Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20240622

Ahead of this take a look at the futures. You did see an update for the markets but now things are relatively flat based on the big swings we have seen this week around greece. It does look like were looking at green arrows with the dow futures up 24 points. S p futures up by 5 and nasdaq up by 10. Greece negotiations between athens and creditors, thats off. At least for now. Everything is in a Holding Pattern ahead of this referendum off the countrys future that comes on sunday. It would back pension cuts and other measures and a no vote could trigger greeces exit from the euro despite the attempted reframing by the greeks. We have a lot more from michelle in athens and shell be with us in a couple of minutes. I agree with the greeks. I dont think either one would result in an exit. Theyre saying a no vote means that we should go back for tougher negotiations and the other europeans are saying thats not what that means. I think both sides are do you remember suicide isnt painless . Youre seeing slow and painful death is not. Thats what theyre watching. It would be faster if they do exit it i mean just the most basic services. Developed countries cant go back to the stone age in three days. It doesnt work that way. What im seeing is the strange bed foalellows. I understand theyre saying theyre being so humane and i dont understand how just asking for reforms that make it possible that the money youre lending someone gets paid back. I dont see how is that so draconian. And even on fox last night i watch fox. I love brett and this guy did this piece, totally antieurope. Total antieurope. Talking all the parties in greece saying look whats happening here because of what the germans are doing to us. And unlike the people that we found yesterday that says we need to get this done. Whats so amazing is you can understand why this is painful now but these are reforms that europeans have been asking for for years at this point. The greeks are repeatedly said no no no and said were not going to change these things. Its like looking at this country. When you Start Talking about reform on Social Security its easier to do and tell people when theyre 30 or 40 years old. Not when theyre about to retire. Its difficult to tell somebody were changing the rules of the game today when youre retiring tomorrow. Thats inhumane. However you can look back at years and years of greek leadership that have not looked at whats happening here and realized that this is the reality. This is what you have to do. In this country we would look at if an area got in trouble we would feel sort of lets just divy things up but over there its not that cohesive. Germany, theres a lot of people its almost like when people wanted to get out of their mortgage and youre saying i havent bought all of this stuff so i can pay my mortgage we have been doing all the right things for so long and weve had our own brand of austerity and not paying everything forward. Now you want to come along after living high off the hog. I dont disagree with you but it takes two to tango and if the goal is to get your money back. Youre going to have to come up to the table. If you owe 100 to the bank you owe the money to the bank. A million dollars. But what i do think is they should lower taxes. Some of the austerity has been insane. They should lower taxes. You know that youre never going to get me to admit to lower taxes. Its like talking to a brick wall. No way. I want more. Not in greece. Money should be with the government. But there are some of these austerity measures that seem like theyre ridiculous and theres no way you could live with them but other issue need to be taken in advance and what bothered me about the statement coming back yesterday is we will agree to all of this with some exceptions and some were Pension Reforms and Structural Reforms that need to happen. Theres a great conversation. At least all three of us will be able to talk about this all next week as its happening. Or not. Or not. Oh you guys are both out. Well be here monday. Sure fine good idea. Thats fine. Ill just talk to yourself. Yeah we have other news to tell you about. Other crisis debt news no less. Puerto rico paid off of its 1. 9 million due this week. Thats good news for an island on the brink of financial disaster. Theres a number of payments still yet to come as the summer progresses. Corporate headlines this morning, the ceo of electrolux says it would not make sense for either party but the company is still open for discussions. Yesterday the doj filed a lawsuit to stop the Swedish Company from buying the ge unit saying the deal would hurt competition. Ge says it will fight that lawsuit. Its a weird one, isnt it . That one is a weird too one. Appliances. Dont want anyone cornering that market. Really . That i have not looked enough at. After being asleep for years the antitrust side of things is just like gone off the rails. Well talk about that later but they have gone off the rails. For 25 years they did go to sleep. Its probably not a good idea to go like this and decide policy based on that so they ask the airlines you know you guys lost 33 billion over the past decade. Why dont you all get together. Get together. That was two years ago and then the minute theyre together and they start controlling capacity and say you guys are all controlling capacity. Did you guys decide to do that together . The stocks have been under pressure because analysts and wall street thought they were not controlling capacity well and they would be expanding too quickly. But what business like commercial real estate do you keep building or try to match demand with supply . Or tim cook do you make so many iphones that you flood the market or do you want to be able to control pricing so you try to match demand and supply together. I will try and take some sort of side. What i will say is look theyre stepping in. You look at justice and whats been happening. Theyre stepping in and its always a pendulum swing. Maybe things got too far this direction. At least theyre not picking on industries that consumers already have a beef with. Do you notice who they pick . Cable. Do you think anyone is going to say dont go after the Cable Company . Because of their own experience with the cable guy and airlines and everybody they lost my bag. I have to pay for baggage now. Everybody hates them. Do you think that anybody is going to defend them . Theyre easy targets. Exactly. What industry is notville villified. Technology. Google has gotten too profitable. They can find a way to hate them. Banks, insurance companies, Drug Companies car companies. Pick a hollywood movie. They like the car companies. They do. The thing on the airlines is its not just about capacity. There is nothing wrong with capacity to the extent youre making it a business the only issue is whether theres any form of quote unquote signaling either explicit or implicit in terms of what their plans are and what that does. They can do it with implicit . You have an email saying were going to make sure the explicit is obviously makes it easier to bring a case. Theres a number of these conferences that theres quotes now where you see them having these conversations. It says we just ran into so and so and we say were not going to do that flight. But when you have shareholders and analysts saying dont control capacity. Youre only as smart as your stupidest competitor. But if they arrive at the same conclusion that we dont want to overbuild this time that doesnt mean theyre all in a back room. That would be tough to prove. Absolutely correct. I was massaging andrew well not literally. It didnt look look a massage. But i said you really dont want i need one after the show. I said you really dont want to take this side do you . Its an argument that you cant possibly take the side but you see what im saying. Its a tough i know how you feel about the airlines. Its a tough one. I want to see what comes out. I dont know the answer. Well talk about it more next week. All of these conversations. Oh thats right. Now back to greece, chief international correspondent. Correspondent is too long to fit. So it always says correspond t. And whats your first name that start with t . Hi joe. Good morning. Greece is in full campaign. Good morning. Greece is in full Campaign Mode today for sundays referendum. The question on the ballot fairly technical and complicated. To simplify it should greece accept the bailout agreement which would inform it on greece. Were going to learn some greek this morning. We can put it on the screen for you. Oxi is no. You pronounce it oxi. Yes is nai. We have that on the screen. We havent so many nai posters but nai advertisements on television. Theyre brutal and show a lot of statements from tsipras and the finance minister over the last several months. All the promises that they made that right now appear to be completely falling apart. He was on National Television last night urging greeks to vote no and telling them dont worry. This is not about the euro. This is about trying to get a better deal where once again the dutch finance minister is out right now doing an interview somewhere saying this is a vote on whether or not you want to stay in the euro. If you vote no we find it very hard to believe that greece can stay in the euro and, in fact a greece that doesnt reform does not even belong in the euro zone. The toaltynality is getting tougher. No is at 43 . Whats interesting is when the question was asked do you believe greece should remain in the euro zone no matter the sacrifices, you get to 74 . On that core question guys this population still very much wants to stay with the euro. Back to you. Before you said that i said i bet you its 70 michelle. Thats what it came up to. Yeah. Michelle you get the feeling that that has been despite what were hearing from greek leaders at this point . If they vote no that they are actually voting that they want out of the euro . Thats what the european versus been trying to say but thats not what the greek leadership has said. I think the people know that already intuitivetyily. If you vote no or dont want the reforms you might have to leave the euro and the people against it said yeah so what. And the people that support a yes vote very much have been saying even before this whole campaign process started they believe this is about the euro. But despite it all the greek people demonstrate to me on a daily basis they think this is a vote about the euro. What happened ifs the yes vote goes through . I know that we have been watching tsipras and he thinks that he can maybe still come in and lead. Is there someone else waiting in the wings . Greek politics are so complicated. Theres so many moving pieces. So he said he would stay and also that he would go. Its hard to know at this point. You talk to political analysts and theyre like no way. If he loses this vote its impossible for him to stay in that position and then the president of the country has a choice to make about whether or not they do elections. Whether or not they try to form some kind of Coalition Government government. I think bottom line what everybody has to remember at this point the banks here are closed for a long time. They originally closed them for six days but that was before the agreement expired a couple of days ago. Now they have to get a whole new agreement before things are going to get better with the ecb so regardless of what happens on sunday were talking about weeks, maybe months with the banks being closed. That seems like an enormous hardship. If they vote yes and want to stay with the European Union is there a chance that the ecb comes in and releases capital controls and floats them a little bit while theyre going through the rest of this . I suppose thats possible but i think what is becoming incredibly clear from all the statements that have come out of european leaders they dont trust this government and they dont trust alexis tsipras, the Prime Minister and i know they dont trust the finance minister and they are overtly pushing for a change in leadership saying we cant trust these people. We need a new negotiating team if theres going to be another deal for the greek people. All right. Michelle, thank you. Well check in with you later this morning. Its not just greece that the markets are watching but the june jobs report coming up in two hours 15 minutes. Joining us is steven friedman. The head of cross asset strategy at ubs Wealth Management and anthony chan who is chief economist at chase. And we know this jobs report is important because people wonder what the fed is going to be doing next. I think the fed realizes the economy is gradually improving and theyre all barring any negative International Development to change your mind. My guess would be september but if things flair up perhaps they wait until december. I look for this number to be up 250,000. I look for average Hourly Earnings to go up about. 