complete report. and macy's ceo terry lundgren will join us at 7:00. and jerry storch will also join us live. stocksindicating opening higher. ri the dow would open higher by 52, the nasdaq, 3 1/2, and the s&p 1 1.63. in asia, hang seng, higher bay half percent. european equities have been relatively flat. right now all are lower. the italian market, there's a big referendum being held on sunday, november 4 t december 4. the economist endorsed a no vote to telling italians when they go to the polls to vote no. the underlying issue is this doesn't speak to the core issues that the italian people face. if they vote no, what happens here? how does this spin out? >> everybody thinks it's gloom and doom. i don't think people believe that anymore in the wake of brachial plexus and the election. >> so you tell me what you're thinking, i'll think the opposite. >> the elite think it will be horrific, the polls say no. which makes me think yes. >> that's way too confusing. >> if they vote no, there will be a general election, and that general election will be about whether they stay in the euro. >> it would be stupid for italy to leave the euro. they get the advantages of germany being in the euro, the cheaper currency. they have not done the reforms which may help them do better. >> they haven't grown since they joined the euro. >> do you think that's a result of it? >> i'm thinking so, but also lack of reforms. this is a tough medicine story. if italy were to reform it would do better, but it had a chacnce not to reform to get the cheap euro through germany. you understand the logic there, that if germany gets -- is part of the euro, it makes the euro have a higher value than it otherwise would. >> yeah. yeah. >> okay. >> doesn't that make italian stuff more expensive? >> i guess it might. >> next. >> let me think about that. the next big countdown for the markets is the fed meeting. poli policymakers appear confident that the economy is strengthening enough to warrant a hike. the feeling is the fed will be ready to raise rates when they meet in december. the advance report on trade comes out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. you may not be excited about this, but they have come out earlier now in the cycle with the advance trade deficit. the markets are glomming on this. they trade this market now more than the fuller number. >> the advanced trade deficit than the actual trade deficit? >> they get it out earlier. it gives you the goods part, not the services part. >> opec leaders will gather in vienna next week to discuss cuts. iran and iraq may balk at the cuts. you can just repeat this story over an over again. it's groundhog day. >> why would the saudis go for big cuts which would raise the price of oil, help u.s. i'll production? >> it would also help the saudis who are running short on money. >> this is in that regard. >> i can ask any question, you can help. >> it's not true. >> you're three for three already. >> let's check out the price of oil now. 47.53. >> >> right in the zone. drum said he was working hard on thanksgiving to keep another u.s. manufacturer from moving production to mexico. trump tweeting yesterday trying to get carrier air conditioning company to stay in indiana. making progress. will know soon. earlier this year carrier announced it was moving its furnace plant in indianapolis to mexico, taking 1400 jobs with it. trump made several references during the campaign saying if it moved to mexico the company would pay a hefty tax on imports to the u.s. carrier has confirmed that they had discussions with the incoming administration but has nothing to announce at this time. i talked to several manufacturers, it's not just the trade agreement, it's the cost of labor and everything that makes it so much cheaper to do stuff in mexico. >> by a factor of what? >> some guys were like five or ten. there was no way on certain things that was manufactured that it couldn't be automated. even if they could, it was still difficult to justify u.s. production. >> carrier is part of united technologies. can you imagine being the ceo of thanksgiving, and the president of the united states is pressuring you -- >> you're a huge free market advocate what do you think about that pressure? >> i think it's awful. the reason jobs move, it makes the company more competitive. you have to ask why aren't the jobs here in the u.s. more competitive and work on those factors, instead of stopping the walls of capital. it's like when politicians think they'll wave a wand and say capital will go here because i want it to. capital goes where it's valued. you can't fight those forces. >> and the idea of putting tariffs on imports coming back to the u.s.? >> i'm not a fan of tariffs. it's frustrating for americans that we export a lot of goods, we try to export to certain parts of the world, and they put up barriers, or the way they treat our intellectual property is wrong. >> so this is going to be a three-hour version of the old tonight show. i will play ed mcmahon. i'll throw things your way and you'll answer them. 4 for 4. >> wilbur ross expected to be named commerce secretary. the billion naire is said to be getting the position. he is known for buying failed companies. >> i have an opinion on this. >> tell me. >> i love wilbur, had opportunities to talk to wilbur. it troubles me to think that wilbur will be involved with things which will have huge implications for his companies that bothers me. wilbur has a huge sprawling empire, and i think he's a totally honest individual. i don't quite get how he can do this or do that and not somehow affect his company. >> you should call in, weilbur. >> he's a smart guy, friend of the show. but i don't get how the conflicts will be able to be assuaged. that's my issue. i'm done. do i read now? >> yes. says steve. >> that would be me. many americans are sleeping off thanksgiving, some are at work, others are looking for a bargain. this is a live shot right now of the mall of america, just outside of the twin cities in minnesota. >> that's busy. >> you think that's busy? >> it's before 6:00 in the morning out there. >> right now we want to head to dayton, ohio. that's where we find courtney reagan this morning. every year she gets to go home and still report. i'm on to you. let's hear your report. we'll understand why you're really in dayton, ohio. >> it's my favorite day of the year. i love black friday. i swear i would come out here even if i wasn't reporting. it's kind of an experience for a lot of people. the big box retailers are headlining the early shopping. then folks come out to the mall even those people that say they rarely come here anymore at all. >> we have not gone to sleep yet. >> really? >> yes. we had our turkey, moved out at 6:30 and have been going strong. >> i probably only come during this time. i don't usually shop at the mall. >> it's probably been at least six months. i've been to walmart and kohl's and target and i think that's it. then headed here. >> target's ceo, brian cornell, says the store response has been positive. he calls traffic strong. hover boards sold out quickly along with the $10 teddy bears. apple products, game pads, dyson vacuums. there were a lot of fitbits and jbl speakers still left over. traffic and sales at target.com up double digits. it is also walmart.com's big the days so far. their biggest sellers, tvs, cookware, drone drones, pajamas. lots of variety in the lines, but everyone was making it through in about 15 minutes. and captify, which is a search engine, says gaming is number one when it comes to product searches. with the x-box, nintendo 3 ds and the play station 4 the top searches. black friday biggest discounts are what folks are really looking for. right now it's the point at the mall where some shoppers take a break and come home, go back out, but everybody is optimistic and stores are saying the traffic is about the same as last year if not a little bit higher at this point in the day. back to you guys in new york city. >> we know you'll be ever vigilant, thanks, courtney. >> it's cool. >> i was born there. >> she does a great job. >> you were born there? >> i was born in dayton, ohio. >> big army base there, right? >> my dad was involved. >> and a jesuit school. >> we have a great guest host today, dana telsey is here to give her retail forecast. >> when i was growing up, my father explained black friday this way, this is the first day of the year where retailers went into the black and became profitable. is that still true or has the holiday shopping season gotten longer? >> holiday shopping season has gotten longer, begins earlier. feels like halloween is not really halloween anymore because it immediately turns into the holiday season. the other thing that's different, speaking of that word promotions. we saw promotions all over when courtney was at the mall. retailers plan those pro momoti. e-commerce is helping to driver sales, stores help drive profits. the harmonization of physical and digital, it's happening, you need both. >> some day our kids will look back and say you are looking at bricks and mortar as if they were different? is that's what happening? >> this is the year when more people buy online and pick up in store. when they go to the store, they typically spend 30% more. that's what's changing. it's changing the land of retail. >> will it be a good season? >> i think it will be a decent season. when you look since 2009 there's been an average increase of 3.4%. we should see around 3.3%, could be 3.8% if you exclude walmart what do you have to buy? velvet? >> you're right. velvet is everywhere. >> what's up with velvet? >> all clothing coming out in velvet. velvet shoes, dresses, hats. >> i remember george on seinfeld wanted to be ensconced in velvet. do you remember that? >> no. >> buy it for your wife. >> that's good to know. if it doesn't matter where you buy it, does it matter when? >> no, it's getting closer and clos closer. >> but is black friday going to be outdated along -- >> is it outdated now? >> it's a bit outdated, but it's still the unofficial kickoff to the season given that it really starts back by halloween. there's a buzz and aura. >> it's a promotional tool to use. >> yeah. >> orient towards a seingle day. >> families are together. going out and hitting the stores. we see that. >> have you checked your channels this morning yet? >> i've been out there. i just had danielle at kohl's. >> you do this every year. you pick up your thing and read from your blackberry. >> we're on a smartphone now. >> and i got this keyboard. >> let's talk about that later. what are your channels saying? >> kohl's, danielle is at kohl's that was busy. serang was at best buy. >> these are your employees. >> of course. >> joe is in boston at the mall, said that was busy. target getting traffic. i was in macy's last night, you could feel it, it was a winter wonderland. victoria's secret, crowded address can be. and urban outfitters, check out calvin klein, it's busy. >> check out the crowds last night going into macy's. >> i just went no best buy about a month ago, the service is fantastic now. they changed that whole thing. if you go to a bricks and mortar store, you better have service there. >> the in-store shops of different brands. the other one who is doing better lately, have you seen coach? look at their in-store shop on 5th avenue. it's the coach house. does this make you buy any of the stocks? do you buy macy's, do you buy coach? >> i would buy some of the stocks. our names are up over 16% since november 4th. always what happens post black friday weekend, was it not as good? will we have a long season? they may come in and that will give the opportunity. if we get lower taxes, more consumer spending, that sets retail up for a good year in 2017. >> we talked about who is doing well. should we save for later who is not doing well? >> that's a tease. >> michelle has tout taught me about tv. so tune in for later about who is not doing well. the dow and s&p 500, you know this, at record levels. should we expect the rally to roll on into december? joining me is rob morgan from sethi financial group. he said his numbers point to no rate hike -- really? and rich steinberg is here. let's start with the no rate hike. what's up with that? >> steve, you quoted me a lot in your fed survey. >> i have. >> you know i'm not afraid to be in the minority. i think fed chair yellen telegraphed this in october when she gave her inflation overshoot speech. even though the minutes yesterday said that the fed is continuing to prepare us for a hike, i don't think they'll do it in december. >> rich, you want to have at that? >> the ten-year has gone up from 1.75 to 2.4. i think the bond market will go bonkers if the fed does not start to raise here. i think the bond market has already taken care of the decision for the fed. >> i think you're right. rob, if the fed is not going to hike, it better start walking it back now and put expectations more in line with where they are. that's been a critical determinant for the federal reserve over the last several years, where is the market priced? they've been keen to not upset the market at least on fed day. how far can the fed funds rate move from where the market is now? when rich said they already have it priced in. maybe more than one price, maybe two. >> i agree with rich, they should raise rates in december. certainly the bond market is telling us that. the fed is gaining ammo to fight the next recessionment but i think -- she's probably in the minority now on the committee, but i think from yellen's comments she seems adamant about this. >> rich, i want to use this time to explore the contrarian side of the rally. i want to make sure we're not missing anything. everybody seems so optimistic right now. i don't want to work against that optimism on a holiday, day after a holiday, but is there something that could go wrong here? is the market too optimistic about policies from the president-elect? is there something we're missing in terms of valuations that could derail this rally? >> i'm always on the show as a valuation guy. it's hard to come up with s&p values now because i'm not sure if the rhetoric will equal reality in washington. we know we'll get tax rate cuts, have lregulatory issues, but we also have a strong issue. traders have basically hijacked investors. we had a parabolic move in