Look weak. Walmart may have protesters outside its doors on friday. Deer misses earnings, and the market shrugs it off. Turmoil in israel with a bomb explosion on board a bus today and a rumored ceasefire that never happened. Crude is up 1 as the secretary of state has arrived in cairo. A big day full of planes, trains and automobiles with tens of millions of americans set to embark on their Holiday Weekend journeys. Our phil lebeau is in chicago with more on the Holiday Travel landscape. How painful is it going to be . You know, carl f youre traveling, you always need a little more patience thanksgiving weekend. For the airlines, theyre keeping their fingers crossed because if you look at a map of the United States, you really dont see any major storm systems. That means if its a smooth weekend, you talked about this being important to the profitability of fourth quarter, thats certainly good news for the airlines. Take a look at the number of people who will be traveling this thanksgiving weekend. Just under 44 Million People. Thats a slight increase from last year. The average amount theyre spending, thats down 10 . Less than 500. Why . In large part its because fewer people are flying. Theyre not spending as much for the airfare that might cost them 400, 500, maybe 600 if theyre flying across the country. Airlines have held down capacity. Thats one reason fewer people are flying. Another reason is because of the economy, some people are saying im going to hold off in terms of booking a flight especially because fares are not dropping. Because theres limited capacity. The airlines have been able to hold fares at a fairly consistent level. They are down according to aa compared to last year. Still, you wont find too many bargains unless youre looking for last minute deals to nontraditional places. One other thing, guys, as we take a look at rental car stocks, youve heard a lot of stories over the last couple of days. Its true. If you were looking to rent a car in the northeastern United States, which some people do during the Holiday Weekend, good luck because most of them are already spoken for. This is the carryover effect from superstorm sandy. So many cars were damaged, destroyed during the storm. As a result, rental cars have been tight for some time in the northeastern United States. And thats the case this weekend. A lot of people, believe it or not, guys, they do like to rent a car in order to make the trip of 300 or 400 miles. This year in the northeast, good luck if you dont already have a reservation. Carl, back to you. Phil, the airport where you are looks pretty crowded but orderly. Theres one Silver Lining for people who are traveling and that is, perhaps, airlines are actually running closer to on on time these days. Reporter yes. Thats because youve seen restricted capacity. Fewer flights, its not as packed and as a result its easier to keep with the ontime schedule. Unbelievable, phil. Thanks so much. Phil at ohare. I saw a stat today, since 07 i think airlines have taken out 14 of their capacity. Wow. Theyre running lean and mean. In terms of getting a flight over the holidays, its going to be packed. Its going to be packed flights. In terms of an approach to the sector, some who say youre starting to see the airlines generate real Free Cash Flow with come consistency, in part because of what you mentioned. In the past its like, okay, more capacity, more capacity, lower prices. They havent done that. Its important to keep an eye on from an investment perspective. If they keep generating Free Cash Flow, the trade, so to speak may dissipate and they may be an investment. And an opportunity to gain shares with airlines, with u a. L with computer problems that grounded flights. Some say customers have defected, they left ual, they dont want to take a chance and that could be an opportunity for other carriers to gain those customers. Meantime, retailers, another big story as we gear up for the Holiday Season. Were counting down to black friday. In some cases black thanksgiving night. Courtney reagan at headquarters with a roundup. Im getting excited. Two days until what many see as the biggest shopping day of the year. The forecasts are as plentiful as the door busters. The internet has changed things for some. The weather is forecast to be mostly dry throughout the country. Not terribly cold. That should help traffic. The National Retail federation expects 147 million shoppers will hit the stores or the web black friday weekend. Thats 5 million less than planned to do so last year. Deloit says 63 of those surveyed will shop in stores black friday. 23 thanksgiving day. Thats up from 17 last year. As is the tradition retailers are heavily promoting, even those like jcpenney who normally dont do sales. Its for a market share. Many retailers are rolling outdoor busters progressively using social media to announce the deals. Electronics will be the hot item, tablets and bluray players, and furbie back, too. It could be 10 to 20 of the holiday sales. It could be 158 billion total sales. Thanksgiving is falling, the technical earliest it could fall. This year the first was a thursday, so that means there are more days between thanksgiving and christmas for shopping and selling. And then you add in the early thanksgiving hours and this may be the longest Holiday Shopping season weve had in a number of years. Courtney, are you hearing anything about the walmart protest and whether that could impact the Holiday Shopping season . Walmart says customers who go to their stores, everything will be operating normally, they wont see anything unusual at the stores but what are you hearing on the ground . From what i can tell, that does seem