Transcripts For CNBC Squawk On The Street 20130905

Fiveyear lows just moments ago and data at adp, 176,000 jobs last month. All of this as you mentioned before the big jobs report comes out tomorrow morning. This is one to watch as it inches ever closely to that 3 mark. Question is whether investors are ready for it. Bank of england and ecb are stating pat on the key decisions today. Plenty more with simon and the close later on. The road map today begins with the jobs data. Unemployment up while weekly jobless claims fall again. The smartwatch competition has started with both samsung and qualcomm unveiling their first wearable devices. We will have both on the show. Yahoo rolling out the new logo for the First Time Since 2009. And symbolic of many recent changes of the company under the new ceo Marissa Mayer. As if that wasnt enough, jcpenney is talking Martha Stewarts home goods line before a judge even decides the outcome of the threeway licensing battle with macys. And speaking of threeways, bk, brian. Thank you. Its good to be here. I see everybody else was off. Yes. That time of year again. Markets are digesting all of this mornings data ahead of the jobs report tomorrow from the labor department. Lets expand the discussion and bring in dan greenhouse with btig and scott, senior equity strategist with wells fargo advisers. Guys, good morning. Good morning. Dan, first to you. Last night some really interesting comments where youve got the feds John Williams seeming dovish, talking like he supports bernanke, believes the Unemployment Rate is falling. Bhil at the same time coming out and saying, no, fed needs to keep doing. What does it all mean . Obviously you have a number of people on both sides of the equation and ultimately what it comes down to is what the core of the central bank essentially ben bernanke thinks and in that regard i dont think anything either one of them changes, the story in september, theyll probably reduce asset purchases. Although i think that will be a bit less than the market expects right now. Were talking about what, ten days out at this point. While at the same time youve got this whole issue with syria while at the same time there are discussions with who is going to succeed bernanke, dan. You dont think any of that saves their hand for now . No, i do not. But again, mind you, the important question here is not that that go ahead and reduce asset purchases. Its what they do after that. No harm, no foul if they reduce asset purchases by 10 billion and keep it there through the end of the year. I think that buys you time to deal with the issues that you discussed. Scott, the Employment Situation is supposed to be front and center. Today weve got this weekly jobless, the best of four or five years. A real strong picture. And yet its hard to argue that actually the labor market is accelerating arguably. You know, its still slow and steady as we saw in the beige book yesterday. What do you think, what is the view of the fmoc of employment specifically . Well, simon, i think that our projections, lets say initial jobless claims, for us, by the end of the year, our projection for the fourweek moving average is down to 300,000. Thats obviously some decent improvement from here. I think it is going to be slow. I dont think were going to see an acceleration there. I mean, much like the economy. You know, i dont expect much acceleration. If i looked out through the end of 2014. Marginally better, sure. But not a lot better. The fmoc, i think, you know, on their gdp estimates, they are too high. They are too high for this year. Theyre too high for next year. I think their unemployment numbers are pretty much in line but i still think youre going to be around 7. 2 or so on the Unemployment Rate this year. Theyre going to think of that but the fed, overall, is too optimistic in their economic projections. At least in my opinion. Hey, scott, quickly here. I want to ask you because youve got a lot of listeners. Scott, hold on for one second. Were giving you a live look. The president arriving at g20 st. Petersburg, russia. Showing a shot of him getting out of the him malimo. Also, of course, you have noises from both russia and china over specifically the fed. Argument that they should be very careful as to how rapidly they withdraw for the effect they have on emerging markets. Brazil, of the view, just get on with it. Not only is americas the worlds policeman, were the worlds central banker now. Yes. Fantastic. Nothing new there, right, guys . Unfortunately, scott. We have a lot of people, 6 00 in the morning in los angeles. Sitting in dead traffic in the 405. Their brain hurts thinking about the federal reserve. They just want to know what to do with their money. What do they do with their money . Well, the one thing that you know, do not fret over what the fed is going to do. I mean, they are going to taper. Whatever reaction we get in the market, underlying fundamentals are improving. If we see a selloff because, you know, they cut more, you know, lets say they cut 30 billion which i think is almost impossible, but, you know, if they cut 10, thats not so bad. But people need to be in here looking at pullbacks as opportunities. They need to be buying stocks in the consumer discretionary, Something Like Home Improvement retail, technology, communications equipment. Industrials sector. You know, railroads, things like that. Things that are sensitive to the economy because i think the economy is going to be marginally better here. The lei, leading indicators are turning up in europe. Youre going to see better news there. Emerging markets are going to come around a little bit in 2014. So you want to be in this market. You dont want to be sitting on a ton of cash. You dont want to be defensive. You want to look ahead and be in this market. Okay. Dan, just on the shorter time horizon, clearly the bond market is moving in anticipation of what the fed might do. 2. 92 is the yield on the tenyear and clearly heading higher, it would appear. I think you wrote yesterday that the equity market could quite easily withstand tapering. It surely hasnt factored in a tapering as things stand at the moment because we dont know the quantity or the timing. I dont disagree with you entirely. But at the same time, its not like the idea that the fed is going to reduce asset purchases as something new and when and if they reduce purchases in september, its suddenly going to catch all of us off guard. One thing i would disagree with is market purchases have not accounted for this. Again, the yield on the tenyear was 13 months ago was 140. Today its 292. So i mean the equity market may not be down as much as people think. But i find it hard to believe that people in the market and, again, i dont advise retail people. Btigs clients are all institutions. They know somethings coming. This is not a surprise. Dan, thats whats interesting about this. I guess you could argue its the market pushing the fed or expecting a more aggressive response. Certainly than anything that theyve told us. But weve already now effectively had a massive tightening event happen in the u. S. Economy over the last 12, 14 months. To go from 140 to 3 on the tenyear. Where does that leave us . Listen record auto sales. Higher home price, and more jobs. Brians right. I mean, listen. Partially brians right. Say it again. I wont. But listen, its the idea was never that, although for some people it was, but the idea was never that the economy couldnt withstand any increase on n. Interest rates. At the end of the day i could find instances in which the equity market did just fine when Interest Rates were 4 or 5 hrs paul ryanhrs or 6 or higher. The biggest problem has been the speed of the adjustment, not necessarily the level. Lets not forget 290 on the tenyear is a very low Interest Rate. No, i know, by historical standards and yada yada. I just think, brian, you make the point that so far everything looks aokay . I think the jury we havent gotten full data as to what is happening in the Housing Market. Okay. Let me just dial it back a little bit because now i feel like the old man on the panel, okay, because i was born when there was a 7 in a year. Scott wren may be able to back us up. Im the oldest on the panel. I just believe that americans are smart enough to understand that 4 1 2 on the mortgage is still a darn good rate. Im not going to rip my shirt off and run through the lower streets of manhattan when we hit 3 on the tenyear. It is relativity. Yes, but the beige book would argue against you. The beige book, as you know very positive. Beige book spoke about people actually bringing forward their purchases on existing homes rather than new homes for near that the Mortgage Rate is rising. Of course people want to spend less than more but theyre not going to stop buying homes at 4 1 2 mortgages. I spoke to five realtors in the last to weeks and they are doing well. I spoke to a rel or last week who had five bids on the same home and it was a jumbo mortgages. People dont stop buying houses. They end up buying smaller houses to accommodate for the higher Mortgage Rate. Well follow it. Dan, scott, thank you for your time this morning. If you want to read up more again on jumbo rates, its on the front page of the journal today. Samsung unveiled galaxy gear smart watch. It works as an accessory to the smartphone. Small screen offers photos, well, i think its a camera, handsfree calls and instant messages. Some question whether its too costly. Priced just about 300. Qualcomm is getting in on the game with its talk smart watch which can play music and handle phone messages. I would have talk the talk would have been more appropriate for you because you probably dont have the galaxy which the samsung relies sglon also, i like to talk. Theres that which led me to my current career, by the way. The reality is if its linked to your phone. I dont wear a watch. I gave jeffrey on the air one day and never got it back. If this watch does things by itself, i might be interested. If it has to be linked to a phone, why carry around two devices. Im not sure what the wifi things are doing to our brains anyway. Hardware, in advance of aid to copy apple but the advance on the rollout. Interesting thing. Wearable tech, google glass. A lot of people love it. A lot of people are calling people these glass whatever something, you know, swiss cheese. That kind of a thing going on there. Wearable tech. Bottom line, simon, youre a fashionable, dapper fellow, would you wear that watch . No. Bingo. But i dont think im a very good guy because im too old. I was born with with 8. 6 in the decade. Really . Yes. A lot of work. Appears development in the meantime involving jcpenney thats not going to bode well for Martha Stewart. Coming up, well explain that one. Also ahead, scoring big when it comes to video game stocks bhap the emergence of new consoles could mean for the rally we have seen already in those shares. Squawk on the street will be right back. In todays markets, a lot can happen in a second. With fidelitys guaranteed onesecond trade execution, we route your order to up to 75 Market Centers to look for the best possible price maybe even better than you expected. Its all part of our goal to execute your trade in one second. Im derrick chan of fidelity investments. Our onesecond trade execution is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Now get 200 free trades when you open an account. Nascar is ab. Out excitement but tracking all the action and hearing everything from our marketing partners, the media and millions of fans on social media can be a challenge. Thats why we partnered with hp to build the new nascar fan and media engagement center. Hps Technology Helps us turn millions of tweets, posts and stories into realtime Business Insights that help nascar win with our fans. Welcome back. Jcpenney is reportedly scrapping Martha Stewarts line of home goods. This according to the New York Post, saying penney ceo is saying the judge has not yet ruled on a scuffle that involves pe penney, stewart and macys. They soured on the Stewart Brand because items are not selling and the designs, quote, arent that great. Strong words here. He does continue to undo a lot of the initiatives with ron johnson was involved with. Is he trying to do a deal, an outofcourt settlement . Perhaps. But i think this one was looking at penneys favor anyway because they said martha had broken the promise going on with pamacys. What is your assessment of the designs in the stores . My family went into a jcpenney in the Apple Blossom mall on sunday, my mom, my daughters grandmother, bought her to back to School Clothes as a gift, the store was packed. They loved the store. In the Martha Stewart section . No. Im just saying weve been covering on jcpenney on street signs for two years now. Our guests have been bashing it. There is a sense you get. Ive gone to a couple of Different Stores here. I dont think the one here many manhattan is a good representation. The food traffic is artificial because of the train station. I think there might be a turn here. You wonder if at some point ron johnsons vision, if they can keep the cash going, right, if his vision may turn out to be right. Will he be ultimately vindicated. Is the johnson vision and the ullman vision the same . No. Johnson was no discounting, no coupons, hip it, modernize it, change the logo. Logo is a big discussion there. Changed the logo. That was a real change of logo, by the way. Ron johnson also introduced i think i went to one in richmond, virginia, had a se forea in the middle of the store. Sephoras a highend chain of stores and they had one in the jcpenney and it was getting decent traffic when i was there. To somewhat extent are they going to be successful and do you credit ron johnson or if mike ullman changes things up a little bit how does that picture t it . Another retail story here but im sure courtney would have an opinion on jcpenney as well but shes covering a different story. Numerous walmart employees and supporters will participate in nationwide protests today. The workers seeking better jobs and higher pay. They want 12 bucks an hour on average and also 70 workers reinstated who were allegedly fired for protesting a few years ago. The demonstrations are scheduled to take place in more than a dozen cities. One of them being new york. Cnbcs Courtney Reagan is there with the latest. Courtney . Hi, good morning to you, brian. Thats right. Im on fifth avenue in new york city and i told our walmart is a Labor Rights Group expects 50 protesters to show up in an hour from now here outside the office of Christopher Williams. Mr. Williams is the ceo of Williams Capital Management. Hes also a walmart board member. All of these protesters will have petition in hand with 200,000 signatures that they plan or hope to deliver to mr. Williams, demanding better worker rights. The group says that since june, 80 workers have been illegally disciplined. 20which have been fired. They have asked walmart to respond to the demands to reinstate the workers and they say because walmart has not done so they are staging these protests. In a handful of cities around the country throughout the day today at both walmart locations and board member offices or homes. Again, like the one here today. Now, our walmart, again, is planning to have about 50 people here that will be protesting. But only a handful are expected to actually be walmart employees. The rest are activists, clergy members. Other type of Union Supporters here. We will speak to them when they show up and begin the protests. Walmart employs 1. 