Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20161102

Inventories are on the way. Our road map begins with the election six days away. Polls show pretty much a dead heat. Hundreds of economists including Prize Winners urging voters not to vote for trump in an open letter. Alibaba shares are on the rise this morning, the Worlds Largest retailer showing strength and cloud and in mobile. And big beat for time warner, company also raising full year forecast as it gets ready for that merger with at t. Call is wrapping up and well get you headlines on that. But first up, futures are moving lower a day after the s p extends its losing streak to six. Data from adp shows private sector added 147,000 jobs last month, that is below expectations. Meantime, the feds latest Interest Rate decision and policy statement 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. And of course six days until the election, jim, the past six days on all of the assets i just mentioned, is that all jitters ahead of tuesday . You know what, im going to say it is. I was talking with my friend sara eisen off camera, people should watch your show at 5 00 this is hilarious she and wilf go right and back on politics. And there was a Conference Call last night yesterday by craig arnold, new ceo of eaton, i dont think people realize how much ceos are trying to avoid talking about politics. They will do everything they can to just say be straight. He finally came out and said it, he had a bad quarter. Sorry to read this but i have to. Were struggling with data feeds very much like others but we think the message that kutds through all these conversations is uncertainty. Think about any person running a Business Today and making a longterm capital commitment in the face of an economic environment and president ial election thats been as noisy as this one with as much uncertainty around the environment were going to be dealing in, its a little bit understandable that companies are pausing and waiting to see how things play out before they make a decision around major capital multiyear commitments. Bingo, thats whats happening. And i think every ceo just like they have that stuff at the beginning where they say that stuff, you know, like this is the future, blah, blah, blah, they should have that. Because this is the first guy honest enough to say this is whats happening, people. Now, its not only Electronic Arts call because people still play video games. Its not on the dominos and pizza hut because theyre still eating pizza and its not on the molls molson because theyre still drinking beer. The only stuff still selling is video games, pizza and beer. You need to look no further from this letter that carl referenced to understand why there might be some uncertainty if theres a trump presidency. The economist saying things like his statements reveal a deep ignorance of economics and inability to listen to credible experts who mislead fake and Economic Statistics pushes fallacies about the trade competitiveness, promotes magical thinking, conspiracy theories over sober assessments of feasible Economic Policy options. Fascinating stuff, but it goes to the point that youre raising, i think, and its been raised by that ceo which is simply we dont know what it will be like. I see you that speech and i raise you with a tweet from Bernie Sanders about insulin up 700 when theres a price war n on insulin. I dont know if you saw 41 open at 35 because theres a price war. So you have a senator whos going to be incredibly powerful, right, if everything goes his way in the senate. And he tweets that a lily drug, which hasnt had a price increase, right now theres a price war, is too high. Which you could argue it is. And all the drug stocks get completely hammered. So weve got economists who dont like magical thinking which by the way year of magical thinking a very good book, weve got a tweet that destroys the drug stocks and in this environment what are we supposed to do . Lets pick up some united technologies, i feel great. You are not in a buy the dip . I feel awful. Youre not in a buy the dip mood. I bought the cubs going in. Im thinking about buying i bought the cowboys on sunday. Buy a lot of soup. No, Campbell Soup is having a terrible quarter. See, there you go, right . Why dont you buy health care, eli lily, sorry. Right. Dominos delivered early on in the quarter. Estee lauder, people have to look good when they step out because of selfies. Instagram oh, im sorry, people dont do instagram anymore. They do snapchat. Snapchat is from its 15 to 18yearolds who want what you want. Instagram is the demo. Thats not right. Snapchats got the demo. Yes. They dont have the demo and the advertisers dont want it. What . What . The advertisers want instagram. Im telling you this. Really . I saw a story last week that goldmans advertising on snapchat. And i saw a story yesterday that j. On insta. Is anyone advertising discovery . Not enough i guess. Internationally its a bit tougher, yeah. And in general. Although the advertising environments not that bad. No. Im coming back to this notion that this has become a very tough quarter as it goes on. And if i look at even the companies that reported earlier, they werent so close to the election, they were precomey, and precomey had some better numbers. You now have the Conference Calls themselves if you listen to them, like the guys are like, well, you know, could you speak up, please. I did make a list of companies raising guidance today. Zillow, etsy, time warner and square. Yelp had good numbers. Terrific. Those are some new economy companies. Square, those were all very good. Square had some very good things to say. Yelp by the way its radical transformation. Time warner im going to leave to you. The Electronic Arts call was incredible. That stock was just crushed in after hours. And then you listen to the call and you say well who are those morons selling it. The call was extraordinary how good it was. People love playing video games at this moment. By the way theyre not even sprucing their house up. Theyre just sitting there, we know that because home depot goes down every day. Theyre not wearing new clothes. Theyre wearing old clothes. The only thing good judging from tide numbers from proctor, theyre washing their clothes. And febreze, maybe their space smells better. Activision is tomorrow. I think activision and take two will be very good. Yelp is the confusing thing for me because that would indicate periodically they go out for a meal. Well, its hard to get out of the bunker. Well, you know, yelp, they have delivery services. Oh, okay. Meantime, the battle between Hillary Clinton and donald trump intensifies with less than a week to go before election day. Five days, 14 hours and 52 minutes. Lets get to eamon javers live in washington with the latest. Hey, eamon. Good morning, carl. With less than a week to go you get the sense this is a race that is tightening in its final days. Take a look at this the Washington Post abc poll thats out showing a dead heat here between Hillary Clinton and donald trump. This is conducted october 28th through the 31st. Hillary clinton 46, donald trump 46, gary johnson at 3 and jill stein just at 2 there. So a dead heat according to that poll. But i want you guys to take a look at this note that Goldman Sachs put out last night because i think its important to get a sense of what wall streets baseline expectation is. Goldman sachs says, secretary clinton is still seen as twice as likely to win the white house next week as mr. Trump. Nbcs own battleground map shows Hillary Clinton with 274 electoral votes, thats more than is needed but is down from last month. They also show that donald trump has got a total of 180, thats up from 157 in mid october. So that gives you a sense that this is a tightening race. Wall streets expectation i think you can use that Goldman Sachs note as a proxy for what the street thinks generally is going to happen on tuesday. So a tightening race, wall streets expectation still is a Hillary Clinton victory. Anything different than that would be a miss by wall street expectations lingo. So look at it in that context that the experts here still think Hillary Clinton is headed for a win here but a very, very dramatically tightening picture. And that adds to all the tension going into tuesday, guys. Eamon, well be talking to you soon. Eamon javers in washington. We talked to mark cuban on squawk alley yesterday. He put a hedge on some of the biggest hes ever had because of uncertainty related to the election. Would you be doing that . Would you be buying gold . I feel if you feel this way, and others feel this way which means hedges are too expensive. Now, mark plays with a lot of house money. If youre not, then you should go into cash. Theres some puts. You could have bought puts a few weeks ago not that expensive. Precomey, its pc yeah, prior to comey. But before comey plenty hedge funds moved to more cash. Not all cash. For people at home and for hedge funds actually i would raise cash, did that for travel trust, not hedge fund. If you could do fancy, should gold go higher here. Im sucking in with the gold stock which is are terrible but gold itself is interesting. I just feel like were in a moment here where it doesnt really matter until this thing is over. Particularly in health care. What if trump wins . What if trump wins . Yeah. We readjust. Business as usual. Find stuff that works. We readjust. You think we go down november 9th, 10 . Theres still a lot of people feel its like 538. People still feel its a done deal for hillary. Thats where goldman is getting their stuff done. Its not like they have proprietary models, theyre going off the websites everybody goes to. Although this the Washington Post poll not only has trump and clinton tied now, but trump with an eightpoint advantage on honest and trustworthy. Its also get out the vote ground game gap that were trying to make sense of. By the way, we heard from peter thiel on monday endorsing trump. Yesterday we talked to cuban and we did ask him what a Trump Victory would mean for the markets. If hes going to say things that are stupid and offensive, that could lead to some sort of military action, not originating from the United States but from another country, that is the worst thing possible for the stock market. And that uncertainty because, you know, you have a candidate that doesnt know when not to talk, there isnt anything worse for the markets because that complete uncertainty, you know, the idea that what he could say tomorrow could impact markets worldwide, thats going to pull people out of the market. And part two to that is if we see any uptick in Interest Rates at all, then its