Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20140421 : compare

CNBC Squawk On The Street April 21, 2014

Break. The s p and the dow coming off the best week since july. Will the momentum continue . Plus, it is a big week for earnings, results expected today from netflix and kimberly clark. Mcdonalds, boeing, facebook, apple, all will have reported by the end of the week. A lot of tech news, nike reportedly leaving the wearables market. And more trouble for General Motors. New documents showing that the automaker waited years to recall hundreds of thousands of saturn ions with power steering problems. First up, though, we are basing for a barrage of Earnings Reports. Netflix tonight, tomorrow, mcdonalds, travelers, utx, at t, wednesday, boeing, p g before the bell and a big night on wednesday, apple and facebook after the bell. On thursday, well get c. A. T. , gm, 3m, microsoft, visa and amazon. And well close out the week with ford results on friday. I mean, this is talk about the calm before the storm. Not a lot to work with today, but we all know how crazy were going to be in about 48 hours. I cant tell which one im most excited for. If you have to pick up themes, what to look for out of these companies, guidance for sure, because this quarter was heavily impacted by the weather, especially in some of those consumer names like mcdonalds. Tomorrow, china is a big factor because we know the chinese economy has slowed down a bit. Well see how that impacts Corporate America. And any general comments about the weather and the consumer, still in a sub 3 gdp environment. Whats that going to do for Revenue Growth . And the bifurcation, where price doesnt matter as much because everybodys believing in growth as we get to the end of the week. As we hear from a facebook, that may embolden those who are believers or perhaps start to impact yet again what weve seen going on in this market over the last lets call it four weeks at this point, at least, five weeks. Apple perhaps more cash return to shareholders. Theyre going to generate a lot of cash. When i think of apple, i think of a value stock conceivably given where the p e is. Nobody would question the multiple being so low so the expectations, perhaps, not quite as great there, but yeah, the cash return always so important for apple. And of course, netflix tonight might be an interesting case study. Got a stock, its down 6 so far this year. Is there anything they can say regarding subscriber growth, original content . All the metrics were used to looking for. Can that reduce the turn . Itll be an interesting experiment tonight. Their own target is 38 million subscribers for the quarter. That includes international and u. S. Some analysts say thats ambitious. But netflix does tend to be conservative when it comes to its estimates. Its down 20 , actually, since its peak back in february. Still up over the last year. But again, if you are one of the momentum investors, but certainly one of those investors who have been getting crushed over the last, lets call it month or hedge funds that has been very much engaged in believing in the growth stories of many of these companies, this is a very important week when you look at the earnings from those very companies. It may give you the evidence you need to keep believing or, perhaps, the opposite. Well, on that note, theyre also reporting. Exactly. Its been so important. Yeah. Joining us this morning, managing director, chief Market Strategist with oppenheimer asset management. Happy monday to both of you guys. Good to see you. Jim, your general take is were still in a 2. 5 economy and you dont see that changing through the course of the year. No, i think the 2. 5 to 3 is going to be the growth this year. And that to me gives quite a bit momentum. The First Quarter, though, was clearly below trend given the weather, given the inventory cycle, inventories got a bit high at the end of last year. With the First Quarter being a bit slow, i think what you saw in the early parts of this month is some hedge funds going short, coming out of the market on the basis they might get a weak earnings season. I dont think theyre going to get that. I think the earnings over the next week or two will be really quite strong and affirm the momentum in the market. The money section today, businesses finally ready to spend, which, of course, for all the bulls hoping for an acceleration in capex, thats what youre looking for if, in fact, this is true. I think more than half of businesses see an increase. Its actually the highest number in about four quarters. Wed say its true. Weve been looking for this. And we think that some of the words that weve been hearing from a number of activists over the last quarter would point to enough on the Financial Engineering and enough of the boosting dividends and now time to invest in the business. And we think the markets ready for it and so is the economy. Whats different about this earnings season, we go into every earnings season with lowered expectations from analysts and then companies sort of not exactly any kind of spectacular growth. But whats different this time around is valuations have gone up. Is there a disconnect between what were seeing in earnings and what were seeing in valuations . I dont think there really is on valuations. Valuations are a little bit up. Theyre a little bit above the longterm averages. But when you get them so close to averages with decent momentum in the economy, that means that youre still in a positive tone to the market. Maybe in baseball terms, its the sixth or seventh innings, but its certainly not near the end of the game yet. I havent heard anybody mention the fed yet either, though. By the way, i think weve got on friday, we kind of saw the yields tick up a bit. Yeah, we did. Modestly, though. Modestly, although the move up on friday at least got peoples attention. I mean, the fed is backing off a bit. That is sort of the undercurrent, if you will yeah. That weve seen throughout the market. Part of it would seem, david, that janet yellen is getting a feel for how shes going