>> speak for yourself on what the big one is that everyone will be watching. >> there's another big one? >> there's only one big one as far as i'm concerned. >> comcast. >> yeah. >> i think some other people are interested in apple but, you know, when you say the big one -- >> some people. >> they are both companies that have invested the market. apple up 9%, comcast up 7%. >> there you go. >> apple down in the last three months 5% though verses the market being off. >> a little bit of a rotation. >> comcast has done better. >> with comcast i like to see because we talk all the time. is it glacial or is it greatly exaggerated or is it happening quickly and i'm talking about your cord cutting and worries about old media. >> my view on comcast -- >> don't try to pretend like you have always liked it. you have thrown that in with the rest of the old media. >> i do not. because we have the nbc portion which is the content portion which i think long-term that is -- >> but the pipes are great too. >> it doesn't matter if you cut the cord because you still need internet when you cut the cord and comcast two quarters ago became an internet company. >> if you own the cables you're good to go. unless you believe in my other question which is 20 years from now whether you think wireless will be so fast that it actually could challenge cable but that's not -- >> we're running out of quizels. those are the things that flow through the air on bandwidth or stuff. do you understand that? how they open up more bandwidth. >> under the ocean it's at risk. russia dangerously close to those cables undersea. >> you didn't even get to read your first story but you're rolling. you're doing it. you're with us. you're fine. >> not my first rodeo. that's what you like to say. >> yeah. >> all right. >> the markets will also have some data to deal with this morning. september durable goods will be released at 8:30 a.m. that's eastern time. economists are expecting a decline of 1.2% and of course the countdown to the fed decision, the central bank kicking off it's two-day meeting today and the decision is expected at 2:00 p.m. eastern time tomorrow with no news conference and of course economists now are increasingly saying that it will not happen this month. it will not happen this year. maybe there's a chance that it's december but with no news conference can you really make a once in a decade decision and then not answer? >> no. but you could have an impromtu news conference. we had a guest on a couple of weeks agatha talked about this. >> there was a report too that the fed was meeting to discuss. >> a mechanism with which they could just do it. >> we'll see. expectations are low though and of course steve will bring us the results of the cnbc fed survey at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. we'll get a snapshot of exactly when economists are now expecting a rate hike. but elsewhere in washington -- >> hold on. >> not moving on yet -- >> not yet. but dupont. i want to mention it. it's just, you look at the absolute numbers and it's like -- anyway, managed to beat with 13 cents a share. but it was a 10 cent estimate but these numbers are well below like previous quarters and well below last year and sort of indicative of why there's been so much happening at dupont. even the revenue number was -- second quarter it was 7.1 billion. the first quarter, 7.8. all that was expected this quarter was 5.3. and they didn't even hit that. they are below 5 with the revenue number, at least the sales number, yeah, it is actually just a little bit -- sales was 4.87 and the revenue number 4.97 billion. >> some pretty strong language from the interim chairman and ceo. our priority is to aggressively manage what is within our control, of course costs, capital structure, the like. >> the cfo is also making comments, we're not pleased with our results for the quarter. for the year, the negative currency impact of 72 cents a share which is significant on the full year 277 is what you're going to be expected to earn so that's a large percentage. impacted by market weakness in agriculture and emerging markets and oil and gas and dupont i think unlike other chemicals they benefit from lower feed stock when the oil goes down. they're commodity based. it hurts when oil prices are lower. >> but we need to spell this out. if you're an investor you're playing the break up guy because ed breen that's what he does. he has a nice little scalple. >> when this happened recently wasn't that after lowering guidance again. >> yes. but the company saw the writing on the wall at least for this quarter. >> okay. >> so 275 is what the company now sees for the year and the street is already at 277. so it's already come down but that's versus, you know, 336 in the year ago period and probably much higher numbers. i don't have them here but in 2013, i'm sure it's down but you can see all of that movement right there has to do with, as you said -- >> that's ed breen. that's ed breen with a scalpel. >> that was the nelson peltz premium baked in. it wasn't even on the own narratives of what they were doing within their own strategy. >> he turned out to be right again. if you read the white paper and see what he said was going to happen and then what happened it's pretty remarkable. >> so the high 76. is that an all time high or? >> we have more earnings coming up this morning. congressional leaders reaching a budget deal with the white house just before midnight. the agreement which will cover fiscal '16 and '17 will be the last for president obama and outgoing house speaker john boehner. the deal will now need approval on the house floor. joe, swan song for boehner. is he doing a favor for paul ryan right before he comes into the speakership? >> would appear to. he can take some of the flak from the freedom caucus. he doesn't care now at this point, right? he can do what he wants and like a ceo. >> although some of the fine print says house republicans have not been presented with exactly how the spend increases will be offset by revenue. >> is it out of the way now? >> which part? >> can the fed stop saying we can't go up a quarter because we don't know if we're going to have a deal? is it done? are we okay? no government shutdown? is it okay? >> give them another day. >> really? something could happen? >> possible. sure. >> so anyway, is this true, walmart getting into the drone business. the retail giant applying to the faa for use of drones and walmart plans to use the drones for home deliveries, curb side pick up, checking inventories and data collection. the company will now be going head to head with rival amazon which also wants to use drones to fill online orders. i don't remember what the commercial was for but i saw one where the guy is waiting and the drone comes and is about 8 feet off the ground and drops his package and there's some china or something in it and you hear it shatter. the guy is having a bad day or something. it's not happening yet, is it? you can put an eye out with one of those things. are we doing this? we're not doing this are we? >> first you need approval. >> you need approval. >> i know but it's not imminent is it? >> not here. >> you cut your cord first or get your packages from drone delivery. >> you cut your cord. >> that's going to happen first. >> yes. >> really? >> so old media -- that will go away before -- >> one of the things they want to do is help deliver groceries from the door of the store to your car. can you imagine, a bag of produce hovering above your car. >> really with a drone -- >> toy helicopter basically. >> see, that's too much. i can see to your house but i can get it to my car in the little cart. >> are you sure? >> yeah. >> i won't use a cart because of the congestion. i use one of the things you'll carry. if i use two, i'll use -- >> do you? >> do i? press direct my friend. >> not pea pod or whatever it was? what was the other one? >> pea pod is the one out near you, right? >> i don't know. >> you don't know. >> yeah. press direct. seamle seamless. >> fresh direct. >> comes once a week? >> no, there's lots of fresh directs. there's lots of amazon prime. it's just -- a constant collection of boxes. >> the doorbell is ringing. >> it's just all arriving to you. >> you just sit and wait. it's amazing. >> for all your groceries, amazing. >> eggs. >> absolutely. >> eggs come to you. >> eggs come to me. >> when is the last time you or a misses was in a supermarket. >> this weekend. >> why? >> fairway. >> did you really? >> yeah. i don't know what we were get something we actually got soup. >> all right. >> there we go. stars. they're just like us. >> see people say you shouldn't just go off but you're going to have some nuggets of really good stuff and we got soup. what kind of soup? just a broth or a -- >> no, it was a bean soup. you really want to get into this. >> a recipe. no it was a long story but it was good actually. >> interesting. let's get a check on the markets this morning. >> there's nothing happening more interesting than this. >> we did see positive price action in asia but you can see how the futures in the u.s. are doing. s&p would open down by 4 points. dow by 20 points and the nasdaq down by 12 points. markets had a muted start to the week following four straight weeks of gains for the dow and the s&p 500. october still on track to be the best month for stocks in about four years and here's how europe is doing this morning. germany is close to the flat line. france is negative as is the ftse. italy managing to hold into positive territory. we're getting news this morning as well. greece is slightly negative as well. take a look at asia. i mentioned it a few moments ago. shanghai was negative for much of the session but toward the end of the session went positive. hong kong slightly positive. japan down by about 1%. but i think the big news, yet again is in the energy market. crude down by 1% today. natural gas fell by 9% yesterday. just a stunning move that took out a lot of gains across the energy complex. brent down just about .5% as well. ten year notes let's take a look at where our yields are right now. hovering just above 2% over the last year that yield is down about 10% and as for currencies, euros still hanging at about the 110 level. yen is about 120 against the dollar. gold finally take a quick check, 1165 for december 15. joe. >> thank you. we'll get to these. just so i understand this completely, do you order everything online? >> yeah. >> you use your computer to order it online. >> or your phone. >> mobile? >> yeah, you can say oh such and such. absolutely. i even use something called prime now. >> this really different than it was. >> occasionally you might go to a butcher though to get some meat. if you need something really quickly and you want to be able to look at it in advance. >> i think the fresh direct stuff for the most part is relatively good but if you really wanted to go fresh. >> i know you don't watch the walking dead but think about what would happen from you if there was a burst from the sun and this was shutdown for a month or so. >> i'd be a much happier person. >> you can't even -- you are ordering your -- you are so dependent on all this stuff, you couldn't even eat. >> it would slow everything down which i would like. >> i don't want to burst your bubble. but it's not just andrew doing this. >> but it's going to be chaos. >> it's some millennials too. >> there will be chaos. anyway. it's scares me. i don't think that -- maybe there aren't zombies but crowds rushing for water and food and it scares me a lot. >> the day the internet goes down and people can't get their e-mail for more than an hour it's bog to be a problem. >> we think we have it down pat, no, we don't. >> the countdown to the fed decision. you have like a bomb shelter already don't you? >> it's the fed's fault. >> anyway, the decision is underway. another one. i think they should do it every week. there should be a two day fomc meeting kicking off today as much as they're involved with our lives. joining us now for more on how markets are reacting and what we can expect to hear from the fed on wednesday, the deputy chief u.s. economist at ubs and peter, the chief market analyst at the lindsey group. peter is also a cnbc contributor. i want to start with you peter because in the journal today, there was another piece about how, you know, staying at zero causes companies to do things they wouldn't necessarily do and buy backs and doing those instead of doing what companies normally do is definitely held back economic activity. larry sommers was on last week or the week before. i said something about the slightest negative effects for staying at zero, he told me i was engaging in flatter economics and that the demand has been so weak around the world. that's why we needed the fed to stay where it is. nothing that the fed has done or that the government has done has caused this. it was just weak demand. >> right. >> is that true? >> no, it's the money -- >> everybody calls flat -- whenever you say anything they disagree with they call you a flat earther or denying now. >> their models are simplistic. low rates are good. high rates are nout. but that's not how it works. a bank wants to make 300 bases points. they pay deposit 1% and want to lend out a 4 or pay 3 and lend out at 6. it doesn't matter to them where rates are. it's the rate of return above that cost of money. so it's created excess supply in a variety of things. so we have excess capacity everywhere. we're seven years into recovery and utilization is still below 30 year average. >> you can sats demand. >> we create too much access supply. >> do you think that's true? >> yes. a lot of americans when they think about their retirement, they don't think to themselves i'm get a low rate of return. i think i'll invest in a country you never heard of to boost my return. most americans want a cd or guaranteed return. we have taken all of this risk during their career. they don't want to take risk. so that cost of a risk free retirement skyrocketed and everyone has to save more money. what do we have? a bunch of baby boomers where they're like i'm sort of