going to look like a great deal just to put our money into treasury or bonds or something very safe. So thats his point is that investors are not accustom to discounting what trump says, whether its bluster, whether its truth. Well, yeah, i follow mark closely for, i dont know, for 25 years. I mean he speaks his mind. Hes been right far more than hes been wrong. Its just, again, i come back to the idea that in any regime there are things that work and things that dont. Initially you have a big downdraft and then you take a look. Most people are in index funds at this point. Right. So if the s p goes down 10 . Do they want to step aside . You tell them to step aside and then it comes back up and youre the goat of the game. I mean i remember i told people to step aside dow 11,000, dow 10,000, goes to 6,000, said it was bottomless im with the late mark haines, say you idiot, you got us out at 10,000. When you tell people to get out, be careful. Thats why im saying, look, well find a way to deal. If you want to raise some cash, that certainly makes sense. Not a lot of things are working here. But if you just say get out, thats been a suckers game even if you tell them. Election night youre going to want to keep it here for all of that. Our special election coverage begins tuesday 7 00 p. M. Eastern time and continues well into the evening. Who knows, maybe into the wee hours. We will find out on tuesday. Time warners out with earnings, the first since agreeing to be acquired by at t and that 58 billion deal. Were going to get to that after a short break. Well get to square. Baba, clorox, microsoft has an event today at 11 00 a. M. Eastern time in new york. More squawk on the street from post nine in a minute. Siness bey when growth presents itself . American express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. Find out how American Express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open. Com. Find out how American Express cards and services hthis bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my Trading Platform wherever i go. You know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right . Oh, so my custom studies will go with me . Anywhere you want to go the markets hot sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. Only at Td Ameritrade time warn heer out with fir Earnings Report since agreeing to be acquired by at t. Quarterly results were ahead of expectations in fact. The Third Quarter showing a company that some would say is delivering on promises made a couple years back when it was in that fight to defend itself against foxs bid to acquire it. Better than expected tax rate meaning a lower tax rate or tax benefit certainly seemed to help, but overall adjusted eps of 1. 83 or 1. 55 including that benefit better than anticipated. Generally saw more strength than had been anticipated at the turner networks. Hbo a little lighter in some of its results than had been thought by some of the analysts who follow the company. But overall, guys, a very positive report from time warner. The question though continues to be what are the chances that at t succeeds on the regulatory front getting its deal through. Many say it should given its vertical integration though there is a story today in the wall street journal talking about how nothing how this idea of zero counting against your data charges when you take at ts streaming offerings could be an issue. And then theres also this continued question, is there anybody else outd there . Thats what i wanted to ask you. I see that and i say, hey, you know, maybe thats a pretty good deal. And the question of course that has come back to focus on apple. In fact bewkes asked on the call were there any companies showed interest in acquiring time warner, mr. Bewkes answer was lets focus on at t. What i can tell you right now according to people familiar with apples thinking, its not interested. Apple is not interested in buying time warner at present. These things go on for months and months, this regulatory reviews going to take at least a year. The deal will not close, certainly if youre in apple, you watch the stock price and see how things progress, again, apple not interested at this time. And it doesnt appear there would be any other potential interest. Google had been mentioned at one point or another, but right now its at ts, it will be at ts, and the question is do they get it through, what conditions do they agree to in order to get it through the regulators. Can i ask you a readthrough . I know disney reports soon, but is time warners got sports programming. Time warners got some time shift program. Time warners got movies. This was a really good quarter for that mosaic. Yeah, it was. Disneys got a similar mosaic and yet people just keep selling the stock of disney. When i look at this what time warner can generate cash flow and earnings, why should i not think i mean, i know you come back, jim, espn is disney. But thats what it is. S espn is the main Cash Generator for disney and the subs have been going down. Its over time and thats real. And thats expected to continue to some extent. And im sure thats gotten the attention of the gentleman who runs disney. No, i know, there was a my guess would be neilson hes trying to figure it out. Just putting it out there. The espn sub sns. Yeah, talking mr. Iger thinking what can we do to make sure this is not a real threat to us. Not to mention 20 months left in his term. Right. What can i do prior to my leaving . And, you know, the fact they were serious for twitter sends a message to me. They didnt follow through, but they were serious. Right. Just putting it out there because people are going to say, wait a second, this wasnt so bad. But espn is much more dominant than sports programming. And more important. Just putting it out there. I hear you. You know where im coming from. You know i do. When we come back well get cramers mad dash, count down to the opening bell. Take another look at the premarket on this wednesday, talk more about oil, adp today was slight disappointment and that fed Decision Just a few hours away. We got a mad dash for this, what are we . Were on hump day. Thats always nice. That is a positive. You want to talk a little game stop, which is not a positive this morning. No, its interesting Electronic Arts reported great numbers last night. Old days you think thats good for game stop, but you know what, dave, people dont buy these games, they dont buy madden, battle front at game stop anymore. They buy a lot of the loot, the other stuff that goes with gamestop. People looking for minus 1 , came out minus 6 same store, very, very big misses, preliminary numbers. And there were a lot of people kept hoping this thing would be revised upward. Instead it went the other way. Theres a very big short position preventing the stock from going down. This is shocking because there is a continual belief this company will return. Why . If theres a thesis and proved correct the stock is down simply people are not going to these stores as much. I agree with you, but theres a narrative that continually tried to change whats in the stores that may be all the different characters that go with different games and hes trying to develop other kinds of stores. Its not working. Right. Jim, standby, weve got some breaking news on ford. We want to get to phil lebeau for that. Phil. David, ford delayed its release of october Sales Numbers yesterday coming out this morning, a decline in october of 11. 7 . That is a bigger decline than was expected. Whats interesting is this now sets up whether or not we get the final number for the sales rate for the month of october, which auto data calculated at 18. 28 per million vehicles yesterday might be closer to 18 million. Still an incredibly strong month in terms of a sales base, but again, ford coming in weaker than expected. Guys, back to you. All right, phil, thank you. Were going to take a break now hit the opening bell, of course talk more about ford on the other side of that break. And we got earnings from allergan and alibaba and many others well get to as well. Want a great way to help our children thrive . Then be sure to vote yes on proposition 55. Prop 55 doesnt raise taxes on anyone. Instead, it simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians to prevent education cuts that would hurt our kids. No wonder prop 55 is endorsed by the california pta, teachers and educators. Because all of us want to help our children thrive. Its time to vote yes on proposition 55. Its time to vote yes hes the drug company big shot who raised the price of a lifesaving pill by five thousand percent. Said he wished hed raised it more. 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With the help of at t, and security that senses and mitigates Cyber Threats, their Critical Data is safer than ever. Giving them the agility to be open secure. Because no one knows like at t. Youre watching cnbc squawk on the street live from the Financial Capital of the world. The opening bell in less than a minute. A busy wednesday here as we await the fed decision this afternoon, six days to the election. Adp came in a slight disappointment, watching almost every asset that implies volatility whether thats the vix, gold, bonds, equities obviously on the longest losing streak of the year. Got some m a though going. Yeah. I dont know if enough to do the job. I mean, this again in the little niche area of technology. The company that did it is the brilliant broadcom. Kind of soup and nuts perspective what he can offer people. He used to be limit people to cell phones, the man is brilliant. Serial entrepreneur, serial buyer of companies, brilliant man, but really limited to broadcom. Sure. Theres nobody on takeaway to brocade. Brocade has been kicked around for years as a possible bridesmaid, not the bride. Theres the opening bell at the big board this morning. Arconic marking its separation from alcoa, the raw aluminum producer at the nasdaq gds holdings, developer and operator of data centers in china with an ipo. Think of all the names were getting used to, arconic, yum china. Its great you mention these. Yum china, the stock the volume doubled the last hour. Why is that . People want that china play. Remember, the communist party is now allowed to be involved in little bit more, but thats positive. Yum china is a pretty good road map. I think people want that. I think it was a very well received deal. Our arconic not as great, why . Goldman starts with a sell, it was difficult to understand, you have one share for three shares that ratio itself was kind of mind blowing. The capital structure itself was hard to understand. Morgan stanley recommended it today. Arconic is