2 and i look over the next several months for the Labor Force Participation rate to continue to creep higher. I did work look at Consumer Confidence and you saw yesterday the Consumer Confidence move to the second highest level since this economic expansion began and when that goes up the Labor Force Participation tends to go up. Over a several month period i see that number moving higher. Whats the Market Reaction . If the numbers come in at 250 or above whats the reaction . If it comes in at 200 or below whats the reaction . The neutral zone is probably 210 to 280. The current consensus number is probably lower than the shadow number which has probably been creeping up in recent days with stronger data. So i think given that greece is such an important factor here it does take a number outside of pretty big range to jolt the market in one direction or another. If its a really hot number is that something the market is concerned about . Great news for jobs growth but would the street start thinking does that bring the fed in faster . A strong number could be a little bit of a negative for the markets in terms of the knee jerk reaction. I dont think it matters longer term. I think you look at this from a quarter head perspective it just means that the economy is strengthening and the earnings picture will continue to be strong and thats going to be driving things but i do think you could get a little bit more negative on the news. You pointed out that you think the fed is ready to move. Probably september im guessing unless theres something that happens on the international front. Greece is what we are talking about every day. Is that enough of something to keep the fed at bay . Greece is certainly one of those factors. You mentioned in the show earlier puerto rico. You put both of those together and they flair up. You think puerto rico. Everybody is excited the payments were made but over the next several months they have to have a restructuring of some sort. Thats still going to drag on. Its not as severe yet but they could force the feds hand to postpone it and go in december. You heard bill dudley saying he wouldnt be surprised if its september. If theyre waiting for the perfect time. If youre waiting for the entire global to be calm and things to be headed your direction i dont know how you ever get out of the box and start. Thats precisely why i believe and i indicated they can l do something this year the question is whether they do two or one. The consensus is do two fed hikes. If i were to pick one outcome it would be one fed tightening this year. Think that would be september . If i only had one choice i would say december is the more likely scenario and next year they raise rates by about 100 basis points in addition to whatever they do this year. He says this is the correction that the market has been sitting here doing nothing. Earnings growth has been improving over that period of time. Other people say were still way out. We had robert on yesterday thats concerned about valuations. She was saying sell it. Its weird. 7 to 9 . Off the high which is even less decline than here. Its a weird call. Its fair to consider the first half of the year as a consolidation at these levels and i dont think you get back to a phase where you have multiple expansion leading the market a lot higher but the market will start focussing on the relatively good earnings picture. Might say we have an upside of 6. 5 . That is reasonable returns and thats really predicated on the economy and the earnings pictures remain robust. If you youre looking at growth. Well probably see something around 2. 5 . Last year 2. 4 and one point on the equity market one of the things looking at the yield curve, when you see it steepening and it occurs because long yields go up that has been consistent with about a 10. 5 rate in return. While i think thats too aggressive, i wouldnt be surprised if you get something in the neighborhood of 5 to 8 . We have major ground to make up in the second half of the year. 5 to 8 . If sentiment starts to get positive could occur in less than 60 days. Thank you for coming in. Steven, thank you. Coming up the Justice Department investigating whether airlines are colluding to keep air airfares high. A prince giving away to his own charity. Extraordinary. And whether this is the right time to be buying real estate. But first, heres a look back at this date in history. A new season brings a new look. A chance to try something different. This summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. Take advantage of our summer offers. The 2015 cadillac srx, a crossover with space safety, and style. Lease this from around 339 per month. When youre not confident your companys data is secure the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. Thats where at t can help. We monitor Network Traffic worldwide, so we can see things others cant. Mitigating risks across your business. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. Welcome back. In our headlines today the saudi prince plans to give away his 32 billion fortune to charity. The prince wants to do this to build a world of tolerance, acceptance equality and opportunity for all. The money will be pledged to his Charitable Organization but he says that he is look at causes around the globe. He says saudi arabia and the middle east was his priority but it will also go to international causes. Previously his charity has partnered with the bill and melinda gates. I cant see a mention of the giving pledge. Is he listed . Well check it out. We do commend him on this. That was a weird statement what did he say about tolerance and stuff . He said that he is looking at a better world of tolerance, acceptance equality, and opportunity for all. See i think a cynic hes not a signer. Hes not a giving pledge signer. They would look at saudi arabias role theres an extreme form of islam that they have covertly backed a little bit to some extent what is it . And its just im glad that hes doing that but saudi arabia could probably do more in terms of not how many of the guys were saudi . 18 out of 19 or something. A significant portion of them. He says he wants to contribute to the elimination of poverty and famine to support development, health and education in the most deprived community. Hes a good guy. I like when he comes on. I take him at face value. 32 billion. Giving away his entire fortune. Thats incredibly impressive. Ill take the good side of it now for. In the meantime we have a little bit of a debate this morning. God forbid you do that with a u. S. Company. The Justice Department is investigating whether u. S. Airlines worked together illegally to keep airfares high by signaling plans to limit flights. Theyre calling on carriers to explain decisions to deliver the number of seats they offer and what they said about those plans. American airlines delta, continental and southwest confirmed that they have been in receipt of the letters from the doj and they all say theyre cooperating fully with the investigation as we mentioned earlier. The big thing is going to be whether or not there are emails or other documentation of people saying, ran into so and so at a conference. Heard so and so say this. Were not going to do this. The bigger question to me is whether there are emails that say were looking and we see american is no longer going to be running this flight and then whether it matters or not. Thats not solution. Its going to take a very big smoking gun and gets these guys in the room. What happens with steve jobs and some of the guys that agreed not to hire or approach each other. That was that was straight up. Did you know the knee jerk Oil Price Decline reaction did he say it again . Or were they just summarizing what he said last time . Hes been on this kick. I remember talking to his people when i wrote that column a couple of months back and prior to that he already said it prechristmas. To me thats the most similar listic simplistic in the world. When oil prices go up you cant automatically raise prices because they might not stick. So you cant just raise unless you have a fuel surcharge. There are other industries there is a fuel surcharge in the Airline Industry. At times. At times they have tacked it on and dont take it off. Meaning when the fuel price goes down. I use fresh direct and theres a fuel surcharge, Something Like 75 cents. We can have utilities. Maybe the internet ends up a utility. The airlines were totally regulated and we decided that wasnt the right way to do it. But if you want to limit profits for companies to make sure that consumers are in some way better served. We can do it to every industry. But history told us its better to let things i would like to see the capitalistic system work the only thing i would say is transport is a very complicated thing. Its like using the train. Amtrak. Its tough. Tough entry. But you have to deal with the government to get the slots. But if you can get more planes in the sky its better for the economy. But you cant fly if you can get these trains going properly look whats happening and those have transformed the country. Theyll never pay them back. You have to subsidize that. And we have to figure out what we want. You cant fly empty plains around. I dont want to suggest that we do. Everybody goes bankrupt and then Justice Department is on their side and then go against them again. Do you remember being on a plane when you could hay on three seats in a row. Peanuts. I know. I dont know how you feel about this but theres a lot of municipalities right now say it dont spray it. I need to anuns yagsciate. Theres a lot of municipalities that do it. They want Airlines Flying there so they guarentee a certain number of seats for the year. The actual town will pay the airline for that so they can have the transport. It becomes a very complicated issue. Do you know do the trains in germany make money . I cant imagine on a operating basis maybe they do but when you actually were to you know add in the infrastructure cost theres no way. Theres no way. Youre going 320 kilometers per hour. Over 200 Miles Per Hour and when one comes the other way and youre not expecting it. Right. Okay. Were going to now talk about the second half and whats open for play. We got diana talking about housing and what we have in store. Diana. It is all about prices for both buying and renting. Home prices are still rising but at a slower pace than this time last year. Not the case for rent which is are at record highs in some markets as demand far outpaces supply. Wres were seeing more multifamily construction and delivery of those units buttock but occupancy is at an all time high. The key for buyers is twofold. First the mortgage market. Rates are expected to rise slightly and new rules for lenders going into effect for the second half of this year could stem access to credit. Second, supply. Housing starts are rising but at a far slower pace than demand. And builders are trying to hold on to their Pricing Power and they can do that a lot more easily when supplies are slim but some are starting to give putting up those lower priced homes which could stoke overall sales in the second half of this career. You mentioned in the report that theres new rules that could actually limit the ability to get mortgages. What kind of rules are you talking about . Im not going to use all the letters. Make sure that borrowers can repay and everything is completely transparent. They already put them off one month. They delayed them. But we do expect them to come into effect this fall. Everyone is going to have every t crossed and every i dotted and for some borrowers it may be harder but overall it should help the market in general to get those good borrowers in and not see any more trouble down the road. You heard the last part of dianas report theyre trying to limit supply. I heard that too. I wonder if theyre colluding too. Did the department of justice look into that . Thanks. Coming up, the sound of money, billy joel what is your knuckle head husband doing today . Hes djing i was going to talk about this chairs. Hes going to guest deejay on ozzies bone yard. Hes a metal head. He is. Its ozzie. Who names a band megadeath . What would prompt someone to call themselves mega death. Anyway hes going to be doing this on the Ozzie Osborne channel. What time . Im going to find out. Ill talk about it in chairs. Billy joel breaks a major record at Madison Square garden last night. That story when squawk box comes back. The life behind it. Those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. Get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. What do you got to offer us today . Balance transfer thats my game bank you never heard of, thats my name haa thank you. Uh, next. Watch me make your Interest Rate. Disappear. Theres gotta be a better way to find the right card. Whatever kind youre searching for, creditcards. Com lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one thats right for you. Just search, compare, and apply at creditcards. Com. A one, a two, a three percent cash back when youre living with diabetes steady is exciting. Only glucerna has carbsteady clinically proven to help minimize blood sugar spikes. So you stay steady ahead. You wouldnt take medicine without checking the side effects. Hey honey. Huh. The good news is my hypertension is gone. So why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Check your broker with brokercheck. Welcome back everybody. We were just talking before we came over to the chairs about something happening this weekend. My husband, is taking over a spot as a guest dee jay. Its called the ultimate sinner. Its on ozzie boneyard which is on sirius satellite radio. Fans take over a half hour of programming. They get to play five of their favorite songs and talk about why they think theyre so great. Hes doing it today at thursday 3 00 p. M. It will air a couple more times. Any repeat out of the five . All different groups . He wouldnt let me listen. He wont tell us which ones they are. No i know this theme of it. I dont know the songs but i know the theme of why he picked those five songs. Is iron maiden one of them. Kansas is not metal. Theyre all ozzie songs arent they . He told me the theme. I know what the theme is. Iron