to be the case in most locations. I mean, keep in mind walmart has almost 4,000 stores. Some workers will be protesting at some locations. However, it is not expected to disrupt the actual shopping. If it would, there is actually some legal action that walmart can take. Thats what ive heard, according to some lawyers i spoke to. If any protests disrupt shopping, block doors, things like that that could make it dangerous for the associates at work or the consumers themselves. Bottom line, it seems like the protests will happen. Its not expected to disrupt shopping to a large degree. Theres a lot of discussion about how theres no must have traditional toy this year. With all the competition from apps and games, i mean, regular toys are kind of in trouble. I know. One of the worst christmases expected. If you look at the top toys, its toys weve seen from many years. Barbie top of the girls list, lego, monster high dolls for girls, furbie. Weve seen it before. Ipads are on a lot of childrens lists. They see moms and dads using them, they want to play angry birds or whatever the hot game is. You have retailers like toys r us creating their own tablet for children. Well see how well that takes off. We know apple is the market share leader there so kids might pass over toys r us tablet for the ipad because thats what they know. Some of the downgrades of hasbro and mattel shows that. Youll be busy. Im excited. What is tops on your list in your household for toys . Anything involving princesses. David, i dont know about you, but rapunzle hair, that was a big question. That was a couple years ago, the tower. 10yearold boy, no toys. Toys are done and over. Underarmour and smeekeneakers. Thats awe he wants. Faster to run away from you. Deer reporting well below wall street estimates but revenue exceeded consensus. They see demand for large equipment but noticed caution around livestock and dairy markets. This is a stock with renewed focus because it is Warren Buffetts one of his latest additions. Small stake but he did add. 143 million. The journal takes a crack at why you would want it. Secular advances in need for global grain output, emerging markets and so ford. Along his Burlington Northern play. He adds to the position down the road. Its only a 1 stake right now. Where are we in terms of i know the company put outlook looking 5 increase for full year 2013 in equipment sales, 10 for the First Quarter and 3. 2 billion. How does that figure in line with what wall street was expecting. Revenue guidance, growth guidance, that was a little stronger than was expected. This stock has had a monster run since its last earning report back in august. Its up 18 since the end of september. An outperformer relative to the broader market. The question is, is this a pullback, not only because the eps missed but also because they had a big run of late. Are people simply taking profits here . We dont talk a lot before greece because theres a lot we dont know. They worked for 11 hours overnight trying to get a bill for this bailout tranche. Merkel says theres a good chance well get there but theyre not infusing a lot of confidence into the market. They arent. Its been weeks and continues to be a bit of a divide between the imf and other parties and what Christine Lagarde has indicated would be her desire to go through 2016. Well see. Its amazing to think were still talking about greece. Even if they get these dispersements over time theres still a belief you have to pound down on creditors again if youre really going to return this country to anything regarding fiscal rectitude. Worried about france, the country that preceded it. From a fiscal cliff rally to the pullback, whats ahead for the market . Want to bring in Michael Jones with river front Investment Group and charles, vice chairman and director with aerial investments. Theres a piece this morning saying opening round of talks over the fiscal cliff has left both sides, quote, pessimistic about a deal. Gm put an opener on the table that didnt really move the ball in either direction. How attuned is the market to that right now, given Everything Else going on . You know, i think that the market is really pretty confident that were going to get some sort of deal that avoids a fiscal cliff. The reason for thats clear. You know, 2011 neither side really wanted a deal. The republicans already had their big ask, which was the extension of the bush tax cuts. President obama wasnt interested in a deal because he didnt have much leverage. That meant any deal would favor the republicans and alienate his core constituencies. You fast forward to now, look, all negotiations go through ups and downs, but the bottom line is that both sides need a deal. If the republicans push us off the fiscal cliff, they will be blamed for the subsequent recession and theyll pay the price in 2014. President obama also needs a deal because history doesnt remember who the speaker of the house was during a period of weak economic growth. The president gets the credit or the blame. Hes going to be written about for 300 years and he does not want to preside over eight years of the weakest growth in u. S. History. So, he needs a deal so that the next four years are better than the last four years. Well see. Obviously, still the opening days of this process. Charlie, the fed chairman in new york yesterday referring to these talks, reiterating how important it is they get done. He coined the term, fiscal cliff, the Washington Post today says. Also adds that the evans rule is an area they continue to look into. Fallout today from what he said yesterday . Ilgt bit but that will happen. The market will be going up and down on small indicators. Is