Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20161101 : comparemela.com

bond yields at zero. yen this morning, the nikkei higher by 17 points, hang seng higher by 212 and shanghai composite by 21.5. there you go. back here in the u.s., deadly pipeline explosion yesterday in shelby, alabama. one person was killed and five others injured after part of the colonial pipeline burst. colonial shut down its main pipeline after the incident. this is the second time in two months hit to close the pipeline which is a crucial supplier for the east coast. in an update late last night colonial said a track hoe, a machine used to remove dirt struck the pipeline and caused the gasoline to ignite. the october ism manufacturing index in september and construction spending are due out today 10:00 a.m. eastern time. automakers will report their sales throughout the morning but ford won't release its sales figures. those numbers are delayed following a fire at ford's dearborn, michigan headquarters yesterday. they are now expected later in the week. the fed begins a two day policy meeting with a decision expected tomorrow 2:00 p.m. eastern time. and as for earnings today pfizer, adm, coach, kellogg all report before the opening bell. after the close we hear from gilead sciences and electronic arts. >> did anybody go trick or treating. >> i saw you on instagram with tim armstrong. >> yeah. >> had a big costume going. >> where was that party. >> at thewaldorf-astoria. >> i don't know her personally. it's a charity event pup buy. >> did you hand out candy >> we were prepared so. >> nobody came to the house. >> a long windy scary -- since the houses are four, five acres away frech other. no we went to dinner. we left individuals at the door at home, a couple of german shepherds. >> did you leave candy at the door. >> honestly no one does come. it's not that there's a neighborhood where everybody goes. >> we just walked in the apartment building. >> can you go house house to. >> up and down. >> lots of candy. >> 16 floors of candy. >> father of the year award goes to a guy, i don't know if you saw this on an airplane. he had to take his 3-year-old daughter on the lean. he walks down the aisle and gives everybody candy and then she walks down the aisle. >> gets the candy back. >> the father walks on the plane, recreates halloween. >> so nice. >> then she got the same candy that her father gave them. they to be on the plane. it was so important. little 3-year-old had to miss. where did they have to go that was so important? >> that part i don't know. i don't know the full story. >> could have rescheduled things. >> lots of kids in your building? no kids in my bulling. >> that's why you have that building. >> that's true. >> stocks to watch. >> bp's third quarter profit rose 35% beating forecast as it cut costs to offset oil prices. they are maintaining its dividend. in similar vein royal dutch shell third quarter net profit rose 18%, beating expectations. oil giant says next year capital spending will be about 25 billion at the low end of the expected range. and sony's fiscal scanned quarter profit fell by more than 80% hurt by a strong yen and lagging smartphone sales. they cut its full year earnings forecast citing it's battery business. >> new details emerging on fbi's investigation of hillary clinton's emails. source telling cnbc news authorities are conductsing a preliminary probe into donald trump's former campaign manager, eamon javers has all of the stories this morning. break it down for us. >> reporter: good morning. this is one that nbc news reported last night. we have an excerpt of their reporting. here's what they are saying. they are saying the fbi has been conductsing a preliminary inquiry into donald trump's information campaign manager paul manafort's foreign business connections according to law enforcement and intelligence source, speaking to nbc news they go on to say word of inquiry which has not blossomed into a full blown criminal investigation comes days after james comey's disclosure that his agency is examining a new batch of emails in the hillary clinton situation. paul manafort said there's no investigation going on by the fbi that he's aware of. significant new development. so much attention focused on james comey in the wake of his decision last week on friday to go public with the fact that the fbi has recovered additional e-mails that may be relevant in that clinton probe. the fbi is now, i'm told, going through those emails very carefully using a software program to determine if any of the emails are, in fact, new. things that they have not seen before. they examined quite a few emails in this probe but looking at this new batch that was found on huma abedin and anthony weiner's laptop in order to determine whether there's anything there that could be relevant. the question is whether comey will address any of this between now and the election. we're sort of in unchartered territory here as one official told me. >> one of the things that hasn't been discussed as much but was in a "wall street journal" article about five or six paragraphs deep into the internal feud that the report going on that the fbi, is there now also unanimous query into the foundation as well? >> reporter: there seemed to be quite a number of investigations that are all around the clinton land, so to speak, the clinton universe. that "wall street journal" story is worth going back and rereading because it gives you a sense of the deep schisms inside law enforcement how to proceed. based on my reporting there's different factions that have different thoughts about,000 handle this internally. all of that is so intense lie magazine magnified by this political season we're in. the fbi doesn't comment on investigations and comey is commenting at a number of pounts along into way, initialing holding a press conference on friday, putting out this additional information. that's not standard practice for the fbi. comey clearly felt he had an obligation to do it, an obligation due to transparency. he didn't want to be in a position you could assume this would come out after the election and fbi be accused of hiding the ball. >> a lot of things are not done -- both the fbi and justice department -- not convening a grand jury typically would to be done -- fbi doesn't know if there's enough evidence or not. parties don't meet on tarmacs. people don't give known the second, highest ranking fbi official for his wife's campaign. there's so much -- so many undercurrents. i guess hillary just figures people continue to follow thing that closely where she said -- i mean giving a speech -- this is a staff member. i don't know if -- she didn't say this. almost like was if, like she was pretending it wasn't huma abedin. this her closest aide that has not been by her side for how many years, 20 years? >> every time she gets in the car she's the only one in the car. >> in a speech yesterday, i guess she thinks people out there in the crowd are so stupid that they don't realize. she indicated staff member. like this generic staff member who sent a few emails. >> huma abedin is about 40 years old i believe and she's been work forge hillary clinton since she was about 19. >> closest aide. >> somebody very closely associated with hillary clinton. >> that's what you would say. one i move staffers. what else would you say? >> i would say -- why does your voice get so high? is that -- >> the other thing in washington there really is a distinction between principles and staff and that's like a very clear class line, so to speak, is that rarely crossed in d.c. so -- >> we know huma abedin, we know anthony westeineweiner, they ca smoking gun and wikileaks. we know where it came from. i don't know one of my staff members had some emails. and the entire world has stein "daily news" and "new york post" headlines. even in the uk they got -- >> reporter: starting now, joe, there's two possibilities. one is they go through these emails, they use the software program i've been describing and determine there's nothing here that they haven't seen before. in that case what does james comey do before the election. other possibility they determine there's some new everyone males. >> could be the 33,000. all the stuff that was bleached, whatever, that program, that could be there. stuff that was destroyed. stuff that was in the laptops that were hit with a sledge hammer or 12 phones that were lost could be in there. could be anything. >> reporter: we don't know. we just don't know. what comey has to do today is figure out what he'll do in first scenario and what he'll do in the second scenario. does come out and publicly say nothing to see here folks move on with election or does come out and publicly say we found some evidence and how does he describe that evidence. depending on what is it that could be very tricky for him to do. this is all very tricky for him to do. he's under enormous scrutiny right now. >> my point about bringing up the possible investigation of the clinton foundation even if that all gets done before election, then there's this other thing out there that potentially is an overhang if she becomes president. >> reporter: absolutely. you can imagine republicans on capitol hill particularly if they keep control of congress which is sort of where things seem to be head but this is an unclear election year those republicans in the home will definitely launch investigations into hillary clinton, the foundation, thele scandal herself over the years. this will not end on tuesday next week. we're going to see continued reporting anthony. we'll see continued investigations into this. and it's going make it very, very difficult if hillary clinton wins the presidency next week very difficult for theory have any kind of honeymoon period where legislation can pass and typical things in washington happen. >> is it really -- i wonder if it is a black box. the original guys that were looking there, looking for sexting to a 15-year-old all of a sudden came across -- was it a month ago, two, three weeks ago. so i wonder did they immediately avert their eyes and didn't look at anything else or did they look through a bunch of stuff and go holy crap. that's what i wonder. no knowledge of forethought. or we have no idea. >> reporter: what i'm told is they did not have a warrant that allowed them to look at those emails. the mandate was only to look at weiner. >> they were allowed to look at the weiner stuff. but they would have come across the other stuff. i just wonder if there was a couple -- >> reporter: in order to examine that material i'm told they need a separate warrant which they got over the weekend. they are looking for a couple of things. one is the indication these emails came from hillary clinton's private serve and two they want to look at the time frame that narrows it down because these emails go back year and years. they want to go look at the emails in the relevant time and know what they are looking at. >> it could be that he already felt bad because he got hammered for not doing something in july, so this gave him a drredo. could be they saw a couple of things and said director comey this is blockbuster stuff. i don't know which it is. >> reporter: that's why this is a perplexing development. >> "new york times" is calling him j. edgar hoover. i like where they say fairly or not but still put it on the front page. fair or not but we're still going with that. thank you, eamon javers. back to the markets. fed gets set to kick off a two day policy meeting today joining us now is matt toms and rich steinberg. do either one of you gentlemen think that the stock market is reacting to who it thinks will win the election because it can't get out of its own way. most people think it's -- i don't know 90% think hillary clinton. why are we going up if the market wants hillary clinton. why is it going up? >> it's going to remain stuck in the mud for a while because we really have to determine who is going to be in the white house, if the democrats take the senate and what the balance of power looks like. the consensus, you know, thinks that we'll have gridlock for a while adding to your comments earlier with eamon javers, we'll be challenging confidence in the short run and we'll have to tread water until earnings starts to come through. once we get past the election and the fed meeting in december we can focus again on what drives markets which is economic growth and earnings. >> so i would think the market would like gridlock and that's what gridlock for eight years and doubled or whatever, matt, right? is it the fed? what is it. constitutent election faend? did the dollar get strong center >> that's the trinity that you mentioned. we think the u.s. consumer -- >> you call it a trinity. >> that's right. the consumer we think doesn't like the uncertainty of the election and we like the election to get out of the way and can you have a bounce in confidence and that's potentially under estimated in the markets here. >> if you had your druthers what would set us up for a sustained advance that we haven't had. we were here two years ago and we haven't gotten much traction. what would it be? set up the goldilocks scenario. the dollar comes down even though the fed raises rates, hillary gets elected, the senate falls but the house stays the same. >> i think the global factors are the most important there, joe. the dollar with a fed that's hiking but doing so in a measured and slow fashion can weaken and most important indicators we're seeing are re-engagements of global growth. that could allow the dollar to weaken. could buoy knot prices. and give the fed a nice path of gradual hikes starting in december. >> so, all right. if that happens, rich, your get out of dividend yields now. go into cyclical stocks? what do you suspect on friday. will it show we're adding a lot of jobs and gdp is at -- people are saying wow it's 3%. we're rip roaring. >> we're expecting consensus of 165,000 jobs, joe, with unemployment just under 5%. i think that sets the fed up to be able to raise quarter of a point in december. more importantly, though, if we look at earnings since september 30th, with 2017 earnings have come down from 13% growth to 12% growth. that's still a little bit too high. the goldilocks scenario will be that interest rates don't go up too fast and do you get this double digit eps growth which would set up the market for greater gains. there's one other part, you know, we're pretty heavy in cash and we meet with a lot of high net worth clients who are extremely nervous and skittish about the market. we could be creating a compressed spring of that cash to be redeployed