bottom, the s p has surged more than 250 , the dow also more than tripling its gains. The nasdaq outperforming both indices up 360 . On that morning, which is actually the tenth when mark made that call, dow and s p closed up 6 that day. Well, mark was someone we all work with mark. I used to talk with mark about the market endlessly. We had this concept of crescendo, crescendo selling for everybody who wanted out got out. He looked at ratios of 9to1 of the selltobuy, too many people on one side. When i spoke with him about that day, he said, listen, everybody there wasnt anybody left. It wasnt like suddenly there was a feeling that, yes, this is the chance. It was the opposite. It was like theres no one left. The only people left are people who like dont pay any attention to anything. And are just kind of saying, look, i dont care anymore. And that ennui and exhaustion is what made him call the bottom. Not that he saw Something Special in the economy or the market. You got to remember at that point there was utter panic among so many people. Where were we on the s p . 666. Yeah, sign of the devil. Something like that. I had people talking to me about money and paper, its just paper you were worried about paycheck, say it. The time is when ge was almost unable to roll official paper the previous fall. And worried about etf. In 08. But we were at the lows then in 09 and as you say there was just a great there were quite a few people like its over now. Its completely it was dow on this date 6547. Unbelievable. But im looking at the money and investing page from the journal that day and the headline that night was dow 5,000, there is a case for it. 5,000. Im writing this down. There is a case for it. And that was the journal from that was march 9, 2009. Well, that was about as wrong as you can get. You know, i remember when you go through those days youre trying to think of which bank is going to fold next. That was the fulcrum of banks. We were dealing with ge just a few days earlier. I had keith sharon on squawk box then the cfo of ge the stock was about 6 a share, maybe below that, concerns about things like mortgages in poland. Of course they did come out, they defended successfully. We were seeing a turn to a certain extent at least among some companies saying maybe theyre not going out of business. Right. Then you had the stress test not long after which i would argue important confidence builder overall for the financial system. Really valuable. And the ablgt to raise capital amongst our banks, which does differentiate us from so many other systems. You know, our capital markets, they really are amazing and can be. That saved us. You know, one of the things i think people dont understand about our system is its adversarial. Its very club like over in europe. Theres no way that the german regulators at Deutsche Bank say you raise but tim geithner, i found was a delightful guy in the end. We had some clashing initially. Mostly at my instigation, but he went to banks and said you got to raise this money. Remember ke vas vich we dont need to raise money. Yeah. But it was a treasury system. Treasury said youre going to have to issue stock. I think a lot of people felt, wait a second, this is nationalization. Nationalization actually did happen over some of the european countries. But, no, the inability of any european regulator to say to those banks you need to raise capital, how did what do you think the fed must be fairly like a truckload of nigh kro nitroglycerin on geez. Im worried about that, im so worried about chernobyl. You dont know when the milk is going to start being bad. Honestly we can say that. There are many things i can put together a list i was listening to lieberman talking about possibility of airborne virus. You know, i always said and my clients say what do we do in the event of nuclear war, do you really think were going to give a damn about our portfolios if we have nuclear war . I have other things on my mind. Cashin says the world only ends once. There you go. I think the idea were a highly levered system. We have been highly levered forever. The fact is that the consumer is so liquid, lets not forget its the consumer is liquid. The restrictions on a lot of what happened in the there was 14 trillion in play in real estate loans. Thats a lot of money even for our economy. It is a great deal of money. Thats not in play anymore. No. But what is interesting about this eightyear bull run is the fact so many people have not been a part of it. Good point. You had a generational, you know, after the dot com boom bust and then followed by of course the financial crisis, you have a generation of people who said no way. I am not investing. Right. Done. Done with the asset class. And those who have participated to a certain extent have done so as we know through the rise of etfs, index funds of course which already had been fairly popular back then are even more so now. Thats kind of where we are. So, you know, are we in the tail end of what this has been a great bull market and are a lot of people who generationally said im not interested going to have lost out . Only a year shy of what would be the longest bull market ever. I was listening to sara and wilf this morning and i know at one point wilf was saying well this rally was all central bank. And i always remember what my boss said at goldman which is, by the way, theres no asterisk when you put the money in the bank. They dont say, wait a second, thats central bank money. I need real earnings from eaton and parker hanefin. No, its central bank money, noncentral bank its money. And it means you can go buy physical things. Means you can put dinner on the table. And i dont like the discussion, well, that was because of Central Banks. Because if you go to Insight Pharmaceuticals or united generals or regeneron pharma, top five since march okay, maybe windham because didnt handle initially, insight, do you think they discovered their cures because of central bank . United rentals because it was easier to rent than it was to own equipment. Do you think regeneron, do you think lets puzzle over this for a second, did they come up with a eye drug did say ben bernanke has given me permission to come up with eylia a few times a year than what it was 52 times, no, lets stop it already. All right. Did not create because of bernanke. Oil wells went in the ground because there was liquidity that otherwise wouldnt have been there. Saying the bull market is not going to end. I mean, that was the question. Yes. I was actually going with more of a kind of metaphor kal way. Okay. Kind of like a post impressionist view. I like the post impressionist. Do you want me to go with a r rembrandt . Hes worth like nothing versus aroscoe. Yeah. Roscoe didnt end well, as you recall. Thats true. Neither did picasso. Or van gogh. Were going to talk about the market anniversary all day long. Meanwhile, gop did clear a hurdle in its effort to replace and repeal obamacare. In the wee hours of the morning republicans approve legislation through house ways and means that would repeal the tax penalties on people who dont buy insurance. After about 18 hours of congressional debate on the house gop Health Reform bill. Then tom cotton speaks out this morning in a tweet, says to my friends in the house, pause, start over, get it right. Dont get it fast. He says it can pass. The bill as it is cant get past the senate. It was amazing how quickly this was viewed as being dead on arrival. I continue to think were going to be talking about replace for the rest of the year. You do . Yeah. For the rest of the year. Really . Yeah. If were talking about replace for the rest of the year, then tax reform is not something were going to be discussing. Well, do you mind if the real companies, if the real interests involved in this start getting involved . You know, when humana and anthem right. Well, this morning the story is more about hospitals and doctors being opposed. I care about what humana says. Well, have we heard from them yet . I dont believe we have. No. United health has spoken and i know that our government remember, our Health Care Obamacare was heavily influenced by the Health Maintenance organizations. Yes. Im just saying its not like they sit down there and come up with the best plan. Im saying thats im going to be really cynical for a second and just tell you how these bills get done. These interests are really powerful. I know. But to thread that needle then to meet the concerns of deficit hawks amongst the republicans, particularly in the house, and yet the social obligations that some centrist republicans in the senate feel, thats going to be tough. You cant do it overnight. It can happen. What was it 4 15 . 4 30. I was up, guys, you can always give me a jingle. I look at this thing and say this is an immensely difficult prospect. They cant do it overnight. Thats all im saying. Its going to take a little while. Will it take until december . I dont know, but i remember they break during the summer, david. Its not like theres this huge theres a mandate to fix it, but not any clear way that its going to look, like the tax credits. You know, h r block had a good quarter yesterday. I was thinking theyll have a great quarter because everything youre doing with your taxes is now wrong because they repealed, you know, the penalty. But i just think its very complex and we havent heard from the real interests yet, the guys who have the most at stake. Meanwhile the president is taking marco rubio on air force one and inviting ted cruz to dinner. The new Charm Offensive they say. Its all about maga, isnt it . Do you know what maga is . No, i dont. Ive been wondering what youre talking about. Make America Great again. Oh. What like the big supermarket in mexico . Thank you, ill know what it is from now on. Like cera, you know that thing, people thought it was cera, now, its i didnt know what that was either. Theres no wilf. Luckily i pronounced it properly even though i had no idea. Were hearing, guys, this morning from john corzine, former chief executive of mf global arrived a few moments ago to testify in the case between mf global and the administrator and pwc giving no comment to our leslie picker whos on the scene. Take a look at this. Jon, hi, cnbc, who do you think is i dont have any comment right now. Okay. Thank you. Jurors in federal court are considering whether pwc should pay roughly 3 billion for alleged negligence in causing the bankruptcy. Oh, geez, they were what maybe three or four months too early on what would have been the greatest trade . He had one of the greatest bond trades out there of course betting that the prices would rebound dramatically for sovereign risk. Yes. Was dead right. Off by just a few but he forgot about the Balance Sheet. The fact it was a levered institution and you cant do that if people start to get worried and worried they got. Jon was when i was at goldman he was the fixed income boss and long history of working with jon. Ran goldman sachs. Yeah. He was a u. S. Senator, he was a governor. Went onto whatever happened happened, but im just saying didnt go well. Geez, theres just a history there of just i always think about that trade. And i know thats probably not what you should remember jon as. Jon lost his child, which is what changed my view that you can make jokes about him to me youre bad if you do that because thats real life. Thats real life. But jon made a bad bet there. Right. When we come back this morning, aigs ceo stepping down, carl icahn of course weighing in. Later on today, senator jeff flake of arizona, were going to find out which side hes on when it comes to health care, the border tax debate. Take another look at the premarket. We have not had four days down on the s p since january. Havent had five down days all year. Back in a minute. Back in a minu. This just in. 50 million customers data was not compromised this morning in a Security Breach that didnt happen. Wall street, not rattled. At all no. Sir, sir. What went right . What went right . Everything. We have a brief statement on this nonbreach. Were happy to report theres nothing to report. My dads company wasnt hacked today. Cool. Whether its connecting one of or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans. Wacampuses. Ed today. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Im val. The orange money retirement squirrel from voya. I represent the money you save for the future. Whos he . Hes the green money you can spend now. Whats up . Gonna pay some bills, maybe buy a new tennis racket. Hes got a killer backhand. When its time to get organized for retirement, its time to get voya. The president set to meet with more Business Leaders this morning. This time its going to be the ceos of the Nations Community banks. As for disneys bob iger, he was challenged yesterday about his participation in the White House Advisory Council at the shareholder meeting. Take a listen. I made a decision that i thought it was in the best interest of our company and of our industry to have an opportunity to express specific point of views directly to the president of the United States and to his administration. And i did not believe, nor do i believe that my membership in that group in any way endorses or supports any specific policy of the president or his administration. Sort of echoes of what elon musk has said, its better to be in the room where it happens, as iger said. Ive talked to id say maybe six executives whove met with him in the last few weeks, and it is almost as if theres a central casting response. Everyone says the exact same thing. The last one said, i said i bet you liked being with the president because its better to be in the room than not, he goes, wow, how did you guess . It is what thats the rap. Is it a good rap . Its probably a decent rap, its just if you work remember there are stake holders and a lot of different people involved in the company and some people can work at companies that hes crossed, the employees, and theyre not happy. So i thought, when you see what iger said, i think thats kind of like thats the dont you think thats the m. O. . I think you get it, certainly as a shareholder you understand that. Right . I would think. In terms of trying to advance whats in the best interest of the company. Its unclear to me how that would not be beneficial at least, or at the very least neutral, right . Its interesting, Travis Kalanick is the only one pretty much. And hes the most challenged in terms of by the way you see musk in that tape right there we were just playing. Apparently the president had a lot of questions about the hyperloop at this meeting yesterday. Said were going to dream big with an emphasis on giving states money that have projects you can start in 90 days. Well, you know, guys may dream big but people are very worried about there was another note today about tesla and the model 3 and the costs that are going to come there and the Gross Margins. Now, one of the things i love about musk is hed be thinking right now, i mean, how can you in the same breath of my wanting to talk about, you know, Mining Minerals on mars debate the Gross Margins of the three, but in the end theres a company there. And the company a lot of these analysts lately have been saying its challenged. Ubs interesting piece what will cost to build out the e. V. E. Charging network. He thinks big. Nobody thinks bigger than elon musk, nobody. Maybe bezos. Theyre big thinking. Masa son a big thinker. Hes not thinking about pods that transport people long distances with low pressure. Yeah. Just decent broadband signal is what he wants. Exactly. Doesnt want the windmill. No. I had a company on last night that actually is one of the biggest wind power companies, and, you know, winds working. It just overtook hydro. Yeah. Wind is real. I mend the windmill you get on your phone when you cant connect. Oh, okay. Buffering. Yeah, that one. He wasnt talking about windmills. Well get cramers mad dash, count down to the opening bell take one more look at the premarket on this anniversary of the s ps low, back in a minute. Its a mad dash for a thursday. Do you know who invented modern makeup . Estee lauder . Max factor. Theres a new max factor on the block, i interviewed him recently. He is from e. L. F. , which is eyes, lips, face. And they had a remarkably great quarter, beat on every single line. Huge share take on the shelf at target. Why . Two reasons. One, lowest cost. Okay. In other words this is an outfit that really is they went public here not that long ago. Oh, it was a monster. Ive been pushing and pushing it. Why . Because, david, you cant walk outside of your house anymore without fear or believing that you could be snapped, you could be insta or finsta or selfie and you need this reasonably priced Makeup Company in order to be able to get outside and not feel like a darn fool. This is it. You dont really believe that . That people are using makeup because they think theyre going to be in selfies . Absolutely. So does the ceo. Thats the reason . Its not that its actually a good product at a reasonable price . Owner says the same thing. No, i actually did research. Not everywhere is the upper east side. No, no, no, this is low cost. And they overindex as they say with minorities because honestly, thats like the top point and younger people. In my neighborhood theres nobody going outside with makeup on. Your neighborhood is your neighborhood is the exact opposite of the rest of the planet. Theres 317 Million People who know about this. And they shop and they know and they go to target. We got to go, david. But youre just dead wrong. All right. Dead wrong. Shannon is back, she knows. She is back. She lives in my neighborhood. Shell tell you. And shes wearing no makeup. It is not pretty out there. All right, we got the opening bell coming up after this. Ing u. Say carl, we have a question about your brokerage fees. Fees . What did you have in mind . I dont know. 4. 95 per trade . Uhhh. And i was wondering if your brokerage offers some sort of guarantee . Guarantee . Where we can get our fees and commissions back if were not happy. So can you offer me what schwab is offering . Whats with all the questions . Ask your broker if theyre offering 4. 95 online equity trades and a satisfaction guarantee. If you dont like their answer, ask again at schwab. Got some market moving comments from ecb this morning. Steve liesman is back at headquarters watching that, steve. Carl, thanks very much. European currency and bond yields on the move this morning after positive comments its hard to say exactly fully positive. Not the beginning of the end of quantitative easing by the ecb, but maybe the end of the beginning here. Let me tell you what he said. He said very negative scenario now unlikely to materialize in the eurozone. The probability of a rate cut has gone down. He no longer sees urgent deflation risk. And they removed from the statement this comment that theyll use all available instruments. More optimistic, says were more optimistic about the growth forecast. Let me show you whats been happening in the markets. If you see i dont know if we first have yields but tenyear yield, theres the euro breaching theres the yield, you guys in the back are great. I know its not a big deal for the u. S. , its a big deal for europe, we had been as high as 48 back in january but then fell to like 19, 18 basis points. Theres a u. S. Tenyear getting a little lift in the yield there as well. Were going to wrap up for the bell here, but european yields and the yeuro currency on the move after somewhat positive comments by mario draghi, carl. All right, thanks, steve. Lets get to the s p and bottom of your screen at the big board today womens apparel retailer j. Jill celebrating its ipo. The ceo will join us when that stock opens. At the nasdaq today also celebrating an ipo, beyond spring, a biopharma focused on oncology cancer therapies. How much is oil below 50 concern you if at all . Well, i think the speculators, my favorite oil analyst at realmoney. Com said that the speculators had more open positions than any other time including when oil was at 100 about to drop to 40. So theres a lot the oil itself that said when i think it gets to around mid 40s thats when our producers shut down. So its very selffulfilling. When it gets to the high 50s, mid 50s they offer a lot of future, the actual producers produce a lot of oil and sell the futures. When it gets down here they shut it down. They can do it. They can turn it off and on. I do not think oil is headed back into the 30s. I think can head into the mid 40s. I think you should be picking at oils today. Interesting. Morgan stanley did see a mid 40. I think its right. Harold hamm in houston said u. S. Growth, production growth, needs to be done in a measured way or else well kill the market. Hes been pretty consistent on that. Yeah, you know, i think my problem harold has been very bullish as we went all the way down, but he has some high cost but some good oklahoma. You have to recognize the world has changed in the way we produce oil. We are yes a marginal swing country, but the fact is that we never used to be able to turn it off on a dime. And we can turn it off on a dime. When you get mid 40s and these companies arent making any money mid 40s they say, you know what, well wait. And then it goes back up. The saudis havent been heard from this time, but i do think we have that great conference going on that brian sullivans at that i know the speculators are going to get blown out of here. Thats whos getting blown out. Because of their long positions. Yeah, they all thought it was going to 60. Speculators have been really quite wrong in oil. And the giant position of speculators is rather extraordinary when i saw