money for retirement and now i'm really short because have to assume interest rates are going to be at zero for the next 20 years because the economy is so bad after adding so many millions of jobs. >> you could make the connection between -- you could do the math on what savers would have earned even if they were getting three or 4%. if you do that math and come up with that number, is it a trillion dollars? who got that? did companies get that? the buy backs? did banks get it? >> there's $10 trillion sitting in basically zero interest rate yieldings savings accounts. if it was getting 1% that's $100 billion into people's pockets in one year. >> where is it going? >> banks and low interest rates to companies. >> everyone is in a hoarding measure because you have this fear you'll never be able to retire. fear drives things. we're not in a greed environment. we're in a fear environment. >> it's a confidence issue and not a policy issue. >> yes because smart people in washington and most people in america despite our distaste of washington tend to think that people in washington are smart people. they know what they're doing and they're trying their best and you have this group of people, these really smart economists telling you that things are bad. >> i don't know. you think people believe that? they don't believe that about washington anymore. >> they think these people know something that we don't. people in the markets believe the fed knows something we don't. that's what you saw in september. >> i think people in the market should put aside that the fed knows something more than we do. they're looking at the same numbers we are and i think people that think oh the fed didn't raise rates because they see something that we don't know, i think they should -- >> at this point, now we got, you know, maybe we can put away worrying about the government shutting down at this point. >> we're facing another slow down whether it's big corporations or the overall economy. will they be able to raise this year now? >> if they didn't find reason to do it in september when they had this great opportunity to do so i don't see how they're going to rationalize doing it tomorrow or even in december because not much is going to change. they have their checklist of things that need to happen before they raise and those boxes in their eyes are not fully check sod i don't see how they rationalize it. >> we think that the boxes have all been checked and why they didn't go in september, who knows. you get to the top of the diving board and you look down and it seems like a big jump and you don't want to do it and someone teases you and you run off the end of the diving board. i think they will in december. >> in december. >> december. >> and the economy that we're in right now, should we be grumpy cat like the republicans? the president said they're grumpy cat. they don't know what to sell now. they're trying to reelect a democrat. they can't say things are bad right now. >> we saw a slow down in job creation. why did that happen? we started to run out of good people to hire. >> really? >> that's small conference of people that are out of work but we have a lot of people out of work for a long time that need some skill retraining. there needs to be effort on that front. >> it says 62%. that's demographics. unless you want your 80-year-old grandmother working. >> but some of the people employed are working 10 hours a week and would like to work 40 and they're not. >> the part time people that want full time work might be the result of policy. hour 29 to hour 30 for most people's paychecks. to get that extra hour of work costs a company a lot of money now so what won't companies do, give you the extra hour of work. there's been some good work done on that that suggests that we should suggest a permanantly higher level of part time employment. >> don't you wish there would come a time when all of these candidates would have to answer questions from business experts about the economy and hear what they're going to do. >> i thought you have a debate going now. >> we have a debate. but there's the perfect storm of now -- tonight you think -- >> tow see what he did there. >> i would like that. >> we can ask them when was the last time they went to the grocery store and what did they buy there? >> he didn't make fun of you for buying the premade food. >> you cooked some meals. >> but you didn't buy the can of soup, you bought the premade soup. >> i want janet yellen to go into a walmart and tell people online, higher inflation would be great for you. tell people living paycheck to paycheck. >> and seniors aren't experiencing any inflation. they're worried about low inflation. >> we have to go. >> tomorrow. 5:00. >> i don't accidentally schedule something at the same time. >> 5:00 east coast. >> i thought you meant the fed meeting. >> he's going to be watching this air. >> all three strands. >> apple isn't the only tech heavyweight we're tracking today. alibaba results due out around 6:45 a.m. and twitter after the bell. should investors expect the come backs to continue? stick around to find out and a multibillion dollars bet on macau's gaming industry we'll take you inside the grand opening next. but first this date in history. ♪ welcome back. you're looking at a live picture. the world series between the royals and the mets starts tonight. even if you're a yankees fan you're rooting for the mets tonight. dreamworks animation ceo recovering from a car accident and thanking elon musk for saving his life. recovering from surgery on his arm and wrist following an october 19th crash that involved his tesla model s. telling the hollywood reporter saying thank you elon musk you saved my life. musk responded by giving credit to the people of tesla. that's an amazing story, isn't it? >> it is. >> tesla owners love their tesla. even if you get in an accident you thank your tesla. >> not only is it a beautiful car but testament to how safe it is. >> are you a tesla fan in terms of safety purposes. >> they all want the same to me. i want some variety. >> in the look of the car. >> yeah. >> you can get the suv now. >> they're making strides. it's hard. to make a bunch of different models. obviously a lot more capacity and assembly lines. they'll get there i'm sure. so the safety, it's equipped with air bags like all cars now. >> the issue about -- my understanding of the tesla, it's safer because the base of the car, the batteries are all on the bottom. the weight of the car toward the bottom and people think it's structurally safer. people say that actually you could have a big suv go into a tesla and it's safer to be in the tesla. so i don't know. anyway -- >> you remember last week that the latest survey was that the reliability -- but the people that said that they had the low score for reliability still said they would buy another one, right? >> right. >> but they scored poorly on something. and these were owners. >> consumer reports came back with the new scores. >> what was the reliability based on? charge. >> i don't remember. >> was it safety? >> not safety, no but it was -- we'll check it out. if you get a lemon, you'll know what i mean. >> we have to go across the world. studio city mega gambling resort in macau is open for business. emily joins us with more on the star studded event. >> thanks a lot. we are of course now on the red carpet here at studio city. just one hour away from the grand opening. it is 6:30 p.m. local time and this is backed by melco crown. a $3.2 billion project and their third casino to open here in macau. 250 new gaming tables with a focus on the mass market and also their strategy is to go into entertainment so it's going to be featuring a batman ride as well as asia's highest ferris wheel and a warner brothers fun zone. now of course they're also opening in a weak market and i got a chance to speak with the co-chairman and ceo and he's not worried about it being a weak market. he said we're experts. we have done this before. the last time when they opened city of dreams in 2009 it was on the back of the global financial crisis. now the gross gaming revenues have been on the decline for 16 consecutive months and for the month of october it's expected to continue on that down trend but on that part melco crown is not concerned. they're seeing growth in the chinese middle class and expected it to be a growth driver for the sector. as far as competition we have wynn as well as las vegas sands opening up a couple of new projects next year as well and everybody will be able to benefit from that. here on the red carpet, 600 vips and celebrities will be coming through tonight. brat p brad pitt and leo decaprio just to name a few. >> thank you. a lot of big stars there. that's exciting. coming up, what to expect from twitter day and how today's results could impact the stock and as we head to break, here is a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. ♪ opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in. cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. why should over two hundred years of citi history matter to you? well, because it tells us something powerful about progress: that whether times are good or bad, people and their ideas will continue to move the world forward. as long as they have someone to believe in them. citi financed the transatlantic cable that connected continents. and the panama canal, that made our world a smaller place. we backed the marshall plan that helped europe regain its strength. and pioneered the atm, for cash, anytime. for over two centuries we've supported dreams like these, and the people and companies behind them. so why should that matter to you? because, today, we are still helping progress makers turn their ideas into reality. and the next great idea could be yours. today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to cloud platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. that's why over 90% of the top 25 global pharmaceutical companies are turning to cognizant. our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way clinical research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing patient engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. our population's growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients: to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. ♪ alibaba earnings hitting the tape moments ago. stock is up 5.5%. 57 cents per share is the bottom line number we're looking at. revenue coming in higher than expected and interestingly we're seeing mobile monetization go up sharply and gmv transacted on china retail marketplaces is $112 billion. that's an increase of 28% year over year. interestingly we have seen alibaba stock rise fairly sharply since the middle of august when it hit a low in september but the company had announced a $4 billion buy back and we're seeing in this release that about $2.7 billion of that was actually exercised in the quarter. so you can see that the company obviously felt it's stock was undervalued and did something about it. baba shares now currently up 6.5%. let's get thoughts from victor anthony. managing director of internet media equity research. it's great to have you this morning. >> thanks. >> i know we brought you out here right as the numbers were hitting but does this look like a good quarter to you? >> it does. but you have to recall that expectations have come down because the company was guided for weaker growth because for the china mack kro situation in september. >> the macro situation was expected to effect alibaba in two ways. one you have consumers maybe not buying as much jewelry, as many smartphones, fewer big ticket items which bring the per transaction level down and then the devaluations of the company which for a company reporting it's earnings in china in u.s. dollars that will adversely effect it too. >> correct. >> what are you expecting that to look like? >> i do think, i'm cautious. i do have a buy on the stock but i'm cautious about the chinese macro situation that i'm not sure whether or not it ultimately works and alibaba is a proxy for all of retail in china. because they dominate roughly 80% of the market share. almost all retail is moving in that direction of e-commerce. so whatever macro situation and however that market develops over the next several months or at least the next year will impact i think it. >> based on these earnings do you say to yourself that maybe china is oversold? >> yeah. i thought the stock was oversold to begin with. the company bought back stock which is positive. but i do think that there's a large bull case that could be made about alibaba because they do dominate e-commerce and retail is moving over to the internet at a rapid pace in china. >> do you think there's a proxy for alibaba in this market? obviously china is unique but some of the issues that they're facing in mobile mon at theization seem similar to what google went through, some of the issues in cloud seem similar to amazon using that as a lever to boilster not weak but weakening retail margins. >> precisely. we've seen that and that problem has been solved in the u.s. so we think ultimately it will be solved in china as well. >> can we get your take on twitter? alibaba is hitting the tape now but twitter will be on focus in addition to am after the bell. the company already gave the market higher guidance which it liked when it got it but how much of that has been priced into twitter shares. >> going forward, investment in twitter is an investment in the management team amid jack dorsey as well as adam bane. it's all about management execution so they preannounced the quarter. we'll look for user growth numbers. that will be weak because the company telegraphed that but more importantly it's the tone of the conference call. the stock was actually up after earnings but then the company gave a subdued assessment of the business going forward. i'm looking for more optimism this time on the conference call and that could help the stock. >> are you looking for tone or them to talk about new product development and changes in the product itself? they have come out