23 million folks in the United States alone. The company says that their average fulltime hourly wage is 12. 83 an hour, according to more than 25,000 a year. The retailer says more than 85,000 of the associates earn 18 or more an hour. Walmart disagrees with those statistics. We reached out to walmart for a statement on whats happening today and walmart spokesperson brook buchanan said walmart will continue to serve customers in over 4600 locations. We believe the unionsponsored demonstrations made up of Union Members and activists in a handful of stores will cause little disruption to our overall operations. I spoke to mr. Williams wife. She was actually out here today p and she said that mr. Williams is, in fact, out of town. Back to you. Okay. Courtney, thank you very much. What is the main issue on art cashins mind this morning as we get back to the markets. Up next, the wall street veteran share his market words of wisdom as we countdown to the opening bell. The futures, indication is a flat open after yesterdays surge. More squawk on the street from the nyse straight ahead. Ive been doing a few things for a while that i really love tdd 18003452550 playing this and trading. Tdd 18003452550 and the better i am at them, the more i enjoy them. Tdd 18003452550 so im always looking to take them up a notch or two. Tdd 18003452550 and schwab really helps me step up my trading. 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The traders are concerned the area between 2. 95 and 3 may be a trip wire. It used to be closer to the 2. 91, but were inching up. I think were very close to it. If it hits, it will be interesting to see if it causes the bids to disappear in equity. Strange Market Action because yesterday when it looked like the u. S. Was getting support t at least internally for a strike on syria, when it looked like the fed was going to taper and John Williams reenforced that, markets didnt weaken on either on the two kinds of events that might be instead they seem to hold up okay. This morning you get the stronger jobs data and the tenyear is rallying. How do you read it all . I think what youve got to look at. Yesterday, yes, you saw things going on in the Committee Hearings and whatever. But the market actually taking a lead from gold and oil said, wait a minute, the president s out of the country. Nearby strike is highly unlikely. Secondarily those very hearings themselves said now out of respect to congress, hes got to wait until you get the whole congress convene. So it kind of delayed things. Oil went down. Treasuries went down. The flag to safety disappeared. Art, lets just say we do attack syria and we bomb them for whatever reason, for however long, does the dow drop a few hundred points . I think it might well. There is still growing concern. But why . With all do respect, why would it . Are people at home saying, hey, honey, lets not buy that car or that refrigerator because we might attack syria . I dont think so. I dont think theyre doing that but i think the other markets are looking at possibly regional spill over. I mean, were actually on the verge of the civil war in iraq as we talk. Yeah. And so things could spill over, affect the oil market, and move. Thats why youve seen these habitual flights to safety. Isnt it often the pattern that you sell off in anticipation of conflict and rally once it starts . Is it different this time . Is that reading of history incorre incorrect . No, that reading is correct. Usually whams is tht happens is look and say, once the attack is made, you get to see what the reaction is is. And usually things are relatively calm. I mean, look, israel invaded syrian airspace three or four times this year. Okay. Nobody even threw a rock. So people may be overstating what the fears are. But youve got to wait to first see it. And i think youre right. The greater fear usually is initially because what happens after doesnt live up to the fears that you have. Good to see you, art. My pleasure. It will certainly back in focus as president returns next week from the g20 meetings. The opening bell is a couple of minutes away. Get ready for another big day of trading. Plenty more to come when squawk on the street continues. [ cows moo ] [ sizzling ] more rain. [ thunder rumbles ] [ male announcer ] when the world moves. Futures move first. Learn futures from experienced pros with dedicated chats and daily live webinars. And trade with papermoney to testdrive the market. All on thinkorswim. From td ameritrade. Rchlt welcome back to watching cnbcs squawk on the street. The opening bell is set to ring here in a couple of minutes. Weve had a ton of data already to digest this morning. Weve got the strong jobless claims figures falling again to a fresh fiveyear low. Back to prerecession levels. Exactly the same as the automotive sales yesterday. Yes, if we were on street signs we would call that hopeium, my friend. Moving average lowsest of october 2007. Heres what doesnt make sense. Gallup sees it picks up. Cease were going to ask some people about this coming up later t in the program, as well. I love that most tho know th methodology on that. Heres the waiting for the opening bell at the sector map. S p 500, were going the keep an eye on this one, as well. And were off. Heres the heat map moving as we see down here at the big board automotive auto nation. Ringing the opening bell this morning. Up at the nasdaq, a Life Sciences company for female fertilefy. Back and forth across the flat line. Its going to take a couple of minutes to figure out what the trend is. When that tenyear yield getting a lot of attention this morning as it approaches the 3 mark and plenty of individual stories in focus as well. Talking already about jcpenney. Brian, you were just talking about auto sales, auto nation ringing the opening bell. 25 increase in august from the year earlier. And theres a tenyear note. I think its more the impact is more on as an indicator of sentiment for the consumer. The consumer is back spending. Thats important for the second half of the year. What it may not be is a good sign for employment. Running yes, theyre adding shifts but theyre not having the sort of Capital Investment you might hope. A lot of people are getting paid much less than they were before. Its a very mixed signal for the Automotive Industry though the headline is bullish. Youre right, simon, newer workers under some of the but nu deals are working half. Half is better than zero. Sure. We are seeing 30 shift being added. Fill lebeau did a great piece on cars. There are a number of models under 15 days of inventory. That is nearly impossible to get. Usually an Inventory Data will be 50 to 60 days of inventory. Strong numbers. If youre a car salesman, right, youre having good months, it means maybe now you can spend a little money. Youre taking your family on vacation. Its that trickle up of the economy that were starting to see. Its good news, you know . Not quite the same. The car halo, the housing halo affect factoring the boom and consumer incomes. People could borrow and take money out of their homes. Cant quite do that with cars yet. Quickly before we move on. I just want to i dont usually give a lot of advice. Dont borrow money from your home to buy a car. Thats all. Thank you, brian. Lets see, in terms of advice, were talking about blackberry this morning, the companys board saying it hopes to run a fast auction process that could result in a sale of the company by november. More about this in the journal as well. Blackberry shares up 3. 7 in the news. If you read the article, its got a little hallmarks of now a fire sale. They are now going to approach people. In other words, maybe they havent been approached themselves. Short list is getting shorter. Obviously the fact that microsoft is buying nokia potentially removes one buyer. If not it makes it much more difficult to compete against nokia because it doesnt have to break even as rapidly as it might have otherwise have done. Time is irrunning out for blackberry. The fear is that the corporate customers will walk. See last week Morgan Stanley is going to delay the upgrades because theyre concerned about the long tefity of the company . Im always slightly nervous when the bank might be part of that m and a process making those sorts of statements. You never know which side theyre going to fall on. The point is taken. A buddy of mine works for runs a firm and they value patents by the leading Merchant Bank for patent valuation in the United States. And weve had conversations about black berry. I just want to say, im not cramer. I dont recommend anything. I will say this. People are dipping and daping on blackberry shares on the buyout talks, be careful. The only value they may have is in the intellectual property. Unless you know how to value it networking and stuff like that. Youre not value that . The a tents are on that because you have ios, android. A lot of i. T. Guys are feeling that secure network used to be that blackberry was the only game in town. Now theyre not. Unless you know how to value intangible assets and intangible property, be careful on blackberry shares. Remember twoperson firm eight or nine years ago, 2006 or whatever, seven years ago, came out and said they sued blackberry and had hundreds of Million Dollar win from blackberry. Ntp, this little twoperson firm of which the founder by that time had passed away, got the rights or got payment for a lot of these patents. Just be careful. Blackberry is quite small now. Its 5 5 or billion. Its a small amount of money for a big tech company. Its sad. I was up in waterloo, ontario. At that point rim was firing on all cylinders. The people were proud to work there. I imagine its like the google campuses now. Everybody walked around with their head held high. Its tough up there. College town about an hour west of toronto. Its going to be lets not forget the people that work there. Its one reason why some people look at a white knight by one of the canadian pension Investment Companies or Something Like that, would there be a nationalistic element here as well. Yeah, because it saved nortel. Could we talk about a bigger market cap company, groupon. Upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley. So taking a look at the shares here. If you want to talk about getting mobile right, remember, this company after coming out with better earnings, holding in thereafter a tough year last year in exit of the ceo now doing a little bit better. Today at 5. 9 on the upgrade again. This year up 125 . Were trading at 10 . 90. The points target rose at Morgan Stanley. Groupon moving higher on this upgrade. Retailers are struggling. Well continue to hear from them all morning while we go Mary Thompson on the floor. Hey, kelly, as we expected, pretty much a flat open for the market. Dow is holding on to a 20point gain right now. Nasdaq is up just about eight. Were expecting low volume today again because it is a number of people are off for todays session. So these are the three things that traders are talking about. Weve been talking a bout it al morning. Most notably, the tenyear yield. That is something the traders are focusing on syria as well along with news out of the g20. The tenyear note, the yield has been climbing because of increased talks about fed tapering. Thats been pushing yields higher. Todays data certainly supports, you know, expectations. The fed could taper because of strength in the economy. Jobless claims close to a fiveyear low. Strong productivity numbers and little wage inflation. Tapering is also a topic of conversation at the g20 meeting. A number of Companies Expressing concerns about how the fed taper will impact the emerging markets which haveformed the s p 500. The bricks saying they are forming 100 billion fund to help deal with any kind of currency instability that could happen as the fed starts to withdraw this monetary stimulus. One currency that is showing weakness today is the euro dropping to a sixweek low because of dra ghi. Of course, that impacts the currency because rates are one reason you may make Interest Rates are one reason the currency may become more attractive if rates are more attractive. Euro is at a low against the dollar today. Here at home. Tomp san son saying theyre below expectations coming in at a 3 gain below estimates. A couple of them did come with with stronger than expected numbers. Those include the drugstores walgreens and riteaid. Limited brands saying they expect low single digit samestore sales for the month of september. Louisiana pacific, this company is buying canadian rival, another Canadian Lumber Company that provided access to the asian markets and the news is being well received. Its 1. 1 billion for it. And the stock is up 8 on the news. Again, the dow holding on to just about an 18point gain now. Simon, back to you. Thank you very much. Lets head uptown to the nasdaq marketsite and check in with seema on those stocks. Hi, seema. We are higher by ten points on the nasdaq on the back of that upbeat Economic Data we got out this morning. Quick check on shares of the nasdaq omx after a sixminute outage on wednesday impacted a subset of stock symbols. The issue being the sip platform, the primary reason nasdaq had that threehour halt back on august 22nd. Other stocks, pacific action. Blackberry shares, wall street journal report that blackberry is set to run a fast option process wrapped up by november and a blackberry deal will include more than one buyer. Each taking over part of the company. A mover in the biotech space, japanese drug maker otsuka to acquire astex pharmaceuticals. That stock is on the move. Gro groupon shares out performing social media. Morgan stanley upgraded to it overweight. Lastly, a look at the smart watch space after samsung and qualcomm both separately unveiled their own version of a smart watch. One of the tech investors i spoke to at the samsung event said one of the benefits of smart watches, brian, is better social etiquette. Now you dont have to be that person who looks at your phone while having dinner with your friends because your smartwatch will alert you with whatever messages or emails youre getting. Perhaps these devices can do some good for society. Brian . So youre saying staring at somebodys wrist whats better . More discrete. Hey, baby, whats going on . More discrete from taking out the phone. Its seamless. Its on your body. Im relaying what the investor told me. You might be right. But leave the phone at home for a night. Turn everything off. Talk to people. Look them in the eye. Cheers with a glass of wine. Laugh, smile, and have a real memory. Im all for it. Wow, its got everything with Brian Sullivan on the show. If youre lucky, you will be invited, simon. Wow. Sarcasm, too, you can have a trailer for your sarcasm. Thank you. Lets head to the bond pits. Rick santelli, a man who is never sarcastic. Hes always happy. At the cme group in chicago. Rick santelli, right . Am i right . Leave the phone at home for one day and actually look people in the eye and have a conversation. Im not a big phone guy, believe me. I would rather use Smoke Signals and a lot of these elect ron anything devices. I do believe dick traceys watch was a bit smaller than the samsung. I tell you what isnt small, Interest Rates theyre getting bigger by the minute. You know, its not only look that the fiveyear chart. Briefly, fiveyear was above 180. Twoyear was above 50 for a while. I mean, unbelievable. And if you open the chart up, the twos and the fives are now comping back to may of 2011. Tenyear, of course, the benchmark, lets pay close attention. You see on the intraday chart it was up around 295. 