Both down by 0. 75 . Chinas february exports dropped by more than 35 in u. S. Dollar terms. Imports there fell by nearly 14 . Of course, were watching Oil Prices Today too. Crude was up by 5. 5 yesterday. Its up 45 from februarys low. Right now its down by 1 , but wti still sitting above 37. 50. Scott . All right. Speaking of oil, the Goldman SachsCommodities Team out with a new report today. That title, the three rs. The goldman team suggests those factors have driven a prema chur surge in Commodity Prices that is not sustainable. The firm is maintaining its bearish view on gold. It keeps its nearterm copper price target of 4500. As for iron ore, goldman predicts a rally will likely prove temporary, so its maintaining its end of year target of 35. And on oil, goldmans nearterm view is for a trendless market with substantial volatility between 40 per barrel and 20 a barrel. That firm has a bullish end of year view on energy, saying oil will likely rebalance this year and create a deaf it market by year end, but goldman cautions a socalled green shoot of a deficit alone is not sustainable for a market. Were going to talk with commodities King Dennis Gartman at the top of next hour. I wonder what all that means in light of equity markets. Once again, fair is foul and foul is fair. Is oil going up good or bad for the stock market . Do we want commodities to bounce . Do we worry about inflation . Probably want some stability. But they said probably stale volatile. I think since friday, since that great job number we had, markets struggled to close higher on friday, but they did. Yesterday struggled to close higher. The nasdaq did. Im starting to feel like now that were its the first time weve had 100 likelihood. Oh, no, we could double Interest Rates at some point this year. We could go up another quarter point to half a percent. But these traders, theyre like, oh, no, the fed might act. The pausing cycle on the tightening phase that weve been in, this horrific tightening phase. But you have to put it in context with the ecb. Its relative to the rest of the world. Unfortunately, weve imported their lousy Economic System in europe, which is causing negative rates. They may never grow again. For a myriad of reasons. Suddenly now we cant because the dollar gets stronger. We cant do what we need to do. They didnt take our ideas of individual freedom and initiative and free markets and private sectors. Unfortunately, that didnt export as well. The other part of the market story to your point about the f. A. N. G. Stocks not doing anything, the reason they havent gone up is because money has been coming out like an atm going into other areas. The industrials and transports and all sorts of different commodity spaces. Thats one of the reasons, along with Short Covering, that its really, you know, ripped to the upside. Since january 20th, energy is up 17 . Im sure the f. A. N. G. Stocks are flat if not lower. Does the n stand for netflix . Because it should. Half of the loss in cable has gone to netflix. Yet, theres no barrier to entry for someone else to come and do what netflix does. Is it over . Not programming. Is that going to double again . Its not that expensive. The market cap is not that big right now. Its not like a disney or our comcast or something. Yet, people look at it as the biggest disruptor. Were going to have a guest coming up in about 30 minutes or so to talk about that very topic. Some of those guys think netflix is a second coming. I think one of the folks well have on the set will raise issues we talked about. No barrier to entry. 40 billion. It was going to take over the world. Really . What happens to the market if you cant get any traction in the f. A. N. G. Stocks and the whole commodity boom of the last few weeks or so was all Short Covering. Then that evaporates. No f. A. N. G. Youve got the commodity thing. People start selling and taking profits. If we actually are in a tightening cycle, the one area that would benefit from that is the financials. Weve been waiting and waiting for financials to actually tick up. If theyre counting on fuller house to double their market cap without the olsen twins twins. Stocks to watch today, Urban Outfitters is set to open at its highest level in nearly five months after the retailer posted better than expected samestore sales. The companys free people brand bolstered those results. Jm smucker announcing mark smucker has been named the firms new ceo. Probably not they probably didnt go outside to find him, i think. Not a lot of smuckers. Thats not a common name. Most people would change that. Anyway, starting may 1st, mark smucker is going to take over. Hes the ceos nephew. Interesting. Its a family company. I love smucker too. Did smucker buy a Peanut Butter company . What investment banker ca eer c with that . They presented that. Looked like a genius. Eureka. Shake shack posted its biggest intraday plunge in month. Results beat estimates, butt Company Offered a soft Sales Outlook for the year. I think they have their own smuckers Peanut Butter. They do . As long as they make it. Its like doritos and pepsi. Mayo and tuna fish. Yum. According to the huffington post, larry page and tim cook attended a secret meeting where the discussion was trying to prevent donald trump from getting the republican nomination. It was hosted on a private island off the coast of georgia where mitch mcconnell, karl rove, and House Speaker paul ryan also attended. Theyre not out whats that Richard Brant . Its a bridge that gets there. Its the greatest vacation spot in the world. Theyre on a secretive private island, no admittance to normal people. No, its sea island. A nice island to go to. Its not really private. Lots of people live there. Youre right. We should probably not call it private. I go there. Its not that exclusive. Voters in four states go to the polls today to pick their president ial