The office . Asking for a friend. Obama actually returned good question bill clinton. The handle comes with the house. Know anyone interested in flotus. President obama picked up his first 1 million followers in a few hours. Ive seen other accounts that hes had. This is the first one at potus. Its cute. What happened in ramada yesterday . The fall of ramada. I saw this last night. I saw quite a bit of news on this. Where is that . Iraq . Iraq and its very close to baghdad. They have them too right . Put that twitter account. Bill clinton and first lady and hilary and all. Yeah. Anyway good morning. Good morning, how are you . Hows wall street . Not very tame. You read my column today. Its still unethical. Lawyers, or madison avenue or government or politics. Anyway. On the front page of the New York Times today they were talking about the revival of wall street. How many private email accounts do you have . How about you . 16. But i got really good stuff going on. Home depots Quarterly Results just crossing the tape. Adjusted corporate profit of 1. 16 a share. Revenue also exceeded street forecasts. Store sales rose 6. 1 compared to estimates of 5. 7 and home depot also raised its full year earnings and sales forecasts 114 now a share for that dow component. Come poen. Ponent. Yeah, home depot is there. Nikes not. I give you grief but have to go in and look. Nike is. Visa is. No. Apple. At t. No. What . Apple. Changes are coming fast and frequently. When you give that responsibility to i dont know. A couple of guys in a room. A couple of guys in a room. Although it was interesting when he came on and posted his defense. Apple back up to about 130 again. Its been like this saucer. Well see as it goes up and down. As apple goes so go the rest of the markets. Can you see it yesterday . I was watching the dow and every time the dow was up more apple was up more. If you are just waking up this morning lets get you up to speed on what happened yesterday with the markets. After yesterdays record close, check out the futures this morning. Youre going to see right now that things are look good for the bulls on wall street. Dow futures up to close to 50 points of fair value. Joe mentioned china, the shanghai composite jumping more than 3 . Among the catalysts, reform hopes. Beijing publishing guidelines that prioritize further opening of the Capital Markets and restructuring of state enterprises. Meantime in europe the ecb is a big driver today following dovish policy comments from a policy maker. Hinting that the central bank could be ready to front load its current Quantitative Easing Program buying up more assets and being more aggressive in the near term. The europe stoxx 600 up. Also check out whats happening with the euro dropping sharply against the dollar this morning but youre still looking at it close to 1. 12. Thats a big increase from a couple of months ago. Walmart will post its Quarterly Results this morning. Analysts looking for the retail giant to earn 1. 04 a share. Then on the economic agenda housing front and center april starts and Building Permits at 8 30 eastern time. Housing starts are expected to jump by more than 10 . The Global Markets are still nervous about greece. A deal is very close. He expects an agreement with bailout creditors within the next week but weve heard that before so im not holding my breath. Yeah. Individual names that we can watch this morning, include, urban outfitters. Retailer missing the mark on earnings and sales because of its anthropologie brands. The Company Expects more discounts in the Current Quarter as it tries to attract young women. That was keeping the whole place. Trying to attract young women. Thats hard. Elusive. Isnt it mark . Not anymore. Its not hard anymore or its impossible right now. Its not even part of the equation for us. A mixed quarter it was never that easy was it . Really . Anyway, Take Two Interactive erngs topping estimates driven by strong Digital Sales of its video games. Revenue fell short. Company increasing its stock buy back plan and missing on the top and bottom line despite what the Company Calls excellent order momentum during the quarter. Guidance on the weak side as well. Shares of mbia coming under pressure. Announcing a secondary offering of more than 27 million shares. Other Corporate News this morning to talk about. Starbucks and spotify teaming up on a music partnership. Theyll get access to starbucks music on spotify and have input on play lists. Spotify will be purchasing stars from starbucks and there will be incrementalty coming to starbucks customers. This is the first of many that we believe will create a significant new Revenue Source for the company but incrementalty in terms of other customers coming from other brands and companies. It will start this fall in the u. S. And well see if it rolls out from there. This is their attempt consider they sold cds for so long. But when they stopped selling the cds they did say they would still have offerings. I can understand how this can help them on the margins. Can you really get significant revenue off of spotify . I dont know how starbucks can get significant revenue off of it. If you watched the stock yesterday it was up only about. 5 . Lets look at the markets this morning. Check out the futures in this country. Yesterday didnt really tell us the whole story early on but today were looking for additional gains which would be more new highs for most of the averages up 47 points now for the dow. S p indicated up 6 and the nasdaq looks particularly strong up 15 points on the session. The dollar has been stronger and i was begging for 114 on the euro to be the intermediate top. Now you can see Dollar Strength there in terms of the way crude is acting 58. 