maiden. He wouldnt let me listen to it. Xm. That was never my thing. Did you ever see ozzie when he was young . He was like hot and i look at him now and i say what happened. Not that theres anything wrong with that. Happens to the best of us. I just saw an ozzie impersonator. Doing young ozzie. Old ozzie. I thought it was him and he was serenading this group of women who were having a birthday or something. You have the strangest life. It was very strange. It really was. Real quickly, billy joel had more concerts than anyone else at Madison Square garden. Maybe hell come on sometime. He beat out elton john. Thats his record he took over. Is that true . I was going to mention elton john. I reentered my phase last week by downloading tumble weed connection. He played goodbye yellow brick road. I just keep hearing you saying youre downloading music. Are you buying it per song . I also download all this old cat stevens stuff. I love that. I got to get you streaming. Just out of cheapness, how much money have you spent if you buy the album how much did it cost you . I dont get involved with finances. You have nothing to do with finance. Personal finances. I try to make sure nothing bounces. Thats all i do. Other people pay things. Way to go. When we come back if youre a Hedge Fund Manager that wants to play greece you know our next guest, the man every investor consults before making a move joins us live from athens when squawk box returns. These two oil rigs look the same. Can you tell what makes them so different . Did you hear that sound . Of course you didnt. Youre not using ge Software Like the rig on the right. Its listening and learning how to prevent equipment failures, predict maintenance needs, and avoid problems before they happen. You dont even need a cerebral cortex to understand which is better. Now, two things that are exactly the same have never been more different. Ge software. Get connected. Get insights. Get optimized. Welcome back to cnbc. Im in athens dprees with a special guest. She the founder of the investment group. Big Investment Fund here in the southern part of europe. Im sure they all see you now and are saying hi george. Good to have you here. Good to be here. Hi to everyone. Youre one of the leaders of the yes campaign. We in favor of yes because thats the only way for hope and future for the greek people. How did we get here . We talked months ago and neither one of us thought it would come to this situation. Its pollitics that caused all of this. Democracies are funny sometimes but theyre the best we have. When come people sell hope to hopeless people and they dont know what theyre doing and dont have a plan and theyre hijacking peoples vote thats how you end up here. When you say dont reveal their actual plan do you think theres Something Else at work here . Its did you havefficult to answer that. But theres two answers to your question, they either had a plan which is not what they executed or what they stated or theyre improvising along the way but we all have to understand that their tactics didnt work. Theres no way you get money without a reform packet and theres no way you can sustain this government in place the day after sunday. Are you convinced hell stay in office or leave office if you loses the vote on sunday . He hasnt stated he will resign. He has said it in different ways. I understand the finance minister stated today and i think hes in fayesor ofvor of a no. And we expect him to resign the day after the result on sunday. He told every Hedge Fund Manager dont worry. Its going to get scary but were going to get a deal done. Do you think he was honest . No i dont because i will remind you what happened a few months ago. I dont recall the exact date but he was campaigning or meeting people in greece and he didnt know that the cameras were on and he said to the people that were around him, you know oh how great of a job youre doing and he said i hope you guys continue to support us when we go for the rapture and it took days for him to explain what he meant but statement likes that prove there was a plan that they never fully revealed to the greek people. Thank you. Thank you for having me on the show. Continue doing what youre doing. Youre helping a lot. Thank you. Back to you guys. Thank you very much. Thats michelle live in athens covering everything happening with the greek situation there. When we come back this morning, well be talking to our nations Largest National commercial Real Estate Firm and find out which areas of the country are hot and which ones are not. Stay tuned. Squawk box will be right back. More and more, data is visual. In fact, the number of mris has increased by ten percent a year. And a radiologist might view a thousand images to find one tiny abnormality in shape, contrast or movement. Because its so challenging a Research Project is teaching ibm watson to see. In the future, it could help clinicians spot key patterns quickly and precisely. Ibm watson is working to make healthcare smarter every day. Want bladder leak underwear that moves like you do . Try always discreet underwear and move, groove, wiggle giggle, swerve, curve. Lift, shift, ride, glide hit your stride. Only always discreet underwear has soft dual leak guard barriers to help stop leaks where they happen most and a discreet fit that hugs your curves you barely feel it. Always discreet underwear so bladder leaks can feel like no big deal. Because hey, pee happens. Get your free pair and valuable coupons at always discreet. Com welcome back to squawk box ab everyone. Theres a new study out that finds were losing our ability to remember things. The internet is to blame. Researchers coined this digital amnesia. People arent committing things to memory because they trust a digital device to store and remember it. Not a big surprise anybody whos had cell phones for years. Do you remember phone numbers or do you just hit the button . Yeah. I worry you know i worry because i after jeopardy because im a loser. I like jeopardy. He thinks its square and nonmillennial. But theres things i know that i cant remember quickly. That takes you longer than before. Yeah. Like a lot of names. It scares me. Because i wonder is that one of the first signs of aging . Yeah. Or something worse. I figure its you have so much information stuffed in your head at some point, youre going to lose some of it. Its things i thought i knew pretty well. Like what . It could be anything. If you watch it youll see. I cant remember. In the meantime were going to talk about real estate. Perhaps its not all about location, location location anymore. Commercial Real Estate Investors are hunting for yield. And according to markets investors are looking to secondary markets like phoenix and minneapolis and denver. Ha hasim naji is here. Help us understand this. I think this says something about the markets there. And maybe were headed towards another bubble. Good morning. Thanks for having me on the program. Those are legitimate questions. And we get those questions from our clients all over the country all the time. Because in past cycles when the secondary locations, the market goes away to the degree it should be there. And that usually seems to be a sign of market correction. Were not seeing that in this cycle at all. Because the lending part of the equation is staying disciplined. Theyre wanting to finance more and more but the underwriting of the asset itself the buyer is staying disciplined given it wasnt too long ago when we had the financial crisis and overleveraging of commercial real estate. And so you couple that sorry. Go ahead, please. I was just going to say you couple that with the fact that you mentioned the job growth is beginning to broaden. Were seeing every metropolitan area add a lot of jobs with little, if any new construction. It gives us confidence were not heading for a bubble yet. Fair enough. If this was a baseball game what inning would we be in . A macro level for the whole industry, i would say maybe sixth, seventh potentially. But thats really kind of a generalization. If you look at commercial real estate as a whole in an asset class at a time when were seeing the job growth of 3 million jobs a year, pretty steadily happening, even for apartments. Diana olick in your segment mentioned earlier the supply side of a multifamily is not overzealous by any stretch of the imagination. Were not seeing any Office Buildings or anything like that. That really gives investors a lot of confidence. With yields that are incredibly competitive to where else you can put capital, and thats whats driving the market. Do any of the trends around where millennials are living these days both in terms of moving more towards cities away from suburbs, and the rent versus buying equation which is to say theyre still renting, does that have any impact on your business . It absolutely does. Weve seen a tremendous amount of new construction of urbantype products, midrise highrise in the sector. Pretty much the only type of multifamily being built these days. And a lot of the 20somethings are renting the small units. Mostly its the 30somethings that are getting the professional service jobs the number one job creating sector in the country and wanting to live in urban centers choosing to rent versus own. Were also seeing a lot of empty nesters that want to rent in urban areas. But that doesnt mean the workforce housing, the vast majority of rental product out there is also not very tight. I mean, those are pretty much fully occupied with good rent growth. People are opting to rent and not being able to qualify for home buying. The market in general is strong and part of the commercial real estate investment. Were in the sixth or seventh inning. We appreciate your time this morning. Thank you. Thanks. Coming up i was going to tell you about the top stories. Final jeopardy. This retailer recently closed 130 radio shack. Target. And it was so obvious. And we missed our mark and two persons missing. The champion got target. I remember that. Coming up, this mornings did they say target . I can remember that. Its like protagonist and novels, i know the names. Come on. Every Auto Insurance policy has a number. But not every Insurance Company understands the life behind it. Those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. Get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. Its jobs thursday. A key question on investors minds, will september rate hikes still be in play after todays employment report . Well break down the numbers straight ahead. Reaction to e the return to cuba. Carlos gutierrez outlines the path for relations that caught him by surprise. Dont leave for your july 4th vacation just yet. You need help with the grilling . No, thanks clark. Dont have one. Ill get the tongs. We will break down the cost of your holiday barbecue and talk gas prices before you hit the road. The second hour of squawk box begins right now. Live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is squawk box. Im okay with all metal all the time today. The knuckle head husband appearance on bone yard. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc. Beckys husband is going to be on at what time . 3 00 p. M. Today. On ozzys bone yard. And monday at noon. And july 4th on saturday. Has he ever jumped into a mosh pit that you know . Not that ive witnessed. Im sure he has. He hasnt told you about it. Im joe kernen with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. Markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Independence Day. So today were calling it jobs thursday. Expecting an increase of 233,000 in the nonfarm payrolls. And unemployment expected to tick down to 5. 4 . U. S. Equity futures at this hour have that to think about and also whats happening in greece. Seems like the last couple of days once you saw how dire the situation can get, it seems like something has to give for the greek people. Lets tell you about some corporate stories this morning as well. Tesla shares moving higher in premarket trading. Company about 500 model s sedans since the Second Quarter. Thats up from the previous quarter. Also xoom being bought by paypal. Thats a 21 premium to yesterdays closing price. Move comes ahead of paypals spinoff from ebay. And the next version of apples iphone 6 could offer better speeds and battery life. Thats based on elite photo. Shows a new qualcomm chip in a prototype. That could double the download speeds from the current iphone 6 models. Pretty awesome. And we were just talking about trains about 45 minutes ago. Developing story in tennessee to tell you about. This is not a passenger train. A csx train carrying a toxic gas partly derailed and fought fire this morning outside of knoxville. Seven officers were hospitalized after breathing in fumes from the blaze. More than 5,000 residents of maryville, tennessee, have been evacuated. The evacuation could last 48 hours. We will bring you updates as we get them on the situation. Greece is in a Holding Pattern until sundays referendum on austerity measures. Michelle carusocabrera joins us live once again from athens. What do you have to tell us about whats happening towards the vote on sunday . Well the country is in full Campaign Mode which well tell you more about in a second. I want to show you guys like i usually do show you the newspapers. This time im showing you a magazine. This is called crash political commentary magazine. Its always been called crash. Theyve got tsipras on the cover dressed as a kamikaze pilot. Heres a newspaper big screaming headline called what a shame. It shows the pensioners in line yesterday and a womans got an arm at her throat because shes trying to get her money and it was a melee at locations where the elderly were lined up for their money. And then this is a progovernment newspaper. And youve got pictures of Angela Merkel christine lagarde. And the headline says the engine of terror. So you can imagine the tonality here depending on what side of the question that youre on. So youve got two campaigns going on full tilt right now. Theres the ohi campaign. That is no. Thats encouraging greeks to vote no. The question on the ballot is about officially whether or not to accept a bailout agreement. Its a very complicated wordy question. And the yes advertisements as well. And the yes campaign is saying listen, this is about the future of greece. This is about whether or not to stay in the euro. And as the day goes on every big heavy hitter for the last 20 30 years of greek politics is coming out and making statements trying to sway the greek voters as we head into sunday guys. Its going to be a pivotal event for this country. Because european leaders have made clear if there isnt a yes vote theyre going to think really, really hard about whether or not theyre going to bother with further bailout negotiations with this current government thats in place. Back to you. Okay. Going to be interesting. On this threeday weekend, michelle. And not only different languages, dontly different alphabet. You wonder how hard that would be. Just hard. Lot of work. Anyway, greece may be rattling the markets. The monthly jobs report will be front and center today. We have chief Investment Officer at u. S. Trust bank of america private Wealth Management. How are you . Morning. What do you think today . Another 200,000plus number. Thats certainly been the trend. We dont get it every month, but thats the chance. Thats the best guess at this point. 