to deal with the market with the media. I think shes still relatively new even though shes been at the fed for a lock forever. Shes the best at communicating but not as the lead dog, so to speak. And thats a big difference. And when youre drawing the sled, everybodys trying to get an idea to interpret. Do you say what you mean . Do you mean what you say . Im not too worried about the fed, david, but im concerned about the international aspects. You know, as the fed pulls back, someone else has got to increase the Monetary Base and emerging markets in europe. And it doesnt seem that their central banks, either the ecb or in the emerging markets are doing enough. If i was to look at something that might be negative over the next six months, its the lack of growth in europe, the bumpy slowdown in emerging markets. Those are the things that the slightly more negative people should be watching for. But i remain pretty positive on u. S. Equities. Would you continue to withdrawal from some of these growth names in favor of value names . I think probably. You dont think its done yet . No. I dont think it was done. There was a bit of a bubble in the social media stock. Facebook is a real company. It will, actually, i mean, like google, itll be a longterm prospect. But it may have got ahead of itself whereas apples probably cheap. Probably playing value is a better idea than playing Growth Stocks right now. John, you buy that idea into rotation, into slower growing, perhaps less sexy stocks than the high fliers weve been seeing . Well, its basically a different mode in the market. Its a thematic thats being played now. And i think were going to continue to see people coming back into equity markets. Everything is relative. And if you consider all the asset classes, do you want to be in cash, do you want to be in stocks, in bonds . It keeps coming back. I want to be in stocks. Your target for year end of 2014 is its 2014, 2014 in 2014. Nobody gave you a hard time about that . Oh, you bet they did. Jeff cox originally gave us a hard time and reminded everybody we were the first on the street with it later on. What leads you to that number . What led us to that number was a dividend discount model as well as a quantitative analysis. And then we put it right in the middle. It was a good number for us to remember. Thats a laugh. Yes. But it also what we do think is that the market is taking advantage of an economic recovery that now is beyond recovery and is an economic expansion. It feels different this time, certainly the stock market. Is there any sign the volatility weve been witnessing over the last weeks is ebbing and things will go smoothly . I think it most certainly has been ebbing. It could always come back. What we have noticed over the last 4 1 2, 5 years, whenever it gets a little sleepy, something happens to get a catalyst, but its mostly for technical reasons. You expecting bumps along the way . Yeah. There will be bumps. I tend to be more of the volatility will continue school of thought. Some of that is the trading structure thats been talked about a lot in the last few weeks, some of that is the bumps in the roads for the policy issues abroad. So i dont think the markets going to be calm. But i think its going to be quite good. And i started the year thinking 10 . I didnt actually catch the 2014 number. It would be about 14 , actually. So im not far apart. I do think there is room for optimism here. Jim, john, thanks so much for kicking us off on this week. Meantime, mobile payments started square, denying acquisition talks. This after the wall street journal reported that square whose ceo is jack dorsey has discussed the sale of Companies Including to google. Cnet reporting that nike will exit the wearable market and concentrate instead on software. And we do have a content sharing partnership. A lot of tech news today. The square stuff, obviously, has been getting notice because they did raise they got a Credit Facility a couple of weeks ago. The general thinking at the time, eat when the food is passed not when youre hungry. Right. It is available. Take it when you can. Makes it sound like they are burning cash and will use that money by the end of the year. Yeah, in terms of weve got a lot of different reports of various potential deals that arent going to happen. Taking this to an entirely different place, quickly. The one that i think is true this morning is the journal story about barrack and newmont from this weekend, there are significant synergies there. You cant rule out the idea, at least, those two gold mining giants would come together. As for technology, i will pass that baton to you. Well, im interested in the nike story because nikes made a really big push strategically for a while and investment in digital. And the fuel band, of course. So this is a scene, theyre getting rid of all of their staff, at least a majority of it. Interesting to see as the article suggesting its pushing from hardware to software in an increasingly crowded hardware space, especially in wearable technology. The question is, can nike make inroads in getting these devices. Tim cook is on nikes board. That is interesting and, of course, we know apple is looking heavily at wearables. And then theres the jawbones of the world and so many others. Perhaps they dont see it as a core competency. Its a nice endorsement for nike, as well. Yeah, but your point about being Critical Mass in terms of hardware in the market and maybe the smarter thing is to when facebook thought about doing the phone briefly and then said you know what, were not going to get into the very vertical business of trying to get gadget in peoples hands and just back it up with software instead. And thats interesting, actually, in light of the Facebook News that you mentioned earlier, getting into the ad market. Because this is a move that people were waiting for a long time. From facebook. Perhaps unveiled at the conference that it holds, unveiling some new technology. And well talk to a wellknown analyst about nikes plans later on this morning. When it rains, it pours for