91 although it had a nice retracement of a lot of the losses over the past year. I saw the ten year ticked up toward the end of the session yesterday. Back down a little today. 2. 2. Do i have 112 on the euro . Im looking for 112. Good, good good. How many times did i say good . Three. 1. 1194. Way overvalued at 1. 11. Says the man on his way to europe in just about a months time. Yes. I forgot about that. Wasnt thinking about that. I was not thinking about that. And then theres gold which is back above 1200. A nice rally in recent sessions but back to 1219. Another day another record run. The s p with its 9th record close this year. Housing and inflation data could weigh on investors mind. The cofounder and cio of island capital. Even the suspenders dont help at this point do they . With the younger demo. Not at all but as long as my wife is happy. Good answer. Shes young. Its a good selling point for marriage isnt it . You dont have to be a you don have to date. You dont have to exercise basically anymore. Dont have to watch with a you eat at the point. Dont have to watch how you look most of the time. But if you do those things it makes your marriage even better. I think youre right. Looking good too. Thank you. Good morning. You look good too. Yeah. We got it all going, huh. Hi becky. Lets talk after the segment. So listen mark were going down for First Quarter gdp and with your estimate for Second Quarter you have been optimistic. Are you tempering that now or do you have a lot of excuses . We have been below consensus for the last five years. We feel okay but we had 0. 5 for the First Quarter so they werent that much of a surprise. It will go negative . Mainly because of the moner the trade number in the month of march. What about Second Quarter . Second quarter is looking somewhere between 1. 5 probably. Our last forecast, the last run we had was 16 burt there seems to be a lot of down side risk to that. People think theres some underlying strength being masked by the thing out on the west coast ports or weather or dollar and everything is fine. Saying that the seasonal adjustments are off. Everything is fine. Its not a 3 year though. I dont think its seasonal. I dont think its seasonal because its a differ factor every year. There has been something that tripped us up in the First Quarter but you cant seasonally adjust the west coast port stop. The only thing recur as good china has become such a larger part of the economy and the Chinese New Year floats around in the First Quarter so it impacts the u. S. Economy differently each year and thats something thats been recurring and maybe that comes out with the benchmark revision that they release this summer. So its possible that when we get the benchmark figures in late july that well see that the under lying momentum has been better and we wont see the weakness in the First Quarter each year. Im going to summarize some of your poinltds here. Ts here. Theres a lot of noise and we treat each sound as if its the end of the world. You have the fed, greece weak gdp, Congress Lack of cap ex spending. On and on. But you say the two most important things that matter are oil and the dollar. Signals for what . Economy and stock market. Things that matter. Things that matter. Things that are going to really matter. Move the markets that we care about. And bond market. Sure. What are they say something. Oil is ahead of itself. Were in dallas. This is new york. Your firm is in dallas. Hard to believe you if you dont know where you are. Its always hard to believe me sometimes but thats why i wear a nice tie. The oil people love to drill holes and if you figure out a way to do it cheaper which the frakers frackers are doing. Theyll do it. This estimate of us cutting the rig count and oil coming down its not going to happen. Were going to see a lot more holes poked and a lot more production and thats going to put pressure on the oil price. Even if they dont complete it its like ready to go. Its almost like the minute it gets to a certain place they can bring it all on. It did cost money to continue to do that and thats why they have been raising a lot of equity and debt. Theres been a lot of money flowing into this situation a lot of it is going in energy right now. So theres a lot of liquidity and theyll use that. So that will be good for the stock market. Probably good for the bond market too because it lowers inflation expectation. What about the dollar . The dollar is attached to the whole thing. The situation with the dollar is that were in a long i think, bull market and it has to have a healthy pull back. Thats what this is. It could go a little bit more. We were talking today about the euro, et cetera et cetera but fundamentally, structurally everything that we see as far as the different monetary policies around the world, whats going on in the u. S. And china, et cetera, et cetera is good for Dollar Strength. Although it basicicly, everything, every market depends on what the fed does. The reason youve seen the dollar retrace and come back is we think the fed is going to wait longer before it raises rate which is is why you see stocks trading at such high levels. It was the most crowded trade we have ever seen. Right now as far as the biggest crowded trade was the long dollar and in this market in this kind of world anything really crowded when you start to push it the other way it gets very ugly. So its hard to read too much about the fed into this technical move. The move in the ten year has been very technical. You say oil and the dollar are both drags. Theyre certainly drags on growth. The abrupt strengthening of the dollar hit the Manufacturing Sector and you see that when you get away from oil in the factory sector. You look at the ip numbers we got last week. Outside of recessions we have rarely seen Industrial Production as