with moments and all of these little things but none of them so far have moved the needle. >> well, you know, it's the beginning stages of it. it's tone and vision. you have a new management team in place. what sort of vision do they have. i think ultimately that could help the time spent on the platform. the bear case on the stock now. you the google relationship, the double click, attribution, get advertisers to spend more on the platform. we'll look for that. you have some pretty high profile backers who, you know, you bomber. you have the stock so i think that as you look for that vision t optimism coming out of the call tonight, i think that could help the stock appreciate more. >> we'll see. we appreciate you being here to walk through your numbers and give us a look ahead to twitter. thank you so much. >> thank you. >> when we come back, deal making this year has been in overdrive but will this trend continue into next year? we'll check out the pace of m&a up next. squawk box will be right back. ♪ ♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ [ birds squawking ] my mom makes airplane engines that can talk. [ birds squawking ] ♪ my mom makes hospitals you can hold in your hand. ♪ my mom can print amazing things right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] my mom makes trains that are friends with trees. [ train whistle blows ] ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ welcome back. time for the squawk planner. we're waiting on quarterly results from comcast, ford, merck, ups. all at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. and then the result from the latest cnbc fed survey and september durable goods report at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. big news also comes after the bell. that's when apple reports and will hold it's conference call. twitter reports as we just mentioned too. that's today's squawk planner. this just in, bill ackman will be discussing his investment in valiant pharmaceuticals on friday morning in a conference call. they're in the midst of addressing accusations involving it's relationship with specialty pharmacies. it's interesting to see a company on the defensive to the extent this company has been in recent weeks. >> in today's new york times it's suggesting like the research report and to see them get on a conference call, i don't know if it's with valeant or him on his own. that's unique. >> you know ackman's position going into the conference call. he believes it's a good bet. >> he's been close with pearson. they went after allergan together. they have done a lot of things together. let's talk m&a this morning. 45 deals valued at $10 billion or more have been announced. that's $1.15 trillion in deals in total. up almost 90% from last year. so far 2015 setting records from volume and activity in the m&a space so will this year's expected record breaking year set the pace for a stronger 2015. joining us is the vice president and he does pretty interesting stuff because you have a data base. you have a system that actually looks sort of the pipeline so you can sort of tell what's about to happen or not. >> yeah. so as a leader in technology, that helps facilitate due diligence for m&a deal wes get this early view, typically six months before the deal will be publicly announced or data will show up and we produce this report called the deal flow predpr predictor and on a global basis it will be up over 5% starting q-1. so a good strong start but the real question i think in everyone's mind, we're starting to see deceleration in that growth rate in m&a. >> people are entering into the system and doing due diligence online. >> they're doing the deals, yes. >> what is the percentage yield to an actual transaction taking place? meaning people who start the diligence but then it becomes a busted deal or it actually becomes a completed deal? >> it's 15 to 20% of deals that get to that key due diligence stage on our system that don't progress from there but we account for that. >> and if you looked over history and you look back to say, 2007, dare i say, could you see a shift meaning you could see the same amount of diligence but a number of more busted deal? >> it just prolongs that time period. when we say typically six months out we're able to predict those deals took a little longer. those deals that busted ended up getting done. >> can you give us indication in term of industry where you think the deals are going to take place. >> the sectors we're seeing streng right now, 16 announced deals will be consumer and retail. financials, health care, technology remains strong. >> you said every issue that exists. >> except for energy. >> exactly. >> everyone was expecting at the beginning of this year prolonged low oil prices, everybody is going to have to merge, why not? >> we have not seen that distressed activity. everyone thought a lot of the cheaper assets and struggling companies would be picked up by the bigger players. people haven't really called the bottom for the energy prices in that industry. materials is interesting on the flip side where we have actually seen that be very weak for the last four quarters and actually saw an increase in where i think people think those commodity price versus bottomed out. >> we have to leave the conversation there. thank you. great to see you this morning. >> coming up, about to auction up the most expensive single art collection ever sold. you got that down now. you ought to have it down. >> i'll practice during the week. >> locust valley lock jaw. do you know what i'm talking about? and the ceo of some of these stocks, brings us that next. squawk box returns in just a moment. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ when you're not confident your company's data is secure, the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. at at&t we monitor our network traffic so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. hi watson. annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. i'm turning seven. what did you ask for? a princess. and a pony. you like things that begin with p. i like pink frosting too. will you have a cake? yeah. i was too sick to have one last year. the data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. are you a doctor? no. i help doctors identify cancer treatments. i want to be a doctor someday. i can help with that too. watson, i like you. welcome back. this is a picture becky tweeted out last night inside the cnbc debate, and it's called the war room. that was realtime. i knew all those people. we don't see them much anymore, app drew, because they are back at headquarter, but there's matt there. carl quinn or carl quintanilla. >> you have better eyes than i do. >> i have a lot of things better than you do. i don't know about the followically challenged individual -- from nbc, a big shot. >> looks like doug stamper. clearly, i need my eyes checked. >> but that is the war room. it is exciting. you know, i asked becky, are you going to have specifically tough questions for certain individuals who i won't name. she said we'll have tough questions for each based on their own whatever would be -- i mean, it's going to be -- i think that's what people do, right? >> yeah, you craft for weeks and weeks, watching everything they say. >> but not just -- >> if you did it, you'd go off the cuff, right? >> i would. they are not got-ya questions, but they are questions about we need to know how to get back on the right track here, so that we're not 70% of the country thinks the economy's headed the wrong way. if you truly believe america's best days are ahead, we need to do some radical transformations to get back on track, and which guy or gal has the right -- >> thank you for adding that. >> you're very welcome. relax. anyway, our coverage starts tomorrow at 5:00 p.m. eastern time, but next hour, we get our first look inside the debate stage. we'll get the latest as we count down to this very significant and substantial and important and ginormous -- i won't say h-u-g-e, but i could, huge debate, coverage starts 5:00 p.m. eastern time. southerby's is about to auction off the single most expensive art collection ever sold, and we talked to the ceo exclusively. he is with us now. 500 million is a big collection, but i could, like, figure out it's three pieces. >> three pieces could make the swing. talk about huge. this is a massive bet that they are making. one of the biggest in history. next week, they start auctioning off the collection of the former chairman of southerbys, approving the sale for $ 500 million, they may that regardless of the sales result. in the first tv interview since becoming ceo, tad smith says the risk of guarantee is spread over 500 pieces over multiple sales. >> it belongs here, fantastic for us and for our clients and thrilled to have it. great for shareholders. >> smith said the global art market is not a bubble about to burst, but buyers are becoming more discerning. >> they are being more careful with how they spend and focusing on things they really want rather than the things that they might have wanted when they felt a bit more dpluflush. the closer you are to europe or north america, there's heavy upward pressure on sales, and in asia, there's more focused tails on buyers, but there are buyers still spending. >> i asked about the shagging share prices, and he said it's a very cyclical business, but that it's being reraided along with other luxury stocks, and that he's managing, of course, for the long term. this was interesting because, remember, he went to jail in 2001 for -- >> robert? >> alfred. >> you didn't want to address that, i'm confused -- >> i didn't see the element. >> you looked down. >> it's alfred. >> he's the guy who went to jail. >> correct. >> all right. >> it was a price fixing scandal, but they had to compete so much for this collection that they had to guarantee it for $500 million. a big question whether they get that next week. >> all right. okay. >> there you go. >> thanks. >> tad smith looking comfortable. i remember when he was there years and years ago. coming up, an earnings parade on deck. comcast, ford, ups, fooizer, merck and more hitting the street. the numbers breaking it down and brian roberts coming up. reports from ford, comcast, and pfizer and merck set to hit the tape. numbers and reactions on wall street. first cnbc interview with brian roberts on the company's quarter and future of media. >> negotiators strike a budget deal to avoid a government shutdown. opponents of the deal say it's already too late to stop it. details straight ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> you may. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm andrew with joe this morning and kayla as becky quick is on assignment already in boulder, colorado for the big debate tomorrow night. our parent company, comcast, out with quarterly numbers and earnings per share of 80 cents that matches estimates of revenue of 18.669 billion, above forecasts of just over 18 million dollars, and comcast chairman and ceo, brian roberts, will join us at 7:30 a.m. to go through all of this. ford earnings hit the tape. we'll get over to phil lebeau with the numbers right now. phil? >> ford in a penny shy of estimates earning 45 cents a share and expected 46 cents a share. we'll explain why it's largely due to the expectation of analysts when it comes to the tax rate. revenue, automotive revenue in better than expected at 35.8 billion. the automotive profit in north america, a record quarter for ford overall. 2.7 billion is what ford earned in the auto business in north america. overall, the auto profit was 2.2 billion. operating cash flow, 2.8 billion, and profit margins has been seen with the auto makers, 11.3% for the quarter for ford. asia in at 20 million, and more expected it closer to 177 million, and, finally, ford reconfirming its 8.5-9% profit margin for north america when they now say it'll be at the high end of that, and, again, guys, missing by a penny, and analysts who expected a tax rate of 32%, they had a tax rate of 33%. don't forget, bob shanks is come ing up, the ford ceo, first on cnbc, to discuss third quarter earnings at 11:00 eastern time. guys, back to you. >> phil, i thought gm was so much better than expectations wasn't it? >> gm was much better than expectations, far better. >> what happened here? >> so your question is why not blow away the street here? the argument is two-fold. >> do i have to go that slow with you, yes, that's the question, gm is better. this is blow expectations. work with me, phil, what happened? >> yes, it's called getting to the point. >> yes. >> the question becomes whether or not the analysts were expecting greater performance in north america. ford says we're just now at full production on f-series and getting to full production now, the profit, $2.7 billion, the best ever in north america versus expectations, i'll talk with analysts, but this is generally speaking, most had this pegged. you say, you should blow it away that gm blew it away. i'm not entirely sure of that. >> okay. all right. just, you know, figured that ford is actually, you know, in recent years, think about how well ford has done, going back to the financial crisis, good models, interesting to see gm out perform so much versus ford. all right, pfizer, quickly, and then merck as well, but pfizer is trading higher immediately with the numbers with adjusted net at 60 cents a share versus expectations of 52 cents. the company is also giving some new guidance for the year 2.16, and 209 is the old estimate. that's weird. that could be next year. i don't know whether 209 is the estimate or not. the revenue, 12.1 billion is above expectations as you can see there versus 11.557. i have not had a chance to look yet at merck. >> merck -- >> you got it? >> 96 versus 92 cents. stock is up changed right now, down 7% in the last three months, but they are actually raising their 2015 eps, that adjusted eps issue they now see for the fiscal year, 355 adjusted eps, 360. they see the fiscal year 164-174. certainly, changes to look for there. revenue number for merck, let's see -- >> 10.07 versus 10.80. >> basically flat. >> in line with expectations. returning to comcast quickly too. look at the stock of comcast this morning. i don't know if we have seen a trade yet. there it is. down 1.24. 