Oil, new highs for the year on brent as that doha meeting approaches this weekend. We begin with the markets and energy. Oil with a year to date high. Stock futures barely in the green. Alcoa out with results. Top line and outlook are dragging down the stock. And two big calls on starbucks and apple. One up. One down. More on those in a moment. Some breaking news from the imf. Downwardly revising its 2016 Global Growth forecast to 3. 2 citing uncertainty and a recovery hampered by weaker demand. The imf sees Global Demand picking up to 3. 5 for next year and forecasting the growth for the u. S. Down 2. 4. It believes longterm Growth Prospects are weaker, estimated to be only 2 . Theyve been a serial cutter in terms of Global Growth outlook. The imf has been saying no one should raise rates. They play a big role in yellens concern. More yellen than the rest of the people on the fed. The imf has been pretty right. When i saw this, we just saw this come over, i said i was hoping they would feel a bit more sanguine. More upbeat about china, about europe. I see some things happening in these places that are positives. But the imf does very, very good work. This is this weak demand story is not going away. And its kind of contrary to what a lot of companies are saying. Which is interesting. Well talk about Klaus Kleinfeld later, but some companies are seeing demand pick up in latin america, certainly in china, in europe. It is a bit of a conundrum. I did not expect this. I thought they would be pretty much it remains, as opposed to its getting weakerment. You have pmis on the manufacturing and services side. Its starting to tick up a bit. The question is whether thats a real Inflection Point or not. I agree. I thought the imf would take into account the last six weeks of data, which have been pretty good. Maybe they are just green chutes, maybe they can go away. The imf is more down beat than i expected. Youre right. Theyve been more downbeat the whole way, but theyve also been right. As we said, stocks are looking to recoup mondays losses as crude is higher. Brent with the highest level so far this year on hopes that Oil Producers will agree to freeze output when they meet in doha on sunday. Dallas fed president rob kaplan was on squawk this morning and believes the december fed rate hike was not a mistake. The move in december was the right move, but well have to be slow and patient. Doesnt mean standing still. I think well make another move sometime in the not too distant future if gdp recovers in the way i expect. People should expect it to be a slow, patient, gradual normalization. So, no, i dont think december was a mistake. Getting seven fed speakers this week. Three alone today. It is rather amazing to me that they all feel compelled to just reiterate or disagree. Its almost like, listen, you call them, theyll talk. You know, does any Federal Reserve guy say, listen, i want do an interview with you. Hes like, no, i want to be quiet now. They make it more interesting for us. A little more punitive for the people at home trying to invest. I thought that was in sync with what yellen was saying. I hate the idea that every day we have to recalibrate. The imf data would indicate he will not get his gdp numbers, and saying gdp will not be strong. On a retail level, i can see that. Retail is not that strong. Yeah. Disappointing. Retail overall. Yeah. Other than home depot, lowes. Thats been the case for a while, jim. I dont know what happened to that gasoline dividend, it didnt make its way into the malls. It didnt. I wonder whether people just that it kind of offset the healthcare premiums that went up. As soon as you say that people say thats a political comment. Im getting from the guys who do taxation. I cover both of the companies that do tax planning, h r block and intuit. Its an issue. Its not a break through issue. You have to get healthcare, healthcare has gone up. When you see unh im not trying to be too all over the place, when you see United Health pulling out of exchanges, you realize theres not enough competition. Whatever you saved at the pump you may be losing at healthcare when the rates went up. Just in terms of covering. Yeah. That was for universal coverage. People say there are a number of expenses that are mandatory now, including your Wireless Phone bill which you didnt previous i will have. So that things are being applied there. Its still somewhat surprising. I think everyone was waiting for it. I know the Credit Card Companies were surprised to see it happen. Credit Card Companies kept thinking at the pump the fees were lower. But, yeah. It didnt come through other than perhaps maybe amazon. We dont know. Yeah. Yeah. Amazon definitely. Amazon definitely. Amazon. Didnt go to sears. No. Apparently it didnt go to sears. Nor to kmart. No. No. They must have had higher gasoline prices, those customers. Always around six minutes past the hour is when we get our sears mention. I remember when we used to go to sears. You could buy a hammer at sear, return it a year later and theyd take it. Unbelievable. I bought a chipper shredder at sears and it was stolen. A what . I think i had a crisis of conscious. Guys, send me a new one. It was stolen. What was stolen . Chipper shredder. I got it after the movie fargo. Hopefully didnt use it for the same reason. Taking care of your enemies. I dont know what you use. Lets move to alcoa. Jim and david have mentioned lowering the fullyear outlook amid weaker Aluminum Prices and plans to cut up to 2,000 jobs. Revenues missed. Alcoa prepares to spin off its engineer products business. Last night Klaus Kleinfeld spoke to jim. We will not make the number we had originally intended for this year, but were working on t trying to get it up to the numbers that we said we would be. As you see, we are making progress. Already compared to last year we are putting an expectation on the second quarter. And you will see we are improving. Lowering the outlook on aerospace, on ebita margin, on revenue and ad segment what do you think . I was disappointed. I know that a lot of the headlines are all that the price of aluminum caused the weakness. I will read something that i fou fou found, the 2016 revenue of 1 billion revised from 1. 