it, i couldnt believe how much it was helped by speculators. Wow, were they wrong. Really wrong. Must have been hedge funds again. Wow. Look at that below 50. Yeah. I was just taking a look at the board of directors of aig because this morning of course if you havent heard peter hancock, current ceo of the company, announced his intent to resign that position after aig completes a search, what they call a comprehensive search for his successor. You can see shares of aig are up this morning on this news. Hed been sort of fighting to a certain extent. Yeah. For his life for a bit of time now. And interesting to note his quote at the end of the press release announcing his intent to resign. I believe this is the right decision to make for the company and all its stake holders without wholehearted shareholder support from my continued leadership, a protracted period of uncertainty could undermine the progress weve made or damage interest, employees, wholehearted being one of the key things. Of course, carl icahn who has a representative, a guy who used to work for his firm, i think he left, is on the board. Paulsen also representative. In other words, he didnt have full support and theres icahn saying he supports the actions taken today by the board to replace mr. Hancock. Well, last quarter was a disaster. That was the worst i mean, the Insurance Companies why . Tell me why. What was it . The actual underwriting wasnt so good. They also made a deal with Warren Buffett earlier to be able to get rid of some of the exposure they had for Long Term Care and couple other policies that were open ended that i think a lot of people felt peter wasnt as forthcoming about. The fact is is that insurance has been an onfire business for the last five years. And during the period peters in there theyve done nothing. Yes, theyve bought back stock look, im fine with peter, he was under fire. But the fact is that last quarter i was taken i said, oh, my god, how could you have that bad of quarter in the insurance business, i mean even the worst insurers are doing great. Did that large deal with Warren Buffetts yeah. And Warren Buffett made it pretty clear in his letter he made it clear that was a very positive deal for lets just say it was more zero sum than it was good for all parties. Yeah. Well, could be a bit of time of course that passes before he actually exits. I guess icahn never took to him. Yeah, icahn was never a real fan. Never quite got him in his corner. Yeah, even though i know he worked hard to get icahn in his corner. He did. Originally icahn had been pushing for a split of the company. Right. If you recall. Which was resisted. And there does seem to be at least support for the current plan that the companys adopted in terms of what its pursuing right now, but well see. Company was troubled, there was some earnings momentum and the earnings momentum went away and i think people were flabbergasted the company wasnt doing better. In the context of pruitt hitting and progressive and geico doing so well for buffett. If anyone was doing well for insurance, if we set up cramer, faber insurance, we would have done incredibly well. Travelers had a great quarter. And go to travelers line and say why didnt aig have a better quarter . We need answers and never really got them on that conference call. Interesting note from snap today out from fbm. How do you like that . A possible facebook put at 14. They say we believe fb would acquire the company and could be willing to pay at least 20 billion, 14 a share for the asset. If so then investors and snap effectively have a put around 14. Kind of an interesting call. I saw that. To me yesterday when tepper turned the stock around by saying basically, hey, listen, its a real business. It is a real business. No ones saying its not a real business. And a lot of that is he has kids, i have kids, your kids use it. I love the fact he was kind of calling it the antifacebook. I would point out that the one thing thats wrong with that thesis is i think those guys would rather die than sell facebook. By the way, they have a lot of voting rights. Like 100 . They got them all. If anybody can say no, can have a just say no, could they have a just say no . Got them all. Between axe and noble and snap, who can ward off a potential suitor . Yes. Snap can say no forever. Forever. And mr. Speeger has another 3 of the Company Given as a bonus for successfully taking it public. Well, that was only fair. Which by the way was a deal they worked with him in 2015. 37 million shares, i think. That is historical. Success in taking it public. Its one thing if you bring a new Management Team in and you want to incent them and they are not the founders or the majority owners. Right. I dont quite understand that. But hey, whats another 800 million . Among friends and shareholders. Yeah. I know. You see these things and you think, well, the banks were hit so badly for greed. Silicon valley was never hit for greed. I mean, i thought this was a greedy thing. Do you think thats wrong . I thought it was greedy. I know. You didnt think it was greedy . Its a private company, its board decided to do at the time, maybe not quite a couple years ago. Okay, maybe it was charitable. Opposite of greed is charitable. If its an s. A. T. Thing. You want to touch on sears . Have you done shld . Well, i did, i went through it pretty closely. I know this is very much like one of the seminal movies of my lifetime, Steven Segall hard to kill, came through with the minus ten combination same store sales, kmart only minus 8, sears minus 12, what was weak at kmart . Consumer electronics, grocery, household, weak at sears, is there anything else . Like mens sneakers. I dont know. I guess that covered by apparel. What was not . Tires. Tires. Tires. But they did that, they sold the craftsman. Our treasury secretary was on the board of sears until not that long ago. Yeah, old friends from school. Look, lets give credit where its due, theyve got 1. 5 billion in credit. Another 5 million from esl, by the way edward s. Lambert, but i would say theyre in better shape than last year when it comes to Balance Sheet. Right. Even though they lost before income tax benefit 820 million versus 648 million the year before, their Balance Sheet is better. Thats what a lot of the bears are saying. Because they sold all their kings and queens, right . Theyre going to i would not disagree with that. Speaking of companies you know what they really need more than anything else in the world . What . Customers. That is so cold. Speaking of companies, Iconic Companies that have tiny market caps, sears by the way 800 million market cap. Still a gigantic amount of revenues. Time inc. Well past that about 1. 8 billion, reports about this ongoing sale process the company is going through indicating that a group aligned with edgar including len had dropped out of potential bidding to buy time, that is true. Not that you needed me to tell you that. What had been indicated was if they werent going to come in with an indicated interest above 20 a share, the board felt they had enough in hand at least that might get them to that number if not above it that they shonlt play. So they did drop out of the bidding. The question of course continues to be for those that remain that is meredith, by the way, where you could see some potential cost synergies. And what we believe at least is another strategic that may be aligned with or part of private equity group if not at least a couple of those because you do need in a 3 billion Revenue Company that has about 400 billion in ebitda, you need to cut if youre going to get margins up significantly, 300 million in costs. Thats an awful long way to go on a 3 billion revenue base for a company by the way that is many say starved for capital, grossly underinvested in its digital properties, largely its people. Thats what time is, its people magazine. Circulations in double digit declines, top national ads showing weakness. Right. Theyve underinvested in technology. You may understand why people would be loathed to pay a lot for it. But it does at least appear at this point with bids due in two weeks where theyre basically going to decide that they are looking for a number above 20 and feel like theyre going to be able to get it with at least two, lets say theres at least three different potential bidding groups in there right now. So there it is. Time, iconic name, tiny market cap, can you make it into a 21st Century Digital Media Company is the question. How does meredith done so well . Have they done so well . Yeah, been a good stock. Im always surprised. You know, maybe its a last man standing, right . Theres going to be some magazines. Yeah. Do you read time . No. Sports illustrated . No. I read people. Fortune. S. I. Might catch something digitally. Used to read it all the time when i was a kid. Used to read all the time when i was a kid. I guess we got to go. Lets get to Bertha Coombs on the floor. Hey, bertha. Hey, how are you, carl . This morning i was reading nicholas colet over at the converge saying financials and industrials part of the trump trade so correlated with the s p in this move up that weve seen and those are the sectors doing well this morning. Technology is the other sector that is highly correlated with the move up. Energy not so much with oil dropping below 50 a barrel, energy under pressure again. Yesterdays u. S. Oil inventory pressuring that big build, signs of more aggressive production continuing here in the u. S. Thats just not boding well for the sector. Low oil prices in fact is one of the reasons that were seeing world dutch sell divesting its oil sans production up in canada striking a 7. 25 billion deal to sell assets to canadian natural resources. Kind of begs the question, whats going to happen with the Keystone Pipeline if theyre not going to produce as much up there because they cant afford to. Health care also under pressure as a house committees worked into the wee hours of the morning debating the gop bill, back at it today probably highly caffeinated, Health Care Facilities have been the hardest hit group really. We talk a lot about insurance, but aarp, hospital groups have all opposed the gop plan to restructure medicaid to a per capita funding program. They feel that that could result in the loss of Insurance Coverage for people under 65, but also less funding for seniors who need Long Term Care. And medicaid pays a lot of that. The biggest loser in fact this week since the bill came out has been Kindred Health care, down about 9 coming into today, down four straight days. The living operator had been up 26 yeartodate. And, carl, retail under pressure even as we have j. Jill set to go public here this morning. Back to you. All right, bertha, thank you very much. Bertha coombs filling in for bob pisani for us this morning. Lets go to the bond pits. Rick santelli and the cme in chicago. Hey, rick. Good morning, carl. You know, lets start in europe because of course many eyes were focused in europe. It was Mario Draghis big day. Its come and gone. A bit of a yawn actually. But it doesnt mean its not important. Its just not necessarily important right now. Look at a 24hour chart of euro versus dollar. Look at all that volatility. Look at a oneweek chart puts it in better perspective. But heres the real perspective and its the same for the dollar which is basically the mirror image of the euro versus the dollar, dollar index, because its such a significant portion of the dollar index as a valuation. This a yeartodate chart, keep it simple. See the low there, basically 1. 