Crude Oil Prices Last week was a big mover for oil prices up by over 3. 50 by the end of the week. Wti up another 1 . Youre getting close to 49. Right now its at 48. 74. Here are the stories we are watching today, its a busy week for economic data. Today we have september isf manufacturing, august Construction Spending, september auto sales. And tomorrow we get the Paychex Small Business index. On wednesday we get the adp employment report as we always do and the ism services index. On thursday we get jobless claims, weekly jobless claims. And on friday we close out the week with the september jobs report again. Not again for september jobs report, but another well, again if you talk about last years fast and furious. It went quickly once again. Here we are counting down to the its the ultimate release before the election. Before the election. So is german unity it has to be east and west junety. I was thinking about it last night. I meant to look it up, but my guess it has to be the coming down of the german of the wall between the east and the west. I was going i should have looked this up to be sure. But i was in bed. I was reading about the auto pages. About what . The nobel prize for medicine went to a june neapanese scient. The way cells die, the way you eat yourself and you get new cells. They break up sounds good. A lot of the work was done in the 70s, the 80s and the 90s but just now getting recognize. Germany is celebrating the reunity case of the east and the west. Tesla posting a 70 rise in quarterly people hear that and it drives them nuts. The best sales quarter ever for the electric car company. Tesla missed the delivery target the previous two quarters and the shares are rising nicely in premarket up 3 . And Fund Management firms Janus Capital and Henderson Global have agreed on an all share merger worth 6 billion, which i dont really believe. I was trying to its hard because it is an aussie firm, but i think janus, the market cap is like 2. 5 billion. So they are putting the market caps together between the two . I dont know. The Companies Say the combined firm will manage more than 320 billion in assets and apply for a primary listing in new york. Hinderson was also listed in london. Now to todays political news, the story dominating the headlines over the weekend, Donald Trumps taxes. The New York Times reporting that the candidates 1995 returns show that he could have avoided paying taxes for nearly two decades based on the law, the way things are set up and how he lost that money, how it would be played out. Former new york city mayor Rudy Giuliani defended trump yesterday on meet the press. This points out within of the reasons why releasing tax returns is so bad. The New York Times writes this long story and then somewhere around paragraph 18 they point out there was no wrongdoing. People have a hard time understanding how taxes work. If donald trump hadnt taken those losses, he could have been sued by his investors, he could have been sued by his business partners. Were going to have much more on this story in a few minutes unless you want to comment on it now, joe. Its the word journalists lead editorials on this. Its the word in every seasons legally, legally, legally. Lets go back to when ge got hammered for supposedly not paying taxes. Ge has certain finances during the financial crisis. Citigroup which didnt have to declare bankruptcy but was able to keep the tax loss carried forward. Who knows. And then the New York Times in 2014. Didnt pay any taxes because of losses. Two things i see in this are hypocrisy. Because trump has gone after people for not paying taxes before when hes talked on the campaign trail or when he tweeted back in 2012. About 50. 4 of americans not paying anything in taxes. Thats a shame, deplorable, that is somebody elses word, but its a disgrace when looking at the deficit here today. So the hypocrisy from that. Second, he says he knows the tax law better than anybody else, which is why hes the guy to fix it. But if you look at the Tax Foundation, its a conservative foundation and how they have scored it, the biggest percentage tax cuts go to the wealthiest people. So look, if he does this legally, so did the people not paying taxes, the working class of the poor who arent paying federal taxes on these things, too. If you dont like it, change the tax code. The question is, will he change the tax code or not . Its not a huge change based on how the Tax Foundation scored it. People go back i found a jpmorgan quote. And then what is his name, learner hand . The Supreme Court justice that said it is almost your duty as a citizen to minimize im not going to blame anybody for not paying taxes if theyre not supposed to. But hes said similar things about the thats not the point hes making. The point hes not making a point that they are somehow evading taxes. Hes making the point that its the 47 romney point, the 47 that are not only paying taxes, but benefits are accruing the question is will he change the rule. To say that you want youre not saying that youre youre not criticizing him for paying taxes, youre wishing that you could have an Economic System where everyone was earning have a productive job to be part of the system where you are paying. They are paying Social Security taxes probably. As are the people not paying federal taxes. Those are the people im talking about. Youre talking about the 50. 