The german dax down nearly 3 today. Futures down sharply following yesterdays fed decision to stay pat on Interest Rates. Most fed policymakers are not ruling out a rate hike by the end of the year, four of them are forecasting an increase in 2016 or later. At yesterdays News Conference chair yellen outlined her case for holding off on a rate hike. Light of the heightened uncertainties abroad, and the slightly softer expected path for inflation, the committee judged it appropriate to wait for more evidence including some further improvement in the labor market to bolster its confidence that inflation will rise to 2 in the medium term. Jim, some video of you as the decision was coming across the screens. You were excited. Because you did not want them to hike. Now everyone is worried about what theyre calling the third mandate, somehow the rest of the world is driving our Monetary Policy. What i like about it, carl, its over with. We can focus on companies doing well and buy their stocks. This would have been a disaster. I think the market could have been down 500, 600 points quickly. The fact that europe is down is the fact that the dollar has put in a bottom. The euro is going higher. They are fretting over there. We should not take our queue from europe. I like the market up 356 points going into this. Thats dow points. You should repeal that because the brave and intrepid will take profits and well get a level playing field. I dont like the seasonal thing. September is a hard month. Lets pick among the rubble theres some good ones coming. The weeks following are quadruple witching in the latter half of september, they have been down 21 of 25. A tough time were about to head in. Well get earnings not far after that. Is your head worried about whether its october, december, Something Else . I always worry about a Government Shutdown, because Government Shutdown has knocked stocks down about 8 . I got to tell you, carl and david, im more lets say im less worried than i would be of a hike. I have been concerned, like janet yellen, is china falling apart, brazil rolling over. Countries where there would be a contagion not unlike 97 and 98. In that period you went down 17 from peak to trough. I dont think well be down 17 because the fed chose to stand pat. There are those who believe china and particularly on the credit side and the potential losses their bank als will have take because of the slowdown, they will, in fact, be under more pressure that will spread throughout the emerging markets and come back here. Not necessarily bring us into a recession but continue to keep growth rates depressed in the u. S. And perhaps stave the hand of the fed for a while longer while we watch that chinese currency have to deline more from where it is now. Look, this is a great point, david. A lot of people were saying were hostage to china were not hostage to china the rest of the world is not so hot. There was no reason, inflation being so low, that we should stir the pot and create more tu turmoil. A higher Interest Rate could hurt automobiles and housing. Those are the two areas that are strong. Is there something that says when something is strong we have to make it weaker . Thats what a rate hike would have done. I dont think its wrong we should have some industries doing well. We dont want to encourage the fed to say lets pull the plug on those two because theyre doing well. You talked to john stump last night on mad money. Lets take a quick listen. I think todays comments and the activity by the fed or lack of activity was statement about the rest of the world more so than the u. S. When you look at negative rates in some places, slowing in china, the eu doing only okay, thats got a big influence on the Global Economy. He mentions negative rates. Yellen made it clear, they didnt seriously consider that. But there were some on the committee who brought it up. That took some people by surpris surprise. No doubt about it. You look at john stump, john stump is probably the head of what i regard as the most well regarded bank in the world. Has a huge percentage share. He has 95 to 96 of his business is domestic, yet he still felt the idea of his customers could be hurt. Yesterday that stock was down almost 3 . Stump went on to say he felt Interest Rates would be kept lower longer and hes moving out on the curve to get a better return. That interest margin could surprise to the upside. What why do i mention Net Interest Margin . That controls where stocks go. Warren buffett owns almost 10 of this bank. I think Warren Buffett has faith in stump. Its a week where we got dovish comments from the fed. Federal express guidance. Johnson control starting layoffs today. At the same time cable vision, amc, bud, another story of slowing growth. Dont forget hewlettpackard. Yeah. Hp. Im out here in san francisco. Theres a sub text. The sub text is fire people. Most devices and Technology Software ive seen out here is the way to get rid of the executive assistant, middle person, several layers of management. When i listen to meg whitman shes who theyre appealing to you can get rid of 20,000 people and expand your top line and make it so youre your bottom line goes up more because you fired so many people. This is about productivity. The fed is conscious of the fact that Many Companies out here have made it so your cell phone replaces thousands of people. And we have to live with that. Thats what deflation is about. David did a fabulous documentary on amazon. That documentary was about deflation. People who are putting things in boxes at minimum wage. David, you know thats a sub text that is a secular decline in how well people can do in this country. No doubt about it. That is the longterm question, i think, for the ability of the middle class to even stay where it is, jim, create jobs as it is. Youre not even talking yet