80 . I wouldnt put it that high. Obviously if its not going to be september, its more likely to be later than earlier. Thats the best case right now. You could always be surprised. Thats certainly my forecast. Anything that could be totally unexpected today . I mean ethe First Quarter anything can happen with the employment reports. Two more before the september meeting. With Everything Else the numbers have to be weird. Its clear when you look at not just the adp number but jobless claims employment based tax receipts. Even the confidence number. Theyre all pointing to continued improvement and transmit over 200,000 a month. That doesnt mean we get that every month. And two more months before the september meeting. If we did 200plus today and then the next time they go in september. Thats the game plan of course if greece opens up of course the markets can change. Theres always other things. You think thats actually lets assume something doesnt work out correctly. Will the world blow up from that . I dont think so. Obviously the exposure directly is pretty minimal. Its all a question broadly. So im assuming its not a big deal for markets and it comes back to the labor market in particular. And we keep getting 200,000 a month in employment, employment comes down. And thats number one on the list. Whats the most important thing that is in the front of your mind in deciding what to tell clients to do with their money right now . Its twofold. First one is buy market liquidity. Its hard to get a handle on exactly what does that mean . Theres less liquidity today. Id point to this. If you look at the weighted average flow in terms of yield thats gone into bond market mutual funds since 2008 that number is 2. 75 . We hit the 2. 75 on the 10year yield sooner rather than later, thats that big rotation everyone is talking about from fixed income to Something Else. And that has reverberating event basically on the entire fixed income market. And then well see what the liquidity factor is. I think 2. 75 is a key number. Im with jim were in jim in terms of september. People trade out of that and go to stocks . No. Theyre going to the parking lot first. Theyll go from fixed income raise their cash allocations, get a little nervous. They havent seen this in a little while. Its picking up steam. Yields are rising. Then theyll make an assessment on where we are in the economy. And thats where the market place today has a little bit too much negativism out there. Wage gains are 2. 3 to 3 in terms of growth. Thats above the 10year yield. Thats why the fed really is hoping they can act in september. So you would tell clients buy american stocks at this point . Dont buy american stocks . Buy european stocks at this point . Lets take advantage of the market weakness in europe right now. On a hedge basis. You dont want to be 100 exposed to the currency. Japan is probably the greatest shareholder value story out there. Still . Still. Long way to go. Very much long way to go there. Not such a good longterm story as it relates to ten years because of the aging demographics. But in the next business cycle, a good story. Europe, we pick our spots. But the weakness is going to benefit the entire sector there. Even in a slowing china world. And last but not least on the u. S. Side more the small caps. The large caps are fairly valued. But thats using some very deeply depressed earnings numbers in 08. And we had now im stuck with you again. Who was it the other day to stay under 3 . Three years from now well still be under 3 . No way . This week. Yeah it was this week. It was somebody. Somebody did say that. Yeah. Whoever that may be is looking at a world that is stuck a moderation. Thats credible. He wasnt really saying in the 6 30 half hour, i think. Things will get better its just what our view of where Interest Rates are supposed to be will be different in the future because of the Larry Summers savings. Secular stagnation. Normally yields will likely being a lot lower than what were used to but higher than here. Because i took it as a positive. You dont have to worry about stocks ever being well i think if Economic Conditions are such that youre truly in a stagnation world, certainly in terms of potential growth and the stock market thats another thing, productivity growth is miscalculated right now. See im partial to french. Im very french youre parisian. Anyway thank you. Thank you. A little bit of deal news to tell you about. Another deal in the health care world. Centene Company Buying health net. The deal valued at about 78. 50 per share. 21 premium over yesterdays close. 26 premium if you do it on a june 1st basis. For which health net which focuses on medicaid services. Andrew, im sorry. I called your husband a knuckle head a couple times. That wasnt right to do. But he is informing me he jumped into a mosh pit with your brother at a megadeath concert. I didnt realize that. So wow. It was megadeath. It was a mosh pit and your brother was the enabler. They both did it. Brad goes with him to concerts. I dont. Oh its brad. Who do you think initiated the mosh pit . Matt. Okay. Wow. Coming up Carlos Gutierrez is going to be weighing in on the change in cuban policy that caught him by surprise. And then rick and steve are together in chicago. Live with their job predictions. We will let the fireworks begin before we ever get to july 4th. Speaking of fireworks, we have everything you need to know about food and gas prices ahead of your july 4th barbecues and road trips. Stick around. Weve got a lot more on this squawk thursday. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Americas First Embassy in havana in 54 years is expected to open later this month. Our next guest had had an evolving view since president obama announced renewed diplomatic ties with cuba. Carlos gutierrez is here. First joined us in december saying lets see how things are going to be going in six months. One year from now this could backfire in a very big way. He joined us again in may with a slightly different view. 20 years from now cuba will be a very different place, but the next two years there will be ups and downs. He recently wrote an oped supporting the policy in cuba. From a government to government perspective, there has not been so much communication between the United States and cuba in 50 years. I never expected negotiations to get this far. Carlos gutierrez is chair at the albright stone bridge group. Good morning to you. Good morning. We have now sort of walked through your revolving views. Given history and given the fact this has been tried by a lot of president s i think it was right to be skeptical because any time its been tried, it hasnt worked. Weve never gotten this far. And, you know, were opening up an embassy in havana in a few weeks. Something that we havent had since the early 60s. So this is real progress. Having said that its very gradual process. So theres still a long way to go but theres forward momentum. I think thats positive. Its been described the obama administrations policy on this has been described as a give everything for nothing policy. Do you agree with that view . Look its so early. This policy has been going on for a few months, right . It was announced on december 17th. The first meeting took place in january. So i find it interesting that we show a total lack of patience for a policy thats been around for a few months but were patient with a policy thats been around with a policy thats been around for 50 years. We need to give it time. We need to give it space and let things play out and let the talks continue. And when you think about it as a business prospect you know i know you said 20 years from now itll be a different place. Would you put money on the line in that country right now . I think you have to be very cautious. The first question is can you put money. Because the embargo is still in place. What the president has done is opened up some categories through executive action. So for example, you can supply small businesses. Youre able to supply construction materials. The question is does the cuban government have in place or does cuba have in place Distribution Systems to be able to get there. So at the beginning you have to be extremely cautious. You have to go very slow. At times you should think of this as establishing a brand to monetize it over the long haul. But no this isnt a this isnt go to havana and make a killing next year. Youve got to think longterm and be cautious. Is there a single event or issue . Did you talk to someone that youre close to or something that caused this change of heart . Because it sounds like a really big change from the last time you were on. And the people that arent in favor of this say that not one thing has been done in terms of asking for a change in the human rights policies in cuba or dissidents or anything we sort of look and suddenly im not hearing that from you. And give the administration patience. And its very early. This is 180 degrees from where we were. What was it that caused you to reevaluate . Thats fine. And thats a fair point. You know when you i was born in cuba. And thats the biggest story of my life is having left cuba in the revolution. There isnt a day that goes by that i dont think about this. You know there was a the cuban independence hero jose martine once said a mans responsibility is to be a man of his time. Maybe 20 30 years ago our policy was right for the time. I think that its time to look to the future. And if that does mean a change if it does mean saying im changing my point of view then thats fine. Is the important thing is to be people of our times. And i think the time calls for a new policy for a new vision for a new view. And other people that previously probably had said this shouldnt happen there seems to be a softening in a lot of places. Because maybe the progress does come, you know whether its slow at least, you know you cant do it from just not talking for 50 years or whatever. Mr. Secretary, theres been some speculation in terms of your evolution in views about whether you might want to become the ambassador. No. Is that something on your list of things to do . No no no. I cant say no a hundred times because theres no time. But the answer is absolutely no. I dont think about that. Im not doing this because why not . I have an alternative. Because its not on my mind. Id like to help cuban entrepreneurs. Id like to help people start a business. Id like to help them have a better life. Thats all im thinking about. And there are a lot of people in the Democratic Party who would make very good ambassadors. So if not you, who . Well we have one in there now jeff de laurence. The paper this morning mentioned chris dodd. There are a lot of people who could be ambassador to cuba. I think that will be taken care of but from my point of view thats the last thing on my mind. Im glad you asked that question. Okay. Mr. Secretary, we appreciate your time your perspective, and all your thoughts on cuba. We hope to continue this conversation with you as things progress there. Thanks. Thank you. If not you, who . What is that . Theres a great drink called yoo hoo. You dont remember it . Chocolatey water. If not you, who. I got it. Taking all the good things out of chocolate milk and leaving whats left. If you do something, it happens. Coming up on this jobs thursday, a new trailer for universals steve jobs movie hit the internet yesterday. Were going to show you the first look. Pretty awesome. Michael fassbender as apple founder. Next. A new season brings a new look. A chance to try something different. This summer, challenge your preconceptions and experience a cadillac for yourself. Take advantage of our summer offers. The 2015 cadillac ats, the sharper performance sedan. Lease this from around 269 per month. You total your brand new car. Nobodys hurt,but there will still be pain. It comes when your Insurance Company says theyll only pay threequarters of what it takes to replace it. What are you supposed to do, drive threequarters of a car . Now if you had a Liberty Mutual new car replacement, youd get your whole car back. I guess they dont want you driving around on three wheels. Smart. 