up let's get you up to speed on the markets. u.s. equity futures are suggesting a positive open and implied open of 70 points for the dow and s&p nearly 9 and for the nasdaq a little more than 24 points. >> right where we were yesterday before the retail sales report. here's the other big stories we're watching today. two economic reports due at 8:30 eastern. we'll hear from kohls before the bell and this afternoon watch for nordstrom among others and in corporate news general electric is going to sell it's commercial finance business. this is part of the plan to spin off most of ge capital. the business is worth around 5 billion dollars. >> the dow closed yesterday just over 18,000 so up or down or up a little some days and down a little other days. flat lining still. that's 2015 and really the story this year. good today though up 72 points indicated on the dow jones up 9 on the s&p. nasdaq, the strongest in premarket trade up 24 indicated up 25 so far on the session. european markets are mixed this morning. not a lot happening anywhere except in greece but doesn't remind me of it necessarily. in asia, a quick look and you can see that asia is also mixed not a lot happening. japan, though, down around 194 points interesting story everywhere. saudis are laughing. they orchestrated this and regained control of the oil market that they -- it was a deliberate attempt to put some of the high price oil production in the united states out of business. some of the fracking and shale production and they're acting like they have been successful but they have put a lot of their buddies in dyer position too. not just us. they're maxing out production at how many a day? >> it suggests that the market is static f. the price starts to rise again you don't think shale starts to come back again in it's not a fixed thing. >> takes awhile to close and takes awhile to open back up and whether they're really back in control is the speculation. let's look at the ten year. the market tried to go higher. stock market did yesterday and once again looked like it was trading off the bund which backed off from the 75 basis points but then got back up there, didn't it? close up near 75. >> it's like the greek market and the german bund. >> yeah, yeah. i know a lot about that. honest to god i thought it was a cake. german bund cake. now see if that thing goes to one, if it goes to 100 basis points, i don't see how the stock market continues to go higher. i just think that our ten year would go higher and then the fed would be like oh my god we can't count on low rates in europe. we can't raise because the economy is horrible: you were kind of right about that retail number. that was an important number yesterday. we were doing something else. >> i kind of said -- hold on a second. >> he came in studio and he was here. >> he was about ready to answer it. >> we decided to talk about the retail sales number. >> but the number was so bad. >> it did move the market. >> it bolstered his point that the fed screwed up. at least not been very successful. >> look at that. >> to me this looks like a huge move that you see. >> same with bonds too. the best thing i heard is somebody saying do you want me to explain why it's going up i have no idea why it went down to begin with. >> that's a good stretch one way or another but just take it easy. june 19th. heading over. >> to europe. he needs a strong dollar weak euro. >> i'll cancel at 120. >> at least it's not 136. >> unreported all economic survey data we asked people about how the dollar influenced them and they had no idea what happened to the dollar. it is not something ordinary americans know about. it has no effect on their travel. at least with our cnbc viewers and everybody else 25% said the dollar strengthened when we asked the question. the other group didn't know where to change or thought it had gone down. >> we're also going to visit germany and have to decide do i put money in bonds over there or not. >> bunds. >> bunds. >> you can definitely get some bundt cake. >> before bonds. cisco beat the street on the top and bottom line citing good revenue growth. sales in emerging markets came in a little light. ceo john chambers will wrap up his tenure and he spoke to jim cramer last night on "mad money". >> our company is in the most competitive position ever. we moved from selling boxes to outcomes. you're digitizing every country, every company. you either change and disrupt or you get left behind and cisco is the lead player and you saw that in our quarter in the balance that our public sector business around the world was up 6 to 7%. so is our commercial and enterprise. >> here with us is brian white. global head of technology and software research. software and hardware number one and globally? >> you know hardware and software is converging. >> that was a good question. >> it was a great question. you're seeing it in cisco. they have a software suite coming out. >> are you going to tell us something we don't know already. are you -- you knew that already already. tell me again. >> data center is turning into software. that's a trend that's happening. sis coe is adopting to this shift with a totally newark texture called aci and that's working so you can separate the control point in the data plain and control your switches with software. >> how many colors do -- do they make reuters anymore. >> of course. >> how many different selections would i have. >> well, differ colors in different sizes. >> is that an apple watch you're wearing. >> of course. >> you have one too right? >> yeah. i remember your comment. you like the phone call to show up. your phone is in your purse. >> >> software on the server right? >> my word processing program. >> software in the data center controls the server, controls the network. controls storage. >> so instead of selling me one thing one time i'm going to give cisco a monthly revenue. >> exactly. >> i thought number one that results were mixed because europe was slow so europe got better for them and two, number one and number two and b i thought that the dollar was going to hurt a multinational like sis coe. how much is it affected by. >> cisco is unique in that 95% of their sales are installing. >> how do they do that? >> networking industry because they go a lot through distribution. the customer may say my weak euro isn't able to buy as much. >> before it wasn't that it was currency. it was that the continent of europe was just weak. >> yeah. >> now that's improved and their stocks are better over there as well. >> europe they're doing well. i would say the real bright point for the u.s. this quarter. >> any signs that china is finally buying again or no. >> i went through china in april and sis coe had problems early on. obviously it's solved. the other thing is they have put the foot on the accelerator in not buying u.s. technology in a major way. they called it out on the conference call. sales were down 20% for cisco in china. >> when this new guy comes in do you expect any shift? >> it's been a very inquisitive company all along. that will continue? >> i think it will continue. he was on the call last night and highlighted similar philosophy in terms of acquisition. usually smaller deals but i look at this company and i think they're moving from networking to become a bigger i.t. player. the stock yields 2.9%. it trades at 9.9 times cash and when you have a product cycle nice yield, cheap valuation, investors will continue. >> it does have a good yield. almost 3%. does the new guy have that west virginia that very comforting sort of voice? >> he's not that -- it's not as pronounced as john chambers but he's from a similar area. >> is he really? >> yes. >> see that lulls me into -- i want to believe what he says. >> chambers is great. he's a legend. >> yeah. he is. all right. and so are you. >> oh. >> thank you. >> global hardware and software. do you like the white band? >> i have white, black and a couple of others. i mix it up. i actually do like the white. >> you have three different units. >> no, you just buy the bands. >> you can buy the bands. >> depending upon your mood in the morning how you feel. >> but i do have multiple units. >> oh, really? >> you could do that with the band. >> i was not there at the beginning. i muy you could buy different bands. i didn't know they snapped on and off. i came in late. >> it was off the record so it never happened. >> what are you talking about? >> we don't know what you're talking about. moving from the deeply technological let's talk about burgers because shake shack served up way better than expected results. turning a profit instead of a 3 cent loss. revenue jumping 56% and nearly $38 million and it wasn't because the new store same store sales rose by nearly 12%. investors have been eating up the stock. they're still the best performing ipo of the year up about 245%. joining us now to break down the quarter is john fortune magazine food and beverage reporter. good to have you here. they crushed the numbers, right. >> yeah, they did. >> why. >> higher traffic. they raised prices twice in september and january and that increased going there. las vegas, baltimore boston and chicago. >> isn't the burger the hot burger joint have a real low barrier? this to me feels like one of these hot things that could inevitably fade away with other competitors. >> one of the things that's interesting about how they report their numbers is they report locations after they have been open for 24 months because the demand is so strong in the beginning and it tapers off after a longer period of time and they warned that even though their average weekly spending was higher this quarter which was a bit of a surprise that eventually that number will decrease overtime. >> they call it same shack sales? >> they do. >> i like that. could you say this is a case where the ipo sort of raised the visibility in the profile of the company and more people knew about it and went? >> i think so. none of the analysts have a buy rating on the company right now. >> i didn't know that much about it and i saw it and i saw howell it did and i wanted to try one. >> part of it could be it's based in new york so we give it a little more. >> you see the lines. are there still lines? i stopped trying to go because i didn't want to wait in line for a burger. >> the madison square park location has been closed for renovations. >> the line is part of the whole stick, right? that you go to a new location and -- this was true when i was in russia. when people were gathered around somebody selling a product you would just join the crowd because you didn't know what it was. but i wanted to know. you walk by and see the line must be good. >> they were selling one tomato. >> no, a lemon. it's true. early on in the soviet union, it's a different world but you would -- everybody would gather around and get in line and people would say what are they selling and the guy next to them would say i don't know. >> they have a tomato. we haven't seen one in four years. >> but one of the things i'm curious about with the restaurant chains is a lot of them are regional restaurant