once the election is over. we just may be barred from borrowing from forte pay paul if the market goes up in december unless earnings comes through for next year. >> what if half the country after this election are sick to their stomach and we stay at 70%, think we're going in the wrong direction. will that matter? will consumers need confidence and do people need to feel good about their prospects, matt, or can we muddle along. we did find at zero interest rates in the fast five years without doing too well. >> the uncertainty is the dlee. get the uncertainty out of the way. it's a stalemate in government that's good enough. >> the uncertainty sits either donald trump or hillary clinton. that leaves 50% of the people unhappy. >> or more. >> that's right. at least you'll have some chance at a policy other than monetary policy led. so monetary policy carries the day. time for government re-engage. one or the other will disappoint half. but there's a chance of policy coming out of washington. >> first four years of obama it was, the next four years all we want mitch mcconnell we'll make sure he's a one termer. same thing. you'll hear that from eritrea side they will try to be struck and make it impossible for the person that gets in. i don't know. it's not a very -- maybe it doesn't matter. not a positive political environment. thank you. thank you both. we'll talk china when we come back and talk jay leno. >> the one he told me back wargds worked but it won't happen. >> that's cruel. you can't tell the audience. >> we'll have jay leno. we'll talk about yum brands. the company facing a changing consumer taste and new category of competition in china. and then mr. leno will join us on set in just a little bit. and can you explain to me why you recommend synthetic over cedar? "super food"? is that a real thing? it's a great school, but is it the right the one for her? is this really any better than the one you got last year? if we consolidate suppliers what's the savings there? so should we go with the 467 horsepower? or is a 423 enough? good question. you ask a lot of good questions... i think we should move you into our new fund. ok. sure. but are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab. we're opening more xfinity stores closer to you. visit us today and learn how to get the most out of all your services, like xfinity x1. we'll put the power in your hands, so you can see how x1 is changing the way you experience tv with features like voice remote, making it easier and more fun than ever. there's more in store than you imagine. visit an xfinity store today and see for yourself. xfinity, the future of awesome. yum brands officially spinning off its china business today the company facing big challenges in china. >> reporter: thanks so much, andrew. yum brand is celebrating over to new york listing and well under way. the china ceo is here along with the president of the nyfc and everybody is celebrating. after the spin off the company will have $900 million in cash and no debt. so their more financially secure position can help themselves for a more aggressive move into this market. the company face as lot much challenge challenges. in the third quarter they saw anti-u.s. sentiment and there were food scandals. but the fundamental problem that they do face is something even greater and that's the first one is that yum's restaurants really don't have that aspirational quality they used to. the company has done an incredible job of entering every single corner of the country, they have brought american fast food to many chinese but chinese people don't really dream any more of eating at a kfc, for example and that's a big challenge for the company. now the second challenge for the company is the incredibly competitive landscape here for the restaurant business. yum is not only going to have to compete with its western counterparts like mcdonald's or starbucks, for example, but also a surge of chinese brands that have done very well by using the american fast food chain month daniel applying it to chinese cuisine. in addition to that the company will have to contend with this explosion of food delivery apps. so before yum had dominated this area both with kfc and pizza hut with food delivery but now pretty much anyone with a kitchen and phone can have their food delivered to someone else and that's been redefining the way chinese people understand fast food. what is the company doing? behind me there's bathe of kfc coffee sign and that's because kfc is trying to push moreno aspirational items such as specialty coffee drinks which pits it against starbucks. they are taking some of that money and renovating pizza hut to make it more upscale. finally they are doing what they've always done very well and they are innovating and localizing the menu more. so one of the new items is japanese curry on rice. you can get that at kfc and fried okcalamri. >> quick programming note ceo of yum brands and ceo of yum china will join the crowd on "squawk on the street" later today. coming up, jay leno's garage returns to cnbc with new episode as week from tomorrow. jay leno is bringing some high caliber stars with him he'll join us on set next. don't move. he'll tell us which celebrities get behind the wheel. it's not just joe biden. ican exn help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. find out how american express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open.com. find out how american express cards and services today, i am helping people work better... and also feel better. i am helping hospitals personalize treatments using billions of data points. and working with medtronic to predict the highs and lows of diabetes, hours in advance. and i am working with orreco to use biomarker data to boost the performance of athletes. hello, my name is watson. working together, we can outthink anything. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. u.s. equity futures at this hour suggest a positive open, s&p opened by six. dow open by 49 and nasdaq would open higher by 16. >> jay leno's garage returns to cnbc with all new episodes a week from tomorrow and finds jay burning rubber with some stars and even the vice president of the united states. >> sounds good. >> how are the brakes >> they're good. >> joining us right now on the set is jay leno. >> hi guys. >> same good driver. >> pretty good driver. he's had that car since -- we dan episode on original and he had that car since 1967. >> really? >> he got it as a wedding gift from his dad. he really drives it. it's so funny. vice president is not allowed to drive on the street. >> where do you do that. >> that's at the secret service training facility. >> does he get drive on weekends? >> no. we went down there and i had him race colin powell, had a democrat and republican. colin powell pumped in his new corvette. they almost crashed into each other. >> secret service is yelling slow down, slow down. it was funny. like two kids. >> does that tell us what will happen with the election? >> no, i don't think so. >> by the way have you been in a car with a bad driver >> oh, yeah. we rolled a couple of cars. >> up rolled a couple of cars >> we did a wheel stand and the car went over. then we rolled a bmw. we crashed a lot of cars. >> what is it about comedians and cars. >> jerry has a show. >> james corden is doing the car thing. >> karaoke. which is different. singing in the car -- >> i'm just saying. >> i mean for my generation the car was the iphone of the day. people go virtually. we had to go place in reality. >> you have a tlaes? >> yes. >> do you use auto pilot. >> quite a bit. >> do you think that's the future >> it's definitely the future. >> does it make you happy or sad >> makes me happy because most cars are auto pilot. people putting only stick. i was on the freeway, i look over and see a woman next to me. then she starts to change her sweater. she has her sweater over her head. i'm looking, i'm beeping. and she gets it off. she's got her bra on. i'm just trying to keep -- she puts on the other thing. this is why you need auto pilot because you have idiots out there on the freeway. >> what is happening pup get up and they are texting. >> every airplane you get on is auto pilot. this just another -- first you had anti-lock brakes then lane departure warning lights. this is just a series. >> the whole idea people say we won't be driving in 20, 30 years. you won't control -- you go to a club to drive around in a circle. >> you can't jump in the back seat with a both. scotch. you thoofb in control of the vehicle. it's another thing to protect. same thing like warning departure. driverless cars is not the right phrase. it's driver assist is what it is. it's a great thing. >> who is your favorite -- how many of you -- you've done the whole season or -- >> there's an extension. >> we just shot a piece with president bush for the third season which is fun. his first interview since he left office. we discussed a lot of things. it was fun. driving around his ranch. doing a thing on the great american pickup truck. that's the idea and various owners and he was one of the owners. you know, people really talk to you when you're driving. sometimes you sit in a room and there's cameras people get self-conscious. put a hidden camera in a room and drive around. we had a fascinating discussion. >> did you talk politic, election. >> we did. i won disclose what he said. he's a complex guy. >> as a comedian, who will provide more fodder ultimately given what's going on depending on who wins the election. >> i think hillary clinton will provide more fodder. it's traditional humor. with trump it's a little ugly with all the anti-muslim, anti-women, anti- -- you know i grew up in a simple era. clinton was horny, bush was dumb. now it's more complicated. >> i can believe you're up. >> i stayed up. die the "tonight show" last night. >> so, you were up all night. >> i read. >> you weren't driving around the city. >> no. >> okay. >> jay leno's garage. check it couldn't cnbc. we appreciate it. >> i should tell you it's back with all new episodes wednesday november 9th, 10:00 p.m. day after the elections. >> we'll all need it. >> eastern and pacific time right here on cnbc. >> coupling the executive edge we'll tell you how hedge funds stacked up against the broader markets. a quick check on what is happening in the european markets right now. they continue to be sort of -- "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: coming up dow component pfizer set to report this hour. we'll bring the numbers and instant reaction on wall street. keep watching "squawk box" where up to minus, earnings and analysis. box will be right back. a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley is that they contour to tempur-pyour body.esses... it keeps us comfortable and asleep at night. shop our biggest sale of the year, including all tempur-pedic mattresses. save up to $600, now thru november 29th. get your tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america. time now for the executive edge. u.s. markets were lower in october as global bond yields rose, oil prices gained and now they are pulling back a little and british pound posted a sharp decline and that performance was largely mirrored by the hedge fund industry. nbc has learned that third point was down .7 of a percent last month although the flagship fund is still up 6%. greenlight capital was up 1.2%. pershing square is off more than 21% for the year. wells fargo has agreed to pay $50 million to settle a racketeering lawsuit. the settlement requires court approval but fit goes through resolve claims that the bank charged much more than paid for third-party appraisal exploiting borrowers who were in default. we should note this is a separate issue than the one that dare i say took down mr. stump. viacom has named robert backish. he's a 19-year-old veteran of the company who spent the last ten years leading the company's international charters. the transition will be effective november 15th. analysts say the choice of an internal candidate in the temporary title could be an indication how quickly viacom is expected to merge with cbs. >> he looks older than 19. >> die say 19-year-old. >> 19 year veteran. >> the way it was written did you say 19-year-old? >> 19 year veteran. >> that came after. i was thinking the same thing. >> yes. >> looked good. >> prodigy. graduated from college at 16, worked for the government and went into -- >> the doogy houser of media. charms of valeant farm. shares of valeant pharmaceutical is facing strict scrutiny and its relationship with a mail order pharmaceutical. coming up anna atomy of a trump voter. why his message is resonating with rust belt voters. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. for decades, investors have used a 60/40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets can't. and even though they're called alternatives, they're actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. that's why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. translation? goodbye 60/40, hello 50/30/20. ♪ pfizer numbers, looks like it's a penny below. pfizer reporting 61 cents a share, a penny below expectations. looking for a revenue number, total revenue i'm seeing third quarter 13 billion. and i don't know how that compares to estimates. looks like that is okay. the guidance adjusted is 238 to 243 and street is at 246. so i'm not saying that they are guiding lower. yeah, they are. they are guiding lower. company had seen adjusted earnings per share of 238 to 248 and the crack analyst on the street, i don't mean crack analysts but expert analysts were able to come up with 246. now they've come down. they are going from what i just said to 238 to 243. that's below the currents consensus. the stock has been in a little bit of a decline. it's a yielder. almost 4% yield, 3.8% yield. they adjusted some r and d expenses now. looks like those will go up a little bit. 7.8 to 8.1. had been 7.4 to 7.8. a mixed report from pfizer. we'll speak to barbara ryan about these numbers. the revenue number was basically in line. that's pretty close. we have to go out three or four decimal points. the bottom line is it was a penny below guidance. >> one week until election day. both candidates are hitting the battleground states to make their case for president. for more let's bring in an ohio native, j.d. vance, author of "hillbilly elegy," a memoir describing the humble upbringing in the rust belt ohio where it shows trump and clinton in a tight race. thanks for joining us. second time i interviewed, the first time i hadn't read your book. i read your book now. it's terrific. let's set the stage. you consider your sale of hillbilly, right? what is that? >> yeah. well it's somebody with deep ties to the region of applachia. that's the most important part. >> up got on the talk show circuit because you know why so many people support donald trump. tell us why. >> well, yeah. i don't know if i have special insight but some people apparently think i do. i think that what people don't totally appreciate about the trump phenomenon is that the areas where he's most popular are areas that are struggling in a lot of different ways. we talk about economic anxiety and that's one side of it. you look at the areas where trump is most popular it's areas where you have rising mortality rates, heroin and prescription drug epidemic has taken root and other indicators of social well being like the incarceration rate, family breakdown rate are going in the wrong direction. trump has tapped into this sense that people feel that the country isn't going in a right direction and that's what's fueled his rise. >> you got out of what was a tough upbringing thanks to your grandmother, yale law degree. you are the american success story. why do you think you made it and part of your book we should say is critical of the whole efforts for war on poverty that you didn't think that the government understood what they should be doing or how to fix it. i would like to see a renewed focus on that self-sufficiency. what made the difference for me like you said it was my grandma. or even because of their families. that's something we've got deal with as a country because if you look at the statistics it's a very significant problem and i think it's one of the big drivers of why we don't have quite as much upper mobility in this country. >> when i read your book, one of the internal questions do we have a race problem or said class protein america. when i i read your book maybe have been forgotten in many ways. that's one of the reasons why this election has been where it is. >> i think there's definitely an element of truth to that. we have a race and class problem in the country. we're not really good about talking about the class issues. we don't have a vocabulary to capture why it is that so many people in the middle of the country aren't doing so well with the so-called coastal elites. but i definitely agree with you that we've got to get better in talking about those issues and hopefully eventually dealing with them. >> j.d., you were born in part of -- was it west virginia? where were you born? kentucky. where'd you move to? ohio? eastern ohio? >> so i grew up in southwest ohio but my family had a lot of connection to eastern kentucky so i spent time there. >> you grow up in cincinnati then? >> not too far. not in cincinnati by any means. about 30 miles north of cincinnati. >> north did you say? >> yeah, that's right. >> okay. i happened to watch one of the kennedy daughters of one -- did you see the hollow? ever see that documentary about growing up in eastern -- because it was amazing. a real feel for what went on. i mean, it's poignant as well as -- people have a lot of heart. and they are optimistic, but they're up against a lot of negative forces. unfortunately. >> yeah. that's absolutely right. people have an innate optimism about them i think is admirable. but one of the things happening in the country right now is that optimism is starting to dissipate. i think reality and circumstances on the ground are starting to take away people's sense that tomorrow's going to be better than today. that's obviously affecting not just our politics but our culture in a lot of problematic ways. >> why did that happen? >> well, why are folks not doing quite as well as they used to? >> i don't know. i mean -- you described a situation. i don't know if the answer is economic or psychological or -- what i -- the sense i got from your book is several generations in a row would consistently make bad decisions collectively. and i didn't see how -- why didn't that change over time? >> yeah, well, one of the things i write about in the book is culture is sticky. you don't go to having a middle class wage and all of a sudden you change all of your attitudes, habits and beliefs of the life you left behind. so part of the reason that that optimism has dissipated is it has gotten harder economically for people in this part of the country -- think about the west virginia coal mines, the southern ohio steel mills. there's an economic component going on. but i also think there's something about the way that folks in this community have lost hope that isn't totally economic. that it's not purely they're not earning as much as they used to. it's something i write about a fair amount in the book. but it's a little bit too tempting for folks in the press to say it's economic or not. but it's probably both and a lot more beyond that. >> j.d., thanks for joining us from cincinnati. pleasure to have you. >> great. thank you, guys. all right. i was just looking up that -- it's called "american hollow." fascinating. >> that documentary. >> rory kennedy, one of the close knit -- just happened to watch the whole thing. cincinnati where i grew up, that's the closest big city to a lot of parts of appalachia. a lot of reds fans come up. it's now this bohemian -- it's called like over the rind. >> i highly recommend his book. >> yeah. i don't know if i have the hillbilly elegy but i don't shrink away from some roots. >> when we come back, judd gregg is here. he's going to talk all things politics and the economy. plus the fed kicking off a two-day policy meeting. steve leisman is dropping by. he's got the exclusive results from our survey. "squawk box" returns with all that and more when we return. ♪ we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley. the markets facing head winds in november, a possible rate hike from the fed, and the dow hitting three negative months in a row. are we setting ourselves up for a santa claus rally? we'll discuss what investors need to watch as we head into the final two months of 2016. it's open enrollment season with premiums expected to rise 20% on average. what can obamacare customers expect and will the system change after the election? we discuss is that topic straight ahead. with the election one week away, hillary clinton challenging the latest fbi e-mail probe. >> go ahead, look at them. >> plus did an ex-trump campaign manager have foreign ties? the fbi making an inquiry into that claim. we squawk the vote with former new hampshire governor judd gregg as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" this morning here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and michelle caruso-cabrera. and in studio is judd gregg. we'll hear from him on the election, economy, and much more throughout the hour. dow looks it would open up higher about 45.5 points higher. nasdaq 15 points higher and the s&p 500 6.5 points higher. the fed's latest policy statement at 2:00 p.m. eastern time tomorrow. the consensus is the fed will not raise rates this time around but will do so in december. ford's report won't come out until later in the week due to a fire at ford's headquarters. edmonds.com is expecting a drop in u.s. sales compared to a year ago. tesla will be holding a webb cast this afternoon. it will post new information and answer questions for about 30 minutes. 5:00 p.m. eastern time. and as earnings continue to pour in, other issues like the election, fed, and jobs data due later this week taking a toll on stocks. joining us to talk about it. does the election matter at all in terms of what happened here? there are people who said over the past few days this is either a trump rally, a clinton rally, a something. or is it an earnings situation? >> i don't think what's happening in the election right now is directly having an effect on the market. at least not in the near term. i think we are focusing on two things. first earnings season is turning out to be pretty good. you look at about three-quarters of the company they're beating by a large margin. i think is the other thing is something you mentioned before. we have a fed meeting coming up. it looks like we don't expect to see a rate hike in november. i think the fed is going to continue doing this cautious messaging here. >> to the extent that the fed is what's driving the markets right now, therefore i would think the presidential election would be driving the markets right now given that the comments that have been made thus far by different fed officials would suggest that if hillary clinton were to win, we would see an uptick in rates in december. if trump were to win, maybe not. >> well, there's a common thread running through all of this. we saw a good earnings out of financials. financial stocks have reacted really well. the market's expecting the fed to hike in december. the real debate is what do they do next? and we've seen long-term yields climb. that's all been good for the banks. to the extend we've had a decent market in recent weeks. >> what do you think is driving the m&a gain? we had the baker hughes transaction happen yesterday with the at&t transaction the week before. you know, in a market where typically nothing happens prior to an election, what does it say about what's happening? >> first of all, what we have to be careful with is we need to remove the m&a cycle from the election cycle. we're putting everything into the election box right now. companies will make decisions based on the long-term opportunities they see in the market. what you're seeing now is more strategic m&a. this is not being driven by tax reasons, why slashing balance sheets. let me go back to something you said before about the election about having a market. i don't think this is the primary thing that's having the biggest impact. however, to the extent that this increases the likelihood that we do see republicans maintain control of at least one house and likely democrats continue to lead in the white house. this status quo, this split between the parties in terms of the executive and legislative branches, that's the best outcome. >> but it means none of the things we talk about on this show that we talk about with the senator and governor around, you know, fixing regulation, all of the stuff we can plan about every day that anything will happen the next four years. >> i'm confused. because the day -- i mean, the news about hillary clinton, the new investigation broke at 12:59:20. so at 1:00, the market fell dramatically. >> 50 points. >> but if you look at the intraday chart, it was close. >> we closed down eight and then were up monday and up tuesday. if you look at the last three months as the hillary clinton election has supposedly become inevitable, we've been down three straight months. so to try to figure out any -- i don't know what it means. but we're not doing anything. and the financials, the earnings were only gootd on a relative basis. >> certainly not the glory days. >> i didn't finish my question, joe. which was -- >> you're talking about 50 points being a significant move in the stock market and it's not. >> but the next part of my question was the consensus if brexit happened, it would be disastrous and stocks would sell off, et cetera. it seems to me to be a fool's game to think that playing the election or betting on the election through the markets doesn't make any sense. because you have no idea what's going to happen regardless of who wins. >> a lot of people say with brexit it's an indication you never know what's going to happen. we don't know exactly what's going to happen with the election but we have a pretty good idea. but with brexit, these processes take time. and i think the election, a lot of investors are realizing that we have to see what congress looks like and what the first hundred days of policy look like. a lot of investors are thinking we need fiscal stimulus. i think what we're realizing here is there's a lot of political uncertainty that's going to be with us beyond the election. >> traders are still addicted to the fed. and the one thing in common for the last three months why the market has not made headway is december's been at 70% for a hike for the last three months. which is sad. we've even had a couple of good economic numbers that the market was unable to rally on. even based on gdp doing better or unemployment. we're still fixated my god they may go up a quarter point in december. what's the problem? because the market is stuck in the mud. look at a chart and another chart. if earnings are good, why are we down three straight months? >> first of all, i think the higher rate. raising rates by a quarter point in december. setup to this, we've seen rates rising and dollar strengthening. it's good for financials but not necessarily for the rest of the space. the other thing i want to go back to is the question you raised before, michelle, about the election outcome. the initial reaction was on, okay, does this somehow raise the probability we'll see a trump presidency. i think as you saw a more sober assessment, what this may really do is just begin to impact some of the down ballot close elections where we have some closely contested races. so to me i think it reinforces this notion. about something you said, nothing will get done. we may see things get done, but they'll be incremental change. so you may see some movements on selective tax reform especially in the corporate sector. and perhaps even some target infrastructure. >> you're analyzing a 50-point move on an average that's at 18,000 fliempb-- what is that 0? >> all i'm saying is this a knee jerk reaction. >> not 50. >> i think if you're looking for reaction of the market to the election, look what happens to congress, senate. if the republicans hold onto the senate, i think the health care stocks rally in a big way. >> so we should be at about 20,000 right now. >> we have a former senator at the table. i was just going to ask him to the extent we've been talking about what is possible in a divided government. >> a lot. actually, the only thing -- >> a lot of gridlock. >> the only thing is possible if you do have a divided government. she's going to have to go far left to take care of her base. senate will push for that. whereas if you have a republican senate and republican house and hillary's president, then she's going to have to come to the center. she's going to have to -- >> she'll have an excuse why she can't reach the left. >> and you've got in the senate at least a working actual majority that's across aisle group on big issues. on tax policy, on disability, on veterans, on all sorts -- on regulatory reform in a number of