80 cents was right in line with expectations and most of the metrics that people look at and there are many. there's free cash flow. there's consolidated cash flow, operating cash flow. there's theme parks. there's film. there's nbc, the network. there's all the cable properties. there's video. there's high speed internet customer ads, and all these comparisons, so it's a very complicated number, but the company is characterizing it as a good quarter, with growth of 11.2%. free cash flow growth of 6.8%. cable is usually the -- what shines and lion's share of the results. up 6.7%, led by high speed internet and business services and add ed 156,000 customer relationships, up 90% from the 82,000 added in last year's third quarter. >> still getting tail winds from minions. >> minions and jurassic world. >> theme parks? unbelievable. up 14.1%. >> and them i read -- >> the one business we were not to keep, if you remember. >> right. somehow, nbc has been leading -- >> somehow. don't -- >> no, no, five straight years? remember how hard it was to crack that -- >> yep. >> or to solve that code. because we were -- nbc was in third place for years, and it was -- people use to say if we could just reverse whatever it was, 600 -- >> interestingly -- >> if you reverse it, there's leverage, and now it's five straight years it's been up in the -- >> there appears to be cost cutting going on at nbc, the only unit where capx is actually down. so interesting to see there. revenue from filmed entertainment. you highlighted theme parks, but films, 64% of year over year operating cash flow up 150% year over year. seems to be the standout s segment. joe? >> nbc was the number one broadcast network for the fifth summer in a row, and that used to be a real problem, you know, when -- we were third or fourth. remember? >> yep. >> included fox, but who is our guy? he's doing well for himself. so we'll have brian roberts on to talk about this. you talk about cord cutting because that was better too. this was 48,000. >> half of what they lost on video a year ago. >> 48,000 customer videos lost versus 81,000 last year. with the high speed interpret increase 321,000, overall ads were positive. this is where, you know, your thesis about the end of old media is going to take longer -- >> it's going to take a long time. i'm not saying it's happening tomorrow. five to temperatun years. >> the disney selloff, the espn, whatever that was where we thought suddenly netflix would accrue all the market cap of the media companies, that was greatly dismissed. they are all the way back. comcast down to 54, 55, all the way back to -- it was above 62. these are things -- >> going to take awhile for change. >> when brian roberts is on, once you have that discussion with him about, you know, how ominous the future is. >> we can have an open and honest conversation, boss. come on. >> let's talk about other top stories in this hour. congressional leaders reached a t tentative budget deal. this avoids routine debt talks until after the next election. a vote on that deal could come as soon as tomorrow. earnings to tell you about, dow component dupont reported earnings up 13 cents a share, beating by 3 cents. revenue short of expectations. a familiar story, third quarter results were hurt by a strong dollar, and the chinese e-commerce company, ali baba doing better than expected, they purchased across more categories and revenue growth accelerated in the quarter. whether it's a proxy for the rest of china or just alibaba specific is the question. durable goods orders for september hit the tape at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. watching that, and case shiller home prices, at 9:00 a.m., and given all the things we talked about and what hit the tape, look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. we look to be in for a little bit of a rough morning. dow opening 32 points, nasdaq up 12, and s&p off 4.5. >> we need 100 to be rough. 32 is not rough. >> losing a little bit of steam. >> little bit of steam. >> fed kicks off a two-day policy meeting today. what impacts will earnings season and parade of numbers of have on team yellen's decision. here to break it down is jp morgan as pet management. great to see you. we woke up yesterday to the front page of the journal saying large cap corporations are going to see revenue and profits fall for the first time in in bull market. what do we take away from that? >> well, as investors, we look at that. went a sign that the economy's doing better, but we see increased leverage. it's not going to impact the fed's decision. it's based on data seen since september. the data has not delivered. >> but the way we think about the relation between earnings and the fixed income market or earnings and what the fed will do, we see companies pay very close attention to expenses, maximizing profit margins, laying people off or not hiring. why should we expect the economic data to be blow out? >> i don't think we expect it to be a blow out. it's slow. we saw slowing industrial production. we've seen payroll slow. wages are flat. look at those numbers, it does not tell you to expect blowout number, and, in fact, we're seeing there's a slow down coming around the world, slow down in the emerging markets, trickling through the strong dollar heard in the earnings there limited ability of some companies to grow. we do not expect blow out earnings. >> what language do we expect from the fed, figuring out, okay, china stabilized, emerging markets may believe stabilized. >> maybe. brazil is a question, obviously. >> it's muted. do you expect the fed to have stronger language or say we're still monitoring developments abroad. >> say the same thing last time. they are monitoring. they have to recognize data i mentioned is slowing. i think stabilization in china helped. the equity markets stabilized, but the data itself has not delivered. ironically, maybe by the time we're in december you'll see some of the volatility that has dampened because of what's beginning on in china. maybe that will give them ability to move forward, but it's not tomorrow. they're not going to go. >> where do you think the tenure is at the end of the year? people in your seat in january said 2%. >> 2.75, 3, moving, creeping down as the year goes forward. where we are today? a slight argument that if the fed moves in december because they think things have stabil e stabilized enough that you possibly get to 2 on the ten year, but it's a buy through 2.20. >> through 2.20? >> the rate of increase will be very, very slow. the data dependency, the strong dollar's a break on the ability of the fed it raise rates at a high pace, and maybe it's closer to 1-1.5. seems like a buy. >> paying attention to the fed meeting, but highlight the boj, bank of japan, could throw a curve ball this week. what do you expect? >> more quantitative easing, seeing it out of europe as well, and both of those things are supportive of rifb sk assets. it stabilizes markets, and could, in fact, provide enough stabilization and sort of damp p volatility to go in september, but that means people who are taking risk in the assets, this is a good place because the rest of the world is supporting that risk. >> could dampen volatility but increase this stark contrast between what the rest of the world is doing and what the fed wants to do. >> absolutely. we saw the developed markets have real policy rates, but diverse jengs between developed markets is narrow and strong dollar we get if we raise puts a break on the ability for us to get too far away from the rest of the world. >> thanks. >> thank you. >> thank you. coming up, a flood of earnings just hitting the wires. we'll keep you up to speed on all of what's going on this morning, the biggest movers, and the comcast chairman, joining us first, breaking down the company's latest quarter, and up next exthe first look at the debate stage for tomorrow's faceoff between gop candidates on cnbc, and we get the tour when we come back. preparations underway in boulder. coverage of tomorrow night's gop debate on cnbc kicks off at 5:00 p.m. europe, and we are there, joining us now, you're in the coors thing? near the umc? the memorial center? up there near college avenue, or where is that? >> reporter: yeah. this is we're right on campus here. this is the facility here at colorado university. we are in the spin room here. this is the george bodeker, jr. court, a basketball practice area where we are now, the spin room after the debate, all the campaign staff will be here, telling reporters gathering h ie their candidates did the best. we have tv positions for the reporters here as well. we've also got the world's first look now at the debate's stage tomorrow night. look at this video that we shot yesterday, and you get a sense of just how the candidates will be arranged on stage at ten p d podiums. one of the things i noticed this morning when i walked down there and actually walked that stage is just the enormous physical distance between the people on the wings of that stage. the end podiums, casic on one end, rand paul on the other. they are physically far apart, leaning in, get their voices heard and make the case they ought to stay in the race for the presidency of the united states and for the republican nomination. exciting here. this is the spin room, want debate stage tomorrow night with a lot to do between now and then. >> amazing. when did you get there? >> reporter: 6:00 last night. a couple hours of sleep, up here 3:00 a.m. local time, up and headed out to the site here this morning. >> you didn't walk up into the flat irons, did you go to see mindy's house? >> no touristing at all. it's been dark the entire time. dark when we arrived, dark when we woke up, might be light now. i have not checked. >> maybe you'll get time. up on the hill, find a stable where steven stills carved his name in a table there at the -- >> the place i want to go, i understand that cnbc's carl quintanilla attended this fine university. i want to find that dorm room. >> political science. >> there's another guy that went there. >> no flies on you, but that's what i'm talking about. i went there too for tour year, that's why i know this. >> oh, okay. >> i don't want to see you at the bus stop, though, so stay away from there. >> reporter: right, right. off air, e-mail me a couple good bars. >> okay, i'll do that. dark horse maybe. >> thanks, all right. whatever you suggest. >> don't touch the edibles in the green room. >> thank you. >> yep. >> thank you. coming up -- >> he already touched them. >> comcast ceo talking the third quarter results, but first, walmart wants to put drones to work. it's trying to get there. it applied to the fa organization. that story for you up next. welcome back. walmart now trying to get in the drone business. the retail giant applying to the faa for use of drones. walmart plans, if you can believe this, to use the drones for home deliveries, and it's more interesting. curb side pickups and checking inventories and data collection. they actually want to be able to bring the stuff from the store to your car in the parking lot. the company will now be going head to head with rival, amazon, which, of course, also wants to use drones to fill online orders. then we got other news in the tesla world. dreamworks animation ceo, jeffrey katzebberg recovers from a car accident on october 19th, involving his tesla model s. in the first public appearance following the accident, he said, quote, thank you, musk, you saved my life. the dreamworks ceo says he shattered his arm and wrist and destroyed the car. musk responded by giving credit to the people of tesla. >> all right. coming up, comcast out with quarterly results. the stock is on a role after that pullback that you can see during the -- oh, selloff of the overall market in august and that espn disney situation, but today, down so far 1.25. the comcast chairman and ceo, brian roberts, is next on a first on cnbc interview. heading to break, look at u.s. equity futures, now down 23 points or so. the s&p down 3. the internet of . what we're recommending as your consultants... the new consultants are here. it's not just big data, its bigger data. we're beta testing the new wearable interface... ♪ xerox believes finding the right solution shouldn't be so much work. by engineering a better way for people, process and technology to work together. work can work better. with xerox. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. stories front and center, jp morgan chase planning to launch a mobile payment platform to compete with apple pay, and jp morgan executive tells reuters the bank has major retailers on board like walmart and best buy. the launch is expected sometime in mid 20 16. reports of the xm bank's demise may be exaggerated. supporters of the bank employed a rarely used procedure move to bypass the chairman who blocked legislation. the house votes on a bill to renew the bank's charter. but if it passes, the bill faces procedural hurdles in the senate. crude oil prices falling throughout the course of the week so far. traders citing worry about a supply glut. of course, we saw supply in a six month high last week. wti crude down 1.5%. and brent shy of 1%, and nag gas is now below 2 bucks, we have u.s. inventory, and we have earnings this morning, early in the morning, and profit fell, but the company is forecasting 60 bucks a barrel roughly for 2017 or through 2017. >> all right. let's look at the other big stories moving markets this morning. merck beat by 5 citizen and increased full year forecast. similar story from fellow drug maker, pfizer, beating street forecasts by 9 cents with profit of 60 cents a share and raised outlooks on strong result, and in vaccines an other areas. dupont short of estimates, beating the bottom line, saying they are not pleased, though, with the quarter or results. ford earned 45 cents a share for the quarter, beati ining foreca and there was a record performance in the quarter. joe? >> andrew, cnbc's parent company, as you know, comcast, out with earnings this morning. reporting 80 cents a share matching estimates and revenue beat expectations. joining us is the comcast chairman and ceo, brian roberts, and i hesitate to call you brian. i don't want to get that familiar, sir, and mr. roberts sounds like an old john ford movie. do i go with brian? is that all right? >> yes, i think so. we won't tell anybody. >> okay. so, brian, you know, we had a lot of companies come on here, multignar multinationals, it is about negative rev lieu growth, 11.2%, i think, illustrates being, you know, somewhat domestic in terms of comcast. 