chains like zoe's kitchen and they're going to try to go national and how do all of these competitors get into all of these markets and fight against the mcdonald's of the world, the chipotle, it will be tough for all of these to come in to people's neighborhoods. >> is in and out public. >> they're not. >> why? >> a lot of the burger chains, shake shack is one of the only one that has gone public of the smaller fast casual chains. >> smash burger. >> my kids are into smashburger is one and what's the one -- >> five guys. >> five guys we have gone to. i go where my kids the trendiest one and then there's the colorado one elevation burger. that's a cool one too. that's also a cool one. >> there's so many of them. >> you don't buy sell or hold? valuation is. >> very high. >> very high. >> and then there's the big kahuna burger. >> i've never been to that one. >> get on it. >> i got to go. >> might have been a movie. coming up, shares of puma bio tech tanking this morning. investors not pleased with the data from the company's breast cancer trial. the details are next. first as we head to break here's a look back at this date in history. ♪ announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so if you get a trade idea about, say organic food stocks schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab v your next big idea. ♪ ♪ ameriprise asked people a simple question: can you keep your lifestyle in retirement? i don't want to think about the alternative. i don't even know how to answer that. i mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. i try not to worry but you worry. what happens when your paychecks stop? because everyone has retirement questions. ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. to get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today. >> it's the world's biggest cancer research meeting. it doesn't start for another two weeks but last night we got our first look at some of the data presented there. meg is here. it's exciting every year. especially as some of all of this promise of all of this new molecular biology research starts to slowly come through. we wish it was faster. >> absolutely. so 5,000 data sets were dropped last night. they saved 20 of the most kpietding for thekpietd exciting for the meeting. some is immunotherapy. that's bristol myers and merck. these are big companies and we should be getting a better understanding of how the drugs work in combination and by themselves in different cancers. a lot of data coming out in nonsmall cell lung cancer last night so people excited about that but the big mover is puma biotech. their breast cancer drug disappointed some investors and analysts so with the magnitude of benefit it showed so really falling there and part of the reason it's sinking is this company is not to be a takeover target potentially and this dampens it's prospects there. analysts saying they look better than you think. wait until the meeting. we'll hear more about it but this did disappoint people and maybe this means there's a narrower potential indication for this drug. maybe it won't do as much as people are expecting. we'll see how it does in terms of the takeover prospects for puma. >> i'm wondering how big it is. >> it's about a 6 or $7 billion market cap. >> was. >> was yesterday. >> was yesterday. >> 20% hair cut. the data that you've seen could you estimate how much of it is immunotherapy? 50% do you think? >> that's a really great question. >> really in vogue. >> it is and that's what everybody is talking about and so excited about. >> anything else. >> targeted therapy is still -- puma's thing is a tki, so these that go after genetic mutations and there's all sorts of drugs. so you're seeing a lot of different things bit immunotherapies are the future but the combination of these drugs and how they work together is huge. >> american society of clinical oncology. are you going? >> i am. >> 30,000 people. >> 30,000. >> do you get excited? >> i do. >> i would too. >> i do. it's like nerd prom for us medical people. >> it's even nerdier than the nerd prom. >> oh yeah. >> much nerdier in a good way. >> yeah. >> bow ties. >> no, nobody wears ties. >> got it. >> lab coats. >> thank you. now to the latest on the investigation into why an amtrak train was going more than twice the legal speed limit when it shot off the tracks north of philadelphia on tuesday night. 7 people died. hundreds were injured. federal investigators say they haven't talked to the engineer yet. nbc's chris is live with the latest. >> at this point investigators have a pretty good idea of what happened to this train tuesday night. now the question of course is why did it happen. we're also learning more about some of those seven victims that died when this train crashed tuesday night. >> after examining amtrak's event data recorder investigators know the train was going 106 miles per hour as it entered a curve in northeast philadelphia. that's more than double the posted speed limit. the engineer of new york applied the breaks seconds before the cars left the tracks. >> the train was placed into engineer induced breaking and this means that the engineer applied full emergency, full emergency break application. >> it was too late. the locomotive and seven cars violently shuttered and went off the tracks. >> notify amtrak to shutdown the entire northeast corner. we have people on the track and a couple of cars overturned. >> frantic passengers pushed out windows and climbed over seats to escape the wreckage. among the dead a navy midshipmen headed home on leave from the naval academy. >> he was wonderful. everybody looked up to my son. and there's just no other words i can say. >> others include jim gains, a 48-year-old father of two and a bank executive. federal investigators haven't interviewed the man at the controls but philadelphia police detectives say they have spoken with him and he has turned over his cell phone and given a blood sample. >> they are going to want to know when he went off duty. when he went to sleep. when he got up. when he went on duty. what he did while he was off duty. >> so many questions, few answers in the deadliest amtrak accident in more than a decade. >> amtrak service between philadelphia and new york is still shutdown as investigators collect their clues. they're removing debris. amtrak is going in and trying to repair the rails here in this northeast philadelphia neighborhood but there's still no telling when this section of railway will reopen. live in philadelphia, back to you. >> thank you chris. the broader markets getting excited about the recent economic news. the s&p 500 and dow dipping slightly on wednesday. what will it take to get investors off the sidelines. here with us is patrick. he's the chief strategist of silver crest asset management and steve friedman senior investment strategist. how much patrick does what's happening in the fixed income markets weigh on stocks? >> i think it does because it's undermining the idea that there's going to be a low capital but you have to put it in context. people talk about a bond sell off, this is actually the end of a couple of bond rallies that have taken place this year. first of all in europe on the back of qe and then actually we've had two bond rallies in the united states this year and first in january to one more recently. the sell off after the january dip was actually steeper than this one. so actually right now, the ten year treasury is just a little bit above where it began the year. so i think it's important to put this bond sell off in context. >> can stocks maintain i guess, current valuations with a modest rise if we keep these levels right here? >> look i think what really matters certainis earnings. earnings were disappointing. there were a lot of head winds in the first quarter. particularly coming from currency. we are seeing that ease off a little bit. we also have head winds from the price of oil and impact that had on u.s.cap ex. oil prices stabilizing. what we really need is what didn't happen this week which is retail sales to come back. >> steve what i like yesterday about the trade and i don't like it when the market declines but i like the fact that the market seemed to want good economic news. i hate it when it rallies on bad news because it tells me that they really want the fed to come in but it's nice when it's focus is on the economic and behaves in the right way. is that what the markets want is better economic news? could that underpin the next move upward. >> that would be very helpful although i'm not convinced we're entirely in that mode. it depends on the day and the trading session. for the time being there's the tension of understanding what these rising bond yields mean and ultimately what economic growth data will mean for second quarter earnings. remember, though this was a pretty good rnearnings quarter but not so much on the top line. >> you say pretty good. it was 6% above what you guys estimated. you were looking for a negative 3 or 4%. >> this was relative to consensus numbers a month before. >> are we really 6% above the consensus. >> that's it. >> what's the outlook for earnings for the rest of the year here? >> excluding energy which is advising the data, if you exclude energy high single digit growth numbers and i think that's essentially the silver lining for the stock market. >> is that also your outlook for high single digit on earnings? >> i think we're going to see a recovery but it's going to be gradual. these headwinds it's really interesting what you point out which is this the fact that the market sometimes takes good news is good news and sometimes good news is bad news. it wasn't too strong. it was weak. i think that good news is good news and i am actually quite concerned about this fixation of not just in the united states but globally on easing is always the key to buy. sometimes it's happening because there's problems in europe and china, et cetera. instead of saying easing is the buy sign we should be look at the underlining fundamentals. >> joe has been pointing out that the stock market is tied to the bund. is that what u.s. investors should be watching right now? it will determine the direction of s&p 500. >> i think that cost of capital globally and the fact that qe anywhere is qe everywhere and that european qe or low rates in europe tend to push down rates in the united states, yes, that is supportive of valuations but i would much rather see stock prices rise on improved earnings than on just valuation going up. >> it's like a proxy for the interest rates around the world. >> there was a time when michelle would come in and the greek was what moved u.s. stock. >> it won't be like this forever. >> we'll make a transition. >> that's how i would do it. you see a name you're not sure how to pronounce it you calmly say, how do i say this -- you don't panic. you don't freak out. >> you're not the first and you woen wouldn't be the last. >> just ask. >> i think that's okay. >> walter was god and knew everything and today we come on and say we don't know. >> method acting. if i have something in here, i'm going to get