5. A whisk away from 296. Its actually hanging up closer to a high hi yield, better than some of the other maturities. But still comping back to july. 30year bond comping back to three weeks to august 31st and that counts back to july. The point of all the comps, im not a realtor but you want to watch the fiveyear. Thats really kept you exactly the position you are supposed to have which continues to be short treasuries. The proof is in the yield. Lets look at the boons overseas. Yes, they eclipsed 2 . First time since march of 2012. You can see it on the chart. Lets look at couple of oneoffs. Lets look at the dollar yen. Breached that 100 level and, of course, the euro versus the dollar, you can see draghis influence after the press conferen conference, in the end, i think the most interesting comments by draghi, we are paying very close attention to Interest Rates and how it may take away some of the glitter that were pushing with regard to low rates. Thats very key. Because whether its our central bank, their central bank, or any central bank, i dont think theyre going to brace rising yields and im not sure not embracing it is a good idea. Back to you. Thank you, sir. Lets get over to commodity pitts now. Check in on the action with jackie deangelas. Lets start at the energy complex. Crude rebounds a little bit from the losses that we saw yesterday. West texas intermediate hovering around 108 barrels a. Traders are buying yesterdays dip but they are being cautious. Theyre waiting for that inventories number. That will be out at 11 00 a. M. This morning. They are expecting a decline in u. S. Inventories. That is likely adding to some of the upside price action that were seeing today. Meantime, traders also watching tomorrows jobs report very closely. One quick hit on gold. Seeing lack of any sort of directional sentiment in gold. A little stronger this morning but it couldnt hold on. We saw more than 20 drop yesterday so its going to be interesting to see if gold can move over that 1400 mark today. Kelly, back to you. Thank you very much for that, jackie. Just to recap to get the data at 11 00 a. M. Today because of the fourday holiday. Fourday week. We wish. Wow with all good things you make me nervous, brian. In the books. Retailer is gearing up for the Holiday Shopping season. Which ones are best positioned for the months ahead . That is next. And later, a new logo for yahoo as ceo marissa mayor making the right rebranding move . Squawk on the street will be right back. [ male announcer ] the allnew 2014 lexus is. This is your move. [ male announcer ] the allnew 2014 lexus is. In a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. Retail stocks in focus again today. Several chain stores are reporting their august samestore sales. How did they fair dog during back to school season. What will Interest Rates, the job market and Everything Else mean to the retailers. Joining me now is president and ceo Retail Federation and Senior Research analyst at stern ag matthew. First to you. A lot of people are saying hier rates. Moderation of the job market is going to crush retail over the next few months. I tend to disagree. What are you hearing from your constituents about sales going forward. Thanks for having me. Nice to have you back. Listen, we dont see this ending or coming crashing down. Retailers and consumers have been driving the economy for going on three years now. The numbers were a little soft as we ended the Second Quarter. But the executives and the ceos ive talked to indicated pretty much across the board that august and back to school is looking better. Inventories tracking up a little higher as we get into the fall season. We remain, you know, fairly optimistic were going to finish the year well. Matthew, though, the one spot we talked about extensively on cnbc is the teen retailers. People using them as benchmark for consumer spending. They have done with some exceptions miserably. Do we know why . Obviously there are a lot of factors out there. And we saw just as we finished the last quarter that the numbers would indicate as outs to and home sales and Home Improvement, some other areas were picking up, families were making tough decisions about maybe limiting some of the shopping more on the discretionary side on the retail goi categories. Its obviously an enormously competitive segment and weve got Department Stores and Discount Stores fight for some of the same market. I fug figure were going to have to wait to see what the next set of numbers show us. What is the next set of numbers . If weve gotten the read on back to school, is this about the holiday . Are retailers making any major changes . Are there any major things we need to be on the lookout for, matthew . We dont do attacking of samestore sales any longer. A decade ago there were more than 100 companies that reported that way. And obviously as you although, that number is diminished. We wait for the government numbers, department of commerce numbers will come out next week. And we will put our numbers out after that for the month of august. Our july numbers were up almost half a percent. And more than 5 year over year. So we think that the numbers going into the fall will be pretty good. And the inventory numbers were pretty modest in july but the suggestions were getting from companies now is those are going to pick up in august and september going to the holiday season. Just take us down to the individual Company Level as an investor. What is stern a. G. Advising investors to do in this space . Sure. The only company we have that does report Monthly Sales is limited. The comp was fairly in line for this month. I think importantly for limited, you mentioned the teen retailers. And a lot of apparel retailers have become professional in the mall but victorias secret margins are up four months in a row and comp positively. That bodes well for them, especially as they have new product launches coming in the back half. Also like the off pricers here. Tjx and ross stores, they have been seeing comp acceleration when most people saw decelerati deceleration. For the off pricers, volatile retail environment, home run for them. Thats what theyre playing in right now. We continue to like that as well. I quickly on ross stores about a year ago today ross stores were at the same price it is now. Had a huge run, giant tumble. Came back to where it is right now. Seems to be an inflexion point. Why did it tumble last year and why do you think its not going to happen again . Well, ross stores towards the end of last year people started to get worried as comp was moderating. They believed a lot of investors were believe that they were a primary share beneficiary from jcpenneys comp decline. Their comp is now accelerating as it seems like jcpenneys comps are getting less bad. Theyre kind of telling the naysayers that thats not true. That thats not what drove the comp. I think people are gaining more confidence there. Thank you very much, matthew. Thank you very much, guys. See you soon. Thanks. Thank you. Can i just quickly to follow up on the point about jcpenney. Talking t about sephora being in the stores. And that was an mike goldman initiative before ron johnson came. In many ways it was not something that happened a last year, maybe a couple years. Anyway, just put a fperiod on i. Netflix is still red hot. Hitting a 52week high, more than dow than doubling this year. Thats up next. As we head to break, heres a look at this mornings s p losers. Be right back. If youre serious about taking your trading to a higher level, tdd 18003452550 then schwab is the place to trade. Tdd 18003452550 call 18882849410 or visit schwab. 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Tdd 18003452550 and learn how you can earn up to 300 commissionfree tdd 18003452550 online trades for six months with qualifying net deposits. Tdd 18003452550 our trading specialists are waiting to help you get started. Tdd 18003452550 so call now. Tdd 18003452550 welcome back. After 29 days of runnerup logos yahoo has released the thinner and simpler redesigned one. Youre looking at it on your screen there. The old on top, the new on bottom. Search giant hasnt undapdated logo since 2009. You have to look closely to see that one. Half our people are listening to us on the radio right now in los angeles driving to work. They have no idea what in the heck were talking about. Because were a television station. Were also on sirius xm. Cool, clean, clear. Similar to the old one. Yes. That brings us to this mornings squawk on the street. Hold on thought. After 30 days great company. Business partnership. Its a similar low ga. The new yahoo low ga go reve. Disclosure being cnbc and yahoo have a Business Alliance and share to coproduce editorial comment. What would your tag line be . I have showing on Yahoo Finance called talking numbers. Its great. Technical analysis. Kind of cool. Mine would be, no knock on yahoo but to quote the who, meet the new logo, same as old lorgo. More Economic Data on wall street to digest. Breaking news on ism services after the break. Plus, Market Reaction in just a few moments. Plus, samsungs betting big on the new galaxy gear smartwatch to become not just a cool device but a Global Fashion icon. Two of the watches have arrived here at post nine. Well be live with them next. Usua l please. Usua thank you very much. Ok guys, im back. I need a template of a template. Oh my gosh. Ive never even seen this record, ive only read about it in books. Yeah we can get some peanut. That is huge. Please dont judge the amount of Peanut Butter we are getting. 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Voted best Investment Services company. Welcome back to squawk on the street. Factory orders for the month of july were down 2. 4 not as bad as the 3 1 2 were looking for, but a big contrast from the slightly revised look last month at positive 1. 6 . If we look at ism nonmanufacturing for august, 58. 6. That is definitely a big number. Service sector is the biggest part of the u. S. Economy. How far back, you ask ill ask to go to find a bigger number . Wow, quite a ways. 58. 1 was the hi watermark in february of 2011. So i think that were looking at a comp that goes back quite a ways. Im going to have to go to a chart on this one. Listen, this is a major drop. At least half dozen years, maybe longer. I will have the final date next time im on. Suffice it to say ism nonmanufacturing was a blowout number at 58. 6. Back to you. Rick, thank you very much. Making point, of course, that does reflect employment prospects for much lanrger part of the u. S. For manufacturing data. Theyre trying for a third day of gains. Nasdaq and s p all in the green following a series of Economic Data and ahead of tomorrows employment report. Lets bring in chief market strategist, ethan harris, cohead of Global Economic rest search with merrill lynch. Good morning. Good morning. First to you, how significant is it that we started off the month with strong reports for the u. S. Manufacturing and now services, economy, and, by the way, some strength in the global pm ireports as well . I think its fairly important. It is consistent with the merging consensus that its picking up. One of the critical things so watch is not the absolute level of gross but to see where w. Where the change of growth is going to be. From that respect, i think some of the drivers of Economic Growth such as housing, cars, consumer durables, are actually going to see a little bit of a deceleration in the next couple of quarters which will also drive the change in leadership from the market perspective. Now, were seeing the tenyear obviously watching to see if it hits 3 . As a result of these stronger numbers. Ethan, is it your view thats where were headed . What is 3 mean . Well, i think its consistent with the idea that the fed is exiting. 3 is still a pretty low tenyear yield. We do think the year end will be at 3 . Near term the market might be over shooting a little bit on the upside in terms of tenyear yields. People of todays data was pretty solid. You know, there are some reasons for hesitation at the fed. But, yeah, i mean, thats the direction theyre going in the bond market. Ethan, do you think they might delay tapering as a result of syria and the other questions on capitol hill . I think we have to remember that fed officials have not told us theyre going in september. They told us theyre going later this year. September is an awkward time. Congress comes back from their wellearned siesta this morning and theyre going to do were going to have a nasty fiscal policy debate and a nasty debate around syria. We could get a military strike there. Weve also instituted the other guests mentioned, you know, you see a little bit of wobble in the Housing Market lately which is a bit disturbing since thats supposed to be a big growth sector. So its going to be a very close debate at the september meeting about whether this is the right meeting to make an historic change in policy. Ethan, if they delay tapering, lets say they delay tapering one month and possibly two, what would that mean for the market . What does that mean for us . Well, i think that given that the markets have really been very afraid of fed tapering, very strong reminder of the markets that this fedex is going to go slowly and a lot of the pricing in the markets now for the fed to end qe relatively early and to hike Interest Rates before 2015, a lot of that pricing will come out of the market and begin to kind of accept the idea that this is going to be a very slow process. Ethan, why would that pricing come out of the market when, if anything, it seems as though the message that were getting over the last couple of trading sessions is that the fed is going to have to act even more quickly here, perhaps on the rates front . I think we need to remember that the fed is looking at all the data from their july meeting to the september meeting. If you look at the data flow on that, its actually been almost perfectly balanced between strong and weak data. Weve actually gotten much weaker than expected inflation readings in many respects, for example, today, you know, it isnt the data flow is very ambiguous, certainly not this week. Weve had two solid purchasing managers reports. So i think i going to be very crucial what happens to payroll if they confirm the strength we saw in the two purchasing managers report. That will a strong message for the fed to get going. If they dont, if we get 150 or Something Like that on payrolls, i think people will quickly forget about the purchasing manager reports. Let me come back to the beginning of the interview where you suggested that you thought that there was a change in growth, there would be a deceleration, a slowing down of growth in housing and autos and, therefore, what wins in the stock market would change. If they are not going to be winners in your view in the second half of the year, what will winners . Well, i think theres going to be a broad range but i do think the leadership should shift incrementally to technology, perhaps financials could drive some of the growth. Thats partly driven by their change in capital use and assumption that the loan growth from Small Businesses and select consumers will continue to be robust. And also i think health care has more room to run into the second half of the year. When you say tech, what part of tech . I think cyclical tech will probably be the strongest. Within that, its the networking communication