near record 10 million barrels a day. of the 50 or so oil related stocks that i follow only about ten, 20% are up over the past month. all down more than 20%. goodrich petroleum down more than 40%. one group that has been completely i think ignored, the offshore drillers. they're down worse, when you've got the -- hercules offshore. you can't even mention it now. >> all difficult. ensco, a very modern rig system. the number of rigs coming on is shocking. people don't understand it's about supply not necessarily demand. >> the ten-year treasury yield at 1.92% or so. again, down from our recent highs. but let's not forget jim. yes, we're down in the near term, but we're actually higher than we were by about 30 basis points for our lows so far in the year. >> excellent. >> also in our road map this morning, shares of gilead sciences are down. could be the big stock story of the day. the company warning of complications related to its hepatitis c drug. chuck schumer calling for an investigation into lumber liquidators and its products. and starbucks ending the ride of "race together" on customers' cups but howard schultz says the campaign will live on in other forms. meantime, we begin a new week for the markets. 22 points away from the nasdaq's all-time closing high of 5,048. the all-time intraday high was 5,132. the dow and the s&p coming on their first weekly gain in the last four weeks. as we noted, crude oil is pulling back again this morning, after last week's 2% gain and no matter how low oil goes jim, the producers here the producers in america, the producers in africa nobody seems to really want to cut production. saudi arabia getting close to 10 million barrels a day once again. they don't care. >> no but the 42 43 level has been sticky. during your show on friday that's when the spike came up it was an expiration day. the one thing i will point out is the really great guys i deal with, mr. mears, and rich kinder they have said there's real demand at 4243. that is when non-hedge funds come in, but actual buyers. keep track of that level. it has held twice now. >> there are two important things also to watch for in oil. and i've been the oil geek here. >> you're not a geek. this is so key to this market. >> yes, it is. i think so. i've been out there saying i think there's some -- it's not just lower gas prices. there are negative impacts. a journal story today about how business investment has been reduced. we've been trying to report on this for a few months. >> you've done a great job. you understand that when we see a cutback, and you've been in midland, you've been to these places, these are growth areas and we could see -- we saw some texas federal reserve numbers last week that showed there is a slowdown. we make it up with the dardens of the world, but let's keep track of it. this is where employment flourished. >> 23% of all new jobs created in the last five years have come from texas, so the thesis is this. as the numbers come down will it skew the data to give us a false read that the u.s. economy is slowing down? we'll wait and see anyway. two things with crude oil. number one, there's a law up in north dakota that if your rig is shut down for a year, you're done. so there's some concern now that as people have laid down rigs in the fall as we roll into the summer, you're going to have to see people drill a well. because otherwise they've wasted their capital spending. >> but take a look at ksu. they pre-announced. why? because of energy. typically, what happens is the rails have had a lot of different -- union pacific, this gives you a chance maybe to buy it. but they're in fracking. talking about how fracking sand has just decreased dramatically but, of course the wells themselves are using more frackingfrack ing ing sand because they're going after high gradient. this is a convoluted way of saying production is so not peaking. >> the two words you just mentioned, if you're interested in oil at all, high grading. high grading is basically going after your most productive and cheapest cost of production, so you shift from over here to your best wells, and that's what we've seen, so people are getting greedy. that one's at 35 bucks. let's just move it over here. >> right. the saudi arabia news is very negative. although no one really expected them to blink. it just comes out that nigeria is going to add no imports into this country. mexico's fighting for share. canada's fighting for share. gasoline not going to go up. >> there's a goldman sachs note saying, you know how they word these things, they said there's a downside risk to their $65 end of year price target for crude oil. >> it's not going to bounce back like that. mr. moncrief said it will push back. it was tremendous. i think that we're going to have a lower price for a longer time than people realize. >> okay. i would agree with you, by the way. based on what we've seen. >> and you've done a ton of work. >> nobody's cutting production. >> nobody. >> and the one country goldman sachs noted -- i think it was barclays or goldman this morning said you've got to watch libya. libya's been swinging by about 500,000 barrels a day. so it's kind of like which way is libya going to go? actually may have an impact on your market. what else is on your radar? >> i think it's time to not buy biotech. some interestingly negative news on cystic fibrosis. a gilead call. seems very minor to me, but it doesn't matter, it's going to drive the group down. we are seeing i think we in the biotech sector j.j. was on. been on a big run. why? because of takeover talk. if he's on "squawk," there's no takeover coming. it's peaking right here. a downgrade saying enough is enough. just be aware. if you haven't bought from this group yet, you've got time. going to come in a little. >> biotech. >> yeah. >> the numbers have been -- >> they've been staggering. >> we tried to do this on the show friday, and i didn't want to use the "b" word. i didn't want to use bubble. because i have no idea. but the statistics on the number of companies that are not only up, but up double digits this year, i said this -- and tell me if you agree. i don't know what's beginning to happen with most of these names, but i do know this. 90% of the drugs are not going to become blockbusters, period. the market's trading as if they are. >> a lot of these companies have really terrific formulations that are in phase one and phase two. so many things can go wrong in the interim. i mean that's a company i think has a shot at making things big. i think cautions as warranted there as the oil stocks down 20%, 30%, might get interesting eventually. i just don't want people to get hurt. >> okay so i just -- you probably saw me counting on my fingers and toes. i've got all 150 members of the ibb in a screen here on my fax set. the month of march, there was 140 stocks on my screen. how many biotechs are down this month? 12. >> out of how many? >> 150. >> that's -- that just shows you a little overheating. i don't want to call it the end of the world because then you suddenly find pharmacyclics. so this group is just -- frankly, what you have to do is watch the cross-currents. these are battlegrounds, and before, there were no battles. >> 12 stocks of those 150 are up more than 20% this month. they're up 62 45 34 and 37%, names i've never even heard of. but now i have. >> they're very big on needs. immuno therapy. i just noticed that health care is very expensive, but health care seems to have won in this world of health care versus oil. i know they don't sound like that they should maerkttter, but there's big money going into health care, so you'll see a lot of the health care stocks percolate up. >> but that's a totally different skill set, right? i know some really smart people in health care. they know they put gasoline in their car. that's about the extent of their oil knowledge and vice versa. >> but i think they come back to cardinal health they come back to amirisource bergen. and they've rewarded them. biotech into this. i'm just saying when i hear the numbers that you just gave me i feel less confident plowing in right now and would like a pullback. even regeneron. hey, give us a chance here. let it cool. there's nothing wrong with that. other places to go. >> noted. mankind, by the way, the worst performer over the past month. >> that is not working. their breathalyzer is not really working. i want to get the right use for that, but i have to tell you that mankind is not the place. >> let's move on to the company that we're drinking. starbucks announcing that its baristas will no longer be asked to write "race together." the coffee chain will continue other aspects of its campaign aimed at sparking discussions about race. just days ago on a fine program you may have heard about called "mad money," he defended his company's race together initiative. >> a.l. all we're doing is potentially do something catalytic to start a discussion. we're simply trying to raise the awareness, the level of empathy and compassion necessary to bridge the cultural divide that exists in this country today. if a customer or a barista wants to opt out of it it is not mandated. it's simply an act of kindness. >> so that ends now. whatever you think about the initiative it's taken a lot of criticism. no matter how good of a thing you try to do you're going to get slaughtered by it. >> mankind and diabetes it's a breathalyzer. just pointing that out. >> you can't know every stock by heart. >> you have to. >> you know about 3,900. i'll give you a break. >> so this i didn't know that the right on cop part was going to end here. i now think that the next stage for this if i were mr. schultz is what larry cramer is doing in "usa today." that was a very thoughtful section with conjunction with starbucks about knowledge of race which i think is so important. so knowledge of race in a multi-media way, and starbucks sponsoring that, is i think welcome. i think this was a difficult issue, the race together issue, is there's many reasons we all feel at home going to starbucks and i think it made some people feel less at home. >> this is a huge topic. >> it's hard. >> we're a business program. the stock has not seemed to be impacted. >> look -- >> he's trying to do a good thing. >> and we're leaving it at that. trying to do a good thing is a good thing. i'm not saying trying to do a good thing is a bad thing, because that's oxymoronic. but i also feel it's something you talk at home you talk at school. it's easier at home to talk about because you want to tell your kids how -- you know what's the right thing to do. than it is talking coffee. >> i think the one thing we've learned last year in particular is that in social media, everything's going to be a controversy in some form of fashion. >> i have villanova in one of my pools. oh cramer you better stick to stocks. >> just trying to have a little fun. >> right. but, you know, karen cramer always had a good view on this. she said, listen unless you're a rhinoceros shut up. >> i've got the greatest tweet ever to read to you. this was directed to me and "squawk on the street." who's the idiot producer that selected loud mouth sully cnbc to facilitate this morning. not interested in his diarrhea mouth. is there a biotech that can cure diarrhea mouth? >> i'm going to go with parago. that might be the way to deal with this. >> you're good. coming up the co-author of "becoming steve jobs" says it is the first book to "get it right. and as we head to break here we are very fracturely down. more when we return. say you're a finance guy. a farmer. a researcher. you used to depend on experience. the internet. your gut. today you can use ibm watson analytics. it can make sense of all kinds of data. uncover hidden correlations and new opportunities. and give recommendations with more confidence on who will buy. what to make. where to plant. which helps you make smarter decisions. there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm. and watch shares of lumber liquidators once again today because chuck schumer is calling for the consumer product safety commission to investigate the company and its flooring that is made in china. the democrat from new york wants the product tested and ordered it recalled if it is deemed to be unsafe. all of this, of course comes after a recent 60 minutes report suggesting that the flooring did not meet key environmental standards. jim? >> look the company has said that anybody who wants it tested, they'll test it. the company has been very forthcoming. do i think the company has survivability? i think that we talked about it endlessly on the network, that this is a senator calling for an investigation where there's been an investigation. we've learned that congress -- they listen to what the shorts say. they listen to what the media says and they call for investigations. it's kind of the process. i don't know whether they can get any more on limber liquidators, but it's a pretty well-plowed field. >> so it sounds like you're not too concerned about necessarily another knock-on derivative effect because the investigations are already occurring. >> exactly. i think what happens is if you own lumber liquidators, you're either completely unconscious and in a comatose state, or you recognize the risk. and anything between that is just ridiculous. >> all right, pepsico announcing it has appointed richard fisher to its board. just days ago, he retired as president and ceo of the dallas federal reserve after a decade on the job. the pepsi ceo says fisher brings a deep knowledge of financial matters and breadth of global experience and expertise in international trade and regulatory matters. no doubt, fisher's a smart guy. but does he know the soda business? >> i think that ingenuity -- trying to build a board of people who really have a more broad look overseas. and domestically in terms of finance. economics. i will tell you that richard fisher -- i have said on this air that he was often wrong, because he's anti-accommodation. i add him to the pepsico board for that. you add him for his ability to provoke discussion. he's probably one of the foremost discussion provokers. >> what is he going to bring to the board? how do we market frito lay? how do we move volumes and cases of pepsi and diet pepsi? >> there's sometimes more to it than you want a board member who's got a worldly view if you're an international company. i think when you look at boards these days you've got to have a multi-national perspective. would he be my choice? i don't know. he's a smart guy. >> bottom line do you think he will give pepsi shares a pop? >> no. if you buy it on that, wow. that would be a bad call. buy pepsico because it is done very well. there are people on boards who are academics, and they often don't bring anything to the bottom line but they're provoke provoking in a room. if you're a big building national, you want to have a little radar screen on that. >> fair enough. up next it is jim cramer's mad dash. >> you see how short i am. that's the key reason why we have the segment. how short i am. >> only on mondays. this monday, as a matter of fact. we're going to count you down to the opening bell. take a look at the futures as we head to a break. the s&p and dow may open a couple points up. the nasdaq may open a couple of points down. interesting individual stock stories. more "squawk on the street" from the nyse right after this. when the moment's spontaneous, why pause to take a pill? 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(vo) rush hour around here starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the nose. but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. all right, it's time now for "the mad dash". let's get to a couple stocks that need to be on your radar. cyberark. >> a great growth stock group that has been in a funk. cyber security stocks. bank of america says this is the time to buy. i have to tell you, this group is red-hot. remember palo alto networks and fire eye, they will also go up on this call. >> stock number two this morning. >> okay here's one that's been sitting there, yahoo. merrill likes it. this is the first time i've heard this in a long time on an earnings basis, they are saying tumblr is going to be a material growth engine for yahoo. >> so it's not just japan and alibaba for once. >> this is so important that i want to show you how i want to get the attention on this yahoo call. this is me really. >> it's okay. >> is it? >> i drank a lot of milk. >> it's an orange crate cart. >> what's our third stock? >> i mentioned vertex. going to be down the most because of some issues with a cystic fibrosis drug. don't panic. this is the pullback in biotech. expect it. live with it. we'll come out of it. >> just got an e-mail based on our conversation earlier, 70% of the ibb is up over 50 weeks. >> you've got to be kidding me! >> stock four. i'm trying. >> what can i say? >> what can i do? give me the box. >> carnival downgraded by deutsche bank. i don't know if that's the right call. >> is it a dollar-based call? >> so smart. so smart. >> or just a lucky guess. >> they are building ships now that have so many people out of royal caribbean. i don't know i don't know. >> but other ships are built in the eurozone though. >> you are building a ship that's being built in euros, too. they're all built in italy or german shipyards for the most part. what's on "mad money" tonight? >> we have 3m. >> that's rare. >> a rare interview. >> very rare. and such a great guy. what a great multi-national. core portfolio holding. we're going to look forward to that on "mad money." watching carnival. jim says a very very important call on yahoo that fundamentally has to do with earnings. the opening bell now just about three minutes away. a little more than that. we're going to bring it to you. all the news you need to know. we're back right after this. the lightest or nothing. the smartest or nothing. the quietest or nothing. the sleekest... ...sexiest ...baddest ...safest, ...tightest, ...quickest, ...harshest... ...or nothing. at mercedes-benz we do things one way or we don't do them at all. the 2015 c-class. see your authorized mercedes-benz dealer for exceptional offers through mercedes-benz financial services. it's more than the cloud. it's security - and flexibility. it's where great ideas and vital data are stored. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions from a trusted it partner. including cloud and hosting services - all backed by an industry leading broadband network and people committed to helping you grow your business. you get a company that's more than just the sum of it's parts. centurylink. your link to what's next. you are watching cnbc's "squawk on the street" live. the opening bell set to ring here in just seconds. we are expecting likely a mixed open. the dow, s&p, and nasdaq futures not indicating a huge move but there are a lot of really interesting individual stories today. >> yes. and one of the things you come in on monday and you try to look for anomalies. here's one. raymond james goes by genworth. they have policies that have been really difficult to fund. a little $7 stock will get people going. long-term care is so hard. >> i should correct a quote that i said. the ibb is up 70% in the past year. wow. you're watching the opening bell. the s&p 500 at the cnbc realtime exchange. and here down in town at the big board, amn health care staffer, celebrating its 30th anniversary. over at the nasdaq the oklahoma city national memorial and museum in recognition of the upcoming 20th anniversary of the oklahoma city bombing. hard to believe that it was 20 years ago. >> another one where we all remember where we were. >> yeah. just a terrible day in america. there you go. let's get back now to the markets. we are seeing the bells ring. we're starting to see some stocks trade. we've got a lot of individual names on our radar right now. the dow opening up 13 points. >> it's very interesting, because apache was downgraded today. apache happens to be one. the ceo was on -- the new ceo. i'm kind of attracted to that just because i've always felt that that company was very undervalued. that stock going up today. it's very interesting to see these oils trying to maintain a bid at a time when i think oil is really not going to be higher. >> but one thing to watch also with oil is debt. there is record oil and gas debt issuance. but interesting