Acres and continues to rage. The cooler temperatures and light rain have officials feeling more optimistic they may get a handle on the devastation in the oil stands region. More than 80,000 people have been evacuated in Fort Mcmurray. Officials say theres no timeline to return residents to the city. Its a pretty horrible devastation thats taken place there. Homes have been lost. But again, people evacuated and are out of the way. Oil prices are reacting as the wildfire has knocked out a Million Barrels as a result of the fire. Bp and oil firms warn they cannot deliver on certain contracts. Wti is up over a dollar gaining 2. 25 . And more big news over the weekend. Saudi arabia replacing longtime oil minister ali alnaimi with Khalid Alfalih, chairman of aramco. They are planning a threeway listing in london, hong kong and new york. The company is valued at more than 2 trillion. John kilduff is here with us. We have gotten so used to this guy, i thought it was an aappointment for life. Right . Well, it was pretty close. He was 80. What happened . He was unceremoniously dumped. I think this is a consolidation of power by the saudi prince. Now a 30yearold is put in charge of the economy in the kingdom. What got him in a lesser light with this 30yearold, do you think . What did he miscalculate on . I thought the saudis did exactly what they wanted to do to try to put our lowcost producers or highcost producers compared to them out of business . Well, i think he ran afoul of them with the doha meeting, that was the final straw. Naimi wanted to strike the deal and give iran a pass now, let them come back up to the previous production levels. The home office would have none of it. And thats why the meeting fell apart at the last minute. If you recall, they went in, they thought there was going to be a deal and there wasnt because the saudis at the last minute wouldnt give iran the room to go back up to their presanctions. Didnt he walk in not knowing that . Was he operating it seemed like the rug got pulled out of him going to the meeting upon his arrival. Hes the old guard, joe. I think what we have been seeing more and more of out of saudi arabia, like in yemen and other parts of the region and more active fighting against iran and russia and syria, youre going to see a much more robust saudi arabia going forward. No question about it. Sort of the same way the israelis take care of business on their own. The saudis arent going to wait for us to carry the water any longer. Youre going to see more of the action, direct action on their part going forward. Its going to make a lot more volatility going forward. Theres going to be no change in their aggressive output policy for the moment. As a matter of fact, come summer here when the saudis directly burn crude oil to meet their electricity command for the airconditioning they need, they will ramp up production to a Million Barrels a day. Theyll hit 11 Million Barrels per day come summer here to upset the market again. Im going to miss this guy. This guy was always in vienna and the western journalists were chasing him. And he always had some sort of trite answers to a lot of things. And the last meeting he had, i call it the smirk in the market, when you would ask him about any kind of question or is there going to be freeze deal . He would give you a smirk, yeah, of course there is. What does this mean for the oil markets overall . Its up by 2. 25 today, more so because of the fire in alberta . We have lost a Million Barrels per day in production. Thats definitely supportive. Its a big loss. But the markets going to have its eye on the aggressive saudi policy to squeeze everybody out including the iranians and try to break the back, which they were succeeding in doing in terms of the Shell Production here for sure. But beyond that, you know, again, its going to be much more interventionist saudi arabia. Alnaimi let business get taken care of in a smooth sort of way. Let the u. S. Do most of the heavy lifting in the region. Sort of the policy that president obama has been arguing for that they need to do more of their own lifting in the region. I think that is going to come to pass here with this new guard in saudi arabia. So a new generation of millenials. Definitely. The crown prince is only 30 years old about. There, too. Very aggressive. Very, very aggressive. They dont know what theyre doing, do they . Experience and all that, is he on snapchat . They have a twitter feed you cant believe. When you put the star on there it pops up into your feed. The world is passing us by. The world is in trouble. If they are not going to cut back then, is your return to 30 a possibility . I mean, its been at 60 to 70 , do you think its going to be a test to where we were . I do. The market guys and economists, im not liking what i see in japan. I did not like the manufacturing data that came out last week. Youre talking from the demand side. Yeah, the chinese action overnight the last two days has been terrible. The market needs the demand center. We immediate the asian demand center to come back here for the prices to be sustained. With the saudis stepping up production here and the iranians as well, everybody thought the iranians wouldnt come back as fast as they have. I told you guys they would and they are upping production a Million Barrels per day since the sanction has been lift in a few short months and theres more of that to come. Theres a market share war that will play itself out. This is not forever. But its for now for sure. John kildu ff, thank you. No data today. Tomorrow look for wholesale trade. Then thursday weekly jobless claims and april import prices. On friday its the april retail sales, the Producer Price index and the may Consumer Sentiment. The face of earnings slows this week. The big highlights are disney tomorrow. As well as a host of retail names this week including macys, kohls and jcpenney. Well check on the markets this morning, the futures are indicated up a little bit. Pretty good day on friday but not a great week. Up 41 now on the day. Indicated up 6 on the s p 500. 16 on the nasdaq. The tenyear still not a lot happening there at 1. 