equipment and to a lesser extent, semiconductors. All right. Weve had very Strong Performance of what i call dream stocks. They still probably have more room to run. Those that tie to cloud, mobile computing. Dream, dream on maybe. Thanks very much. Ethan harris, as well. Thank you guys. As youve seen within the last hour president obama arriving at the g20 meeting in russia. Lets go live there with cnbcs Steve Frederick for the latest. Steve, over to you. Thanks very much. All i hear from all the subscribes around me around the reporters is that overshadowing of this g20 meeting which is supposed to be about economics and the whole host of issues such as tax and stability in the Banking Sector and emerging market flows, all i hear is overshadowed by syria. Thats the question ive been asking for greater in the good ive been speaking to him from the oecd director general, president putins own sharper, his representative here at the g20 throughout this whole year long presidency. A woman i met in february from a man and to a woman, whole range of issues will go on. Yes, there is collearly a big problem with mr. Putin and mr. Obama but that will not affect every other talk we have in our progress on a whole host of issues which are very, very important to the Global Economy and this very tenuous stage. And then i just had a chat off the record with one european delegate who said to me, hes really concerned about is an crisis of the g20. A crisis, this is important because, simon, you and i were young men when the g20 showed great coordination back in 2009 in london and in pittsburgh and obama and gordon brown. Were talking about a real collaborative spirit for the g20 in putting the world out of the crisis. Since then in toronto, its all been piece mill as well. I think there is grave concern from some. Behind the scenes that actually syria, although its not on the formal agenda, it could be just the tip of the iceberg on concerns that actually the g20 is fragmented and doesnt have that coordination it needs to become an effective global pbod. Steve, maybe theyll all stay at home and save money. The smartwatch wars have officially begun with contenders from both samsung and qualcomm entering the fray in the last 24 hours. But are they a sustainable tech accessory, in other words, will you buy them or are they a passing fad . A couple of the new Samsung Watches and the qualcomm watches onset. Squawk on the street will be right back. Woman everyone in the nicu all the nurses wanted to watch him when he was there 118 days. Everything that you thought was important to you changes in light of having a child that needs you every moment. I wouldnt trade him for the world. Who matters most to you says the most about you. At massmutual were owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. If youre caring for a child with special needs, our innovative special care Program Offers strategies that can help. Welcome back. The war is between samsung and not apple but, in fact, qualcomm. John has more on this. Good morning, jon. Good morning, kelly. I wall this a smartwatch watch. This is from qualcomm. I talked to ceo jed. Hes making it clear hes not trying to war with samsung saying weve been through those sorts of battles already. He really wants to show off their Mirasol Technology for this screen roughly getting five days of battery life versus one day for the Samsung Watch you have back there. Thats the key technology. Look at this apple chart. We know that theyve been struggling. Part of the issue here a smartphone penetration is over 50 in the top 15 markets including the u. S. And, okay, so whats in these watches. It looks like theyre looking to retail for around 300. Neither company has been specific about that. A whole range of battery life from one to five days and they rely on smartphones for their wireless connections. Now, youve got the samsung gear over there. Both these watch rest niche because that gear neetsds to connect to the galaxy note 3 or the new tablet. They need to roll out and make the software more available. It also has to connect to a smartphone. Listen to what paul jacobs had to say about what the goal is for samsung, quaug qualcomm, and others in releasing these types of devices. Listen. I think the highlevel operating system guys want to do is show much like what were doing with talk, show the way that things can be done. And he also wanted to make with that the point that thats what microsoft is trying to do with nokia, lead the way with these devices and show what can be done. Its kind of reminiscent of the ipod market. A little more than ten years ago, the way this is shaping up, kelly. Thats right. Jon, its incredible to watch the launch of this new generation of products. Thank you very much, sir. In fact, weve got some of the new products here onset. Having a bit of a look at lets see if i can hold it up the right way. Is it calling . Okay. All right. The watch is ringing. Dont answer that. You dont know who that is. 972. Where is the 972 area code . Is that you . Do i talk . Do i talk . Youre calling us. Should we answer . Yes. The samsung folks are here. Theyrele aing us. It has a bituiltin speaker. It also has a camera. I tried to press the green. Its upsidedown. Come to me. This is very cool here. First off, the fact that the watch is biggest enough to fit is a nice touch. Its got the old school thing going on here where you can have this an lock loalog look if you. There you go. Turn it back on. Watch this. Im going to do this. This is called adlibbing. Some closer. Okay. So you can do the Old School Style there. Its kind of cool. Lovely. Then you scroll through notifications. Youve got voice memos. Can they call that . S voice and gallery. This is my favorite, right . Its a parrot, right . I love mar rots. Theyre delicious. So there you go. Youve got kaul kinds of stuff. It answers phone calls. A woman here with leaves in her hair. Im not sure what that is. What happens when the phone rings. This is what i was wondering about as well. You can see the call pop up and i dont know if we can have someone dial it again. Its a good looking watch. I was trying to pull a button. Theres just the one button on the side to turn it off. Youve got to use it with this. They come side by side. You cant have one without the other. I answer the phone. Its just telling you that someone is calling . Yes. I think you can answer from there. There are so many bloggers weeping right now in the tech world because i dont know how to use it. Are you disa. Wed the functionality . No. Im looking through the apps. Theyve got a weather app, tripit, which is an app i use all the time on here. Kind of cool. Check this out. Easier to see right here. Can we get on the camera. That is actually on nobody wants to see my head. There we go. There you go. You can see how the apps look. Thats pretty cool. Its a good looking watch. You dont feel especially some people said it was bulky. Do you think it will become the new fashion icon around the world as the head of samsung said . I wouldnt be surprised. Really . I really wouldnt. Guys, sorry to jump in here. Nationwide protests at walmart. Courtney reagan outside of a walmart or t at least in manhattan near sprom teome prot im actually standing outside a Christopher Williams office. Hes the ceo of Williams Capital Management. Also a walmart board member. You can see here i have about 40 protesters gathered. Part of the group that they call themselves our walmart. It is supported by the ufcw. A handful of walmart workers, most of them Community Activists and other supporter. Basically going to deliver or hope to deliver a petition to mr. Williams with 200,000 signatures demanding better worker rights. Thats better pay. Lower health care costs. More hours and just general better treatment at walmart. We did speak to some of the associates that are currently employed with walmart. They say they are willing to get arrested if indeed it does come to that. They are hope that mr. Williams will come down and speak to them. I got to tell you i spoke to his wife earlier today. She walked in the building and said, hes out of town. Back to you guys. Okay. Courtney, thank you very much for that. Courtney reagan keeping an eye on that protest today around the country for people involved with walmart. Lets return now to the smartwatch wars and bring in venture capitalist george zachary. Hes a partner at charles who has invested in the smartwatch company, if you remember that. Joining us, lance, editor and chief who also has his hands on the new Samsung Galaxy gear. Lance, what did you make of it . What do you make of it . So i think its kind of exciting. Wearable technology is the future. Its always exciting to see new products in this space. This is definitely stateoftheart for smartwatches. Heres the thing about smartwatches. Its not a new concept. Theyve been trying to do this for years. Right . Theyve been trying to get people excited about this. And, you know, theres usually stumbling blocks. One of the stumbling blocks might be that it has to be connected to your phone all the time. Reality is everybody has a phone in their pocket. They dont always want to take it out. So now you have a phone, a watch, with enough smarts and intelligence to keep you connected to that device all the time. But also provide some extra value like a camera, like the ability to speak to it. So i think that although there are things they dont like like low prices, i think its an exciting entrant. George, you were obviously one of the first entries in this market. Qualcomm has also launched within the last 24 hours. We await some sort of announcement later from apple. I mean, do you think that this category is going to catch on around the world, particularly if its not subdiseassidized by phone companies . I do think its going to catch around the world. The original orders we have from pebble were amazing. We had 11 million on kick starter. Thats without any marketing. And right now the company has approximately 270,000 preorders with very, very little marketing. I see more and more people Walking Around San Francisco wearing these watches. I think the most important thing about it is people are using them for communications and messaging. Thats something i Pay Attention to. I was the original investor in twitter. So i know how important it is for people to feel connected to one another. I think pebbles is an extension of that and i think smartwatches in general will be an extension of that. John, are you seeing a lot of these watches as well . Can we talk about the businesses involved here . Is qualcomm doing this because they want to make sure theyve got, you know, theyve got skin in the game . Ill just say there are a few watches go ahead, john. There are a few watches out there. A couple of clear key things ribt n right now. We dont know yet what the key technologies are going to be in these watches. Qualcomm is putting forth this watch of theirs, the talk, because they want mirasol, the Screen Technology, to be a key technology. Think back at ipod. It was the small size hard drive that was key for that device as well as the lightweight operating system and the connection to itunes. Were just starting to see those things together. I tweeted yesterday that days of battery life with absolutely table stakes for watches in my opinion. If you dont have day, multiple days, doa, tony fidel, favorited that fweetweet. Hes the father of ipod. I think the opinions are lining up on what they have to have. As far as the battle royal between samsung and apple, is it fair to say this is much more important to samsung, which is why theyve come out first and rushed it to market, because they are trying to build a hardware eco system that can mirror what aipple has achieved . I dont think they have the same sort of tension about when to lease. I think that they go fast and they go hard and they go when they think the timing is right. Yeah, getting this out before apple is probably a good thing. We dont think apple is delivering an iwatch next week and its not clear exactly when they are because apple wont do it until theyre ready. One of the things about the Screen Technology we have lcd technology, you know, super Analog Technology which is probably the most battery, take the most battery power. Pebble and the marisol which is color. So its kind of an interesting thing to watch, too, the key with the smartwatch is being able to wear it for a long time and not always have to worry about charging. George, its paramount with im going to hold it up again. The smartwatch and samsung phone. Theyre paired together. We assume apple might do the same thing. Who knows what microsoft may do. Is it good that everybody is kind of going into their corners . Do you like the idea of the pairing up or is it better simply to have an open eco system where i can say use a Samsung Smartwatch with a nokia phone, whatever it might be . I think its i think its a mistake for yes, i think its a mistake for consumers to go to that route. People want a watch thats going to be independent of what kind of operating system or what kind of phone. So i think what were doing at pebble is were specifically trying to get the largest amount of people using our devices so were going after all operating systems, all phones, all devices, from tablets to phones to anything that can use blue tooth. And thats what i think is going to be important. Nobody wants to have no one wants to be told they have to wear a certain necklace with a certain watch or a certain pair of pants. And i think that the reality here is that im sure samsung will figure it out in short order that not only the they want to connect up to the galaxy s3 and 4 and all that, they want to connect to the iphone. If they think its attractive, they want to use it with whatever they want to use it with. I guess the point is if you lance, if you can make the best looking one you can corner the market for your eco system, why share. You know, because i think that this is a fashion. This is sort of a fashion accessory. I just think its a different mindset. Interesting. Its not just technology. Guys, were out of time. We have to leave it there. This is fascinating. George . Yes. Okay. Lets leave it there. George zachary, joining us. Thank you as well, john, for joining us there. I tell you quickly where i think it could be a win. I use an app called run keeper on the iphone, jag with the phone. This has run keeper on it. Keep the iphone in a pouch. Wont drop it. Lets drops. 