john boehner smiling or frowning today . Well have a lot of volatility for the next two or three months because i do think its going to be two or three months. I think this is going to go into january. I think close to a 50 chance well go over the fiscal cliff temporarily. The market wont react well to that so its going to be very, very bumpy couple of months here. That said, seasonally, i was told not too long ago, the period between thanksgiving week and december 3rd, the past 20 years has been positive for stocks for 17 of those 20 years. Is there going to be any kind of hope for a santa claus rally here, michael . I think there is. Thats simply because pessimism has reached a level of extreme that historically has led to higher markets over the next three months 81 of the time. The average market gain when pessimism has gotten to this low a level has been about 7 . I think when you look at the basic, you know we have three rules to guide our tactical trading. Dont fid the fed. Obviously on our side. Dont fight the trend. Powerful uptrend since 2005. Now sentiment has reached a pessimistic extreme. Very, very supportive of that seasonal tendency of the market to gain over the next three months. Charlie, youve been a longtime holder of financials. Im just curious between now and the end of the year, is your inclination to trim those positions given theyve had a massive run since the beginning of the bull market . Great question. Short term, as i said, i think theyll be volatile but we dont think its a good idea to trade short term. Theyre still very cheap. I agree with michael, after we get through this, we will, well have a rally in the market. The whole market is cheap. When we get past this, and we will, stocks will do very well. Like kkk, blackstone, Morgan Stanley are extremely cheap. Again, going to be very volatile for the next six weeks. Have a great holiday. Thanks, guys. Happy thanksgiving. Mean sometime the secretary of state making the rounds today in jerusalem, ramallah and cairo, pursuing a ceasefire in the Israeli Palestinian conflict. Nbc news correspondent Stephanie Gosk is in tel aviv with the latest. Good morning. Reporter this blast took place around lunchtime. A commuter bus here in central tel aviv. Right now authorities are saying that it was a terrorist attack, although not a suicide attack. At least 11 people were injured. Several of them seriously. You know, this will look very familiar for people here in tel aviv and israel. This was a tactic used a decade ago. These bus blasts that scared people. A lot of people not taking buses at the time. This will complicate the furious diplomatic effort. You mentioned secretary clinton is on the ground. Shes trying to shepherd a ceasefire process. This will make it more complicated. After the blast a spokesperson for hamas called this a heroic attack. Thank you, Stephanie Gosk with the situation in tel aviv. Lets take a check on crude oil. Of course, it has moved almost in lockstep with how, you know, deep the crisis has gotten over there. Wti is a picture were looking at right now. Really the biggest action over the past three days has been in brent. Thats much more tied to the International Oil market outside the United States. Thats where we see the real increases over the past three days. In fact, the premium of brent to wti, that has widened to as much as 23. 58. Thats the widest level weve seen over the past three days. There we go, brent is up 1. 3 . Weve got the retail countdown to black friday for you. Let the tablet wars begin. Which device will santa be carrying this year . All the christmas references will work their way into our teases. Well take a closer look at the tech showdown. One more check on futures, moderate weakness. Well see how we close out. A full session, probably a light volume ahead of a shortened session on friday. [ female announcer ] want to spend less and retire with more . At etrade, our free online tools and Retirement Specialists can help you build a personalized plan and execute it with a wide range of low cost investments. Get a great plan and low cost investments at etrade. Since Ameriprise Financial was founded back in 1894, theyve been committed to putting clients first. Helping generations through tough times. Good times. Never taking a bailout. There when you need them. Helping millions of americans over the centuries. The strength of a Global Financial leader. The heart of a onetoone relationship. Together for your future. Take a look at fair value. Dow implied open down about 19 points. I dont know if we have i guess we dont have a camera ready to take a live shot of the floor right now where santa, of all people, has showed up. Hes not coming to town, he is in town. There he is. I dont see how we close negative today with that. Getting ready for the last float in the thanksgiving day parade, which is always san sta clause. He probably has thoughts on the fiscal cliff, with presents hopefully not coal in the stockings of boehner and obama. Is he ringing the bell . The executive producer of the macys thanksgiving parade is here to do the honors. I assume santa will be joining her. In television thats what we call a get, if you can book that guy. Look at him. Bring on the rally, i guess, traders are saying to him. I know whose lap im sitting on later, ill tell you that. Really . Wow. All right. All right. Who will rule the last trading day before thanksgiving . The bulls or the bears . Coming up next, art cash on what hes expecting from the matters as we count down to the closing bell. Boston market on the business of thanksgiving. Much more squawk on the street straight ahead. 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