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Heres a look at it. How come ten times in a day i hear jobs is a genius. What do you do . Musicians play their instruments. I play the orchestra. Okay. Thats deep. The movie is set for release by Universal Pictures in october. Jen ver universal is owned by cnbc Parent Company comcast. This was based on walters book . Well in fairness, itd be interesting to see what walter has to say. They optioned the book. Walter isaacson we should say. They did option that book. I think walter might say or others might say that Aaron Sorkins sort of taken the story in some other directions that go beyond the book. But its a movie. Theres a lot of people someone suggested you should play this person. You know, you could be insulted a lot of times. Like, i love Steve Wozniack and everything, but somebody said you should play Steve Wozniack i would i guess seth rogan. Whos insulted more at this point . What . Its great parts for great actors. What you think i look like him is what youre saying . If you say i would hope they would say i should play well all of us want to be cast. When you had too big to fail all of us wanted to be cast as someone famous and beautiful. Yeah. I get it. I wouldnt want to be cast as ben bernanke. What if they picked peewee herman, would you be happy . What . No. Put a bow tie on him. Nick nolte. After the dwi. Thank you. When we come back this morning, jobs predictions from cnbcs own blues brothers. Steve leisman and Rick Santelli. They are together in chicago. Let the fireworks begin. Well be right back. Ee in ten College Students drop out. But how can you spot whos at risk . The one who lives far from campus . The one who works the night shift . The one with new responsibilities . One thing cant tell you, but the right combination can. Universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom some expect to cut dropout rates by twentyfive percent. Ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. Xco0 welcome back to squawk box. This morning among the stories front and center centene is buying health net for about 6. 3 billion in cash and stock. Valued at about 78. 57 a share. Boeing is raising list prices by almost 3 . The cost of going into making the planes including higher wages and raising prices for materials. And the two top executives at whole foods are apologizing for overcharging customers. In a video statement, the coceos the chain came under fire after an investigation found several were mislabeling packaged goods and selling them for more than they were worth. Let me just say that joe has been put it down on the table so you can see what is going on. Joe had asked me to Say Something on the air which im not going to say on the air. I can get them the number. He literally kept putting 20 bills on the table while becky was speaking to up the ante. He tries to take them back and i snatched them at the last minute. Now theyre mine. Check this out. 30 Rockefeller Plaza has officially a new name. I because i work for comcast, i think the peacock looks cool. Im keyeping the money. Then you know what youve got to do. The building known as 30 rock will now be known as the comcast building. It was illuminated last night adding the comcast logo to the new york city skyline. Why now . On july 1st 1941 30 Rockefeller Plaza was home to the firstever commercial television broadcast. And i think that nbc right now the nbcu part of comcast is an equal sort of a partner. Very profitable. Comcast, the cable operations do great. But its been a great merger. Yeah, i dont feel like a junior partner of comcast. I dont either. Doing great. So its jobs day. Polled forecasters expect an increase of 233,000 in nonfarm payrolls and the Unemployment Rate to tick down. 1 to 5. 4 . For more on todays jobs numbers, lets get to our dynamic duo in chicago. They look like theyre doing fine there. Rick santelli joins us from the cme along with Steve Leisman. This is nice. You know theres a fine live between love and hate. Careful, joe. Careful. Come on joe. Careful. Where are you going with this . Where are you going with this . Dont give me a brokeback cme over here. Thats not what we were talking about. Not that theres anything wrong with that. You guys batman robin. Sorkin and kernen. Youve had your moments. But deep down theres a respect and a love as colleagues. Abbott and costello. Whos on first, rick . Rick i got a flag tie on too today. Stan fisher. Whats that joe . I have a flag tie on today as well. Do you . God bless america. Happy birthday america. My favorite holiday. It is my favorite holiday. Were going to talk about that at some point today as well. So, rick ill let you start. Id love to start something with you guys standing right next to each other. Im trying to figure out how i can do it. What do you make of the numbers today, rick . Listen. I think that we are improving. I think the jobs picture is definitely improving. But i think the reality is that theres something deficient. Theres something that isnt quite right in whether we alter numbers or change how we calculate numbers. Its not going to bring back that loving economic feeling again. And i think whats wrong is that a good chunk of the prosperity has been relegated to a select few. And thank god they have to pay some taxes and we have record tax revenues. That wasnt the area of growth id like to see do better. And i think to get more on a path to get the kind of growth historically that we need to get back over 3 3. 5 4 i think we need more productive use of whats going into the sausage machine. And i think obamacare, top of the list. Nobody ever talks about it. 90 of my emails whenever we get in this conversation is why isnt anybody talking about obamacare. But it doesnt end there. You know the government cant control everything. My analogy is whats wrong with this country . What would be what . The seventh largest economy in the world, california cant even understand the notion that if they want their water, alls they have to do is allocate a scarce resource the good Old Fashioned way. Market forces. Supply and demand. Let the price move. I might be able to start it. Bring davis back what he did with electricity is what theyre doing with water. Steve and i got into it a little. Steve has the answer to this. And it all has to do with too much money flowing to shareholders and ceos and not enough money going to the workers. Thats his answer to why things arent right. And that little bit both of us joe youre misstating it but okay. But the answer of what is wrong is 180 degrees apart. What you just said is anathema to steve. Right . This isnt too much government. Its not enough government. What youre stated i stated as a statement i stated as a question. I said theres an issue right now. And that issue is its a question as to how much money is flowing to corporate profits. And what you have is you have record corporate profits. By the way, at this time when everybody you interview on that set there complains about how miserable Business Conditions are, theyre making more money than they ever have. Because they have 0 Interest Rates, steve. No joe. Yes, it is thats why. Businesses normally do. Otherwise wed have a lot of wage growth. Wed have a lot of unemployed people. 3 million americans are employed this year to last year. They are doing that. Got to get back to where we were before. Yeah no. Were only 5 million away. Be fair, joe. So lets be clear here joe. Profits arent well being. Thats not what makes for a good economy. Just looking at business. Thats what youve been saying for the last ten years is profitability being let me just finish the point. The point is the data show that wage growth has not kept place with productivity growth. And that is something that over some period of time do. Are there other issues out there why that is the case . Global dynamics. When are people going to wake up . Fine. Its not unique to the United States. Its not unique to japan. Its not. What we have is if you look at the old Charlie Chaplin movie where the guy is in the Assembly Line with the big wrench. If you think youre going to get a big living wage putting that bolt on an Assembly Line wrong. But youre the one that started about inequality. I never talked about that. Right. But its not inequality. Its policy. They want it this way. Why does policy create this dynamic . If all these people will let me think. Can you borrow at zero . I can. Can you get a mortgage and borrow at zero . I can. Can you lend to your friends and borrow at zero . I dont know. Maybe. I rest my case. Okay. So youre saying its the inability of people to borrow is why we have inequality . No. Its the inability of the market and the economy to make it to carry its water on its own. Okay . Seven years of a calibration of zero interest rating with five years of a calibration to a 30 hour workweek. I came all the way to chicago and we have the same argument weve always had. Its not an argument. These are facts why raising rates we need to raise enough money to give airfare to the fomc to take them to disney world. Hey, guys can you see air down there . Can you see us . No. You were missing out. Now do what you were doing while they were arguing. I was like this. And then i was conducting. Joe, steve, and i are all on the same page. We can agree that things arent right. Where we go wrong is how they get fixed. Thats right. I think he likes the greek model and i like the fourth of july model i dont like the greek model. Would you give me a break here. Lets stick to problems where we all agree. Just because you wear a tie go ahead, becky. Sorry. God, this is so good. Steve, why are you youre in chicago to do the dead. Lets talk about something we agree on. Which is music. We both love music. Im not a grateful dead fan. I always thought when he was going to talk about the grateful dead, we were going to talk about greece so i was wrong. But i do love zz top. Lets go. Im here because theres a big grateful dead show. Theyre doing their final three days. Im going to anchor the aftershow. We have a few economic points here. Let me see if i can get to it here. Okay. Not there, not there. Whatever it is. We have 2. 6 times the occupancy, airbnb looking for places. You can go rent a boat for 1500 bucks and go up to soldier field, stay there. Walk into the shows. Average ticket price 650 to 750. Theyre saying maybe 50 million to 100 million infusion. You have taste of chicago this weekend but in general people leave chicago. I know youre out of time but i want you to say why is this happening in my kind of town. Why is this happening in chicago . Its a bit of a sad story, but its jerry garcia did his last show here. Its sad a legend passed away but his music lives on and chicago is an integral part of that. We had drinks last night with the crew. Theyre all set up and ready to go. People are starting to come in. What i dont know, guys and you know how this works. Theres 80,000 tickets a nighttimes three is 240,000. But it could be the same 80,000 coming three nights a row. Thats how the deadheads work. I dont know. Just monitor the vw buses. Well figure it out. Weve got got to wrap it up. This has been an enormous amount of fun here. Yeah. You had drinks last night with the crew. Drinks with the crew. Can they hug at least . Theyre good. Would you guys stop it. Get back to your show. Drinks with the grateful dead crew. Is that what they call them . Yeah. Guys we will see you back its edible too. Edible drinks. Edible and smokeable drinks. I dont know what you two have been up to. We here are getting ready for the Holiday Weekend. Jane as well as has the cost on your Independence Day barbecue. She has fireworks fun for us. Stick around for that. And also the breakdown of the gas prices before your road trip. Squawk box will be right back. The life behind it. Those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. Get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. singing you wouldnt haul a load without checking your clearance. So why would you invest without checking brokercheck . Check your broker with brokercheck. When you get up to 50 off thousands of hotels with travelocity it means you can also afford to get up to 50 epicer epic rides. Making it the place to find a place for summer escapes. Go and smell the roses. Welcome back everybody. The Independence Day weekend is quickly approaching. Joining us right now to analyze the everpopular july 4th barbecue the woman herself jane wells who is up early and has some surprises in store. Jane, good early morning. Hey. Hey. Becky, its not every morning at 4 40 you can hold a beer and light a firework. Dont get too close. My neighbors will be so happy. Is this legal . You might not be able to do this in drought stricken california but its legal in a lot of places like where i am right now. Although only a few cities have canceled their fireworks celebrations this year. One being in cupertino where apple is. Here we go. The Association Says were going to spend 675 million on fireworks this year. It could be more because its going to be on a saturday. And as for retailer says that so far they have seen no impact on sales here in california despite the tinder dry conditions. Listen. Well i just think people need to use common sense. Youre not going to smoke a cigarette while youre putting gas in your car, so i wouldnt light fireworks in a dry field or next to a dry bush. This is amazing. I hope they dont call the cops. As for barbecue the American Farm bureau says the average barbecue is going to cost 5. 