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[ telephone ringing ] now a waiting room is just a room. [ static warbles ] used maps on our smartphones to navigate streets but how about mapping the indoor of a giant box store . Aisle 411 uses map technology to help people find what theyre looking for inside of major chain stores. Joining us now is nathan petty. I dont know where you worked two weeks a, go nathan, i was at a big box store. Couldnt find what i wanted so i left. Your da the shta shows one out y five customers does the same thing. I would imagine retailers are slathering over your product. What can it do for sales . Reporter great point you make. Redale etailers are finding the losing up to 20 of sales because of walkouts. Its people like you and me who cant find an associate to get help. Cant find the products they came to buy and they leave empty handed. When you look at the numbers, its a very compelling opportunity for retailers to bridge the gap. Mobile and instore and all the investments theyve made in their great store infrastructure. Does it because were a stock show, right, we care about stocks of these retailers. Does it cost them anything . Is it free to consumers . What kind of data do you have to back up that it helps sales. Sure, so retailers actually license the aisle 411 platform. That is our Business Model as of today. We also see a huge opportunity to influence sales of shoppers who are in the store who may be reminded of offers or things that they may not remember they needed. And when we can do that were lifting sales and enhance the customer experience. When youre building a brand for a retailer and that experience in the store, that means everything to them. Sure. Nathan, what is it . What do i what do i see on my smartphone . What does it show me . What does your app show me . Sure. Were able to actually take a map of the store and youre able to pull out your phone, search for any product in that store and we map down to the section of an aisle where that item is located. We can take your shopping list. We can route you through the most efficient path through the store. And ultimately time is money for the shopper today so were saving you valuable time every time you go to the store. Nathan, in all the forever thing to work fine and for it to be an advantage, information has got to be correct. Can the app actually tell where things are in the store or where they should be according to the plan . In other words, whats the potential for chaos if things arent in the right place when the plan was drawn up who knows when . The great thing is retailers over the last five or ten years have made significant investments in what they call Space Planning tools. Its how they merchandise their items. What were finding is theres a very high degree of accuracy. Typically 90 to 95 accurate in terms of where we can get you and were able to take feedback with the shopper. The shopper can give us information if they find something moved or changed. True it. Really helps the opportunity. Could be like ways for inside stores. N nathan, thanks very much. Fascinating company and one that reflects in the company generally for aisle 411. Thanks. Got some breaking news. Natural gas inventories. Kelly, the department of energys weekly storage report on natural gas inventories just coming ought right now. The number was 58 billion cubic feet. That was a little bit above expectations. Plaks was forecasting 53 to 57. But still it was lower than what we saw last week. An injection of 67 billion cubic feet. A couple of things to watch for. Traders telling me they turned negative. We are looking at some cooler temperatures than expected. So we do think that we can work through some of this inventory. That is one issued shoou to lsu. Look at the production levels that would provide a resistance in terms of the pricing. Addison armstrong of Tradition Energy says were at the near record production levels and youre going to see pricing. It makes sense right now this number is turning the market negative. Again, let me just repeat for you. 58 billion cubic feet is the number. Back to you. Thank you very much, jackie. Now its official. Yahoo has a new logo. Can the new logo help rehavent the brand or is Marissa Mayer putting the same product in a shiny new box . Clients are always learning more to make their money do more. ann to help me plan my next move, i take scottrades free, inbranch seminars. Plus, their live webinars. I use daily market commentary to improve my strategy. And my local scottrade Office Guides my learning every step of the way. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer scottrade. Ranked highest in Customer Loyalty for brokerage and Investment Companies. Welcome back. Marissa mayer trying to change yahoo now one letter at a time. After months of redesign and measuring and tilting those letters the company is finally out with the new logo. He took to her tumblr to say she rolled up her sleeves saying she was proud of the new design. Cnbc and yahoo have a Business Alliance to share and editorial content. For more now, bill harris, former ceo of pay pal and intuit. Bill, good morning. Well. Bill is a very brightly colored fellow today. Extremely shrill voice. We will try to get bill back as soon as we can to ask him for his thought thoons logo. They call that, by the way, an epic fail in television. Going to bars and tone, as that is known in as you noticed yahoo stock as more than i dont want to say more than doubled. Ivei double in 12 month . Yes. The question for bill if we get them back is, operationally, different. New logo is similar to the old logo. Maybe adding a whisker to the Carolina Panthers look, right . What operationally are they doing better . The stock has gun better. Its actually are the page views up, ad rate up . We dont know. Remember, this just happening the other day when we found out that yahoo s services were attracting more web traffic than googles first for the time in several years. Bill, apologies for that. What are your initial thoughts, reaction to the logo redesign, what do you think about it . Well, i think this. Business week said that yahoo is playing with dynamite in order to mess with their logo. I disagree. First of all, logos are januarienjanuary generally more important to companies and not competitors. For Internet Companies its not the logo but the main name that real will counts. So i dont think its a big risk. I think, however, it is an opportunity for yahoo and marissa to highlight the things that are going on at the company. I mean, its not so long ago, bill, that ceos want you to show that theyre changing a company would move it into fresh headquarters. I guess in a sense, in an online world, the logo is far more important nowadays. Well, i think the logo is is not the driver. Its but its an opportunity to signal things. And so when you really think about what marissa is doing, shes remaking the company in a very rapid way, recuting new employees. Acquiring a number of significant new companies. And essentially taking the entire company and trying to move it into the mobile channels. In that context, a logo is not a big deal and not highly new uniform is nice. Its never improved a teams win and loss record. Ever. Thats true. New Orleans Pelicans is probably the same as the new orleans hornets. I agree with that completely. The logo is not going to change the business. I think the logo is a nice playful way to highlight in a superficial but visible way the change going on in the company itself. Whimsical is how i think she described it in her note. But, bill, what is interesting is the way in which marissa has been able to get a great surge in the stock price but a fantastic Public Perception on virtually everything she does. In complete contrast, for example, for what is happening at microsoft. Marissa mayer can basically do no wrong. Then you read an ad week today that the chief operating officer could actually be kicked out near term because the ad sales arent actually delivering. That is a far bigger issue, isnt it . Absolutely. You know, theyve got they have not hit the kinds of wins they want on the advertising side, and you know, many of the things that the new yahoo is attempting to do have not yet born fruit. Were going to have to give her time and see what kind of successes they have. But in terms of making moves to change the company and redirect the company, i think youve got to give her high marks. All right. High marks, at least from bill this morning, bill harris. And investors who the stock has doubled. Thank you for your time. Not this morning. Breaking news on jcpenney with Courtney Reagan. Hi, thanks, simon. We are standing outside one of the walmart protests in new york city. We did just have the first protester arrested. But as you mentioned, we do have some break news on jcpenney. Weve been talking about the New York Post report that jcpenney decided to drop the Martha Stewart products before the judge has released the earnings. Jcpenney tells us they have no comment on the post story but they are awaiting the judges ruling. So thats at least what the company is telling us. We have also reached out to Martha Stewart omni living media. We will let you know if they get back to us. In the meantime, well monitor whats going on here with the walmart protests. Back to you. Thank you. Going retail. The Auto Industry shifting into high gear in august with this seeing the best Sales Numbers since before the financial crisis. Which models made it to the front of the pack . More on that after this break. Make it happen with the allnew fidelity active trader pro. Its one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Get 200 free trades when you start using active trader pro today. You know throughout history, folks have suffered from frequent heartburn. But getting heartburn and then treating day after day is a thing of the past. Block the acid with prilosec otc, and dont get heartburn in the first place. [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. Before Global Opportunities were part of their Investment Strategy. Before they funded scholarships to the schools that gave them scholarships. Before they planned for their parents future needs and their sons future. They chose a partner to help manage their wealth, one whose insights, solutions and approach have been relied on for over 200 years. Thats the value of trusted connections. Thats u. S. Trust. Okay, if youre just joining us on the west coast, good news for you. Auto sales soaring in augusto levels not seen since before the financial crisis. The hottest segment of all actually involves the luxury rides. Phil lebeau live in chicago with more on whats selling. Really all of the Luxury Brands enjoyed a big bump in the month of august. Whats driving it, a combination of factors. One, youre seeing more marketing. More on the incentive spin by the luxury automakers. Not a ton but enough to juice the market and bringing people into the showrooms. Luxury auto sales up 31. 5 last month. Auto luxury car sales just the cars segment almost double the industry car sales. Lux i did name plates. Bmw leading the way. 45 gain. Cadillac ats is red hot right now. Talk more about that in a bit. This you see lexus, audi. H hmercedes is trailing the pack. The nts is a perfect example of the auto luxury markets targeting those people between 29 and 40th,000. And a lot of people who in the past might have bought a midsize standard sedan are saying im going to go luxury instead. Thats why you see the entry level segment up 28 in the month of august. Look at this. When you compare gm and ford versus daimler, they traded in tandem earlier a year ago, that changed over the last six months. Much better performance for investors in gm and ford. We are just starting to see that renewed interest in that entry level segment for the luxury automakers. They know theyre in the sweet spot of the market. Theyre going to be push that even harder for the remainder of this year. Phil lebeau, another great story in auto sales. Thank you very much. Whats now get a quick market, sheila . Brian, taking a hit this morning is conn. Down after a disappointing retailer report. You can get just about everything there. Company reported earnings of 52 cents a share missing wall street expectations of 60 cents a share. Sales at the retailer were fine. August samestore sales were up more than 30 . So the big reason for this miss was actually the credit card operation. They had a big jump in delinquent customers which the company says its now taking corrective actions against. But in terms of this quarter investors selling that stock. Kelly . Thats irch credible. Certainly a space to watch as ge looks to divest t. Its own portfolio. Welcome to the family, sheila. And welcome. Still ahead, video game stocks seeing big gains in the last couple of months. Yes, video game stocks. They were left for dead earlier. Find out if the names now can take it to the next level. Squawk on the street is back in two. T your trading to a higher level, tdd 18003452550 then schwab is the place to trade. Tdd 18003452550 call 18882849410 or visit schwab. 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Tdd 18003452550 and learn how you can earn up to 300 commissionfree tdd 18003452550 online trades for six months with qualifying net deposits. Tdd 18003452550 our trading specialists are waiting to help you get started. Tdd 18003452550 so call now. Tdd 18003452550 real solid data today. Lets get over to the cme in chicago and Rick Santelli. Rick . Thanks, simon. You know, having daughters, aks cesssories, theyre a big part of their life. And things like, you know, coach purses or Louis Vuitton, its hard sometimes to tell the real from the fake. Just almost impossible. Think about fur. So many faux furs out there. Well, when you rub on that collar on that jacket, its under 60 bucks, youre pretty sure its not real. What about Government Data . Is Government Data real . You know, were going to have mark grant on the show later and he gave me the idea for this piece. He brought up a point in one of his latest musings that theres so many more people around the globe and specifically in the u. S. That are questioning data. Not because they believe theres some conspiracy, just, hey, your know, we have technology now. We have levels of accuracy that Technology Allows us where you can really put a fine point on this pencil, but lets concentrate since today we had adp which wasnt bad. We had Service Sector of the economy growing on nonmanufacturing that was great. The best since december of 05 because, of course, we have tomorrows employment report. Lets look at a couple issues here. Biggest two issues i see that are really easy to have understand are both very much the same, participate rate of the labor force and employment to population ratio. These two metrics are hovering at basically three decade lows and they may mean the difference between the advertised rate of 7. 4 of unemployment to actually something closer to 11. 