4 he quoted. Well talk more about this when we have time a little later. This is just what Rudy Giuliani was saying, he said real estate people pay anywhere from 5 to 35 depending on what interest and depreciation, mortgage, all that stuff. So you release your tax returns and have a 5 tax rate, youre going to have a story about it between now and the election. Rumors circulating about a possible settlement deal between the u. S. And Deutsche Bank. Julia is joining us from outside the headquarters there in frankfurt. Good morning. Reporter good morning. Youre right. Good morning, guys. Speculation here right about a possible settlement deal. But i think we can debunct the hope, the rumor we got on fridays session of the 5. 4 billion settlement. Under german law if that has been the case, deutsche would have had to confirm it. Of course, they havent. So talks continue. Deutsche bank execs are in washington this week for the imf meeting. So the talks there will be ongoing. But you guys were mentioning that its unity day here in germany. I can tell you, lets talk about some transatlantic disunity. All the talk in the press here is that this is the United States declaring economic war on germany. Where did this 14 billion settlement number come from . And if you look at some of the other settlements that have been made, look at Goldman Sachs and morgan stanley, the biggest between 3 and 5 billion. So you get a sense of why deutsche and investors here were pretty shocked and hoping for a smaller number. But its also the politics here. We know this is politically toxic for Angela Merkel. Get this from the deputy chancellor. He made comments this week saying, i dont know whether to laugh or be furious that a bank which turned speculation into a Business Model now declares itself the victim of speculators. Guys, the message there, Angela Merkel helped this bank at your peril. So now well look at whether investors, spectators, politicians here or anyone else, Deutsche Bank primarily needs clarity on the settlement. We wait for that. Guys . Thank you, julia. You are in frankfurt is that sign still there . I just saw that big ugly sign for the euro that is falling apart, literally and figuratively. Maybe that is why we dont take shot there is. Its a little too beat up. Its 5 8 of what it used to be. On the front of the wall street journal theres a settlement about the Deutsche Bank. Theres still a lot of haggling going on. On friday Deutsche Bank shares returned around on this report that the settlement was closer to 5 or 6 billion. Sounds like things are still in flux. It will take a while to work that out. Well talk to the former german minister of economics and Technology Later this hour. Yeah, hes coming pretty frequently. The former defense minister and oh, that guy. Good. And hes still in contact with all the leaders who were there. So well get good insight as to what he thinks or how he thinks this will play out. Hes nice. He is. The Fourth Quarter officially begins today. And if history is any guide, theres a very good chance we could finish out the year in the green. Since the 1950s the s p has never ended the year down after being positive for the first three quarters. And so far this year the index is up by 6 . As well as the s p. Joining us for more on this is Ian Shepherdson and steven reese and jpmorgan bank. Steven, lets start with you. An interesting statistic, we have been up for the first parts of the year, but theres another statistic that i saw, october, even though great the last 20 years, positive the last 20 years, in an Election Year, october tends to be pretty volatile and has been down. Yeah, i think we should be prepared for rangebound and volatile markets through the election. Shouldnt it be the opposite, rangebound and volatile . Rangebound is a nice word for volatility until we get final news on the election. But looking back over the years, Election Years are largely positive for u. S. Markets. So i agree that we probably end the year positive. In terms of the election or in terms of the what is it looking for . I think the market is looking for clarity on who it is going to be and what the policies are going to be. But more importantly the policy wants certainty of earnings. This is a terrible year for earnings. We havent seen any growth with the Third Quarter reports starting in a next couple of weeks. But reports into january, we are looking much better. They are looking for who its going to be clarity. And what their policies are going to be. You have clients on both sides of this. 6 to 7 Earnings Growth next year you are trying to figure out who it is going to be. One of the two. I think the market is priced in to status quo. The market likes certainty. I think that is probably what were going to see. Next year, 6 to 7 but he is not running. Policies similar to the last eight years, divided congress, not a lot of change. It would like that. I dont know if it would like that, but it is comfortable since we have seen that already. So not a lot of surprises. Surprises are bador markets generally. In terms of economic news, what potential surprises could we get or where do you see things working out . I see earnings are pretty concerning. I think the term is coming through. Q3 will hit the bottom and we will start to get better. I do think we are finally through the downdraft. Why . We have seen a huge hit here. Im pretty optimistic looking at the rate activity. So the capex is up and the price has done so. But if the count is back up and numbers are starting to churn, thats good for capex, but once we get to high prices, that is going to bring more floating under the market. Im not looking for oil to go back to 100 or 60. We still have an excess supply. Domestically, things look okay between now and the election, its not long. We havent gotten that much for big surprises to shock everybody between now and then. The surprises will probably come from overseas somewhere. Whether china slows down rapidly, whether europe takes a bigger hit, are you convinced that we can go it alone, at least for the next few months . Yeah. Its okay. You know, china seems to be Getting Better. Things have bottomed out there after a grinding slowdown. Things have turned up there. And that will pull up export activity from there. Europe is still a structural mess that we know about, but it does have a cycle and the up re speaking. Between now and november, big shocks from external forces. I dont know, they carry on with the economic scene and the background vote. I dont see any big changes between now and then, but the core story is getting a bit better. If ian is right, earnings will pick up in this quarter. Would you be telling people to buy on dips if well be rangebound and volatile . We continue to do that. How big of a dip do you need to say . 