about 60 aerospace. Goldman didnt like half the end markets. Stock got hammered, travel trust owns it for long term trying to get a bigger position in it, but frankly stunning lack of prep on the street because the street just wasnt ready for it. Versus yum where the street was so ready for it and was salivating at the chance for a play china. By the way china is continually positive theme this quarter. Emerson liked china, eaton liked china, very, very positive. Gdp since the spring is around 7. Theres been lots of positive commentary. Truck build in china very good. Gms very good. This just came out what im focused on playing for a very, very i like that, high level pricing pressure going to the allimportant holiday season. That does not just make you feel who nl after l. Brands yesterday. Im looking for a place to hide. Its certainly not going to be in gamestop. Were just at this moment right now where everybody is on edge. Someone came in to me last night and said how about buying facebook . Post tonight. Yeah. I like facebook. Im not risking defenseless receiver out there. Thought thats a little extreme. You talking to Richard Sherman again . No, no, everyones defenseless when it comes to Richard Sherman. Speaking of china it is worth looking at alibaba this morning. There you go. Great segue. Thank you. Stock reported 55 year or yooeyear increase in revenues. Increase in cloud unit, continue to hear that. Revenue from core commerce up 41 year over year. The analysts who followed the company seem excited by what is both monetization and a Margin Expansion at alibaba. Mobile maus, Monthly Average users on the platform the china retail marketplace were 450 million as of the september quarter. That was up 23 million over june. Thats an awful lot of people using their phone once a month or at least to access they were smart about it. They and yelp. Did you see the incredible yelp uptick on the app . Users strong apps approximately 70 come from app, baba app, yelp app, facebook app, you get people to adopt your app, gold mine. As you see the stock is up. Its not up dramatically. There is some concern speaking to one alibaba investor this morning about when they talk about investments, are they also talking about margins starting to contract. Joe tsai spoke broadly on the call about investing for the long run, how they focus on initiatives with long gestation periods. And in their experience that investment cycle for incubating businesses that become massive value drivers can take seven to ten years. Developed organically in house. Of course ali pays separate from the company at this point. But there is at least investors wondering are they going to make a large investment that takes away from margins. This is a family show. You cant use a certain word that you just used. You cant use the Word Investment. Oh, i cant. Thats a curse word. Kevin plank used the Word Investment and he sent his own stock down, under armour, at 10 . May i just tell you when you use the Word Investment that is basically saying i dont care about your money. Im taking it from you. So lets be a little more suspect, little more circumspect with using the Word Investment. Thats going to put that at the eighth word. How many did carl have . Seven. This is the eighth word of investment, dont you dare say that word without saying math okay. That is just the end of a stock in this environment. That says margins are coming down, a lot of competition, not enough demand, were really getting crushed. Thats to me the four horsemen of the apocalypse. You wonder why we complain theres no private investment. That all of this gdp growth whatever were getting is the consumer. You know who had no investment . Dominos pizza. That was the quarter. They spent less, got more. They made the investment previously. More taste, less filling. They made the investment previously. Dominos now pizza hut admitted they were behind, but they get the money back through the franchises. I think this is important to note. It is. And youre being clearly youre being sarcastic. I hope people understand that. In that companies are pressured not to make investments, which of course are in their best interest for maintaining their longterm health. Dxcm, if you hit that one up is that de they used the curse word. They cursed. What do we make of allergans decision to return capital, not invest necessarily. Of course theyre making investments. Allergan if you missed it this morning the numbers themselves were not particularly strong. But they are now instituting a dividend in 2017 of 2. 80 a share. That implies a dividend of lets call it yield of about 1. 3 or so. Yeah, big buyback. Theyre also buying back 10 billion in an accelerated share repurchase. Theyve already bought 21 million shares back. Thats about 5 billion. But their guidance, jim, was not particularly good. No because nomenda, thats not core, but nomenda numbers were not good. Analysts wanted them to pull through forward some growth. They would not do that. Margins are a concern, all right. I think Brent Saunders is being conservative but it doesnt matter. This is the drug that was a controversy about whether to upgrade a lot of people feel its a good drug used for memory, for alzheimers. Okay. But the numbers were disappointing. And that franchise looks like it is under attack. And thats why the stock, i think more importantly is down because you need to see everything go higher with allergan because you need to see everything go higher with every drug company. But that is disappointment. Its like one of these things like we dont need no dividend, kimosabi, i want growth. If i want dividend, ill go to pfizer. So i think his share base doesnt really want this. No, separately he has initiated this investment acquisition cycle where they seem to be taking a lot of shots of smaller nature as opposed to going for one big one. Yes. I know a number of people believe that is the right approach because all you need is one home run. Yes. Now, hes going after hes doing irritable bowel, opt moll ji, whos he going after . Valeant. So the analysts want him to start hyping those. Hes not hyping that. But hes got this legacy business for nomenda and i think thats hurting him. My travel trust, i like allergan, i think hes being ham strung by the way botox was 14 . Thats fine. Re restasis, thats fine. Thats not the issue. Its this namenda and now people are saying wait a second is he giving a dividend because hes masking, lacking in growth. Thats another, paying dividends, investing, these have come facebook doesnt pay dividends. They dont have to. No. They dont need no stinking dividends. Anything below 195 on allergan is going to take you back to 2014 easily. So were watch thag. My god, is that the level . What the heck is happening here. Square we havent done. Nine cent loss was narrower than expected. Revenue ahead. They raised their guide as we mentioned. Online lending getting some chatter up 70 . Theyve now extended 1 billion in loans. I have gone over and over and theyve convinced me that theyve convinced me that their online lending is not as risky because they have a call on your cash register. They have a call on your cash. They actually see your receipts. And a member on their board from goldman. The former cfo. Who is perhaps the most conservative of people i have been, you know, great cfo after goldman. Has jack convinced you after no, not that jack. This is the other people. No, but has dorsey convinced you he can do two things at once given their quarters . You mean like chew gum and walk . Sort of. Tweet and lend. No comment. I know a guy who often does no comment, right . You dont usually no comment. I no comment all the time. I no commented i think in 2008 i think there was a brief moment about ten years ago. Thats true. Well, now we have another. Yeah, that was twice in a decade. Thats frequent. Thats a lot. Thats a lot. Guys, real quickly there is an ipo at the nasdaq, gds, its data centers in china. High Performance Data Centers in china. Just interesting i mention i think it priced about 10. Spent 200 million. Keep an eye on it this morning curious it suffered because of zto last week so the pricing came down on this gds. Yeah. That was, that zto, they were really noisy. You know what that was when they were noisy . Thats full of sound and fury signifying nothing, shakespeare. You have to replace put the s on for savings. Zts, not zto, right . Yes. Im doing everything i can here. You shakespeared seamlessly. How is bard doing . Its holding up pretty well. Lets get to bob pisani and see whats moving on the floor. Dows down 40. Mixed market, carl. Asia and europe weaker, i want to concentrate on the u. S. Here though. Weve got a problem with oil, i know everybodys obsessed with the election and the fed, down, banks also a bit weak here, mixed market elsewhere, but a lot of discussion about oil impacting the market here. Remember what weve got here we had to build inventory overnight. Well see what the numbers are this morning. Russia production has been strong. Theres overproduction elsewhere, libya, nigeria also reports of them overproducing, so we got a lot of oil in the world right now. Take a look at oil stocks. Its been a rough five or six trading sessions for these, but hess, marathon, murphy, everything is down 1 to 2 . Keep an eye out in oil. A lot of earnings today. I want to concentrate on kate spade because discussions about whats going on with retail, the stocks have been terrible performers recently. They did have decent numbers beat by a nickel. They reaffirmed their full year revenue and eps guidance. Heres the comment from the ceo thats interesting though, in the Third Quarter several Macro Economic factors including a challenging retail environment continuing towards headwinds impacted our results. Thats from craig leavitt, the ceo over there. You might think its hard to belie believe, but stifel said relatively weak october sales due to warm weather and distractions from the election. Maybe people arent going out as much because theyre watching the election news. Look at retail this quarter, a very tough time. Kate spade down 6 now. Abercrombie down 8 . This is for the quarter beginning october. Penney, dillards, let me move on to the ipos. You heard david talking about gds and hes right, this is second disappointment. Price talk 12 to 14, high Performance Data Centers, this is a pure tech play on china. So last week was a consumer play and a little bit on ecommerce with zto, this one is a pure tech play. And even that didnt quite make it here. Were waiting for it to open over at the nasdaq. Remember what happened with zto, thats the Packaging Company last week, they priced aggressively at 19. 