4 . But it isnt reflected in the data, and many think its just a clever way to make the numbers look a little better than they are, but none of that matters because at the end of the day either youre Louis Vuitton is real or it isnt. Either the fur on your collar is real or it isnt. Because in the end the 4 spread between these two numbers represents millions of people. So lets think. Gdp is a number that completely seems to be out of vogue, especially by a certain part of the political class, because it just isnt responding in a way everybody would like to see. But this 4 difference, as i said, millions of people. What are these millions of people not doing . Theyre not working. Theyre most likely collecting more entitlements and may be on welfare. Theyre definitely not making big purchases. So in the end its the feel of the economy using common sense that is going to call out the accuracy of numbers altogether. The economy isnt humming along, and it isnt necessarily about data. If you want some common sense, use your senses. What you smell, see, and touch in the economy is real as well. Simon, kelly, back to you. Thank you, rick. It is kickoff time for football season, and if you are looking to go for a game or two or three or four, its going to cost you a pretty penny. Find out which team has the most expensive ticket. I have a feeling i know. I havent seen the story because i dont read ahead or anything. I think i know. Well guess. Put it in an envelope. The answer coming up after the break. [ male announcer ] some things are designed to draw crowds. Others are designed to leave them behind. The allnew 2014 lexus is. Its your move. The allnew 2014 lexus is. announcer at scottrade, our cexactly how they want. T with scottrades online banking, i get one view of my bank and brokerage accounts with one login. To easily move my money when i need to. Plus, when i call my local scottrade office, i can talk to someone who knows how i trade. Because i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer scottrade. Awarded fivestars from smartmoney magazine. Amelia. Neil and buzz for teaching us that you cant create the future. By clinging to the past. And with that youre history. Instead of looking behind. Delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions. In everything from the best experiences below. To the finest comforts above. Were not simply saluting history. Were making it. The nfl season kicks off tonight. If you are planning on going to an nfl game this season, you better be ready to pay up. Dominic chu is breaking down the most expensive teams and games in the league. Dominic, who are they . Now that were so close to kickoff, we thought it might be fun to check out how much it will cost you if you want to watch a game in person. The folks over at ticket aggregator crunched all these numbers, and this is how the secondary market for tickets is currently shaping up and the results may surprise you. On average the team with the most expensive tickets this season, the Chicago Bears of all teams. Watch those monsters of the midway in person will cost you about 443 per game. Meanwhile, on the flip side, youll have to head to the Sunshine State for the cheapest tickets. The lowest average ticket price comes via the jacksonville jaguars. About 102 per ticket there. As for the team thats produced the highest yearoveryear increase in prices between last year and this one, that goes to the supper bowl runner up San Francisco 49ers, my hometown team. Prices have gone up 86 to 233 bucks. Now, the team thats produced the biggest yearoveryear decline, the Tennessee Titans down about 26 to 117 per ticket. And if youre looking for the hottest, most expensive game so far in the secondary market, the list of the top five are interesting. Number five, the november 24th game between the broncos and the patriots. Number four is the october 10th giants and bears matchup. Meanwhile, the number three spot goes to the november 3rd steelers versus patriots game. And number two, the runner up, the september 15th game right here between the broncos and the giants. And the number one, guys, most expensive ticket so far, the september 15th game where my 49ers will travel to seattle to take on the seahawks. So, brian, guys, this is a lot of money to be paying for all these nfl tickets. It certainly is, although again surprised at some of the names on top, dom. Its crazy. Seattle is an amazing stadium, they never lose at home, its the loudest place to be. 49ers are going to be good. I think seattle will win the super bowl this year. Im making the prediction. Nbc sports does a great job at football. And is not rained off due to bad weather. Its in newark, right . Its football. Not your kind of football where a Little Feather on the field causes somebody to trip. Well see. Oh, please. Well see. Lets get to our squawk on the tweet. Yahoo has finally released its thinner and simpler redesign. They hasnt updated their logo in four years. This morning squawk on the tweet question was after 30 days given that the new logo is finally revealed, help the company come up with a tag line to accompany it. Yahoo logo, if you can tell the difference, it makes all the difference. Nice. Tim, subtlety is our new logo. And greg tweets, not seen the new yahoo logo . Just google it. Thats harsh. Im going to take my leave here so its all yours. Street signs 2 00 eastern, 11 00 pacific. Were going to do a heaping helping of hopium. Were going to recap a lot of the good news stuff. Were going to take a victory lap. Its not a victory lap. Its a good news things. Theres a lot of bad news so were going to do some good news stuff. Plus an around the world jet trip that will blow your mind. Cant wait. Thank you so much. See you later. If youre just joining us, here is what you might have missed on the program this morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Here is whats happened so far. Adp private sector payrolls were up 176,000 in august. The zigs and zags. It doesnt move in a straight but its a hell of an economy, the best in the world. Absolutely. This should be happening and it probably should have happened faster. Initial jobless claims dropped 9,000 from a revise 332,000 to 323,000. People need to be in here looking at pullbacks as opportunities. They need to be buying stocks in a consumer discretionary, Something Like Home Improvement, retail, look at technology, communications equipment. Yield on the tenyear 13 months ago was 1. 40 . Today its 2. 92 . The we cequity market may not b down as much as they think. People in the market know something is coming. This is not a surprise. I just believe that americans are smart enough to understand that 4. 5 on a mortgage is still a darn good rate. But im not going to rip my shirt off and run through the lower streets of manhattan when we hit 3 on the tenyear. Its relativity. And were off. I dont think its a big risk. I think, however, it is an opportunity for yahoo and marissa to highlight the things that are going on at the company. Good morning. We begin this hour with breaking news i believe on the oil front. Lets get to Jackie Deangelis at the nymex. Were watching the eia weekly status report. In terms of crude inventories, were looking at a draw of 1. 8 million barrels. This was slightly less than expectations. Traders were looking for the 2 to 2. 5 million barrel range. Were watching the prices. They have come off just a little bit. 107. 107. 55, but traders telling me that while this number is usually really important, it usually comes out on wednesday, it was pushed this week, theyre not really eyeing this so closely this week because right now everything thats factored into this oil price is really what were seeing in the middle east. Its that geopolitical risk and the uncertainty surrounding syria. Anthony grisanti tells me given the inventory numbers the way they are, he expects crude should be trading around 102 a barrel if it werent for the middle east. Back to you. Thank you very much, jackie. If youre just joining us at home, good morning. Welcome to post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange. Lets have a quick check on the overall markets. Fairly flat across the board. Weve had some good data both on the survey and also on the weekly jobless, down a prefinancial crisis low. But we have not been able to make any headway. Financials are slightly higher. Groupon is spiking today after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock to overweight citing the companys gains in this country. And halliburton trading at levels not seen since august 2011. Again, as you can see, up 1. 7 , kelly. Lots of focus on the labor market this morning as the ad p private sector payroll report showed a moderate pace of hiring. 176,000 jobs for the month of august. What does it mean for tomorrows big jobs report . Lets bring in ward mccarthy and kevin cummins. Good morning to you both. Good morning. Ward, just want to start with you. We got the adp report while at the same time learning jobless claims fell to a low. Does that mean that expectations for tomorrows report are pretty high that its going to be a strong one . Well, expectations are that it will be pretty much a trend number. In my case were looking for an increase of 185,000 total payrolls, 180,000 for the private sector and another dip in the Unemployment Rate to 7. 3 . So the labor market keeps grinding away, but we still have a long way to go before well be normal. We have to generate another 1. 5 million private sector payroll jobs before we replace all the jobs that we lost, and, of course, another indication that theres a lot of surplus labor sloshing around is the fact that average Hourly Earnings have pretty much been locked at an increase of about 2 on a yearoveryear basis for four years now. Kevin, thats what a lot of people will say when we talk about the stronger labor market data and what the fed might do in response here. They take a bit of a look at a line from last night, which is why hurry to the exits now . Why not keep that accommodation in place so we make sure were not creating a structural longterm unEmployment Situation. Even if the fed does taper at the september meeting, which we think if we get the kind of consensus number on tomorrows jobs report pretty much will cement the deal in our view, youre still going to remain extremely accommodative from a monitor policy standpoint. You know, theyre talking about maybe even or have hinted that they could even lower their threshold on the Unemployment Rate signaling that they wouldnt even raise the funds rate until further out into 2015. So, you know, even if they did begin to taper and it seems like theyre likely going to do that if we get a strong report, then i think, you know, its just a change of tools going from a huge Balance Sheet and still a very large Balance Sheet even if you taper it back, you know, 10 or 15 billion at the given current pace. And you know, ward, that will be what we learn over time, that once we have forgotten about tapering and forgotten about qe, these ultra low Interest Rates are going to stay. I think even now the market is suggesting until the end of 2014 even if they dont change their targets and change the goalposts. Ward, what does it mean, once we get past tapering, if you have super low Interest Rates for a long period of time . Certainly as far as the fed is concerned if not in various other parts of the market. What does that mean for investors . Well, it means that in addition to the relatively low Interest Rates, all of the liquidity that the fed has pumped into the system through qe is still going to be there. So the environment will still be highly accommodative. So from an investors point of view, i think its going to be an environment that still is conducive to improving asset prices, especially in the Housing Market and the equity market as well. But, kevin, is it not true that, in fact, the market has already done the feds tightening for it . If you look at the move in the tenyear and even on the shorter end, the jump in the fiveyear and twoyear that weve had here . Yeah, and i think thats been pretty suggestive of the fomc minutes for quite some time that even if they dial back, theyre still very accommodative and we have seen a back up in rates that started basically in the beginning of may. Thats a sign that the economy is improving, and thats healthy that rates are rising a little bit since early may. Mortgage rates have backed up, and thats a sign that things are improving and, you know, peoples expectations are that h2 this year will be much better than the first half and into 2014, growth is likely to be somewhere around 3 which obviously is much improvement from last years pace. Kevin, ward, thank you. This morning were watching the market try to digest as the tenyear heads to that 3 line. Simon . Thank you, guys. Protests against walmart taking place across the country this morning. Courtney reagan is at one of those sites here in new york. Courtney . Thats right, simon. About an hour ago or so 40 protesters began to show up at this office building. Its the office of Christopher Williams, a walmart board member and ceo of the Williams Capital Management group. These protesters are part of a group called our walmart. Some of them are walmart employees or former employees. About four we spoke to. The rest are supporters, Community Activists, clergy members, and others that are also just fighting for this cause. Now, we spoke to a couple of these walmart employees. The first is a former employee. He says he was fired for speaking out against walmart. The second a Current Walmart employee. Lets listen to hear what they had to say. When i started at walmart, they hyped it up to be like the best company to work for, and over time it fell to pieces sgroon. I feel very passionately about the way that walmart treats their associates is wrong. And, in fact, they were both arrested along with one other former walmart employee for blocking the entrance when they tried to take a petition with 200,000 signatures up to mr. Willia williams. When they werent granted access, they sat down and blocked the door. They were arrested. Walmart says they will continue to serve the customers in over 4,600 locations, a handful of union orchestrated media events and activists do not represent the views of walwalmarts 1. 3 million associates. Thank you. Despite worries since the s p hit a twomonth low back in june, some emerging markets are now actually outperforming the u. S. So what does this mean for Investment Strategy . First, Rick Santelli keeping an eye on europe today. Rick . Absolutely. Were going to stick with our theme today, real or memorex . Faux or the real mccoy. When it comes to whether its data in the u. S. Or bailouts for greece, maybe were not getting the whole story. Greece may need another bailout, but the lnts aamounts are in qu. Is it because of the election on september 22nd. Mark grant has an opinion, and trust me, he does his homework. You will want to tune in to see what he has to say about the u. S. And europe ten minutes from now. You know throughout history, folks have suffered from frequent heartburn. But getting heartburn and then treating day after day is a thing of the past. Block the acid with prilosec otc, and dont get heartburn in the first place. [ male announcer ] one pill each morning. 