04, see the high, basically 1. 08. Whats the middle . 1. 06. Where are we . Were basically at 1. 061 right in the middle. And the dollar index is sort of in the middle as well. These arent markets acting as though theyre either very nervous or expecting big things to happen from these Central Banks, but our central bank is the fulcrum of that big activity and the march meeting looms that much more important. They should tighten and try to pull europe in the direction of less negative interest rates. Will they . Time will tell. Lets look at treasury market, one week of tenyear, knocking on the door of very significant levels. Ive been talking about this 2. 60 level for a long time. Where does it emanate from . The fall of 2014, open the chart up. You see how important it is . It was also the top in mid december. Now, if we look at a chart of tens minus bunds, i know this is a bit in the weeds, but consider it also in the macro. See it turning a bit . You know what this tells me . This tells me if the jobs report tomorrow comes in kind of roughly where its supposed to, even a little bit stronger, most likely for the moment this could be the top of the range. Thats what the currencies are telling me. But only in the short term. I do believe rates are going up. And then finally lets consider with that spread turning how much more important it is to Pay Attention to areas between 45 and 55 basis points in bund yields. Theyve done a big reversal. Theyve doubled on the year. They settle at 20, theyre basically 40 plus. Our market, well, its about 13 basis points up on the year. David, carl, jim, back to you. All right, rick, well see you soon. Rick santelli. Getting some breaking news on the state of our infrastructure. Ylan muii has that in washington. Carl, 4. 6 trillion, thats how much we need to spend to get americas infrastructure up to speed according to the American Society of Civil Engineers. If we keep up our current funding levels, well be 2 trillion short of that goal. And the group says that that could cost the economy millions of jobs over the next decade or so. Their overall grade for americas infrastructure, dplus. More on this story in just a few minutes. Back to you guys. All right, ylan, thank you for that. Well come back to you. When we return, Athena Health Ceo Jonathan Bush going to weigh in on replacing and repealing the Affordable Care act. Dow up 11 points as we keep our eye on energy. Dont go away. Dont go away. [car engine failing to start] [clicking of ignition] uh wha woof eeh woof wuh [silence] [engine roars to life] [dog howls] dramatic opera music swells from radio [howling continues] uh, yeah. What is . R, larry. The whole wheelie thing. What do you mean . I just got this baby to get around the plant floor. Right, but now Ge Technology monitors every machine. Yeah, it brings massive amounts of information right to you. So you dont need that. Well, it makes me look young and uh. With it. Time to move on. Oh ill move on. Right into the future. Backwards. Youre going backwards. The futures all around us not just on your little tablet, my friend. Live shot of the nations capital. Busy day for the president. Daily intelligence briefing at 10 30, then at 11 00 a. M. A National Economic Council Listening session with leaders of Community Banks. Boy, thats important. First capital bank of texas, cape cod five mutual, all talking about regulation and how theyve hurt small banks. Yes, a lot of these banks actually have been hurt badly. Because a lot of the regulations have been put in for the big banks and these guys never really did this stuff. I think this is a very important meeting. I know these banks may not be known to people but the regional banks have been crippled. I think if there are a lot to lend more it would be great for Small Business. Thats who lends to Small Business. A lot of talk about Small Business owners we talk about the market bottom but prior to the crisis could lean on things like home equity loans to finance growth. Right. That didnt happen after no. Look, there are a lot of smaller businesses that want to expand now. And you go to astoria, did you see that merger . Yes. But you go to the really huge banks and frankly sometimes youre too small to go to the big banks. Youre just not important enough. Thats okay. Thats not wrong. I mean, if you go to a giant company in any company they may not want to deal with you. Say go to a distributor. The equivalent of the distributor in that business are these small banks. Right. Where you actually can have be treated well and have a long term relationship. They know you. We did it its like big banks werent interested in some 17room inn, but go to Community Bank its like i love your inn. Its like youre a person. Is that all right . It is. Sounds like an ad. Thats all right. I like it. Thank you. Well get stop trading with jim in a moment, maybe get some arrivals at the white house. Squawk on the street will be right back. Right back. Hey nicole. Hey i just wanted to thank your support team for walking me through my First Options trade. We only do it for everyone gary. Well, i feel pretty smart. Well, were all about educating people on options strategies. Well, dont worry, i wont let this accomplishment go to my head. Im still the same old gary. Wait, you forgot your french dictionary. Oh, mucho gracias. Get help on options trading with thinkorswim, only at td ameritrade. Time for cramer and stop trading. Short squeeze in the making here. Weve got signet, shuddered 165 mall stores, they did revenues a bit, boosted earnings, everyone be aware theyve been leaning on this on the short side but they actually delivered on the numbers and set up a committee for workplace respect, thats all im going to say on that issue. People saying that theres a line of less bad stories, sears, signet, even draghi. Boy, that is good. This is every kiss begins with k and zales and i know, david, you go to jared, the galeria of jewelry. No . You dont go to jared . Do you know theres a place called jared . What am i going to do with him . I dont know. Whats on mad today . Hes simply impossible. Now you got me off my train of thought of who i have on mad tonight. Whos on mad tonight . Bob dutkowsky, the company was not a bad quarter, just didnt give guidance. Tim boyle delivered best apparel number, columbia sportswear, i love their stuff. Its more technically and located and portland and oregon where my daughter lives and i just think theyre fabulous. What a show, jim. Well see you tonight. Oh, were getting an open on j. Jill, by the way, before you leave. [ bell ringing ] thoughts about this one . Theres the mall. Prices below the range. Yeah, its mall. You know, its mall. So i basically its mall. That means its tough. Yeah. Except if youre childrens place or foot locker or sephora or now e. L. F. More on that after the break. Of course jim tonight. When we come back senator jeff flake of arizona, been outspoken when it comes to a border adjustment tax. Dows up 12 points. Were back after a break. Ck aft. Online u. S. Equity trades. You realize the smartest investing idea, isnt just what you invest in, but who you invest with. So with our ally cashback credit card, you get rewarded for buying stuff. Like what . Like a second bee helmet with protective netting. Or like a balm . You know . Or a cooling ointment for the skin. How about a motorcycle . Or some bee repellant. Im just spitballing here. Nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. Ally. Do it right. Told you not to swat em. Good thursday morning. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with sara eisen, david faber at the new york stock exchange. Anniversary of the birth of the bull market back in 2009. Were remembering that, watching energy of course down another 1 below 50 for the first time this year. Our roadmap for the hour begins with a busy day again in washington. This time Small Bank Ceos are heading to the white house to meet with president trump. And the Gop Health Care plan clearing its first hurdle. Eighth anniversary of the haines bottom, how much further can the bulls run . Were going to discuss it. And another ipo here at the big board. Retailer j. Jill going public this morning opening moments ago. We speak with the ceo. First up though, ceos from small and Community Banks are making their way to the white house meeting with the president on regulatory costs. And the Gop Health Care plan passing through its first hurdle. The house ways and Means Committee becoming the first to approve the republicans Obamacare Repeal bill. Well get to jeff flake in a moment, but first to eamon javers at the white house. Good morning, eamon. Good morning, carl. That ways and Means Committee hearing went until about 4 30 in the morning this morning. They finally did pass it on a Party Line Vote late in the night last night. That sets up this bill to move to the house floor once the rest of the pieces of it are finished in other committees. The key question is whether or not republicans can overcome objections of aarp, American Hospital association, American Medical Association and other Interest Groups whove said they oppose this bill. And then also some opposition from conservative groups who also say they oppose the bill because its simply obamacare lite. Its not conservative enough for a lot of folks. Speaker ryan takes to that. Says this white house has embraced it. Speaking of the white house were expecting to see some Community Banks representatives walking into the white house a little later this morning. Were expecting about a dozen Community Bankers over here. Weve got a list of some of the names here of some of the banks that will be represented including Leslie Anderson of bennington, Kenneth Burgess jr. First capital of texas, that gives you a sense of whos going to be in the room today with the president. I talked to the white house about this meeting. They say this is just a listening session. Theyre looking for good ideas here from these Community Bankers. The concern they say the president has is the Community Bankers havent been able to lend enough to Small Businesses. They want to see that lending kicked into high gear. And theyre looking for ideas from