50, zto opened at 18. 40. Essentially is trading right around 16 right now. So thats a clear disappointment. So two chinese ipos, two different areas of the market, youre going to hear a lot of people talking about whats going on in china, how desirable it is at this point and whats going on with the economy overall out there. Finally, remember the fed today, they have been moving the markets, higher rates have definitely been playing with stocks for the last several weeks here. Heres the key statement, the one that everybody wants to see whether theyre going to expound upon. The Committee Judges that the case for increase in fed funds rate has strengthened but decided to wait for further evidence of continued progress towards its objectives. So were expecting to hear the usual lines, economys improving, labor markets slack narrowing. I think well be very interested to see whether theres still three dissents out there. Nobodys expecting them to do anything but building the case for more rate hikes or another rate hike in the month of december. That will be up 2 00 this afternoon. Right now dow down 31 points. Back to you. Thanks for that, bob pisani. And speaking of the fed lets check in with Rick Santelli at the bond pits in chicago. Busy day, rick. Absolutely. Trust me, down here very few are speaking of the fed. I think Robert Heller yesterday said it best when we were on together, said why do they even have a meeting a week before an election . I think its a great question. I dont know the sub text to that will be because theyre a bureaucracy, i dont know, you have to judge for yourself. Lets look at some oneweek charts, shall we . Oneweek of tenyear rates, top of the range easing back down. Once again maybe the 1. 70s or the high 1. 70s, low 1. 80s, that seems to be the new home base the way the low 1. 50s were for the entire month of august. Bunds very similar pattern. You could even say a little more aggressive. They havent really come downright to the bottom of the range, but were splitting basis points there. Gilts, you know, hovering still above 1. 22, easing back. Italian as well. You know, they have issues regarding their vote coming up on december 4th. So we want to monitor this, spain, greece, brexit all of it because in many ways its the same threat what well be looking at next tuesday. Finally the dollar index. I tell you what, if youre a technician, it doesnt get any prettier than this chart. You know, so friday for the weekly close we closed under 98. 63 where we settled in 2015. This week on halloween we go right up, right up to that level and test it and backed away, so we continue to move lower. So you know where youre offsides in trader jargon, that would be pivot youre supposed to Pay Attention to. Carl, back to you. Rick, well see you soon. Rick santelli in chicago. One teams jinx is going to end tonight when the cubs and the indians play game seven of the world series. Tonight. Yep. In cleveland. But theres already been a big winner. Well explain that in a few moments. Dows down 21. Im only in my 60s. Ive got a nice long life ahead. Big plans. So when i found out medicare doesnt pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. Then i got a Medicare Supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if youre eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80 of your part b medical expenses. The rest is up to you. Call now and find out about an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. To me, relationships matter. Ive been with my doctor for 12 years. Now i know ill be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, youll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. Plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. So dont wait. Call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare. And which aarp Medicare Supplement plan might be best for you. Theres a wide range to choose from. We love to travel and theres so much more to see. So we found a plan that can travel with us. Anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only Medicare Supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an Organization Serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. Remember, all Medicare Supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesnt pay. And could save you in outofpocket medical costs. Call now to request your free decision guide. And learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now and down the road. I have a lifetime of experience. So i know how important that is. It will be do or die tonight for both teams in the 2016 world series after the cubs tied up the series at three games a piece with last nights 93 victory over the indians in cleveland. Baseball has been on a winning front on the ratings front 23. 5 Million Viewers for game five. Thats 5 million more than the overtime dallasphilly sunday night football by 32 win for baseball. I saw that. Major market gain, football. We actually had a pool on who was going to do we were shocked because i thought baseball had been on the decline. No, and these teams, america loves underdogs. And you got two underdogs. Yep. Heres a shot of progressive stadium there. Game seven. A game seven is awesome, right . Theres nothing like a game seven world series. This has been great for fox. Rooting for key. Who . Cleveland bank. Im rooting for eaton and key, those are my players. Well, okay. Well, you want to root for boeing and im rooting for the cubs. Sorry, cleveland. These are about companies. Has nothing to do all right. Well, im rooting for the cubs. Im going to watch. Fly the w, jim. You have to stay focused. Talking about cleveland Great American bank. All i think of is lebron james when i think of cleveland. When you think of philadelphia what team do you think of . What team do i think of . Flyers. Comcast. Well get stop trading with jim in a minute. Dows down some 12 points. Dont go away. [burke] at farmers, weve seen almost everything, so we know how to cover almost anything. Even a rodent ridealong. [dad] alright, buddy, dont forget anything [kid] i wont, dad. [captain rod] happy Tuesday Morning captain rod here. Its pretty hairy out on the interstate. Traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. Getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. December 14th, 2015. And we covered it. Talk to farmers. We know a thing or two because weve seen a thing or two. We are farmers. Bumpadum, bumbumbumbum weand sustainability goals asool one of our top priorities. Mental i definitely rely on pg e to be an energy advisor. Anything from rebates, to how can we be more efficient . Pg e has a number of programs, to help schools save on energy. When i see a program that fits them, then i bring it to them. With the help of pg e weve been able to save a tremendous amount of energy and a tremendous amount of money. Were able to take those savings and invest it right back into the classroom. Together, were building a better california. Ive spent my life planting a sizesix, nonslip shoe into that door. On this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. But these days its phones before forks. They want wifi out here. But behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. Wifi pro from comcast business. Public wifi for your customers. Private wifi for your business. Strong and secure. Good for a door. And a network. Comcast business. Built for security. Built for business. Time for cramer and stop trading. I want to talk about hacked emails, cramer style. Colin powells hack, email had an interesting piece about in that list was tableau data, theres no interest whatsoever to buy tableau data, further i will tell you that was one of the worst quarters of the year given the fact the Company Initially this is something you usually dont hear, a guy actually admitted it was disappointing. We had a great quarter, fabulous quarter and wait until the end the guidance, well, in light of the quarter, which was soft, no. Right up front disappointing quarter and didnt land a lot of big business. Talk about extended sales cycle, means we havent closed anything. So it was no close quarter and tableau data not going to get bought by salesforce. Theres my hacked email for the election. Okay. No readthrough for anything else from tableau . Readthrough better get a new salesforce. Whoa. That was not a good quarter. Second time remember they screwed up in february. Now linkedin screwed up that same day and got a bid for microsoft. I dont see a savior for the bid. Tableau, please fix your website when you go to your ad about a company that involves recipes. The player isnt working. Its kind of hard. Whats on mad tonight . Okay. We have a company that actually said that macro concerns were bothersome. Clorox. Benno dorer is a great executive. Stock is down, and i find it similar what people say macro concerns when it comes to clorox, but this has been a continual theme. These stocks the Consumer Staples have had macro issues. There are a lot of other things clorox does, i think the worlds going to use ultimate floor, thats what i use, actually dupont makes a lot of this stuff. Do you know what ultimate floor is . No. Ultimate floor . You got to spend a day with me get up at 3 45. Are we going shopping or help you clean . There therebywill be a three last night was my wifes birthday, brought home kentucky fried chicken, everybody was happy. Definitely going to kfc after all this. Something with bleach apparently. More on the election as it continues to impact the markets and well continue to talk to Spencer Rascoff on the heels of sill zill zillows earnings. Is it because so many go after it the same way . Chasing after short term returns. Instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the Investment Managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with riskmanagement rigor, to seek out global opportunities. We manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the worlds leading investors. Partner with pgim. The Global Investment management businesses of prudential good wednesday morning. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Im Carl Quintanilla with sara eisen, david faber at the new york stock exchange. A lot to get to today. Weve got a fed statement coming out in just a few hours. A lot of earnings to get to as well. Some m as on the docket, were watching oil and keeping an eye on a lot of these election polls. Right now the dow is down 15. Our road map for the hour begins with a final countdown. Just six days to go until the election, a new poll has the candidates neck and neck. Plus the fed wrapping up that meeting statement at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time what clues will be given for a rate hike. Well be joined by former fed governor. And ecommerce giant alibaba rising beating on both top and bottom lines. We dig through those numbers straight ahead. Less than one week to go until election day and new poll shows the candidates in a dead heat. Our eamon javers joins us this morning with the latest on that. Hey, eamon. Good morning, carl. You do get the feeling that this race is tightening in the last final days here ahead of novembers election next week. Take a look at this the Washington Post abc poll out today and you get a sense of where they have it anyway. Hillary clinton at 46, donald trump at 46. Thats a dead heat. That poll was conducted between october 28 and 31st. Gary johnson at the bottom at 3 , jill stein at just 2 . And then take a look at the battleground map of the country and you see a picture where Analysts Expect as of right now that Hillary Clinton has enough is on her way to having enough Electoral College votes to win. 270 needed to win. This is the real clear politics map. Theyve got Hillary Clinton at 246. Trump at just 164 and 128 in the tossup category. Nbc news battleground map has Hillary Clinton at 274 Electoral College votes, trump at 180, but thats up from 157 in mid october. So the spread here is narrowing. The race is tightening. The question is whether the overall trend line that weve seen for the past several weeks and months will hold or whether we will see Something Different here. There you see Hillary Clintons Electoral College votes needed to win in battleground states as nbc news has it this is 274 for Hillary Clinton, 180 for donald trump, tossup 84. So, guys, a tightening picture as we go into the election with less than a week out. Eamon, thank you for that. Joining us at post nine, former white house aide keith boykin and cnbc contributor larry kudlow. Good to have you back together again. Good morning. So that news has gone your way, larry, as well as some of these aca premiums, i assume. Are you feeling better about trumps chances . I am, i am. A lot because by the way besides all this other stuff, hes been on message for six, seven, eight days which is the eighth wonder of the world. Hes actually stayed on message. Youre not supposed to laugh at that. But hes talking about draining the swamp in washington, getting the corruption out. Hes really assaulting obamacare, which i think is an extremely unpopular issue. Hes even talking about tax cuts and Economic Growth and taking regulatory shackles off of business. A very powerful message. As my pal wrote in the wall street journal this morning, the business about hillary and huma and her crazy husband and the possibility of a redo on the entire investigation all of a sudden makes her the unsafe candidate. People thought she would be okay. She would have certainty. She knows how to handle government. That has all changed. And what you got here ill quit in a minute, you got democrats out there, hillary out there, lets see, theyre attacking comey, whos not really on the ballot. Right. Theyre attacking vladimir putin, whos not on the ballot. I heard my great friend James Carville attacking kgb, whos not on the ballot. So which is a better message, okay . Which is a better message going into the final days . Are these attacks bringing out Alicia Machado the answer, keith . I dont know if its the answer. It certainly helps to encourage women voters to remind them who donald trump is. I think larrys engaging a bit of Wishful Thinking here about the campaign. I mean, Hillary Clinton has a lead right now thats bigger than Barack Obamas lead over mitt romney at this point in 2012. Shes in a good position. Shes leading in almost all the polls. And i think if you look at the Electoral College map she has the advantage. The structural advantage. I mean, obama won 332 electoral votes in his last election. Hillary clinton could lose florida, could lose ohio, could lose virginia, all those states combine still win it. I think shes doing well in states where she wasnt expected to do well like north carolina, state states, shes challenging in arizona, although i agree the obamacare issue will have an impact in arizona probably. But shes actually competitive in georgia. And utah is a competitive state. So the race is much more fluid than we expect it to be maybe a week or so ago. But the fundamental dynamics have not changed. This times piece this morning that africanamericans are now turning out in early vote because theres the lack of enthusiasm the way there was for obama in 08 and 12, do you buy that . I mean, thats to be expected. We had a historic figure on the ballot for the last two elections, barack obama hey, i dont know, historic figure. Cover of usa today women define the 2016 election. This is a historic figure as well. But thats exactly the point. The africanamerican vote may not be as enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton as it was for barack obama, but they are, i think, more enthusiastic against donald trump than they were against mitt romney or john mccain. And the womens vote is actually more influential in this election because women are the majority of the population. Women are decisively in favor of Hillary Clinton. So the alicia michado decision makes sense. And 2,500 people early voted. A lot of those votes came in before the fbi story, before any of the trump on message in the past six or seven days. In terms of the last thing larry said about uncertainty, market uncertainty and all tharks the idea you can have a candidate for president who might be president of the United States and we consider it the eighth wonder of the world he can stay on message for eight days or six or seven days, thats i dont know the word. Its astonishing. You have to understand, this has been heavy lifting. I will say this, i want to come back to the other issue of hillary is now the unsafe candidate. Because youre running in to literally constitutional issues, potentially constitutional issues. Remember, this investigation is going to go on for awhile. She could win. She could be inaugurated. And the investigation is tistil going to go on in those circumstances she will not be able to go across the aisle to make deals, she will have to be held hostage by the far left wing of her party. And frankly weve never seen anything like that. Does she pardon herself . Does obama pardon her . All this stuff is damaging her. Youre right about the structural advantage. She has a much better ground game than donald trump. I completely agree. On the other hand, his polling momentum show i mean the guy was down 11 points, eight, nine days ago. Hes now running basically even. Now, those National Polls will trickle down into the state battleground polls. So we dont know that. Its a bit of an inside street, but its doable. Were going to be on Election Night here states like colorado, for example. Could trump win that . I dont know. Its up in the air. Arizona, im giving trump north carolina. Really . Im giving him florida, giving him ohio. Still not enough for him to win the election. Im not giving him michigan, im not giving him pennsylvania. Im not giving him wisconsin. And he needs one of those states if hes going to win. Can i respond to larrys constitutional crisis issue . Sure. Hes got to win a cluster. Ill get back to that. Constitutional crisis, two points, in 2007 we had constitutional crisis because george bush won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote. He was still able to come in and rule the country with some sort of mandate. I dont think that will be an issue for Hillary Clinton. The second part about this issue is donald trump is facing 75 civil lawsuits, pending lawsuits against him right now. Including a child rape trial, including a civil fraud trial from trump university. That is unprecedenunprecedented. Weve never had a president of the United States with 75 pieces of litigation against him on the day hes elected. That could provoke a constitutional crisis. New york cio, it cant. I appreciate the talking points. Is that not true, larry . No, i dont think there are 75. Oh, 74, 73, more than 70. Keith, this is a criminal investigation. They will undoubtedly impanel a grand jury, which always sits, just has to be directed. Who said anything about a grand jury . Theyre simply looking at emails from somebody whos not even a staff member. They are going to the spouse of a staff member. Reinterview all of the people. Larry, you must have some connection with the fbi, i dont know. Ive never heard anybody say this before and ive been watching this news from the this is coming out of the fbi. Larry. The new York Police Department had this information two months ago. Not only information about humas and weiners computer, they also had information about the Clinton Foundation. And the Clinton Foundation may yet become yet another legal issue where theyre going to have to call witnesses. Theyre going to have to remove immunity. I dont want to get hung up in this. Im not an attorney. You raised an issue, a provocative issue and say i dont want to get hung up on it. You just threw out a fireball out there about the Clinton Foundation, meanwhile the Trump Foundation is actually violated the law, theyve been required to cease and desist fund raising here in new york state by the attorney general. And they violated the federal law tax law, they had to pay a penalty to the irs it was not violated. Paying the attorney general in florida oh, for heaven sakes. Why is the foundation paying why is the foundation making a political contribution go ahead, larry. Both of you are talking investigations, probes, its no longer about tax policy its not. That you have to write. Hang on a second i want to ask about trade. Were not going to have time. This is my opening gambit. As i said, weve got eight or nine solid days of issues from mr. Trump. This is important. I think draining the swamp of corruption in washington is a huge issue. And i think hillary is falling into that issue. Hes also talking about obamacare, which is probably the most unpopular thing in the world. Hes also talking about tax cuts and growth, okay. Hes getting that out. Hes gaining on this. Now, i agree, sara, youre going to beat me up. I tweeted, i dont agree with mr. Trump on trade. And i tweeted i agree with the chairman of the harvard economics department, former chairman of the council of economic advisors. I dont think the trump camp gets trade. I dont think they understand trade deficits are not the end and be all because they forgot about capital inflows, okay. The last guy to have a trade surplus was papa bush, that was in the middle of a recession. I dont want that. If i buy from you, if i buy from you, i get your whatever, tshirt, you