6 billion, ebita of 159 million to 170 million. They projected 350 million. This was the most major miss of the division. It was not the price of aluminum i was shocked at. Aerospace, these were problems specific, but they did talk about model shifts at aerospace which would indicate you dont want to own any aerospace company. I dont think thats true. Honeywell didnt talk about this. I know the company is splitting up, but klaus was downbeat. Downbeat about the world, a little imflike, frankly. I finished it the release was late because of problems, the whole thing was a sub optimal situation. What, if anything, does it say did the broader marketplace and or world . You know, klaus is sticking to the idea that theres still going to be a deficit in aluminum. Hes sticking by that. Saying how the chinese continue to produce aluminum. The party may not be as strong as you sometimes think. But what worried me about this was trucks. Remember, aluminum goes into making trucks. The truck numbers were horrendous. I read this, i said you cant own cummins. You have to sell packard. You dont want to be in those. Trucks were weaker than expected. Aerospace, you might say maybe theres a shift. But that was a dramatic decline. This company, i thought, could do about 6 billion in aerospace. I thought it might be the next precision cast parts. After i started reading the deck thats big. Its the biggest because theyre splitting the company. I said you need aluminum to source. You need it like iron, they had a bit of a move. This was not a good quarter. Not a good quarter. I know that they say it was a beat, but it was beaten from cost cuts, not from the top line. Ive been willing to excuse a lot of what ive seen here. This took my breath away. So between alcoa and the imf, are you ready to say you overestimated the pace of the recovery this year . Im ready for one of those seratonin antidepressants. I believe theres a bit of an outlyer. I think the imf is consistently negative. But yes i could not feel good after the alcoa call. Im thinking alcoa has specific problems. My discussion would have been aluminum is weaker, so you may not want the old alcoa, but it was blowout. It wasnt a blowout because they actually had real problems. This was an execution issue. Okay . They failed to execute. I dont think in aerospace this is the first i heard about the big model changeover. They have much more than just the screws now. But this was a terrible execution quarter. Im sorry. It just was. It was not what i thought. It was more execution than economic weakness other than trucks. What accounts for that . What accounts for that . I asked him, i said are you going to address rickson . He said what makes you think i havent . I dont want to work at firth rickson. Im glad i work at cnbc and not firth rickson. More on alcoa and what klaus said when we get back. Downgrades for lb, starbucks, avp and other consumer names. What a bummer. Another look at the premarket. More squawk on the street from post nine in a minute. To the wo, you can fly across town in minutes or across the globe in under an hour. Whole communities are living on mars and solar satellites provide earth with unlimited clean power. In less than a century, boeing took the world from seaplanes to space planes, across the universe and beyond. And if you thought that was amazing, you just wait. We believe in the power of active management. Anagement, we actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. Quite like the human foot. Introducing the 255 horsepower lexus is 300 allwheeldrive. With twentyfive percent more base horsepower. Once driven, theres no going back. Starbucks moving lower in the premarket. Deutch downgrading the chain from buy to hold citing lofty expectations, operational changes and a premium valuation. The firm saying it believes growth in profit and comps are fully priced into starbucks shares which are up 24 in the past 12 months. You have anything wrong with this . Look, i find heres the problem with this kind of downgrade. You have to sell it. If you listen to it, its hedge fundy, you have to sell it here, buy it back at 54, 55. I idea that its valuation is stretched has do with a relative thing, they did introduce a new campaign today, based on dollars, not on visits. Frankly when i read this, i get what hes trying to do. Listen, you made a lot of money here. Its hard to criticize a downgrade like this. Hes also his multiples are not particularly modest. Hes at 17 times the next 12 months ebita, 30 months times the next 12 months, down from 19 and mid 30s. So they have a great growth rate. Samestore sales numbers, amazing. Well see if the guy is right. My travel trust owns it. He also has issue with the new domestic Loyalty Program. Im not sure why. Some people dont like that. They like the per visit Loyalty Program and not the dollar. Thats a controversial move. I do like that starbucks is a great company. If the stock gets hit to 54 or 55, you know, i know my travel trust will buy it. But when i read this davids right. This kind of downgrade i dont mind. It had a big run. If you and you had a buyin. Its not like a value at 27. Very good company. The stock has run. The risk here is can you get back in after you sell it . Do you want the taxation . Thats always the trouble. It does its the latest in a series of downgrades for