small cap. 23% of that is financials. the flow of capitals from etfs and parity traders and momentum traders may have brought the market up further. we could go further up going into the holiday season. but we'll be borrowing from peter to pay paul into next year's returns. so we are re-evaluating our s&p target. we were at 2100. it's overshot that this year. next year, we're at 2300. evaluating what will happen when dana was talking about the consumer, we'll have to see, what kind of tax rates we get through, and how much the consumer will step up. >> rich, when you talk about those levels for stocks what are you assuming for yields? where is the ten-year going? >> you have already seen a pull back on some of the bond proxy dividend stocks from this. the market priced in lower longer. so we think at 3% the ten-year starts to become competition for stocks. as an endowment or foundation, if you have a 4% spend policy you can put money into the ten-year and start to get closer to where the spend policy could be. >> rob, same question. give us -- have you thought through the contrarian side of this rally? is there something we need to be wary of or miss iing among this unbridled optimism here? >> sure, the consensus expectation is that s&p 500 earnings next year will grow double digits. that's caused me to have a target on the s&p of 2400. >> wow. >> so the contrarian side of it is that we don't see that type of growth. in recent years, analysts have been optimistic to start several of the previous few years. then they reined in expectations as the year has gone along. i guess -- i guess i'm believing -- i've drunk the kool-aid on the double digit growth. >> if earnings don't appear, you can worry about valuations, and there is a big number baked in now when it comes to what the expectations are for profits. >> thanks, guys. sad news from the world of entertainment. hollywood has lost one of its most iconic tv moms. florence henderson died at the age of 82 there heart fail areas. she started in show business address a sias a singer but will always be known for playing carol brady on "the brady bunch." one of my favorite lines was don't use the word stinker, peter. coming up, could the dollar derail the rally? we look at how the currency markets could impact stogs, p plus more shopping, more retail. but first, this day in history. u.s. dollar at an eight-month high today. joining us is dara maher. the dollar index at a 14-year high recently. >> it's amazing. >> there's only one or two questions in your world. how much higher -- does it keep going higher, and however does it go? >> i think it will keep going higher addres the u.s. yields k going higher. you were asking earlier what could derail it? for me the one that hits home is optimism in terms of what trump can bring in. we are focusing on one leg of the trump agenda we have homeland, investment, markets can only concentrate on one thing at a time. maybe because there's too many men in markets. >> maybe it's more than one thing, tax reform and infrastructure spending. that's two. >> are we in danger of cherry picking the good bits? of course you can extract these things. that's what the dollar is doing. at the same time you have the fed hike nailed in. does that prevent you from a forecast at this point? where are we at with the euro? >> i think we stick around 1.05. we have the italian referendum coming up, a couple banana skins in europe, but ultimately europe is not breaking up. we wiwill discount that europe trend. dollar-yen feels like it's getting away a bit. i think that gets capped around 1.15. >> what happens in europe, this is good for europe, but it's taken on the chin of the u.s. when it comes to companies. is this going to help european economies? >> how long did the ecb try to engineer a weaker euro? draghi was talking that down for years. >> donald trump did it. >> in a nanosecond. >> it's an echo to that dollar move. that's great. the not so good is you are worried about italy, france, austrian election. you don't wawant people who wil there. >> the your euro faces an existl threat -- >> can i point out this is a reporter who is laying the ground work for taking several trips to europe next year by making this story important? i'm not saying you're wrong. i want to point out the underlying current. like courtney being in dayton, you want to get to france, italy. >> rome is nice in december. >> rome is nice in december. sorry to interrupt. >> you don't think she can shop at 1.05? the euro always faced this challenge. plenty want to say the euro will break up for a, b, c, d -- >> we're at e. >> i think we might be at m at the moment. we will get through this again. the italian referendum we'll get through, the french elections. >> when you have a big move like this, there's collateral damage. which currencies out there have been taken along for this ride and it doesn't make sense for them. >> em. emerging markets. >> so you think there's a purchase in their assets or in the currency itself? >> em gets help with weaker currency. you don't want a currency falling so quickly that people are saying wrath other than making assets more attractive, it's making your's se assets le attractive. that's what they're having to contend with. that would be the collateral damage. >> mr. maher, thank you very much. not to be confused with bill maher. >> no relation, and i don't get paid like he does. >> that one says kelly -- now they just changed it. steve. shoppers are looking for bargains. we want to know if the consumer is more confident in 2016 verses a year ago. terry lundgren joins us at the top of the hour with an early report on black friday foot traffic. as we head to break, a look at wednesday's s&p 500 winners and losers. that was wonderful. >> bravo. >> great. >> pretty good. >> wasn't bad. >> parts weren't bad. >> i didn't like it. >> was bad. >> was awful. >> get them away. >> boo! i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. come on, wake up!!! come on, why ya sleepin'? come on! what time is it? it's go time. come on. let's go, let's go, let's go. woooo hoooo!! yeah!! i feel like i went to bed an hour ago. i'll make the cocoa. get a great offer on the car of your grown-up dreams at the mercedes-benz winter event. it's the look on their faces that make it all worthwhile. thank you santa!!! now lease the 2017 c300 for $389 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer. the market.redict but through good times and bad... ...at t. rowe price... ...we've helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. ♪ >> welcome back. >> i can't wait for wilfred to get here to enjoy the christmas music. black friday is here, officially kicking off the holiday shopping season. here to talk trends and the state of the consumer, matt chase. what are you hearing? >> happy black friday. >> is that a holiday? you wish somebody happy black friday? >> it is. happy thanksgiving, happy black friday, cybermonday. coming off good, strong numbers from october. the survey work we've done indicates we'll have almost record breaking crowds this year. 137 million people out there over the weekend. 74% will be out shopping today. some great deals. we're looking for a strong holiday. >> 74% of the 139 million will shop today? >> yes. >> the stories online are 59% of americans will shop on this holiday weekend. >> over the next three days. >> how does that compare to last year? >> about on target. >> same? >> higher than last year. overall sales will be up. consumers will spend more. as a buckeye it's hard to say the team up north, the university of michigan came out on friday with good numbers. very positive. the strong numbers from october, the commerce put those out. for the first time ever we've seen 25% of people say they plan to spend more this year than last year. >> have the retailers -- i want this question to dana and matt, have the retailers hired the people for these crowds coming? >> that's one thing we've seen changing. as the nature of shopping changed, as people adopted new strategies and tactics to deal with the crowds and things consumers want, buy online, pick up on store, you had to reconfigure parking lots, the insides of stores, have different kinds of associates and staff on duty this weekend. this doesn't begin to address the things you see in the distribution centers. >> what are you hearing? >> the same thing. >> they hired the people? >> they hired the people, trained the people. and what about christmas on a sunday? really big saturday. >> that's a good thing. >> it's colder this year than last year. >> matt, let's get serious for a minute. there's a new president coming in. there's a threat of tariffs. a lot of your people source a lot of their stuff overseas. how concerned are ceos of retail conglomerates and retail stores that there could be tariffs. >> a lot of policies need to be addressed when the president-elect is sworn in, the new congress comes back. there's a lot of positive things we can talk about. no one pays higher corporate taxes than retailers. the devil is always in the details. so when you have a consumer economy that imports $2 trillion worth of goods, and it's driven by consumer spending, if you tax imports, it will create a question. sfrnl >> is that a yes? >> it's something we worry about. >> will this cause you to change your valuations on companies? >> consumers wanted lower prices and retail verers have to figurt how to get more profit for those items. >> what about -- so talking about the election impact, the potential policies under donald trump, in the immediate wake of the election, is that 59% slightly higher than last year because of the election and the boisterous response from markets? >> clearly this was a campaign season and an election unlike any that we've seen. it was an enormous distraction for consumers. it was tough for retailers to break through the clutter and for consumers to think about anything else. what we saw was there was a good bump. we think there's been a nice run up. >> any difference between rhett and blue states? >> not that we've seen. but it will be interesting when retailers report their sales. >> they get it both ways. the red states will be buying because they're happy. the blou staue states will be b as therapy. >> there's a bit of that, i suppose. >> coming up, avoiding porch pirates. every year millions of americans have packages stolen there their front door. find out how to avoid being a victim. "squawk box" will be back in a moment. welcome back. u.s. equity futures at this hour, we're doing good. up 50 points on the dow. 1.8 or 1.37 on the s&p. not much on the nasdaq. more importantly, reserves have arrived. >> reserves. thanks. >> wilfred frost. >> welcome. >> good morning. >> to rescue us. >> how was your first thanksgiving in the united states? >> it was very lovely, thank you. went up, saw a tiny bit of the parade. i think watching it on tv is easier. hard to get close. very nice day. relaxing. >> tell us about your meal? >> i didn't actually have turkey. despite all the planning we had done. very nice, we didn't have turkey. >> if you want citizenship, i think you have to have five years of eating turkey on thanksgiving? >> that it? >> thankfully you have a visa system that allows me to be here without s without citizenship. a tougher visa system than you may think. >> wilfred frost is here for the rest of the show. last year 23 million americans had packages stolen off their doorstep, according to our next guest. how do you protect those holiday gifts you order online and avoid being a victim of a porch pirate? joining us is lori torres from parcel pending. i bet you have a product that helps. >> we do. good morning. thanks for having me. >> what is it? >> we have electronic smart lockers to manage packages across the country at apartment communities, because porch pirates are a huge problem for couriers, homeowners, apartment renter s. >> how often does it happen? >> daily. it's a big problem. 1.5 billion packages will get delivered between now and christmas. it's a huge problem. >> do u.p.s., fedex, who do you pitch to? do you pitch to apartment complexes? to the delivery companies? are you pitching to amazon? directly to consumers? how do you sell this? >> parcel pending is at apartment communities, all the couriers are using us. fedex, u.p.s., amazon, all will deliver packages into the lockers. it notifies the resident they have a parcel pending. they can pick up that package 24/7 at their convenience. it's safe and secure. >> what if i don't live in an apartment complex that has one of these. general tips for somebody with a real porch and a front door? >> there's a lot of ways to protect packages. one of those ways is we see a lot of video cameras being placed outside the residence. lockers are across the company. some providers like fedex, u.p.s., amazon have lockers as well. you can ship your item to a secure locker. there are different ways to protect those packages, like have it shipped to your office or to a neighbor. >> james at our office does so many packages. >> it happens daily. how many incidents of package pirating are there? >> last year there were 23 million packages that were reported as stolen. >> how many packages were delivered? >> last year, total packages, my gosh, billions. >> billions of packages and 23 millions. so there's a small chance your package will be stolen. >> that's right. it's true, you want to make sure you have a secure way to have your package, that's why there's different sliolutions now. in the big cities like new york, l.a., chicago, there's locker systems throughout the city. and u.p.s. is doing designated ste centers to pick up. >> also also the pit bull. >> to have a dog. >> the pit bull, yeah. >> that's old technology thing. >> thank you. it may be a small problem, but if it's your problem, it stinks. >> there's also insurance. i want people to know the cost -- >> it's not there for christmas. >> michelle, you're a data person. we're getting yelled out by rob. >> that's why you buy online and pick up in store. >> i like the phrase porch pirates. >> billions of packages, 23 million stolenful. >> don't let the facts get in the way. >> still to come on "squawk box," how one small clothing retailer competes with the big boys. that's coming up next. this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. you are gonna love this place. i'm