Tell you about outside the world of business. At least 8 people are dead and five more believed missing after severe flooding yesterday near the utah arizona border. Heavy rain swept away a roadway and these are floods that came up very suddenly. Three people at least have survived the incident. There are at least approximate 13 fires burning right now. Hundreds of homes destroyed. Well have more on both of these developing stories a bit later this morning. First andrew has todays business headlines. Lets get you caught up on the stories this hour. The bank of japan is holding off on expanding its Stimulus Program but warning that a slow down was putting further strains on the economy. Some economists say the boj could ease again next month. Well watch that. Take a look at whats going on with the nikkei closing today marginally up about. 34 . Also we have stocks closing down more than 3. 5 and at a 2. 5 week low, the Global Markets all waiting to hear from the fed on thursday. Thats the big news. Theres no shortage of expectations. The chief Investment Officer now says he sees, quote, below 50 chance that the fed hikes rates this week. Inflation running below target but the cio still expects a move before the end of the year. Used to listen to bill gross and now we listen to this guy. We still listen to bill gross too. Tried to forecast stock pric prices. Citigroup. A global recession starting in 2016 is the base Case Scenario lead by china. Its now our Global Economics teams main scenario and uncertainty remains with the likelihood of a timely and effective policy response to that global recession that seems to be diminishing right now. Everybody is already at zero. Its the reason why a lot of people say it should have happened awhile ago. In corporate news, carl icahn raising his stake in Cheniere Energy to 9. 6 . Hes the biggest shareholder in the natural gas company. A new sec filing showed he paid between 53. 60 and 54. 75 a share for his most recent stake. Last month two directors were appointed to the board. You might remember that last week jim joined us on set to disclose for the first time that he is short cheniere. We have been pretty negative on this space. Its a looming disaster. Everybody figured this out much like iron ore five years ago at the same time so everybody is building these huge plants that are immensely expensive. They cost tens of billions of dollars each. Many of them in australia and pacific rim. The problem is demand isnt growing anymore. Okay. So this to me seems like hes averaging down, isnt he . Yes, if hes continuing to buy in on these things. By the way, he didnt realize that you had icahn going long on these issues. They were crossing trades at the same time. I think hes selling shares to icahn. So far it looks like maybe i dont know, well see. He was selling eight higher levels and icahn was buying. Big tech company in the news. A problem at an apple supplier that could restrict the supply of new iphone models. Issues are said to have effected the back light. Apple placed rush orders to try to resolve that issue. Also yesterday the tech giant announced it was on pace to break its iphone sales record set last year. Also in auto news this morning, the uaw union announcing it will keep talking with Fiat Chrysler to reach a new contract after midnight. It delays a strike. The biggest issues said to involve Health Care Costs. So you wont be seeing that this morning. In other news, bmws new ceo fainted on stage. He collapsed during a news conference. He was able to walk and with us escorted off the stage and hes fine and we hope hes well. Im sure someone is making a joke there about, you know, how the cars were so amazing it caused you to faint. But i wont make that joke. Even though i just tried and failed quite miserably. Your first instinct was better. Well stay there. Hes a new ceo. He is a new ceo. A little nervous. Well, we dont know. Could be some Health Related issue or Something Like that or. Could be food poisoning. Could be a lot of people here. I dont know, we dont know. But there are people that would choose horrific fate other than speaking to a large group of people. No. We talked to about a dozen people. Im used to most of these clowns in here anyway. Trusted coworkers. Im looking at you mack. Welcome back. Welcome back, mack. Mr. Extreme sports. The grandfather that engages in extreme sports and you paid the price, im sorry. Youre not percoceted out right now. The show is important. Are you all right . What extreme sport am i talking about . Frisby. Broken collarbone, frisby. Youre a grandfather. I should be but im not. I started late. Help him hes moving chairs around. Down 25. Dow down 3 and change on the s p and down about 8 points on the nasd nasdaq. Europe was lower based. I figured it had to do with the volatility and flux again in asia and especially in china. Talk about china about every day things are keying off of whats happening over there and you can see there today, 3. 5, if it was here, then you know what kind of point gain, point loss that would be. Its a big number. Yeah, that gets your attention and then oil has been under 45 recently down at 44. 