it out. i will. it's method acting. i godo what i need to do. >> with that you may or may not tune in after the break. >> please do. the story of a venezuelan political prisoner. why investors should care about him and what's happening to his country. but first a look at s&p 500's winners and losers. ♪ when a moment spontaneously turns romantic why pause to take a pill? and why stop what you're doing to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is the only daily tablet approved to treat erectile dysfunction so you can be ready anytime the moment is right. plus cialis treats the frustrating urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term 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milk for our babies. we really live in an economic crisis and scarcity in our country. >> scarcity in our country. this is the country with the largest proven oil reserves in the world even with the price of oil where it is it should be in a far better place. but there's price controls. >> who? >> the leader of venezuela. >> i wanted you to say it. >> okay, yeah. >> i think suppressing the opposition is the right way to go. you don't have a problem if people don't know there's scarcities in the country. one stupid dictator after another has pursued that policy and my hats off to you, michelle, for pursuing the story first of all because it's really important to get it out and keep the pressure on with the political prisoners and interviewing the wife and telling that story. among the things they have done which have been followed by a bunch of other stupid regimes is kicking out foreign investors. u.s. oil companies want to go down there. that have been down there that want to do the right thing down there environmentally and with production and my understanding is their production has fallen off as a result of it. the very thing that would help them hasn't and it's that kind of relief of contrasting what's happening in venezuela with the united states and it just shows how stupid a lot of these ideas are. >> let the market work. >> it's astounding to me that there's anybody in the world that still believes socialism -- >> you don't extrapolate that to any of your other -- >> i do joe. i absolutely do. what i try to tell you and i've said this probably 10 times is it was living in russia. that made me understand -- >> you were talking about growing up in russia earlier. >> you were talking about my growing up in russia. you went right to the whole thing. >> my kids also think i'm a spy. you realize. when they watch all of this stuff. >> who knows you better. >> they think my wife and i -- but no. i was in russia working for the wall street journal and it was there that i got a wonderful appreciation for the evils of socialism. >> greatness of capitalism. >> they think you're a spy or a socialist because they watch the show for example. >> no they don't watch the show. i'm being yelled at. thank you. >> bird flu out break 158 cases over 16 states. more than 32 million birds now lost and now we're starting to see the impact hit home. egg prices beginning at a climb. we'll have a live report from iowa next. and then a tasty ceo call with the top executive at brinker international. the owner of chile's. plus later a call on crude from legendary oil man harold hamm. the volkswagen golf was just named motor trend's 2015 car of the year. so was the 100% electric e-golf. and the 45 highway mpg tdi clean diesel. and last but not least the high performance gti. looks like we're gonna need a bigger podium. the volkswagen golf family. motor trend's 2015 "cars" of the year. if you want to succeed in business, mistakes are a luxury you can't afford. that's why i recommend fast reliable comcast business internet. they know what businesses need. and there's a no-mistake guarantee. if you don't like it, you have thirty days to call and get your money back. with comcast business internet you literally can't mook a mistick. i meant to say that. switch today and get the no mistake guarantee. comcast business. built for business. welcome back. it's time for the squawk planner. 8:30 eastern weekly jobless claims and the producer price index. kohl's will post quarterly results before the bell this morning and in washington news president obama hosting representatives of the gulf cooperation council countries. they'll have a meeting at camp david. meanwhile, the bird flu outbreak continues to escalate in the midwest. usda now confirmed 158 cases in 16 states affecting more than 33 million birds. most of them are in iowa where our resident eggspert is live in eagle grove. i didn't write that stupid pun. >> that was really good. >> joe likes it. >> unfortunately it's appropriate today. so if you can see the weather is not so great out here this morning but take a look down the street behind me that's daybreak farms. until recently that had nearly 3 million egg laying hens. it's been taken off line. it's been hit by bird flu and it's contributing to what's become an 8% supply cut in the u.s. hen population. we're starting to see prices rise and rise quickly. the thing you need to keep in mind is the egg market breaks down into two categories. you have shell eggs but also breaker eggs. more than half of all production is breaker eggs and those facilities are the ones that have gotten hit the hardest. so in terms of prices in just three weeks we have seen the price of a bound of liquid hole eggs jump 77%. the eggs that you buy at the grocery store the wholesale price of a dozen midwest large is up 36 cents or 30%. so prices are rising because we're seeing suppliers like this one come off line and food companies are turning to other farms that typically supply grocery stores and consumers. this is an issue not likely to go away any time soon because experts i've spoken to here tell me that many of these facilities are not likely to get back online to another six months and even over a year in some cases. >> wow that's pretty significant. i eat eggs every morning. so this strikes close to home. i like the fact that it's called the daybreak farm because it's not even daybreak there yet morgan. thank you for getting up early and facing the weather and everything else in this important story. >> sure and that's the thing. eggs effect everybody. >> yeah. how many times can we do these things. the egg beat isn't all it's cracked up to be. >> even though she did an eggcelent job. >> it's financially devastating for so many people in this state and really onow for the state with 1 in 3 eggs being effected. a lot of these farms have been in these families for generations. people are pretty emotional about it. >> all right morgan. we appreciate it. thank you. i had one more but i can't do it. investors in brinker international, the owners feeling a little bit of indigestion right now. stock is down about 10% in the last month. more than 7% since the start of the year. brinker is not alone. competitors suffering right now. he is also the president of chili's. i'm going to do this interview but i probably should have re recused myself. you have a little place you can park when you pick up your take out from chilis and you have quite a few mexican dishes and the worst one is great. do you think i can do an objective piece here. >> you love the company too much. >> i love the rest ran. i don't know about the company. the results didn't sound great. why are they not better right now? >> our results are good. the whole category has run up. >> why has the category weakened with gas prices so low. >> there was an expectation that the gas prices would probably help all of retail and dining and casual dining and the restaurant business more than it has and number versus come in less than expected. >> we ask ourselves this all the time about why gas prices didn't filter through and i think the latest is thinking is that people are smart enough to know it isn't going to last. i'm going to bank my money. i'm not going to spend it because i know gas prices are going back up. >> yeah we had polling data on that. 60% said they were doing nothing with the money which meant they were saving it and then it was 40% but it didn't get much better than that. people vnhaven't changed their views at all. people are not really acting that way. >> not yet to the extent that we thought but what we do know is they want to eat out more. they have dialled back from the peaks and they want to dine out more. >> isn't this the first year we saw data didn't we see data this year within the last month, the secular trend which is people are spending more now on eating out than on groceries for the first time they have been collecting data in the united states. it's moveing your way but there's so much more choice and competition. >> that's the key. the key to being successful in the category regardless of how far it moves is beating the competition at things that differentiate use. for us it's the fresh mex food we're so excited about and the differentiation on the category and then our industry leading embracing of technology and bringing technology into the restaurant as a way to help enhance the guest experience and make it more enjoyable place to dine at. >> how will you decide to continue to grow? will it be with chili's? higher prices per store. >> right now we're focused on chil's. >> more locations? >> a little bit of growth. organically through the technology changes and repositioning of the menu. >> everybody is through of technology. what kind. >> we have got technology on every table in every restaurant now. so we have put a table top device in every restaurant. it allows you to interact with us in ways that you can't and haven't before and this, next week you'll be able to -- we're rolling out a loyalty program that's really unique in that it allows guests to interface with us and use their loyalty program without having to interact with a team member. >> can you talk about regional results? are you getting hurt at all in places like texas where the oil boom is going to come off? are there parts of the country doing better than others? >> there always is some regionalty to the business. the beauty of chili's is we're so diverse. we're spread out all over the country and while we are seeing some movement it's not dramatic. >> but we didn't see big dramatic shifts when oil was taking off either. it wasn't like as oil took off we saw those states really drive the business. >> any guess computer how many frank sinatra songs are played annually at maggianos. >> how many stores are there? >> 4800. >> 2.1 million. >> i don't know. >> have you seen the hbo specials on frank? >> i have not. >> i did see one recently. >> good luck. >> thank you. >> appreciate it. >> good to have you. >> coming up clash of the titans. walmart is taking aim at amazon's jungle. let the shipping wars begin. walmart trying to get in the prime market. that retail rumble, next. ameriprise asked people a simple question: in retirement, will you have enough money to live life on your terms? i sure hope so. with healthcare costs, who knows. umm... everyone has retirement questions. so ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. now you and your ameripise advisor.... can get the real answers you need. start building your confident retirement today. why do we do it? why do we spend every waking moment, thinking about people? why are we so committed to keeping you connected? why combine performance with a conscience? why innovate for a future without accidents? why do any of it? why do all of it? because if it matters to you it's everything to us. the xc60 crossover. from volvo. lease the well equiped volvo xc60 today. visit your local volvo showroom for details. when you're not confident your company's data is secure the possibility of a breach can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. we monitor network traffic worldwide, so we can see things others can't. mitigating risks across your business. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. the network that monitors her health. the secure cloud services that store her genetic data the servers and software on a mission to find the perfect match. and the mom who gets to hear her daughter's heart beat once again. we're helping organizations transform the way they work so they can transform the lives of the people they serve. watt mart is testing a new unlimited shipping service that could give amazon prime a run for its money. well below amazon's popular $99 per year prime service. joining us now chris horvers from jpmorgan. when i saw this, i thought, this is a big deal. i'm a big user of amazon prime. it has changed my shopping experience and my life. can walmart compete? >> i think they can and i think they have to. i mean, if you think about walmart has come to two realizations in the past couple years. "a"," amazon took an opportunity they failed to embrace. "b," it's hard for them to acquire new customers into those stores because they have a high market share. say 25% in groceries. they've been investing and they'll have 10 million available skews online and been investing in technology and they'll have over 200 points of distribution into the u.s. and i think the most interesting fact is if you look last year the fastest growing category in terms of online growth was consumer product goods. it's bounty cheerios tide. that's the heart of walmart and they need to do it to compete. >> what's so crucial, i've seen other retailers try to compete on this kind of shipping thing and amazon has gotten it down to such a science it's really incredible how quickly everything arrives. i am assuming based on everything you said there and they're well aware that that's how they have to compete they're going to match that customer service, even when things go wrong is also quite good on the other end. >> if you go back to how walmart crushed the competition in the 1990s, they crushed them on having better prices which amazon replicated. the breath of assortment. walmart has 130,000 skews in a super center. amazon has endless skews online. they did it by very precise and very efficient logistics. that's a walmart core competency and amazon created that. walmart in the past two years they added shipping from 100 stores. they have 132 distribution centers. they are building five of the state of the art fulfillment centers. amazon has about 70 points of distribution in north america. so, they're going to test this. they have the algorithms in place to figure out what's the cheapest shipping point and the fastest shipping point. >> does this make you downgrade amazon or upgrade walmart? >> they'll test it this summer. this is very interesting change given walmart's biggest challenge has been new customer acquisition. this gets new people in the proverbial door. >> thank you, chris. good to see you. >> thank you. >> interesting development. coming up, ben lerer. name business hind "huffington post" buzz feed and vandimo. hello. i am here to offer sophisticated investing strategies. my technology can help you choose the right portfolio. monitor it. and automatically rebalance it. all without charging advisory fees, account service fees or commissions. that may be hard to compute. but i'm a computer. so trust me. it computes. say hello at intelligent.schwab.com just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that. their wifi isn't just fast near the router. it's fast in the break room. fast in the conference room. fast in tom's office. fast in other tom's office. fast in the foyer [pronounced foy-yer] or is it foyer [pronounced foy-yay]? fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before. switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. comcast business. built for business. market alert. if you're just waking up. the euro rising sharply overnight. we'll talk strategy with david of jeffreys. changes the game for eye wear. the ceos join us on set. the 27th and 28th season of the simpson's will be missing some familiar faces. >> no, you're lying. you're lying. what makes you lie? >> the voice actor behind ned flanders and mr. burns and many more characters ss is calling it quits. >> think of the economy the car and the rich man the car. he'll drive you over a cliff. it's just common sense. >> that story ahead as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york. this is "squawk box." >> i don't know. without ned flanders? >> it's going to be devastating. >> principal skinner. >> one of the voice actors one of the ladies, i think passed away or something. she wasn't responsible for quite as many important. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. first in business worldwide. i'm joe kernen along with melissa. our guest host this morning ben lerer and managing director of hippo ventures. we'll talk tech with ben in just a minute. and like a chip off the old block. >> not so famous. but i like him. >> ben rhymes with ken. and you have the same last name. anyway, that's how i figured out who you were. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. >> i'm glad my work. >> it's better to have ken -- >> i agree. trust me. >> anyway first, michelle has the day's top headlines. >> start with an update on the amtrak train derailment that happened late tuesday night. the train was traveling 106 miles an hour. that's more than double the speed limit and slowed only slightly before derailing on a sharp curve. seven people died and more than 200 were injured in the crash. investigators are looking into other factors that may have contributed to the wreck. they say it's too early to tell if it was caused by speed alone. turning now today's top business stories. for the first time in history an auction house has sold more than $1 billion in art in one week. christie's achieved that feat in three days and more to come and modern art work on christie's auction block later today. in washington news where there is art going on. two days ago senate democrats rejected a trade bill but democrats are expected to support a trade bill today after currency manipulation language was stripped out as a separate bill. if passed, the bill would give president obama fast track authority in trade negotiations. and airlines have increased the percentage of flights with seats available for reward travel. that's according to a new study by switch fly. seats available in the sixth year since the study began. phil lebeau will have more on that story. >> that's a positive story. >> i thought airlines didn't do anything positive. >> save up all your miles and then oh, those seats. >> the value of a point has declined. go the price of a reward seat has increased over time. this is something of a reversal and they can do that with quantity and price as well. >> supply and demand. >> i'm sorry about that. >> almost as if you're a free market today. >> or you're talking about inflation and the printing of money eand printing of coins. >> i'll go home and continue my redistribution plans. >> back to normal. >> i'll do free market. >> three stocks to watch. j.c. penny. the retailer posted strong demand for apparel and women's handbags. jcpenney raising its margin and same-store sales guidance and earnings and sales at jack in the box beating the street. the fast food chain also increasing its dividend by 50% to 30 cents a share. this used to be, do you remember what it was called before? i think it was called like food nicker. you have this great brand and called foodmaker and then bought new ceo and paid him huge money and he said, i'm going to name this jack in the box and got a big bonus for that. >> you asked the interesting question in the last hour about a company that did an shake shack. did the ipo affect sales. the name of the company, definitely help sales? >> i just think why if you own woolworth. why would you call it the nator and how long did that last? >> not very long. >> costs a lot of money for names. >> you might as well have a good name. i like the guys who have the good tickers. >> that's my favorite. i love that. >> and then there is another thing, my nephew of i thought of. nightmare mergers. >> a lot of them. you think of aol time warner. >> let's get a check on the markets right now. u.s. equity futures at this hour. we were up about 70 plus this morning. we're still 72 points up on the dow. the nasdaq, if it opened under the current conditions 24 points positive to the nasdaq. and 9 points on the s&p 500. is that all we're going to look at? no we're going to look at something else there. euro dollar and probably the story of the morning here at 114. we had been as low as 106 and then we retraced what do you think, michelle about half of the appreciation of the dollar has now gone back away, right? 125. >> looking further away. >> about a third. what else are we going to do here? there we go. crossing for the first time since february. two key pieces of data later this morning or read on inflation from the producer price index and enthen the closely watched jobless. joining us for more on the markets. chief market strategist at jeffries and guest host this morning is ben lerer. >> lerer. >> lerer with an e. >> not like the anchor. >> david let's start off with you. retail sales yesterday. game changer in terms of your opinion of the comeback in the second quarter? >> not particularly. i mean, we've seen surprising increases in the savings rate with the consumer for the last, i think four quarters. it did come back down a little bit. but low 4s, up to high 5s. i think what we learned is that this consumer is more skiddish this time around. maybe having 30% down on their house price for the first time since the great depression has people more interested in promotionary spending and that's why it will take longer to get the engine of growth which is the bottom end of the income distribution. the consumer that spends all of its income to come back, to come back to where we once loved it to be in the pre-2007 era. but i don't think it's a game changer. >> do you res have down your growth forecast for the second quarter and for the rest of the year? this was going to be the 3% year. it is going to be really hard to get 3%. >> i'll tell you what i come to grips with steve. i think what we learned in the last couple quarters that the u.s. economy is not necessarily ready for a super strong dollar. we saw trade data that was terrible and gdp came out negative. forget about the consumer for a second. why are you going to set up a business in new york, when you can go set up in singapore or frankfurt to a 30% discount to where it was a year ago. i think every american worker basically got 20% to 30% more expensive over the past year when the dollar index rallied. >> this is great. since we're doing a rapid fire on solving all the puzzles that are out there. explain to me the ten-year and what is going on there and why in this environment when i've been chronicling weaker economic growth. gone from a first quarter gdp our wrap it up date was almost 3%. and now it's minus 0.7 or 0.8 and why in that environment are you prizing? >> really weak data and every bond trader scratches their head and says, that doesn't make any sense. the real story coming from europe. we had bund yields the ten-year german yield at basically zero and then something funny happened. qe got announced. everybody was long and we had this big sell-off. now we got to 80 basis points. that large selloff has been dragging all bond markets with it including the u.s. bond market. this is exactly what happened after qe1 and qe2 in the u.s. an initial rally after qe1 and then a huge selloff. 