more of a milkshake guy. then i'd say expand your horizons. i'm very open-minded! no no, expand your horizons. it's the name of a smoothie. yeah, i see they have bee pollen. two of my favorite allergies. trust me, john grows half this stuff in his own backyard. it's true. two of my usuals, please. add spirulina. is that a... noodle? it's his first time. mmm. that's almost as good as a milkshake. cheers! get together and shop small on small business saturday. welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. look at your screen right now. we have a chopper standing over -- flying over best buy in paramus, new jersey. and there is a line out the door. that looks like good news. doesn't it, dana? we'll discuss black friday. but small retailers also important to focus on. they themselves get a boost on black friday. joining us now, paul tribble. thanks very much for joining us. >> morning. >> your luxury shirt company founded six, seven years ago. first thing i know from reading into your notes, it's a really big day for you. the percentage of total sales over this weekend is very high that you expect to gain. >> yes. the last two months of the year we'll do about 40% of the entire year. the majority comes in this seven, eight-day period. black friday is where it begins. we're 35% off today. we're an internet retailer but we pulled discounts up like a lot of people. the next seven days is important for us. >> and the main route of your sales is direct customer online sales. >> it is. we started as an online business. but since then we've already diversified our own stores in mid-atlantic. we're also in nordstrom and specialty stores throughout the country. >> want to touch on the election. that's been something you cited as affecting sales. is it picking up? >> i think it is. the election was a distraction. i think now whether you're happy or devastated you've had two weeks to let it all set in and people are waking up saying the economy is not as bad as we thought it was and we're ready to spend. >> in terms of policies moving forward, how this could affect your business and consumers' business, you manufacture shirts in europe and some here but they're much more expensive. do you think there's a bit of a wakeup call who expect it's easy to bring jobs back and it's not going to have effects on consumer pricing? >> i think there is. it's a different economy than it was 50 years ago. for us we have factories in italy and poland and turkey and scotland and the united states. and so, you know, i think the idea of sort of disruptive trade policy and tariffs to bring things back to the united states can be difficult. for us we bought the second oldest shirt maker in the united states last year. we are making sure it's in the u.s., but it's a smaller portion of what we do. it's very high end. >> what percentage and what's the difference in terms of the cost? >> it's about 2% of what we do. >> sales. >> yeah. we do that in the united states. small factory in richmond, virginia. majority of what we do is ready to wear. o go online, get a nice shirt. that would be $145. in virginia it starts about $300. you work with a master pattern maker. >> how much of that difference is the spoke part which is more expensive to have a shirt made for you? >> the made in the u.s. is going to be premium. labor cost. and then just the customization there. i would say you are going to get a significant bump in terms of labor cost. >> give us three things that donald trump can do to make it easier for you to manufacture in the u.s. >> to manufacture in the u.s., i think it's -- one of the things is immigration. you know, i think we're talking about having people -- >> more people come in. >> but we need people who know how to sew. >> you can't find those people. that's more immigration. >> right now coming in from the polish factory to teach us in the u.s. in terms of how to -- >> we've lost that. >> in the 1970s we did 70% of our clothing here. now we do about 4% of our clothing in the united states. it takes training. >> what else? what about tax cuts? >> tax cuts are going to be helpful. that's going to put money back into what we're doing and we can reinvest. >> help your sales too? >> of course it will help sales. consumer side, people will be spending more. obamacare is another thing. i think there's some good things that came out of that. i don't think toss it all away, but revisions will be helpful. >> is that part of the labor cost issue? >> it is. i think if there are tweaks there to make the cost, you know, easier on employers and easier on people, that's helpful. trade policy makes me a little bit nervous. we have to be globalist because the supply chain demands it. and you've also got immigration. >> take ten seconds to tell us how awesome the shirts are. >> they're the best shirts made in the country right now. >> i want to give him a chance. he answered all of our questions on business. we have to make it worthwhile for him to come in. >> we have a few stores well. d.c., richmond. but we have a very simple business. we make an incredible shirt and take care of people. as long as the economy continues to hum along, we'll be in good shape. >> good luck. we love your animal spirits. >> thank you. coming up, swipe with caution. tips on protecting your bank account this holiday weekend or any time you use plastic to pay. plus macy's herald square opening up about an hour ago. flagship store in new york city. terry lundgren is going to check in. b "squawk box" returns in a just a moment. how will you keep up with the new demands of today's digital economy? the fact is: some believe they won't need a traditional bank down the road, so at cognizant, we're helping banking and financial services companies think digital, be untraditional, and reimagine what the bank of the future can be. our clients can now leverage customer intelligence to predict their financial needs and provide more contextualized products and services. we're creating new platforms across channels so customers can effortlessly invest, borrow, lend, transact-wherever-whenever they choose. and we're digitizing the way banks run, driving efficiencies and delivering new value for their customers in return. digital works for banking and financial services. lets talk about how digital works for your business. ♪ they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. shop until you drop. the nation's retailers are open for business this black friday. we'll check in with the ceo of macy's terry lundgren for retail recon. the november jobs report just one week away. la salle network joins us to talk about the state of the nation's job force. plus the must-have toys this holiday season. >> what do you mean for christmas little boy? >> a look at what kids will be asking for. >> no. no. i want a rifle. >> you'll shoot your eye out, kid. >> my, how things have changed. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> ho ho ho. ♪ live from the beating heart of business new york city this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. you're looking at a live shot or you were just now of macy's flagship store in new york city. sort of slightly busy for 7:00 a.m. not super busy yet. >> we did see crowds out front earlier when they opened door. >> the ceo of macy's terry lundgren will be joining us in a bit to talk the holiday season. you don't want to miss that. watching futures this morning. wall street will be closing early today at 1:00 p.m. futures board is expected to open higher. dow expected 55 higher. nasdaq by three. of course we were cloesed yesterday. we had a decent bit. slight gains, europe though pretty much flat. >> worried about you wilfred. you're questioning what's in the prompter. just read what's in there. all right? we'll get through this. it'll be great. >> i'm not worried about that. but it was an odd headline there. >> don't question. just read it. >> i did just read it and i regret it. >> let's check out european equities. they were weaker this morning because there was concern about -- >> pretty flat. >> let's call it flat and move on. >> the economists told italians to vote no on the referendum. >> and that is important why? >> because economists -- all economists agree -- i'm being snide -- if they vote no it will be doom and gloom and the world will end and the euro could be destroyed. exaggerates. >> it's significant short-term uncertainty versus what economists are saying saying they aren't the perfect political reforms for the country. so to vote them in for the long-term might not be good. but the rest of europe will be focused -- >> do you think the rest of europe gets a message from the u.s.? >> no. not at all. >> hold on. it may be possible. we don't know what's going to happen, but certainly one of the things that's happened is what a lot of the elite economists have said was that the fiscal side has to take the reins from monetary side. and reforms. so maybe now they get the message. >> you still don't get over the mention. you do need deeper integration, fiscal integration. until that happens, you've got different countries on that level. and you've got these rules. >> how many more times can mario draghi say please help me? >> he begs every meeting. >> how about over in the japanese central bank, please help me? >> and they don't. >> stan fisher, janet yellen have all said please help me. >> here's the bottom line truth we should remember. when the central banks help out federal governments, federal governments don't change like they need to. bottom line. when they're staring down the barrel of a 7% yield -- >> at the same time you have to say central banks withholding aid to the economy to force governments to do things is not in the purview of the central bank. >> the question i think you're getting at which is at the moment greece has taken it on the chin because they thought the worst outcome of leaving would be much worse for them. the issue will germany take their foot off the country's throats if a more meaningful country is threatening to possibly leave, that could be the thing that changes the pressure that germany puts in terms of -- >> ladies and gentlemen, there is so much brain power on this set this morning. i should leave. the average iq would go way up. >> let's look at broader markets right now. show you the price of oil which has been hovering between $45 and $50. wondering if there's going to be a breakout move driven by expectations for more demand, expectations for more supply, expectations of a higher dollar. >> and the saudis going crazy. >> wti lower. the dollar taking a rest this morning. weaker across the board against the euro, yen, and pound. 1.05 is what it will cost you. 113 yen for every dollar. and pound will cost you 1.24. the price of gold has gotten pummelled since the election. which has been interesting. >> not an inflationary trend. >> there's a concern maybe we'll get inflation. but you don't see it the price of gold. $1,187. per ounce. some political news to tell you about. "wall street journal" citing people close to the situation say wilbur ross is expected to be named commerce secretary under president trump. the billionaire chairman of wl ross and company is known for buying up failed companies. also a longtime and frequent guest here on cnbc. an investor in the greek economy, investor in the steel sector many years ago. people who like him call him a turnaround specialist. and those who don't call him a vulture. >> wilbur's a good guy. back to the retail and consumer stores may have opened thursday night, but the retail federation says the bulk of the traffic will still be today. courtney reagan from dayton, ohio, joins us now with more. take it away, courtney. >> reporter: hi. good morning again, steve. so the national retail federation says that 60%, nearly 60% of this country will shop at some point this weekend and three-quarters of them are going to do it today. deloitte says that peak traffic actually should begin at about now running over the next two hours. but thursday night thanksgiving hours really belong to those big box retailers and the anchor stores like jcpenney, target, walmart. shopping center jll says at its ten centers with thanksgiving hours, 90% are reporting moderate to strong traffic at either the same or above last year. sales on par with last thanksgiving. now, number of shoppers we spoke to have been out all night and they're not done yet. >> kohl's first. >> start at kohl's. >> then to dick's. then came here. >> yesterday we started at meyers. and we finished there and went back home and then got ready for dinner. then came back and shopped at walmart, kohl's, target, ultra. and then came here. >> reporter: now, target says thanksgiving day is in the record books for its biggest day online ever. traffic and sales up double digits. adobe is still tallying the online total yesterday thanksgiving day but so far looks like it's on track to hit the $2 billion mark which is what they had been looking for. today online sales for black friday could hit $3 billion for the first time and that would be up 11% from last year. back to you in new york city. >> thanks so much, courtney. now let's check back in with our guest host. black friday guest for how many years now in. >> a long time. >> you talked earlier. why don't you recap who's doing well. >> we're seeing in terms of who's doing well out there, foot locker is doing well. pink victoria's secret. my team is out there. and that's what we're seeing. when i was there last night, victoria's secret and pink was slammed with people. the ability to be able to have an experience and sell goods while the promotions are there too, that's what works. i saw it at macy's. saw definitely calvin klein. that was working also. coaches working too. and cosmetics. everyone doing selfies. when they're doing selfies, they're spending on cosmetics. >> that makes so much sense. >> to you. >> social media drives sales. >> come on, steve. you take the odd selfie as well. >> i did a facetime call the other day for the first time. >> they're great, aren't they? >> well, you know, my wife was a little concerned about it. she was like this is not a good look. >> a lot of chin. >> you need to buy more cosmetics. >> it never occurred to me. >> i was going to say who's not doing well? >> yoer seeing some retailers with big promotions. look at abercrombie where