11.2% is the envy of multinationals at this point. how did you manage to put up that number? >> well, it was a great quarter. i almost every part of the company i think you could make that statement for, and in particular, nbc universal off to the incredible start, third quarter had two great movies, theme park, international, and all parts of the company including cable business led the way, and we -- in cable, the best third quarter in video in nine years. that's pretty amazing, and we had a really narrowed losses down to 48,000, but our x 1 platform and customer experience drives that. at the same time, broadband, which we talk so much about, 320,000 net ads in the quarter. best third quarter in six years, so really pleased with the quarter across the board. working well together, both sides of the company working as an integrated company, and you just hope for things to be this strong across the board. >> the breath of different operations to oversee 1, as you were just talking about, is staggering, obviously, and there's, you know, free cash flow numbers, consolidated, and a lot of customers, narrowing from last year, and something paid attention to begin the worries about old media versus new media, but you pointed out, if you just look at customer ads, you can't use video. you look at high speed internet now, up by 320,000. that makes me think that people that are constantly looking at video losses are -- might be missing the big picture on how the business grows. >> well, clearly, there's a different mar gyp. we have a higher margin on broad band. we look at another metric, customer relationships. >> yeah. >> you know, there's a whole lot of different ways to analyze a company, but 40% improvement. i like the trajectory offed v v and we had the best broadband quarter in many years. why is that? well, in video, we focus on the x1 platform, something unique to comcast, developed by our innovation and engineering team doing an incredible job. we -- this quarter we put out 40,000 boxes a day, and now 25% of the customers have x1 including voice remote. we have tens and tens of thousands of on demand choices, talk to the remote and say, find me something, there it is, record something, there it is. watch it on the mobile platform. the product is just so much better, and with customer service improvements, which we're really focused on, the experience is better. bundle that with a broadband product, why is it the best in six years? investments pay off. they are good investments for things like wifi and faster wifi in and out of the home, and a new router. we've been putting out millions of these better gateways, and so our product continues to improve. we have the best products in the business, and results are paying off. >> comcast is a totally different company than disney, obviously, but when there was this selloff in old media, talking about growth, and revenues, espn would be -- it was a minor thing even that disney said, and everyone was tlo thrown into the mix there in terms of some people selling old media. did that make sense at the time, and do these results sort of fly in the face of the worries that that engendered in people? >> well, people can draw their on conclusions. it's healthy to constantly reassess your portfolio, management approach, general believes, but for comcast nbc universal, not every company is the same, we try to take advantage of the technological change coming. it's not going to be easy or that it's happen right now, but it's not easy for all companies to be in position to do that, so investing in broadband, investing in theme parks, investing in the film slate, those are opportunities that not all companies are do. we have a business services division growing 19%. that's the fastest growing part of the company. i think it is a fair conversation to say what are you doing with your company to position yourself for the reality of a new generation that want s to consume differently, but does not mean the media is not going to play a relative part of lives for today's customers and tomorrow's customerings and that's what we're trying to adjust strategy, but i think this quarter shows things are going well. >> brian, you used mergers and acquisitions as parts of the strategy. obviously, the political environment was tough with time warner cable. when you think about m&a as the strategy going forward, how you think about it? buying internationally? buy more content? can you sort of speak -- >> andrew, one of the things we did this quarter was we made really three, and we had buzz box and made investments in both companies, reaching a different audience than cnbc is, but we try to find a way to aline interests with the digital audiences, with the television audiences, and continue to find ways for our advertisers to reach both, and those investments, we are optimistic about. we also just came back from a visit to osaka where we bought 51% of a wonderful theme park, universal studios japan. it's been growing. it just launched harry potter. it has the same growth trajectory we hope and believe universal theme parks has in florida and next year opening harry potter in california, so we are absolutely looking at opportunities, but we don't feel the need to go out and make an acquisiti acquisition. we return a lot of capital to the shareholders, pleased with that. we want to continue that. we want to increase that over time. our first priority is invest in the business, invest in our customer, and look for growth opportunities that are adjacent to that. >> right. >> starting a new venture in jap with our former chief financial officer looking for new things here and abroad through private equity and different kind of vehicle than almost anything out there. we are trying to balance that, but i think that so far so good, but it was a good quarter and excited about universal japan. >> expect kam cast to get into the telephone business? reports in the past couple weeks about activation of a previously signed deal with verizon. there was a deal with sprint. is that a place to get into? >> we don't have the news today, but the wireless space is, obviously, critical to many customers, all customer, and we've been doing that with the best wifi network in the country or in our customers' lives, used all the time. the majority of the actual bits going back and forth on mobile devices is over wifi network, and so we want to keep investing in that, but we do have an opportunity with that agreement you're referring to with verizon and sprint to test things. that requires about six months to activate it. or so. we've begun that process, but we will trial things. we'll see what works for our customers. we want our content available on device, ease of use and authentication, and we trial new things, and we're really please with the investment today we made on wifi. >> what about investing, brian, in the stand alone services. watchable in beta testing, the comedy offering, 399 per month for that. i just wonder if you think that will be enough to hit inflection in video with netflix hits a million subscribers in the u.s. when does video turn around. how much a priority is that? >> well, we make improvements for five years in video, and i think, as i said, this was the best third quarter in nine years. we had pretty much, you know, a few quarters not improving, but steadily improving. the bigger r was the smi, and competition from the bells and satellite and, i think, many customers who end joy netflix also remain part of the multichannel video distribution world. so people are taking both, and we're trying to have a great experience with them to have all products, not all products, and our broadband business takes advantage of the fact that consumers want to consume now in other ways than just four years ago, three years ago, and so as you started, or as i think joe said earlier, it's a complicated land scape, and not every company has quite -- is playing offense, just being reactive. that's not the case at comcast university ver sal, and some companies are better than others, quarter to quarter, but pleased with the results posted this morning. >> amazing. a lot of cylinders are hitting. the film, 64% increase in revenue. you can't expect $3 billion films, i guess, you can tell them to do that, but you can't expect that's going to happen. that's going to be a tough comp next year. >> very tough comp next year. i have to say that the team, as you mentioned, ron, donna, and jeff shell have done a fantastic job this year. congrats to them. steve burke is leading that. right about nbc universal to take a second. we bought the company, four and a half years into our partnership together here, and we've doubled about the cash flow. that's probably the fastest growth rate of any media company. we are pleased at nbc, first place again to launch the new season. the same for our cable nets. we had a one time launching of nascar on nbc sports net. that's going to help in the future. that affected results a little this quarter, but by and large, the company and, clearly, the theme parks' exceptional performance this year, cycling the one year anniversary of the second harry potter attraction, seeing great growth, excited about the launch next year. that's right. there's going to be lumpiness. every company with film studios, that happens, and we expect next year not to equal. this is the biggest box office i think of all time so far, so we're really pleased with each part of nbc universal. >> so diversified you don't necessarily have to worry about every little thing. if there was one thing, cable networks, revenue, and you try to do advertising, and that advertising model is getting so complicated in terms of, you know, whether advertisers get their money's worth on commercials that just are skipped over, and then you wonder how long you're going to be able to charge, you know, the, you know, you get two different revenue streams with cable. you wonder how long the other one's going to continue as well if you get skinnier bundles. that's a tough business. looks like programming costs, even though you got increased advertising revenue, programming cost, you got to spend so much more money there, there was a down number in cash flow there, right? >> part of that is the expense in that case was the beginning of the nascar first time in the third quarter. >> okay. >> but we have said that cable programming nets are slowing growth than at any time in its history, and still we believe in low single distingits, but what think you can do is be part of a great group of channels, so you got, hopefully, have some successes with some misses in your networks from quarter to quarter in ratings, but if you have a great group, and we think at nbc universal we have a great group, and then, you know, interestingly, the spot advertising market continues to be doing really well. >> yeah. >> again, people have no greater way to tell their story than getting it out on television. you want to augment with digital. that's why we have box, buzzfeed, and other things, things you are talking about, and we'll see how we do as we go. it's an exciting future. ready for it. >> telling you seriously here, you know, what we have to do because people don't really take "squawk box." they watch it live, so you're solving the problem with commercials there. they watch those live, and i can't imagine no one getting it. there's user fees there, but it's a big responsibility for us to keep the entire cable operations -- >> you're doing it just fine, and cnbc and prime is doing really well too. all right cnbc is wonderful for the family. >> broad shoulders, but it is a weighty responsibility. >> brian, quickly, when it comes to ratings, the report out in the last week is comcast getting in the ratings business itself, given all of the data that you guys get through all of the homes you in, and the idea you compete with neilson, they tried to offer $100 million for the data. what are you ultimately thinking comcast's role will be in the ratings game in that business? >> well, i think it's a great opportunity, and this is one of the areas where the companies hopefully work really well or parts of the company work well together similar to how we do with symphony. we are working. joe asked the question there about the future of advertising. again, we know that people prefer to watch on a television many times, but it's not the same interactive ad or as targeted as you get on a digital device or on a computer or mobile phone, and so why is that? can we fix that? do we have the technology? do we have the data to give you more relevancy and not just any one company, and can we do it for ratings companies? can we do it for other content companies? can we offer to consumers. we're looking at those ways. it's a real opportunity. there's technological work that has to be done, and then there's, you know, what is the best strategy for the company? we're thinking about that, and, again, nothing new to report just today, but i think it's a real opportunity because of the position we're in. >> we always worry. we always worry. on wards and upwards. >> i have to say one thing. >> yeah? >> one key factor in the decision, we got to respect privacy. that's something you end joy from the company. we want to continue that as well, but we can do that anonymously and find ways to give more and better data and television spots than any other company, and we're working on that. >> all right. all right. the future is brighter, right? we worry about