about automated automobiles, which, of course, its coming. I dont know if you had a chance to visit with travis while you were out there. Whether its uber or whether one day we think about the huge fleet of trucks from the likes of u. P. S. Or fedex, what it will mean if, in fact, many of those jobs go away. I know, im talking years from now, nonetheless these are things you have to wonder about. Each advance in Technology Brings more jobs rather than fewer. Im not necessarily a believer. Im not a believer in that at all. If isaacson were here, he would talk about the beginning of the computer and these mechanical looms, and how the ludites were smashing them because they thought it would kill all the jobs. That did not happen. Textiles and computers created more jobs. We can only hope. I have a hard time seeing it. Maybe it makes it easier for a business to start. I understand the analogy, but the laudites were people who fought problem gres, and i understand that progress is always going to win. Progress in this case is to make it so the enterprise has fewer people and makes more money. When i look at the devices yesterday, i spent about four hours looking at devices and software, the devices and software are about laying off people. Maybe those people can find a job, but are they finding a job at task rabbit . Do they have a bicycle and taking things from point a to point b . Those are loom jobs. Theyre turning people into laudit laudites. Jim what a week its been for you in san francisco. Dream force wraps up today. Jim interviewed the ceo of kales force, fitbit, hes not tonight. Tonight he will have an interview with netflix ceo Reed Hastings, which we may get a taste of later on this morning. You must be excited about that. Im so fired up about this that i just decided to destroy my new home life by staying out here an additional day. Sometimes thats a casualty. That casualty, lets just say ill patch that thing up by sunday. Good. I hope so dont leave her waiting too long. The eagles play. And im dragging the wife to the eagles game. All right, so i destroyed everything. For Reed Hastings, its worth it. Its so funfunny, ive been attending this Goldman Sachs teleconference the last couple days, so much of the conversation ends up being about netflix. Its almost the center of all the concerns in media. That man has an awful lot i want to hear about. Not the least of which, of course, is somehow their ability to turn washington to their advantage so that theyre basically not paying anybody for using up a lot of the band width every night in the United States. Fascinating how hes managed to do that. Not to mention 306r7b8 30 of the bandwidth. This is a populist inspired country. People dont like buffering. I think netflix uniquely said Cable Companies are pro buffering. Thats not true. Nobody likes buffering. The idea that you can go to washington and defend what is a system that hastings has called buffering, i dont know. How you can binge and buffer . Binging and buffering dont go together. Hastings, hes disintermediating cable. They certainly destroyed a lot of jobs at blockbuster, hired a lot of programmers, code writers. And keeping people in hollywood busy. Mexican hollywood, soon italian hollywood, worldwide. On a weekend when the emmys are coming sunday. By the way, i should mention the german dax is down 20 now. Were hitting bare market levels from their april 10th intraday high. Any reason . Theres been some discussion about the fed and whether or not they created more pressure now on the europeanses to increase qe. Hiking here might have given them some cover, thats not enough for you. No, its time that germany says maybe austerity is not good for us. Its not good for the humanitarian crisis theyre having. This would be the time, if the germans are real about being, lets say, hospitable to refugees and trying to solve the humanitarian crisis, its time for them to spend money. Time for them to build roads. Time to start jobs. They got tho do to do it. If they dont, they can be a stagnation engine, as they have been for a long time. Solve the ukraine, too, guys. Thats not helping. Busy morning for you. Woo youre not going anywhere. When we come back, one year ago alibabas pricing so much has happened since its debut. Well look at the past, strength and future. Our eyes on the german dax. Futures here getting softer by the moment. I could get used to this. Now you can, with the luxuriously transformed 2016 lexus es and es hybrid. S p needs to hold 1961 for the week to put two backtoback weeks together. The first time its done that since june. Expirations mean volumes likely to be high and maybe volatility the latter half of the day. One year ago alibaba priced its initial Public Offering which went on to become the largest ever at 25 billion. They debuted on wall street the following day. We spoke with jack ma here at post nine and asked him how big he thinks alibaba could become. Here was his response. We hope next 15 years the world change because of us. We want to be bigger than walmart. Bigger its not the size, we want to learn from walmart. They changed the business the last century. We hope 15 years later that they say this is the company like microsoft, like ibm, that changed the world. After surging to a high of 120 in november of 2014, right on singles day when i was out there, alibaba, as you see, has hit hard times. In fact, falling below its initial Public Offering price of 68 a share. There it sits at 65. Of course, it is still the way to play the chinese consumer, jim. But many people are not interested in playing that now given what appears to be a slow down in the chinese economy. We detailed some of the goings on in the chinese stock market, which many would argue is not really about the chinese economy as much as it is about psychology. Negative piece in barrons, significant