it's 50% off. their hollister business is doing better than the abercrombie. >> when you see 50% off at this point, that sends a bad signal to you? >> 50% off for black friday is the new this is what you're going to do. then you're going back to 40%. >> is there a theme here? is it clothes, electronics, games? some theme you can tell us about? >> clothing is doing well. that's one of the things we should ask terry lundgren about. they've seen a pickup in momentum in apparel. jewelry is slower lately. that's something you want to watch carefully. >> you would throw out promotion, throw out price if you could give some colder weather the most important thing. >> outer wear and cold weather accessories. we need that and coming fast. but retail inventory levels are lean. greater sales growth than inventory growth. >> we just showed the stocks for abercrombie. while those retailers have recovered, they have not. they don't look good. they're down 43% year to date. >> having issues. there's trouble and they're having to fix the stores. aber ccrombie is in the midst of -- >> those aren't buying opportunities? >> i'd wait it out. i think there are other buying opportunities. the buying opportunities i see, l brands, lululemon. brands with a lot of value. you'll see a lululemon, leaner margins, levels. >> dana, it's been up strong. do you think that's -- there's l brands by the way. >> down 25%. >> exactly. >> but if you look at the overall retail index, it's been up very strong. has it gone too far too fast? >> i think that's the opportunity. >> is this a much bigger advantage this weekend and discount period for online retailers. the cost also associated with the bricks and mortar guys to have the bigger footprint of people, is that a big cost or do retailers online also have to invest more in terms of matching that demand? >> the multichannel shopper shops more than the single channel shopper. you need to have both together. >> the multichannel shopper is someone who uses both the internet and shopping in a store. got it. >> stick around because we're going to talk more about online particularly now millions of americans shopping from the comfort of their own homes. this black friday while the computer used to be the traditional place to shop from home, mobile phones are taking over. but our next guest says not so fast. let's tender to ceo of nightline security vinny troy. thanks for joining us. what's your top tip in terms of helping people avoid being hacked or scammed while shopping online this weekend? >> so i think online shopping isn't as much of a concern. i mean, certainly you want to make sure if you're doing it from your home you're probably okay. you want to make sure you're not using your credit card on public wi-fis or places like that. the bigger concern for consumers right now are the gas pumps. i mean, the technology with gas pump skimmers has evolved to such a new place where they're completely undetectable. the devices slide into the credit card slot. so consumers will have no way of knowing that there's a skimmer in the device. so the device will actually just read credit card numbers. i think that's probably the bigger risk for consumers right now. >> i don't know that wha this is. do you know what this is this gas pump skimmer? >> explain, vinny. >> sure. it's a well spread thing at this point. but basically criminals will go to gas pumps and put this tiny device into the gas pump and it will just read credit card numbers. then they go back around to the devices and pull the skimmer out. >> so it's interesting. it's fairly common thought that you can be hacked when you're buying online, but generally speaking you're saying normal shopping when you go shopping with your credit card it's just as easy for people to rip you off. >> sure. i think physical shopping is probably more susceptible at this point. you know, with all of the large data breaches that we've seen, you know, companies like target or home depot or whoever the latest breach is, they're starting to get their stuff together. when you're shopping online, it is much more difficult to steal the information than it would be physically because you could literally just kind of -- even as simple of stealing someone's wallet. or with a skimmer. if you're at a restaurant, they could use a skimmer where they swipe it on the spot. so i mean, there's many more ways to physically get somebody's card number. >> for people shopping in brick and motor stores, what do you think of apple pay? is that something that adds another level of hackability or something that protects shoppers? >> i love apple pay. apple pay and google pay. i think that is completely the future because it completely randomizes the credit card numbers. whenever you make a transaction, the credit card number is never transmitted. it's a completely sort of encrypted number. there's literally nothing to steal. i mean, if more people would adopt that, the problem would go away much faster. >> how much larger is this problem becoming and what takes it away and what minimizes it? >> i mean, there's no slowdown to credit card theft and credit card fraud. and really at this point the only thing consumers can do unfortunately is to just make sure they're looking at their credit card statements. it's one of those things where i hear from people all the time, you know, if i get fraudulent charges on my credit card i'm not going to worry about it because i'll call the bank and they'll reverse the charges. it's not necessarily that simple all the time. the last thing you want is to look at your statement after a couple months and realize you've been hit with all these charges that are fraudulent mixed in with regular transactions. >> i'm confused. what about the chips? i thought the chips were going to -- we rounded one where it said don't put your trust into chips. why not? i thought that was going to solve a lot of problems. >> not at all. so the chip is only designs to prevent your card number from being imprinted on another card. but the actual chip, you know, whenever you're doing a normal process, it transmits the card number completely unencrypted. i mean, it's not very effective at all. >> and did i read in the notes that if you have an android phone, you can stand near somebody else with an android phone -- clarify that for me. what the vulnerabilities are there. >> it is possible. it uses a technology called nfc. it would take a look. you literally have to be almost on top of the person to pull that off. if you're a consumer, don't leave your phone kind of laying around at the mall or wherever and you'll probably be safe from that. >> are there a series of things that are no brainers, low hanging fruit stuff that should be done either through government regulation or the credit card companies or even individual users of credit cards to make the world more secure, make their own credit card information more secure? >> sure. i mean, i'm not sure if it's low hanging fruit at this point. i think part of the problem is even when you look at the gas pumps, the adoption of the technology or adoption of new technology to prevent fraud is very expensive. so it's a very time consuming process. from the consumer perspective, the best thing you can do is stay on top of your statements and make sure you don't have all these charges. and certainly don't use your debit card. because the last thing you want is for your money to be drained out of your account. >> thank you very much for joining us this morning. >> thank you. appreciate it. coming up, terry lundgren the ceo of macy's going to join us to talk what he's expecting to see during the holiday rush. he's our guest after this break. and later a closer look at jcpenney's turnaround. a 20% gain in price over the past year. can the company keep it up as we head into the holiday rush? "squawk box" will be right back. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. welcome back to "squawk box." football fans treated to three courses of nfl games on thanksgiving to go along with their turkey, stuffing, and pumpkin pie. the detroit lions hosted the minnesota vikings. the score was tied with 40 seconds left when sam bradford's pass was intercepted setting up a game-winning field goal. detroit beat minnesota 16-13. longtime rivals washington redskins to dallas to take on the cowboys. check this out from terrence williams. gets the touchdown. dallas went on to win. i'm auditions for a sports broadcast. how am i doing here? >> good. >> i've never read sports before. all right in the night cap the steelers were taking on the colts. it was all pittsburgh winning big over colts. >> i'm literally on the edge of my seat. >> are you? great. in f this economic thing doesn't work, i'm in sports broadcasting. >> i was glued. >> now we got to go. ceo of macy's joins us. plus ceo of hudson's bay gerald storch will share his outlook for the holiday shopping season and talk foot traffic. "squawk box" will be right back. hey steve check out this guys leg. yeah looks like a real nasty moving back in with his parents. what? no. i just broke my leg. no, this is a full blown move in to the basement, you're gonna be out of work without that money from... aflac! you might miss your rent. aww i just moved out. bummer man. hey i used to have my own place. yeah? no, no i live with my mom, but it's cool. health can change but the life you love doesn't have to, keep your lifestyle healthy with... aflac! on this black friday, let's bring in macy's ceo terry lundgren who joins us from the macy's flagship store. how's it going so far this morning? are you seeing big crowds and how much of an indicator is that for the weekend and the season? >> well, first of all, it actually started last night. i was here at 5:00 p.m. when we opened the doors at macy's herald square to 16,000 people that were wrapped around the entire building waiting to get in. so there's no question that there's still an interest in black friday, end of thursday into black friday. the crowds are continuing to be steady. >> we are showing the video of the crowd from last night and everybody coming in. what do you think is bringing them in this year? why are they coming? >> well, first ofr all, i continue to believe -- we've talked about this in the past. that the way the consumer shops today, they start on their phone, do their research. they decide where they're going to buy, what categories they're going to want to buy, what price they're prepared to pay. then they come in to experience the product inside that brick and mortar facility. that's us. that's what's happening. that's why they're here. then once they get here on a value day like today, they're going to buy. they're not going to wonder if it'll be there tomorrow. here it's an urgent response and reaction. that's why they're here buying. that combination of using technology and the experience of being inside the store is the way the consumers are shopping today and will continue to do so in the future. >> terry, it's dana tel see, hi. i was at the store 10k last night and it was busy. you talked about apparel picking up. what's the key driver where apparel is gaining momentum? >> the dress business has been very strong. we're starting to see that carry over into social occasion dresses as well. not just daytime dresses but evening dresses into social occasions. that whole category has been strong for us. i notice that's been reported. not everyone is talking about apparel sales picking up. we clearly are seeing apparel sales picking up. for us it must be market share gain. that's from the great brands we have. tommy hilfiger has been on fire for us. speaking of apparel, i saw that you guys were talking to steve about velvet and he was saying he wouldn't wear velvet. but i got this jacket pulled for him. i'm saving it for him. >> steve, you'd look great in that. >> this would be perfect for steve, don't you think? >> i think it would be excellent for him. i think it's the right color. >> terry, i want to see you in it. >> just for you. $59.99. >> i would get that jacket. i can wear it to one of my shows with my blues band. i could be a good look for a musical show. can i just ask the election and the consumer what kind of mood is the consumer in and is it different -- in different parts of the country? >> you know, listen. i'm watching you guys reporting how strong the stock market is. obviously there is a strong reaction to this election. i think the country's glad that this is behind us now. we know the decision and we can decide how we're going to respond to that. based on what i've seen so far particularly last night and the crowds today, i'm encouraged. the consumer has money in their pocket. they have the savings accounts are strong. you're seeing wage growth improving. unemployment is at very powerful, almost full employment here. so we're in a position, i think, for consumption to take hold. it's just a matter of seeing what happens and what changes over the next several months. but i'm encouraged. >> terry, just quickly what about price points? the likes of target and walmart over the last 24 hours. have you seen the smaller ticket items being the main things getting off the shelves? >> it's actually a combination. like, we have a $15 gift set. so if you don't want to commit to a big fragrance purchase, you can get six different -- a variety of six different sample sizes that are sort of what we call luxury sample sizes. and at the same time the apple watch is selling very well. and high-end technology items are selling well. it's for us not just lower price. i think that's what a store like macy's has to offer the best. that is the wide range, wide selection of various products and price points. >> and that stock up 11% so far this year. good luck today and this weekend. >> thanks very much. >> thanks for the jacket, terry. >> steve, the race is on. i think i might try to get the jacket before you. >> you already have a velvet smoking jacket, i bet. >> i do. not a red one though. >> of course he does. >> what color is the jacket? >> it's dark navy blue. >> of course. james bond. >> how good are they in the back? they're playing blue velvet. >> both of you can get a red and each wear red. >> that was a lot cheaper than i paid for it. i have to say. more expensive. >> tna. >> you can say that on tv? still to come on "squawk box," we'll tell you how president-elect