get my cash, right . Sure. What are you going to do with that cash . Recirculate it. Pay down debt. Recirculate it. Capital inflows are the flipside of trade deficits. Peter navaro, a good friend of mine, doesnt get that i thought your tweet is very noteworthy. Thats the most important part of his Economic Policy though and you disagree with the most fundamental part of Donald Trumps philosophy. No, most fundamental part is tax cuts how often does he talk about trade . He talks about trade far more often than he talks about trade. This is good. This is all good, but you guys are going to get another chance in the next five days. Keith boykin, larry kudlow, thanks so much. Thank you. Civil. Special election coverage tuesday night november 8th starting at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time. Could be a long night, for all of you. When we come back were going to continue our election coverage. Former office depot ceo and the ceo of the committee for Economic Development steve odland will be joining us to talk about which candidate will be best for business, the economy and more. And its fed day. The fed wrapping up its twoday meeting. Well hear from former fed governor mark olson. Much more ahead on squawk on the street. The dow is down about six points. Stay with us. Pursuit of healthi. It begins from the second were born. Because, healthier doesnt happen all by itself. It needs to be earned every day. Using wellness to keep away illness. And believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. As a Health Services and Innovation Company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. So while the world keeps searching for healthier were here to make healthier happen. What . Pony neighing] hey gary. Oh. Whats with the dogsized horse . Im crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. Isnt that right warren . Well, you could get support from thinkorswims inapp chat. It lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you dont need a comfort pony. Oh, so what about my motivational meerkat . Inapp chat on thinkorswim. Only at Td Ameritrade. Welcome back to squawk on the street. The feds twoday meeting wraps up today with a policy Statement Due at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. Fed chair janet yellen not scheduled to give a News Conference this month. Joining us to discuss though what clues could be in that statement, pimcos Strategic Advisor and our very own Steve Liesman in washington. Richard, do you expect the explicit guidance that the fed gave us exactly this time last year before they hiked in december saying they were considering doing it at, quote, the next meeting . Thats a great question because obviously theyve done that before. And certainly i and probably steve will be looking for that. That would be a very, very blunt hint that theyre ready to go in december. Conversely, if they leave that out it shows that theyre less certain than they were a year ago about a hike. So either way it will be interesting to see how the statement reads. Steve, how certain are they about hiking in december at this point . I think theyre pretty certain now. I mean theres still a couple jobs reports to come before that meeting they have. As to the language, you know, rich, i was looking at it this morning and im thinking, you know what, maybe they dont have to change a thing. They wont be exactly honest. When they say that theyre waiting for more evidence, i dont think theyre waiting for more evidence, i think theyre waiting for the election to be over. But i dont think theyll say that in their statement. I think theyre going to say its continued to strengthen and waiting for more evidence. They may change it, but im not sure they need to. What should the fed do to avoid its already been dragged into the election in politics. Donald trump has already personally gone after janet yellen for keeping Interest Rates low. But what kind of language do they need to avoid today to see they are waiting for the election outcome . I think as usual steve hits the nail on the head. They dont want to admit it, but i think the timing of this meeting for them essentially takes this meeting off the table. And i think as a result there will be a bias to keep the language pretty close to september just to show this is course and ignoring the election. The risk of changing the language a lot hey, rich . Yeah. I think one thing that could happen is the dissenters could throw their colleagues a bone. If they did not dissent today, it would mean they agree with the case essentially that this was not the time to hike. So watch Esther George and mester, do they dissent or withdraw their dissent temporarily. And that might be a change for slightly stronger language for a hike in december. Its a good point, rich. Last time around it was a 73 vote in favor of holding rates unsteady, unchanged. Yeah. And weve certainly seen before people dissent and in a later meeting not dissent. But i guess going into this i expect the dissents to continue. Be sort of awkward to dissent for a rate hike in september, sit on the sidelines in november and vote for the rate hike at the next meeting. I think its tricky either way. I expect the dissents to continue. Investors are trying to figure out as the trump odds do rise today what it means for the markets and the economy. Clearly weve seen the impact on the mexican peso. What is pimco telling clients as far as the risk right now . Basically what were saying is obviously theres a lot of uncertainty right now. And were essentially going to wait until after the election. We dont think it makes sense to go chasing opportunities, you know, based upon the latest poll or fbi tweet. So for the most part we recognize its an uncertain time. Were positioned, we think, appropriately. But were not chasing anything right now. Did the move on the tenyear to 1. 87 usher in a new window . Or is all of this now because were so close to the election more noise than anything . Well, we have had an increase in rates. And we dont think thats unexpected because, you know, the fed will likely be hiking later this year. A lot of the decline in rates earlier this year were due to external developments, concerns about china, concerns about declining oil prices. So a gradual normalization upward in bond yields is something that we expect. Steve, one of the questions weve been looking into and talking to our guests about is what does the bond market do in the event of trump winning the election . Are u. S. Treasuries as safe, or are they the ultimate safe haven if theres a selloff in equities . What are you hearing . What ive seen so far is that treasuries tend to rally when the probability of donald trump winning goes up and equities go the other way on that. Look, these are very this is very uncertain science. There was a paper written that talked about a very large double digit affect on the s ps and also very large affect on the peso and other currencies. My best guess is that these will be temporary effects and that things will smooth out over time. In fact, if you look at the way the vix is priced, its nearterm more expensive than later term. What theyre looking for is theyre sort of anticipating some kind of panic on the front end and then things to stabilize over time after that. We have though seen a move in the dollar, rich, against some of the major currencies lower. It is not being bought as a safe haven as the odds of trump go up. Yeah. What does that tell you . I think thats right. I think that the dollar calculus is very much a function of the fact that the markets correctly perceive that this fed does not want the dollar to get too strong. They saw a year or two ago that as the dollar rallied it hurt exports, lower expectations thats why i think were only going to get one hike this year. So the dollar call in part is a call on a very gradual liftoff for the fed, sara. You know the blue dots in september ratcheted down again. Even though theyre hiking, its a very gradual liftoff the dollar is a big reason. The question now is how many next year. Thats going to determine decembers baked in 75 odds. Where are you on that at . Well, the fed has indicated that at least via the dots for all their imperfections that certainly given their view for the economy two hikes they think would be appropriate. And that sounds reasonable to us as well. Again, the economy itself probably could adjust, but when you have the impact on the dollar and on other parts of the global economy, that does limit the feds liftoff. Sure. I just say on that, sara, watch the Unemployment Rate. If we continue to produce jobs in the 150,000 range and the Unemployment Rate does not go down, i think thats going to limit the amount of tightening the Federal Reserve thinks the economy needs. They seem very interested in this idea of running a High Pressure economy, very interested in the amount of slack, see if they can draw some of that slack back into the labor market. Well get those job numbers on friday. And the fed before that. Richard clarida, good to see you. Thanks. Steve, thanks as well. Well see you a lot this afternoon. You can watch all the fomc coverage right here on cnbc. As we go to break, take a look at shares of yelp surging more than 12 as it reports a surprise profit for the quarter. Well get more on todays earnings including alibaba, gold by the way just cracked 1,300. Were back after a break. Important than your health. Or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. So if you have medicare parts a and b, consider an aarp Medicare Supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. Like all standardized Medicare Supplement insurance plans, these let you choose any doctor who accepts medicare patients. Youre not stuck in a network, because there arent any. Plus, these plans help cover some of the part b medical expenses medicare doesnt pay. So why wait . Call now to request your free decision guide and find the aarp Medicare Supplement plan that works for you. Like all Medicare Supplement plans, youll be able to stay with the doctor or specialist you trust, or look for someone new as long as they accept medicare patients. But unlike other plans, these are the only ones of their kind endorsed by aarp. Rates are competitive. So call today. And learn more about choosing the doctors youd like to see. Go long. Take a look at shares of alibaba. Interestingly they had been up as much as 2. 