response from alibaba, five pages long, detailing the reasons it believes that was an incorrect view of the company. Here we sit at 65. Look, were still stuck with the facts. The Consumer Companies that sell into china tell us its not a bad time. Talking about apple, starbucks and nike. Three different price points, three different kinds of products. Theyre saying we have up to the minute information that things are quite good. Its not a disaster. To be levered to alibaba stock ala yahoo is a disaster. Yeah. Yahoo of course, still trying to deliberate on whether or not go on with its expected spinoff of a roughly 15 stake in alibaba into a separate Company Despite the fact that the irs wont give it a private letter ruling on that. We watched its stock hover around the 30 level. Alibaba at 66. Clearly the multiples have come down. So has the growth rate a bit, no doubt. To you look at this level . I think there are possibilities. I know no one wants to hear this, but that china will eventually get betterment i have never seen a whole country of 1. 3 billion that we decided is on a permanent trajectory down. There will be a price of alibaba, but heres the problem. Owning a chinese stock is not same as owning american stock. I find theyre opaque. I know you have a great relationship. I come back and say remember when amazon didnt tell us anything and we had to believe and have faith . Thats where i feel we are with alibaba. Have faith with alibaba is not working for me. And that, in fact, is what jack ma said many times. Trust me. He does seem to be a fairly straightforward and honest fellow, but thats the key part of it, jim. You have to know ill do the right thing. Obviously as we all know, customers come first for the company, employees second, shareholders. Hes thinking about the longterm. 103 years at least. He wants to be part of the last 100 years this century and the next one. Interesting year. You know what im doing now . What. Im raising price target 2,115. Tesla they go out 2020. Im taking out my price target to im going to 92 for 2215. Thats pretty modest on a discounted cash flow basis. Thats fairly modest. Yeah. 100 years. Ill discount that. When you think longterm, its not its not as good as you think. When we come back, cramers mad dash. Well count down to the opening bell. Im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Ahh. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim . For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. So youre a Small Business expert from at t . Yeah, give me a problem and ive got the solution. Well, we have 30 years of customer records. Our cloud can keep them safe and accessible anywhere. My drivers dont have time to fill out forms. Tablets. Keep it all digital. Were looking to double our deliveries. Our fleet apps will find the fastest route. Oh, and your boysenberry apple scones smell about done. Ahh, youre good. I like to bake. Add new Business Services with at t and get up to 500 in total savings. Some softness in the premarket. Were about 6 1 2 minutes before the bell. Jim, i know youre watching lilly today. We have to see, when you have a stock market looking down 300 points, you have the guys in pajamas trading furiously overnight and dropping like flies. Lets look at the stock that had the best news in the marketplace of s p 500. This is eli lilly. A drug they have its going to be on the market. Its a diabetes drug that cuts the heart rate risk dramatically for death. The stock was up big. If lily can keep the pace, you have to say maybe this market is not as ball as i think. Where does this fit on the list of stocks i know that interest you once prices get to saernt leve a certain level. I Like Pharmaceuticals in general what yellen is about is making it so the dollar is not as strong. These companies do well. Im looking to defend stocks. I want to buy them. I know the books are out of favor, watch wells, john stump told you im not nearly as hostage to the fed funds rate as you think. The bank group needs to hold if were going to get traction. Watch general mills, the reinvention of that company happening underneath us. Thats a good yield that can raise its dividend. That will be another stock that will be the tale of the tape. Well get the opening bell in about five minutes. Dont go anywhere. Awe believe active management can protect capital long term. Active management can tap global insights. Active management can take calculated risks. Active management can seek to outperform. Because active Investment Management isnt reactive. Its active. Thats the power of active management. Youre watching cnbcs squawk on the street live from the Financial Capital of the world. The opening bell in a couple minutes. Premarket has been soft for most of the morning. Global markets reassess Global Growth in light of what fed said yesterday. Before this morning all of the markets were looking at backtoback gains for the First Time Since july, june or may, depending on the index. Also interestingly, jim, all of them were up virtually the same percentage for the week. About 1. 5 for all three. We got buy backs continues. We heard from northrup earlier in the week. Today its texan with the buy back and the dividend hike. Texas instruments has retired a lot of stock in the last few years, 10 in the last 3 1 2 years. The dividend boost. These are indicative of texas. Iti upgraded by bank of america merrill. Thats Wireless Charging which all of us desperately want. These companies will go down today. You say i cant buy texas instruments. Theyre in there buying texas instruments. Lime looking at johnson johnson. Went up a couple points this week. I get that, nothing has happened to johnson and johnson. Something did happen to texas instruments. Something did happen in the cable industry. Something did happen when i look at companies that continue to buy