candidates. John harwood joins us now with more. Reporter morning, becky. Today is michigan, mississippi, idaho, hawaii. Hawaii, of course, will come in way late. Were grinding our way toward the selection of these two nomine nominees. I want to step back for a minute, look at our nbc News Survey Monkey tracking polls nationally to get the state of the race. First on the democratic side, you can see Hillary Clinton has widened her lead over Bernie Sanders 5538. Indicates shes pulling away from him. This is influencing decisions like Mike Bloombergs announcement yesterday that hes not running. His path was only there if Bernie Sanders was the democratic nominee. He said he would only help donald trump or ted cruz, and he didnt want to do that. He criticized donald trump sharply. Now look at the republican race. This is why hes concerned about trump. Donald trump has got a significant lead, not as overwhe overwhelming. Hes not at a majority. That is reflected in the polls in michigan. When you have a National Race and then you go to a big diverse state, theyre going to look pretty similar. The 39 20 is similar to what we see in michigan. The antitrump forces are still hoping that they can deny him the majority of 1237 delegates he needs to get nominated on the first ballot. They havent given up yet. But thats going to depend on what happens next week in florida with marco rubio, assuming he stays in the race. There was a cnn report you saw yesterday that he was considering getting out. His aide strongly denied it. But hes behind donald trump in florida. And in ohio, john kasich is behind donald trump as well, although hes trying to use that last week to make up ground. If kasich and rubio can grab those delegates, its winner take all at that stage on march 15th. They might be able to deny him. If they cant, this thing will be over next week. Interesting piece in the journal. Journal has been playing the establishment, been wearing that hat for a whale with trump. I still like reading everything. It is realistic. They point out that 35 , 40 is not a majority. I understand that. That is true. But lets say you just saw that National Poll again. If you continue to win 39 every time theres a caucus or primary, if youre at 39, your delegates are going to add up to a majority, right . Some of them are winner take all. Youre going to get those. Youre going to get a higher percentage, even at 39, youre still going to get more delegates. If trump was to stay at 39, hed go above 12 whatever it is. 1237. I dont understand the path to blocking that. I dont know. Tons of people have done the math. The question is when you look at the delegates in the bank already for the nontrump people, can they bank enough Going Forward to have over 50 against him. If you had proportional selection and you won 39 all the way through, youre not going to have a majority by definition. Really . Yes. What about the winner take all states . You didnt let me finish. Thats what i was saying. When we flip over on march 15th to winner take all, then the equation suddenly changes. Thats why ohio and florida are so important. As we go forward, you know, some of these are winner take all entirely by state. Some of them are winner take all by congressional districts, so you have different formulas. If donald trump can keep winning states in that new phase, yes, hes not going to be able to be stopped. Real quickly, the idea of what happens to delegates that are pledged to a candidate that drops out, how does that add up . Are there any polls that suggest what would happen if rubio actually dropped out of florida . I think if rubio dropped out of florida that, would assure donald trump wins that state. Hes been leading substantially. Marco, the polling indicates, has been coming up, but i dont think theres anyone else who could win that state. In terms of what happens beyond the first ballot, you know, delegates become free agents, and at that point, if you have a sustained deadlock at the convention, then you have the ability of some of those establishment forces, party leaders, Business Leaders in the state to try to put pressure on. But i wouldnt bank i wouldnt bet a lot of money on the prospect for the nomination being snatched from donald trump at the convention. I just think that becomes very risky when you start offending the rank and file who have delivered primary victories to this candidate, and youre going to go to a convention. The ultimate sort of definition of the party machinations and youre going to take it away. I think Donald Trumps been warning about that. His allies have been warning about that. I think they would have a lot of ability to resist that. John, how bad do you think hillary hurt herself big picture with the comments about being against fracking . States like ohio and pennsylvania. Well, look, thats a significant industry. The thing she said, shes trying to thread the needle. She does this on everything. Bernie sanders said he was outright against fracking. She did not say she was outright against fracking. What she said was, well, i want this, this, and this condition met before fracking can take place. That would diminish some of the fracking. I think what would happen in a general election is she would start emphasizing how to make fracking safer. You know, you take the other side of the bet that the point. I think when you have states like ohio where an industry has contributed significantly to the economic well being, theres going to be a cost to your opposition. You get some support from environmentalists and sort of core democratic voters, but you alienate some other people. You know, you make your calculation and take your chances. Were really late again, john, but cramer picked North Carolina all the way. In the ncaa . If you had to pick one, just pick one right now that wins everything because its impossible. But who do you think . Im going with