5 in the early going after the chinese ecommerce giant reported better than expected numbers. Now as you see and perhaps because the Broader Market is also down more than it was earlier only putting up a slight gain at this point. Interestingly shares of yahoo are actually up more than alibaba. Remember yahoo continues to own that 15 stake in alibaba and does usually mirror its moves. As for the quarter itself it looked to be a pretty good one. Adjusted ebitda margin was 62 . China retail marketplace revenue was up 40 year over year. Its overall revenues because that includes Cloud Computing for example which is a fast growing business for the company up 55 year over year. Mobile continues to be the key platform. Mobile average users 450 million of them Monthly Average users, excuse me, on mobile, in september of 16. That was up about 30 year over year. Transaction prices also increasing, so margin, monetization, all positive. Alibaba stock price, well, its hanging in there as we said, guys, but not a particularly strong response to what some argue is a strong report. There does continue to be i hate to say concern but at least some questions about how much investment theyre going to keep making and whether their investments over time will pressure margins. That 40 number on ecommerce, that stands out in a time when were all wondering what the Chinese Consumer is doing. It reminds me of when i talked to david taylor at p g. He brought up alibaba a number of times in terms of focusing ad spending. When i asked about the Chinese Consumer, he said theyre all moving online. Youre still seeing the 10 , 20 , 30 growth, its just not being tracked in terms of stores consumer products. This seems to jive exactly with that. It is interesting. Of course so much of that is mobile. When you think about this is by far the largest platform and 450 Million People are using it at least once a month to do business. All right. When we return, which candidate will be best for business . Well talk to two ceos and get their take. Much more ahead on squawk on the street. The s p 500 down about 0. 25 . Well be right back. Its your tv, take it with you. With directv and at t, watch all your live channels, on your devices, datafree. Switch to directv and lock in your price for 2 years. Offers starting at 50 month. Anything worth pursuing hard work and a plan. At baird, we approach your Wealth Management strategy the same way to create a Financial Plan built to last from generation to generation. Well listen. Well talk. Well plan. Baird. Did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back . Say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. Comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet thats 10 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. Say hello to internet speeds up to 150 mbps. And add phone and tv for only 34. 90 more a month. Call today. Comcast business. Built for business. Good morning everybody. Im sue herera. Here is your cnbc news update this hour. Two Iowa Police Officers were shot to death early this morning in separate ambushstyle attacks while they were sitting in their patrol cars. Police say that they have identified 46yearold Scott Michael greene as a suspect in the killings, describing him as armed and dangerous. In indonesia, police say at least 20 people were killed when a speedboat carrying indonesian workers home from malaysia capsized in stormy weather. 39 people were rescued. Leaders of u. S. And israeli liberal groups rallying for equal prayer rights scuffled with a dozen Orthodox Jewish protesters at a key jewish holy site in jerusalem. They wanted israel to implement a government decision to officially establish a mixedgender prayer area at the western wall. And there will be a game seven in cleveland tonight. The cubs keeping their championship hopes alive by beating the Cleveland Indians 93 last night. Cubs shortstop Addison Russell hitting the first grand slam in the world series in 11 years. We will see. Well know tomorrow. Thats the news update this hour. Lets send it to Jackie Deangelis with the eia inventory report. Good morning, sue. All Traders Keeping an eye on this report. It was a massive build in crude oil inventories, even more than we saw from the api last night. The department of Energy Reporting a 14. 4 million barrel build in crude. And a 2. 2 million barrel gasoline draw. So usually sometimes those offset each other. In this case that builds so severe sending us to a new session low of 45. 01. Obviously a lot of support at that 45 level, so its very critical. But we were trading 45. 80 before that. So you could see the big impact that this number had. There is a bullish factor out there, thats demand right now. Demand is about 3 higher than it was last year. Implied demand that is. At the same time the bearish factors continue to be the struggle that were having with the stronger dollar and also the fact that opec countries again appear to not agreeing on this output freeze that they discussed in algiers and told the market about. So thats something that could take us lower. Now, what you need to dig into in this report is the import number. A lot of traders are watching that closely. Those numbers have been low. If theyre higher, thats contributing probably to the build that we saw. And thats different than if were seeing u. S. Production actually increase. So something to keep in mind. But again, 14. 4 Million Barrels really a massive build when it comes down to it. Even for this time of year. Back to you at post nine. Jacqkjackie, thanks so much. Jackie deangelis. Improved odds for a potential trump presidency, its worth asking the question just what would a trump in the white house mean for business . And does his rhetoric give any indication about how he would govern . Mark cuban weighed in on that issue yesterday on squawk alley. Take a listen. I was very supportive of the fact that he was candid, open, you know, said what was on his mind, unscripted. But thats not who he is anymore. You know, hes 100 scripted. Hes not so much candid anymore particularly when it comes to issues. The things he originally talked about even though i disagreed with him vehemently, immigrants and the wall and all that nonsense, he barely even talks about it anymore. Joining us this morning former office depot ceo current head of the committee for Economic Development steve odland joins us. Steve, good to have you back. Good morning, carl. Cubans point is that the market is not equipped to discount whatever trump says. Do you think thats true . Well, look, i think trump is a different animal. You know, people keep talking about him as a businessman, but hes a certain flavor. Hes a commercial real estate developer. And as a former retail ceo, i understand these developers. They all sound the same way. So, you know, hes not a diplomat. Hes not a government official. He doesnt come at things in, you know, a nice way. He comes at things with a deal in mind. And his deal entry point is always very far to one side. And it sounds crazy. Whenever people say, well, its crazy, or its nuts or irrational, it means they dont understand the basis of operations. He comes at things from that perspective. But he always makes a deal. And i think this is what people are underestimating. He always gets to a deal. So when he talks about building a wall and theyre going to pay for it, thats an opening entry in a negotiation. When he says canadas going to pay for a pipeline, when he says were going to renegotiate all the deals, were going to get better deals, all of these things are startding points in his mind. Now, thats an unorthodox way of approaching government work or diplomatic work, but it is his way, its what he knows and its how hes been successful in business. Well, whats unusual is that those opening bids are so public, right . So i assume youre saying the market should be getting ready for more dislocations because theyre going to be hearing it outloud. Well, i think the market is betting on a Hillary Clinton win. Nate silver 538 still says 71 probability. And the markets kind of show that. But the volatility is increasing. Look at what the vix has been doing. The markets will react more positively because wall street is more favorable to a clinton presidency. Its more of the same. Its an evolution of the obama administration. Its more certainty. Trump however gives you a greater range of possibilities, both on the upside and the downside. And a lot of people are saying, well, that would be better because on the upside, you know, we would then have potentially higher growth when he cuts taxes and relinquishes regulations, cuts back on aca and all the things that are bothering main street Business People. So i think wall street is proclinton, main street is protrump because theyre trying to get out from under the weight of these government regulations. Would you suggest that Small Business is part of that main street that is supporting trump while the bigger fortune 500 companies that do business abroad and are scared of trumps tough talk on trade are not . Yeah. I think thats right. But this is where you have to come back and you have to say, you know, lets interpret this. And i think, you know, trump has scared everybody outside of the United States for sure because theyve never seen anything like this. But if you put everything in the context of a commercial real estate deal, which is how trump thinks, it all becomes normal. And it all becomes logical. And you start saying, okay, it is really an opening bid. There will be a deal. Hes not going to blow up the world. Hes not going to blow up trade. He understands that. But hes not going to give away all his negotiation tactics. Read the book. Its all written in the book. Im not endorsing it. Im just saying its an unorthodox way and a lot of people are stoked by the anger, stoked by the opportunity and the possibility of doing it differently because they think that washington has failed them so far. You know, steve, negotiating like that may work in the real estate industry, but there are certain protocols in relationships between nations and in geopolitics. And, you know, people are not accustom to somebody negotiating over nato or nuclear weapons. That would seem to me interjects a level of uncertainty thats unprecedented. It does. Youre exactly right. He is not a diplomat. Hes not following normal rules, which is why virtually every business person outside of the United States is looking vote for Hillary Clinton because they want somebody who they understand and is working in a normal fashion. Trump just doesnt do that. So im not saying its right. Im just saying you have to understand where hes coming from on this. And so they dont understand it at all. Theyve never seen anything like him. Well, a lot of us havent seen anything like him either. But this is who he is and how he comes at things. But it sounds less scary and more rational, is my only point. When you start thinking about how hes done it. Now, again, a