24 hours. Zero heartburn. Indias market rebounding overnight in the wake of the country getting a new Central Bank Governor. Emerging markets have been changing quickly, so is the risk worth the reward for the investor . Were joined by the senior Portfolio Manager for plaquerocplaquerocblackrock. I appreciate weve learned to slice it up more carefully, what is winning . The overall view is stay calm. This is really not unheard of in emerging markets. We have been here before. The levels of volatility were seeing are nothing new. What is new is the more discerning view investors are having to emerging markets. I think theyre starting to show some divergence in emerging markets treating the region differently whereas before it was a wide blanket approach to all kuntsz countries in the reg. Theres pockets of opportunity, but i have to say that for the next few weeks, maybe few months, its going to remain choppy. So would you suggest people should underweight your mutual fund then . No. Because our approach is one that i would like to think actually takes opportunity with the longterm view that its necessary to capitalize on this and also it takes advantage of the fact we go one level deeper. Some of the great buy opportunities are in place like copper airlines, regional plays, or you can actually find great value in places like turkey. Theres Turkish Airlines that are great opportunities. So, i mean, what is the context here . If youre stock picking, and ipo i have no doubt you can find some great stocks but between me and the stocks are currency pairs, the economic outlook, what the fed might do, what the new Central Bank Governor locally might do. Theres so many variable factors, isnt it easier to just invest in the United States . Thats a fair point but it doesnt mean people should discard emerging markets. The diversification benefits continue to be there. Fuf a longer view of why you want to be there, theres definitely the time to evaluate. Yes, currencies have an impact but its also an but arent you currency hedged in the mutual fund. Yes. People who are looking at the headline emerging market gains have to remember if youre buying the sensex and not taking into account that the rupee has declined in value, net net youre coming out behind. So for each holding that you have, is that offset . The way we analyze holdings before was also net of currency effects. We tend to look at each firm based under its own merits on a dollar or hedge basis. Its really not something that effects us. A lot of currencies will rebound. We have the g20. Coming into that there were warnings from some of the emerging markets about what the fed was doing and for them to consider the impact of tapering and on the other side brazil is saying hurry up and get the whole thing done. When the fed tapers, what will emerging markets do . Thats an excellent point. When the fed tapers, theyre going to be affected. So theres more downside. Except there could be more downside except that theres also a lot of measure that is havent been activated yet. Nobody has really used in the past few months or weeks the flexible credit line from the imf. It has been tapped successfully by colombia, by poland, by mexico recently. It has helped because it is this kind of situation. People going to the im f for Emergency Assistance is a buying opportunity . I wouldnt call it an Emergency Assistance. Its like buying insurance before your house burns down, when its the cheapest and the most helpful. You have a fascinating job. I like it very much. Thank you very much. Good luck. Thank you. Gamers, the wait is almost over. Microsoft announced its one xbox system will hit store shelves on november 22nd. Find out if it along with sonys new playstation will give the beleagued industry the bonus life its been looking for. More on games when we come back. [ male announcer ] staying warm and dry has never been our priority. Our priority is, was and always will be serving you, the American People. So we improved Priority Mail flat rate to give you a more reliable way to ship. Now with tracking up to eleven scans, specified delivery dates, and free insurance up to 50 all for the same low rate. [ woman ] we are the United States postal service. 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I would imagine a lot of this, a lot of excitement has got to be priced in. The stocks have actually been doing well since about last november, which is sort of when the gun goes off for the year ahead on a new console launch, the anticipation started. These stocks always run ahead of new consol launches because theyre so important. If you look at the valuation of the stocks i would say compared to where they have been in some prior cycles, theyre still not that expensive. And so im sure youre talking about price to earnings ratios, that kind of thing. What are your top picks right now . My top pick is electronics art. We like activision and take two. We think they benefit from the rising tide that lifts all boats. Do you want to bet on the devices or on the games . Its hard to bet on the devices because then youre buying huge conglomerates like microsoft and sony and they have exposure to their game unit but its by far not the most important thing going on there. Its hard to bet directly on the device. Its much easier to bet directly on the software because these publishers, thats what they do. Tina, do you think these games that hes talking grand theft auto, the games ea are coming out with, whats the early buzz . The early buzz is pretty much the consols and whats coming out with sony and microsofts new devices. On top of that each one has their own exclusives as well. It really depends on your taste, but i suppose if youre talking about microsoft, one of the biggest buzz is titan fall which is also on pc so thats an option but its one of many. It sounds like some of what is happening in the gaming space is similar to whats happening in television, where you have people who dont just want to be the pipe, they dont want to do the device, theyre doing the content as well. Especially for these two new devices, it will be a complete entertainment system. Its not just going to be the games either, but definitely leading up to then, grand theft auto is, of course, always a big one. How important are the device launches themselves for the industry . Because its been a while, especially for the xbox. Absolutely. Its been about a decade since we have seen new consols. Its huge. Theyre going to transition us into a new decade of technology and hopefully well see games that take advantage of the power of the two new consols as well as the new features. What do you think about the xbox especially as it tries to position itself not just for the gaming space but for Media Consumption more broadly . Why isnt that doing more to make you excited about microsoft shares, for example . Well, this is i mean, this is what theyre trying to do. This is sort of the whole reason they got in this business in the first place. They didnt want to sell 10 million copies of halo. This is the bock thats going to prove out or disprove their strategy of being the hub of the living room now that we have a lot of living rooms connected to the internet, et cetera. I think they have a good strategy. I think theyve had a couple missteps in execution, but they still have a very attractive product, as does sony. It will be very interesting over the next couple years to see how the market share war plays out. Tina, what are the numbers . What do they have to hit . This is definitely a billion dollar industry, so they will have to top that, especially considering the resources theyve been putting in. Its going to have to kind of blow out of the water everything they have and that Million Dollar preorder figure for ps4 is that what people will be eyeing . It seems ps4 is faring slightly better than the xbox one. Microsoft has been trying very hard to including with some policy reversals, take back up for their consol. Betting on the games and not the devices themselves. An interesting one. Appreciate your time. Thank you. Yahoo has unveiled finally its new logo. Ceo Marissa Mayer posting it to their tumblr account. It sports a deeper purple, the Pantone Violet with a more modern sans sarif font. Cnbc and yahoo have a Business Alliance to share and coproduce editorial content before we go further. Well get analysis on the art of fonts. Gary is the director and producer behind the documentary helvetica. Thank you. What do you think of the yahoo change here . Well, they have been building up to this for the past month. Theyve been releasing every day for the past 30 days a new logo which i guess were the rejected designs culminating with todays release, and i mean, i think its personally kind of a boring redesign. I dont see any really . I thought you were going to take us into the nuance of the lettering and explain what it meant. Is that not the case . Its based on a font called optimo from 1950. Its been used millions of times before. It has that classical chiseled look thats supposed to connote stability. One of the yahoo vps said they wanted to communicate the elegance and refinement actually what she said was whimsical yet sophisticated, modern and fresh with a nod to our history, having a human touch, personal and proud. I think its designed by committee. Basically Marissa Mayer took a group of inhouse designers into a bunker for two hole days and came up with this new design. And i dont see a clear new vision here. I see kind of a boring safe choice. Is that what the font san serif tells you and what message does a san serif send . Its supposed to be clean and modern and forward, but this is a fobt that was designed 60 years ago and was patterned after a lettering in an ancient italian church. Doesnt that make it retro and trendy . I dont know. They put a little threedimensional bezel on it which looks circa 1995, but other than that destroying the work here. Why is helvetica should they have picked that . Probably not. I think they should have picked Something Else that was really kind of pushing the brand forward and something that was kind of new and fresh. Its just not that radical. What is the cool new front. Tell me comic sans has been relegated to theres thousands of them. Fonts are everywhere, and i think but is there one that has everyone excited . No. People fall back on what they know. Helvetica, its a safe stable choice. I didnt realize people have to pay royalties. Oh, yeah. It actually costs you to use a particular font because its a design. You are the expert. Who knew you knew so much. I think fonts are really interesting and it reminds me back during the famous steve jobs story where he had been in a calligraphy class. I wonder if helvetica isnt to your point about designed by committee, where you go with a stable font in an unstable world. Oh, yeah. Its everywhere. Optima is also the font used by estee lauder. Maybe they are trying to get more sophisticated. Next time they should call you in. Nice to see you. Gary joining us on yahoo s redesign. Its like somebody keeps hitting pause, rewind, play, netflix hitting yet another new high. Trading at levels not seen since july of 2011. Find out next if investors are in for another sequel or cliffhanger. Bell is about to sound across europe. Well get you details on the close and its impact back here after this. Its like somebody keeps well get you details on the [ male announcer] surprise youre having triplets. [ babies crying ] surprise your house was built on an ancient burial ground. [ ghosts moaning ] surprise your car needs a new transmission. [ coyote howls ] how about no more surprises . Now you can get all the online Trading Tools you need without any surprise fees. Its not rocket science. Its just common sense. From td ameritrade. [ male announcer ] some things are designed to draw crowds. Others are designed to leave them behind. The allnew 2014 lexus is. Its your move. The european markets are closing now. Markets across the uk and across Continental Europe are shutting down holding on to the gains. We had two important Central Bank Decisions today. One from the bank of england. The second from the European Central bank. The European Central bank didnt move on Interest Rates, neither of them did. We knew they wouldnt, but the ecb did say it was ready to cut Interest Rates again or pump more money into the eurozone economy if needed to bring money market rates back down. Mario draghi saying that the eurozones recovery is very, very green. He didnt mean green in that red green sense. Anyway, were at 1. 3116. European automakers did very well. Bmw, daimler, and volkswagen all gaining on that number we had in the United States for sales. Back in 2007 highs. Worries about syria are in the spotlight as president obama is among World Leaders gathering in st. Petersburg for the g20 summit. The president is looking to gain support for a military strike against syria while his russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is opposed to any such move. We will have more on those two men and their meeting over the coming days on cnbc. Lets bring in Mary Thompson as stocks here try to hold their gains, mary. They have been back and forth all morning. Its really been kind of a quiet session. Keep in mind a number of people are off because of Rosh Hashanah but also keeping a lid on the markets is the yield on the tenyear approaching that 3 level. That seems to be taken some of the wind out of the markets sails. Investors are waiting on tomorrows jobs data as well. Take a look at the tenyear. Its approaching that 3 level. So those gains there keeping a lid on stocks. But Interest Rate sensitive stocks are benefiting. Financials, which tend to benefit from the yield curve steepening are getting a bid. Were seeing strength in energy stocks. Under pressure though are the Telecom Stocks as well as utilitie utilities, both rate sensitive areas. Department Stores Coming on strong today. The samestore sales data overall was a little weaker than expected, but this group is getting some interest from investors today. The consumer appears to be fairly healthy, and so investors are buying into these stocks, but gold shares, which are lagging as gold itself is off just about 23. Gold having a very strong twomonth run, but in the last couple sessions its come under pressure and gold stocks in turn under pressure. A couple stocks to keep in mind, kaydon. Its one of the biggest gainers in the s p 500. Its up over 22 around the New York Stock Exchange i should say. Joseph a. Banks, despite reporting a drop in the companys Second Quarter results, Gross Margins actually stabilized so thats given a bit of a lift to the retailers stock. The dow up ten points. Simon, back to you. Thank you very much, Mary Thompson. Lets take a quick break. After that well be live with Rick Santelli in chicago. We go to rick now. Rick, join us. I thought so, simon. Lets keep that plug plugged in. Radio, tv, here we go. Were going to welcome our special guest today, mark grant. Welcome, mark. Hi, rick. Good to see you, my friend. Thank you. Listen, our theme today, real or memorex. Faux or not real or real. When i look at the employment rate, maybe i should be seeing an 11 handle instead of a 7 handle. No matter what the numbers so, sooner or later reality dawns on people. Millions of people not working or contributing. You see these issues in europe and you see them exaggerated because of the september 22nd elections. Dig down into that for us. Certainly, rick. In america the problem is what is counted, so when people who the government claims leaves the workforce, then they dont count those people anymore. So if you really look at the numbers and you drill down into it, the Unemployment Rate in america is about 11. 6 , not the 7. 5 number theyre giving us, and, of course, according to new data, 43 of all americans who could pay taxes are not paying taxes. Then in europe you have equivalent problems where the data thats given, say, for the debt to gdp ratios of the European Countries is not accurate because they dont count any number of liabilities we would count in america, and people, frankly, a ceo or cfo or ibm or ge would go to jail if they didnt put those numbers on their Balance Sheet. Greece, lets give a concrete example. They say that theyre going to need another bailout and its probably going to be in the 14 billion to 15 billion camp. You say the number is much higher. Tell us how you arrived at the much higher number. Certainly, rick. One of the places you can actually get reasonable data is at the bank for international settlement. If you go there and you start poring through all the numbers that they give you, you soon realize that the greece is in a lot more trouble than europe is telling you at present. What else is new. But europe is baring everything having to do with the german elections which i call the drop dead day on september 22nd, and i think after that date youre going to see a tremendous amount of bedbugs crawling out from under the bed. Portugal, greece, spain, the numbers just arent accurate and the debt to gdp ratios prince in the case of italy is not 122 . Its about 200 . So eventually the reality, the numbers, come out and are going to become recognized. You know what . Were going to have to stop there, but i think its best to trade on reality. Timing does become an issue, but in the end reality always wins. Thanks for taking time to join us today, mark grant. And simon and gang, back to you. Thank you very much, rick. Standouts today is the great data weve had again and the fact that the yield on the tenyear note is pushing higher as a result of bond selloff to 3 . So which stocks will be affected by those higher rates . Dominic chu has more on that back at hq. Were oh so close to hitting that 3 yield for tenyear government notes and the strong Downside Momentum for those prices, upside momentum for yields ever since talk of pulling back on fed stimulus back in may. Yields have gone up from 1. 