article, i think it was in the ft this morning also noting that hey, this is a cheap way to shore up your balance sheet if you want to be more aggressive, taking advantage of opportunities down the road because some of your friends and neighbors might not be doing as well. >> you mentioned earlier, goodrich. they have refinanced using the equity market. when you see that that makes them safe to own. and i think that's important. i don't think everything is a big, black hole. the hyg has not really been hit. i think the whole notion that the oil patch is going to take us apart has not worked versus the darden trade. we're going to see sonic reports in. sonic is a classic one of these situations that does well because you've got a few extra bucks in your pocket. >> interesting call from ubs on staples. >> i like that call. i like that call. because the combination stock is down 11% for the year. they've got the office depot -- you know, these amalgums have worked. the ones that have worked the best have been in semiconductors. if you take a look avago raised the price target 131 to 160. i like the stocks in the semiconductor group like cyprus where you have connectivity. the connectivity internet of things is spurring a lot of really good semiconductor stocks, whether it be corvo, avago, cypress. it is certainly not a pc market. pc do not look at the companies that go -- i said don't worry about c-gate. i'm worried about c-gate. i don't care. the stocks that are down big tend not to recover in a given year. >> corvo was my stock of the month last month. >> if you go to the website of corvo -- >> not cuervo corvo. >> when you look at corvo, what you see is an actual website that says listen we are now able to do better against apple and samsung. if i were apple and samsung, say wait a second could you not put that at least on the website? but that is about no longer being pitted against each other to be able to get business. i like that. sky works -- >> jim, look how good you are. that was the next company i was going to ask you about. >> put together a remarkable company and stocks not done going higher even though it's up 40% for the year. >> piper jeffrey downgrading. >> there's competition in storage. wherever there's competition, you're going to be able to find someone who's able to make a call. emc chart was breaking down. apple was down critically on friday. a lot of people were worried, they needed to stop focusing on the tick-to-tick apple. i do want to read the new steve jobs biography. >> what's interesting is that we're finally starting to see some of these smaller mid cap technology names really grab not only market share but finally some of the headlines for the nimble storages against dmc. >> mxpi. free scale. these companies, they are simply not going to let anyone else in their segment, which is why the ceo of intel, when they did that preannouncement, that was beginning of what i regard to be you can no longer make a lot of money in companies that are based on the pc. because the world is going mobile. when you have a salesforce.com, when he comes on the show and says everyone can control their business through their hand held, that's a game-changer and that's why you're seeing those stocks that put chips in there. when you look at cyrus logic, you combine your cell phone with a device that's small and you find magnificent sound, who needs a pc? >> okay these are interesting calls. but there is one call out there this morning which to me may be the most gutsy call of the day. >> maybe i can find it. a gutsy call. >> you know what it is it's raymond james going a strong buy on genworth. down 59% over a year. >> maybe they reserved enough in the long-term. health care ahs was lifted. these things were written in the '90s before we had a better idea about the longevity. the longevity, whether it be because of biotech, whether it be better medical system is hurting the companies that wrote long-term care policies. when they didn't expect the cost of long-term care to go as high. you are able to get 24-hour help round-the-clock help if you have one of these policies trying to make it so it's only 12-hour help. that is an ultimate battleground. >> and you're not going from a neutral to a bye. like we don't like it. you're beginning to a strong buy. laying it out there on the table. >> i don't know if people realize all the oil names that have been routed out. it's not an oil name. genworth is the worst s&p 500 stock over the past 12 months. >> the reserves keep going up and up and up. why? because this is basically one of the worst mistakes that an insurance company could ever make. because if you take a look at the travelers, they didn't make that mistake. travelers, 52-week high last week. allstate is holding in. those are all about not as much price competition as we thought. >> all right, one quick one before we get to bob here. big call on pfizers. talking about manage care. >> they were talking about a new drug -- whenever i see these new drugs, an oncology franchise, that is post-menopausal, advanced breast cancer. i don't want to give people false hopes. but pfizer they're talking about a $13 billion franchise. that is huge. >> so many names on the move this morning here. let's give jim's brain a break here. >> no, i'm loving it! going back to pepsico. look at dupont. dupont said listen we're not putting health -- i find to have someone who is brilliant and provocative about the world in a changing world where it's -- greece, we haven't even mentioned greece. where it's mexico versus canada. >> where is your producer -- where is the idiot producer that put me on tv this morning. sally shin. what did i say we should talk about this morning? greece. >> producer? >> they said who's the idiot producer that put me on. >> very sweet girl. >> she's fantastic. >> hate to call her idiot. you think she doesn't take that personally? >> no, for putting me on. >> oh okay. >> we talk about greece. nbg and grek, the national bank of greece. >> this is the week. >> they're running out of money. >> april 7th is when i think they're out of money. and it's going to be back on the radar screen as sick of it as we are. the rest of europe is made up. >> there was a cartoon it was angela merkel as a cyclops. and greece with a slingshot. and that's where they are right now. >> they're talking about reparations from world war ii. >> there was a german company that last week went sbainto a tourism office and paid reparations. voluntarily. >> bob pisani on the floor. >> angela merkel is meeting with the greek foreign minister. we'll see if anything comes out of that. we see oil down. that's very interesting. the euro is strong. so not surprisingly europe and germany are a little bit on the weak side. biotechs weak, no surprise there. techs an early leader but i want to show you how remarkable the global market situation is. i have to keep reminding people that we are essentially at multi-year historic highs, right across the globe here. the u.s. is just near an historic high. germany is down. let's call it 2% off the historic high. japan closed at a 15-year high. and china, i have been watching a remarkable run in china. i'm talking mainland china now. i want to show you the shanghai stock market which closed up another 2% today. this is now nine straight days on the upside. it's got to be up 9% in the last six or seven days. this is just year to date on the shanghai exchange. i get asked a lot of questions about how to invest in china, particularly the mainland china shares. fortunately, there's many ways to do it now. a lot depends on what you're looking for. if you look at china a shares the big one is the ahsr. that's 300 of the largest stocks listed, that's up almost 9% this year. but they have a companion. this is deutsche. has a companion small cap one that consists of 500 small cap stock companies, that's up 31%. now, why is that happening here? that's buzz chinese small cap stocks are benefiting from all these statements by chinese government officials about stimulus policies in china. that tends to favor small cap stock stocks. just put up the ahsr that's the big one. and you can see -- you can see the bottom line is it's been moving up straight, outperformance compared to the big cap ever since the chinese officials have been making statements about the stimulus. let's move on talk about the u.s. here in the united states. you know russell closed at an historic high on friday. the s&p 500 we're just there. 2108, 2109. the historic high is 2117. we're five points away from a closing historic high there. the dow, we're about 120 points away. 18,288 that was on march 2nd so we're 100 points away from a new high on the dow. this is closing high that i'm talking about. the big one -- and i think we could reach it this week the nasdaq. that was march 2000 we hit the historic high. it was 5,048. so we are 26 points away even though the nasdaq is down we're 26 points away from a historic high. if you look at what's been moving this week, we're close to the end of the month, strong dollar. weak oil has really crushed the commodity group. also the crummy economic numbers has put a lot of pressure on some of the high beta names. so cyber security and some of the tech names. internet names aren't really advancing at all this month. one high beta group you guys were talking about is the biotech group. and we're seeing ibb, which is a market cap weighted index that they're playing that's down today because of vertex. a great run. 6.7% overall on the month. they're very heavily weighted. that's a market cap weighted etf. i get asked that all the time. guys, back to you. >> all right, bob, thank you very much. now let's talk to rick santelli at the cme group. what else might be on your radar and focus today, sir? >> well i think we have to continue to focus on what's going on in europe. foreign exchange markets seem to be somewhat in control. and of course, it seems to be a continued weak dollar and equities seem to follow, at least the european equities for sure. if we look at a two-day of tens, we're drifting down about ready to test 190. open the chart up to december 1st. haven't seen a test to this level since the first few days of february, at least on a closing basis. if we look at what's going on in boons, a lot of sideways action on the two-day champltrt. notice the low yield. 