donald trump spent his thanksgiving. first look at the futures. dow opening to the tune of higher 57 points. we're back in a moment. what i love most about tempur-pedic mattresses... is that they contour to your body. you just have to lay back in my tempur-pedic, and it just kind of forms to my body. it comes up to you, like hey, there you are... hey, there you are... ...i'm going to put you to sleep now. it keeps us comfortable and asleep at night. can i take a nap now. it's our biggest event of the year ...and a great time to buy a tempur-pedic, with our best prices on all tempur-pedic mattresses. save up to $600, now thru november 29th. get your tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. check out the futures at this hour. strengthening ever so slightly. we came in this morning, michelle read the board. >> that would be another new high if we close higher. >> every one -- every point, right, is a record high? >> an intraday on the s&p wednesday. >> what was the intraday? >> yorm off the top of my head. >> and terry lundgren pointing out earlier that he thinks the better stock market plays a role in the more optimistic consumer. and maybe helping optimism out there. the next big countdown for the markets will be the fed meeting. the latest fed minutes show appearing confident. enough to warrant an increase soon. the minutes released late wednesday, they back the general feeling the fed is ready to raise ratss when they meet in december. just one piece of economic data today. the trade deficit out at 8:30 a.m. eastern. i'm the only one excited about this. it's done a good job at telegraphing where it was going to go. i like it. >> it's great having steve reading a generic fed read as an anchor. it's like get the nfl. >> you're so excited about it. it's like your team plays every day. ahead of the opec meeting, saudi arabia is said to be backing the steepest cut possible removing about 2% from the world's oil supply. but iraq might balk at the cuts. let's show you the price of crude oil at this hour. decline of 1% for wti. $47.42 per barrel. donald trump says he was working hard on thanksgiving to keep another u.s. manufacturer from moving production to mexico. trump tweeting yesterday he's trying to get carrier air conditioning company to stay in indiana. making progress, will know soon. earlier this year the carrier announced it was moving its furnace plants to indianapolis -- from indianapolis to mexico. taking 1400 jobs. trump made several references to carrier during the campaign saying if it moves to mexico, the company will face a hefty tax on imports to the u.s. carrier confirmed to cnbc it's had discussions with the incoming administration but nothing to announce at this time. >> this is a very big, high-profile test for donald trump on trade. >> can he do that? can he slap tariffs on just carrier? or somehow construe it? >> first he's got to be in office, right? got to get to january 20th. but he's got a lot of lateral -- he's got a lot he can do on trade when it comes to executive order. >> in other words, just on his own. >> which could be driven. >> so this is the downside people were talking earlier this morning. before you arrived wilfred, we were asking what the downside was we're missing in the market. the trade shoe hasn't dropped yet. and that that's something that could potentially spook the market and kind of rein in this. >> tax cuts and infrastructure spending. >> right. >> all good news. >> i'd say the bigger potential negative surprise is priced in we're going to get some form of infrastructure spend. that's still yet to be delivered. i know that's general consensus on wanting to see that delivered. but there's not general consensus on how it's funded. >> i wrote a piece last week -- i'll tweet it out again. i wrote about the deficit and how that can be something that attenuates what donald trump can accomplish. where did the tea party republicans come down, how does the public feel about this? how does the fed react to this? >> right. and on top of that, interest rates have gone up. it's the reason what's driving them up which is what matters. that's why we haven't seen markets derail. if we start to see rates soar because it's getting out of hand, that's not a good reason to have higher rates. could be something that derails coming down later. >> what we call bond vigilantes. small business saturday was a big win for local retailers last year. shoppers spending about $16 billion. this year american express which created the shopping holiday said it should be on par with last year. kate roger joins us with more details about that. >> reporter: hey there. it's a big year every year for small businesses. and local retailers like tons of toys here where we are today are hoping for a lot of foot traffic. now, they tell us their customer service is what sets them apart from their big box competitors. >> we absolutely pride ourselves on tons of toys, we do the free wrap, free delivery for local people. so we go above and beyond for the service. and i think that there's a really strong push and grassroots movement for shop small. when it's picked up by an organization like amex it's that much stronger. >> this is the sixth year amex has sponsored this holiday. 95 million customers around the country went out and shopped small at local retailers. restaurants, salons, and more. the good news for small companies is early research shows that 76% of customers who are aware of the holiday say they plan to get out there and support a local retailer just like tons of toys this year which is fantastic news for small companies like them. and they do black friday, small business saturday, tons of savings sunday. then they do an aents-cyber monday. they do promotions all through the weekend. back over to you. >> kate, i heard a number from a government official last week. if you spend a dollar at a small business, 70-plus percent stays in your community. >> reporter: tons of toys, their owner you saw he does a lot of rallying in the community to get people to not only shop at his business but businesses across the street. they're located on a highway and they said a lot of people don't realize they support each other as well. as you said, the dollars stay within the business and community at large. hiring helps jobs. more people get out and spend. it's a win all around. >> great stuff. thank you very much. steve, i want to follow up on one point. that's obviously local community. >> i think it's local. i think ultimately it depends, like, you could follow the dollar through. help out a big department store. shareholders get that money eventually. and so the shareholder, what is the wealth of the shareholder, what is their propensity to spend that dollar? i think that there is a need to help small business and i like the idea that people know when they do it they may spend a little bit more but there's a value to them in the community. >> and you always need a bit of local retailers in addition to the national retailers. plus you have that's what's bringing the physical to the store. people go and they want to support the local businesses. >> let's go from that which is not unrelated to talking about jobs. next friday i can't believe it's going to happen again. happens every month. but it seems to happen faster. joining us now ceo of national staffing and kre kruting form la salle networks. we've been on a roll in this economy. we've been creating a lot of jobs but a lot of complaints about whether they're good jobs. what's your take on that? >> i think it's going to continue. i'm fairly confident that we'll see at least a mid-150, 160 job report coming in for the november numbers. and we'll continue going through. my clients we're working with around the country are optimistic about deregulation from the new administration. i think we're seeing that in the stock market and see that on main street with hiring. >> tom, what was your take on the texas judge who overruled the new overtime rules? was that a good or bad development? >> strong development for the employer market. it was an obama appointee judge who ruled in favor of the states. with that not happening, it was a late notice. it was to take effect on december 1st. so just one week before it was to take effect, the judge overruled it. but it stops employers from having to either "a," limit employees from working over 40 hours which is detrimental to the employee's career, or "b," decrease their salary cost which would have resulted in getting laid off to accommodate increases. >> let me take the other side of that. you could take a guy -- okay. i'm paying you $24,000 and i'm making you a manager. and you're going to work as so long as i want you to work. that seems unfair, doesn't it? >> well, i think there's exceptions. and there was a lot of talk of having a retail exemption. what was happening was a lot of the national retail stores were doing that exact thing and making somebody a manager and assistant manager and having him clean the toilets at 2:00 in the morning and that wasn't right. where it is detrimental is when you have a lot of companies nonprofits, service organizations that hire a lot of college graduates between $30,000 and $40,000 a year and the goal is work as hard as you can and overcome to get opportunities. the starting from the mail room mentality that started this country was getting thrown out the window. >> what other areas get affected by this. what do you think of the restaurant pace? how do you think about that? >> it doesn't affect the restaurant -- anything that was an hourly job to begin with didn't really affect it. many are overtime eligible. didn't get a lot of talk were colleges and universities where they employee a ton of people and the budgets aren't as big. work more than 40 hours a week. a ton of non-profits were getting hit hard from staff. where the people want to put in more time but the budgets aren't allowing to pay higher salaries. like i said, a lot of marketing, advertising, inside sales based organizations where they hire a ton of people out of college. and the goal is work your butt off and get promoted. those ones got -- >> tom, we're going to have to have you back to talk about this. but i want to ask about this. where are you seeing strong growth right now from your clients? >> we're seeing it a lot in the consumer package good distribution model. so a lot of companies that are implementing big systems and then hiring a lot of supply chain experts. we're seeing a ton of stuff in back office accounting procurement. and technology is always a big one. we're seeing a ton of right now sales hiring. >> what does erp stand for? >> i'd been trying to find that out from folks at s.a.p. for years. >> electronic retail processing? i just made that up. >> that's good. >> it's an enterprise system. so it incorporates back office and sales. >> what about regionally? where is the hiring happening right now? >> i think we're still seeing it in the big cities. we're seeing it in new york, chicago, l.a. it is the two different americas of the big urban markets that are feeling more of the pain. i heard terry lundgren say earlier that 14,000 people were at macy's in new york. how many were in tulsa or new orleans or madison, wisconsin. where's main street on this? >> tom, you're a champ for coming in on the day after thanksgiving and joining us. we appreciate it. >> glad to be on with you. coming up on "squawk box," we're going to go shopping. "star wars," pokemon. a look at what your kid will be throwing a tantrum for this holiday season. a roundup of hot days coming up on "squawk box." s my headquarte. this is where i trade and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. black friday is in full swing. joining us this morning from the lord and taylor flagship store in new york city, hudson's bay company ceo gerry storch. are you getting any good indications about the holiday season? >> it just started but the national retail federation has more this year than last year. i think when it's all said and done, the headlines are going to be, black friday lives on but it's an all-channel black friday including the internet. so all the reports from various retailers, everyone all around the country are that people in line when stores opened. it feels just like black fridays have felt forever. all about the dealing. people come out for black friday because they love finding the deals like our $39.99 cashmere sweater at lord & taylor. or $39 coats. people love the deals on black friday. now, while it is more on an all-channel black friday, on these days where thanksgiving day and black friday are rivaling cyber monday for it doesn't mean the in-store sales are at the expense of it. >> steve has got a question for you, gerry. >> yep. >> what are you seeing in terms of the categories out there? are you seeing apparel picking snup any categories that are working for you and is the cold weather going to get here to help us? >> that's a great question. we finally see coats starting to sell better. it is colder than last year. all of us retailers have been waiting for this. last year was just so hot all the way up until christmas, we don't have that now. that's not the forecast for now. but we are seeing outer wear start to sell. so we are seeing it start to trend nicely. >> got it. gerry, thank you so much. good luck this big weekend for you guys. we thank you for taking the time to do this. >> still come out for the deals. >> we didn't talk about velvet. >> we didn't. but you and i are going to macy's. >> we're going to go get -- >> both of you need red. >> it's sbn decided. but still to come on "squawk box," what toys your children want and where to find them. as we go to break, futures are heading to a higher open about 60 points for the dow. we'll be right back. ♪ today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to cloud platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. that's why over 90% of the top 25 global pharmaceutical companies are turning to cognizant. our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way clinical research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing patient engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. our population's growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients: to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. ♪ what toys will