regions. so i actually think there's a lot of potential here. because hillary's biggest problem if she gets elected president is she's going to come in with more than half the country not liking her. she's going to have to embrace bipartisanship to be successful otherwise her presidency is dead in the water. >> crazy thing you said more than half. i'd say 67% untrustworthy, but only 40% don't like her. so there's 27% that are perfectly fine with -- i still like her. >> we're going to continue this conversation about politics in just a moment. before we go, prediction for the end of the year for both of you in terms of where the markets and economy end. >> i think once past the elections, i think the markets are going to move higher. >> either way? >> well, if it's the scenario between republicans holding the house, democrats taking the white house i think the markets move higher. >> my s&p target is 2150. we go 50 points higher than that if it's a republican senate. >> bold. >> thank you, guys. deadly pipeline explosion yesterday in alabama. one person was killed, five others injured as part of the colonial pipeline burst. colognial shut down the pipelin after. a crucial supplier to the east coast. in an update late last night colonial said a track hoe struck a pipe and caused the gasoline to ignite. coming up, former senator and governor judd gregg will be here. >> he already is here. >> oh that's right. he will sound off on the election. you going to sound off? >> i'll mimic what you say. >> can't go wrong there. that's almost impossible to figure out. the live ring around half of last year's results for the period. the company also warning refining margins will remain under pressure. check out crude prices at this hour. as you can see, they're basically flat. but down below 50 again. all this makes me worry about some kind of slowdown. we'll be right back. will your business be ready when growth presents itself? american express open cards can help you take on a new job, or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. find out how american express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open.com. girl: you're going to need me. you're going to need us. all of us. you're going to need our help with your water... your air, your food. you're going to need our determination, our compassion. you're going to need the next generation of leaders to face the challenges the future will bring. and we promise we'll be there when you need us. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box." the fbi has been conducting a preliminary inquiry into a trump campaign manager paul manafort. manafort has responded to the report saying they are not true and he is not aware of any investigation. law enforcement officials and intelligence sources have told nbc news that the inquiry is not a full blown criminal investigation. now separately "the new york times" reporting this morning that the fbi investigated russian interference in the american election and has found no conclusive or direct link between donald trump and the russian government. that's according to the report. intelligence officials believe the russian hacking of democratic e-mails was aimed at disrupting the election rather than electing trump. cnn has cut ties with interim dnc chairwoman donna brazile. leaked e-mails showed she offered debate questions. she came under fire earlier the this month after an e-mail showed she may have tipped off the clinton campaign about the question in a march town hall meeting. let's get to our guest host former new hampshire governor and former senator judd gregg. he recently penned an op-ed about the race for the white house. it is entitled "good people work here." in terms of -- we've talked a lot today -- you were in the green room. you probably heard. an interesting interview about hillbilly elegy and looking at a portion of the discontent in the heartland with the state of affairs in the u.s. in terms of policy prescriptions that we're going to have to address some of this stuff. you think there might be some reason for optimism. even in a divided government. what would we do? what would we try to do? for argument's sake since the media told me hillary's going to win, let's say it's hillary with a divided government. what would we do? >> well, right off the bat you'd have to have hillary before she was sworn in not in words but in action bring together republican leadership and the democratic leadership of the congress. and set out a list of items where they think they can reach bipartisan agreement. corporate tax reform would be the -- >> she hasn't given indication she's interested in anything other than raising taxes. >> that's true. but she's going have to move in that direction if she wants a presidency to accomplish something. >> obama did and he didn't. i thought sooner or later he'd come around to the notion that private sector creates jobs. that never happened. he got re-elected and is picking his successor. >> obama doesn't have an over 50% negative rating. if she's going to have success at all, she's going to have to change the public's perception of her. and she'll have to show she's being fair to americans. >> the deplorables too? >> i don't know how she gets past these types of comments. she's running a quasi socialist campaign. and she dug in on death tax rates and tax rates and single payer health care system. >> watching every move she makes. >> but the point is if she's got a republican senate, she can't legislate anything unless she reaches an agreement akrss the aisle. and there are a lot of senator who is are constructive people on both sides of the aisle. you can't get much done in the house because it is stratified because it has been locked down by gerrymandering. if you reach an agreement with the senate and then take it to the house, then she tells her folks vote for this. and ryan says to his folks vote for this. they can work out on a majority. that's the way to move the country forward. >> you just talked about paul ryan. what happens to paul ryan? >> he's the speaker and he will be the speaker. i don't know, you know -- let's say for the sake of argument that donald trump doesn't win. where does donald trump go? does he take his playing pieces and go home or try to orchestrate an event where he becomes the voice of the party and drives paul ryan into the shadows? i doubt that myself. i suspect that -- >> why do you think this is over once the election happens? mean, do you think -- >> i don't think it's over. it's going to be a very hard to put our party back together. but the democratic party has an equal problem. they have jumped the rails on issue of market economy. for the first time we have a leading national party which has essentially said market economy doesn't work. and that's what's created prosperity in this economy. >> they don't admit it by the way. multiple people have been on saying can you disavow nationalism. and not one can say, oh, no socialism is bad. it wasn't that long ago that when the governor of alaska said president obama was a socialist and at least at the time the democrats were horrified she said that. now anymore it would be a positive. >> it's a disturbing fact because that is systemically a bigger problem for us as a nation than the fact the republicans have nominated a guy who's erratic. because he's just an individual. but when you fundamentally change the policy of our nation. our nation is built on optimism. and optimism springs from prosperity. and prosperity springs from people having the ability to grow and create and take risks and increase their quality of life. socialism is built on envy and negativism. this is a very serious issue for us as a country that we're moving -- that one of our parties is moving out of promoting -- >> if we could ask unconventionally, if donald trump wins could paul ryan remain speaker? >> absolutely. he's going to really need paul ryan. he's the most rational person in the party right now. he has good ideas. he knows how to reach across the aisle and get agreements. and so he knows how to work the congress. >> does he want to stay speaker if donald trump wins? >> i would presume he would. because speaker is the second most powerful position -- >> can i ask you a different question about the party? we talked about how the democrats have moved to the left. it's unclear to me which way you think the republicans moved and i know you're not a donald trump supporter. but i'm trying to understand of the policies that he has set out, which ones represent the party and which ones are his own? which is to say there are many policies that he's suggested which actually are a lot more left oddly enough than you might otherwise think. >> there's no question. we don't know where our party is right now on some of these issues like immigration, trade. but we do know -- >> but even some of the free market stuff -- >> it's more populous now. he's at 85% of republicans now. the ones you're talking about against that are -- some of the stuff that he's done has now become part of mainstream republican -- >> all of america is more populist on the -- we've allow. >> you saw peter thiel yesterday. he was almost an isolationist. >> i'm trying to understand where both of these parties are supposed to be. >> where they're supposed to be is hard to address. where they're going to go with depend on leadership. >> where they used to be resulted in the malaise that we're in right now in terms of, you know, wrong direction and income inequality and no one having a raise in 17 years. a it's caused people to leave their establishment positions behind. >> what's happened is that social media has taken over the role of the paerpt -- party. social media is dominated by people who are extremely angry. >> very true. >> so you don't have thoughtful, constructive discussion on social media. and yet that's the dominant political force today in our economy. >> no one wants twitter. we should have sent it over to satisfy the eu's tax demands from apple. it's the same market cap that they were asking for. so just send twitter right over there. right? >> one way to do trade. >> when was the last time you tweeted? you retweet all the time. do you? >> it comes and goes. some days i don't bother. it's a lot of work. >> i add another thing. that was the last thing i tweeted. coming up, the cnbc fed survey is out. steve leisman will join us with the details. up next, guacamole fans are in for a surprise. prices could triple over the next few months. details next. sixty to seventy million people are moving to cities every year. at pgim we help investors see the implications of long term megatrends like the prime time of urban expansion, pinpointing opportunities to capture alpha in real estate, infrastructure and markets. partner with pgim the global investment management businesses of prudential. welcome back to "squawk box." black berry beefing up its business with a deal. the company teaming up with ford to expand the use of its qnx connectivity software in cars that could lead to enhanced displays, intotainment. more bad news, andrew. >> i love avocados and i'm cheap so this is bad news. >> right. it's a double whammy. avocado lovers, prices are going up again. it's an avocado shortage. doubling and tripling prices from a year ago. labor strikes in mexico and the upcoming avocado off-season are causing the price hike. about 500 avocado workers blocked roads to stop shipments in response to the unstable price we're seeing. are you sure it's not a fruit? >> i think it's a fruit. >> tomato's a fruit so who knows. semantics. the high prices could linger until after demand at the super bowl for the guacamole. >> i went to chipotle this weekend. >> you dared. >> with the guac and it was great. they didn't upcharge. i thought they might. >> so i found out recently in productive talks, lemon keeps it from turning color. >> yes. >> and two, i'm pretty good at finding the right -- >> squeezing. >> you're good. >> out of a whole bunch of them. they're too hard, you wait. you're looking forward to guacamole and you can't do it. >> on fresh direct you get ready to eat avocado. >> but too hard is not as bad as when it's block. >> put it in the microwave. >> really? >> i don't know. >> don't say things unless it's right. >> cooking on "squawk." coming up when we return, media services are celebrating the joy of painting this weekend in honor of the late great bob ross. we'll show you how some streaming services are honoring his career. i used to love watching this guy on pbs. then obamacare premium increases. and fewer choices will make for another rocky start. we'll break down what the system will look like after the election if it even stays. "squawk box" returns in a moment. ♪ ♪ for decades, investors have used a 60/40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets can't. and even though they're called alternatives, they're actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. that's why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. translation? goodbye 60/40, hello 50/30/20. as long as you love me, it's alright... shape the best sleep of your life. sleep number beds with sleepiq technology adjust any way you want it. the bed that moves you. only at a sleep number store. welcome back to "squawk box" this morning. among the stories front and center at this hour, today marks the first day of trading for young china holdings as a separate holding. it will go under the ticker yumc. boj left policy unchanged at its latest meeting but did push back its targets. warning that price targets were weakening. and viacom has a new acting ceo. he replaces the interim ceo tom dooley. will eventually merch with cbs and les moonves will be in charge of the combined company. finally in honor of what would have been bob ross' 74th birthday, websites and streaming services are celebrating the joy of painting. the popular program that aired in the '80s and '90s on pbs. we all used to watch this, right? >> on pbs, yeah. >> as we were going past looking for something to watch. >> because it would start like that. then it would turn into something. it was always just sort of a fascinating lesson. >> his delivery was so pbs, wasn't it? >> loved it. >> there you are, joseph. >> and it was his -- what was the deal with his hair? he was not as popular when he didn't have that hair. that was part of the -- >> charm. >> right. >> i don't know. i love the guy. anyway, separately amazon's twitch is running a marathon playing every episode of every season from start to finish. the marathon started over the weekend and will go until sunday evening so you still have a lot of time to watch as many happy little trees are being painted as possible. remember he said that happy trees. the official bob ross is debuting daily. and netflix has a best of. so you can hear that soothing voice. i'm sorry mine is not as soothing. bob ross pased away in 1995 due to lymphoma but his legacy lives on. >> he hated his hair and it wasn't natural. i was looking to see. it was not a wig, but it was a perm. and that was the one thing he never -- he had to do it, but if you -- this is i'm reading -- >> had to do it? >> had to do it because it helped with the whole -- >> the ratings. >> but he never did like it. >> a way to stand out. >> what happened to perms? >> it's the opposite now. people get their hair straightened. >> it's the same chemicals be u you do the opposite. >> reverse osmosis. >> really? is yours? >> no. i only get the color. i don't get it straightened. >> never mind. >> you knew that was coming. >> i have a perm. >> pfizer out with third quarter results. earnings missed by a penny. revenue in line. but the guidance for the full year is below. that's due to a 4 cent hit against fourth quarter earnings as it discontinues of a lowering lipid drug. joining us on the phone, barbara ryan from barbara ryan advisers. how'd you come up with that name, barbara? >> it was a tough one. my real originality showing there. >> you didn't pay anyone. she has no ownership of pfizer or a consulting relationship. i also read -- did raising the amount of expenses also factor into lowering the guidance? >> yeah. so on the guidance side, they did raise both their forecasts for rnd and sgna for the year. so that was part of it. and they, you know, took down the high end of the range by 5 cents, 4 cents of that for the discontinuation of their pcsk-9 for high cholesterol. >> barbara, i earlier said that the market -- overall market s&p has been in the doldrums for three months. i tie it to the fed that they're going to do something in december. pfizer is a big yielder. it's the same three-month chart even worse with some of the drug stocks. it's been an ugly three months. 