the future all the time, it's daunting, but it always seems to -- things -- sports programming, you pay a lot, but the next time it's twice as much five years from now, and it seems like content is, you know, the world will not change much in the next even 10-20 years, hopefully. >> people are right. companies are weary, you think about it, power forward, get this quarter like this, and it's follow-up to -- when it comes together this well. >> excellent. thank you for the time today, mr. roberts. appreciate it, brian, thanks. >> thank you mr. kernen. >> thanks. coming up, the united nations preparing the annual vote condemning the u.s. trade embargo against cuba, but for the first time, the united states may be willing to accept the rebuke. michelle caruso-cabrera has details up next. actions. they speak louder. we like that. not just because we're doers. because we're changing. big things. small things. spur of the moment things. changes you'll notice. wherever you are in the world. sheraton. ups reports quarterly profit 1.39 a share, 2 cents above estimates. revenue below forecasts on reduced fuel surcharges as well as a negative impact from a stronger dollar. ups shares down 1%. chinese e-commerce company reporting better than expected earnings and revenue. the company says buyers purchased more, across more categories and revenue growth accelerated in the quarter. that stock up 8.25%. mobile monitorization also improved as well as revenue from its big cloud unit. that is the center of growth. it's not just ali baba, but yahoo! up 6% on that news, of course, still waiting on that spinoff. jetblue with a profit of 58 cents a share, one cents above estimates. revenue essentially in line, and jetblue helped by lower fuel prices as well as new fees for checked baggage. that stock up just about .33%, andrew? that data from cnbc's exclusive fed service, and we'll tell you what to expect when apple releases quarterly results later today. that and many in a moment. healthy dose of earnings before the bell, pfizer, merck, ford, and parent company of ours, comcast, just a few names reporting this morning. a rundown of the numbers and preview of tonight's report from apple is straight highway. grading janet yellen, how is the fed chair handling the economy in the face of global economic risks? exclusive results of the latest fed survey are in, and we have the numbers. guardians prepare for battle in "halo 5," microsoft's $100 million bet keeping gamers coming back for more. the hunt for truth begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> is this debate music? that might be our debate music. oh, it's "halo" music. we should use that for the debate. it's exciting. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc, first in business worldwide, we are less than 90 minutes away from the opening bell on wall street. the futures right now, basically where they were last time we looked, 24 if you're on sirius xm, and down 3.5 on s&p and 3 on nasdaq as well. markets in europe, fractional losses in germany, france, and the ftse and, really, unchanged in italy. we still have greece on there. all right. as long as it's there. it's up .16%. >> old time sakes. >> yes. >> of course, you know what, you never know. you never know. just leave it there. cans kicked down the road do not go far, andrew. stories investors are talking about this morning, a busy day for economic numbers, 30 minutes from september durable goods oefrrders, expecta decline 1 preponderate 5 %, and the case for august showing 5.1% increase. gm now recalling 1.5 million of the older models due to a fire danger. the afted vehicles are from 1997 through 2004 years. cars in question have 3.8 liter v-6 engines. they are not aware of accidents caused thus far p joe? >> ford reported 45 cents a share, a penny below expectations. ford's cfo, bob shanks, joins phil lebeau later this morning. as you saw, hopefully, the we had the ceo of comcast on, brian roos roberts, they matched estimates and revenue of 8.7 billion, above the forecast of just over 18 billion and up 11.2% year over year, and brian roberts joined us in the last hour. >> this was a great quarter. i almost -- every part of the company, i think, you could make that statement for, and in particular, nbc universal off to an incredible start. third quarter had two great movies, theme parks growth. those are international, but, also, all parts of the company, including our cable business led the way. couple big drug makers reporting this morning. merck reported 96 cents a share, sees eps for 2015 coming in between 355 and 360, and that stock is up nicely this morning, and pfizer also trading higher, up 2.5% after revenues and earnings beat wall street expectations. ahead of estimates at 60 cents a share, and revenue in the third quarter was 12.1 billion. >> the fed is kicking off its two-day policy meeting today. investors bet the fed keeps rates on hold again, but it might be too early to rule out that rate hike this year. steve liesman has the exclusive results of the fed survey. what did you find? >> big changes in the outlook for the federal reserve and sharp divide over the outlook for rates. the timeline like always, look at when the first rate hike was, along the bottom there, you see the prior from the prior survey we did, september 2015 was the media when wall street thought rates would be hike, but pushed ahead three months, december 2015 is the new one. look at when they think the balance sheet would decline, now it's november 2016. the terminal rate, where the fed ends up was 2.7, down again. this number had been above, well above 3%, and now it's into the third quarter of 2018. i told you about that sharp divide on wall street. look at this chart right here. 20 of the 41 spresponsibilities december 2015, but 19 or so are in this january 2016, and some even in january 17. who is in the group here? people you know, people on cnbc all the time, jim paulson, mark zandy, they are still here in this going to happen this year camp, but others are in a later camp here. the fed funds rate, look at the chart. watch how much expected rate hikes are baked out of the expectations in the market. september 2015, expectation for 2016 was for a 2% funds rate. now that's come down all the way below 1% now for next year. this year, well, forget about it, just barely making it a quarter point. what are the risks to not -- what are the riffs to staying at 0? maintaining 0. 49% picked this one, less ammunition to fight the next recession. 33% say fed's credibility is risked by not hiking, 8% a financial bubble, and 5% say there's no risk. a couple quotes sets up the debate. john donaldson says the earliest possible liftoff date for the fomc is now january. that would likely require a good spending holiday season, and no winter polar vortex. >> another says, there's an increasing risk that fed is too slow in the beginning to normalize interest rates and will need to raise rates much more aggressively in the future. a big debate on wall street pushing that timing ahead and all the results from the survey are available on cnbc.com. >> thank you. we appreciate it. >> sure. >> maybe some of that can be used in the debate tomorrow, perhaps. >> zandi hawkish? i can't believe it, steve. >> yeah. mark thinks the fed ought to go. >> wow. >> i know, by the way, some high member levels of the fed share this idea. stan fisher talked about it, for example, that if you wait thooo long, you hike too quickly. that's an argument to get the quarter point and beginning this process, getting it under jr. belt. >> you see the spennobel laurea and the piece in the journal today? >> you talked about it this morning, joe. the idea is out there. i've not seen good research on this, but ultimately 0 hurts more than it helps. >> right. >> it hurts savers morings but the idea is that had helps borrowers more. >> companies do the easy thing with buybacks rather than hard things like investing in the future. we told larry summers. that was flatter with economics. have you heard flatter economics? >> i heard larry summers use terms like that. that's the problem larry has. >> i thought it was nasty. you know, shut me down. i don't want to be a flat. >> joe, the problem is, you have to ask yourself, are companies leaving legitimate good returning investments on the tail? >> he says it's demand. then, again, what if it's causing the lack in demand? take it back a step. what if that's part of the problem of the demand and we're both right. anyway, tell me we got to go. we'll talk cuba now. u.n. expected to vote to condemn the u.s. embargo of cuba in a few short hours from now. the question is how the united states is going to vote in app era of foreign relations, michelle caruso-cabrera is with us now and has a special guest. >> for 24 years now, the u.n. voted to condemn the u.s. embargo against cuba. today will not be different. what's different this time around, one, obviously, diplomatic relations reestablished. two, what's significant is that the associated press reported a month ago the u.s. was considering abstaining. unheard of for a country to vote, to not vote against a resolution that would condemn your open laws. we're waiting to see what happens. since then, reporting indicates they were not happy with the wording of the resolution, wanted to soften up, it's not soft enough, vote against it, israel with them as well, but, still, there's a bit of a drama here to see what happens. >> can you say there? >> yes. >> joining us more on the cuba situation and thoughts on presidents' candidates' views, we have carlos here, what should happen? >> well, the thing is, president obama has already said that we have to lift the embargo. that's a tremendous contradiction to vote against it. the interesting thing here is that there is a normalization process, but the language has not changed. i'm sure right now they are scrambling trying to get cuba to tone down the language allowing the u to, you know, to vote in favor of lifting the embargo. >> one of the frustrations and the situation with the los angeles is reflected in this is ever since the reestablishment of diplomatic relations, talk to business people, lobbyists who are working in theory on behalf of the interest of the cubans, although they are not paid by them, they are frustrated with the cuban response to this. no major deals. >> that's right. >> complaining the u.s. has not done enough. >> the problem is just the regulations don't sync up, and, look, u.s. regulations are not perfect either. the cuban regulations have not sunk. they are not synced up. we want credit cards or allow credit cards, but cubans don't have cuban regulations to allow our credit cards. we have to get together to matchup. it's going slowly. they are cautious. business, you know, you're running the risk of businesses turning elsewhere. >> this is marco rub yo. when i'm president, they will not recognize the cuban government, i honor the act that is preexisting conditions saying in order for u.s. policy to change, the cuban government making changes too. >> it's extreme. history suggests it will not happen. it's happened for 356 years. policy is, fold our hands, keep embargoes in place, that helps the cuban people because that leads to multiparty democracy. that's the theory for over 50 years, and so let's wait it out and wait until the cubans change, and until then, we don't do anything. how do the cue bbans change? fight? what is it we're doing opposed to just -- >> i would say on a practical level, the cat's out of the bag to use a cliche to say we resend diplomatic relations. >> oh, i agree with that. i just have a hard time imagining that we just open up a new embassy, a new president closes it. leaving things as are, i don't think bush or rubio push forward dramatical dramatically, but you don't e know. >> shutting the door is extreme, but a lot of the candidates say i brought the ford plant back to the u.s. i'm going to bring jobs back from china, mexico, and what's the policy that will actually create that dynamic? it's not happened already, labor is too cheap abroad. >> it's putting up tariffs for imports. what i hear republicans say, which is these trade deals are terrible, no more trade deals, nafta's bad, let's not do tpp. in addition to that, i'm not sure i'm immigration, boy, we're looking at a pretty deep recession in some point in the future, which is incredible because we're talking about creating jobs, and the first thing out of their mouth is trade is bad and immigration is bad. we already got more than 5.5 million jobs unfilled. it's crazy. >> we have to leave it there. this was great. >> thank you, michelle. >> my pleasure. >> thank you. i -- i was -- >> i know we pay her and everything, but doesn't hurt to thank her. >> just feels so comfortable to have you here. >> right? >> it's family. >> like family. >> first interview, michelle was there. >> is that true? >> yeah. >> amazing. >> you can stay. we have a commercial. hang on, hang on. >> okay, okay. >> wow. >> i know he wants out of here. >> no, no, no, no. >> coming up, a preview of tomorrow night's big republican debate hosted by cnbc, and platinum portfolio picks from louis? why he thinks ulta stock is a beauty. joining us in a bit to explain the portfolio. big day? ah, the usual. moved some new cars. hauled a bunch of steel. kept the supermarket shelves stocked. made sure everyone got their latest gadgets. what's up for the next shift? ah, nothing much. just keeping the lights on. (laugh) nice. doing the big things that move an economy. see you tomorrow, mac. see you tomorrow, sam. just another day at norfolk southern. 40% of the streetlights in detroit, at one point, did not work. you had some blocks and you had major thoroughfares and corridors that were just totally pitch black. those things had to change. we wanted to restore our lighting system in the city. you can have the greatest dreams in the world, but unless you can finance those dreams, it doesn't happen. at the time that the bankruptcy filing was done, the public lighting authority had a hard time of finding a bank. citi did not run away from the table like some other bankers did. citi had the strength to help us go to the credit markets and raise the money. it's a brighter day in detroit. people can see better when they're out doing their tasks, young people are moving back in town, the kids are feeling safer while they walk to school. and folks are making investments and the community is moving forward. 