xavier. Are you kidding me . Do this with me. Do this. Can you see me . Do this. I love you. Im going thursday night. I love you for saying that. Wheres the game . Big east tournament at msg against either creighton or seton hall, both of which they have split this year. The truth is, joe, ive got no idea whos the best team in college basketball. I dont either. Kansas is good. I watched kansas play. Perry ellis. That guy. Fashion, game. Its weird his name is perry ellis. You know who else is good . Indiana. Anyway, thank you, john harwood. Well see you soon. Sorry, drew. Drews been sitting here. You were interested, right . You like politics. I like it all. March madness. Its fun. It is march too. Its march now. I forgot that. Is it 2016 . Fiveday winning streak for the dow and s p. It could be in jeopardy. I think its because, oh, my god, they might go up another quarter at some point before eternity. Futures points to a lower opening. Joining us now is rich steinberg, president and chief Investment Officer of steinberg global asset management, and drew mattis, deputy chief u. S. Economist at ubs. Drew, now were at 100 for a raise at some point, even though we thought it was going to be four. That sort of went off the table to maybe people thought zero. Now getting back to maybe another quarter point bit end of the year. Is that threatening . It shouldnt be threatening to anyone. They need to get it up. In our view, it has been and continues to be a couple rate hikes will help things. Certainly not going to hurt things. Truer words were never spoken. Maybe, just maybe, if rates were a little more normal, people would act more normal. Rich, we should not be basing the stock market on whether its a quarter point or half a point, should we . Maybe corporate profits go up some day. We got 4. 9 unemployment. Arent things good . Shouldnt this be enough to put some support on the market so we can get it up a little bit higher . I think as long as we understand the trajectory of that increase, i agree. The ten year is only at 1. 8. Even if we get back to 2. 25, 2, thats equal to the yield on the s p. I think it would give us a background to stop a lot of the crazy volatility thats occurring because traders in the short run have hijacked this market. Youre seeing moves in crude or in equity prices, other commodities that could be the move of a year happening in a day or two. So i think this cheat money, low Interest Rate environment is not healthy, and until we get a baton handoff from the shortterm volatility traders back to longterm investors, the fed has to start to move. But theyre going to do it very gingerly for sure because theyll use the data dependent excuse for the rest of the year. We only see one bump. One more. Drew, i cant remember your later you know, youre always fairly sure. Did you think it was a mistake to keep going up with rates or inflation is not at a point where we need to i mean, we might as well just stay on hold as long as inflation doesnt come back . Arent there signs inflation is not as quiet as we thought . Look, if you look at the narrative, get rid of the narrative everyone has out there about rates going up. Just look at what the fed should be looking at. The Unemployment Rate is at 4. 9. Inflation measures are at or above where the fed thought they would be at the end of this year. If they hold true to what their old forecasts were and say, hey, if we were going to hit these forecasts, we should have four rate hikes, then they should hike rates at the march meeting. Theyre not going to, but they should. And theyre not going to because of the dollar . Who know what is they think anymore. Ive given up trying to figure out why janet yellen does anything. But it seems pretty clear to me theyre afraid they would upset markets because no one is anticipating it. So if they should and they dont, arent there negative consequences . Or there are never any negative consequences. If i was a fed official and the Balance Sheet was at 4 trillion and the Unemployment Rate was below 5 and dropping and inflation was approaching where i thought it should be and rising, i would think i would raise rates at that point. But youre up able to. I dont get to make that call. All right. Rich, what about just Revenue Growth in this country. Negative Interest Rates in europe. How is just the backdrop of Business Activity . Car sales seem to be slowing. Were still in the best place around, right, in this country . Were the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry. As we look over the rest of the year, were going to go through fits and starts in the economy, and were going to go through fits and starts in the market. Earnings are coming down, and the only way were going to start to get Revenue Growth is if we get some solidify kags by consumers that things are going to be better down the road than they are now. Oil prices have come back up, but consumers werent spending that savings before. For a while, they were on restaurants, but the last data i saw from some surveys showed that Savings Rates were going back up. I think as we go into the election and the election circus that were watching, its hard for businesses to start to plan until we know who the final people are going into the november elections. I think were going to go through this trend of volatility, and you can use your cash to pickle your points on names that you like. All right. Whos going to win florida . What are your friends telling you . You got any republican friends . Yes, with my republican friends, including myself, everybody is so scared about trump, but they dont know what to do. Every day im getting a phone call from surveyists saying if you dont vote for trump, who are you going to vote for . The amount of fire power thats trying to get rubio higher doesnt seem like its holding traction here. You negotiation a lot of moderate republicans are really scared