38 to 30. no one makes an investment to go from 39 or 38 to under $30 a share. what happened specifically to pfizer? just based on the yield? >> no. i think it's a couple things. the biotech sector has come under enormous amount of pressure. and just the whole health care sector as a whole has not done terribly well this year. >> is that hillarycare? what is that? >> performed very significantly. you know, some rotation, you know, some election concerns. they've become more pronounced more recently. we've had the lightning rod on pricing with mylan. you know, that's been broadly discussed. there was a strategic component to pfizer analysis. which is they were going to break into separate business units. they have made the decision during the second quarter to not do that. so i think that was certainly one driver of the stock. i think you could trade that position potentially to the core performance in the pharma sector. right? so a couple things. one is their established products business but that was all due to the acquisition of humera. they were down the sales analysis. if you take that and look at what happened to a group of stocks like mylan, like perigo, like valeant, that math does not appear that it would be very compelling for a breakout. so i think that's one of the bigger items. then on the innovative core, big winner with pablosicliv. just in september they got approval and will be launching there in combination with therapy. that drug was $550 million. came in slightly below what the street was forecasting. now they have discontinued their bcsk-9. >> all right, barbara. >> go ahead. sorry. >> that's okay. got to keep it somewhat short today. i don't know. it's not 39 to 30. you know, looks like it's bouncing bottom before if you draw a trend line. but we appreciate your time today, barbara. thanks. cnbc's latest fed survey is out with what to expect for the fed's meeting this week and also in december. steve leisman joins us with some o of the exclusive results. >> i'm going to be back at 8:30 at a place where the market participants disagree strongly. now let's focus on agreement. let's take a look at the outlook for federal reserve and this month. 1 hukz% of our 39 respondents. i think i've seen in the many years i've been doing this survey only one or two places of 100% agreement. no rate change at this two-day meeting. 69% said the fed is going to put in the statement something tomorrow that will signal a december hike like it did last november when it had had a december hike. and 86% say the fed will hike rates in december. that's maybe a little bit more than where the fed market probabilities are. but it's right around where it is. take a look now at the old timeline. you can see the next hike in the 2016, that's the same as the prior. there's the prior. that will go to the top here. and the balance sheet decline, that's been pushed ahead. by the way, a growing contingent now seeing no balance sheet decline ever. about a third. i think the fed never lets the balance sheet run off. then when it comes to the terminal rate, that's 2.44%. that will be hit in the first quarter of 2019. take a look -- is there anything else? okay. now, will the election impact the fed? 43% say there's no impact. 49% says there is an impact, but the only reason is because the fed doesn't want to influence the outcome either way. they don't see the fed trying to help one candidate or the other. and then quickly michelle, i just want to show you this is interesting here. the orange line is the fomc's forecast in september. and the blue line is our forecast. just so you know, over time the fed has come down continuously to this -- to the blue line. where the market is. those gaps are getting shorter. they're getting -- smaller. now just a 0.4 gap between the two. >> don't move. let's continue our discussion now with what to expect from the fed ahead of the two-day fomc meeting. joining us is greg ipp. jed greg is our guest host as well. let me pick up where steve left off. survey respondents, a huge number say no political impact on the fed except for they say they don't want to impact the election outcome. what about december though? any sense one candidate is elected versus another that that could impact the decision in december? >> i think a good analogy would be in june when they thought it would hurt the economic outlook, they sauz that as a good reason to keep their powder dry because they'd have more information about the outlook and the impact of that vote after the referendum. the same story. i mean, if you look at the way the stock market has behaved, a trump victory would lead to some uncertainty. that might change the outlook. better to have that information in hand and then make your decision. in that sense, yes. i do think knowing what the election result will be will help them. that said, i think the data is basically unfolding in a way they more or less anticipated very slow gradual return to slow employment. slow gradual return to 2% inflation. the nice thing about this, it keeps them on track for a slow rates. but there isn't going to be much debate about why they have to go this week versus instead of december. >> you agree with that, steve? especially when it comes to december. does a trump victory make a hike less likely and a hillary clinton make it more likely? >> i think it depends on whether or not some of the studies we've seen end up being true. when i reported that one study last friday, you aired -- expressed appropriate skepticism that there was stories about an apocalypse post-brexit. it may or may not happen but if there's a decent chance, maybe i want to see and have data in hand. there are stories out there of a 10% or 15% reaction to the trump victory. and then, you know, the market gets -- the fed gets to see if that's true. what i don't like is i don't like the fed being here in november with an election when it should have likely raised a quarter point a couple months ago. when you have guys like aaron rosengren. when the hawks are out there beating this drum. but when you have guys in the center who have said the fed should be higher and on this road back towards tightening, i don't like where it's at right now. it looks political. >> what's the view in washington? is the fed political or not? >> you know, the fed is under tremendous pressure. another one of these institutions which is being vilified by the political process in this populous movement. it's a big mistake of members of congress and want to get into auditing the open market committee. basically they want -- to have political people controlling money or supply. so the fed's under serious pressure to try to stay out of politics and look neutral. if they don't do that, then you're going get a very aggressive reaction from congress, i'm afraid. >> greg, you want to say something? >> i want to speak to something steve said. the hawks have a better case to move something sooner rather than later. but i think you've got to recognize the fact that the data has not moved in the hawks' direction the last few months. the unemployment rate is beginning to edge up. and it's been edging up for the best of all possible reasons. the number of people looking for work is going up. i think that sort of goes to the case of some of the dovish people have been making that there might be some reserve of unemployed people ready to come back and start looking for jobs which will sort of, like, prevent any outbreak of upward pressure on inflation rate. in that sense, i think data over the last 60 days have strengthened rather than weaken the doves' case. >> greg, i just want to disagree. you and i don't often disagree but to say it's edged up, it's been flittering around 4.95%. i don't think there's any way it's edging up for policy? >> fair enough. but it's not going down. >> fair enough. >> they have basically the normal unemployment rate of 4.8%. and they were quite prepared to let it go below that to run the high pressure economy. they don't even have to contemplate that scenario right now. it looks we're some time away from getting down 4.8%. i guess the broader point i'm trying to make is the hawks are left with trying to move now. i think the real issue for the hawks is the tail risk that the data starts to move in a very unexpected fashion. and leaves the fed dramatically behind the curve. >> so stay tuned, greg, for 8:30. i'm going to come back with a report that says that the market is seriously divided on this issue of whether or not low interest rates are good or bad for the economy. this is precisely what greg is talking about. >> thanks, greg. >> yeah. greg's going to call off everything he's doing for the rest of the day to watch you. >> as will you. >> i have to be here. obamacare premiums on the rise. what's the future hold for the health care system? we discuss that after the break. futures at this hour are up 26. there it is. welcome back to "squawk box." open enrollment for obamacare kicks off today. challenges are big as many large insurers have bailed out. one start-up, however, is getting into the game. bertha coombs joins us from denver with that story. >> reporter: hi, michelle. we are in colorado. they had their own exupheaval we're seeing nationally. here we've had both united health and humana pull out of the state exchange. anthem, the other large insurer here has scaled back dramatically. that leaves 90,000 people or nearly half of enrollees in this state shopping for new plans this year. they're going to find premiums average 20% higher. enter a brand new insurer. bright health launched with $80 million in venture funding this year. it was launched by a former united health executive. satd this is the perfect opportunity to start. >> we think it is a good time to be on the exchange. i think the first few years were difficult because of all the transition happening with the affordable care act. but we think the future is much brighter. and we're coming into the market with a different model. >> reporter: that model has them pairing with the state's largest health systems. that's going to be their sole provider. going to give them breadth across the state and help price lower. a lot of insurers -- like a lot of insurers this year, they're expecting they're going to lose money but returning insurers are bracing for that as well. >> they are just getting ready to sustain losses in 2017. then they hope there will be policy changes into 2018 that will modify the changes. >> reporter: bright says it's going to be a few years before they're profitable. they're hoping they can win 20,000 or 30,000 new enrollees this year. coming up on "squawk on the street" we'll look at what insurers and other people in the industry say needs to happen to make these exchanges more sustainable. back to you. >> thanks, bertha. let's bring in jonathan coombs. senior national correspondent with "the huffington post." he's also the author of the book "sick: the untold story of america's health care crisis" and former senator judd gregg is our guest host. i like this citizen cone. i like that. if i want to send you something on -- to your site it's citizen cone. that's clever. >> that's how you find me on twitter too. it's really easy to remember. >> okay great. when we talk to you about this, the main problem is there are way more sick people than expected and you can't make the balance sheet work. that's one of the problems. i understand what you're saying. in other words, more sick people signing up than we expected. but the number of sick people, there hasn't been an epidemic or something. those are the people that have gone into the program, right? >> right. when the affordable care act came online a couple years ago, insurers were trying to create a new product. when they sell to employers, they're used to charging everybody the same price. they give coverage to anybody who joins the company. in this market where people are buying on their own, this is a new experience where you have to provide coverage to everybody. everybody has to have a comprehensive set of benefits. they didn't know how to price these plans. they did not know who was going to show up. remember, you know, people aren't used to buying insurance. there's a penalty if you don't buy coverage, but it kicks in slowly so insurers had to guess. it's clear a lot of insurers guessed wrong. in certain parts of the country more than others they were not seeing the healthy people sign up in the numbers companies wanted. that's the game in insurance. you get enough healthy people paying ream yums to pay the bills