be the must haves this holiday season? aditi roy joins us with a look. hi, aditi. >> reporter: hey there, michelle. this is the paw patrol interactive robotic dog. it speaks two languages. french and english. and it actually has infrared sensors in front so if it runs into your child, it will go the other direction. just one example of how tech is infiltrating the toy industry. in fact, tech related products are topping this year's holiday list for kids. it speaks to a larger trend of technology topping many holiday lists. the consumer technology association reports a record 116 million americans plan to buy tech during the busy holiday shopping season. another trend is traditional brands tapping into technology. so you can make a drone with legos, play virtual play-doh. many are wi-fi enabled. >> so given the opportunity to take something and really go to your ipad or android and program something for it to move. i think that's very cool. so you learn coding, you kind of understand how things work. and so to see an item you created through technology, through the robotics, it allows the child to kind of feel they created something on their own. >> and of course the hot seller toy the hatchimals, they use robotic technology to hatch. the company that created them is known for their innovative solutions and have a separate robotics division. >> thanks so much. coming up, amazon and apple getting ready for a big holiday season. we talk tech and holiday expectations. ahead of the open on wall street, a shortened session today. "squawk box" coming right back. s looked up to the sky and said, "why not?" and collaboration tools from intel made rocket science simple for actual rocket scientists. and the launch crew met for a moment of reflection. before any of this, cdw orchestrated a collaboration solution using pcs with intel 6th gen core vpro processors. collaboration by intel. orchestration by cdw. calling all bargain hunters. it's black friday. we check in to stores across the country. a toy story. the official kickoff of the holiday shopping season. we have a rundown of the hottest dolls, games, and gadgets as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> you know that song, wilf? good. it's a good one. >> michelle's been making fun of wilfred's lack of knowledge of thanksgiving for over a week now. i don't think it's gotten old yet. it's funny. at wilfred's expense, no? >> it's fine. >> she's been having a ball with it. >> he's very tall. he can take it. >> there's a lot to learn. >> all right. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera along with steve leisman and wilfred frost. >> wilfred did not have turkey yesterday. >> that's right. i'm saving up for christmas. >> it is black friday. shoppers are flooding stoers across the country. you're looking at the mall of america in minnesota. we're going to show you any second. there it is. showing you all morning. we're going to have much more on the morning. dana telsey has been covering retail for longer than she wants to admit here on wall street. first, though, a check on the markets. we are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell. futures right now suggesting a positive open. a new high for the dow yesterday. s&p as well. right? anything new -- new intraday high nearly for the s&p. so the optimism post election continues. show you what's going on with european markets at this hour. they were pretty flat to negative most of the morning. and now the ftse has turned higher. but barely. this is flat trade. the big news over there is that the economist the magazine had recommended italian voters vote no and that key referendum coming up. and the dollar is taking a breather. this has been one of the huge stories since the election. a megarun. but it is weaker against the euro and the yen. almost 1.06. pound, it's weaker against the pound which will cost you a buck 24 this morning. it is a shortened day of trading today. the new york stock exchange and nasdaq will close at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. the bond markets close later at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. commodities and car insurancety markets also observing the holiday and have a shortened session. although currency markets never actually close. i'm not sure about that. >> they don't. and even the bond market doesn't really close. >> but the stock market closing at 1:00. >> first time earlier than the bond market. >> did it used to be? >> never really caught that before now. here are the stories investors will be talking about today. wilbur ross expected to be named commerce secretary. considered a turnaround specialist. known for buying up failed companies. opec leaders also gather next week to discuss oil production cuts. saudi arabia backing the steepest cuts possible. moving about 2% from the world's oil supply. but iran may balk at those ideas. the price of oil is around $47 and change. coming up any minute now. is it leer now? >> it was lower by about 3 cents. >> we will get that to you right away. there it is. down 43 cents. is that right? or almost 1%. and there's one piece of economic data today. we're 30 minutes from the october trade deficit. >> which steve is excited about, by the way. >> a lot of exciting events. we've got middle of next week opec meeting. then the italian referendum zblps a fed meeting in there too? >> what? >> interest rate hike. >> and a lot of retailers reporting sales and earnings next week. >> everybody's got their thing that they're excited about. >> speaking of which, black friday is in full swing right now. courtney reagan joins us live from dayton, ohio, and what we can expect on one of the busiest shopping days of the year. >> reporter: we are seeing and hearing optimistic undertones from shoppers and retailers around the country. target and macy's and much more. mall traffic here is picking up. deloitte expects the next two hours is the heaviest mall traffic of the morning. some consumers have been out all night. others went home to refuel before coming out to continue their holiday tradition. >> it's been great. it's a little less people this year. >> black friday's going great. i wouldn't want to spend it any other way after thanksgiving. >> good. really good. there's some good deals. >> reporter: now, amazon says that black friday is already on pace to beat 2015 in terms of the number of items that have been ordered. amazon says that alexa devices and the tv stick, its fire stick are among the top sellers as well as a crock pot, a smart plug and headphones. target ceo brian cornell says the u.s. consumer is strong and that means it's a great time to be a retailer. he also classified that whooes seen in stores so far as strong. he likes what he's seen also online hitting some records there for target. thanksgiving day is target's best day ever on its website. traffic and sales up double digits. so some good news there. hover boards selling out. the $10 teddy bear selling out at target. apple products and hoover vacuums also among the best sellers. here at the mall in dayton, ohio, i've seen a number of victoria's secret pink bags and a lot of starbucks cups. that is another retailer measure we look at on a day like black friday. the number of people that are hitting those restaurants and those fast food places to fuel up along the way. they get a nice bump on black friday too. back to you all in new york. >> thanks, courtney. if you are out shopping today, tweet us pictures of the crowds @squawkcnbc. how are the big box retailers doing? what about the walmarts, the targets of the world? >> my team oes out. joe was just at walmart and basically saw busy lines. also on the target side, that seems particularly busy going through the night and frankly into the morning. been seeing a little bit longer lines, too, there. i think the big boxes are doing okay. i think they prepared for it. i think they had special door buster deals. it just seems there's a greater sense of urgency this year than last year. >> in the stock market world, you're deciding do i go with the big box retailers or the specialty retailers? where does it come down in your view? >> i think in my view right now, we're seeing good things going on at the big box retailers. we're seeing it at best buy, at walmart. and that's working. >> what changes? >> i think what's happening with integrating online and the competitiveness on price. it's sharper than it's ever been. >> what happened there? >> the stock up 8%. the earnings were better than expected. right? >> and brian cornell is out there this morning saying they've got a good start to the season. >> i heard -- >> is that suggesting that people are spending on smaller ticket items rather than bigger ticket items? >> i think overall typically on the bigger ticket items, there's spending there. look at jcpenney. they got a real benefit from putting appliances in their stores and helped drive the comp. it's a much higher average transaction. what's happening with the big box retailers is their inventories are clean, they have the must-have items that are there and it's driven traffic. >> inventory is a big story. right? i remember in the wake of the financial crisis, 2008, that winter was set up for 2006 inventory and the bottom fell out of the entire world. right? fifth avenue was empty. now we have the opposite situation. it feels like we've gotten this surprise turn because the election of donald trump and inventories are incredibly lean. >> retailers are going into the season with inventories probably half the amount of last year in terms of the percentage increase. so it's a much lower increase. it's going to be a better profit season. and the other thing you have this year, more new items and demand. whether it's virtual reality, gaming consoles throughout, whether it's look at the tvs out there that best buy is selling. and whether it's velvet and some of the items -- >> flare pants. >> a little bit higher waisted pants working. so new things. and active wear is still out there. may not have the growth rate it had before, but still go to active wear sales. and don't forget cosmetics. >> we're going to get red jackets and flare pants as well. >> i'm not sure how i feel about it. every half an hour we talk about the velvet. >> it's 60 bucks. no reason not to. >> velvet. back to the markets. let's get some information into the trading day. joining us now is michael farr. also lindsey pieza. michael, do you have a velvet jacket? >> you know, steve, oddly i don't. but i have been listening to the blue velvet song there. that's got to be a top five for your band, right? >> are you considering a velvet jacket? >> i am now, steve. >> i'm glad. >> i try to do whatever "squawk box" tells me to do. they set the fashion tone. >> let me ask a serious question then. michael, is the retail consumer back in this market? are they interested in this market now that the dow is soaring again? >> they seem to be. the markets do rally. it's one of those continues self-feeding loops. they spend a little bit more when feeling better. we have to watch the did the, watch the consumer debt. consumer spending has been strong for a long time. this feels like a better holiday spending time for retail. >> are you optimistic? are you changing now in terms of your outlook for the km i? >> certainly the bar for the consumer has been set relatively high going into this spending season, this holiday season. but as we've seen the consumer has seen a lot of volatility shifting the goods and services in their basket. but the pace has been remained lackluster. we're cautiously optimistic hoping some of this optimism from a new administration coming in with pro-growth policies will translate into the consumer loosening their pursestrings. as of late, we haven't seen that. and remember the reality of the economy at this point has not been changed since the first week of november prior to the election. so the consumer is still facing waning momentum in terms of income, moderate job creation, and of course the -- >> hold on, lindsey. wages have been doing pretty well, right? you have a fed that's worried about wages. jobs have been doing well. i'm a little bit -- it looks like all the ingredients are in place for the consumer to do well here. >> well, the fed is concerned about the labor market gaining momentum from here. to your point, absolutely. wanls have been inching higher. when we look at the overall income component, it has been waning down to a 3% growth rate. still positive but down from 4% at the start of the year. and down from 6% at the end of 2014. it's still that second derivative decliner that consumers are seeing when they look at their household balance sheet. in terms of employment, again, still positive. but we're trending at a pace less than 180,000. at the end of last year when the fed opted to raise rates for the first time in eight years, we were gaining jobs at a nearly 250,000 pace. it depends if you're focused on the glass half full, glass half empty. but we're still seeing downward momentum from where the fed told us we would be in the aftermath of that first rate hike. >> we were talking earlier -- >> that's a good point, steve. >> you go ahead, michael. >> i was just going to say i think we're seeing a lot of people choosing that glass half full. not only are the consumers going out for the shopping season, but i think buyers on wall street are doing the same thing. every one of these programs that we think we're really going to like from the administration and clearly a year off, we're embracing. and any of the bad stuff we're dismissing. we have a real bull market glass half full mentality driving prices higher without a lot of evidence and indeed the dollar surge is going to trend gdp. the higher interest rates are going to hurt that consumer too. so right now it feels like we're getting caught up in the euphoria and maybe this emperor trump may not be wearing as many clothes as people think. >> what would derail markets, how much more of an increase can they take? >> you know, it's a great question. whenever it starts to affect the consumer. and i think we're already seeing with the mortgage rates already at 4% and higher, we should start to see housing sales slow. i leave that to steve, of course. but i think we'll start to see that car purchases. it depends if they stay there for awhile. but this 2.38% level on the 10-year this morning, that's a big number. that's the number barry called for and all have been looking for for quite a while. that's a big deal today. 