16 basis points and change. so sideways but sideways at historic low closing yields. now, let's look at the foreign exchange side as i referenced earlier. a month-to-date chart. we've had about six sessions since the low close in the euros, as you see on the middle of that chart. even though it most likely according to traders is just getting even with the market for a trade that was long in the tooth, many still believe the next big trade is going to be a sale. monitor that 110 level. that's what they think is good resistance. if we want to look at the dax, which i also referenced today, one of the rare down sessions it has is it continues to forge ahead in a highway lane of course that's bedded with quantitative easing u.s. style. year to date on the hyg, could have picked the jnk. they're both etfs that expressed valuations for high yield. as you can see, it is not going straight up. it certainly has base from its down trend that was established early in the year. brooip brian, back to you. now let's take a closer look at oil prices. bertha coombs at the nymex, where saudi arabia is in focus. >> yeah saudi arabia if anyone's expecting for saudi minister to blink, he is not ready to do that. to a certain extent, he's doubling down. sort of saying look the market is going to take care of the prices here. we are not cutting back. in fact, saudi arabia is almost near report levels of production near 10 million barrels a day. take that u.s. producers. and we have seen here in the u.s., even as the rig count has come down dramatically, production here as well continues to move higher as a lot of those shale rigs are very, very efficient. nonetheless, with the dollar pulling back today, the euro now above 109, we do see a little bit of a breather and despite the fact that energy prices started off in the red overnight, they've now moved modestly positive. we'll see if that continues as far as metals. the dollar giving a little bit of a boost, particularly to the industrial metals. copper getting a little bit of strength and also a bit for palladium as well. >> all right bertha thank you very much. coming up one of private equities' power players david ruben ruben rubenstein in a live interview. also, rick tetzeli, co-author of "becoming steve jobs." see what he has to say about apple's co-founder. we're going to be right back. it was only a matter of time. a new report revealing interest in the apple watch does appear to be growing. while the report found the consumers are hesitant to buy the first generation of the product, it says the apple watch will likely create a "positive awareness of wearables." the report also found that traditional watches are here to stay as well, as most consumers see wearables as a complimentary product rather than a substitute. >> perfect. >> programming note coming up on "squawk alley," saying the first book to "get it right." >> i think it's important to note that this is a health delivery system, the watch, that also tells time and it's perfectly legitimate to believe that you have two arms, you'll wear both. right now, it sounds like what are you doing with both? if i can have something that is able to tell me some vitals about myself i am not going to be so concerned that i also have another watch. eventually maybe just decide that you only need one watch. but i need this watch, and i need it badly. >> i'll tell you what if all these new wearable products start containing a heart rate monitor, i would love to go long any of the hospital stocks. i'll tell you why. we all go through periods of stress in our life. we have spikes, we have this and that. how many folks are going to start freaking out if their heart rate goes up. >> the holy grail is blood pressure. they don't have it down yet. they'll get there. they don't have it yet. but when they get there, it will go directly to your cardiologist and it will save lives and that is why this device is beginning to be a win. >> it's going to be a win. >> it's going to be a big win. >> up next it is "stop trading" with jim. and later -- >> itunes was barely in existence, and any streaming that was done on the internet was probably done illegally. so over the course of our show this whole new pathway to content delivery evolved. >> well there you go. >> how advertising and media really have changed over the course of "mad men." the series about ready to enter its final season. "squawk on the street" will be right back. o. i am a fully automated investment advisory service. i can help you choose investments. monitor them. and rebalance your portfolio. i can do a lot of what humans can. except have a real conversation. if you'd like that, you can always speak to someone at schwab. they aren't algorithms. try not to hold it against them. say hello at intelligent.schwab.com there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade we looked for the best price and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. good morning. 6:54 a.m. out in portland, oregon. time now for "stop trading." >> i've got to tell you, nice biotech selloff. nice big cap rally. wanted to keep an eye on sherwin williams. they're saying listen, the raw cost benefits of lower oil are kind of in the stock. this is the kind of call you've got to be very careful of because if you look at the charts, again, i think a lot of analysts look at charts. maybe not this fellow. but sherwin williams looks like it was rolling over. so does whirlpool. the companies that build -- that go into homes are not doing well right now in terms of their stocks. but i still think they're having real good spripgngs. i look at owens corning, if it comes in that's what you should buy. >> "mad money" tonight, what do you got? >> 3m is a company i used to idolized. and inge thulin doesn't do any tv. such a smart man. so much stuff. i cannot wait to sit down with him. cannot wait. >> a stock that has been hot over 12 months. cooled off just a bit. d . >> they should go over that. it's a false worry for them. >> what is 3m? they're in everything. >> a lot of health care. a lot of technology. they do a lot of safety. they also have a lot of office supplies. they're in everything. and they're in where they can be number one. and that's what we're going to talk about. number one in so many different things. >> a post-it note as a reminder to watch the show tonight. coming up break news on existing home sales in minutes. plus, a live interview with david rubenstein. keep it here on cnbc. you can find a new frontier. there's nothing stopping you and a lot helping you. technology that's with you always. this is our promise. it's never been better to wander because wherever you go, you'll find us doing everything we can, so you can. it's more than a network. it's how you stay connected. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner you get an industry leading broadband network and cloud and hosting services. centurylink. your link to what's next. ♪ at mfs, we believe in the power of active management. every day, our teams collaborate around the world to actively uncover, discuss and debate investment opportunities. which leads to better decisions for our clients. it's a uniquely collaborative approach you won't find anywhere else. put our global active management expertise to work for you. mfs. there is no expertise without collaboration. can it make a dentist appointment when my teeth are ready? ♪ ♪ can it tell the doctor how long you have to wear this thing? ♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver? good morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sarah eisen with simon hobbs live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. carl and david are off today. just us. let's take a look at the markets. we are seeing the first back-to-back gains for the dow and the s&p. the nasdaq would have been going for a sixth day in a row, but it actually is lower right now. down about a quarter of a percent. >> that's where our road map starts kicking off another week in the green. the dollar lower. oil prices weakening. >> david rubenstein on the fed, oil prices and the strong dollar. >> what is a monday without news on apple. a new call on the watch. new price targets. and a new steve jobs biography. >> but first, we go to diana with some breaking news on existing homes. >> existing home sales in february up 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.88 million units. that's right along with expectations. a little lower, expecting 1.7%. sales up 4.7% year over year but we have to remember last february was not a strong year. even the realtors saying they would characterize this as under five million, and still "underperforming." median home price at 2,260 dollars. they're saying we're seeing a reacceleration in pricing. why? here's your headline folks. inventory. 1.89 million homes for sale. up slightly 1. 