40% of the lights were out, but they're not out for long.they're coming back. welcome back to "squawk box," a day away from the cnbc republican debate in boulder, colorado, we e are there, ready for the big show. >> reporter: good morning, andrew, welcome to the spin room here at university of colds at boulder, the university, of course, most famous for the cnbc presidential debate. this is the cnbc set, where the magic will happen. the crew is here this morning setting up, getting the angles worked out, setting everything. let me show you the first video we have the debate stage itself. the podiums are up and in place. i was down there minutes ago taking a look at it. what you see when you look at that set a huge number of candidates out there physically. ten podiums on the stage, brig group tomorrow night. the challenge for each candidate is going left to right to be able reach out and broadcast their view across the candidates getting a word in edge wise as well. this is a big stage for tomorrow night. also, a little of news here this morning, the new "new york times" cbs poll out, this is the story line to watch going into tomorrow night. the battle between number one and number two, ben carson and donald trump. the new poll out within the hour shows that ben carson now for the first time running gnarl nationally ahead of trump. this is the first time in months trump has not been the front runner. it's one data point, but makes you wonder if we go from the summer of donald trump into the winter of carson, the retired neurosurgeon who is not a political -- experienced politician at all, and you get the sense that republican voters are looking for someone on the stage tomorrow night who's not a veteran politician, guys. that's the stage. this is the set. we're all ready to go. the debate is tomorrow night. >> i guess you're right looking at people who graduated. robert redford went to cu for a year and a half, but then -- he was a kappa -- >> are you the most famous alum then? >> that graduated. he was asked to leave after a year and a half. zb rig >> reporter: right. >> he worked at the sink, when i was there was herby's deli, but carl quintanilla went there, but it was, you know, it was in a different decade, i think, almost a different century. >> you know carl, barely skated by. >> i don't know, what was he, a j school guy? >> did he graduate? >> poly sci? >> reporter: did he graduate? >> that's the last developed y major for guys who don't know what to do. i majored in political science. now laook at me. it pays off. or not. >> did you -- the address of the place i sent you, saw where it was, right? sent you -- >> e-mailed good suggestions to take the crew tomorrow night. we'll get there. >> you have a morality clause in the contract, i know, so don't do that. thank you. >> it's tricky in colorado. >> the bus stop. congress reaches a debt deal to avoid a government shutdown. details after the break, and, later, can ups deliver for investors and consumers this holiday season? a look at the company's quarterly results and what they say about the upcoming holiday season. we'll be right back. it's a great school, but is it the right one for her? is this really any better than the one you got last year? if we consolidate suppliers, what's the savings there? so should we go with the 467 horsepower? ...or is a 423 enough? good question. you ask a lot of good questions... i think we should move you into our new fund. sure... ok. but are you asking enough about how your wealth is managed? wealth management at charles schwab. well, right now you can get 15 gigs for the price of 10. that's 5 extra gigs for the same price. so five more gigs for the same price? yea, allow me to demonstrate. you like that pretzel? yea. 50% more data for the same price. i like this metaphor. oh, it's even better with funnel cakes. but very sticky. get 15 gigs for the price of 10. and now get $300 credit for every line you switch. now at at&t a tentative budget deal averts a shutdown and sets funding levels for the next two years that avoids routine debt talks until after the next election. this agreement boosts defense and domestic spending by combined $80 million over two years. the vote could come as soon as tomorrow. you know, you hear these things are so attractable, andrew, and difficult to do and so hard, and them you see they are really what they did it last night, took five minutes, and 80 billion? >> does the word "tentative" in the headline make you nervous? >> for a day or two. >> boehner's going to do it now. he's a short timer. you know, this is not his problem. it's over. >> okay. >> this is good. >> did you see this is the last time there's a debate like this until after obama's presidency? >> yes, exactly. >> okay. >> recent wave of market volatility to retake investments, one of the leading plat norm managers is here with a stock switch, up more than 20% so far this year. you might want to follow along. the chief investment officer at navalier associates, and a legend, we have to say. how are you? >> good. >> they took out the pharmas. hillary clinton won. >> surprised by that? >> she's not going to regulate botox when she's president, but i just decided to sell on a debt cap bounce it had here, and i'm going to buy something with stronger sales growth. >> calling this the hillary bounce, or blaming squarely on her? >> health care and pharma hit by hillary clinton, the shorts filed in, no one rethinks, everyone reacts, i decided it's not a top three stock. i've -- >> is that a decision made in the short term, or are you actually saying you think she's going to win, and, therefore, that's -- >> i'm not saying she's going to win, although, bill's out, so that raises her odds. you guys, i guess, determine the presidency tomorrow, okay, so -- >> but that -- >> what do you mean bill's out in. >> well, bill east out campaigning her. >> making his first stop in iowa over the weekend, but it's a hypothetical policy. people say because it's hypothetical, used in the campaign, it's years away from being implemented, but you think there's no recovery from here? >> well, no. allergen has good sales growth. valeant is strong. they will bounce. they are volatile. what happens to guys like me managing money, we have to beat the market with less risk. >> you might argue you think long term the prospects for the company are good and you can see through what you describe as noise, i don't know if you think of it as noise, it would be a great investment? >> yes, but it's not a top three stock, okay? it's not a top three stock. irish company. the president of the united states is not going to mess with the companies that make botox. >> while on the topic, of course, valeant tried to buy them, what do you think of what's beginning on in valeant right now? >> the conference call was simple, using specialty pharmas to get people drugs cheap that don't have health care. i thought that the press conference went very well, but, again, on wall street they read the headline, not the second sentence, okay? shoot everything first and then sort it out, and valeant has to beat on earnings. we'll see a bounce -- >> not enron in your estimation? >> absolutely not. that's -- the times had an article on that, which was very unfortunate today. >> lieu look, though, at the company, and you trust it? say to yourg, 40% is shaved off that stock. you're looking for yield. you wouldn't say that's a great investment then? >> i think that -- >> assuming you're right. >> i think if you can time it, that's a very good buy at this moment. >> okay. >> and i'm looking to buy it. i have more -- actually, i'm going to buy more of it. i have not decided when i'm going to pull the trigger. >> are you pulling the trigger on energy yet? >> absolutely not. >> no. >> i'm a growth manager. i need earnings growth. this month, october, is opposite month. what was down is up, and we had a rally. the ecb will have negative yields, and, well, more negative yields in december, which is going to make the fed in december interesting, but, no, this is a weird month. this is all short covering, and it's not a good month. >> louis, thank you. >> thank you. >> breaking economic data on the other side of the break, and cnbc debates one day away. a look at the closer issue that is matter to your money and vote. special look at manufacturing, jobs, and where candidates stand on major issues when we come back. we have durable goods, looking for down 1.5, down 1.2, better than expected, however, the revision last month was down 3%, a worse revision. transportation, looking for 0.0, but 0.4. worse than expected. defense, we are looking for plus .2, we got down .3, and last month revised to down 1.6 to a down .2, again, these are not very good numbers. the target lost a tick. this is the funny part, to me, it seems like for a short while the stock market pretends it's disappointed with bad data, but hours wear on today, what we realize is that stock market is fine with bad data because we know it means the fed's probably not going to tighten. right now, the futures down 3 to down 4, yields were started at 2.035, that's the ten-year. they ticked off a little bit to 2.032. back to you, joe. >> all right, thank you. we are joined now with more, what do you think, steve? down 2%? expected? >> on the new orders, it's not a good number. the august revisions, so there's been talk, joe, and we heard ceos talk about recession in the manufacturing sector, and these numbers are along with it. everywhere i look is negative numbers other than the communication sector, and without autos and boom in auto sales and manufacturing, we'd have a real problem in the manufacturing sector of the economy. two things here. the first is it was a lousy number for orders for boeing. we know that number because they report that separately. just 29, i believe, versus 77 last year. in september. that's down on one level, and i don't think it's recurrent, but matter of reports there, they are doing well, stock market price is good, reflecting that. what's happening in the oil and gas sector? that's a big part of the orders, and the other thing is the stronger dollar. that means it's challenging exporters, and especially machinery exporters in the united states, and the u.s. economy is dealing with that, and not well. one number we have closely, nondefense capital goods, aircraft, a proxy for overall used, and down 1.3, so we -- very, very challenged here in terms of trying to overcome those two factors in the u.s. economy. >> should august revision worry us at all? >> just that it's worse than expected and would bring down an expectedly weak number for the third quarter. we were at 1.7. i don't see the shipments number. that number works into the gdp number, but if that reflects the shipments space, then, yes, revise down word on an already weak third quarter gdp forecast. >> all right. steve, they are reading comments about potentially -- >> you've seen those, right? >> yeah. it's hard to take what was a global story and make it a u.s. story. seems like the weakness -- >> no, weak neness in the u.s. from the oil and gas sector, and a positive sign here is we do seem to see oil prices stabilizing at $45. >> a week and a half ago, we had someone on talking about how many barrels we shut in in the united states. it was significant. that was when at least the point was made that the saudis won and may have broken, and we've done nothing but go down below 45, and, like, 43, and then inventories were at all time highs again. >> natural gas hit yesterday, yeah. >> idea comps were going to get better from this quarter on, i don't know whether that's true in terms of the oil and gas industry or in terms of crude. >> the economics professor does not predict oil better than anybody else. they just take what the experts out there are and fold it. most guys fold in $45 oil price. >> how great, since we're at 45, they fold in at 45. >> exactly what they do. >> i know, i know. >> bp this morning said its forecasting 60 bucks through 2017. >> god bless them. >> on average. >> lower oil prices are better for the united states because we're a net end porter of oil still, but there's a challenging period here where growth and jobs came from that sector, and we have to get beyond that. you're talking about the comps. >> the industry thought it had got the $35 bullet. we can't say that for sure yet. >> who do we have on the show all the time? for over 15 years? what's his number? >> 35. >> 35. >> that seems like good a number as any out there. >> get back to 60. >> then, boom, back down. >> people, like, saying, see, see. >> so that -- that's part of the fed's thinking, the transitory nature of this, thinking, this eventually washes out, but if they are right, more pain to come. >> i don't know now have how quickly you can -- you know, shut it down and bring it on. a lot is now they say it's on the edge, where you just -- you can open it up immediately. >> people i talked to said shale was different in that regard. it was not a big deal to reopen it, which raises questions about what it's going to take to really shut it in in a meaningful, economic way. >> steve, thanks. meanwhile, a day away from the cnbc republican debate in boulder, colorado. one topic that will surely come up as we were just discussing? job creation and u.s. manufacturing. phil lebeau is in colorado springs joining us with more on bringing jobs back to america and fact finding, phil, over to you. >> kayla, reality is candidates talk about creating hundreds of thousands, maybe a million manufacturing jobs if elected president, the reality is it's much tougher to do. we are here at ideal industries, the plant here that builds tools, about 850,000 will be shipped from this plant. i want to show you this chart because this shows the problem that manufactures are running into in