Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20141217 : compare

Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20141217

Markets and futures rising ahead of todays fed decision. Cpi just out. As we said, the biggest drop for Consumer Prices in six years. Fedex is out with disappointing earnings. The stock is losing ground in the premarket. More leaked sony emails as the new York Premiere of the interview is canceled. Theaters cancel runs altogether. And an exclusive interview with the chairman and ceo of General Electric, jeffrey immelt, as General Electric wraps up its investor meeting from yesterday. All right. Futures pointing higher this morning. Oil prices falling. All ahead of the fed Statement Due out this afternoon as policymakers wrap up their twoday meeting. Joining us this morning, wells fargo Senior Adviser scott wren and eric la salle. Scott, how are you feeling . There was some general chatter yesterday that it felt a limit bottomish and hedge funds were beginning to come off the short Energy Trades and do a little more buying. What are you seeing where you are . I think, carl, it probably is a little bottomish. Im not a twoweek kind of guy. You know, im looking for this market to finish. Our yearend target is 2050 to 2100. I think the market is going to end a little higher. Why is that . The season . Thats where fair value is. Anything can happen over a couple weeks. I dont think the market has a whole lot of downside here over the course of the next couple weeks. People are starting to come around to, okay, fourth quarter, theres going to be some negative impact for these energy companies. As you work your way through 2015, these Lower Energy Prices are probably going to be good for the economy and net net its going to be a positive effect. I think the markets coming around to that way of thinking. Eric, maybe good for us, certainly not good for putin. Has a very Important Press Conference Tomorrow on the economy. A lot of discussion about whether or not he has hours or days to fix the situation with the ruble as they begin to put some of their reserves to work. What do you think is going to happen in the next week or two . Its obviously very messy. Russia is december tin for recession, unavoidably. Frankly, they were before oil prices dropped. Its an awful Economic Situation for them. I think perhaps the central bank is doing enough at this point in time. Theres nothing like a 6. 5 rate hike to get you to a more stable situation. The ruble seems to be demonstrating that. I dont think were in necessarily for significant further free fall on the market side. I think their economy is still in free fall. Thats not something they can easily address at this point. A quick interruption here. Geopolitical news regarding cuba. For that, we go to michelle ka rue socabrera. Appears to be dramatic events unfolding when it comes to cuba. We are waiting potentially for a statement from the white house later. We know that alan gross, whos been in prison for five years in cuba, the Obama Administration has told the Associated Press that he was put on a plane, sent back to the United States. A Development Worker there. The situation there had been quite contentious. But there are reports that theres a potential policy change toward cuba and reuters citing state tv in cuba says that president raul castro is going to make an important announcement at noon regarding u. S. Relations. The embargo against cuba was imposed in 1962. If dramatic changes are announced today, it would be an incredible change, carl. We dont know what they are. But certainly we could be looking at something akin to the situation with iran and the attempts to cool or improve the relationship with iran. We should also point out that cuba is in a very tough position because of the situation with the price of oil. Remember, they get 100,000 Barrels Per Day free. I mean, theres some supposed relationship with venezuela, but its heavily discounted. Theyre heavily reliant on that oil from venezuela. You can be sure they are incredibly concerned about what is happening with the situation in venezuela and whether or not theyre going to continue to receive that oil. That may be pushing them to try to come to a deal with the United States. There are a lot of hurdles within u. S. Law about actually improving things dramatically because theyre going to have to pay back certain debts to u. S. Investors, thats written into u. S. Law right now, before we can make dramatic changes. Back to you. Wow. Michelle, you seem to be intimating the embargo may be lifted. I dont want to put words in your mouth, and i know youre not saying that, but is that a real possibility . Absolutely its a possibility. Today, no . But at some point it was definitely going to occur. One, because exiles in florida were no longer supportive of the embargo. So its not the political issue that it was for so long when it came to u. S. Elections and winning florida necessarily. So whether or not it could be today, i dont know. Remember, to remove the embargo actually takes an act of congress. But theres a lot of things that obama could do executively in order to change the situation for sure. The president is going to make a statement in the cabinet room at 12 01 eastern time. But certainly could be looking at a big thaw in cubanu. S. Relations. Michelle, i know youll have more in a little bit. Thank you so much. Back to scott and eric. Eric, that peak your interest . It does. I mean, its more i think of a political, cultural type of event than one that has a big impact on the market. But absolutely its relevant. Eric, let me follow up on not just russia but some of these other economies that are getting pressured. Conceivably cuba amongst them. Small, though, that economy may be. But brazil or mexico. And this risk of potential con tod todayon as well. How big of a problem conceivably could this be . I think some of that con today on. One of the softening impacts is just that oil