bigger range of volatility in that because, you know, there are upsides and down sides. On a static basis it would produce more debt and deficits. But on a dynamic basis its possible you could get much higher growth and we could grow our way out of it. But i think most Business People are focused on the Corporate Tax rates, focused on regulation, and theyre focused on the debt. And these are the things that we got to get through. When you were ceo and you were looking to make a bid on something, would you have found his method of negotiating in public effective . No. And, you know, we in the Retail Industry have to negotiate all the time with commercial real estate developers. Theyre bombastic, theyre emotional, they come at things in a way that frankly sounds crazy. And i think this is, you know, what trump is all about. But remember, they have something, they buy something, they develop it, they move it somehow, they improve it somehow, they sell. So their entire profit is made on the delta between the buy and the sell. So buy low, sell high. And theyve got to have a lot of drama in between in order to deal with the psychological aspects of trading in that regard. Hes approaching geopolitics in the same way. Is it right . Well, its unconventional. It doesnt seem like the best way to do it. Its not the way anybody else has ever done it. But supporters say maybe it will end up being a better deal for the u. S. , maybe gets us off of the 1 to 2 growth. I think thats why theyre willing to make the bet. You never know if you dont try seems to be the mindset among many, many people. Steve, good to have you. Well be talking again. Thanks. Thank you. Steve odland. Make sure to catch our special Election Night coverage tuesday november 8th starting at 7 00 p. M. Eastern time. Thats right here on cnbc. As we take you to break, take a look at shares of the Network Equipment maker brocade. It is being purchased by chipmaker broadcom, the deal worth about 5. 5 billion including debt. You can see shares of brocade, which had been up already on potential news of the deal or news of the potential deal, up yet again. And the fed wrapping its twoday policy meeting. Former fed governor mark olson will join us after this break. American express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. Find out how American Express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open. Com. Are small cap stocks poin pointing to more pain for the s p 500 . Good question. Find out the answer at tradingnation. Cnbc. Com. More squawk on the street coming up. Whats Critical Thinking like . A basketball costs 14. Whats team spirit worth . cheers whats it worth to talk to your mom . Whats the value of a walk in the woods . The value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. Morgan stanley welcome back to squawk on the street. Markets are lower ahead of todays key fed rate announcement. Thats also weighing on utility stocks overall. The sector is underperforming by relatively decent margin at this point. All components in the index are negative, nrg energy, sempra energy, aes lagging the most. This will be a key sector to watch with the fed in focus this afternoon. Back over to you, sara. And Oil Prices Falling especially hard after that inventory release. Dom, thank you. On that fed note send it to Rick Santelli in chicago with the santelli exchange. Hi, sara. Thank you, mark olson. Thank you, rick. Always glad to be here. My first question do you have any thoughts specifically about todays fed meeting and also maybe express those in the context of the bank of japan, not anywhere near their inflation targets but seemingly out of runway. Maybe thats a bit of an assumption, but your thoughts on those two issues. First of all, i think the meeting today will be a yawn. But i also agree with what Steve Liesman said a few minutes ago. What i think is going to be particularly interesting is to see how last meetings dissenting voters react this time. That may be a signal as to whether or not there was agreement on what theyre going to do in december or no agreement. As to japan, i think japan is a completely different scenario. They have to manage their economy. They have to manage their funds rate. They have to manage their debt in a completely different way than we do in the u. S. So i dont think that will have an impact on Monetary Policy in this country. All right. But you know what, im going to push back just a little bit. Japans variables are completely different. You could argue that the ecbs variables are different. Canada, uk, u. S. , but there is a common denominator like all dissimilar fractions, the notion that the bank of japan has the muscle and theyre not going to turn at Atlas Shrugged that these central bankers think they know more than the markets. These are common denominators. Am i wrong to think if theres not success in that overriding strategy that were all somewhat in the same bed together . Well, what you Just Announced a few minutes ago that the tenyear t is at 1. 8. And what that has told u. S. Investors that inflationary expectations are low. With japan because of the manner in which they manage and control the flow of their debt, you cant get the same you cant get the same reaction. You cant read it the same way. But much more so europe is much more like we are. Canada is much more like we are. You have to put the pacific rim countries and their Monetary Policy i think in a different category. So let me get this straight, mark. If we never in the next two or three years theoretically get to the personal Consumption Expenditure core year over year level of 2 or higher, which is supposedly the trigger for our fed, or the japanese never hit their figure, or the ecb and draghi dont hit their figure, you think we should stay at 25 to 50 basis points on and on and on . No, i do not. Theres no reason at this point why the fed should not be moving back toward a more normalization. Thats one thing disappointed me about some of the recent statements. I dont see the term normalization, but theres no reason not to go now. If you look at it from a different perspective, the gdp is up smartly in the Third Quarter, but that was after a soft First Quarter or second quarter. But on the other hand if you look at the employment numbers, we have 3 million growth in the workforce, 3 million new jobs. And with inflation the coming core inflation coming in just below 2, were exactly where we should be for a rate increase. You know, real quick, were almost out of time, mark. Let me have one final thought here. This notion that in the end its about normalization, ive been talking about that for years. But im taking it back. I dont think you can return to a normal. Things have changed. Things have changed. Just triggering back to normal isnt going to happen. Were now in outer space with regard to policy. And its like star trek, you start over, its a new frontier. These central bankers are going to have to deal with rates, markets have changed, landscapes have changed, strategies changed, banks dont do the finance its all change. Your final thought. Youre exactly right. Youre exactly right. So what im reading and what im hearing is that is not lost on the members of the fed board. And theyre rethinking the correlation between Monetary Policy and the overall economy. And i think we will see fundamental change taking place. You may remember that 50 years ago we were watching the prime rate. We didnt talk about the discount rate, or we didnt talk about fed funds. Its now reversed. Were going to see changes again. All right. Now, since you brought it up, heck of a time. Were going long, are going lon yesterday Robert Heller said there will be nine reserve banks asking for a discount rate hike in his opinion. What i brought up is that sounds reasonable but how does that influence interest on reserves and the pile of cash that has the become the new commercial paper financing market through the reverse repo program . How do those coexist . They coexist but dont react to the same influences. Interest on reserves is a number that is set by the fed. For example, the fed funds rate, the fed sets a target but can only achieve that by what it does in the market place so they function entirely differently. If you raise discount rate 25 basis points that is going to effect the psychology of what people, investors, what these institutions are thinking about when they take their interest on the reserves. That is a function of the fed funds target. The interest on excess reserves that will impact supply available for lending. That is far more significant. Since we are my final question is this. Bob heller had a lot of press saying it is a dumb idea to have a fed meeting a week before an election. Your final thought. Is he right or wrong . I think he is dead wrong. And i think should not adjust that for an election year. Everybody has an opinion. We appreciate hearing yours. Back to you. We appreciate it. Rick santelli. As we head to break take a look at where we are on stocks. The s p 500 declining by about 0. 3 . Energy, utilities and telecom the hardest hit. The vix moving back towards the 20 level. It is higher and mexican peso is down another percent. Much more ahead. Stay with us. 3w4r57 speed always wins. Especially in my business. With slow internet from the phone company, you cant keep up. Youre stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. Switch to comcast business. With highspeed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. You wouldnt pick a slow race car. Then why settle for slow internet . Comcast business. Built for speed. Built for business. Take a look at shares of gds holdings limited. They have priced 19. 25 million shares at 10. This is a reading developer and operator of high Performance Data Centers in china follows disappointing debut last week of the Package Delivery companys eto. Also a large chinese company. Alibaba is gdss largest single customer and they had been anticipating a higher pricing that came in at 10 in part because perhaps on its first trapd and that is not the way it is supposed to go. This hanging in there by 2 cents. Soft ipo. Lets send it over to dominic chu. He has a quick market flash. We talked about the utilities trade. Lets call attention to the ticker kbe down about 1. 5 . The laggers there you have zions. Just up about half a percent. The banks certainly trades to watch as we talk about the fed rate announcement later on today. We will keep an eye on that group. That does it for us here on squawk on the street. Squawk alley is up next. They will be speaking with the ceo of zillow talking earnings, politics and much more. 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