these executives who will be in the room today to get a sense of what they can do here at the white house to make that happen again, carl. A lot happening on your beat today, eamon, were going to come back to you in a little bit. Eamon javers at the white house. As we said earlier lets bring in republican senator from arizona jeff flake. Senator, great to have you with us this morning. Good morning to you. Hey, thanks for having me on. Lets start with health care, i suppose. Cato is out with a statement, a well known analyst at cato calls the bill a new brand of paint. Your colleague tom cotton basically told the house this morning to start over. What do you think . Well, im from arizona, which is kind of ground zero for the failure of the Current System of obamacare. There are 15 counties in arizona, 14 of them have one provider. And in every county youre paying for if youre paying on the exchange and youre a family of four, youre paying more for your Health Care Premium than you are for your mortgage. In some cases twice as much as you are for your mortgage. So the old system certainly has to go. The question is is this the right way to replace it. Were still considering it in the senate. When the aarp comes out and throws out statistics that an elderly person making 15 grand a year sees potentially thousands of dollars in rising costs, do you push back on that or not . Well, theres a lot to consider. I would certainly think push back on that. If the 15,000 a year would likely qualify for any state version of medicaid thats out there. So there are individual things you could push back on, but theres a lot to consider about this new plan on both sides of the coin. Well be looking at it in the senate. This is the start of the process. Well, the two big things to consider, senator, are the cost of course and the amount of people that will be insured. So can anything get done until we have the cbo actually scoring it and giving some of those figures . I believe that score will be out on monday. So, yeah, it is difficult to move ahead when you dont know much of the score. Ill be anxious to see that score and see how the various parts of what theyre considering affect that score and what we might be able to do if the score doesnt come out well to improve it. Senator, something you have been willing to speak about is the border adjustment tax as a part of the tax reform proposal, at least in the blueprint from house ways and means. Right. Youve opposed it. For a variety of reasons. Given it is the key revenue raising opportunity of that overall tax reform blueprint that we have, what would you replace a border adjustment tax with that you think could at least address concerns of those who are focused on the deficit not being blown away by tax reform . Well, i have certainly raised concerns. There are always winners and losers whenever you change the tax code, but i think weve got to ensure that the middle class isnt really among the losers. And i think with a border adjustment tax i have concerns that in terms of the cost of consumer goods, those will go up. Middle class can probably at least afford that. Whether or not the wto will accept this, thats an open question. So that could lead to years and years of uncertainty as well as our direct trading partners. So i do think there are concerns that we need to address about it before we consider going further. All right. Do you have any suggestions at all as to what you would like to see in a tax reform bill that might be able to replace a border adjustment tax and as i said be significant revenue raising part of it . Well, obviously what republicans would like to do is lower the Corporate Tax rate and broaden the base. There have been various proposals over the years to do that. Ways which would raise some revenue. Well be glad to consider those as well, but again, here, were early in the process. I think theyll be a number of proposals discussed. But i do have significant concerns with this current proposal. Proponents of a border adjustment tax say that the dollar will cooperate, meaning that it will move up and therefore the cost to the American Consumer will be nullified to a certain extent in terms of increases as a result of that. Do you not believe that . Well, i think the most difficult thing in macroeconomics is to predict currency fluctuations. So i dont know thats guaranteed at all. If it is, if it doesnt rise or lead to an increase in the dollar, then other Industries Like the Hospitality Industry in the u. S. That doesnt affect them positively. So you have others who are who will be concerned as well, but its very difficult at best to try to predict what the dollars going to do. A report out last night suggested that illegal southwest border crossings are down for this time of the year, way beyond seasonal trends. Is the president s rhetoric already having a dampening effect on that . Well, i think when statements are made by the president when we talk earlier in the past administration about dealing differently with families and unaccompanied minors that come across, that does have an impact on who comes. So, yes, i do think some are listening to statements about tougher treatment for those who come across and making decisions accordingly. But it also is the economy as well. Our jobs picture has been better, and so when the economy is better here, fewer people come across. As we know weve seen a net flow southward of mexican nationals. We still have guatemalans, el salvador and others come across, but we havent had a lot of border crossings relative to where we were before. Finally, the president said the design of a wall is ahead of schedule. Were beginning to see some individual procurement bids posted on government websites. Let me take your temperature on the progress of a wall, if one in fact is coming. Well, in the Senate Bipartisan bill we passed before we had 750 miles of barriers, improved walls, fencing, surveillance, depends on the area. I think as they go through the planning process theyll determine that, yeah, in some areas we need better barriers and some areas we simply need surveillance. So its unlikely to be one wall that spans, you know, 2,500 miles. But well see as we go along. And i think its a learning process for everybody. Senator, a lot of ground to cover. We do appreciate your time as always. Its good to see you. You bet. Thank you. Senator jeff flake from arizona. Sticking with washington, the American Society of Civil Engineers just releasing its infrastructure report card for 2017. Ylan mui joins us with results and it looks expensive, ylan. Yeah, sara, going to cost us 4. 6 trillion to get americas infrastructure up to speed by 2025, if we keep up our current rate of spending, its going to cost 2. 0 trillion in order to make up that budget shortfall. Now, the president has proposed a trillion dollar investment package for infrastructure. I spoke with Connecticut Governor dan malloy, hes a democrat, just a few minutes ago and heres what he told me he thinks about the president s plan. Its like a lot of the things the president has said. We have a title, its an infrastructure plan. We dont have any details. So i get nervous about that whether its real. So the governor is concerned that that money might not come through. And his state is one that could really use it. Theyre facing significant budget shortfalls. And the governor has proposed a 100 billion 30year Infrastructure Investment program. I asked him why its so worth spending money on infrastructure even when theyre running short on the budget. You cant win if youre not in the game. And youre not in the game if you dont have infrastructure that allows people to travel across your state or to accommodate peoples lifestyles how they want to live. So the American Society of Civil Engineers has given americas infrastructure an overall grade of dplus. Some of the other grades that theyve given roads, a d, transit a dminus. And one bright spot, rail, rail gets a b. But if youve ever ridden on amtrak, you might disagree with that one. Back to you guys. Certainly not the high speed trains weve seen in japan. Yl ylan, thank you. No reason for trumps hyperbole according to to richard hass new oped this morning. Later, ceo of fashion retailer j. Jill will join us as the Company Goes Public here at the big board this morning. Stay tuned, youre watching cnbcs squawk on the street with the dow up 36 points. Well be right back. ll be righ. Im ricardo, a sales and Service Consultant here at the xfinity store in bellevue, washington. Here at the store, we offer internet, tv, phone, customer service, home security. Every situation is a little different. It could be about billing, simple questions like changing the phone number. Sometimes, they want to upgrade, downgrade, but at the end of the day, you want to take care of the customer. One of the great things about comcast, theres always room to move up. Of course, it depends on you, how hard you work. More ceos headed to the white house today assessing the payoff in terms of policy changes like tax reform, Infrastructure Investment. We are joined right now by kirk hartman, Wells Fargo Asset Management global chief Investment Officer and richard haas, author of a world in disarray American Foreign policy and crisis of the old order. Welcome to you both. Thank you. We were going to talk washington, but lets talk oil, richard, because thats the story of the day. Oil breaking below 50 a barrel. You think about who that squeezes besides the Energy Producers here. How about russia, which gets almost 50 of its revenues, government revenues, from oil and natural gas certainly in the news today. How much does that hurt . It hurts russia, as you say its one dimensional economy. It also hurts iran. And the saudis and others in the middle east. The difference being that both iran and russia are in something of a position to cause a degree of political or geopolitical instability at some point if they decide thats desirable in order to spook the markets and move the price up a bit. Yeah, sort of a reminder of the pain there, kirk. The s p is still positive. So is the dow, but we are having flashbacks to that period where these steep declines in oil below 50 a barrel started to hurt the overall market. Are we at that point . I dont think we are. Its interesting that it went below 50, but i look at that as temporary. The other thing i would try to remember is its good for the economy. I mean, lower prices at the end of the day will keep inflation under control. So i think theres a balancing act. Just one more on russia, dr. Haas, since we have you, how about jon huntsman as the ambassador. This will be a high profile position, of course interesting political history, ambassador to china under president obama, republican governor, whats your take . Im a big fan of jon huntsman. That said, no ambassador, particularly ambassador to russia, is