weak as it has been over the last five or six months. Its been weak every month since november. Europes economy surprised up to the upside in the First Quarter. Theres been a little bit of a role reversal there and i think that all the focus that we have on the Technology Side and Services Side people forget how important manufacturing is. Thats where the economy gets its impulse and thats what is behind a lot of the moves that we have seen in Exchange Rates so far this year. We think the dollar will strengthen further. Theyre still mainlining the fed. If its past september theyll run the market up if they dont move in september. You know the september data is an interesting one. Everybody has been built around september, september and the fed has been trying as hard as they can to get away from being date specific. We were all June June June until we became September September september. If you look at the data theyre likely to see in september its going to be a gdp number less than 2 in the Second Quarter. Gdp number negative in the Second Quarter and no reading on Third Quarter gdp yet. It may be uncomfortable to raise rates. I think its very uncomfortable to not raise rates. They should have done this already. The lift off is two kinds of people in the world. Its amazing. Exactly. You theres two sides to this trade. Theres the saver sitting there having to save much much more because rates are so low. Lets raise those rates and help the saver not have to save as much. Thats great for the economy. I did a story over the weekend how about europeans are suddenly worried about the savers and the retired people who are going to be hit hard by this pollty weve been through for a long time. Its a great point becky. They have much more savings than equity. Their Balance Sheets are differ than here. Qe doesnt work as far as the economy is concerned. We have gotten everything we wanted. You cant get a mortgage anyway so theyre not getting anyone to do anything except bid up asset price which is may not be the way to run an economy just on asset inflation. You know, it does work for the wealth effect. Were seeing it in japan and china. Certainly in china. The stuff going on there is unbelievable as far as a signal. I think china is the other massive signal im focussing on and what theyre doing with inflation but it doesnt theres a certain point where it just stops working. It doesnt reach the right part of the economy. Yeah the wealth effect kind of just effecting the wealthy. Its the ultimate trickle down economics on steroids. One of the things that we hear in the Housing Market right now is that yes, we have plenty of preapprovals but theyre all bidding for the same home. They like it and then on the other side people love trickle down in terps of lowerms of on the lower taxes but on the right they dont like it. Love it and hate it just depending on which kind. Some people like trickle down government. Other people like trickle down growth from the private sector right . Yeah we need to try trickle up. We need to try to trickle up. We have to build a stronger base. Thats whats missing. You talked about it a lot on the show. We havent done anything on the tax front. The last time was in the 80s when the berlin wall was still up. It was a totally different world. Did you notice that in hindsight we were trying to figure out how they were worth 2 billion for tpg 4 years ago and its worth 8 billion now . Tell you whos buying it an irish company. A totally different valuation this they can put on. Maybe the ceo has done a great job obviously but 2 to 8 in a couple of years. Thats pretty good. And who can pay more. Was that 2 billion in equity . I think it was even less. All right. Who are you wearing there . I dont know. Its a blue sport coat. Thats not just a blue sport coat. Youll like how you look. We do too. Good to see you guys. Thats warehouse. Not a problem. Thats the hair. I know who is that. I said many times this is real human hair. Its beautiful. My wife wanted to know if its real. Its real honey. Certainly is. Did you pull on it . No i just touched it. Its real and its fabulous. All right. When we come back this morning well get the street reacting to better than expected Quarterly Results from home depot. The retail analyst will join us on set. First as we head to a break take a look back at this date in history. Y. In the us, three in ten College Students drop out. But how can you spot whos at risk . The one who lives far from campus . The one who works the night shift . The one with new responsibilities . One thing cant tell you, but the right combination can. Universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom some expect to cut dropout rates by twentyfive percent. Ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. Tu city ranks fitness among the top 50 u. S. Cities. At the top washington d. C. Do you believe that . I dont understand it. I was trying to figure out a Big Government angle as to why people were exercising there. Indianapolis holds the distinction as the least fit major metro area this year. I will say that when we go back used to go back to my hometown in cincinnati go to the zoo and tough stuff there are full figured people and individuals walking around. There are lumbering around. I know why. Its a very young town. People that work there are working there from probably 20 to 30. Theyre not fat. Theyre prefat. Well youre young and exercising. You have time to do those things. About what indianapolis. Not from indianapolis. Indiana yes but not indianapolis. Colorado maybe. . Colorado ive seen. Denver also wins. The rankings are based on outdoor exercise options. You dont need to go outdoor. Also rates of smoking, obesity and diabetes. Theres some criticism of that index however. Places like indianapolis