General Motors. More fallout from the recall crisis. The details when we return. Also ahead, mobile Satellite Company global star listing today here at the nyse. Well talk to the companys chairman and ceo later on. One more look at futures, coming off the best week since july, but nasdaq has just more than 2 to getting back to break even for the month of april. Th. Government documents released over the weekend showed that gm waited years to recall nearly 335,000 saturn ions for power steering failures. Hey, phil. Hey, carl. This reinforces the opinion of many people that General Motors really has been dragging its feet over the last ten years when it comes to recalls. This is involving a recall that was issued on march 31st for the saturn ion 2004 to 2007 models, almost 335,000. They had problems with power steering, and there were thousands of complaints as these documents now show. In fact, saturn ions, steering complaints date back to 2004 with General Motors receiving almost 30,000 ion warranty claims. Now, in documents that were provided to the federal government just last week, last year said to gm, look, you guys are slow to act when it comes to recalls. The documents that were seeing today reinforce that. Showed that General Motors relied on Service Bulletins instead of actual recalls in order to alert dealerships to a potential problem. As you take a look at shares of General Motors, a couple of things to keep in mind. We reached out for a comment. The company says, look, that is part of what were trying to change here. The culture of the company is being addressed in terms of putting safety as the top priority. Also, keep in mind, guys. General motors will be reporting earnings on thursday morning. It is going to be a messy Earnings Report. A lot of charges in there, at least 1. 3 billion. Im looking at those Service Bulletins right now. If you didnt have a saturn ion or if you had one, you may have been driving around without realizing the dealership was alerted of the problem. But the general public may not have been aware. Yeah, problematic, phil. I saw comments over the weekend, i think out of china, theyre speaking at the beijing auto show saying theyre not seeing a big hit on sales from the recall. Bold statement, confident, i would think. And the data backs that up. We talked with people of the new york auto show, even critics saying traffic in gm showrooms has not fallen off despite this recall crisis over the last month. So far, not a big hit to gm sales here in the United States. Thanks very much for the update. Up next on squawk on the street, a brand new week of trading wont be as volatile as the last few weeks. The one and only art cashin to navigate through it all. Take a look at futures ahead of the opening bell. Looks set to open higher. Coming off four straight sessions of gains. More squawk on the street when we come back. We come back. S at your ford dealer think . They think about tires. And what theyve been through lately. Polar vortexes, road construction, and gaping potholes. So with all that behind you, you might want to make sure youre safe and in control. Ford technicians are ready to find the right tires for your vehicle. Get up to 120 in mailin rebates on four select tires when you use the Ford Service Credit card at the big tire event. See what the ford experts think about your tires. At your ford dealer. Predibut, manufacturings a prettin the United States do. Means advanced technology. We learned that Technology Allows us to be craft oriented. No ones losing their job. Theres no beer robot that has suddenly chased them out. The technology is actually creating new jobs. Siemens designed and built the right tools and resources to get the job done. All right. Here we are. About 8 1 2 minutes before the opening bell. Art cashin wearing his snazzy jelly bean easter tie. Good to see you, art. Thank you. Were coming off of four days of gains. Stocks had the best week last week in months since back in july for the s p. Its all earnings this week. Can we keep it going . Well, you possibly can. As i said last week, the reversal on tuesday was a pretty solid reversal. And i think that may have cleared up some of the anxiety about liquidations and some of the momentum in highteches. So you have a decent base. The earnings, i think, people are going to want to see what really are the outlooks. Earnings have kept up, but its been mostly Financial Engineering. Revenues have not really done a heck of a lot of anything. So theyll be looking at that. Right above i dont expect much today because many markets around the globe are closed. S p a little resistance at 1869. 74. And well see where we go. I expect a sleepy session. Leading indicators, unless theres a huge surprise, i dont see any move out of that. And i think youre right, theyre going to wait for earnings probably almost until midweek to get a real handle. Raises a question. Last week, i be, m had a big miss, google had a big miss. And actually, the market rallied or at least finished not so bad. What is the trade off earnings these days. Those are big bell weathers. They are big bell weathers, but they didnt necessarily carry the day. People trying to figure out whether that Financial Engineering can keep going. You know, ibms bought back probably 10 of the outstanding shares. So it is tough for the market to really gauge how to play that. Midweek, well start to have a stronger handle on where things are. Ukraine, i guess, is reasonably quiet. I expect a sleepy session. If we do blow through some resistance. If you were to set an aggressive target, can this get us to 1900 . 1,920 . It wouldnt take much. Youve got this initial resistance here, get through that then 1,880 to 1,882, and then after that, the recent high up at 1897. And that teneyear, a 2. 7 yeah. For now, quiet, not peace in our time, but relative quiet. But i think youre going to watch the tenyear below 2. 6. Well show some anxiety, above 2. 78. Well show the fact that rates may begin to pressure people. You know, weve been watching

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