2.38% on the 10-year. if we break through that, we could see weakness. >> all right. we will watch for that number. thanks guys and lady. >> thank you. coming up, thanksgiving on the road. what to expect if you're traveling this weekend. that's next. and a lot still ahead on "squawk box" including breaking economic news. a preview of apple's black friday and a look inside the toy economy this holiday season. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. at the marine mammal center, the environment is everything. we want to do our very best for each and every animal, and we want to operate a sustainable facility. and pg&e has been a partner helping us to achieve that. we've helped the marine mammal center go solar, install electric vehicle charging stations, and become more energy efficient. pg&e has allowed us to be the most sustainable organization we can be. any time you help a customer, it's a really good feeling. it's especially so when it's a customer that's doing such good and important work for the environment. together, we're building a better california. welcome back. apple celebrating black friday with seasonal deals. it's skipped out on the shopping event in past years. but instead of offering sales on its products, the iphone maker is bundling in gift cards worth up to $150 on select purchases. you'll get a $100 gift card when you buy an ipad pro. we'll have more on apple and black friday discounts in the next half an hour. >> doesn't necessarily like black friday, apple. >> interesting sign of a strong brand that doesn't feel it needs to embrace it. more fallout from the strike at lufthansa. they canceled 800 flights today and tomorrow. affecting more than 30,000 passengers. the pilot union putting pressure on the company's management asking for an average annual pay increase. lufthansa has canceled more than 2600 flights since they started striking this week. shares of lufthansa which trade over in europe lower by right now 0.75%. generally it's true france and germany in general. one of the busiest weekends to hit the road. phil lebeau is on the road with what to expect this holiday travel season. >> reporter: today black friday people usually look at and say it's going to be light traffic out there. yes, that's true. a lot of people who are usually going into work are not working or in the case of many americans, millions of americans, they are shopping. so the folks at waze which is the navigation app owned by google. you put in where your destination is, they give you the best route there with the least traffic jams, the fewest delays, et cetera. they've crunched the data. look at the top destinations when it comes to black friday. they've broken it down by some categories. overall, more destinations -- in other words, people type in take me to a particular walmart or the closest walmart. up 85% on black friday. there you see the other top destinations. costco, bed bath & beyond. not surprised the top restaurant people are looking for destinations to, mcdonald's. but these two stats really shouldn't surprise us, but they really put into perspective just how crowded the roads are on sunday when everybody is returning from thanksgiving weekend. you have traffic jam alerts up 240%. accident alerts -- i don't know if you use waze but it shows you if there's an accident ahead, it's up 100%. the bottom line is this. much heavier traffic on sunday. later today you'll see a pickup in traffic. but it's just interesting to take a look at where people are headed and what they're looking for when they're out there typing in different destinations on the navigation app. >> dana telsey was really impressed by that data showing where people were going in terms of walmart. right? >> i loved it. up 85%. that's terrific data. the ability to plug in where they're going. one of the interesting things are what's the least retailer -- the retailer that is the least number of people who want to go to it. >> that i would love to know. >> i'm going to go check them out. i want to speak to them. thank you, phil. >> reporter: i'm sure they can tell you. you bet. >> thanks, phil. coming up, may for force be with you. "star wars" themed smartphones flying into japan ahead of "star wars" rogue 1. we're coming right back. welcome back to "squawk box." the futures now suggesting a positive open. new high for the dow yesterday. if we continue like this, it would be another strong session as we look at the u.s. futures at this hour. calling all "star wars" fans including michelle. softbank celebrating the release of "rogue one" by releasing "star wars" themed smartphones. you can choose dark side and light side. and additions of the android. the phone features a "star wars" themed alarm clock, ring tones, and emojis. on sale in japan in early december. >> i want to see the back of them. otherwise it's still normal. >> would you choose the dark side or light side? >> dark because i like a black phone. but fundamentally my morals are good. >> i loved luke sky walker. football fans treated to three courses of nfl games on thanksgiving to go along with your turkey, stuffing, and pumpkin pie. the lions hosted the vikings. score tied with 30 seconds left when sam bradford's pass was intercepted. that would set up a game-winning field goal. detroit with a buzzer beater beating minnesota 16-13. longtime rivals washington redskins traveling to dallas taking on the cowboys. check out this catch by dallas receiver terrance williams. just managed to get his toes down in the end zone for the touchdown. >> look at that. >> look at that. there it is. he is in upon further review it's called a touchdown. dallas unfortunately went on to win 31-25. in the night cap the pittsburgh steelers in indianapolis to take on the colts. it was all pittsburgh. steelers won big over the colts 28-7. >> you don't love america's team? >> i'm a giants fan. i have been imbred to -- >> i won't pass judgment. >> -- to not like dallas. i'd like to like dallas. they're a fine football team. i just can't like dallas. >> but you just don't. >> not your cup of tea. >> whereas you read it neutral the first time. you shoed your true colors in this read. >> i have friends who like dallas and to look at that rookie quarterback and that rookie running back, it is extraordinary to watch. i would like to like them. but just cannot. >> fair enough. fair enough. still to come here on "squawk box," breaking economic news just minutes away from key trade data. we'll bring you those numbers next. plus we told you earlier that black friday is back for apple. we'll tell you what it means for the tech giant. as we head to break, dow up by 60 points. we're back in a couple minutes. welcome back. we're just seconds away from u.s. trade deficit data. let's take a look at the interest rate complex this morning. the 10-year, 2.37%. and michelle's going to tell me if that's at or near -- i think we hit 2.40% but not on a closing basis. >> 2.43%. >> it's the closing record? >> no. the high of wednesday. >> what's the close record is my question. >> you'd have to go back to -- >> i thought you said you did that. >> no you have to go back to paul volcker. >> i meant recently. let's take a look at the 2-year now. we were 1.15% before. now it's 1.14% and change. >> it was 1.17% on wednesday. >> question we may ask dana or rick -- let's go to rick with the numbers right now. good morning, rick. >> good morning. the october trade balance which of course is a trade deficit is $62 billion. that's about $3 billion more of a deficit than we were expecting. last month a very subtle revision by still hanging with a $56 billion handle. now, $62 billion is kind of interesting because it's about the fifth biggest this year. it's not that bad really. the high water mark was june at $64 billion. so it fits right in. of course we still have some inventories data to come out. retail inventories up 0.4%. i'm sorry. down 0.4%. wholesale inventories also down 0.4%. both these are definitely different than we expected. we expected inventories to be up a couple of tenths both retail a enwholesale. does it mean? inventory being down sometimes can be a good thing. hopefully it's because all the widgets are flying off the shelves. we've seen a lot of cycles. maybe we're actually getting the rubber to the road in this regard. some of the numbers look good and that seemed to coincide with the surprise election given a sort of extra couple of cylinders to the engine. the big story, of course, is what you were all discussing. interest rates. the high close on yield for this move cycle is 235.5 from last week. looks like a chance to break it today. dollar index down a quarter. when you're hovering, that isn't such a big deal. but we do have one other issue we want to focus on, of course. that is the notion of how much higher can interest rates go. the market isn't the market it used to be. and i still think that we're looking at a lot of offsides type trading. those are huge bias in this market that even if rates went up, they'd be capped. but now all bets are off. and u.s. leads not only on the notion of its central bank going in a more tightening direction, but also the notion that there's fairy dust back inside the system. the fed couldn't do it. many other entities in the u.s. tried to do it. that fairy dust, that magic, that confidence. it's back. no legislation has been pased on the new information. but the markets are hopeful to the extent that rates may go higher than many think. >> when does that fairy dust run out? >> well, you know, in the old days and you're a sharp guy in the old days it was self-governing, so to speak. rates would go up to a certain level, it would thereat l back. the problem with trying to pick that spot this time, wilfred, is we don't really know where rates would be if it wasn't for all the thumbs on the scale not only here but across the scale over the last handful of years. but if i had to pick one level at least for the next quarter or so, anybody above a 260 to 262. i think that is your biggest resistance level well above current rates. >> thank you, rick. the trade balance number but of course it is the trade deficit. we assumed for what decades now that it's a trade deficit. this is one of the issues in this election, right? that donald trump has not explicitly stated by implicitly stated we should not accept that it's always going to be a trade receive did it. >> well, yeah. there's an immediate issue here which is this number being a little more than expected or quite a bit more than expected really raises -- it's going to be a subtraction from growth. unless it shows up in inventories. i'm trying to -- >> gdp could be lower because of this number? >> right. subtraction from ultimate growth here. so we need to look at where these inventories went. possibly this is retailers being optimistic about the upcoming season. you said retail inventories were light. so something comes into the border, it has to go somewhere. so what ends up being a negative ends up being a positive some place else. trying to figure out where it went. but it's an important number to follow. it helped us out for the third quarter and we'll see about the impact on the fourth quarter. ultimately you talk about a fascinating topic which is about reversing the deficit and trying to get more jobs and less subtraction on the deficit. >> more on politics right now, rumors are swirling as we get more clues about who will be in president-elect trump's administration. eamon javers joins us now. >> reporter: good morning. we don't know who else exactly will join the administration, but we do have word for you on donald trump's thanksgiving menu. here's down at mar-a-lago in palm beach. the president-elect is surrounded by family down there. they've gave us an idea of what's on the menu last night including large florida stone crabs, mr. trump's wedge salad, also pan sered chilean sea bass, and three layer trump chocolate cake. of course they said there was some turkey on the menu as well. not taking the entire day off, he said in a tweet late yesterday he was in fact working. here's the tweet from donald trump yesterday. he said i'm working hard even on thanksgiving trying to get carrier air conditioning company to stay in the u.s. all caps, making progress, will know soon. that led to the inevitable question for carrier, what are you going to do about that plant in indiana which became the focal point of so much on the campaign trail this year in 2016. carrier tweeted about an hour later saying carrier has had discussions with the incoming administration and we look forward to working together. nothing to announce at this time. to so the question is whether there's something to announce in the future. could we see something today or over the weekend for the workers in indiana whose jobs are being outsourced to mexico. will carrier -- his first political victory over the holiday. >> have you seen this before? has a company backed down to this kind of pressure that you recall? >> i can't think of one just off the top is of my head here. but they have found themselves in the political cross hairs in the past of course. it's not a comfortable position for corporate executives. you might think whatever they lose financially by keeping those jobs in the united states, they might gain politically. and you might say with a new administration coming in, the carrier executives might decide, look, this is just worth it for us to get out of the political cross hairs even hope it's going to cost us. >> a major defense contractor. there's implications there too, right? >> and the question is whether shareholders and wall street will forgive them for that move or whether they'll punish them for that move. to maximize profits for shareholders. now the political winds have changed. the incoming administration is going to put pressure on a lot of those companies to bring jobs back to the united states. you look at a company like apple and you think what kind of pressure will they be under over the course of the next year. and what tools will donald trump really have to force those companies to go against their economic best interests in this era of globalization. all of that to be sorted