going to set u. S. Policy. Thats going to be up to donald trump. And theres some really Big Questions out there, are we willing to continue the policy of reintroducing military forces to strengthen nato . Are we going to do more to help ukraine defend itself where we perhaps prepare to cooperate with russia be it in syria or somewhere else, jon could have a voice there but its really going to be up to donald trump. Kirk, it strikes me that here we are celebrating the eighth birthday of the bull market, which started second longest in history, we have so many geopolitical problems. Russia as richard notes, hes on all the time to talk about the laundry list of them and yet the market just climbs this wall of worry. Thought it was going to be brexit, thought it was going to be trump, is there anything that could derail it from a geopolitical perspective . Sfwl there are a number of things with Marine Le Pen in the French Election, you worry about trade wars could have negative effects on the economy. If tax cuts our estimate probably adds 5 in terms of earnings to the s p 500. So even though were at higher ranges, were at a pretty good, you know, multiple. I think the stock markets continue to do pretty well. Richard, on le pen, i wonder your view im sure youve been taking stock as some of the poll numbers weve been getting and if in fact she does lose does that sort of turn this nationalist Movement Conversation weve been having something thats been giving the market some pause . It doesnt end it but obviously it would be an important fire break. Shell go into the second round if i had a bet today she wont win. That would be an important signal that the eu is going to survive. The first thing he would likely do is try to have some type of a pact with angela merkel, the chancellor of germany, on some type of an eu reform process in some ways to minimize the impact of brexit so its not a big precedent. This French Election is truly the historic turning point whichever way it goes. How confident are you in your call though that she does not win . The last year or two has taught everyone a dose of humility. Yeah. That said, i think youve got to bet that hell prevail in the second round. You dont bet the farm on it, but i think the odds of her winning are no more than 20 or 30 . I mean, there is this wave of populism. And its something is that big investors do talk about. Ray dalio in davos, bridgewater, a lot of people talking about it, how do investors understand that . And how do you look at it at the next few years and this market and whether the bull run can continue . You worry about populism and protectionism. I think what you want to do here is hedge your bet a little bit. In other words the markets are at a good level. What i would recommend you do is look at things like low volatility investing. What youre doing here is youre saying im going to give up some of the potential market upside for downside protection. But look, i think were probably in a range where we have 5 to 10 appreciation in the markets every year for the next couple years. Trump has said that, you know, he is a populist, hes going to spend money. Which in my view is very positive for equities but negative for bonds. Richard, apropos of nothing weve discussed so far but it is in the news today and im curious to get your reaction given your an expert in these areas, north korea tries to sell Nuclear Weapons material last year. Certainly not a stable state over there. You know, is that going to continue to be a Foreign Policy challenge for the Trump Administration . Im just curious to get your thoughts about the latest story that certainly seems worrisome. Well, not only will it be a challenge, it will be the challenge i would bet over the next couple of years. Youve got north korea increasingly as an outlaw state. We had the story today about their nuclear their attempts to do nuclear exports. Their own missile and Nuclear Program somewhere in the next couple of years, its a question of when, not if, north korea will be able to threaten the United States with a missile that can reach the continental u. S. , carry ago nuclear warhead. If we cant head it off with diplomacy working with china and others, then the United States is going to face a truly fateful decision whether were prepared to live with this or some combination of deterrence of defense or whether were going to use military force one way or another to set back the north korean program. This will probably be the most consequential National Security decision of this administration. And it will certainly be one that will have profound economic consequences if indeed the administration does decide that it must use military force. Your oped today, richard, theres no place for trumps hyperbole in the oval office in the washington post, i saw you quoted from the art of the deal. Youve been critical so far of trumps dealings with Foreign Relations and with foreign powers. Whats your takeaway here when it comes to making deals on geopolit geopolitics . I dont think deal is a good metaphor. When you do deals, that might be the only interaction you have with an individual or group. In Foreign Policy you have to get up day after day after day and work with the same leaders and the same countries. So you do have to think about relationships. What im particularly concerned about if donald trump gets a reputation for stretching the truth whats going to happen when he stands up one day from the oval office and tells the world you have to trust me, weve got some intelligence that north koreas doing that or russias doing this and we believe its necessary to act. He cant get a reputation for a lack of truthfulness for fidelity to the truth because one day hes going to need people to trust him and depend on him. You cant have it both ways. Well leave it there. Good discussion, guys, thank you for joining us. Richard haass, council on Foreign Relations, kirk hartman. When we return, j. Jill opening for trade earlier this morning at the nyse. Well talk to the companys ceo next, take a look at stocks at this hour as we commemorate the eightyear anniversary as sara said of the haines bottom. A lot more on squawk on the street after a break. Et after. Whether its bringing cuttingedge wifi to 35,000 fans. Or keeping a Hotels Guests connected. Businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. Duexperience our mostand pthrilling models ever. , including the exhilarating is, gs and rc coupe. Experience amazing. Womens fashion retailer j. Jill opening for trading here at the nyse today. And joining us is the president and ceo of j. Jill, paula bennett, with the stock now down about 5. 5 . Paula, welcome. Thank you. Youve been the ceo you said almost ten years . Im just starting my tenth year, yes. And this company has been through a lot. Through many changes. Private equity. Yes. And now youre going public. Yes. Which some would say is kind of an odd time for retailer to go public, tough time for retailers especially at the mall. Why now . Well, were incredibly excited to be here first id want to say. We have been driving consistent profitable growth through what is truly a shifting landscape, but we have an incredibly strong, loyal growing customer base. And we have a very powerful omni channel model that enables unto reach customers however she chooses to shop. So as there are shifting headwin headwinds in the industry, were perfectly positioned to capture customers in store as well as online. 275 stores. Yes. Is 40 of the Business Online and growing . Our Online Business is almost 40 . And with our phone business its over 40 . And our stores are 57 . People still order clothes from catalogs . About 5 of our orders are people picking up the phone and calling, but close to 40 is done online. So we serve the customer wherever she chooses. How do you deal with that decreased mall traffic . Because you are inside malls, correct . Well, we have a very profitable portfolio of stores. We have 275 full price stores. We are in Lifestyle Centers and in premiere malls. So we have not had the traffic degradation that other retailers have had. In addition, we have a very engaged Loyal Customer base. And we have very Strategic Marketing initiatives that keep her coming back week after week. We also deliver new product every four weeks that engages her and keeps her coming back to see whats new. So weve had good traffic and weve had even better conversion based on our product and our service. Is store growth a big part of the formula . Or can you exist on the current base for years to come . We do have planned store growth. Based on the data and the marketing information we have about our customer, we believe that we have the opportunity to open up to 100 more stores based on our store economics and based on the file growth and the information we have about the customer opportunity there. Direct is 42 of overall sales, do you expect that to continue to increase as a percentage of overall . We do expect direct to increase. We expect that within the next two years our direct business will be half of our business. But both retail and direct are growing, and both are growing profitably. You arent concerned about, as you described the degradation of the mall, you may not be seeing it in your business, but we hear bt it from so many other retailers. Fewer people are going, seem to mean less traffic, fewer people coming to your store. Well, we are in premiere malls so weve not had the traffic degradation that you mention, but we also the headwinds for other retailers are tailwinds for us. We have collected for forever incredible information about our customer. We have very strategic approaches to reaching out to her and creating that traffic ourselves. So we with our omni channel business we have we have not struggled with the traffic as others have. Im told of 14 retailing industry ipo that has have priced in the last three years eight are under water. Uhhuh. Eight of 14. So did you walk in today with a sense of trepidation or not . No. Not at all. My Leadership Team and i are all here from boston. We have delivered 20 consecutive quarters of year over year ebitda growth, 18 of 20 consecutive comp quarters. So we have been delivering consistent profitable growth. We have incredible momentum going in terms of the growth of our customer file and in terms of the profitability of our product and the strength and dynamic nature of our ecommerce business. You talk a lot about your customer who you know well, is a Loyal Customer. Yes. Shes aged 40 to 65. 