for the sick people. >> yeah. they should have read the bill before they passed it too. so they don't know that -- i mean, there's a lot of -- judd gregg is here. the former senator from new hampshire. what did you say? you said they set it up so it would fail? >> i was involved. i was on the committee. in fact, i was the ranking member at the time. as you remember, this bill was brought to the senate on saturday and it was passed three days later on christmas eve and no amendments were allowed. kennedy was not active at the time because of his illness. it was intentionally designed in my opinion to fail. to push people into these exchanges which were not viable because the subsidy was so huge, it was never going to work. and people were -- there was going to be huge adverse selection we talked about. then as it started to fail, there'll be two choices. go back to the old system or move to a single payer system which is what you see hillary talk about now. really they're not that far from that. you let people go into medicare and you expand medicaid which is what they've done with obamacare, yao taken out everybody but working americans. >> you know, if i can say something. so i hear this theory a lot. let me make sure i get this conspiracy theory correct. >> it's not a conspiracy theory. you should have been there. >> no, no. democrats sat there, spent a year and a half taking all kinds of political damage to create this plan that they knew was going to fail, knew they were going to take punishment in 2010. they'd have trouble defending. >> they didn't think that at all. they thought it was going to be a winner. >> i agree. >> president obama told them that everybody hates it now but eventually people are going to love it. so i don't buy that at all. >> well, i was just answering senator gregg's theory there which is it was designed to fail. >> i think it was designed to fail. but it wasn't designed to fail in the way it's failed. they didn't -- what are you doing? getting your quarter back. fountains don't earn interest, david. you know i work at ally. i was being romantic. you know what i find romantic? a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. let's get out of that water. we're one week away from election day and new details are emerging about the fbi's investigation into hillary clinton's e-mails. the latest in the race for the white house straight ahead. the fed kicks off its two-day policy meeting today. is janet yellen teeing up a hike in december? we'll have the results from the cnbc fed survey. plus a key read on the state of small business employment. we'll tell you which issues matter most to entrepreneurs as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and michelle caruso-cabrera. our guest host this hour is robert saithian. if you have a slow company, don't think about showing up here. i don't even think midland or just, like, going -- >> oh, no. you got to move. >> what's the? 40 miles an hour in a 25 is fast, right? >> you don't want to break the -- you know, you don't want to break the -- but you can break the sound barrier if you want. >> and some are. but they're on the other coast. although there's some stuff happening here in the cool parts of new york, right? >> they have code here, don't they? >> silicon alley. >> do you feel you need to code just to know what they're talking about? >> you do have to -- >> do you know how to code? >> i'm not going to step in for zuck and be coding facebook. i have done some very small programming. not anything that i would want to be tested on. >> you call him zuck, are you that close? >> oh yeah. like this. >> we'll hear from him in a bit. slow companies need not apply. but first we're less than 90 minutes from the opening bell on wall street. up 20 this morning on the dow. hard to keep gains yesterday again. starts out okay and then it's like -- >> whimpers. >> and if you do look at the chart, it's like a flag. if you look at a three or four-month chart it looks like a flag which scares me. >> you're talking about a technical term. >> i don't even -- yeah. i don't know that much about it except just getting the fluctuations get narrower and narrower. it comes to a point. sometimes it goes up or down. >> breakout move in one direction. we just don't know -- it could be down. >> considering the fed has orchestrated a lot of the asset maybe appreciation. i don't know whether -- >> and there's 100% agreement -- >> that maybe they have. and we just heard ip talk about some of the economic metrics. seem to be petering out a little bit. i don't know. i don't know, andrew. worries me. >> you're not that worried. >> i'm not that worried usually. >> yum china has completed its spinoff from yum brands becoming the largest publicly registered restaurant chain in china. it will begin today under the ticker yumc. and a programming note. don't miss the ceos of yum brands and yum china today on "squawk on the street." two-day fed meeting getting underway today with the latest policy statement at 2:00 p.m. eastern time tomorrow. general consensus, the fed will not raise rates this time around but will do so in december. we'll hear more about what money managers are expecting from the cnbc fed survey in just a few minutes. and there are two reports on the economic agenda today. the october ism manufacturing index and the september construction spending are both due out at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. automakers also reporting throughout the morning. ford will be delayed. they're not going to report today due to a fire at its headquarters. we'll tell you about stocks to watch on the move this morning. pfizer out with quarterly results. drugs earnings missing by a penny. revenue was in line. the guidance for the full year fell below street estimates. this after a 4 cent hit against quarter earnings. also coach reporting lower than expected quarterly sales. the handbag maker's net sales rose slightly to $1.04 billion in sales. that missed estimates as the company limits its supply to department stores. and sony's fiscal second quarter profit fell more than 80% hurt by the strong yen and lagging smartphone sales. yesterday company cut its forecasts citing costs relating to the sale of its battery business. so tough going there. but it's actually sort of an interesting story if you just look at the stock over the past year. both hillary clinton and donald trump opposed the transpacific partnership trade agreement. that doesn't mean the deal is dead, however. there's still the lame duck session of congress when we could see some movement on one of president obama's signature issues. joining us now is the trade representative michael froman. good to have you here. >> great to be here. >> i'm reading you think this gets done during the lame duck. explain. >> absolutely. we've been up talking to members of congress and talking to the business community. we've got the widest, broadest support across the economy. the technology companies, manufacturers, service companies. virtually the entire agricultural sector in favor of this agreement. including sop nontraditional supporters. the textile industry for the first time in its history supporting a trade agreement. and all that is because this eliminates 18,000 taxes on our exports. we see a lot of support for this agreement. >> handicap it for us. 80% chance? 50% chance? >> i'm always reluctant to give numbers. it's really up to congressional leadership to decide, to bring it forward. if they bring it forward, i think we get the votes there. >> with trade so unpopular, i find it hard to believe that any current politician would want to use any political capital on this issue in both the left and the right are campaigning on being against trade. >> well, trade votes have always been hard. and certainly this has been a particularly challenging environment. but i think the key thing is that the rest of the world isn't just standing by. whether it's china negotiating its own trade agreements or the eu or canada or australia or others. they're going the move ahead and get access to these markets at our expense. and our market share is going to decline in these fast large markets. it's important we show leadership, that we're on the field, and we make sure we're getting access to these markets and defining the rules of the road in a way that reflects our interest and values. either we define the rules of the road or china is. >> the economic argument for trade is that the larger your potential customer base, the greater your scale can be. that leads to more specialization and in theory better sales. why hasn't that message worked or why has trade become so unpopular do you think? >> well, look. i think there's a lot of very legitimate concern out there in the american public about wages, about income inequality. we know as an economy we're producing more manufacturing product now than in our history. but we're doing so with fewer workers. that's largely because of automation. you can't vote on automation or globalization. but you can vote on trade agreements. they become the scapegoat, the vessel which people pour their economic insecurities. we need to separate that out and demonstrate that it's how you shape the economy. we have a level playing field. >> robert, as the editor of fast company, how do you think? >> i think it's hard any of this to get through right now. >> tpp? >> i think the mood is very difficult. i realize the goal and some of the interests. the bottom line is what's it going to do for jobs? that's what people are focused on. that's what i think the source of the concern of trade is. until that can be addressed in a clear way, i think it's really a difficult political quest. >> when it comes to the companies you write about, are they focused? >> if you're a fast-moving company, you want to have as much open runway as you can. so those businesses are more in favor of easier trade agreements. but i don't think that's necessarily going to translate to success of those programs given the political climate right now. >> mr. froman, i think you wanted to pipe in? >> all the independent analyses show they're going to create new jobs or move people towards export related jobs. various independent studies have shown 2/3 of the benefits of this go to workers. skilled and unskilled workers in the form of higher wages. if you're worried about employment, worried about wages, worried about the position of the united states in the region and showing leadership, there's strong reasons to support this agreement. i think just to go to robert's point, if you're a fast growing company, in the technology area or outside the technology area, increasingly you rely, for example, on the free flow of data across borders. having a free and flowing internet. it looks countries into those kinds of rules at a time when countries like china very much have a different set of rules. >> sir, thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> michael froman. coming up, fast company is hosting this week with a mix of speakers. including melinda gates and cher. cher. cher. >> wow. >> we're going to talk business and media with our guest in a minute. "squawk box" will be right back. still to come, a key read on job growth ahead of friday's big payrolls release. we're minutes away from breaking news on the state of small business. find out what entrepreneurs are watching ahead of the election and which issues matter most to business leaders. that's next. "squawk box" will be right back. as a supervisor at pg&e, it's my job to protect public safety, keeping the power lines clear, while also protecting the environment. the natural world is a beautiful thing, the work that we do helps us protect it. public education is definitely a big part of our job, to teach our customers about the best type of trees to plant around the power lines. we want to keep the power on for our customers. we want to keep our community safe. this is our community, this is where we live. we need to make sure that we have a beautiful place for our children to live. together, we're building a better california. welcome back to "squawk box." in corporate news, viacom has named robert bakish its new ceo. the news follows the news of tom dooley. the temporary title could be an indication of how quickly viacom is expected to merge with cbs. okay. new report shows that women executives left yahoo at an unexpectedly high rate in the company's efforts to sell itself this year. acquiring yahoo in july. part of the diversity report, the number of women in yahoo leadership roles slipped to 21% as of the end of june. down from 24% from the prior year. the total proportion of women at yahoo is steady at 31%. yahoo said most of the women left voluntarily after the plan to sell the core company was announced. meantime, let's get to our guest host. he's the editor and managing director of "fast company" magazine. they're also hosting their festival this week in new york. great to have you. >> thanks. thanks. >> dare i ask, who are you most excited to talk to this week? >> well, the thing is we're bringing together 5,000 attendees from 28 countries. so it's a large and diverse group of people coming together. to hear people from melinda gates to cher to the ceos of under armour, pepsico, chobani. you know, it's -- >> how much of the conversation do you think is going to be about business and how much dare i ask is going to be about politics? >> i'm sure politics will come up to some extent. but i think a lot of it will be about business. i think there is a sense that there is some stagnation that's going on in our government leadership right now. and that puts more pressure, more burden, and more opportunity on business leaders. >> do you think entrepreneurs that are involved in start-ups, fast companies, if you will, are as interested in policy and regulations and oftentimes what we talk about on this show as larger fortune 500. >> i think most entrepreneurs believe they can control their own destiny. and they are less obsessed with the details of those kinds of policies. obviously some of those policies -- the policies can make things easier or harder. but you're going against so many things when you're trying to start up and run a business that, you know, it's just one other thing. right? and they have to believe that they can overcome all these things. you know, one of the folks is going to come talk is kevin plank who started under armour. i don't think when he was selling t-shirts in his mom's basement and riding down to atlantic city to make enough money to cover his bills that he was thinking about what's the trade policy or what's tax