3% to 3.5% right after qe1. then in the next three months we went to 4%. everybody says, that doesn't make any sense. if the fed is going to buy all this duration why would the ten-year note sell-off. they're going to be buying all these bonds. people get more positive on the expectation that qe is going to work in europe. >> it reverses itself and goes back. >> long-term interest rates. >> we'll do israel and palestine in 30 seconds. let's bring in ben i read the notes like eight times and just tell me what you do. what does the company do? i'm sure these guys are hip to all this stuff. >> you invest in all these cool start ups that sometimes make a lot of money. >> 300 employees or something. >> i am an investor with half of my time investing in early stage technology companies. and i spend the rest of my time majority of my time building my company new media company bridging the gap between media and retail. >> what does that mean? give me a practical view. >> we built over the course of three or four years. built a nice advertising business online. as we were building that we recognized there was an opportunity to not only rent the relationship that we had built to advertisers, but also figure out a way to build a direct transaction. >> that was kind of an e-mail newsletter. >> when we started it was. it was an e-mail newsletter ten years ago. >> people would sign up. >> like a delivery mechanism. we raised money from the guys that funded daily candy. this is a decade ago when i was just a little boy. >> when you were young. >> yeah. and we built -- >> what does it look like now? tell me, you know, try to talk in terms of my -- when i go on facebook, what does it look like to me? i'm i'm serious. >> i'll make this, you're so hip. you're such a tech. >> so we have the simplest way to think about it. we have a media business called, we have two brands in our media business. one covers food, drink and travel. super compressor which covers technology and cars. and they're both think of them as magazines. online we create a ton of content. >> you hire writers and pay write snrz. >> we have a large team of writers. >> you pay for content. you're not ripping it off of some other place. >> high-quality. >> and we reach about 15 million or 20 million guys online with this content. >> then you advertise to them. >> we have an advertising team that sells advertising against them. we use this team to create content on behalf of our advertiseing advertising. >> what they wanted me to ask about, was there a tech bubble? >> that's a different thing. >> i'm still trying to figure this out because you also are managing director which never did move to silicon valley because so many going on in new york. >> the whole thesis is not to move to silicon valley. our idea is to invest in new york. >> you had no problem finding and even more things. >> look a lot of money in silicon volalley and our idea when we started lv five years ago is this is going to be a market that is going to be really important for technology. new york anything it sets its mind to it will be the best at or among the best at and a ton of industries that will be disrupted by the internet and a lot of these interesting businesses are going to get started here. >> did lerer invest in hippeau. >> i raised a large round and we write small checks. >> can i ask? do you pay attention, are you affected by moves of the dollar or the conversation that we just had? >> in my retail business we have an international arm and the 4x stuff that has been going on with the strength of the dollar does affect our international business. so about this much does that matter in my world. >> for the producers. private, equity. >> he's here for a while. >> i'm here all day. whatever you need. >> i just want to get a quick read on whether you think the market valuations that you see as private. >> you know, bubble territory it's tough to say. we focus on early stage deals. so the movement is, you know, we invest in companies when the market is hot and the premoney valuation we do might be 5 million versus 6 million. smaller movement in the market that we're investing in. >> uber. >> i think the late-stage private businesses. it's really hard to know, is uber worth 25 or 35 or 45 when you don't have the public markets to really regulate that pricing. there's a lot of money on the west coast in particular going into the late-stage businesses. uber is an amazing company. these companies raising in the billion dollars of businesses are amazing to businesses, but how amazing, i don't know. >> have you seen the company file a trade publicly where it's worth much less. it's always above where it was. >> it is above and then maybe let's look at a groupon. >> a bunch of ipos were pulled not too long ago. does that tell you that maybe the money eis not there on the back end. >> i think it's the companies the great companies are going to have very successful ideas. >> i don't know. i'm right there. >> so, you're older than the money. >> i'm 33, but i'm young at heart. >> you might be a millennial. >> i would like to be a millennial. >> we need to talk slower apparently. >> and with an uplift. >> every sentence has to be a question, right? >> we need to hold your hand, basically. >> thanks, guys. >> david. >> great having you. >> he's sticking around. coming up, big names in tech in the cnbc disrupter list. warby parker talking about eye wear and their expension from online to brick and mortar. the ceo of oscar will join us on set. plus oil man herald hamm will join us at 7:30 eastern time. find out if he thinks u.s. drillers chickened out in their showdown with opec. financial noise financial noise financial noise welcome back to "squawk box." kohl's reported results beating estimates but same-store sales were short of expectations. and, as you can see that's hitting the stock significantly. yesterday macy's wasn't great. now kohl's down almost 7%. warby parker disrupted the glass industry by offering fashionable frames online and now in stores. they're raising more funds and hope to change the way your eyes are examined. coming in at number ten on cnbc disrupter 50 list and our guest host ben lerer one of the early investors in warby parker. great to have you here. full disclosure. i have four or five pairs of warby parker glasses i have accumulated over the last several years since you opened. i remember reading online a pair of glasses can cost 600 bucks once you add in everything and you guys can do it for $99. i read online people would have more fashionable glasses and more color glasses if they were cheaper. that's absolutely what happened to me. why go now from online to having stores? >> simply we have been listening to our customers. we launched around five years ago selling 100% of our products online but we have a home trial program. customers can select any five froms from our website and include free shipping return label. we try to make the e-commerce experience easy for consumers. any time we had a pop up shop or a show room that customers loved it. we opened our first store a couple years ago in soho and now 12 stores and best in class retail economics and sales per square foot higher than almost any other retailer except for apple. so, consumers are really going with their wallets and telling us that they love the instore shopping experience. >> ben why did you invest in this company? >> look at these handsome guys. no i think they had, the thing that was immediately clear the second i met them was how thoughtful they were about the consumer. the fact that they built the brand, not sort of they didn't go and try to disrupt an industry. they really thought about what the end user wanted and they forever, i mean, as dave just said. the way they thought about going to retail they lisened to the customer like no other brand i had ever seen. >> manufactured in china? use cheaper materials? they feel cheaper to me than expensive glasses. >> oh, no e. >> i'm sorry, but that's okay. you know -- >> so, we use the same premium retails whether it's five barrel hinges with tef mraun screwlon screws. we shrank the value chain and we design the frames ourselves. we manufacturer the same factories as the big guys. but we sell direct to consumers through warbyparker.com and our stores. we're not whole saling. we take all that mark up and typical shop marking up frames from the whole sale price and we're giving that back to consumers. because it's the warby parker brand, we're not paying licensing fees. when you buy a pair of chanel frames. >> so much markup there. >> yeah, there's the company that makes that is exotica and paying a 10% to 15% licensing fees. there is no licensing fees and because we're selling right from our website, we're not whole saling. >> the second most private e commerce company in the u.s. $1.2 billion is your valuation after you raised funding in your reporting annual revenues of $100 million. >> little bit north of that. >> north. that's correct in the notes. what is it? >> we don't discuss revenues publicly. but we are growing really quickly. for us this was a great time to raise money to derisk the business and continue to invest in innovation. >> what is your exit strategy? >> i'm onboard with these guys. whatever they want to do. >> come on. valuations are so hot right now. >> i know. but, like i said, these guys are so sophisticated on how they think about brand and how they think about the customer. whatever they want to do. >> $1.2 billion right now, they could get to -- >> exotica is $25 billion. is that the general market cap right now. >> that's a nice goal. >> so what is the offer that is on the table here? >> we get 10% for how much? >> this is "shark tank" right? >> i'm ready to make an offer. >> that's funny. this is the hot strend in glasses right now. >> is that cool? >> crystal. >> these are $20 reading glasses from cvs, just so you know. that's my style. because i lose them and i break them. we got to go. >> guys great having you on. we wish you more success. a reminder neil will join us at first iconic conference tuesday may 19th in chicago. and we're bringing together influential investors and entrepreneurs including mark cuban, kevin plank and the profit market lemones. they're live, go to iconic iconicconference.com to register. we have the ceo of health care firm mario schlosser. many iconic characters are leaving the show, that story, next. time now for today's aflac trivia question. historically, how many states in the u.s. benefit from higher oil prices? 