78. The dollar was once again i think the yen was back to 1. 08 in euro below 1. 14. Now the latest concern in the wall street journal is the concern for the weak link in all the recent recoveries around the world, its now a weak dollar. Now we worry about the weak dollar. Youve got to be kidding. No, im not. Its right there on the front page. The dollar is too strong, oh, my gosh. The dollar is too weak. Investors are worried that a falling dollar could prove to be the weak link in the rally in stocks. Make up our mind. What do we want . We are never happy. Sounds like seinfeld. We are never happy. Weak, strong, we need a perfect dollar just like the perfect weather. 70, sunny. Just right. 73 and i think we are going to hit that today. Finally. Joining you to get you ready for the week, we have the chief u. S. Equity strategist and deutsche banks chief u. S. Economist and cnbc contributor. Guys, thank you for being here today. Thank you. Why dont we pick up where we just leftoff with john. Hes concerned about demand and what is happening right now, especially from asia. Joe, you have concerns yourself. Absolutely. Just look at the u. S. , we grew. 50 First Quarter. In nominal terms, we are under 3 nominal growth year on year. And its a pretty weak u. S. Backdrop let alone asia. In this kind of environment, i would think the demand for sensitive materials and a lot of cyclical factors is actually quite low. We are entering a very let stage in the business. So things are looking tired as far as im concerned. The jobs report was weaker than expected. If you look cumulatively, you are looking at pretty good numbers. The job growth is under 200,000. If you look at the tax results, they are soft. The numbers are weaker than they show. This explains why the consumer is so soft. We had 3 nominal retail growth sales since oil prices peaked. Thats a very weak number and it shows you the u. S. Consumer is not as strong as you might think. And that the economy should be doing better and is not and theres a fundamental problem there. Tobias, that is something the market has been gras upppling w all year. When you talk about the weak dollar, we were upset about the strong dollar and now are nervous about the weak dollar. We seem to kind of react every time theres a wiggle one way or the other. And all these numbers eventually get readjusted every two years. Then we look back and say, what were we worried about . So there is this tenuous stint amongst investors, not a love f of the market gyrates with this. Its not all that surprising. We track the Investor Sentiment very carefully. We were panicked before. We are deep in panic again suggesting a 97 probability of markets higher a year from now. Say that again, based on Consumer Sentiment there are nine factors in the model that we build to measure not how people feel as my wife will attest to, i dont care, but its more about how theyre positioned. And they are positioned tenuously. So over the course of the next year, 97 project of making money. Over the next year or two is a different story. When you think about where people are headed, earnings have not been that strong although we are at historically high levels in terms of profitable. But what joe said concerned me, the tax receipts are soft. Thats real numbers. Sure. A year ago when the numbers on labor were weaker, the taxes were stronger. So again, i wonder about all of this data because it gets readjusted. You make a very good point about adjustments when looking at tax receipts because they dont get revised. But what we also learned last summer is post youre not talking about decline. Growth less than 3. In other words, we have not had 3 gdp growth in over ten years. So youre right, the revisions are important. Sometimes we have the full picture of the outlook, but this is the economy that has to pay out of its own way, both in the gdp and gdp per capita basis. You can see the markets. For the market, i guess they are looking at this and not expecting any chance the fed is going to raise rates in february or in june, especially after the numbers we just got on friday. Our guys dont think they are going to raise. Is that a good thing or a bad thing . Great, were still going to be looking at east money or do we think this is bad news because things are worse than we thought . In my opinion i would rather see the people seeing jobs and feeling good about the future. Its not a bad thing to raise rates for good Economic Growth reasons. If we are really late in the cycle, theres inflation soaring and the fed trying to cut it off, then we worry about the markets. But you would still be telling people to put the money to work here because the odds are the market will go up. In the market on the s p, that was my target for june. I called my boss to say, can i take the next two months off . He actually didnt respond. But yearend, we hit 2050. We do see the up side. Its more moderate. In a low return environment, if you can make 7 on next years equities, thats not so bad. Gentlemen, thank you both for being here today. Thank you. Coming up, gop candidate donald trump signing off yesterday on meet the press. Ben white will join us next to talk about taxes, minimum wage and trumps relationship with House Speaker paul ryan. The first stock index was created over 100 years ago as a benchmark for average. Yet many people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. But investing isnt about achieving average. Its about achieving goals. And invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of highconviction investing. Translation . Its time to bench the benchmarks. Greeces parliament vowed to pass new austerity measures overhauling pensions and increasing taxes. Or even levying taxes might be an idea in greece. The vote came amid strikes and demonstrations on sunday. Some protesters through molotav cocktails. The eurozone finance ministers are meeting in brussels today to discuss greeces fiscal strategy. Old things are new, new things are old. Here we are back to austerity measures in greece again. And back in the u. S. Many residents in the midwest are cleaning up this morning after a severe storm and tornadoes ripped through a wide area over the weekend. This