out as we go along here. >> great stuff. thank you very much for that. >> you bet. >> we're going to talk about apple now but under a different topic. because black friday is back for the tech giant who previously sat out on the shopping rush festivities. offering deals which might give a boost to the slumping iphone sales. joining us now ed lee. good morning to you. >> morning, guys. >> let's kick off with apple. they have joined the black friday discount party. but not wholeheartedly. >> and we don't know exactly all the things they're going to offer discounts. they've done a hundred dollars off a laptop. it's not a huge discount. so people look at that as you're not really doing this. apple is a funny company that way. they have necessary items everyone needs or wants an iphone. it's an important thing for people to want to have. people are going to buy that anyway. if you want get a deal, you can try to get it, of course. laptops, these higher end items seen as luxury goods. if you're going to buy it, you're going to buy it. they don't need to participate the way other companies do. >> they hadn't done deals to show the strength of their brand. the fact they have, does it sho e the weakness of their iphone sales? >> it does. i think that's an absolute factor here. they're still experimenting with the different discounts and ways to participate and sort of new sales opportunities. i think, you know, the head of the merchandising for apple, it's unclear their overall strategy. that's always a great selling point. but they've traditionally not been great at participating in sort of traditional sales channels, traditional sales opportunity zblps this story is not that far from the prior story. app sl potentially going to come under some pressure from the political side as well. can they make more iphones in the -- >> of course they can. but then you pay $2,000 for an iphone, they're manufactured in the u.s. no problem. i think longer term, you know, there might be -- i think apple's plan for domestic sort of workers is, look, we have a growing services business. we have a growing sort of, you know, just our intellectual property. that's where they want to add workers. that's their growth in terms of the u.s. workforce. in terms of the actual products, it's hard to kind of get the same economies of scale by manufacturing these things in the u.s. >> and another political factor for apple if we did see a low off tax to repatriate cash abroad, what should they be doing with that cash? would they jump on that opportunity? >> like $200 billion they've got offshore and they get a nice tax holiday break bringing it back, yeah, you know you should buy uber if i was them. if they're interested and if they're serious about a new product, self-driving cars is one of their big pushes. they've pulled back on that more recently. >> but this is important. this is very important. because does apple lack the cash or the borrowing ability to do anything it wants in the united states right now? and will that $200 billion change one wit what they do? >> that's a great point. they've got enough might, enough power and cash that they can do what they want. at the same time i think you had that much cash on your books. it does change our calculus a bit. there are other big things to go out for whether it is an uber or other major technology you don't have in house. >> it would make a buyback easier for sure. >> of course that would boost the stock. carl icahn could jump back into the mix and say hey. >> selling more square foot. >> it's one of the biggest throughout. >> and how much is it when i see best buy sales does it depend whether they've got a cool new phone or not? >> it helps. best buy didn't get the watches at the beginning. only a couple of them. then as watches start doing better, they got it. but what do you see in terms of the upgrade cycle? >> this past one we saw the new iphone. i think next year is the big year when iphone 8 comes out, it'll be the tenth anniversary. >> is this a big day for them. profitable day. >> they're going to take full advantage of today. analysts arm of adobe estimates a 15% gain over the same time last year. yes, it's going to be big for online shoppers. >> thanks so much. coming up, let the countdown to christmas begin. we'll talk to a top toy expert about which dolls and gadgets will be bringing in the bucks this year. that's next. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tired of it. are you entirely prepared to retire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e*trade. i'm in vests and as a vested investor in vests i invest with e*trade, where investors can investigate and invest in vests... or not in vests. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." you may have heard us earlier talking about velvet jackets. terry lundgren offering one to steve and it's arrived. but i'm slightly sad. >> you should be angry. i'm wearing this red velvet jacket. it's so nice and soft. >> where's mine? i wanted one too. >> and it's a slim fit. >> and i thought we had a deal where you were going to do it and i was going to do it and then you bailed on me. >> he didn't send me one. terry bailed on me. >> terry, thank you very much. >> it looks great. steef, it's very hugh hefner. >> i never would have thought myself in velvet at all. >> in the modern day now. >> is this the thing they do. is it good quality velvet. >> it is. >> i have to talk to our ethics people whether or not i can accept this. >> it's only 60 bucks, pay for it. >> is it within our rules? i'm going to leave the tag on. >> you have to wear it christmas also. >> okay. >> we know who terry's favorite is. >> thank you, terry. >> let's check in with morgan brennan. she's live at jcpenney's. >> reporter: good morning. happy day after thanksgiving. so we're inside jcpenney and thanksgiving has been good to jcpenney app least this long island location. they opened their stores yesterday at 3:00 p.m. marking the earliest of the major retailers to open up on thanksgiving. and since then it has been extremely busy in this store. i'll show you what i mean here. you can see merchandise on the floors, boxes on the floors. the staffers are only just now getting around to cleaning up parts of this store. and yesterday we saw long lines coming into jcpenney ahead of its afternoon opening. and in terms of what's being sold, store staffers here are telling me they're selling a lot of athleisure, boot, makeup through the sephora boutiques. also a lot of appliances. particularly packages of appliances which the retailer just started selling as a bet on the housing recovery as part of its turnaround strategy. now, amid growing competition, jcpenney likely with other ideals much earlier this year than in years passed. it pushed out ads to mobile users. ahead of thanksgiving. so that's jcpenney. but i tell you this location is attached to its roosevelt field mall which is owned by simon property group. i'll tell you put out in the mall a lot of foot traffic out there as well. we've seen that since early this morning. lines come into some of the retailers there. when i was out, a lot of car traffic and other shopping complexes. i drove by a lot of cars in the parking lot. i say that because both as a consumer and a reporter who's covered black friday in the past, it feels busier out here than in years past. guys? >> thank you so much. in fact, let's discuss more about what people are shopping for. let's talk about toys. because there's always a super hot toy. laura shact is here on the set. she's the toy insider moms toy officer. good to have you here. what do you have here? >> let's start with smart tech. you can grab it on black friday. this is the curio watch. they're known for tablets for kids but now they have wearable technology. with these watches kids can actually play games, take pictures, videos, add effects. but this is also bluetooth connected. kids can connect to each other. >> can you monitor where your kid is? >> not on this. but when parents connect -- kids connect to their parents' phones they can make and receive calls too. $59.99. usually $29.99 today. toys r us. >> this is a classic. >> we haven't seen this in 30 years. it is back. >> i played this when i was a kid. >> usually $19.99. now going to be $10 at toys r us. >> there's no chips in this though. >> how do you feel about the toy retailers this season? >> i think they have some new things that will make it interesting. not just this. it's trolls also. there's some life in toys. >> would you buy the stocks? hasbro? >> don't know the manufacturers as well. the retailers, walmart's going to benefit from toys. >> run through the other stuff over there. hurry up. >> we all remember it. it's it's going to be 50% off at kohl's today. >> lincoln logs. >> lincoln logs, 100 years old. >> i love that. >> is it still made from wood? >> it is still made from wood and made in the usa by the way. >> love the analog toys coming back. thank you so much. analog is back. >> the toy and the jacket. >> christmas early. >> when we return, much more from guest host dana tulsy as black friday kicks into high gear. stay tuned, we're back in just a minute. is it because so many go after it the same way? chasing after short term returns. instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the investment managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with risk-management rigor, to seek out global opportunities. we manage over a trillion dollars this way, attracting many of the world's leading investors. partner with pgim. the global investment management businesses of prudential welcome back. let's get to our guest host. what's so funny? >> it's the jacket. >> the jacket? what jacket? oh, this jacket. >> it's great. >> dana, it's my special pleasure, every day i get to do the day after thanksgiving. tell us some of the winners and losers. >> i think coach is going to be a winner this holiday season. >> okay. >> i think you're going to see ulta the cosmetics area be a winner this holiday season. typically the day after thanksgiving, black friday, is the largest appliance retail sales day of the year. >> appliances? >> yeah. people go out and buy refrigerators? >> yes. there's great deals and they're buying for themselves. >> stoves, washing machines. >> jc penney. >> look, honey, i bought you a washing machine for christmas. how would that go over in your home? >> not well. i think foot locker will do well this season. best buy should do nicely. >> and who not? >> i think you're going to see some of those apparel retailers have a tough time. >> tell me about this tiffany's store right next to donald trump's home. >> that tiffany store, the new york store, counts for around 8% of their sales. >> not anymore. >> it will be interesting to see as we go through the holiday season. that's their annual sales. so they're getting destination shoppers, definitely with the tourist trend and in terms of people walking through it's not as much. >> how worried will they be throughout his administration he still uses his trump tower a lot? would that be a big hit to them too? >> you have the side entrance and online. biggest thing with tiffany is new products are coming out. check out the customized watch. >> what about gucci and prada. >> it's tough. you mentioned you bought a new skirt, we hear a lot of people are. >> guy told me 100% hit rate for people who were able to get in the store. they felt victorious so they felt they had to buy something. >> you didn't talk about like dick's sporting goods. >> thomas at the palisades mall and seeing good traffic in dick's sporting goods. that seems to be working. he's there with his daughter al li. i think overall sporting goods not as strong as it was last year. >> last year was a big year. >> continued strength. >> what about surprises? >> some of the jewelry areas weaker. >> kay's done a lot of advertising. >> and frankly giving deals. comp stores were better than expected but still down versus last year. >> always great having you on. >> thank you so much for having me. >> coming up, today's top stories and stocks to watch ahead of the opening bell. we'll be right back. there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." 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[ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs. yeah! even before they earned 3% back on gas. danny's parents used their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to give him the best day ever. that's the joy of rewarding connections. learn more at bankofamerica.com/getcashback. welcome back. earlier we asked you to send us tweets about your black friday experience. i'm wearing a red velvet jacket. one viewer at cabela's today. here's his view from the line before it opened this morning. >> look at that. >> opens in 30 minutes, line halfway around the store. thank you from macy's for sending me this red jacket. >> you look fantastic. >> and a couple other props. >> i know what you're saying, wilfred. >> good year for the retailing stock ths coming year? >> i think 2017 will be a good year for retailing stocks. more money in the hands of consumers, more money in the hands of retailers. all right. let's look at the markets, pay attention today, dow and s&p all-time closing highs on wednesday. right now the markets were open here, s&p would open higher by 3, dow by 55 and nasdaq by 3. so the s&p and dow would be if they closed at these levels today at yet more new all-time highs. >> and we've got a little bit of oil price weakness this morning. we had sort of flat to soft market at the moment in european trade. asian trade was slightly positive this morning. our thanks to dana. she'll be back monday morning with the rundown of actually what happened on black friday and who is the best winners. thanks also to steve and michelle. that's it for "squawk box." "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ the rush is on. black friday finally here as the unofficial start to the holiday shopping season gets underway. as bargain hunters line up looking for deals, we're going to also explore how you can make money in the retail sector. good morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with sara eisen and mike santoli and we are live from the new york stock exchange. jim and carl both off today. markets close

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