the united states. as much as thepings have come back, we're nowhere close in retaining manufacturing jobs lost in the recession, and ideal industries is emblematic of what the manufacturing industry is going through. they have 2,000 employees spread out at 16 plants across the united states, at this plant here in colorado springs, they are in the process of cutting about 150 jobs. some through attrition, but there's going to be employees who are laid off. the big challenge, talking to the ceo, competing globally. you do that, then maybe bring back more jobs. >> when i hear we create a million jobs, i don't know where it comes from, but for us, you know, it comes through to be innovative, create the products that differentiate from offshore. we have to be very, very efficient. >> creating jobs, competing globally. hear about that tomorrow night in the republican debate, which you will see here on cnbc. guys, i hear this all the time from people, well, if so and so is legislated, republican or democrat, that creates tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs. easier said than done. look over six years, nowhere close to getting back to jobs lost in the recession. back to you. >> all right. okay. all right, phil, thank you. appreciate it. when we return, apple is scheduled to report today after the closing bell, and brian white joins us next with more on what to expect, and at least his opinion, and, later, one of the biggest game releases of the year is happening today, "halo 5" now available. how microsoft is cashing in on one of the most prized video game franchises around, and check out these shares of ulta this morning. the stock up 1%, year to date, up more than 3 %. we just had lou on as one of his picks in the "squawk box" platinum portfolio. to see what else he's buying, check out the squaux platinum portfolio on cnbc.com. we'll be right back. vo: know you have a dedicated advisor and team who understand where you come from. we didn't really have anything, you know. but, we made do. vo: know you can craft an investment plan as strong as your values. al, how you doing. hey, mr. hamilton. vo: know that together you can establish a meaningful legacy. with the guidance and support of your dedicated pnc wealth management team. welcome back, alibaba rising in the premarket by more than 8%. second quarter revenue 3.5 billion. earnings came in at 57 cents a share, ahead of expectations. shares of yahoo! moving, planning to spin off the stake by the end of the year. >> of course, china's a big story, too, when apple reports, scheduled to report fiscal fourth quarter results after the bell today. let's get a heads up on what it expect from the next guest. joining us now is brian white, the global head of technology equity research. brian, great to have you this morning. >> hi, good morning. >> so tell us exactly what to look for. it's supposed to be a strong iphone quarter, but the comps are pretty tough. >> yeah, exactly. iphone will be in focus. we have over 50 million, i think, the street just under 49 million, an comps get tougher. e don't think it really matters from the standpoint that growth rates we saw, seeing this a couple quarters ago were not sustainable, neither are the lowest bill digit decline or increases expected over the next couple quarters. we talk to investors, you know, i look at those two numbers and combine them and take in an average, and look at the growth there, and that's a 20% growth in iphone. >> what about supplier issue, they sent the entire industry into a tizzy this week with a negative report. that caused a lot of selling in apple ahead of this. what do you think about the supply chain. what is that tellingings about the invin tore and how apple will do? >> that's a great question. impacted the stock yesterday. there's a lot of suppliers out there. this is a relatively small supplier. look at the companies that are actually building the iphone 6s, they are great september quarter numbers. if you look at a lot of different component vendors, not just one, but aggregate them, they did well in the september quarter. we have to remember apple guided for 1% sequential sales growth, historically five year average is up 10. i look at the supply base, they did about average for this september quarter. so something we call our apple monit monitor, but apple guided well below seasonal averages. companies will do better or worse, but net-net, we are comfortable with apple. >> do you feel the company managed expectations to the low end? what should we read from that? >> they always give a conservative outlook, and this year is ultraconservative versus seasonality. there's a lot -- remember, back in july, you know, china was a big issue. there was concerns how it would impact their business, and they entered a new iphone sickle with a lot of uncertainty. it's not like apple gave aggr s aggressive guidance. it's conservative. china is a big part of the call tonight. we were in china a couple weeks ago. i think china continues to do very, very well with iphone, and 112% growth seen last quarter, obviously, is not sustainable, but it is possible. it separates, i'm surprised if china does not grow over 100% this quarter and possible to accelerate from the previous quarter. the china buzz on the call is positive. >> certainly, some of the sentiment from the ali baba conference call plays into how investors will be looking at apple after the bubble. leaving it there for now, brian. we appreciate it. >> okay, thanks. when we return, jim cramer joins us. we're in negative territory, if only slightly throughout the morning, dow down 43, and we'll be right back. s they just drop . cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. we enable you to reach global markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. cme group: how the world advances. yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. here at td ameritrade, they're always working. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? easy. we combined every birthday and holiday into one celebration. (different holidays being shouted) back to work, guys! i love this times of year. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. down to the new york stock exchange, jim cramer joining us now. apple is coming, jim. we had an analyst say whatever happens in terms of china will be a net positive for the stock. he's betting on no negative surprises from china for apple, although, there are negative surprises about just the overall economy there that might still be on the horizon, i think. >> right. well, the dialogue read through as kayla said is regarded as negative. now, the ibti reported wireless charges with apple. i found you try to read through a supplier, figure out whether they gave the business to dialogue or took it away from them. you know, the stock sells at 13 times earnings. could they be throwing cold water on projections? i would if i were them, does not pay off for projections, but it's a core holding for individualing. people are worried about large numbers. i think to own it, take advantage of the capital that they are going to return, wait for the new products, good interview with tim cook in the journal. there's a lot there. play it quarter to quarter and lose or play long term and win. >> i got to go to their store today, jim, to -- i don't know -- those chargers disappea? do your kids -- mine evaporate into thin air. >> i bought three at bed, bath & beyond, the shorthills one this sunday. i bought three because i can't find the three they took. >> i put them in a place that says this charger is not moving. this must stay here. the next time i use it, it's never there. >> you need to keep them. make them come to you to use them. no? >> that's what you say when you have no kids. >> i have go to them to use them. >> jim, can we get your take on baba up 8%. >> the line by line is so fabulous there. i'm kind of blown away. i think what they did was just ever since they issued that letter, look, we're doing much better. it's a great referendum on the chinese consumer who is obviously strong. no way you can read that through and not think chinese are spending like mad. >> can you tell us what your big question at the debate will be? if you don't want to tell us what it is, whether there's a specific person you want to ask something? >> i'm supposed to be sworn to secrecy. i think dr. carson will have to talk about the notion of reigning in drug costs. >> i looked at comcast, the parent of our company, it was down, it's now up. >> i think these ads for high speed internet is extraordinary. that's what these companies do you want a piece of a company that does high speed internet ad because of netflix, because of -- every single thing i watch is involving comcast somehow. i just think they're a winner, even though we think, wait a second, unbundled, verizon. i want high speed internet, so does everybody else. >> that's $150 billion market cap. i know we do talk about the law of large numbers. that makes me think. apple's almost 700. >> maybe we have to start getting used to bigger numbers. when merck passed gm in 1985, people said it's ridiculous what merck is valued at. you should have bought merck. >> we should not have bought cisco at 600 billion. >> no, there was a period where things didn't pay off, and lots of periods where it did pay off. >> all right, jim. i'll see you out there somewhere. war room maybe. i want to go to the war room. i need a helmet or what? i don't know. see you. >> thank you. u.p.s. reporting quarterly proo profit of 1.39 a share. the company giving a forecast for the upcoming holiday season. morgan brennan has more. what can we expect? >> on the conference call still going on, u.p.s. releasing its peak holiday season forecast. u.p.s. expects to complete 10% more deliveries between thanksgiving and new years versus this time last year. in it's planned peak day, the busiest day it expects of the year, it anticipates delivering 36 million packages worldwide. in terms of the way the company is looking to execute on this strategy and these higher volumes, it says it is going to be collaborating with customers to make sure capacity is in line with those customers needs, that was an issue last year. also installing world class technology solutions and implementing selective pricing initiatives. the conference call for u.p.s. still going on now. >> i thought you were supposed -- i thought your specialty was harleys, choppers, something, u.p.s. part of that, too? anything that moves? planes, trains, trucks? >> definitely. some of these larger more unusual shipments are something that is being discussed on that call right now. more people ordering these unusual shipments. what about eggs? how did that fit into the whole thing? you were on egg beat for a while. >> eggs are their own situation. i have to tell you, there are logistics companies that specialize in moving that type of stuff. >> i always wanted to work for u.p.s., you can park anywhere, you know? >> never get a ticket. >> very handy if you live in the city. >> a david spade joke. i can't steal it. didn't work any way. thank you, morgan. see you. >> when we return, guardian's got their hand on halo 5 at midnight last night. we'll see how microsoft will build on this franchise and what's on the line for one of the biggest game releases of the year. as we head to break, a look at top selling video games ever in case you didn't already know. number one, of course, testimtr. surprise!!!!! we heard you got a job as a developer! its official, i work for ge!! what? wow... yeah! okay... guys, i'll be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. oh! sorry, i was trying to put it away... got it on the cake. so you're going to work on a train? not on a train...on "trains"! you're not gonna develop stuff anymore? no i am... do you know what ge is? i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? >> the latest edition to microsoft's $4.6 billion halo franchise is being released today. julia has more on how much is riding on this game which microsoft spent a ton of money on. have you done your due diligence? you have ever played halo? >> i'm terrible at these first person shooter games, all these super intense games. i'm more of a minecraft girl. >> too nice. >> halo 5 guardians is important not only because it cost $100 million to produce, halo, which is exclusive to microsoft's x-box is a key way for the tech giant to recoup its investment in the x-box one. microsoft knows that consumers carefully evaluate consoles exclusive games, and halo is microsoft's biggest exclusive. >> it's critical to x-box's sulk stha success that halo is successful. the success on x-box live, encouraged by the early signs that this will do well for us. >> people certainly seemed excited at the midnight events at stores around the world. and the six-hour youtube live stream last night. reviews have been positive, particularly of a new 24 player mode, we'll have to see how it stacks up with the call of duty black ops 2, which launches next friday. expectations get higher and higher for every sequel, here we are on number five. joe? >> yep. time flies what was that? oh. black ops 3. how could we have forgotten that. >> sorry, black ops 3. >> thank you, someone told me that. thank you. for being here. >> thank you. thank you for making it worth getting up at 3:00 a.m. >> where did he go? >> he vaporized. >> he's here, then -- you guys were getting along, weren't you? >> i thought so. >> he didn't go off in a huff. >> all of a sudden, there was commercial break. >> are you here tomorrow? >> i'm only here when you're here. that's why i like it. >> keep it that way. >> i'm on my show, "squawk alley," 11:00. >> we have to go. >> safe travels. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ >> good morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber along with jim cramer. we're live from the new york stock exchange. carl quintanilla is on assi assignment. you can see we're set up, i guess we'll call it a lower open. as far as the ten-year note yield, where is it? ten-year, there we are, around the 2%

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