probably has overshot at this point. We shouldnt assume 55 or 60 barrels are the price Going Forward. But it is a hit to them. Where i think theres been an overreaction is the contagion elsewhere. You look at some of those fragile five economies, like the indias of the world, that benefit from lower oil. I think markets are being a little ham handed in their treatment of those countries. Maybe well see some reversal there. Scott, just a remarkable i mean, this cuba news puts into some relief what russia is going through, what irans going through. I mean, obviously there are concerns when you have dislocations like this in this short period of time. But the people who have had antagonistic relations with this country, we sort of had them over a barrel to some point. That would be a shocking outcome to me, carl. Thats kind of coming out of the left field for me. I have to process that for a little bit. Id love to see that embargo lifted. You think that feeds into sentiment at all . You know, i think it might just a little bit. You know, i think the market is you know, you talk about these emerging market countries. Theyve issued debt in u. S. Dollars. Currencies are getting hit. Oil is going down. The markets worried about not only highyield, u. S. Debt issued by these oil companies, but also these emerging countries that have debt issued in u. S. Dollars or other currencies than their own. Those are some of the overall concerns. Theres a laundry list of concerns out there, carl. But that, i think, sentimentwise, thats interesting. I dont think it would have a lot of play. All right. Thanks, guys. The ruble is regaining a bit of ground one day after it tumbled to a record low. The Russian Finance Ministry announcing to sell its excess holdings and calling the ruble extremely undervalued. Jeff is in moscow and brings us the latest. Reporter yeah, its fascinating. Over the last couple hours, weve seen russian government working very hard to pull together significant actors. The ceos of Major Energy Companies and mining businesses. The idea here is that they want to get these businesses that have significant Foreign Currency Holdings to work in coalition with the government to send a message to the currency markets that we will sell foreign currency to try and restabilize the russian ruble. Weve seen the finance Ministry Come to the table and say theyll spend up to 7 billion to make that happen. The central bank, we know, has put a couple billion on the table. It does seem to be having some effect. We have some stability now in the russian currency. The big issue well, lets say there are two. One will be what happens with janet yellen and the fed. There are lots of companies that have foreign currency denominated debt and they want to know theres still going to be plenty of dollars around in the world Going Forward to try and help service their debt. And the second big thing were waiting for, of course, is this fourhour press conference involving president putin. Thatll take place tomorrow. He hasnt spoken about the state of the economy or the ruble recently, and were looking forward to him making some remarks about that. And of course he may also talk about ukraine. John kerry interestingly making some comments that he thought there could be some room for progress, particularly for president putin is prepared to deescalate on this story. If that led to the removal of sanctions, that would give the russians access again to dollar capital markets. Something that would definitely help on this ruble story. Carl, let me send it to you. Jeff, thank you so much. Were glad youre there to keep us updated on the story from moscow. Thanks very much. Meantime, back in this country, fedex reporting quarterly profit of 2. 14 a share. That is a miss. Company says higher volumes were offset by a rise in Aircraft Maintenance costs. They still say theyre on track to meet 8. 50 to 9. That took some people by surprise today. It did. Its a strongly performing stock. I could almost channel jim and say every time this thing goes down, you want to potentially buy it because eneve that bli, it seems to gain ground after either a missed quarter or sometimes a warning. That being said, the criticisms of the company to the extent there are is its more of an Airplane Company than a Package Delivery company. They could be more efficient. But the stock is going to be down this morning, at least in the early going. We always look at some of the volume numbers. Express, revenue a little light. Volume up seven. Revenue per package on express, which is their largest business, was a tad negative. Ground volume up five. Revenue up eight. Margins hanging in there. Well see what kind of impact that has on the broader market. Of course, everybody trying to get as many clues as they can to how the thanksgiving holiday went. In fact, fedex is on that november quarter. They are. Of course, the busiest time of the year by far for both fedex, u. P. S. And the u. S. Postal service. When we come back, were going to talk live and excleesively with ges chairman and ceo jeff immelt. Well hear what he has to say about low oil prices. Also ahead, taking the pulse of the Housing Market with pulte. Take one more look at the futures. Fed meeting and press conference this afternoon. Six years to the date that the fed went to near zero Interest Rates. Back in a minute. After trying to stage some buying yesterday, oil is back below 55 today. Jackie deangelis is with us. Good morning. Were lower on both sides of the atlantic this morning. Looking at prices at 55. 08 right now, off of session lows today. Intraday low was 54. 21. Yesterdays intraday low, 53. 60. Sentiment right now according to the traders is downward. We did get a bearish api report last night on weekly inventories. Were waiting for that d. O. E. Number at 10 30. Thats what traders are watching right now. As long as theres no change in the supply demand equation, were expecting these prices to go down. Of course, the opec daily basket price, 55. 