3 to 4 . We shouldnt be waiting for the 10 share square. Any sort of scare around the fed hike and volatility is better to be bought particularly in the sectors under valued. The health care, consumer technology, the big parts of the market still look attractive. It is the smaller bond proxies at risk here. Steven rees, good to see you. I just heard about this just go with it. Kim car dash ykardashian was ap held up by armed then in her hotel room. She was shaken up but not harmed. Shes in paris for fashion week. In new york her husband kanye west stopped the concert midsong when he got the news. Im sorry. I have a family emergency. I have to top the show. Kanye was performing at the meadows music and Arts Festival in queens. Supposedly, they got past the concierge at the hotel. He let them in. Then they handcuffed him continue know if nbc has confirmed this or this is from the newspaper report. And then five guys dressed as cops stole 8. 5 Million Pounds worth of jewelry, Something Like 11 million worth. Wow. And then she fled on a private jet shaken. But okay. Coming up by the Trump Campaign, responding to the new york types report that the candidate declared a 916 million loss in 1995. That could have allowed him to avoid paying federal incomes taxes up to 18 years. Details are straight ahead. Squawkers, look who is driving into the Halftime Report today . What are you doing . Joe takes over the Halftime Report and talks fast money with the fastest traders. For more on the Global Market selloff, whoa, look at that. Look at that. Grab a beverage and get ready to trade. Thats what i say. Kernan is coming today starting at noon only on cnbc. For decades, investors have used a 60 40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. Yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets cant. And even though theyre called alternatives, theyre actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. Thats why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. Translation . Goodbye 60 40, hello 50 30 20. Yoyeah, i do. E . You guys are working on some pretty big stuff over there, right . Like a new language for crazybig, worldchanging machines. Well, not me specifically. I work on the industrial side. So i build the worldchanging machines. I get it. You cant talk because its super highlevel. No, i actually do build the machines. Blink if what youre doing involves encrypted data transfer. Wait, what . Wowwww. Wow . What wow . There is no wow. An extremely dangerous hurricane threatening to pound parts of the caribbean. Hurricane matthew has already caused flooding in jamaica. Its a category 4 hurricane and on track to devastate parts of haiti. The winds kicked up in haiti yesterday and matthew could pass over or near haitis southwestern tip later today. Hurricane warnings are in place for jamaica, haiti and parts of cuba. Voters in colombia yesterday narrowly rejected a deal with farc rebels that aimed to end five decades of civil war. It was a shocking peace deal negotiated by the president juan manuel santos. Michelle cabrera interviewed president santos last week and every poll showed it was going to be twothirds of the people voting in favor of this deal. When asked what would happen if voters rejected the deal, he said it would be a return to war. Colombias civil war is considered to be the longest running in modern history. Its been going for 52 years. Also, british Prime Minister theresa may said she would formally begin the Brexit Process the end of march next year. May confirmed the deadline for triggering article 50 of the lisbon treaty that sets in place the twoyear process of withdrawal from the european union. That means the uk is out of the eu by april of 2019 at the latest. Some people, that was the way the stories came, people were its against the polls. Trumps campaign playing defense after a New York Times report said that trumps 916 million loss in 1995 could allow him to avoid years of federal incomes taxes. John harwood is joining us now with more. Good morning, john. Reporter good morning, joe. Donald trump has been pressured for months now to lease his tax returns. Hes not done so saying that hes under audit and son saying they are too complicated. Well, somebody mailed the New York Times three pages of a 1995 return that indicated donald trump, after the collapse of his effort in Atlantic City with casinos, had taken a loss in excess of 900 million, which the times then extrapolated and said if you take a loss of that magnitude, you can then claim it against income for three years before and 15 years after you claim that loss. Now, this is something that put the trump on defense and surrogates were out on talk shows yesterday saying, actually, what they showed was that trump had fought back from a severe setback to the present position of wealth he has and des