6% month to month. we should see an increase of about 6% more homes for sale on the market. we're seeing barely 1.5%. so again, we only have a 4.6-month supply of homes for sale. very unhealthy. pushing prices higher and keeping folks from being able to find what they need therefore not listing what they need. realtors are now saying that it's all about inventory. they're pushing the builders to build more. they're not so concerned about that the underwater problem because they say if you can't sell your home you can't buy a home it's all a wash if you're buying and selling. so again, it is a big inventory problem. they're hoping to see it bounce back. and they're not blaming the weather for any of february's weakness. they say it could be a slight thing in the northeast, but we're going to get that back in march and april. so inventory, not weather. >> thank you, diana with the breaking news on housing. in the meantime stocks relatively mixed. we've lost about 20 points on the dow in the last few minutes after some rare back-to-back gains for the s&p and the dow. last week the nasdaq trying for a six-day winning streak. crude is also in the green after wiping out earlier lotszs searlier losses after saudi's minister said the saudis will not bear the brunt. joining us now, jp morgan's chief u.s. economist. david, let's talk about the markets first of all. it feels like the tenner has changed. last week we got 2.7% gain on the s&p 500. where do we go from here, do you think? >> the s&p has had a rough start to the year primarily on the back of the u.s. dollar's strength. it's weighed on earnings. i think in every show that's what you're talking about with your ceos and guests. we've gone from 122 in the euro to start the year down to 105 last week. we got a little reprieve. janet came out telling us she's probably going to go earlier than people thought, but she's also going go slower than people thought. i think that's taken some of the pressure off the dollar. it's been a heck of a run and something we've been pushing on pretty hard here at jeffries for a while. but if the dollar can stabilize, i think the s&p can do a bit better and it's going to sort of really come down to the dollar for almost all asset classes. it's oil, it's the dax, it's the nikkei, it's emerging markets. a stable dollar will actually generate some countertrend moves, at least for a little while. >> okay, you lay out the groundwork. is your advice for people to double down here? >> look i think the opportunity here is really not in the u.s. still. i think the opportunity is still in europe. i think the bigger picture trend is for a weaker euro excessive monetary policy easing coming out of europe and to some extent, also in japan. it doesn't mean we can't have some periodic perky periods. i guess i did say ppp there. but it's not going to be the story of the year for us. >> mike where are you now on the fed and the dollar? >> right, so obviously last week was a dovish message. we still have a june call that we're tenuously holding on to but we need strong data for that to play out. >> but if that's true, isn't the market getting ahead of itself? if you still believe they're going to hike in june? and not really being that dovish, are they? or is it about the rate rises further down the line? >> i think what we got last week is more suggestive of something like a september rate hike and i think the market has probably pushed back expectations a little bit. so we're definitely on our heels. i think we need to see some good jobs numbers for a june hike to come through. but we definitely see them hiking sometime later this year. not sure if it's june or september. they lowered their growth forecast by about a quarter percentage point per year. we think a lot of that looks like it's a dollar effect and about what we would have done as well. we're kind of neutral on the dollar here. >> do you think that the fed successfully talked down the dollar? it is weakening off of a pretty weak week last week or is this an adjustment because obviously the fed is worried about it and then it's going to go back up? >> i think it is a bit of a fed story recently. we're also pretty optimistic on places like europe where we think the data is looking better, in part because of what they referred to as excessive. that's helping the european economy. we think that also helps to stabilize the currency here. >> what about the breakout we've had on the russell 2000? from your take that perhaps the opportunities are elsewhere, i assume you're thinking that's kind of a defensive move rather than as some people would say a confirmation of the breadth of the rally? >> it could be, or it could be that people are getting nervous about the large multi-nationals that have much more currency exposure. some of these big companies, 40%, 50% of what they bring home comes from something overseas and we've just seen the dollar index move you know move in a way it hasn't in many decades. in fact, back to the '80s in some cases. i hate to sort of sound like a broken clock. i really think we're all trading the dollar here. we're going to watch the ecb, the bank of japan, and the fed, but really it's beginning to depend on whether the dollar can stabilize as to whether the u.s. equity market feels good for a little while. if we go back down to 103, 104 in parity, it's going to be a little more sloppy trading in tus. >> stan fisher, do you expect him to emphasize this message, that it's not so much about when, but more about the pace of tightening and it's not going to be aggressive? >> yes another theme is uncertainty. they're uncertain about when they're going to lift off, how fast they're going to go and don't expect the fed to kind of hold our hands and tell us each step of the way what's going to happen six months down the line because they don't know. >> can i ask you about oil. i was alarmed to read over the weekend that the etfs now control about a third of the active contracts in oil, partly because of this big rush in from retail investors who may not realize that it means that there are higher oil prices further down the line. and they may have put themselves into a loss-making situation. what is the view on oil, and can you call oil etfs at this stage? >> i think it's really difficult to call oil etfs right now. i think there are reasons we could see a further decline in energy prices which would be a good thing for the economy, that has been a big support for the consumer in the last few quarters. but i think the situation is really fluid and i don't have a very strong view on the outlook ahead for oil. >> and perhaps it was unfair to ask you, but thank you. michael feroli from jp morgan. david as well. starbucks making a change to its race together campaign. howard schultz telling employees that as previously planned, as of yesterday, they're no longer being encouraged or required to write "race together" on cups. but schultz says the company's effort to promote discussions of racial issues is "far from over." the campaign last week set off a wave of criticism on social media and everywhere. here's howard schultz responding last week to our own jim cramer. >> there's no part of this on any level that's about marketing or pr or trying to get more business. i don't think it's going to hurt business. we certainly have not seen that in the last 24 hours. this is going to have a long tail to it. i think people trust the brand. i have faith that they won't put any customer in the situation where they're being handed something they don't want to carry. >> it was a weird annual meeting, because they had a two for one stock split, and yet everyone was talking about this race campaign. >> i think you've got to admire howard schultz for still -- i mean can you imagine a major company, one of the big consumer package companies actually getting that through the marketing department? what alarmed me in the statement, to the staff, i know this hasn't been easy for any of you. so my concern would be that the backlash at the main street level was quite harsh. >> he also emphasized it's not a pr exercise. we've got another update in consumer news this morning. announcing david fisher has been elected to the pepsico board of directors. interesting in the face of all of this global macro uncertainty that they would bring on a former fed president. >> interesting if he doubles down on the new york fed and his attempts to neutralize the power to a greater extent. that is gaining traction. >> all my worlds colliding there. coming up, david rubenstein on the u.s. economy, when the fed will raise rates. is he investing in the energy sector, and how much. we'll talk to him about plenty as we look at the dow, up 54 points. "squawk on the street" will be right back. i have a wandering eye. i mean, come on. national gives me the control to choose any car in the aisle i want. i could choose you... or i could choose her if i like her more. and i do. oh, the silent treatment. real mature. so you wanna get out of here? go national. go like a pro. president obama set to deliver the keynote address at the select usa investment summit this afternoon. it's part of a first ever government-wise initiative to promote foreign investment into the united states and new data suggests there's some work to be done here on attracting foreign money. government data released last week found that foreign direct investment in the u.s. fell nearly 60% last year. joining us exclusively from the select usa summit david rubenstein, co-founder and co-ceo of the carlyle group. it's good to see you again, david. >> my pleasure to be here. >> do we have a problem in the united states attracting foreign investment? it's surprising given the fact that the u.s. is outperforming when it comes to the global economy right now. >> i wouldn't say it's a problem, but i think secretary of commerce has been a really good job of trying to make sure people realize that it's important that we encourage people to invest here. i think as a result of her efforts, more money is coming into the united states and a result of many other things. because the dollar is very strong now, it may discourage some companies from wanting to invest here and i think the point of this conference is to say that despite the strong dollar, there are many other good advantages to invest in the united states. >> i'm so glad you brought up the dollar. it's a subject of much debate here on "squawk on the street," and on a lot of our programs here on cnbc. do you agree with the treasury secretary that it's in our best interest to have a strong dollar? is it really a badge of honor, or is it net negative for our economy? >> every treasury secretary has to say, and they do want a strong dollar. if they've said anything else, there would be a difficult situation. the dollar is stronger now than maybe some people would really prefer. i think the dollar has gone ahead of where some people probably thought it would be. it's risen 27% against the euro since last year. 15% this year. i think it's a bit of a problem for some u.s. companies that want to export because it's made exports more difficult. and it's maybe discouraged some people from wanting to invest in the united states. but overall, i think the dollar being strong is a good thing for the united states because people want strong currencies. and they want to know when they invest in a country if currency is going to remain