tornado was caught on camera in central high, oklahoma. An area hit with heavy rains and hail, golf ball sized hail. Move, guys. You lived there. No, move, guys. Youre right in the path of a tornado. Storm chasers are crazy. Captain American Civil War soared in the box office this week. The Disney Marvel movie grossed 181 million this weekend. In the action flick, captain america played by chris evans flashes with ironman for a superhero somehow down. Donald trump and paul run are set to meet on capitol hill later this week. The House Speaker says hes not ready to support mr. Trump. Responding to ryans comments on nbcs meet the press, here he was. I like paul ryan. I think hes a very good guy. He called me three weeks ago and was very supportive, it was amazing. So youre stunned. You feel blindsided by him . No, i would say stunned is a little bit its politics, im never stunned by anything that happens in politics. So im not yeah, i was blindsided because he spoke to me three weeks ago and it was a nice, encouraging call. Joining me, ben white, politico chief economic correspondent. Also a cnbc contributor. When are you here and when are you in d. C. Getting indoctrinated . Im all places all times. Im usually here but in d. C. For events. I like to get out of the beltway such as i can. Out of the beltway into manhattan. Such a real feel out here. I get out into the country to talk to people on the campaign trail. I do, actually, get outside the bubble. I dont know what happened with paul ryan, it could be that he just wants to talk about tone and other things. Is that what you expect on thursday to come out, do you think they come out i dont know they do. I dont know it will be that quick that ryan embraces trump as the nominee. One thing about that, after trump said he had this call with paul ryan where ryan was so supportive, ryan said that call never happened. But then Trumps Office came back to say the timing may have been off, but the call did happen. I dont know. But ryan is pushing back hard on the idea that he made it clear he was going to support trump. Anyway, for this meeting, its partly about tone and partly about how do you not alienate latinos . How do you not alienate africanamericans, women, all the constituencies is the down market worried about congress and the senate . They are worried about congress and the senate. Ryan is worried about his longterm viability as a candidate. If he endorses trump strongly, he goes on to lose badly, youre not convinced he will, but if he does thats not good for ryan longterm. Hes the nominee of the party. Paul ryan is hitting up the convention, this is the nominee, you know, you still hear its only 40 . Its only a plurality of republicans you cant discount how powerful he was in the primaries. Absolutely true. You cant discount its the perception of the party bosses, almost pharisees to take their ball and go home. Jeb bush signed that pledge and it just with the assumption it wouldnt be trump and it is trump. There was no footnote that said if it was trump this doesnt one more thing about the meeting with ryan, if i could, it will be about taxes and trade. Because trump he said on meet the press he might want to raise taxes on the wealthy. Thats what you people wanted. Thats what you people have wanted all along you say we cant do everybody said look, everybody says that its its not free trade. But fixing things will take spending cuts im not going to admit it. Finally the republican candidate says it and youre not happy you said it. Youre saying you, its not me. Traditionally republican candidates are im interesting to hear that we have Grover Norquist here. You saw the part about the business taxes where chuck todd, trump said, they might actually have to be higher. Trump said, higher . Im negotiating with the actual democrats. He could also be talking about overall broad anything the base of corporate taxes while lowering the rate. You can rid of a lot of these i take issue with that. Hes moving into the general election as well, which he should be happy about. I dont take a position. Im just saying what ryan wants to know is i dont either. Is he a republican or is he a democrat . Is he for lower taxes and free trade . He made the point that its not the party, its not the conservative party. There are shifts in both parties where things are more fluid than they have been. Traditionally ive been in the conservative party. Its also about principles. We saw where prince iples get y when you go against a president all about politics. When youre about principles, youre going into the fight with a knife, which the republicans have done. This guy is nothing with principles. Watch how he was reelected the first time, its all about politics. Suddenly we have bill crystal coming on, master of principles. Lets get mitt romney a run as a third party. Now that is brilliant. Thats a brilliant, brilliant move with 40 of the people already if you do that, youll be handing it to Hillary Clinton. I think what trump is talking be about makes common sense but i understand people who feel this is not a candidate who agrees with the things i agree with. So i cant support him. Did you read what bobby jindal said . Im going to ask cristol, go ahead and endorse hillary. Maybe it wont be so bad. Maybe he would rather adhere to your conservetive beliefs and not what trump has. What have they been able to do . What have they been able to balk . Ill explain it to you. What do you think caused the rise of trump . Because they promised to get rid of obamacare. They promised to stand up to obama on all these things. None of that happened. People are upset. Thats understandable. And that is why trump is so popular. Because the elite has failed. They have failed. Could you ever see on the other side a large part of the democratic, you know, not supporting the candidate . All of a sudden she took on principles of the other party no way. If she were not raising the minimum wage i dont know that the bernie supporters will all go along. You want to bet . Bernie last night if bernie was the nominee, do you think all the people would fall in line . How can trump remove paul ryan from the does he have the capabilit