32. Take a look at the ten year. It is fed week and were still below the highest ten year if you look at the ones we monitor, were still way above, our yield is way above crappier countries. Countries that their credit worthiness does not match up with our credit worthiness and they have much lower yields. We worry about the dollar, i guess versus the yen i against the euro, that seems like an okay time to go up a quarter. Euros rallied a little bit. Which again may speak to ideas that people are starting to really doubt whether the fed will raise Interest Rates because part of the reason for that shift was the expectation that the fed would be raising rates sooner. Lets take a quick look at gold which is threatening, again, to break under 1100 level 1105. A little mini rally there as you can see at the bottom. It was approaching 1150 again but now heading back down maybe under 11. Well see. That much anticipated september fed meeting will finally take place this week. A lot of uncertainty out there about whether or not the fed will raise rates this month. Economists argued both for and against a lift off. Should they and will they . They should but they wont. The chief economist at High Frequency economics and covering it is steven parker. Why do you think they should but they wont . They probably shouldnt have allowed the markets to price it out for this week. The fact that they priced it out means they wont want to at this point. They werent telegraphing a rate hike meet so the market asums it assumes its not going to happen. They probably wont want to surprise the markets but they will counter that by suggesting its very close and the key continues to be labor market improvement. The Unemployment Rate is dropping by a percentage point per year. If the key is unemployment, it seems like were at for every reason that they should go ahead and raise there has to be a lot of other factors theyre looking at. Will the Unemployment Rate continue to fall . Thats where global turmoil and the markets come in so, the latest data along are suggesting were well on track. This idea of the market turmoil and worries about global growth, will growth slow enough to stop the downturn. If you project ahead and say unemployment keeps falling here then its a matter of time before the case picks up and the case for tightening is strong. We have been watching very closely with the markets. Theres a lot of extra volatility around this and uncertainty. What do you think happen ifs the scenario jim lays out is what takes place this week . At this point the uncertainty about will they or wont they have is having a bigger impact than the actual hike. You heard them say raise rates. Get it over with. The uncertainty is worse than the act for a lot of these economies that theyre saying are going to be directly impa impacted when you look at the u. S. Economy and places like europe the story is improving. Even with the weakness in china theres a positive fundamental story out there. You think it was sparked by uncertainty from the fed . No, certainly what was going on in china was the spark. The correction is just a normalizatio normalization. Weve been in this period where you havent seen one this is a reflection of slowing growth. You need to find those where growth can be above average. You cant just have the type of low growth environment weve seen. Where is that . Were starting to look outside of the u. S. So while the fed is approaching a tightening part of the phase you look at the bank of japan, look at the ecb theyre much earlier in their policy cycle than where the u. S. Is and as a result youre seeing weaker currencies which are a tail wind for companies in those regions. Earnings growth thats stronger out of europe for the First Time Since 2008 and japan delivered the best Earnings Growth in the world and that trend can continue. So even though we have seen this correction that weve seen a big step down in stock prices you dont think that things are attractive here in the United States . No, i think that there are certainly opportunities in the u. S. But you have to be more selective at this point in the cycle. What youve seen lead over recent years has more the better defensive sectors. The bond proxys. Now you have to go back to this idea of where is the growth. For us that means places like consumer d Consumer Discretionary and the pull back we have seen has given us the opportunity to take advantage of the sectors that have done so well recently and now were getting a second swing at them. We talked a lot about what the fed does. Are we still looking at incredibly low rates for a long time to come . Just comparatively speaking. If you have other Central Banks easing around the globe. In relative terms for sure. Once you get the first one out of the way there will be more. Theyre not going to do just one tightening. You never do just one. Theres always uncertainty. A typical fed tightening cycle is 200 basis points a year. It will be more gradual than usual. Even if they do 150 basis points a year youre still talking pretty low rates in 12 months time but lit build up. After two years if unemployment stays low. What about this idea, the city bank report that joe was quoting predicting a recession . I think the most likely scenario is a global recession that takes place in 2016. That changes the entire Morgan Stanley i think. At this point theres nothing in the u. S. Numbers to suggest a recessi recession. A lot of the rest of the world did go into recession. Particularly emerging markets but we chugged along and its the same scenario here. Look at our exports and theyre falling but if anything the domestic demand numbers are sell rating and the likelihood of us going into recession with Interest Rates this low is pretty low. You know one person thank you, guys one person that does not shy away from large crowds to speak . I can think of a couple. This person has a pretty good head of hair. I try to mimic. Did you see any of that . Donald dump . Donald trump. The donald. You saw some of it, right . I did. I was watching on one network and they switched and put oreilly on and ms and cnn, they did not leave and cnn now they i think one of our producers must be over there because they have a clock showing how many hours, minutes and seconds to the debate. 