strong. the dollar may get stronger. so some people may get a stronger dollar as a result of that and a benefit to them. >> what about you at carlisle? where are you investing? how does the u.s. look relative to places like europe? i know you've been bullish on japan in the past where the stimulus there is flowing and their equity markets at least have outperformed. >> well carlyle invests all over the world, so we don't invest only in the united states. probably about half of our investments are in the united states, but about half therefore around the rest of the world in more than 40 different countries. everyone has its pluses and minuses. so we are still aggressively investing in the emerging markets, in china, and in latin america, among other places sub saharan africa. we do think the japanese economy will strengthen. not that much competition in japan to us. therefore we find that appealing as well. generally, we think the dollar is not going to be a problem to invest around the world for us. we have a lot of funds that are in different currencies. and we are not really that worried about the strong dollar. >> well that is an interesting statement, coming from you. what about the overall market volatility that we've seen across assets. does it feel normal to you in a world where we have to position for higher interest rates, or is there something more worrisome going on with all these swings? >> i think people want to see what the federal reserve is really going to do. the federal reserve has said for quite some time they're assessing the situation. they're going to be patient. now they're saying they're not using the word patient anymore. but still, i think people would like to actually know what the fed is going to do and when they do it i think there will be less volatility. there's just some uncertainty in the market. so whatever the fed decides to do with respect to increasing interest rates. when it happens, i think that will reduce volatility. >> you do. and what about the valuations we're seeing? all of the major indices are trading right around record high. does it seem frothy to you, or fair? >> there's no doubt that prices are high by normal standards, and isn't that attractive for investors to find high prices. we do think they will probably recede a bit. and when the interest rates do go up in the united states probably will put some pressure -- take some pressure off of the high valuations. so i think valuations will come down a bit, but there's no doubt they've been frothy a bit in the united states. now, they're discounted a bit in europe. we think the prices there are about 25% below comparable assets in the united states. and prices in some of the emerging markets are pretty attractive right now, too. >> so those equity markets have more room to run up? >> well i think that the u.s. market has run up a fair bit. i don't know that it can keep doing what it's doing. i do think, therefore other markets are attractive. but in the end, the united states has many other strengths though. it's a god place tood place to invest. just have to be very careful what price you pay. >> i know you talked a lot about the opportunities in energy specifically, and carlyle just closed a $2.5 billion international fund. how much have you been investing? how aggressive have you been with these low valuations in energy and where are you investing here? >> well we have about $9 billion total of dry powder available capital to invest in energy around the world. the fund you're referring to was an international only fund that we just closed and that is to invest outside the united states. and we do think that because oil prices are so low now, relatively speaking 50% below the peek the peak, we do think oil prices will come back and gas prices will go up as well. so generally we think if you can buy now at relatively low prices and hold on for a few years, you're going to do quite well. so we're very bullish on the energy sector. we'd say probably there is no other sector in the world that we're as bullish on as we are in energy. >> and where are you in terms of the investments in energy using that $9 billion and buying companies or distressed assets or distressed debt? where are you in that process? >> well, we're buying a combination of things. we have a large presence in the united states through ngp, doing investments in energy oil, and gas in the united states production. we also have a large investment in europe and around the world in other types of energy areas. storage, transmission, energy investment and production. so it's many different types of energy investments that we do. not just one type of energy investment. >> got it. do want to ask you about sort of the news of the day. ted cruz the senator from texas, announcing on twitter that he's going to be running for president. i know you don't get affiliated with either party or weigh in but is this country in need of that much of a shake-up? >> you know, i think anybody that wants to run for president should be free to do so. i'm not getting involved in it. and i'll just watch it like everybody else and pay attention to my investments more than anything else. >> what do you think is the most important issue that businesses are looking for in this campaign cycle? >> i think what businesses want is the ability of the congress and the executive branch to work together. i think one of the issues that members of the business community would like to see is trade legislation passed by the congress in this session. i think that would do a great deal for the u.s. economy. particularly the pacific related trade agreement. if that could get done i think that would do a great deal for the u.s. export market and also be very good for the countries that sign on to it. so we're very focused on trade legislation. that's probably the highest priority right now. >> all right, got it. always valuable to hear from you, david. thank you for joining us from the conference. david rubenstein, the ceo of carlyle. coming up tomorrow, we'll be joined by commerce secretary penny pritzker on these issues. she's a big part of the event with president obama signing trade deals, attracting u.s. investment, and how we're going to stay competitive. let's take you live to virginia, where senator ted cruz after announcing that he will run in 2016 is now taking the stage. let's take a listen. >> the daughter of irish and italian catholic family working class. her uncle ran numbers in wilmington. she grew up with dozens of cousins because her mom was the second youngest of 17 kids. she had a difficult father. a man who drank far too much. and frankly, didn't think that women should be educated. and yet this young girl pretty and shy, was driven. was bright. was inquisitive. and she became the first person in her family ever to go to college. in 1956 my mom, eleanor, graduated from rice university with a degree in math. and became a pioneering computer programmer in the 1950s and 1960s. [ applause ] >> let's bring in our chief washington correspondent john harwood. so the first to declare, john. >> simon, ted cruz is jumping out ahead, casting himself as a full spectrum conservative. by announcing at liberty university, he's saying to evangelical christians who are a key part of the republican base that he is their champion. many republicans, simon, are backing away from social issues because of changing views on same-sex marriage and that sort of thing. he's also casting himself as the most aggressive and decisive. he's jumping in earlier. everybody else is testing the waters exploring, that sort of legal status because they're not willing to spend money on campaigns at this point. jeb bush is raising tons of money. but ted cruz is trying to stick out that right flank and we'll see how many people chase him there, simon, and how many choose to distance themselves from cruz to make a point to the rest of the party that they're more electable. >> you know, john a lot of people have made much of the fact that obviously the bushes are able to raise a lot of money. the clintons are able to raise a lot of money. is the field still open or did the finances with the magnitude we expect trump all, do you think? >> i think it's wide open simon. finances are important. they don't govern everything. and if you have a small number of very wealthy donors even if you don't have broad financial support, the super pack system can let you stay in the game and make an impact beyond what in conventional terms your support would be. we saw that are wick santorum for example, in 2012. he had a couple of rich donors who managed to sustain him in the race a lot longer than expected. but look, we've got a ton of candidates. you've got jeb bush scott walker marco rubio as the sort of establishment first tier but you've got a whole range of other people. chris christie in new jersey still intends to get in the race. rick perry, former governor of texas. you've got ted cruz. you've got all sorts of people who are going to make an impact here. and we just don't know how this field's going to shake out over the next six months. but we do expect an accelerating beginning of the formal declarations. rand paul is expected to go in about two week. >> going to be a fascinating race. john, thank you. ted cruz the first to declare for 2016. coming up on the show, why adoption of the apple watch must be more gradual than expected and what it means for the watch industry. callens proprietary apple watch survey next on cnbc. a new survey finds that although consumers are growing more interested in apple's smart watch, that they'd also be interested in owning more than one watch. take a listen to what the ceo of tag hoyer told us about the apple watch. >> i think the apple watch is perfectly designed and it looks like an apple watch. that is quite an achievement. you design a watch that looks like an apple watch. it was not easy. imagine they would have done a round watch, it would not have looked like an apple watch. so all in all, i think it's a brilliant design for apple. even if for my own taste i prefer a little bit more sexy. but everybody's different. >> he did suggest it could hit the bottom end. oliver is one of the analysts