policy. right? >> if you were to measure the economic environment today for start-ups -- if you were going to start a company today, good, bad, indifferent? where are you? >> i think it's always good and it's always bad. right? it's always hard is really what the issue is. it's finding the right opportunity for the right business. i think being an entrepreneur is much harder than a lot of people realize it is. but i also think it's tremendously rewarding. >> i also think of you as a brand guy. >> yes. >> you talk a lot -- >> a brand name. >> he's a brand name, but also there's a lot of articles about brands. people's personal brands, their corporate brands. you know where this is going. to the trump brand. i wanted to get your analysis of where it is both within the sense of the campaign but more importantly within the context of the empire that is -- >> you think about trump inc. as a business? >> trump inc. as a business proposition. >> i think trump inc. as a business proposition has a deeper hold on a narrowing group. right? i think that's where that brand is. you know, his daughter ivanka is trying to play off that same brand for herself. you know, it's a difficult place. it's a very strong brand. probably stronger than it's ever been. >> i see what you're saying among certain people. but then i look -- >> i think on trump tv he's going to have to the extent he does that, there will be -- there's a rabid audience for that. whether they're willing to pay amongst -- >> if there's an extension i'd -- if it was a brand extension, i would probably say it's been successful, not unsuccessful. i don't think the brand damage that he doesn't sell ties in macy's anymore doesn't come close -- >> it depends what he does with that brand. >> you've read these articles about organizations, groups that normally buy event time at mar-a-lago or other hotels. >>. >> who's going to stay at that hotel in d.c.? right? are you only going to stay there -- you know -- >> if he wins, every lobbyist in the world is going to stay there. >> that's right. and if he doesn't, does that mean that's going to languish or what happens to it? really some of that if he -- >> any publicity is good publicity. that's the old -- >> he may become the president of the united states. but even if he doesn't, he almost became president of the united states. bottom line. i think that's pretty good for the brand. >> again, it depends which side you sit on. some folks feel that's really powerful and that's a brand i want to associate myself with. and others will say that's a brand i don't want to associate myself with. a lot of the best brands are that way. you have your audience, right? >> i will just say that abc/"washington post" he was down. then we heard this morning up one. >> i'm just saying -- >> it's nate silver right now. it's 75%. people are 3-1 that he's not going to be in. and same with the chicago cubs. but either thing could happen. the cubs could win -- they only got to win two straight now. same odds. >> we will see. bob is here happily for the hour. coming up, did you hear? we're just one week away from election day. investigations into hillary clinton's e-mails are adding more uncertainty to the race. a check on the battle for the senate and the house straight ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. welcome back to "squawk box." let's show you what the futures are doing right now ahead of the open. beginning of the two-day fed meeting. right now they suggest a positive open. dow higher by 23 points. nasdaq by 9.5. show you how european trade is going so far this morning. mixed picture. pretty flat for much of the session. the ftse is now in positive territory. let's look at the price of oil. this is delivery of west texas intermedia intermediate. where it's been more than a week. brent is below $50 as well. the 10-year yield. look at that chart. tick tick tick tick higher. 1.854% this morning. almost regardless of what you think the fed is going to be. >> or irregardless. or disirregardless. >> i said regardless, right? that's the correct way, right? >> correct. but i have coined disirregardless to really drive people crazy. >> we're going to continue to drive people crazy. we're going to talk politics now. >> okay. >> it is just seven days until the election and john harwood joins us now with a look at the state of the race for the white house this morning. john? >> morning, andrew. like joe was saying just before the break, this race is getting a lot closer. the abc/"washington post" track has donald trump up by a point. the real clear politics average has clinton's advantage down under three points. it had been six. so let's take a look at the electoral map and see what the picture is. because remember, president obama won twice. last time he had 336 electoral votes. donald trump has to build on that. here's a look at the battleground states. you've got a western cluster, midwest, then some on the east coast in the south. now, donald trump has strong possibilities of flipping blue states in these particular four states. first of all, you've got ohio, florida, iowa, nevada. all of those are very close and all of those are plausible trump victories. however, even if he carries all four of those, he will need more to defeat hillary clinton. let's look at the next round of states where he has got to find something to pick off. you've got colorado is difficult. he's been trailing. you've got michigan which is a difficult state for him in wisconsin as well as. you've got pennsylvania. virginia, new hampshire. all of those are difficult states hillary clinton has had a lead. you've got one other group of states. two in particular. you've got north carolina and arizona. those are states that mitt romney carried in 2012, but that hillary clinton has a chance to take away. so if she takes away one or both of those states and she has a bigger lead in north carolina, then donald trump's hill gets steeper. now, one effect of the narrowing nationally may be to improve republican prospects of holding the senate. let's look at the battle grounds of the senate. you've got them all around the country. democrats have 46 seats. they need to gain at least four. five if hillary clinton does not win the presidency to take majority control. so let's first start out with the strongest democratic prospects. we've got illinois where mark kirk is in danger. and you've got wisconsin where ron johnson is also in danger. those are two likely pickups for democrats. that would only get them to 48. so let's look at the next tier of states where they've got possibilities. florida, marco rubio. missouri, roy blount. you've got in north carolina the difficult race facing richard burr. and indiana where evan has been favored. democrats have to got to break through a couple of places here. then you've got one more category which is nevada. harry reid's retiring. republicans have a good chance of picking up that seat. so just the reverse of the presidential race if they can take away nevada, then the democratic hill gets steeper. so the outcome on the senate is very much undecided at this point. and finally look at the house of representatives. this is where republicans have an advantage that will be extremely difficult for democrats to overcome. 188 seats now. they need a net gain of 30 to win control of the house. they're only about 30, 35 republican seats that are vulnerable. that means democrats would have to sweep those. and again, the stronger donald trump gets nationally, the more difficult it's going to be for democrats to run the table which they need to have. so the odds are there'll still be a republican majority. >> all right, john. thank you so much for that rundown. much appreciated. let's check out some of this morning's corporate earnings reports. earning 59 cents per share for its latest quarter. also a full year forecast with markets showing improvement after a challenging first half. that stock is higher in the premarket by more than 4.5%. mosaic came in 1 cent above estimates. revenue also up on phosphate sales and that stock is higher by 1.75%. molson coors came in below estimates. competition among beer brewers. that stock lower by a third of a percent in premarket. the results from cnbc's lawsu latest fed survey are out as the fed begins a two-day policy meeting. steve leisman joins us now. why it's not the all-america survey -- >> it's different people. all-america is all america. the first is like 40 guys and women from the street. >> but when you brand something, you should keep -- >> i know. the guy with the bald head does all america. people have room in their head for one idea. the reason we changed the name of the national poll to all-america was people could not seem to grasp the idea that cnbc was doing a national survey. people could come to me and say that's what the rich people think. no, it's not. >> why all-america instead of all-american? >> then you think there's linebacking. >> folks, this is what it's like to come up here and deliver information and get ferried down these cul-de-sacs every day. i asked this question for you and i'm getting no credit. this next question was done just for you. >> i'm getting nervous. >> what does the street the 40 people we talked to know about the interest rate and what you find a divided wall street. i think what's interesting about this, when you see this next chart here, 32% say it helps the economy. 32 -- we don't make these numbers up. say it hurts the economy. and 35% say little effect on the economy. the fed is divided as well. let me show you what the reasons are when they say that how it helps, how it hurts. here's a guy saying the people who say low rates are good for the economy. because it helps borrowers, oversavers. it props up assets and spurs capital spending. >> great. >> okay. >> propped up assets, that's great. >> okay. so -- >> what they shouldn't be. >> now if you look at the low rates, it misallocates capital, creates bubbles and creates a preference for riskier assets. pretty much the opposite of what is on the other side. notice i did not say exact opposite. >> can i come in one second. we have a piece of news that just crossed the tape that will move markets this morning. at least in your space. gannett just releasing a statement saying it has terminated officially discussions with the former tribune company. this had elevated the stock of tronc for some time now. not clear what's going to happen. some people have talked about tronc emerging with gannett -- >> why are you laughing? >> thank god that company's not just going away. >> no, no, no. >> did tronc fight godzilla? do you remember? >> we had michael farrow on the show. >> from tronc. >> we talked about the potential for a transaction. he didn't want to do one. >> it's an acronym for tribune something or other, right? >> yes. nonetheless, it's worth noting because a lot of people are talking about it today. >> thank god that's not going away. >> why is it not happening? >> gannett's struggled recently as i think so many headlines have shown. they've had a tougher time financing a transaction like this. it looked last week like the financing was getting pulled. that would make it harder for a deal to go forward. >> this isn't the regulatory that we talked about. >> no. this is a different situation. you're watching that stock. it looks like it's now up in the premarket. assuming that is still correct. but on the other end of it, i don't know if we could take a quick look at tronc. you're going to see a different story, i imagine, at this moment. it's saying it's unchanged. >> that chart is not quite right. >> i can't imagine that that's quite right. but we're going to see where all of this goes. of course we've had discussions on set about whether ultimately it's not -- maybe gannett doesn't buy tronc but they do a stock for stock deal in the future. wanted to bring you that news because it just crossed the tape. i apologize, steve. >> i'm told we have a wrap. never mind. just quickly here the last screen. on the issue of a high pressure economy, 40% say the fed ought to run one. 43% say no. >> letting inflation run hotter than pt kped. >> this is the debate. greg would have got this which is why i asked him to tune in. he had idea whether this there may be massive slack out there. it's a big question. and people's livelihoods are at stake in this debate. >> thanks, steve. >> oh, you can read all about it on cnbc.com. make sure you go. get us clicks there. >> the all america fed survey. i may have to change the name along with shaving my head. coming up, new numbers -- tronc -- new numbers on small business in the u.s. what entrepreneurs are watching ahead of the election. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley - we had to think a little more seriously about saving money for the future and for the kids and for their college funds. we thought, "well this airbnb is actually a great way to pay those extra bills." - every bit of extra money helps these days. we have a retirement fund of our own and i take a draw on it. i don't want to take too much either because i don't know what life is going to bring to me. i get to keep 97% of my rental price. the extra income i get from airbnb has been a huge help. - airbnb has helped me so much financially especially starting my own business. san francisco is such an expensive place to live. the way people work and travel is changing. the guests are now able to stay longer, stay five days, enjoy another day in san francisco and spend more money in the neighborhood. my guests are able to extend their stay and spend more money on activities and restaurants. - the extra income that i get from airbnb has been a huge impact in my life. welcome back to "squawk box." the news just out moments ago. we talked about it before the break. gannett terminating discussions to acquire tronc. of course tronc formerly the tribune company, the publisher did not say why it end bed those talks with the chicago tribune publisher. but there had been earlier reports that financing for a potential deal was in doubt. especially once they had raised that bid up to i think $18.75. take a look real quick what's going on here. gannett stock is rising rather big-time on this news. but if we could flip that board around and show -- >> we did while you were talking. >> tronc is down 30% on that move this morning. a lot of people in medialand going to be focused on that. we'll see whether -- i still by the way think there's a chance they ultimately merge not in a cash deal that's been discussed. >> $430 million company. >> are you trying? >> no. i'm just saying some people might be focused but i don't think -- it's not even a billion dollars. >> within a specific industry, there are people who will care. >> our industry. >> and there are people who subscribe to these publications. >> if it's not before a vowel. like panic. >> anything greek. >> consonant and "k" there. >> it's a fast company. it's a fast company. >> yeah. >> i think that tr o rks nc -- >> what's in a name? >> i don't know who would win. tronc has certain things. godzilla has a certain things. >> you're thinking of tron. >> there's a job at landor in case the tv thing doesn't work out. it's a brand naming company. new data breaking on small business in the u.s. ihs survey showing slight gains for october. joining us right now is paychex ceo marty musi. i was thinking to myself i talk to you a hundred times and then there it is. >> crazy teleprompter. >> all right. >> the teleprompter is not my friend. marty, help us with this in terms of what your survey ultimately showed. >> yeah. we've seen a bit of a decline since june of the moderation business hiring. i think if there's a lot of caution and conservatism out there with the election coming up. we still see the strong points are the southeast right now. even the east coast is up nicely from last year. but the southeast in construction in particular florida, georgia, those areas are seeing good job growth and construction there. construction across the country is down. but in the southeast it's up. so you've got the growth and kind of the two corners of the u.s. washington state and the southeast of the united states is where you're seeing the best small business job growth. >> what's going to texas real quick? >> yeah, texas has dropped off quite dramatically. it's down in the -- you know, down quite a bit. mostly because of houston. houston had great growth with energy changes. it's dropped dramatically and gone almost to the bottom of the list from up toward the top. dallas still kind of hanging in but houston has caused the state of texas to drop quite a bit from a job growth standpoint. >> the one and only marty mucci. thank you so much, marty. thank you for indulging me. coming up, today's top political stories including about jaim comey. that story next. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence. welcome back to "squawk box." a source telling cnbc that fbi director james comey was opposed to naming russia as meddling in the u.s. election. eamon javers joins us with that story. >> reporter: this is a story we talked about here on cnbc yesterday. the source telling me yesterday that fbi director comey was concerned about naming the russians as being involved in the hack. there was an inner agency developmental process in deciding whether or not to go public with that in the course of those deliberations the former fbi official tells me comey was concerned about naming the russians. he was concerned because it in part might interfere with the u.s. elections if the u.s. government went public with such a revelation. they ultimately did do that on october the 7th. the fbi was not part of that. ultimately it was the director of national intelligence and the department of homeland security that made that revelation public. the fbi not being involved in that. this official telling me that insiders were perplexed that comey would feel that way on the russian hacking story but feel different on the clinton e-mail situation. this official telling me that it's not clear that this is a partisan impulse on the part of comey but rather a personal impulse on comey. now he is deeply personally invested in the clinton e-mail story. nbc has don't be their own investigation on this and they are citing an official with detailed knowledge of the matter who also says that comey was concerned that that hacking information might interfew with the u.s. election. they have also spoken to a senior fbi official who tells nbc news something significantly different. that comey was opposed to releasing information about the russians but that he had investigative concerns about it. not concerns related to investigation in the election timing. so the former fbi official telling us comey made this decision differently earlier this fall than this week. that's caused a lot of internal combustion inside the building and inside the universe of people who do what james comey does for a living, guys. >> that's too easy. even in "the times" today it says -- if t"the times" could find something concrete, they would have gone with it. it's hard to draw a direct line between trump and the russians. if they could have -- >> reporter: we're not talking about trump and the russians. >> i know that. >> reporter: -- as involved in hacking against u.s. officials. >> but it could be investigative not worrying about the election in one case and not worrying about it in the other. could be he didn't think it was concrete enough. and the other thing is, you know, there are people that think he already inserted himself into the election in july. by not recommending a grand jury. >> reporter: right. >> a lot of people think that. so in his mind, this -- you know, doing it now is almost -- not a makeup but it's like i've already done it to the detriment of one side in july. now, you know, i'm coming back and just evening it -- in his mind maybe. >> reporter: i wouldn't tell you what's in his mind. i wouldn't presume to say that. but he's getting criticism from all sides now based on his pattern of decision making here and he's taking steps that are unusual for the fbi to take. the former fbi official telling me that in the normal course of business, the fbi simply wouldn't comment on this ongoing investigation but that official saying we're not in normal land anymore this week. it's unclear what's going to happen. >> "the washington post" says both sides he's taking it from. he took it from the republicans in july. i mean, at least the journal got it right this time. democrats are faulting on the latest thing. haven't heard too many republicans say he's got it wrong this time. even grassley said he's glad he did it. he just wishes he would have given more detail about what's in there. >> reporter: you mentioned "the washington post". they also posted a story this morning with their own source who is say the same thing our former fbi official said yesterday. so they're doing their own reporting on this and coming to a very similar conclusion here as well. >> it's just funny. you got to admit, eamon. couple weeks ago, democrats, comey, great american, great american. >> reporter: no, the politics of comey have slipped entirely. >> now he's like to republicans he's like, there's a man with integrity. and the other side thinks he's, you know, i don't know. >> they can't have it both ways. >> reporter: we're always astonished to find out there's politics in washington, right? >> thank you, eamon. it's drawing reaction from both sides of the aisle. richard payner is an ethics lawyer. ethics lawyer. under president george w. bush and currently a law professor at the university of minnesota. and you have a problem with director comey doing this. i don't know what -- what would a normal person have done right before the election if he does know that there's some pertinent information in the anthony weiner laptop? >> well, the fbi should be investigating the thing that it's charged with investigating. and the anthony weiner investigation is about investigating anthony weiner's sexting with minors. that has nothing to do with secretary clinton. if there's e-mails from secretary clinton going to that laptop, they're probably the exact same e-mails they've looked at. but they can look through those if they want to look through those. but they have no business writing letters over to members of congress about that. and with respect to the russians, we've known that the russians are spying on the u.s. they've been doing that since the cold war. and we know that this hacking i probably linked to the russians. and of course the fbi should be investigating that. they should be investigating the fact that it's very conveniently coordinated with a political campaign. but once again, public statements about this need not be made. the american people can make a decision in this election, just google the name of each candidate and russia and you'll find out whatever you need to know, including an article i just wrote in "politico" today about the ties between the trump campaign and russia. mr. trump and russia. we can figure it out. the american people can make decisions without hints from the fbi director. we can make decisions in this election. if you want to vote for someone whose idea of a hero is a former kgb agent, go ahead and do it. >> all right. >> but he should stay out of the election. >> okay. we got where you're coming from, richard, we understand. you know, you've got your own opinions about things. we don't need the gratuitous part. but let me ask you this. let's say that you, in coming across the weiner e-mails, let's say that someone found one of the bleach bit e-mails, found one of the 33,000 e-mails that were deleted after someone said don't delete any of these. and what if the reason it was deleted was so portentous, let's say someone saw that and said before this election i think this information needs to get out? >> that's not the role of the fbi. the role of the fbi, if they find something really serious, they can prepare to file criminal charges. if they found the candidate were coordinating with the kremlin to spy on american citizens, they can prepare an indictment and recommend that to the justice department. their role is not to be giving tips to members of congress who then leak to the public with respect to an election and to throw an election. we don't let the fbi choose our next president. we've got the information we need with respect to these candidates. >> the fbi can't choose to appoint a grand jury, the justice department would do that, right? >> that's what the justice department does. if we have candidates who are helping spy on american people, we can figure that out later. but we just cannot have a situation where the fbi is selectively leaking information to members of congress who puts stuff up on the internet. i don't want to see donald trump's fbi file posted on the internet. >> we've had attorney generals meeting on tarmacs with someone involved in a case, we've had an attorney general pleading the fifth. , made here, shipped from here, on this plane flown by this pilot, who owns stock in this company, that builds big things and provides benefits to this woman, with new cabinets. they all have insurance crafted personally for them. not just coverage, craftsmanship. not just insured. chubb insured. okay, so you launched your bank's app. now what? how will you keep up with the new demands of today's digital economy? the fact is: some believe they won't need a traditional bank down the road, so at cognizant, we're helping banking and financial services companies think digital, be untraditional, and reimagine what the bank of the future can be. our clients can now leverage customer intelligence to predict their financial needs and provide more contextualized products and services. we're creating new platforms across channels so customers can effortlessly invest, borrow, lend, transact-wherever-whenever they choose. and we're digitizing the way banks run, driving efficiencies and delivering new value for their customers in return. digital works for banking and financial services. lets talk about how digital works for your business. ♪ sharing a ten by ten room,ng threestruggling.nding, i rent this place and then i started home sharing. my roommates help out all the time. they are glad to meet the guests and that opportunity that airbnb has given me is such a priceless gift. i was able to take three months off to take car of my family during a family tragedy. the extra income that i get from airbnb has been a huge impact in my life. let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. what have you got coming up, jim? i'm sure it's a great show. >> we've got yum trying to figure out yum china. i remember people used to get married there and the chinese government cracked down, they had some scandals. but you know what, this is kind of separation strength to grow that we talk about. by the way, today is the first way of alcoa iconic, so we've got a lot of companies trying to figure out ways to make money for you. we've got pfizer not making money for you. we have amazon making money for you even if disappointing this week. it's all over the map. i know we talk a lot about what's going on with politics, but we are still in the midst of an earnings season that every day becomes less fathomable as companies just disappoint and excite at a level that i haven't seen in a long time. the disparity within the sectors is incredible. >> got it, totally agree. jim, great. we'll see you in just a few minutes. stay tuned for "squawk on the street." "squawk box" will be right back. for the holidays. before his mom earned 1% cash back everywhere, every time. [ dinosaur growls ] and his dad earned 2% back at grocery stores and wholesale clubs. yeah! even before they earned 3% back on gas. danny's parents used their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to give him the best day ever. that's the joy of rewarding connections. learn more at bankofamerica.com/getcashback. fast company is hosting its innovation festival this week. we want to thank our editor, editor of fast company, robert safian, for joining us for the hour. it's not mary. >> mary is my wife. you got my wife on the air. that's the best thing that can happen. >> this is cool. how old is fast company now? >> fast company is about 20 years old. >> wow, congratulations! >> 21 this year so we're legal. >> it's hard for a magazine to survive these days. >> it's always a triumph. the innovation festival is like a birthday party for us, a 21st birthday party. >> and the lineup that you have -- >> extraordinary. >> you've got to get on the map the first ten years and then are able to get people like this, so it's awesome. >> well, thank you. >> it will be a lot of fun. we need to get some other voices of optimism with all of the uncertainty of the election going on. >> thank you. appreciate. good luck with the festival. in the meantime join us tomorrow, "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good tuesday morning and welcome to "squawk on the street." first day of the new month. plenty of work with. a two-day fed meeting begins, the election is one week away, china pmi with an upside suri

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