40 to 65, yes. So is it harder to get new customers because youre not getting the millennials or the sort of Brand Knowledge earlier . No, weve been growing our customer file at over 11 a year for the past few years. We have again very strategic opportunities from our marketing expertise in the data that we have to invest to bring new customers into the brand. And we have the customer from 40 to 65, its a very long runway to continue to drive that strength. Our customers stay with us over seven and a half years on average. Much exposure to a border adjustment if we were to get one . Uhhuh. Were obviously watching that, but we feel were very well positioned to deal with it. Our customer has an average Household Income of 150,000. Our average price is 45. Shes incredibly loyal, so we feel whatever adjustments we need to make well be able to weather it better than most. Youre not generating proceeds from this ipo, correct . That is actually no, we are not. We have a very Strong Financial position and cash flow to continue to grow the business. Cnbc has a story this is totally separate from your business, but in retail about ivanka trump sales booming despite the fact some of the Department Stores have pulled her off the shelves. Uhhuh. Does that surprise you . Is it hard in retail to navigate right now the politics with such a divided electorate across america . Well, we in terms of our offer to our customer, we design and develop all of our product ourselves. And we connect very well with customers across the country. We have very well connected with womens issues, with the j. Jill Compassion Fund which helps homeless and disadvantaged women become selfsufficient, so we believe compassion connects us all and thats the approach that we take. Youre staying out of politics. Yeah, not politics. Paula, thank you very much for joining us. Thank you. To talk about the new listing. Paula bennett is the ceo of j. Jill. Thank you very much. Its a pleasure to be here. 31 past the hour. Lets get a news update with sue herera back at hq. Sue. Hi, carl. Heres whats happening at this hour, everyone. Wikileaks founder Julian Assange holding a press conference from the Ecuadoran Embassy in london to discuss the thousands of dock yums allegedly reveal the Software Tools to break into smartphones, computers and tvs by the cia. This is a historic act of devastating incompetence to have created such an arsenal and stored it all in one place. And not secured it. Wikileaks discovered the material as a result of it being passed around. Things are back to normal for at ts cell phone customers after a glitch prevented millions from calling 911 wednesday evening. The countrys second biggest wireless carrier said users in at least 14 states were unable to call 911 for at least a few hours. And a new report finds House Flipping at a tenyear high. At Home Data Solutions says more than 193,000 homes and condos were flipped in 2016 up 3 from the year before and profits also hit a new record as well. Thats the cnbc news update this hour. Lets send it over to Jackie Deangelis for the eia inventory report. Good morning, jackie. Good morning, sue. Take a look at Natural Gas Prices up more than 2 . And actually the only spot of green i have here on my board. We did get a withdrawal from the department of energy of 64 billion cubic feet. That was a little bit larger than expected. Thats why these prices are staying supported here. To give you a sense of context last year a draw of 63, the fiveyear average a draw of 136. So still these draws weve been seeing have not been that steep because temperatures have been more on the mild side. Though we did see some nat gas volatility this week as it did get a little colder, another cold front is coming, maybe a storm tomorrow, thats why these prices are elevated. Weve been watching them as they peaked around 4 just before the end of the year last year then we dropped under 3. Now back to the level seems to be the equilibrium point. Jackie, thank you very much. As we go to break, take a look at stocks this morning. Its been eight years since mark haines on this program essentially called the bottom in one of the calls that will last forever. Are stocks now signaling a top . Well discuss after a break. Uss. With help from our advisor, we made it rough many market swings. Sure we could travel, take it easy. But weve never been the type to st sit back. Not when weve got so much more to giv when you have the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant. Ameriprise why pause spontaneous moment . Cialis for daily use treats ed and the urinary symptoms of bph. Tell your doctor about your medicines, and ask if your het is healthy enough for sex. Do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas® for pulmonary hypertension, as this y cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. Do not drink alcohol in cess. To avoid longterm injury, get medical help right away for an erection laing more than four hours. If you have a sudden decrease or loss of hearing or vision, or an allergic reaction, and get medical help right away. Ask ur doctor about cialis. Today marks eight years since the march 09 low in the stock market. It was the following morning, march 10th, when squawk on the street anchor, the late mark haines, called what is now known as the haines bottom. However, im going to step out on a limb here. Hold on everyone. Weve been waiting for this. I think were at a bottom. I really do. Joining us onset this morning for more on the rally, mike santoli, cnbc senior markets commentator. I would like to know from you how you would place that call, marks call on the spectrum of lifetime calls . I mean, better than any ive ever attempted, i would say. I mean, look, i think the context for it in retrospect we know how brutally depressed the market was, but you know how many 15 , 20 rallies youd seen up to that point from depressed levels and then you made another low . It was incredibly volatile. I remember at the time, and this of course when the s p was lets say under 1,000 in that zone, waking up every day you see the futures up 20 or down 20, and you said to yourself that makes sense. Up 20 or down 20 made sense because it was that erratic at that point. Yeah. So how do we look at that chart right there . What do we think . A few different frames i think you can look at it. First of all, the returns that youve gotten dating back exactly eight years are among the best eightyear returns the stock market has ever delivered. Top 4 in the eightyear periods going back almost 100 years. That largely says though how low the base was. If you look back ten years, if you look to sort of around the zone the previous market high, very pedestrian game. So were not talking a market in the very broad context has run to the sky, but one that has come back very strongly. And i think you can also, i put these other points in the chart there, alternative places you can place the satart of the bul market were currently in, after the new high, 2011 selloff, however you want to define that. I tend to remember march 10th for various reasons, but it was march 10th of 2000 that we hit a high in the nasdaq, michael, that we didnt see again for 16 years, i believe. Exactly. Yeah. And so the argument is how much of that pay back for that really historic high that you saw in the market in 2000, you know, is already done, and can we now expect kind of Historical Rate of returns forward . I think you can have a genuine argument about that because really youve only gotten like 2. 5 a year in the s p since the top in 2000. So that would say, wow, we really have a lot of catchup to do. But, no, you have to pay back for just how crazy it was. And that was actually the longest. This current bull run is the second longest in history. That 90 to 2000 stretch was much longer, it was also bigger up more than 400 . Here we are up about 250 , mike, we were having a debate this morning and i know cramer weighed in on this as well about how much credit the central bankers get for this for quantitative easing and whether if now were passing the baton to the fiscal authorities in order to stimulate the economy and just what that means about whether it can continue. Sure. I choose to live in a world where the market takes in everything and so therefore everything had to do with what the market has done. Its not just Central Banks. Corporate the corporate sector outside of financials was in pretty decent shape, believe it or not. They actually had learned some lessons from that 20002002 corporate recession. So i dont think you can say, well, companies rode the backs of Central Banks here, but i think, sara, theres a good point to be made that there might be some other phase weve entered here today where stocks are not cheap, rates might be going up but from very low levels and you have some other little afterburners coming on that could lengthen the process. I was going to just say the afterburner theory, right . Maybe its not giving you what you deserve but giving you extra. You know, we had that nasty spell a year ago, some people are saying that was kind of a stealth bear market 2015 and 16, people say, wow, this is actually kind of a young rally. Maybe, but using the same terms that 1998 selloff that we had that we still consider part of that bigger bull market was a similar tight move and you got a year and a half of crazy upside. Didnt last that long. Right. I do and we were talking about this earlier with jim as well, i do remember this period eight years ago, michael, to your point. I mean, there was many people thought it was over. I mean, kind of that the market would never truly recover. You had people exiting in droves or simply unwilling to take risk. I mean, back to marks call it was a tough call to have made at that time in some ways given the desperation that certain people have. Right. I mean, especially because the real conversation wasnt just, hey, our stocks a buy here or not, it was money, is money coming out of the atms, is the whole system going to lock up. Thats why i think it definitely stands out. Also makes you wonder how many people are still on the sidelines. It was so traumatic. And its taken a long time for retail to come back to this market. It has. I think that youve probably lost a generation to some degree and so the question is does it get replaced. I do think that people are engaging with the market but just in a different way. You know, theyre not flipping the hot stock. Theyre kind of doing the passive index thing, which we know. But the market itself if youve been in at all, the market itself has allocated more of your money into equities just by going up. So i think, you know, people who are in are in enough, but the big question is are you going to have some kind of an overshoot, are you going to have some kind of public excitement that grows. How do you in your own head square the polarity of opinions right now . Tepper yesterday. Yeah. I haeffusive and icahn and bracing for something bad. I think tepper has that keep it simple approach that says things are not cheap. I dont feel as if im finding tremendous value, but if you just look at the mosaic of forces driving things its very hard to get negative. And i think youre going to get some more. I