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"simpson" fans if you know this, listen up anyway please. time to say good-bye to some of the longest running characters on tv. i don't know how you do it without. for the 27th and 28th season which is amazing because bart doesn't get old and lisa doesn't get any older but harry scherarer is leaving. mr. burns principal skinner and somehow he did mr. burns and smithers. wayland smithers and many more characters on the animated show. he said on twitter that he wanted the freedom to do other work. so, it sounds like that sounds like contract. if you're doing most of the work with the "simpsons" why couldn't he do other work. it must have been precluded by, right? this is sad. i don't know how -- >> mr. burns. >> so great. >> not really still the best show ever. but mr. burns is my favorite character. >> i know. >> flanders is pretty good too. >> yeah. but you got to pick. >> you do have to pick. the relationship between smithers. >> i wonder if you could find somebody who can do the voice? >> they did that with "sesame street." they find replacement over time and charlie brown's voice changed over time. >> this happened years ago on "south park" the guy left -- >> and nobody blinked. >> they did a really funny episode. i think they had a real falling out with the actor and they tortured the character on the last episode. >> they may need to get another voice because there's no reason for, really, there's no reason for the "simpson's" to ever end. >> that's the amazing thing about animation. >> visual comic strip or something. charlie brown is never going to go away. bart is never going to age. >> can we get a close up of michelle before we go to break. >> the guys were upset that the glasses felt cheaper than some others. so to make up for it these are the warby parker i had in my bag. like i said, they have four or five pairs. they look good, right? >> they look great. >> i look like a professor. yes, i do. coming up the price of oil on the rebound as u.s. drillers dial back some production people thought that might happen. look like it finally has. up next, oil man herald hamm weighs in on american oil companies and the new ban that will ban u.s. oil exports. what if there were only one kind of dog? then it would be easy to know everything about that one breed. but in fact, there are over three hundred breeds of dogs. because no one can be an expert in every one... an app powered by ibm watson will help vets tap specialized knowledge in the cloud for every breed... and whatever else walks, flies or slithers through the door. ibm watson is working to make medicine smarter every day. if you want to succeed in business, mistakes are a luxury you can't afford. that's why i recommend fast reliable comcast business internet. they know what businesses need. and there's a no-mistake guarantee. if you don't like it, you have thirty days to call and get your money back. with comcast business internet you literally can't mook a mistick. i meant to say that. switch today and get the no mistake guarantee. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "squawk box." among the stories front and center this morning general electric reportedly preparing to sell its japanese commercial finance business. "wall street journal" saying the business is worth around $5 billion. cereal maker post warns the bird flu outbreak impacting its supply. it's decision day for tom brady. faces a 5:00 p.m. deadline for his four-game suspension. >> he has said that. he has said that. i don't know why he wouldn't. you know. i would. get it down to two, two or three, if you can. >> opening negotiating position. >> and if he doesn't appeal that, that money comes from the patriots. >> fans that are raising money to pay for, which is cute. because the patriots probably don't need the money. but i like the wording. it was more likely than not that he had a general awareness of you know maybe wanting the, just like, wow. >> that is the standard, though, in the nfl rules. the preponderance of evidence. that's the one the lawyers wrote to. >> let's hope you never go to jail for a probability of being more, not that you did something wrong. >> you sound like a patriots fan right now. >> i'm not. i'm from ohio. >> something, though. >> there are patriot haters because of their success and because he's a marquise. >> i'm one of them. >> you're a hater? >> a little bit. i'm from new york. >> hater's going to hate, hate hate. >> why are you defending brady though? >> i like, i don't think it matters. i think he's a great quarterback. >> didn't matter for that game. >> and i was a perry fan. tell me he never had -- >> patriots have done this three or four times. the organization is not doing things very well. >> so cheating is okay? what is your point here, joe? >> i'm just saying -- >> because there's a different they call it gamesmanship and other people calling it cheating. >> there's cheating in opec. >> it appears that opec's game -- >> artificial transitions for 100. >> it appears opec's game of chicken with crude production is working. cut output levels and levels now back up to the $60 range up from a elow around $45. rig counts have dropped 60% and producers have dialed back operations. ceo of continental resources joins us and the ft decided, herald soddia arabia sees success to maintain global oil and they say what they're trying to do is force out high costs oil producers out of business by producing as much as they could and they say they have succeeded. did they? >> i don't think so, joe. frankly, they almost guaranteed us by this action as they've taken it, it's dire action what they did. they use predatory pricing to cut price oil down to nothing where we can't make it they think. but i think they've guaranteed us an outlet to world supplies. you know world markets here. >> genie is out of the bottle. toothpaste is out of the tube. the livestock has left the barn. i have a few more. >> i read this as them basically saying oh, we'll let the market take control. that's essentially what they've done. used to be opec could decide and now we'll let, we've won. no they literally had to hand control to the market to do a favor at this point and the market could bite them later. >> we had our hands tied behind our back here without being able to export oil in the u.s. and, so now, looks like we may get that opportunity. >> so political outcome that would be beneficial to as a result of their decision. >> maybe they've heard some of our fracers and horizontal drillers. but do they not care of any of the less flush opec members that have had to sort of live with their decision, their own sort of self-serving decision. i mean a lot of the rest of the world that used to be allies with saudi arabia are hurting more than the united states is at this point. >> we've lived with opec for 40 years or longer. and, frankly, opec today is much different than it was back then. today opec basically, is saudi arabia and the eau because they're the only ones with production in the whole group. that's who we're talking with or that's who you're working against. we just need to build and compete and we have to get to a world market in order to do that and right now we can't -- >> it takes time. there is a delay. okay, oil goes to 40 and people turn off production. oil goes back to 70. can't they turn it back on. every time the price is going to dictate dictate. we had the ability to put these things back online quickly too, don't we? >> what it means is that we have to have the ability to export our crude in order to develop a resource. once we get that, then we dego ahead and build out the resource base here in the u.s. we have a lot a long way to go. we were gaining about a million barrels a year here and in the u.s. with our production. we had the resource. >> yeah okay. >> can you comment on president obama deciding that you open up the arctic to drilling. >> well, you know -- >> is that a significant development? >> it is. it's a development. that's not an area that i play. you know, we're lower 408 onshore u.s. that's where continental works. so that's not my game. >> it's much more expensive up there, isn't it? >> it is. >> is it helpful at this point? >> your living costs are greater you get up to northern climates and, you know, like i say, continental doesn't play that. so, any time you open up federal lands, certainly, impactful to american oil. >> how would this how do you figure out now what will eventually dictate where the price finally settles? i mean, saudi arabia can do what it wants. but, obviously, they lost control the first time around when we produced. where will it probably end up? 75? >> well, you know everybody can make predictions and you need to make them often and early. but i said that we'll see production cut back and again, that's a bad thing. jerks consumers around. you cut back production and you have short supply occur and then the price goes back up. that's the worst thick.ng. if we can have exports, you get by with all of that. you pass on to the consumer the ben fits of increased production. we're in an energy renaissance that's unheard of. it's the greatest thing -- >> is this something that democrats aren't for or republicans aren't for or is it a combination. is it bipartisan blocking? >> that's a real good question. it is bipartisan. and we've got folks from both sides of the aisle embracing it and to go forward with it. you know we've gone through about a three-year process. we knew when brant price start widening out to 20% then we knew we had a problem. and we couldn't physically get our oil into the u.s. markets because two-thirds of the refinery has been changed over. so, that was the big issue. >> this the attitude coming in on twitter. why should we export? >> you know, you get down to a net import number. when you take out the 4.5 million barrels a day that is being exported today in refined products, then you get to a net number of less than 25%. we'll have 28% foreign ownership here by foreign governments. when you look at that, we can't tell them not to bring the oil to these refineries that they own. >> thank you. see, mr. smarty pants, stuff other than tech stuff moving around. this is what makes the world go round. pay attention. thank you, herald. thank you. >> thank you. coming up the parade of cnbc disrupters continues. up next number 17 on our disrupter list. the ceo of oscar is going to join us. his company does health care for hipsters. we'll explain, next. before earning enough cash back from bank of america to buy a new gym bag. before earning 1% cash back everywhere, every time and 2% back at the grocery store. even before he got 3% back on gas. kenny used his bankamericard cash rewards credit card to join the wednesday night league. because he loves to play hoops. not jump through them. that's the excitement of rewarding connections. apply online or at a bank of america near you. we live in a pick and choose world choose choose choose. but at bedtime? 