behind the survey. the main takeaway seems to be by fossil. it's got 10% upside here. >> yes. we are excited, simon, about fossil. what i would say -- i agree, consumers care about sexiness. and i think traditional watches really will play a role in the future of smart watches. we think smart watches will be a $10 billion market over time. but traditional watches wearables, and the fashion component is really important. so i think traditional watches can play alongside an apple watch as well. >> i mean, i think to many people it's blindingly obvious that they're two very different functions. you might have an apple watch to control the music, the lighting the internet of everything around your home. that's very different to a traditional watch, which might be a family heirloom. two very different things. >> yeah but i think traditional and luxury is about innovation. so we will see traditional makers playing in this market. fossil has michael coors as well as tory burch and kate spade and they're all interested in participating. i think the wearables theme will evolve. consumers are worried about battery life they're worried about pricing. as we look to version 2.0 and ahead, those will be solutions that will be solved. so the market should get interesting. >> oliver, do we have to talk about different geographic markets when it comes to demand for the apple watch? as i understand there's much more vibrant luxury demand for these kind of products over in china. japan has a great luxury market. is that where they're going to be when it comes to buyers of this product? >> the long-term story for luxury goods is emerging markets exposure. i think that will continue to be true. if you think about apple, tim murk mercury is my partner here. the brand transitions to a real experiencial kind of brand. so i think it's a balance of both. when we come back what will push the euro to hit parity with the dollar? it's a story having a huge effect on american business, on stocks, on other assets. we'll talk to a technical analyst on currencies, next. so why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? with cialis for daily use, you don't have to plan around either. it's the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision or any symptoms of an allergic reaction stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. why pause the moment? ask your doctor about cialis for daily use. for a free 30-tablet trial go to cialis.com now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. good morning, everyone. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. isis posting a hit list with names, addresses and photos of 100 u.s. service members. the pentagon calling it mostly a scare tactic but is encouraging anyone on that list to exercise caution. as of now, it has made no decision to pull them off duty or to provide personal protection. the governor of okinawa has ordered. pan's defense ministry to suspend all work at a site where a key u.s. military base is to be relocated. he said a concrete block thrown into the sea for a drilling survey of the reef at the site may have damaged some of the coral there. pepsico has elected richard fisher as a member of its board. fisher served as president and ceo of the dallas fed from 2005 to 2015. and taylor swift is staying one step ahead of porn peddlers who want to use her name on the web. she bought a couple domain names. it comes a couple months before the names become available to the public. that is your cnbc news update this hour. back the you guys. the dow and the s&p are higher. the euro regaining losses after a wild week of swings. currencies following that fed statement from janet yellen. the euro still down nearly 20% against the dollar in the past 12 months, leading investors to wonder if parity is still on the horizon. but with earnings of major u.s. corporations taking a beating, is the dollar strengthening becoming a bigger threat? joining us the head of global technical strategy mcneill curry. i cannot tell you how many people over this weekend asked me if the euro was going back to parity and are worried about their european vacations, and that euro going all the way down to 1-1. now it's back over 109. do you see it happening? >> yeah, definitely. i think the larger trend for the euro to the downside is still very much intact. what we're seeing is a period of decent volatility. last wednesday's move was the largest we'd seen since 2009. the euro-dollar short and the long position to become one of the bigger ones in financial markets. and the turn last week has led to a lot of people questioning that theme but i don't think it's damaged the longer. >> is that over with? even if the dollar goes back to its strengthening ways is it still beginning to be double digit kind of moves? >> i think probably most of that's behind. we're looking for a move and then the parity. so if you do the math out from almost 140 down to 111, and 111 down to parity is you know obviously the meat of the move is behind it. but that doesn't mean it's not going to be an impressive move. the trend we saw has been impressive, to say the least. but a move from 111 down to 110 down to parity is still a pretty big move. >> changing the subject slightly, though connectedly to gold, why are you getting more bullish? >> we have been bullish gold since november of last year. i think the big thing is if you look at gold and other currencies, gold is still a pretty decent bull trend. the fact that gold and the dollar, what we're really calling for is a breakdown in the correlation between gold and the dollar that really hasn't been intact. i mean, it was over the course of the past month or so, but since november of last year, that's broken down. if you think back to november and january, gold rallied and the u.s. dollar rallied. so we think that that negative correlation is going to continue to wither in the short term. the setup for gold is still very constructive. >> but to be clear, what are the levels you're talking about? it's not huge moves, is it? >> well, a move back up to the january highs, 1,300 or there abouts and right now we're trading 1170 or there or so. >> jeffrey told us in the beginning of the hour that it was all about currencies. that that is the lead right now. do you see that as a lead for stocks throughout 2015? in other words, the euro rebounds, stock rebounds. how close is that going to be? >> i think it's beginning to be a driver and certainly you can look at the differentials between large caps and small caps or the s&p and the russell 2000 where the russell has been outperforming the s&p for some time. but i also wouldn't lose sight of interest rates as well. the rebound in the euro or the pullback in the dollar has also transpired against the backdrop of u.s. treasury yields starting to roll back the downside and that u.s. german ten-year spread starting to narrow a little bit. currency markets are a huge driver make no mistake about it. but interest rates markets are still pretty important as well. >> all right. we'll watch it as we wait for the next fed meeting. joining us from bank of america, as the nasdaq just looks positive here. >> the dow up 35. let's send it over to dom chu for a market flash. >> happy monday simon and sarah. we're watching shares of kansas city southern, which are moving in the opposite direction. it cut its full-year sales outlook and gave weak guidance for the current quarter, citing sluggishness, and the railroad operator also says that guidance affects slower carload growth as well as the weakening of the mexican peso against the dollar. railroad companies in focus, ksu certainly under some pressure in today's up market. back over to you. coming up on the program, an injection of glamour. matthew weiner and jon hamm on the age of streaming, netflix, and the possibility of a "mad men" spin-off. 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[ male announcer ] it shouldn't be this hard. with creditcards.com, it's easy to search hundreds of cards and apply online. creditcards.com. e announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪ in new york state, we're reinventing how we do business so businesses can reinvent the world. from pharmaceuticals to 3d prototyping, biotech to clean energy. whether your business is moving, expanding or just getting started... only new york offers you zero taxes for 10 years with startup ny business incubators that partner companies with universities, and venture capital funding for high growth industries. see how new york can grow your business and create jobs. visit ny.gov/business welcome back to "squawk on the street." let's get down to the cme group. rick santelli's got the santelli exchange. good morning, rick. >> good morning, sarah, and good morning to andy brenner, my first guest of the week. thanks for taking the time. >> thanks for having me again. really appreciate it. >> all right, let's start at the first issue, and that is -- it seems as though we're not going to see normalization of rates. there's a lot of ways to describe it. moving the goal post seems to be the conventional way to do it. what's your take honor mallization? i had richard fisher on friday.on normalization? i had richard fisher on friday. regardless of your thoughts about whether we're hiccupping on the u.s. economy or the european economy is hiccupping globally certainly zero seems to have a litany of potential problems down the road. should we continue to stay there. your thoughts? >> no question about it. i've never seen the fed micromanage the economy to the extent they are. what really surprised us last week is they're now the ones that come out and manage the dollar. i thought that was the treasury's responsibility. micromanaging the economy, and we wonder if they'll ever get off zero interest rates. they will. we still look for two rate increases this year. and we'll see how the economic numbers come out over the next six or eight weeks, to see how soon they will come. >> i want to caution viewers, not necessarily something that will happen tomorrow, next week, or next month, but the notion of global liquidity, whether it's studying the october 15th flash crash, and treasuries are the unbelievable volatility