58 a person. That is down 3 . However, when you throw in the beer, the fixings, the party the fireworks, its actually up a 5 . And the average household is going to spend almost 350 this year. Going to spend just a billion dollars alone on beer. And i better get in before they call 911. Yeah. Run away. Run away jane. Way to wake up your neighbors and thank you for joining us. There she goes. We got to let her get out of here. Happy fourth. Americans have saved a collective ton of money. Added up to 65 billion on lower gas prices just in the First Six Months of the year. As we go into the busiest driving Holiday Weekend in years, the global head of Energy Analysis joins us. Tom, thanks for being here today. Nice to be here. So we know that gas prices are lower than they were a year ago. Whats that mean in terms of people getting out, getting out driving, and what can we expect this Holiday Weekend . If you believe the numbers, were actually probably driving about 6. 5 more in the last four weeks. And this is the busiest driving season. More people driving since maybe 2007. Even with the more efficient cars. The problem is i dont think it will last forever. Why . Low prices or the driving . I think the low prices are going to last a long time. I think they will. What will happen though and one of the reasons why prices are low is that demand is going to drop after labor day. Theres no catalyst to drive demand. So i think its going to be a cheap summer. Well probably have to wait through july and make sure you sweat out hurricanes and so forth. And i think its going to be a very cheap fall. A cheap fall too. I think well see prices close to 2 in all of those places you saw last january. Is that a reflection of the supply picture . Yeah. I mean weve got a lot of crude. The iraqis are pumping more oil than ever. The saudis are pumping more oil. Libya is getting its act together. If these iranian talks next week really result in an agreement, it will probably throw another half Million Barrels a day to the market next winter probably when we need them least. Some of the big integrated Oil Companies are pushing to make sure not just the big integrated companies but the local drillers here too are pushing to make sure that we try and change the laws to export crude oil from here. What do you think about that . I probably think that that becomes an issue in 2070. I cant see somebody winning a state like pennsylvania or ohio and going toex port oil. Because it really does put them at a disadvantage. I think it will be a topic a couple years from now. But theyre point has been that the refineries here are set up a huge number of them are set up to take the crude coming from overseas and refining that crude. Thats why you have an abundance of crude here that cant even be processed. Yeah. Well do a bunch of swaps. We can process much of the crude now. Were going to get mexican heavy crude and probably swap some light shale crude for that. And thatll happen. The price difference between u. S. Numbers and International Numbers right now doesnt support it. Its been 20, 25 in the last few years. Now its only 4 or 5. Thank you for coming in. Happy july 4th. Coming up dont leave for vacation just yet. The jobs number is coming up at 8 30 eastern time. Weve got predictions after the break at the top of the hour. But first well talk about a makeover for bubble wrap. Stick around for that. My kids love it. I love it. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Bubble wrap is getting a makeover. And its not looking poppy. Sealed air corps, the original seller of the Packing Material is rolling out a revamped version of its signature product. Its going to be called ibubble wrap which i would sue immediately if i were tim cook. And looks the same as the original except theres a difference. The bubbles dont burst. Theyre columns. Wait a second. My kids are going to hate this. Ships in giant preinflated rolls and takes up a lot of room in delivery trucks and warehouses. Buy the pump. Its in columns. You pump it up yourself once you get it. Amazon does that now. They send the air pocket things. And you can still stomp on them. Overall sales have been declining. I dont know why. The pleasure you get from doing that is remarkable. Can i just tell you one group of people very close to me that dont like this at all is my German Shepherd and the maltipoo. You let her walk across it and she runs off. She doesnt like fireworks. Thats twisted. It is. But they dont know whats happening. Its like fireworks for them. So we dont have bubble wrap anymore anymore. But you like it. You want to take this home . Yes. My kids are going to go crazy. You see the thunder by the way, its good for me. Rough for dogs the thunder the other night. Coming up the jobs report more than 30 minutes away. Our panel will give protections. Tevin hasset and mark zandi. Well stop doing that eventually. We live in a pick and choose world. Choose choose choose. But at bedtime . Why settle for this . Enter sleep number. Dont miss the lowest prices of the season going on now. Sleepiq technology tells you how well you slept and what adjustments you can make. You like the bed soft. Hes more hardcore. So your sleep goes from good to great to wow only at a sleep number store. Right now, save 300 to 700 on select mattress sets, plus 36month special financing. Ends monday know better sleep with sleep number. Are you moving forward fast enough . Everywhere you look, it strategy is now business strategy. And a partnership with hp can help you accelerate down a path created by people, technology and ideas. To move your company from what it is now. To what it needs to become. Fireworks ready to fly. Breaking this hour the jobs report. The numbers, the Market Reaction, and what this could all mean for the feds next move. Greek standoff. Citizens heading to the polls in greece this weekend. The vote could determine the future of the euro. And on this jobs day, a big question for california legislators. Should pro sports cheerleaders be called employees . Its a story that impacts businesses well beyond the gridiron. The final hour of squawk box begins right now. Live from the most powerful city the the world, new york, this is squawk box. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc first in business worldwide. Im joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. Big story of the morning in addition to the ebb and flow in greece is the jobs report. Because its a thursday its weird. Were off tomorrow so were doing the jobs report today. Hiring is likely. It appears to have maybe cooled a bit because it reached a fivemonth high in may. We dont know that for sure. Still looking far strong number. Polled forecasters said the economy likely added 233,000 jobs in june while the Unemployment Rate dipped to 5. 4 . Futures ahead of the report after that day yesterday where it started out strong on positive comments from greece. Then the comments got negative yesterday and it never really went all the way back down even though some of the stuff that happened earlier where they were Getting Along Better that sort of evaporated earlier. Were not doing anything until after the referendum anyway. But did close up 130 yesterday. Up 33 today. Still down for the week because of the 350 point drubbing we had earlier on. We could make that today and make it a positive week. Could. It has been not only a rough week or month actually, rough first half of the year with the markets. Theyve gone nowhere for most of that time. Were also taking a look at a few other big stories investors will be talking about today. As joe mentioned, greece. Negotiations between athens and creditors are off. At least for now. At this point everything is in a Holding Pattern on the countrys future referendum on sunday. A yes vote by greek citizens would back austerity measures. A no vote could trigger greeces exit from the eurozone. Thats according to some german officials and others. Saying they dont necessarily trust them. Thats a long way of whats happened. So this vote on sunday is going to be key. Merger news continues centene buying health net. Its a 21 premium over yesterdays closing price. Also a bit of ipo news as well. The owner of univision going public. They extended a contract with the biggest provider of Spanish Language tv content to at least 2030. Randy falco, the ceo, congratulations to him. Those guys have owned this. They sort of bought it at the top of things back in 2006 or 07. Now paying off. Randy falco who we know well. You werent here then. I was not. Has it wlr been ten years . It hasnt had it . Tesla up 52 from a year ago in deliveries. Although thats a Slower Growth rate than in the prior quarter. Digital money transferring company xoom is being bought by paypal. 21 more than yesterdays closing price. I guess it would have to be cash. They dont have currency yet. They will have currency right . They dont yet. So it would have to be cash. We should bring you uptodate on breaking news just coming out. According to wire reports, it says that the u. S. Park police are responding to reports of an active shooter another the navy yard in washington. No other details available at this point. They have not been able to verify this report, but again this is the navy yard which is a military installation. You remember 12 people were killed there back in 2013. All on watch for july 4th because of a stated intention by some of our enemies to try and do something this weekend here. We will keep you up to date on this story here as we get headlines. Thats what we know right now. In the meantime we are half an hour away from the june jobs report. Lets get to our panel to get their thoughts. Joining us is mark zandi kevin hassett, and Austan Goolsbee. Gentlemen, welcome to all of you. Mark, why dont we pick up with you because you saw what happened yesterday with the adp numbers. Just wonder what you think this means in terms of todays. Well adp was 237. Throw in 10 15k for Government Employment that gets you to 250. 250 is the average monthly job growth over the last 12 18 months. I think the trend underlying job growth, it will be up and down month to month. 3 million a year. Thats a decent number. More than decent. Thats about as good as it gets. We got 3 million last year. Then go back to 1999 in the middle of the Technology Boom to get 3 million jobs. And all kinds of jobs. Low paying jobs yes, but also a lot of middle and high pay jobs. This is not just a couple of industries doing well. Right. Everybody but energy is booming. The different between marks model and my model is mine allows more momentum. I think the 4 is into the Second Quarter. I think the Second Quarter is looking close to 3 . I think that the booming second half is starting now. I think that will take a lot of the pressure off of the fed as we go into the fall. Austan would you characterize it as a booming second half . Boy, i hope these guys are right. I as you know have been a little more pessimistic on the gdp job growth. And i still think its going to be an improvement, but not that strong. But i think were turning a corner in which i think the consensus is about right. And thats still pretty decent. You know 230 im going to guess 232. Thats still pretty decent job growth well over 2. 5 million a year. And as mark said these are kind of historic levels of job growth. So are you shaking off some of that pessimism . Yeah im shaking it off somewhat. Im not ready to jump all the way in the hassett and zandi vote. What does that tell us about where were headed and what happens here . Theres been a lot of kind of doom and gloom. We read the headlines, we see whats happening in greece. We worry about the slowdown in china and europe. How that affects us back here. Youre saying kind of shake it off for now . I still think those things are going to weigh on us. I dont think were going to truly unleash the beast to fly through the air like the dragon in the game of thrones. I dont think were too that point. But i just think were getting a little bit up off the floor going from measly to modest if you will. Mark you seeing any dragons right now . Well i think austan put his finger on the dragon thats trade. The strong dollar the weaker global economy. But, you know i think this train has a lot of momentum and its going to take a lot to derail it. Feels like were in pretty good shape. Look at greece. I mean thats if thats whats going to get thrown at us, we can digest that pretty easily, i think. And the one thing thats really going to kick in and give us that juice, you know get into that 300,000 kind of job number is housing. We talked about that yesterday. The Housing Market is now undersupplied. Vastly undersupplied. You can see it in rent growth which is accelerating. And house price growth. So we need a lot more housing construction. And thats a lot of jobs. One thing that could really upend the whole thing though. If the greece problem explodes and theres a difference in euro, it could. Everybody is worried about a financial collapse because of greece. But if the euro all of a sudden makes the dollar a lot stronger, 10 , 20 stronger that was a big negative for the economy could hit us right away. Look whats happened the last few days. Go ahead, austan. It usually takes some time for a high dollar to have an impact. It doesnt just happen right away. So still got some of that negative coming down the pipe from the increase in the dollar over the last, you know, eight or ten months. Whys it taken so long . It feels like an extension on how long its taken to fill some of those jobs. I mean if you look at job openings, that is 5. 