65 in early may all the way up to where we are now, and during that time stocks have still continued to rise. The s p 500 up nearly 5 since the beginning of may, but still off those record highs. So what are the stocks that investors have loved to hate during the rise in Interest Rates . Perhaps no surprise, the utility stocks were the worst performers during that time span. Telecom also a bad performer. Think names like first energy for utilities, century link for tell le teleco telecoms. When Interest Rates rise, the relative competitiveness of these stocks as investments versus bonds, they tend to fall. The best performing sectors in this s p 500 run since may, industrials and consumer discretion yaary so names like Lockheed Martin and goodyear tire. How does it all look historically speaking . Sam stovall went all the way back to 1970 and looked at average monthly changes in the s p 500 during a rising Interest Rate environment. During that time span, yes, its the utilities, the financials, and the telecoms that are the worst performers, but if youre looking for the strong points, its technology, its energy, its materials. The more cyclical or economically sensitive stocks. So the question for investors is, how true will this hold in an age of unprecedented fed involvement in the markets . Will that same pattern suffice to say hold true i guess is the best way to put it going toord . Its an important question. Thank you very much. Trade ahead on the program, well focus on one of those stocks in particular thats been winning, netflix hitting another new high today. Levels not seen since 2011. But is it sustainable . Well talk about that next on the frahm. But first, here is a check on commodities following the release of the Inventory Data on crude oil and natural gas. Weve got the crude oil data 39 minutes ago. Not usually on this day of the week, due to mondays holiday. Were back in two. The world is changing faster than ever, creating new opportunities for those who stand ready to seize them. In a time when the biggest risk is playing it safe, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, our flexible, collaborative approach helps forwardlooking companies not only run better, but run different. To give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because now more than ever, the future belongs to those who challenge the present. Amelia. Neil and buzz for teaching us that you cant create the future. By clinging to the past. And with that youre history. Instead of looking behind. Delta is looking beyond. 80 thousand of us investing billions. In everything from the best experiences below. To the finest comforts above. Were not simply saluting history. Were making it. Coming up top of the hour on the Halftime Report do not fear the sector. And its new logo looks good but what about the stock . Plus under the radar retail pla plays. Why one top analyst says go home for big profits. Looking great, melissa. Thank you very much. Netflix hitting another oneyear high today getting closer and closer to the 300 a share mark but does the company have what it takes to sustain these gains . Barton crockett and mr. Pandola. You have a buy here and a 325 price target. Right. Why . I think netflix is becoming a Tv Network Company and i think thats a higher margin business. What makes them a Tv Network Company is they have a lot of content thats exclusive to them thats people like. Thats a Business Model that drives big margins. You look at things like hbo, discovery, viacom. I think netflixs margins are driving up to that level and that will drive earnings per share growth. They are making 2 bucks a share now, 5 bucks in a couple years, 10 bucks a couple years after that and it keeps growing from there. I think this is at story that still is in its early days, and i think the market is seeing that and appreciating that and i think our 325 price target really reflects that. Its phenomenal momentum when you look at the gains. 63 in six months but i think we were showing over 400 over the last 12. Are the bulls right in this case . Well, theyre right to pick the stock. I mean, i have been doing that since last summer. Its like shooting fish in a barrel to say netflix is going to go to 300. Theres such a disconnect between this company and the stock. This was a classic case of wall street getting the company wrong and driving the stock on nothing but momentum. This is not hbo. Theyre nothing like hbo. This is probably the biggest lie perpetrated on the American People since we thought george bush, you know, said there were weapons of mass destruction in iraq, that this is hbo. They dont have exclusive content like hbo does. They dont produce their own content like hbo does. They pay somebody else to do original programming. Why are we ignoring 6 billion in off Balance Sheet obligations . Revenue is only up 106 over the last three years. Rocco whats going on we ask whats going on with churn and he says i dont look at churn. So you dont need to either. Were not critical of all these things they sort of gloss over and the analysts for whatever reason never want to bring up. The churn point in particular is a great one. Back to your point about how theyre not hbo because someone else does the content for them, that may be the case but they still ultimately have original content as a result. So theyd be paying for the cost one way or the other. Why does it matter whether they do it or outsource it to someone else. Thats fine but what i want to know is, is it working . Everyone says they have hits. House of cards, arrested development is a hit. How do we know this . I was told theyre going to ask me, can they be competitive against the fall tv shows . I cant answer that question. They dont know. Barton people are telling me its a hit but they cant tell me how much people watch and netflix refuses to tell us. Barton, are you being complicity in what he says is the biggest lie . No, no, no. Hes throwing a lot of thin points out there, doesnt really understand how it all stitches together and doesnt make a coherent argument in what i hear, but i think is the story is that consumers love this service. Our surveys will tell us that peoples interest in netflix is right up there with digital video recorder, right tlup wiup with hbo barton, are you a wall street analyst . Youre an analyst. Look at the business. Dont tell us consumers love net flick and theyre like a Television Model so the stock is going to 325. Talk to us about is the original y al programming is popular . They have not given you a number. They refuse to give you a number to say how many people are watching and they need to do that because if we want to know if they can retain subscribers with original programming, we need to know how much okay, rocco, original content is one thing they have on the air. They also have disney movies in a couple years. 2016. Pretty popular. They have dreamworks movies next year, weinstein moves in a couple years. Those are pay tv window access that stacks up not quite to hbos level and what are they paying for this stuff, barton . Have they raised cash twice in the last two years . Explain to people the 6. 5 rocco, stand down for a second. Lets let barton go ahead, bar to be. Its easier to talk if someone actually lets you talk, but i think the netflixs revenues are multiple billions of dollars. Thats covering their content expenses. Their margins have been growing domestically, 100 basis points per quarter. How do they report margins . Contribution margin which backs outside g a and t d . Im interrupting you because youre not giving the full story. Youre not giving the man a chance. When you watch the tape back that just blows his whole bull case out of the water. Guys, were actually out of time. Thank you for being such a sport, barton. Thank you. Rocco, always good to see you, sir. Thank you both, gentlemen. A feisty debate on netflix. Coming up next, its shopping with a conscience. Find out how they are changing the world of Online Shopping to make it more ethical, more sustainable, and well talk to the companys cofounders when we come back. announcer scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer scottrade. Voted best Investment Services company. Many Grocery Shoppers browse shelves looking for labels like organic or grass fed, so why havent they been doing the same for other products. Just in final for fashion week, our next guests are trying to revolutionize the way we source or clothing. They are the cofounders of zadi and they join us on set. Good morning. Tell us about the company, whose idea was it and how quickly has it turned into something quite big and theres a real value in for a lot of people who want to know where their clothes come from . We came up with it together. It was inspired by a nonprofit maxine began in law school. She started the bootstrap project. And in working together on the bootstrap, i as an adviser, over time we realized there was a great Market Opportunity for preserving products. We created it to tell the story of global goods with transparent supply chains and authentic j origi origins. How is it doing now . We launched just over a week ago and the response has been absolutely tremendous. Its really exciting to see that people are making this connection. Theyve wanted to see this for a long time. Were seeing that across social and, of course, in sales at the earliest stages really getting positive feedback that zady is something they wanted to see. They want to know where their clothes come from. They dont want products in their closet that can be associated with the travesties that have happened around the world with this questionable supply chain that fast fashion has brought over the past decade. But how can you police it . How can you police the fashion industry is renowned forpfor pr to the nth degree. People are going to lie to you. If they have a problem, theyre going to lie to you about their supply chain. How do you get over that . To start, we require the brands that we work with, many of which are likeminded, because we launched with only 40 brands we vetted thoroughly. It began with research. We require them to sign a certificate authenticating with their Raw Materials come from, where the products are designed and come from and we put it on a map of the world and origins. Anyone can click on any product to see the origins of a brand. What were asking our community to do is help us police. You know, its not our brands sole responsibility, though we have done a good job of providing 40 alternatives. You believe theres a possibility of being naive . There would be a possibility. The problem has really begun with supply chain issues is that the companies are so large. Theyre licensing often times brands are licensing their name to, you know, a manufacturer who then sub partitions off that manufacturing process. Its really the scale that has created the supply chain problems. Were focusing on smaller producer or medium sized who own their manufacturing process or are close to it. Thats what i was going to ask. Is it about a product comes from or where its made. Its absolutely both. Its making sure the products that you are buying are high quality. Theyre stylish and its a timeless style that you can wear in your closet and wear day in and day out for many years. The problem, of course, being for a lot of consumers is this will be like buying organic. They feel like theyre paying 475 for a bag for example. Its great for those who can afford it and i guess you just hope it kind of prompts broader change. That bag was the first item to sell out. Its made in milan by a mother and daughter who found the best high qualitylet leather in the world. By telling the story on zady why we think that bag will last for decades and not merely months, people resonated with the story and it sold out right away. Its a fascinating story and certainly a company well watch, especially with fashion week coming up. Thank you both. Thank you. Tweet time. After 29 days of runner up logos, yahoo has finally released its new official version. Its the one on the bottom. Were asking you now that yahoo has unveiled its new logo, help the company come up with a tag line to accompany it. Tweet us squawkstreet. Well read some of your responses right after this short break. Ready to run your lines . Okay, who helps you focus on your recovery . Yo, yo, yo. Aflac. Wow. [ under his breath ] that was horrible. Pays you cash when youre sick or hurt . [ japanese accent ] aflac. Love it. [ under his breath ] hate it. Helps you focus on getting back to normal . [ as a Southern Belle ] aflac. [ as a cowboy ] aflac. [ sassily ] aflac. Uh huh. [ under his breath ] i am so fired. Youre on in 5, duck. [ male announcer ] when youre sick or hurt, aflac pays you cash. Find out more at aflac. Com. Therell be the usual presentations on research. And development. Some new members of the team will be introduced. The chairman emeritus will distribute his usual wisdom. And you . Well, youre the chief life officer. You just need the right professional to help you take charge. To help you take charge. Nascar is ab. Out excitement but tracking all the action and hearing everything from our marketing partners, the media and millions of fans on social media can be a challenge. Thats why we partnered with hp to build the new nascar fan and media engagement center. Hps Technology Helps us turn millions of tweets, posts and stories into realtime Business Insights that help nascar win with our fans. Its tweet time. After 29 days of runner up logos, yahoo has finally released a thinner and simpler redesign. They havent updated their logo in four years. We asked you to help the company come up with a tag line to accompany it. Dennis tweets, same logo, different font. Bill tweets, making everything simpler, even our logo. And emily tweets, sans serif, sans Everything Else. To you it does because you understand fonts. It was a play on i thought it was selfexplanatory. What do you think of the markets . 3 line has peoples attention and its like art carbon said eastercas cashin said earlier today, is it a trip wire . Didnt we go through this last month when the data was strong in advance of the employment report coming through tomorrow and everybody was like, yes and then it was a wet noodle. And then you got a disappointment and everything wept back again for a while. Now they have with the strong ism manufacturing and services, does it matter if that report is a little bit soft . Well find out. A moot point. Exactly. Thats coming up tomorrow morning. Well have plenty of coverage on squawk on the street. Thank you for joining us. Well hand it over to halftime as we hit noon on the east coast. And welcome to the Halftime Report. Requesting requesting im m im melissa lee in for scott wapner. The dow jones 14,950. Up by just a fraction of a percent. S p app 1656 and the nasdaq, 3660, up by a third of a percent. Here is what were following on the half. Retail detail. Is the consumer about a crack . Does it