in foreign exchange or all the growth in etfs. what do you say on the liquidity topic? >> rick, the one thing that keeps me up at night is not the bubbles that are being created in stocks and high yield and elsewhere. it's the lack of liquidity. and what i see on a day-to-day basis is when you go and try to get something done you know if you're in treasuries you'll still get it done, but it's much thinner than it used to be. but try to get that done in corporates or emerging markets or high yields and i've never seen it as bad. the position limits that dealers take and the capital that they put towards secondary markets right now, it's the smallest i've ever seen. it's terrible. >> unreal. last topic. it wasn't that long ago that this country believed that you really shouldn't export food you should feed your people first. but the notion of how we export it and what it's done to the capacity of our farming business that's why we have non-farm productivity. it's off the charts. what about oil? what about energy? it seems as though the saudis are trying to price frackers out of business. are we fighting with one hand tied behind our back and if we are, why? >> i'm not sure that we're not fighting with two hands behind our back. with regulations that the federal government has imposed with exporting oil and the infrastructure about exporting, i mean why can't we help out our friends in europe? why do they have to be dependent upon russia for their oil? let's get something going. let's start exporting, and let's start exporting now. we have the capacity. we have the production. let's export it and take in those hard-earned dollars. >> all right. andy i completely agree. i guess we're beginning to have to continue to press that button. now let's go back to hobbs. simon hobbs. >> two major points well made rick. thank you. in the meantime, the final season of "mad men" premieres in less than two weeks, april 5. kayla sat down with the show's top names sunday afternoon. >> it was a very fun day. a very interesting conversation with the cast of "mad men." the final installment is called "the end of an era." very aptly titled. it could apply to the show's impressive run on the air. nearly eight years, four golden globes and 15 emmy including best drama four years in a row. i sat down with the show's writer, creator, and executive producer matthew winereiner to talk about making a blockbuster show as the content business is being turned upside down. >> when we went on the air, there was no streaming, no iphone, no ipad, no twitter, and just if you're looking at oh i'm looking at the '60s and they started in 1960 and it's 1969 that must have been an incredible time of change. i'm like we're in the middle of an incredible time of change. >> what has the introduction of streaming a and social media done to your business? how would it be different if you were pitching "mad men" today? >> i think it was part of the idea and follows from "the sopranos" that you did not have to have your product appeal to the entire audience, mass audience to succeed financially. that getting a sector of it there were enough people in the united states to financially support it. so there was a lot of more diverse and specific and language specific entertainment. now that you have streaming, it's opened it up. there are a lot more jobs for people like me. there's a lot more entertainment with immediacy for people like me. >> for a long time "mad men" was a sunday night phenomenon. about three years ago, netflix came into the picture. what did that do for your audience? did it give it a second life? >> you can't look at netflix and not say it's positive to have a secondary market the same way that syndication was. a whole bunch of people in a continuing story line who weren't there at the beginning get to catch up and we definitely got a boost in terms of people who were like i never saw that but maybe i'll see that. >> "better call saul" a spin-off of the blowout success of "breaking bad." will we see a spin-off of "mad men"? is that in the cards? >> that is not in the cards. >> why not? >> it's just not what i wanted to do. different strokes. we have 92 hours of the show and that's a lot more than there were of "breaking bad." and as far as i'm concerned, the last three seasons could be a spin-off. you don't want to overstay your welcome. and i don't think saul is or "breaking bad" is in any way. it's just a different kind of story. i didn't want to exhaust the machinery that tells the story. as much as i love the idea that people are attached to the characters, something for "mad men" and leaving it the way. >> a lot of the actors disagreed and said we wish there were an opportunity for a spin-off, but without matthew weiner behind it that idea was very short-lived. we talked about the sunday night phenomenon and about the instruction of streaming. "mad men" one of the very first shows to be syndicated on syndicated on netflix. he said it makes him sad that "madmen" or any show with a set time and date is not the water cooler phenomenon or it doesn't have the community around it. >> doesn't everybody put their big shows out on sunday night? >> it used to be though. >> people would wait around for it. 10:00 p.m. monday morning, they would talk about it around the water cooler. he loved that. even though netflix opened up a new audience the fact that it is shifting to someone like him is a little bit sad. >> i stopped watching it. >> you took the draper divorce pretty hard. >> i liked it better when they were married. you interviewed her. >> we did. >> john ham. >> yes. we had some interesting conversations. we'll have more from the conversation with john hamm in "squawk alley." he has some interesting thoughts about the business of streaming and what it does for an actor. you'll want to hear what he has to say. >> better looking in person or on the screen. >> listen to you two. for goodness sakes. >> he is a very good looking man in general. >> spoken like a real journalist. >> coming up, it is the steve jobs buyingfy that has apple employees tweeting. the author will be joining "squawk alley" live in just a few minutes. revolutionary by every standard. and that became our passion. to always build something better airplanes that fly cleaner and farther on less fuel. that redefine comfort and connect the world like never before. after all, you can't turn dreams into airplanes unless your passion for innovation is nonstop. ♪ ♪ now with the xfinity tv go app, you can watch live tv anytime. it's never been easier with so many networks all in one place. get live tv whenever you want. the xfinity tv go app. now with live tv on the go. enjoy over wifi or on verizon wireless 4g lte. plus enjoy special savings when you purchase any new verizon wireless smartphone or tablet from comcast. visit comcast.com/wireless to learn more. so many questions for so many about the oil industry at the moment. the price of crude and gasoline moving forward. we are joined now from the annual wheel conference in new orleans where a lot of the major players are presenting to investors this week. take it away jackie. >> good morning to you simon. that's exactly right. some of the main themes coming out of these presentations and my conversations with about the billions of dollars in energy investments that are sitting on the sidelines right now. these are allocations that these investors have. they're here today to figure out not only when to play them but how to play them. also what we're talking about here visibility right now, very limited. not necessarily sure investors are going to get the clarity they need. and a lot of companies are saying there could be downside pressure to oil prices for the next two to three months. specifically, we heard from the schlumberger ceo. he was expecting 10 or 15% down from where it was last year. he also was saying even though rig counts are down 45%, we probably are not going to see production declines until 2016. so you'll see a little bit of a drop in the second half of the year and flattening oil production here in the united states but no drop until next year. also, he admitted it's difficult to operate in this environment when his customers are making drastic and unpredictable cuts. we're going to have more headlines out of the conference. back to you. >> valuable to get those comments from some of the energy giants. thank you for now. over to john forthwith a look at what's coming up next. >> we have one of the authors of the new book "becoming steve jobs." we're going to talk about why they're more appreciative of this book. also meerkat. we're going to look at what it does next. and john hamm talks about the impact of netflix and amazon. all that and more coming up on "squawk alley." opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. it's more than the cloud. it's multi-layered security and flexibility. with centurylink you get advanced technology solutions. including cloud and hosting services - all from a trusted it partner. centurylink. your link to what's next. i love my mileageplus® explorer card. we're saving our united miles... ...for a trip to hawaii. we love free checked bags. i've saved $75 in checked bag fees. no foreign transaction fees means real savings. we can go to any country and spend money the way we would in the u.s. one of the best things about priority boarding is you can just get on the plane and relax. i put everything on the explorer card. i really want my united miles. good monday morning. it is 4:00 p.m. in sweden. also 11:00 here on wall street and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ good monday morning. joining us is ed lee, managing editor at reed code who joins us here and good monday to you. >> to you guys too. >> with us as always john fort. let's start with apple. a new report says interest in the apple watch continues to grow. it does say consumers are his to buy the first generation of the watch, but the device itself will create a quote, positive awareness of wearables. they think the company is probably working on a car. he doesn't know for sure. but he does say with self-driving cars, this is the future and it might

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