91. Thats a bit of a leading indicator. Meantime, gas prices continue to fall. According to aaa, 2. 51 today, down 71 cents from last year. Substantial move there. Of course, its a fed day. Were going to be watching the fed, what it says and what impact that has on the dollar. Guys, back to you. All right. Thanks very much, jackie. Lets now head to the bond pits. Rick santelli is at the cme group in chicago. Thanks, david. I dont know if study is the word, but it definitely applies in front of the statement in the press conference last of 2014. We do see rates steady, albeit at low levels. Look at a one day. Maybe more important is a two day. The one day you can see were holding, but heres something important. On the two day, were building above yesterdays low. Thats not a condition weve had much in the past week or two. If you look at a year to date, you know, its somewhat mind boggling considering, you know, were close to a 31 return, total return on a 30year bond. Nobody liked being long. Were approaching 100 basis points lower than where we finished 2013. I think thats amazing. If we look at the fives to tens spread, i think that this is key or 5s to 30s. Either one. Because of the flattening. Both of those go back to january 2009. I suspect any fed action is going to continue to exaggerate that flattening situation. Twoday bunds very revealing on the consolidation. We have a Double Bottom at 57 basis points, the historic low yield. If you go back to november 3rd on tens versus bunds, you can see that magic 150 is still a good calibration. A twoday of ten year jgbs shows, yes, they are hovering at a 35 basis point low. The euro versus the dollar, its a little lower today, but it has been holding considering all the Central Bank Cross currents. Back to you, carl. All right, rick. Thanks a lot. When we come back, a closer look inside fedexs earning miss. Well find out what one Analyst Thinks we should do with the stock right now, which is down about 4 premarket. Also ahead, an exclusive with ges jeff immelt. Dow is down. Back in a minute. Fedex shares are falling in the premarket after the delivery giant reported an earnings miss. Profits up less than expected despite lower fuel prices. The company did reaffirm its outlook for 2015. Lets bring in art hatfield with Raymond James to get more. What stood out to you from the report this morning, art . Well, actually, i think we were the one outlier on the street where the company beat our estimates. We were at 2. 08 on the quarter. The thing that jumps out with reaction, i think a lot of my peers were a little too aggressive on the impact from fuel from the quarter. While its somewhat of a straightforward calculation, the application of how it flows through the companys business is not so simple. So i think some of the estimates were a little bit ahead based on that. As a result, youre getting a little bit of a negative reaction this morning before the market opens. Any expectation that the lessthanexpected savings from fuel is going to continue . I mean, they did reaffirm their outlook. They did. And i think the biggest takeaway here is that more importantly than just fuel is that the companys on target with regard to their Cost Reduction program. We saw significant improvement in margin at the express unit. Really, thats the unit that provides the most operating leverage. So i think because of that and because theyre on pace with that program, the company felt comfortable reaffirming its guidance for the full year. Yeah, and any sense of the current environment in terms of especially given this time of year, which is typically the busiest for this company . Well, as we look at the quarter specifically overall, volumes were ahead of our expectations. So i think the demand environment is pretty good. Revenue was a little bit light, but that was driven by lower fuel surcharge. So i think overall directionally, they got to feel pretty good about what theyre seeing from their customers and on the cost side the stuff that they can truly control. Theyre doing a pretty good job. As a result, we should see good numbers for the rest of the year. All right. Arthur, well leave it there. Thanks for joining us. Thank you. Arthur hatfield with Raymond James. Seven minutes before the bell. Lets bring in art cashin. Morning to you. Morning. Five different stories of the day. Whats going to be the key one . Well, i think it will be the fed and what comes out in the press conference. Ill be interested to see if the press asks her, did they discuss oil, did they discuss several of these things . In my commentary i put out this morning, i piggy backed on john, who did some work where a good deal of the increase in employment that weve gotten came from shale, the oil boom. Thats provided almost all of the gains weve seen, either directly or indirectly. Itll be interesting to see how the fed discussion goes. Well be curious to see if she gets the question or whether she entertains it and how she answers it. Not just in terms of employment but on the other side of the equation as well, whether it be inflation or lack thereof. And the credit markets too. Can you really administer another bhiping to the emerging markets by starting to raise rates here and have the dollar get Even Stronger . And particularly with them under stress with whats going on in russia. I think this could be a really animated fomc meeting. We wont know that until after. Away from that, my usual point, the seasonals are screaming for a rally. Theyve been frustrated by both oil and whats going on in russia. This cpi number is amazing. Isnt that a weird day on which to remove language like considerable period . Yes, it would appear to be. World events and the statistics were getting, kind of leaning against the fomc. Would you expect them to keep it . I think theres at least a 50 shot they do keep it in. I think the big benefit is shes go

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