44 hours, to the debate coming up on cnn. Im surprised we dont have a countdown clock for the fed decision yet. For the fed decision . We usually do that. We usually do. The final countdown. We will be playing that music but they. Oh, we do. We do. But cnn was not at all shy about having the countdown and they were frozen on him for every word. He is whipping up by the way, both of us were flipping around last night without talking to each other looking for this. Yeah. We were watching too. Did you you always read morning money, right . Did you see the lead story this morning. Did they merge with Huffington Post yet . Not yet. Wall street is growing increasingly terrified that donald trump once viewed as an amusing summertime distraction could actually win the republican nomination for president. He took another popular shot on sunday at wall street ripping its lavish executive pay. Continues to rise in the poll. Would be wall street savers in single digits. Its now evaporating in a wave of fear. Is what he said. Says politico. You disagree with it. I dont think i disagree with it. I think thats exactly right. How is hilarys comments on wall street been . Have they been soothing . No, but theyre looking to a republican candidate to protect them. Also yesterday if you watched it he talked about cutting taxes and really talked about corporate taxes how those have to be cut. A very progrowth tax policy is going to come. You always think these republicans are going to somehow vote for a democrat. Its not going to happen. Its politico. If you look at the folks on wall street and even if you look at the way they voted historically by the way, they like hillary. They do. Like i said yesterday, they should merge and get it over with. Because they spew the same brand of politics. Anyway guys, thanks for joining us. Coming up were going to continue the conversation about donald trump. Hes holding a Huge Campaign rally in dallas. Tax plans while taking shots at his rivals. The gop front runner is met by supporters. We have that story next. But first heres a look back at this date in history. Lease the 2015 rc 350 for 429 a month for 36 months. See your lexus dealer. I was going to the library to do my homework. It was a little bit of a walk to get to the bus stop. I had to wait in line to use the computer. Took a lot of juggling to keep it all together. Whats possible when you have highSpeed Internet at home . The Library Never closes. It makes it so much better to do homework when youre at home. Internet essentials from comcast. Helping to bridge the digital divide. Tracie potts reports live from washington. Among the candidates there seems to be one target standing right in the middle of the stage and i think flanked by, correct me if im wrong, jeb bush on one side and ben carson on the other side. Its going to be ben carson for sure because he has come up so much in the polls and when it comes to donald trump going into the last debate he was a front runner but had not really he had just started to pull ahead in the polls. Now he has solidified that lead and that may be one of the reasons were seeing candidates taking aim on both sides. Number one in every single poll. Donald trump drawing 15,000 supporters and protests last night in dallas. Hell be center stage in tomorrow nights debate. The debate, i hear theyre all going after me. Whatever, whatever. Its so hard to attack donald trump because hes not playing by the rules that everybody else plays with. Hillary clinton calls trump entertaining. I kind of wish i had that same sort of mentality. Listen i dont need to tell you anything when i get there peace will be breaking out everywhere. Carly fiorina turning around trumps comments about her face. This is the face of a 61yearold woman. I am proud of every year and every single wrinkle. Dr. Ben carson, now the number two republican. Trump called the world renowned neurosurgeon an okay doctor. Its narrow minded when somebody says well hes a neurosurgeon so he only knows how to do medicine. Thats pretty stupid. Meantime, Bernie Sanders continues to draw huge crowds. This one in virginia. If we werent talking about donald trump sanders would be the biggest story of this campaign so far. No doubt about it hes the really big story of this campaign when you look at the latest polls. The way he displayed Hillary Clinton in iowa and new hampshire. For now thats why she is fighting so hard and campaigning. Donl trump will donald trump will be the focus over the next 48 hours going into this debate. Thank you. We have our countdown clock to the fed meeting. Maybe we need a countdown clock to the debate like cnn has it. But it is on cnn. Its kind of selfserving. Do you have the exact hours, seconds, minutes for us . When does that start in to recall night . Yeah. I dont have the countdown clock but that would be cool if you put one up there although i think everybody will be tuning in regardless. We have a debate. Our debate is october 28th. Its going to be a big number for hours if we do ours. We go beyond seconds. I dont want to give the suits any ideas because we may see that. They may have a meeting and theyll do it like the fed ex guy. Theyll say it like that. Coming up, jeff bezos versus Richard Bransen in the race to space. When we come back a look at yesterdays winners and losers. An a network and the cloud. Its reliable uptime. And multilayered security. 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[ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] my mom makes trains that are friends with trees. [ train whistle blows ] my mom works at ge. Welcome back, everybody. Were in the chairs this mor