big cap names ahead of earnings, whether its deutsche, facebook, this one, goinguggenheim on the banks. Were seeing it. I totally agree. The gloom is you have the banks that will have horrible quarters, then these stocks that are flying high. People say wait a second, the average stock is valued way less. But the average stock is being pulled down by the banks. I understand its a negative scenario. Thats why i was trying to take a more positive view saying i dont know anyone who thinks this will be good earnings season. No guy says this will be the worst earnings in seven years. I say, wow what a visioner. So i say i want to temper my negativity as opposed to temper my enthusiasm. Curb your enthusiasm no, negativity. I missed the show. The best. What are you looking at me like that for . I dont know. You always give me a look. I do. I do. Youre not allowed to give me a return look. My role on the show is to give you a look. I thought i could try it. Guess i cant. Goldman has a note on apple today saying its likely to be on the cusp of entering a cycle of earnings upgrades which will see street forecasts moving higher for the first time in six months. The firm calls apple a convictionless buy. Goldman also saying pent up demand for the iphone 7 is high based on its own survey of consumers, and it expects apple to get more share. Comes in the face of this miserable pc shipment report from ibc, down 11. 5. I think mac will not be affected by that. Mac is the preferred way going to college. This goldman notice is interesting, not just because my travel trust is long into it. Im more upbeat on apple than others. Dont trade apple, own it. 44 of respondents intend to buy an iphone 7 this fall. Yesterday we found out how the iphone 5 is doing better. This note is the beginning of what i think is a recognition that we have to look through this quarter. Lowell mcadam from verizon said this would happen. There is pentup demand. Look at multiple. Talking about 11 times earnings. I dont know. I remain convinced this is one of the bargains in the market. But too many people talk ahead of the quarter. Well, what carl mentioned in terms of those pc sales, i wond wonder hp inc. Down 17. 3 in the First Quarter. Dell, private company, up and actually has retaken some market share. Michaels been kind of not sure what that is about. Hes been kind of theyre still in the process of completing the emc deal which will make him a Public Company again in a way. Theyll have public filings because of that tracker. Seagate was up yesterday because of that article. Intel said there would be a shortfall, but they never announced a shortfall, as opposed to juniper. I think the pcs are a diagnosis breed, except for mac. You want to be in the meg whitman hp. Yes. We have to talk about some of this. The enterprises. Im happy to discuss the Sumner Redstone situation with you any time. Did you read the article . I did. I did. Someone calling it like an old School Journal leader. Yeah. Like the old days. They had a great lead, and then the rest was history. It was sad. Well get you up to speed on this redstone piece along with a lot of other things and the opening bell. Cramers mad dash. Another look at prthe premarket. I asked my dentist if an electric toothbrush was going to clean better than a manual. He said sure. But dont get just any one. Get one inspired by dentists, with a round brush head. Go pro with oralb. Oralbs rounded brush head cups your teeth to break up plaque and rotates to sweep it away. And oralb delivers a clinically proven superior clean versus sonicare diamondclean. My mouth feels super clean oralb. Know youre getting a superior clean. Im never going back to a manual brush. I have an orcogram we for an owen. E. Thats me. You should hire stacy drew. She wants to change the world with you. She can program jet engines to talk and such. Her biggest weakness is she cares too much. Thank you. My friend really wants a job at ge. Mine too. Im a wise elf from a far off shire. And sanjay patel is who you should hire. Thank you. Seriously though, stacy went to a great school and shes really loyal. You should give her a shot. Sanjays a team player and uh. All right. A little joe jackson, a little mad dash as we head into a trading day for this tuesday. What is on your mind, my friend . Im feeling defeated today. Dont. Why . Our discussion with carl, i felt like its true. There is negativity here. One of the things that makes me feel defeated is a downgrade of Leslie Wexler. The greatest retailer of our time. Goldman goes from conviction buy not to buy, conviction buy, then buy. Right. We kind of mean it. Right. To a neutral. Oh. Saying last weeks victoria secrets reorganization will pressure nearterm comps. They cut the price target. Then you have that head shoulders pattern that some of the technicians will see. I think this will have power. It already does. At a certain point i want to say look at what Leslie Wexler put together with bath and body works, you have a lot of n non amazonible brands. Its part of this mall concept you refer to i do want to buy here . Let it come in, but im shocked that goldman decided off of this victorias secret note, i thought Leslie Wexler making sense, momentum is gone. This is l brands. This is not sears, this is l brands, a really good company. Right before earnings season today, we have moves based on research. We have to Pay Attention whether it may or may not prove accurate. I thought this was an overreaction and then bounces back, but wow. Im not encouraging anyone to listen to this, to sell it. But im chasing when they downgrade Leslie Wexler, they downgrad downgraded an icon. Not icahn, but icon. Icicoin. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . 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