4 million. Go back a year ago, it was 4. 4 million. The number of job opening positions to the labor force is at a record high. So a lot of things are going on. Thats the good news. But i thought the duration was longer now. And thats part of it. Open positions are just staying open longer and people are posting more open positions. Some of it is some jobs mismatching. I mean people out there looking for work dont have the skills. Part of it is i think what id call pickiness of employers. So theres this fad part of big Multinational Corporation and i listen to people that skon sul tants that come in on resourcing. Like everything, theres fads to this Human Resource consolidating. And that is dont hire anybody until youre absolutely positively sure. Do you think before culturally we were more inclined to take a risk on somebody . Absolutely. We could take them in and see if it worked out. But now the thinking is that you shouldnt do that. And the one place you see it where theyre not doing that is with recent College Grads. You can toss him away. But if you hire a 30yearold, then youre making a kind of commitment to them. So College Grads the last couple of years are back to having a great job market. And so this is more of a middle kind of thing. Were going to continue this conversation in just a moment. Again on that breaking news we told you about before u. S. Military officials are now telling nbc news that there have been reports of gunshots heard at the navy yard. However, there is no confirmation that an active shooter is present or any shots were fired. Theyre still attempting to clarify some of those initial reports. U. S. Defense and military Officials Say the navy yard right now is on lockdown and theyre sheltering in place based on the unconfirmed shooter at this point. Hopefully there isnt. But everybody is a little on edge. Coming up it is jobs day. That means that Mary Thompson is going where the jobs are. She joins us next with a look at hot employment creators in the sharing economy. Think uber. Squawk box will be right back. Verizon say neversettle. Tmobile agrees. Never settle for verizons overpriced gimmicks. Try the uncarrier riskfree for 14 days youll love it, or well pay for you to go back. Xco0 welcome back to squawk box. A bill waiting for the california governors signature would classify cheerleaders for statebased Pro Sports Team as employees. That follows lawsuits for labor violations in several states including california. And i guess i just read a headline or something that fast food workers can make more than cheerleaders. I read something about that too. Just an excuse to show pictures of cheerleaders . Maybe. Someone with that kind of mind might think that. This was a Serious Business story you wanted to tell us about . I just do what im told. Youre free to take this wherever you want to go. Im not going anywhere with it. Were going to talk about a different issue in hiring. Hiring showing signs of heating up. But todays numbers may not tell the story. Mary thompson has more on where the jobs are this morning. Hey, andrew. Dont count them out. Their numbers are growing. For a growing number of people parttime work is taking the place of a fulltime job. We have 30,000 taskers across the u. S. And the uk. The trend toward freelancing fueled by workers wishing to manage their own schedules, the growing acceptance of the odd jobs site task rabbit. A study estimate this prnl of workers doing some kind of freelance work will increase to 40 from the current estimate of 33 . Its a trend task rabbit ceo sees driving growth in her business. So i feel like weve barically scratched the surface with what task rabbit has delivered to date. Were live in 20 cities across the u. S. London is our First International market. We get emails from people every day all over the world asking when task rabbit is going to launch in their area. For 90 of its taskers, though she says they work these jobs to pay two or three bills a month. Only 10 of the taskers make it their fulltime gig earning up to 6,000 a month. So whats it like to make parttime work your fulltime job . Well have that story coming up on power lunch when we take a look at the day in the life of a tasker. Thats coming up on power lunch later today. Andrew, back to you. Thank you for that. When we come back the countdown to the employment report, it is on. Youre looking at a live shot of the official Labor Department clock right there. Were going to get final predictions from our Panel Straight ahead. We are turning our attention back to our jobs panel now for their final predictions this morning ahead of the 8 30 announcement. Joining us once again a mark zandi, kevin hassett, and Austan Goolsbee. Also Rick Santelli and Steve Leisman in person together if you can believe that. So lets go around the horn. Youre right here. Do i have to hold this up . Get your paddles out. Its not a paddle. What is it . Its a sign. Paddle sounds like a frat initiation. Sometimes it feels that way. Mr. Zandi, what you got . 250k. You have to show it. I did. Heres the big number. Hard for us to see that. 5. 4 unemployment. The trifecta. The key number is the wage growth. If we get 3. It will continue to accelerate. Thats pretty wimpy writing there. Say it loud and proud. I have a lot of information on this. Kevin, sir . I said it loud and proud. 270. I even said it in korean. I love that. Wow. You can say it in korean now. No. 270. So weve got to go to mr. Goolsbee. Do you have a sign . I have a paddle. When you told me you were going to send me an implement, i thought it was going to be some miniaturized jumbotron. I didnt know it was going to be a paint stick. I wanted to make a prediction everyone could agree on. There you go. Joe is nuts. But 232 is going to be our answer. Wow. I got something for you in a second, too, austan. Im liking this. We got to get to Rick Santelli and leisman in person who are either hugging or beating each other. Guys . Mine is 229. But happy birthday jack benny plus 200 to america as well. I got the lightning bolt here for the dead. You see that . Okay. 214. All right. Im going and you told each other beforehand or didnt . Had no idea. No idea. Now lets put these paddles to work shall we . I have a quick prediction. Im going to say 287k. 287 . You want me to go before you do . Yeah. Im going big. Go big or go home people. 300k. Last time i did 8679305. This was easy though. On today. Theres only one number worth talking about today. And thats 1776. But i dont want to just combine this just to one group of people and for people like Austan Goolsbee and others ive got their favorite day here as well. And that is april 15th. As Ronald Reagan once said republicans believe every day is july 4th. He told me this. However, democrats wish every day was april 15th. You got that from the musical right there . Yeah. When you listen to Lee Greenwood do you get i have chills. I get teary. I really do. I dont know why. Its for fireworks. It is. But on april 15th we know what song to play dont we . I produced this whole thing. I even have tax man ready to go. Now i understand. You wanted tooed the finale by holding up 300k. Im hoping for good news. Austan do you know whos talking to you . Do i know . Joe. Hes always talking. No right now. Do you know who i am . No. I cant see you. Come on say it. Say it. Say my name. Oh its becky. What do you mean . You havent responded to me on twitter all morning. Ive been trying to get you to say my name. Oh i was going to send back the lyrics from that song say my name but i thought people would get the wrong idea if i did. Beyonce song . Whats going on here . Got to follow along on twitter. Separate show takes place. Ive got to go look. I dont know whats happening here. This double screen thing, youre supposed to keep the people watching on tv. Got two shows going on. Well refer back and forth between them. When you come back this morning, it is time. June jobs report is here. The numbers, the instant analysis, and the big question. Whats it all mean for the fed. Right now as we head to a break, look at the u. S. Equity futures. These have been higher all morning long. Dow futures up by 35 points. And the nasdaq up by 11. 5. Stay tuned. Squawk box will be right back. Every Auto Insurance policy has a number. But not every Insurance Company understands the life behind it. Those who have served our nation have earned the very best service in return. Usaa. We know what it means to serve. Get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. Im proud to be an american where at least i know im free and i wont forget the men who died who gave that right to me welcome i dont know why. Because i cant because austans not here. I play this song on april 15th. Right. Patriotic. Welcome back to squawk box. Were Just Moments Away from the release of the june employment report. The futures have been up about 30 for most of the session. Thats about the same now. 28 points or so. Nice day yesterday. Up 350. Was it greece was it another number . Do we want a good number . Or if its too good does that mean its definitely september and the market gets nervous again . Our guy that gives us the great number is hampton pearson. Lets get to him. 223,000. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 220,000. The Unemployment Rate is 5. 3 . Hourly earnings no change. Weve had significant downward revisions for april and may. The combined downward revisions, 60,000 fewer jobs for the last two months than what was previously reported. June job gains, professional and Business Services up 64,000. Health care plus 40,000. Retail trade plus 33,000. The Unemployment Rate how did we get there . Both employment and unemployment declined. The real story, perhaps, from this report the Labor Force Participation rate. Coming in at 62. 6 . A drop of. 3 in just one month. And the lowest since october of 77. In part a statement from the bls commissioner talks about the decrease in june. On a not seasonably adjusted basis. In june it was unusually low compared with prior years. The other piece of news today, weekly jobless claims. The four week moving average, 274,000 plus 1,000. Back to you. All right. That is probably what you would think. Lets get back to our panel. Kevin and austan and steve and rick. Did anyone hit who was closest . I think rick was lower. I was pretty close. I reversed by digits. Otherwise i got the number. Likely story. Actually wouldnt leisman get it at 214 . Rick was off by six. I was off by nine. So im going to give it to rick. If you cant go over then i win. But i think being within six is pretty damn good. Thats what i think. But lets talk about the report. I mean i think some of the internals were a little soft. The downward revisions. But just in context what you did to may is went down to 254. Down still a strong number. Average weekly hours the same. The earnings are a problem, but they kind of balance out. I guess they revised down what we had. Were still in an environment of lackluster earnings. Heres the earnings thing. Remember the excitement everybody went nuts. Exactly. And the problem is whenever you get anything good its always the turning point. Whenever you get anything that slightly disappoints, its hard to draw a conclusion from one number. I call it the trampoline effect. Heres my problem with this entire series of numbers and the idea of mr. Zandis 5 million down. We put a trampoline here okay . Everything is fine tuned so that we get the best recovery you can. Zero Interest Rates, liquidity, and fire hoses all around the globe from china back to the United States. But when you jump on the ground versus a trampoline shouldnt you jump higher on a trampoline . Shouldnt your bounce be higher . Were not getting it. But this trampoline weve been bouncing on were not bouncing any higher. Plus when you add in a horrible recession, we should have even bounced more when you added in the trampoline. And this is the contention i have. Is that all the things that were doing that have a price down the road in the future havent really given us the type of economic complexion that they anticipated seven years ago. Let me first respond, rick. If you need to do 120,000 wait wait. Let me hear him. Go on. My thing is i agree with rick. You would want the trampoline to be bigger. But that doesnt mean we should dive head first into the ground and ask the fed to raise rates. Crazy. I want the trampoline gone. I would disagree. Raising rates now seems crazy, i agree with you. Okay . But when you look at where rates are and where theyve been it doesnt seem so crazy. And its not the idea of raising rates. Its the idea of an economy standing on its own two feet without a dozen or a dozen and a half people thinking that they can run the mouse trap better. Thats my contention. 3 million jobs rick. 3 million jobs is what we created last year. And even with todays number it doesnt matter how many we created it only matters how many people are working that can work and how many people were working before the crisis hit. Okay . So what . 