think folks like icahn and others they tend to like to bet when they have the cards, right . They made their fortunes by picking up stuff that other people were throwing away. Thats not that kind of market right now. Its not the kind of market where you say, wow, theres a lot of neglected value there. And it hasnt been carl icahns market for a while, according to one of his latest filings on iep, michael, he was down 7 in 14, 18 in 15 and 20 in 2016. Right. That is not a good threeyear track record. Its not. Youre right. With energy and all the rest of it, but its absolutely true. I think, look, when somebody like a carl icahn and people whove had a look at the capital structure and say, wow, things are really in a stress situation im going to step in and do something bold, again, that hasnt really been for a while. Its interesting to look at sector performance. Best has been Consumer Discretionary up astronomically. Worst performing, energy. Financials have lagged and now theyre taking the lead. I wonder if that bodes well for the overall market this change in leadership as we look to what comes next . If it persists i would argue it does. I mean, financials we can again argue about whether in fact theyve already kind of caught up but a cyclical tone to leadership is probably better than not. Weve traded this back and forth a few different times. Thats one of the reasons the indexes have not been able to get much of a pullback going, right . Because the more defensive safe stuff kind of holds things down for a while while the rest of it corrects. Good stuff, mike. Quite a day. Mike santoli. As we head to break look at shares of aig. They are up this morning though not as much as earlier. The companys president and ceo peter hancock, a frequent visitor to here on squawk on the street told the board of directors he is going to be resigning as part of the transition plan. Mr. Hancock will remain as the ceo until a successor has been named. Theyre going to be searching so it could be a bit of time. Squawk on the street will be right back after this break. Af. upstate new york is a good place to pursue your dreams. At vicarious visions, i get to be creative, work with awesome people, and we get to make great games. what i like about the area, feels like Everybody Knows each other. And i can go to my local coffee shop and they know who i am. Its really cool. New york state is filled with bright minds like lisas. To find the companies and talent of tomorrow, search for our page, jobsinnewyorkstate on linkedin. Search for our page, the power of a low volatility investing approach. The power of smart beta. Power your clients portfolio with powershares. Before investing, consider the Funds Investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses. Call 8009830903 for the prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully. Distributed by invesco distributors inc. Containing this information. Read it carefully. The market. Redict but through good times and bad. At t. Rowe price. Weve helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. Call us or your advisor. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Oh. Ncome on. Och method whats going on here . You know how Ge Technology allows us to fix problems before they. They slow production, yeah. Well, no more catchy business acronyms. Wait, we dont need to smooch . Im sure we can smooch a solution we just need to hover over the candice, problem until. Just let it go. Hey, sorry im late for team building. Smoooooooch that felt right. Whats wrong with you . Hes so trusting. With rates on the rise, four stocks could be in big trouble. Well tell you what they are and why they might be vulnerable on tradingnation. Cnbc. Com. More squawk on the street coming up. Coming up. During the lexus command performance sales event, experience our most elevated suvs ever. Including the lx, gx, rx and nx. Experience amazing. Some interesting news out of airbnb. For that well go to diedre bosa for details. A source close to the matter tells me airbnb has closed their 1 billion funding round giving the startup a valuation of 31 billion. They filed last fall to raise 55 million and today they will report that they committed to raising almost double that. Now, according to the source airbnbs latest round was oversubscribed. And also he said that the startup focused on investors they felt could support their longterm growth. Now, cnbc can also confirm that airbnb reached profitability for the first time in the second half of 2016. And it expects to remain so in 2017. Still though guys im hearing that it is unlikely that the home sharing startup run by ceo brian cheske goes public any time soon. This latest round would buy it some time and fund its overseas expansion, let some employees sell some stock, help its new trips push and very importantly buy some time to sort out its many regulatory challenges. Guys, this latest round brings total fund raising to 3 billion since its foundsing in 2008. And it makes it the second most valuable startup in america after uber. Back to you. Thank you very much. Not coming to this exchange at least for a little while but certainly excited certainly anticipating. Send it over to jon fortt for a look at squawk alley. Speaking of regulatory challenges, well have california Lieutenant Governor gavin newsom, former mayor of san francisco, california, an important spot whether uber or airbnb, newsom expected to run for even Higher Office not too long from now. Also taking stock of the bull market in wake of snaps big debut. And performance since also taking stock of the status of obamacare with trouble ahead perhaps in the senate based on what the house has got going on thus far. All that and more coming up on squawk alley. Squawk alley. Squawk alley. Guyhey nicole, happening here . This is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. Kids a natural. But thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. Shhh. Alerts on anything at all . Not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. Wow, i guess we dont need the kid anymore. Custom alerts on thinkorswim. Only at td ameritrade. A 19,000anightpenthouse would pay a 42,000 dinner for two all on top of a volcano. Its the latest episode of super lives of the super rich. Take a look. 3bedroom, 3 1 2bath suite priced at 19,000 per night, making it one of the most expensive places to stay in all of hawaii. The suites most stunning feature is outside on the 800squarefoot, wraparound terrace. And for a price, the hotels happy to deliver an even better view by chopper. It can cost up to an additional 40,000 for a highend day trip, where the four seasons will land you on an extinct volcano where a fivestar dinner awaits. The butler service, expensive bubbly, and a very private table for two. And robert frank joins us now with more from the Season Finale of secret lives of the super rich. Quite a finale, in fact, it looks like, robert. Yeah, david, lots coming up tonight. We actually have two hawaii segments. We go to the kahala hotel and resort outside honolulu for a more affordable, 10,000anight at the imperial suites. We also have the james bond boat that was in the movie skyfall, amazing sailboat, only 9 million. We have sixfigure sushi, we have a camping tent that goes for 3,000 a night. And my favorite, its a party pad in bellaire, los angeles, thats a 25 million house with a pool in the ceiling, so you walk in the house and you see people swimming in the pool. A little bit exhibitionist out there in los angeles, but its good tv, guys. Ooh, okay, i get it. So, youre watching underneath them. Theyre swimming above you. Yes, you got it. Got it. Wow. What a job the man has. Robert frank, thank you. Thank you. And dont forget to catch the secret lives of the super rich tonight, 10 00 p. M. Eastern. Much more ahead. Were taking up squawk alley next with the dow up 15 points. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Rick santelli here live on the floor of the cme group. Id like to welcome my special guest, mark skousen. Mark, come on down thank you. Nice to be with you. Im glad youre here. Three topics. Lets start off with health care. You know, the past plan didnt seem to please many, but its been around a long time. Not an easy task to reverse this. Its going to take time. Any thoughts on how onesixth of the economy mayfair . Yeah, you know, rick, i teach a class called libertarian ceos at chapman university, and we always go back to basics. And i use as a visual aid the a w principle, and i show them the a w root beer. We talk about it afterwards. A is accountability. W is welfare. Accountability means the user pays, individual mandate. Im glad that the health care thing eliminates the individual mandate, but we need more choice. And i love the increase in the Health Savings accounts that whole foods advocates. Thats one of our libertarian ceo case studies. So, welfare w stands for welfare, and that means you help those who need help, but you dont help those who dont need help. And theres a constant tension between accountability and welfare. And so im going to have to stop you there, mark, because i want to move on but i think what youre saying is that we can do better with a plan, but politics do get involved. Its not going to be easy, as we see. Second, adp jobs yesterday. I dont pay a huge amount of attention to adp. Ill pay more attention tomorrow, but this got my attention close to 300,000. Are we starting to see the beginning of what started out in surveys as sentiment improving, general better feeling by business . It seems to be showing up in jobs. The million, maybe billion, maybe trilliondollar question when will it actually start to show up in the fundamental data in i do every 8 30 eastern in the morning . Finish us up. Well, actually, but the data is starting to show increases, not only in the topline accounting of gross output, but bottomline Gross National product, gdp, both of them are increasing and have moved out of the recession. There was a business recession, but i think the trump rally is real because it reflects the fact that people are optimistic, and thats all Business Needs to get growing more is the sense of optimism, the sense that theyre going to reduce entitlements, that theyre going to reduce regulation, that theyre going to cut taxes, repatriate. Theyre going to hire people on that basis. So, im very positive looking forward, but we do need to come through with the actual legislation, and thats going to be very tough, as you can see. Mark, thank you for your thoughts. Greatly appreciated. And now, were going to kick it over to morgan. Morgan . Hey, rick well, todays sector sort, energy. The worstperforming sector today with crude eti breaking below. Led lower by transocean, halliburton, devon energy, hess. The big exception is marathon oil, up nearly 4 as it dumps canadian assets in favor of ones in the permian basin