5 Million People that disappeared, you dont care about them . Of course we do. A lot of them retired, rick. A lot of them retired at age 50 because they couldnt find Something Else. A thats what happens. The only way to make it better is to create jobs and thats what the economy is doing. Who creates them . This is where you and i will always go off the path. No. The government picks on the Airline Industry yesterday. What do they want them to do . Run it like amtrak how could they have the audacity, how did you get here . Was your flight on time . Perfect. I rest my case. What are you talking about . Oh collusion. The government doesnt understand why airfares are roughly the same . Jeez google any product on the planet and then google the competition. You think their price is eight times higher . Lets get back to the job market. We created 3 million jobs last year. Todays number were on track to create another 3 million. Weve had decent job growth well be back to full employment where we havent been in ten years by this time next year. You know thats a trampoline thats working pretty good. 3 million a year full employment, come on. Let me give you one number which is we probably need to create 100,000 jobs a month to take care of the influx into the workforce and start to improve the Unemployment Rate. Actually its more. You have to factor in the Labor Force Participation rate. If your population has grown x and it only satisfies a certain percentage, you need to bring that back down again. The job market is working at double the rate it needs to work to bring down the Unemployment Rate. Thats what happened. Its come down in part because of the decline of participation. Deep down inside you know 5. 6 is the real Unemployment Rate. [ overlapping speakers ] boy, but were happy. You think if the American People really knew that 10. 5 is really the Unemployment Rate you think theyd be shocked . Can i add some numbers to the conversation . No, if you want to talk you have to come to chicago. Sorry. Look. To absorb the growth in the working age population assuming a stable Labor Force Participation rate. We need between 100 and 125,000 jobs per month. Underlying job creation is currently 250k. Thats double the pace and then some of what we need to absorb the growth in the working age population. [ overlapping speakers ] so the puzzle it will take five to seven years at current rates. Austan what did you say . Look gdp is growing at a rate, lets call it 2. 5 . The job market has been growing at a rate that sort of corresponds with maybe 3. 5 were, 4 . So is it going to go up to where the jobs are or jobs come down to where the gdp is . Youre hung up on the gdp number. The gdp number right now its growing 3 . Year over year through q1 its 3 . But my sense is that the gdp growth is understating the growth in the economy. That when the revisions come in and theyre all in were going to see theres a lot more gdp growth out there. Thats what im saying. Believes tracking 3 . Look at the last seven years. Were averaging less than 2. 5 . Where do you get tracking . Thats where i think the jobs numbers [ overlapping speakers ] the reason were having this meeting right now, all of us is that this number is really important. It blips up and down from month to month, but probably the best realtime read on how the economys doing out there. Its not a perfect read but its the best that we have is the jobs number. The jobs number is like gdp and productivity. Gdp is a different thing. Theyve got trade that revises and so on. The but the jobs number is the best glimpse we have at a moment in time. And not inconsistent with 3 growth. I agree with that. If it was 300, what would our chicago friends be saying right now . Life is fixed and everythings better or are we still worried about something . If were worried about something, its the people that left the labor force. But 223,000 doesnt deserve zero Interest Rates in its seventh year. Now youre talking about both sides of your mouth. I am huh . Earlier you said 10. 5 . If thats high why wouldnt you have a low Interest Rate . Right. And thats what we have mr. Market for. To define that in an aggregate way opposed to having stan fisher pick winners and losers. Janet yellen pick winners and losers. Did you really listen to that press conference you attend snd frightening, frightening, frightening these are the group picking the winners and losers. Wait a second. Either you put on a Gold Standard or you have a committee to pick a rate. Whats your call here . You want go back to the Gold Standard . I wish we could, but we cant. Why do you want to go back to it . Okay. Its not about the Gold Standard. Its about training wheels. Its about whole societies having training wheels. Thats what its about. O earthquake. See, the one thing good. Im so focused on your airline quote but collusion is okay. I didnt say anything about airlines joe, i didnt say anything. By somebody who flies a lot too. Im not going to let you get away with that. I didnt say anything about airlines. I didnt say collusion. He said collusion. I looked at andrew and said im glad youre here. I appreciate andrew sometimes. Joe, you put a lot of words in my mouth and i dont say anything. But im not going to let you get away with this one. Used the word collusion after he said Airline Flights to chicago. Thats what happened. Theres a mixup. Okay. I apologize, steve. Oh thats nice joe. Love all around now. Collusion is more about, you know, Democratic Candidates and email servers. Turn on your love light, dude. Okay . I will. Your margaritas were 18 a piece, leisman. Thanks for dinner the other night. That was a good time my friend. You knew i was going to work it in somehow and get payback. You have a lovely family which is a little bit strange. But your kids are turning out pretty darn good. We all know that. Thank you for being here. When we come back this morning, Market Reaction to todays jobs numbers. We have Richard Bernstein joiningjoin joining us next. And later, a baseball player that hasnt stepped on the diamond in years but hes making more than plenty of the current players who are playing right now. We have that story straight ahead. When youre not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. Thats where at t can help. With Innovative Solutions that connect machines and people. To keep your internet of things insync, in realtime. Leaving you free to focus on what matters most. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Job growth slowing last month, but the economy still added 220,000 nonfarm payrolls. The futures right now looking at the board, dow higher about 58. Nasdaq up about 19 points. For more insight on how the market might react to the jobs numbers, we have Richard Bernstein joining us right now. Richard, those numbers are about the highest weve seen all morning when we look at the indexes. This was a slightly weaker than expected number, but still pretty decent. Yeah. Its kind of a goldilocks number. Not too hot, not too cold. You thought the fed would rush to raise rates when you look at the overall data here. Not in any rush to raise rates. Were talking about jobs at this moment. The other thing people are going to be thinking about in terms of positioning themselves into this long weekend is greece. Greece. And so by the end right now were all jobs crazy. But by the end of the day will we be greece crazy and is there a setup in terms of an investor getting yourself into this weekend . I think if you look at a lot of the issues whether its greece or puerto rico which are similar situations its all politics. And i dont know as an investor how you gauge politics. I mean its a whim of this, whim of that. Whats going to happen . I dont know. I have to be honest with you, i think were trying to avoid it as much as possible and wait for the dust to settle and look at whats going on. I think to try and guess which i think is the best one can do right now is to guess whats going to happen in greece whats going to happen. Are they going to have a rempb did referendum, i dont know. Thats not good to do. Do you look at the longterm . Yeah. I think the longer term has been and we were just discussing this off camera. They need greece more than greece needs germany. We have massive overcapacity around the world. Women is a remnant of the global bubble. Every country is playing a market share. Has to be tremendously productive to overwhelm that. Not productive enough to overwhelm a strong currency. Every peripheral that leaves europe, the euro becomes more the deutsche mark. It becomes to appreciate. Then they have their problems too. If they get their own currency, they have huge problems over the next couple years bb but then were all going on vacation. I mean i dont know about you but i think were all going to be there. Youre talking logic. Youre talking long game strategies. Not something that always plays out in politics. And thats the issue. Thats exactly right. Part of the issue we think is behind the scenes here is how does germany sell this . How do the german politicians sell it back home . It cant be viewed as giving handouts to the greeks. That doesnt work. You dont get yourself reelected. So i think theres a bit of a game going on here between all the politicians behind the scenes trying to work out something that helps everybody. I dont know if theyre going to be able to do it or not, but i think thats whats going on behind the scenes. Im not sure its all economics. In terms of whether the euro continues to exist, you doubt its existence in 5, 10 15 years . Should have never done it but anyway they did im not a good enough expert to tell you. They be they can coordinate fiscal policies better. And banking regulations and things like that. If they try to make them they try to bring the rest of the sort of financial economy together. Yeah, i think they could probably do it. Saw the greek newspapers. Not only is it a different language, but what if the germans are trying to figure out what theyre saying. You need six people. What does this say . All the letters are i only know greek from fraternity letters. They go to the small, i cant do it. Its all greek to me. Where do you think that came from . Yeah. So in the meantime yes. If you can extract from the jobs extract from the fed and greece, what do you think about the markets in general . I think the u. S. Market is still attractive. We have yet to have an environment where investors are fully embracing the bull market here. You see shiller the other day . Yesterday. But with a straight face said these investors are not just enthusiastic about this market at all. I think its going down. Its the other way around. Purely a professor and fundamental type guy. I think so. Its neither individuals nor Corporate Pension funds nor hedge funds nor wall street strategists. Nobodys overly bullish about the market. Nobody thinks it can go up 30 from here. Nobody. No. And its already one of the longest bull markets in history and the longest bull markets in history and nobody has liked it. The only people that have liked this market are corporations that have been buying their own stock back and public equity. There are roughly twice as many u. S. Companies in private Equity Portfolios as those listed on u. S. Exchanges. Except fort market you have been great on the market. You have been right on most of this stuff. Sometimes i think it is hard for you to stay long. It is hard not from the view of procorporate america. If we are still trying to make sure we get past the point of deflation, versus inflation, that portends really good things for how long inflation rates take. Interest rates could stay good for a long type. We are on the down side of a global credit bubble. It is incredibly difficult too get meaningful inflation when you have a massive credit bubble. It is not surprising that wages got sucked back down again. It is really hard to get inflation. That is goldielocks. You dont want to use the word but longterm low Interest Rates and businesses starting to improve. If you think about corporations they arent showing this cycle behavior. They are not building inventories or leveraging themselves to the schnoz. You think we still interest two or three years. I think so. I am not sure if it is going to be state up or going to wiggle. I dont have a clue about that. If we come back in two years, 2 1 2 years, we are going to find a lot more people are going to be bullish. At the peak of the cycle, Everybody Loves stocks. Thanks. Thats great. Your bringing it home today. Coming up we like that. Coming up why facebook is tweaking its level. Stay tuned. Squawk box will be right back. 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He wants to build a better world of tolerance, acceptance equality and opportunity for all. It will be pledged to his Charitable Organization. Facebook just made a subtle change. When i say subtle so subtle to its logo originally designed in 2005. Here it is everybody. See if you can see the difference. Here is the logo before and after. Old is on the left and new is on the right. They just whipped the white and the blue. The letters are slightly thinner and a little sleeker and there is more white space. If you look at the a, it is more rounded off and the bfrmtsb is a little bit different. It stresses the growing importance of smartphone users. They check from their phones and the back lit glow of your phone will make the letters look clearer apparently and a little more legible. You ever do that last page on People Magazine where they show a picture . Find the seven differences. You are watching jeopardy. Here you have it. Ill admit that long before People Magazine. 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We are set up for a potentially higher open and decent days. We opened this week with a significant down draft. The tenyear note yield on this employment number we got, lets take a look at where we stand. The yield a