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♪ ♪ can it tell the flight attendant to please not wake me this time? ♪ ♪ the answer is yes, it can. so, the question your customers are really asking is can your business deliver? finding opportunity from obama care. oscar offers affordable health insurance to freelance workers who are now required to carry it. the company reached $1 billion valuation in barely 18 months and was just named number 17 on the cnbc disrupter 50 list. ceo and co-founder of oscar, the first new health insurance company in a decade. how many people on your rolls right now. >> 45 members. >> we went from 15,000 members last year to now 40,000 members and interesting growth pattern where you can only sign up for insurance two months in a given year. open enrollment just ended february 15th and open this year and then go up again explosively. >> are you just an overlay on the government program? you have to supply products that match the requirements of obama care, correct? >> that's correct. what is so unique about us visavy any technology start up in health care, capital and new york york, new jersey and we design our own products and own networks and that enables us to do very unique things and became the first insurance company to give free visits to any member we have. you push a button and a doctor calls you back free 24/7. you can't do this unless you are a fully capitalized insurance company. we can actually even redesign the regulatory required plans. in new york we did something we called the simple plans. health care is super confusing. that's the starting point we had in mind three years ago. and what confused people were co-pays, deductibles, out of pay. and our plans in new york basically give you some free physician visits. totally free telephone calls to the doctor and you pay up to a certain amount when you have a severe condition and then we take over completely 100% of a certain level, as well. no co-pays no co-insurance and get confused by how this thing works. >> where is the name from oscar? >> one of the co-founder's great-grandfather's names. had to drop his name and got renamed. >> so, work this through with me. i am a guy and i have, i am working for myself. a lot of people are doing that these days and particularly aimed at millennials who, joe is desperate to have watched the show. which is why we're doing the story at all. i mean, it's a ratings thing. it's a ratings thing, exactly. so, i need insurance. i'm required by obama care to have insurance and i call you up. is that what i do? go directly to you or if i go on to obama care, the website, does it direct me to you? >> all of the above, really. you can go through a broker or go for the state exchanges and directly to us and one thing very proud of now is about a third of enrollments we get come through the oscar website directly and by far the easiest and quickest way to sign up for insurance. in fact, a lot of other insurance companies across the country now copy -- >> can you think to our website from your website so millennials will come to cnbc.com. is that something we can do? >> you have good health care and get people healthy, we can do that. >> are you saying you have younger users and, therefore acchewarily you'll save money because they don't use as much health care? >> no, for two reasons. one, the regulations the way they work, risk adjustments don't even make that a-smart strategy. so t doesn't even make any sense. and the second reason, the bigger reason we did this because we want to have a good business selling to millennials and sell the company a few years. we really thought this is a messed up system health care. way too complicated. two kids over the past two years and you have know idea which pediatrician is good and who has what c-section rate. we want to take all that and take a couple years, take maybe even decades and so what we wanted to build from the beginning is an insurance company that really treats people better and get the quality of health care. >> you take underwriting risk? you do all that. >> we do all of that. in fact, one thing that is interesting the highest market share where younger people go and also the highest market share in platinum plans which is where older people, maybe the unions exactly. >> decide what your margin can be. how do you make money if they're always limiting your prof snts. >> take me to another great point which is we came to this market because the affordable care act. that was the entry into it for us. changes the game completely. shift entire market by individuals and they care a lot about pricing. which mean physical we're able to get health care costs down by treating you better and getting you healthier, more quickly, we can make up for maybe larger margeins margins. >> great. very interesting. we'll have to have you back to talk more about this. my hat's off to the person at cnbc getting these disrupters. these are the most amazing segments i've ever done. more disrupters are on the way folks. the ceo number 11 on our list. houzz. that's the name. >> that is spelled out for you. >> i didn't see that. coming up new platform portfolio picks and investment ideas in energies and pharma coming up after the break. ♪ building aircraft, the likes of which the world has never seen. this is what we do. ♪ that's the value of performance. northrop grumman. just because i'm away from my desk doesn't mean i'm not working. comcast business understands that. their wifi isn't just fast near the router. it's fast in the break room. fast in the conference room. fast in tom's office. fast in other tom's office. fast in the foyer [pronounced foy-yer] or is it foyer [pronounced foy-yay]? fast in the hallway. i feel like i've been here before. switch now and get the fastest wifi everywhere. comcast business. built for business. the squawk platinum portioleio kicking off with two buys and one sell. saira malik joins us now with her picks. good morning. >> good morning. >> platinum portfolio a big contest we do. you are keeping aramark. >> they have a new ceo in place and we're starting to see the ben fits come into play. a lot of low-hanging fruit at aramark or a lot of low-hanging vegetables. as an example, this company buys 20 different kinds of lettuce. did you know there are 20 different kinds of lettuce on the market. i certainly didn't. >> but he's going to get them chiefer cheaper or reduce the amounts of lettuce. >> go ahead joe, say it. i mispronounced it. >> people heard of aramark. >> putting in dimand back energy. >> the ticker for diamondback energy because it's all about supply and demand in the oil industry right now. demand's going up. this is all a positive for diamondback energy. they're in the permian basin which has the highest quality rock. they're getting their biggest bang for their buck. >> you think we've seen the worse in oil? >> oil prices should continue to go up from here. >> to where, though is my next question. >> we could see prices up in the level of the 90s by the end of 2016. >> are you assuming that in order to do this investment? do you need it to get there? >> we need oil prices to continue to go up. we like the permian basin. either way, we think premium to the market. >> you're eliminating visa and folding in epharma. >> we love the drug industry and r&d and better pricing. they made the deal the last week or so and that brings 33 clinical drugs into their pipeline. so, we think this is a big benefit for them and they also announced a share repurchase when they did this deal. >> major selloff recently. >> people were worried that they overpaid for it but we think this is going to bring a lot of quality assets into their pipeline. >> why did you get rid of visa and ppg? >> we like them in our portfolio, but we think alexian and diamondback are more timely right now. >> are you concerned about the rise in yields? >> we think they should brace themselves and the cost break out recently. >> you think they're related to highnerflation instead of german yields going up. >> we think a lot of factors driving it. higher oil prices and german yields and higher inflation and all of that put together. the interest rate is increasing and market more volatile going forward. >> good to have you on. >> thank you for having me. coming up, a new bond king in town, vanguard surpassing as the biggest bond fund. we'll talk to greg davis. the network that monitors her health. the secure cloud services that store her genetic data the servers and software on a mission to find the perfect match. and the mom who gets to hear her daughter's heart beat once again. we're helping organizations transform the way they work so they can transform the lives of the people they serve. flying the friendly skies. which airline ranks highest when it comes to frequent flier programs. the results of a new report are just ahead. criticizing krugman. he's here to tell us why the uk's austerity plan costs the labor party deal. his theory and view of the global economy just ahead. and mika brzezinski stops by the set to talk about her new book. she shares advice for women on the rise in the workplace. it's "squawk box," but i'll be here. the real morning joe -- >> hi, wave in the background. as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. >> announcer: live from the most powerful city in the world. new york. this is "squawk box"." >> we're going to explain why we're playing "thriller" in one second. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are first in business worldwide. i'm michelle. futures implying a positive open. the dow open higher by 117 points. we moved even higher throughout the morning. nasdaq would open higher by 34 points and s&p by 13. why were we playing thriller? in studio with us ben lerer krrxceo of thrillist. great show this morning. >> he's a man of many talents. many hats. and a millennial. >> 33. >> i think that's right on the cus. >> neal says it was confirmed. >> you are a millennial. >> do you get a card with that or something? >> i was given nothing. >> aarp. here's what's happening at this hour. we're about 30 minutes away from weekly jobless claims and the april producer price index. headline ppi seen rising by 0.1%. general electric reportedly preparing to sell its japanese commercial finance business. "wall street journal" says shares worth $5 billion. kol,'s getting slammed. but same-store sales short of expectations and we've seen that from a bunch of retailers along with the retails sales report that was lackluster yesterday. >> are you okay with this, neil? >> i'm so good with the whole thing. neal ferguson is here. opinion piece in sunday's "financial times." i don't read it very often but love to see the piece in there. the uk labour party should blame keynes for their election defeat. anyone to take krugman to task. when he came on we interviewed him. let's speak with neal ferguson, senior fellow at the hoover institute. he came in and i wanted to hear this three four, five years ago, i think. i said i kind of look at you as a unicorn. i said to him. i wasn't being, it was a pejorative but just so many of his, his ideas seemed like they have been tested and haven't worked in so many places around the world, historically. i thought we learned our lesson about a lot of these things and he called our ideas growth ideas. you know -- >> antiquated. >> ideas that are dead, but keep coming back to life. so seeing what happened and reading your piece in the uk was just pretty satisfying. he said this would never work. >> i'm not going to be at -- >> a unicorn is just very rare. >> let's just think about the issue. >> it's his stock. >> this is a major theoretical debate. the uk was going to self-destruct which means david cameron, prime minister, we're going to destroy the british economy by trying to bring the deficit under control. inherent an absolute huge deficit and exploding debt from the previous government 2010 and, again and again. professor krugman and many others would say this is a disaster. worse than the great depression. the economy is going to crater. at least there won't be a double-dip recession. this is their prediction. completely wrong. completely wrong because the uk bounced back and ended up being the fastest growing economy of the g-7 last year. and, of course that is one major reason why cameron was born road to triumph in last week's election. end of story. case closed. >> i want to try to draw some parallels here and i'm just wondering whether there are any to be drawn. i'll tell you what i mean by that. i've seen the progressive and even the far progressive part of the democratic party emboldened. i think in recent years. now, i think the president was able to put together a couple really winning strategies. he did put together coalitions and immigration there is ways that he was able to win 51%. i don't just assume that the country suddenly has moved from center right to far left. and i'm just wondering if you think that this means anything for 2016 in this country. hillary is moving left. deblasio is touring the country with his new progression vision thinking he has a chance of becoming a national politician. nobody remembers george mcgovern. >> the lesson of the uk election is, do not believe stories about a fundamental demographic, sociological shift to the left. all that was being said about the uk until the early hours of friday morning. and then the media were saying it was highly likely that cameron would be defeated and be gone. in fact, the conservatives son by a really substantial margin, now the mow majority moved. the pollsters completely failed to pick this up. almost all the people doing political commentary in the uk were wrong. this tells us a couple of things. one, it is possible for a republican to win in 2016. two, it's possible to win on conservative principles. bringing financial fiscal policy under control. tackling issues that mat arlot to people such as immigration. this is possible and i think that's the most heartening thing about last week's news. >> i had english friends tell me that polls were wrong because still in the uk, it's embarrassing to admit that you're going to vote. but still thatcher hangs over the country and somehow a negative way, even though and thank you for the book you wrote "in the wake of her death" it was marvelous. she saved the uk. she and ronald reagan together led to this transformation. why is she still? i mean the movie that comes out about her. so heartbreaking. i mean why? why don't they learn that? >> the left hate to lose. they hate to be wrong and they find it maddening when their theories collapse in real life. immediately after her death, they were abusing her. now, i think this problem of the brand is a real one. it's the vote that they're not speaking. if you're going to vote conservative, you don't tell anybody, maybe not even yourself until you walk out of the polling booth. i did it. i think that's happening in some parts of the united states. i live in cambridge massachusetts. being a conservative is not exactly hip in cambridge, massachusetts. but many of my students will come to me and say, i can't believe the atmosphere here. this was very true during the last presidential election. i can't even express support for mitt romney without getting abuse. i think this is all about a left feeling, they know they're wrong. >> the idea not from one. it's a recipe for turning around, but it's a recipe for making sure that or trying to help things from getting worse. it is, i think pretty universally accepted that two things happened in the united states. one was that deficit reduction efforts in the united states made the economy worse. the other thing is that olivia blantured has done research on this. i'm opposed. i'm suggesting that you completely oppose that we learned that in times of financial crisis during credit crises, government spending has a bigger multiplier. so it's worse for the economy to have those kind of deficit reductions during a financial crisis. you disagree with both of those propositions? >> i have great respect for olivia and the work of the international monetary fund. on the uk they have blown -- >> not just the uk. >> but the uk was the best case. >> you're leaving out the huge decline growth in 2011 2012 in the uk, as well. >> sure if you were to ask ken my colleague at harvard, this had a lot more to do with the hangover brought about by the explosion of leverage that led to the financial crisis. fiscal policy is not so all powerful as they stated. just to be clear, just to be clear, the uk has brought the debt under control. it is on track with imf figures that i'm sure olivia approved. >> but but they would create a huge amount of competence in europe that austerity in europe which has been universally, i think most people think austerity in europe was the wrong recipe at the wrong time. >> the european case is quite different. they're in a monetary union. trying to be in a monetary union with germany. completely different case. those aopposed have been vindicated because it hasn't worked. but the uk was the test case and it has worked. >> neill, the demographic change in the uk that you're talking about isn't the same that they were wrong about is not the same as the one here. what i mean by that, if you look at the numbers how they're changing in terms of latinos michelle. >> latinos should be conservatives. >> but they're not. and they've gone back and looked at the first bush election the second election. and republicans would with have lost all of those given the current demographic makeup of the united states. there are people that are saying, unless you have a way of cobbling together on the conservative side some type of coalition that president obama was able you're never going to win another election here. you don't need to move to the left. just means demgraphically. >> the uk has demographic issues similar only tougher. you had the large from mainly muslim countries and you would have thought that would have been an even bigger challenge and despite the efforts of the labor party to play the islam card. we have to ban islam phobia. that completely failed and flopped and i think the issue here in the united states is easier because i agree with you entirely. there ought to be a substantial latino vote for the republican party. it has been in the past and can be in the future. marco rubio speaking here in new york. giving a short -- >> somebody said the republican would have to win 45% of the hispanic vote. >> it's doable. totally doable. >> i think that is doable and i think it's a mistake to assume that people's voting decisions are somehow a function of their ethnicity. not at all. if the argument is made compelling as it has been in the uk. you need free markets and you also need free politics and free speech. if we make an argument for a free society and we make the argument that the stat of alternatives and increased public spending and increased public employment do not work, then i think anybody can be persuaded by that. >> nobody ever really wants to talk about whether they work or not. virtuous on the front end of all these policies. god forbid. >> the reassuring thing is that we ran the test and we did austerity in the uk and we defied the advice of nearly all the economists. paul krugman is only one of many and the economy has bounced back. massive job creation. participation rate at a record high compared with the united states for the participation rate has sunk. >> you need to come in. >> this is a job creation machine. >> i won't even mention that. what did he say about the internet in 2005? this will be gone by next year or something. no one will even remember. the fax machine. thank you, speak up. >> neill, good to have you. >> thank you. coming up, frequent flier miles used to be a brilliant marketing tool and now almost every airline offers a program. who is winning the war for your dollars? we'll tell you after the break. then publishers betting big on facebook's mobile service. another example of the way mobile is transforming the world world. jeffrey yang will be here to talk tech and what's driving innovation. 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[♪] the voice of the wild within. redeeming frequent flier points and miles is becoming easier and phil lebeau has the scorecard of the best and worst airlines. >> michelle, when i brought this up yesterday in our story meeting i immediately heard people say, no way, that's ridiculous. i can't book a flight. the fact of the matter is it is becoming easier for frequent flier members in different airlines to book flights. in fact, the latest survey done by switch fly and idea works shows that 74% of the flights that they surveyed between june and october, they had seats available for reward travel. that is the highest rate measured in this survey since it began in 2010. and the u.s. airlines, they are improving their options. now, among the u.s. carriers, who ranked the top at the top? who ranked below them? number one, for a second year in a row, southwest. 100% of the flights that were checked. they did have at least a few reward seats available. jetblue at 88% and alaska air was the most improved improving by 21 percentage points in this survey. a big turn around compared to last year. >> i think that is becoming less true, as well. i think that reward value is improving for members. what i'm especially surprised by is the fact that we're seeing more and more reward availability closer to departure. that's something that has popped up within the last five years. >> okay. so, how is this happening? why is this happening? a couple of things. first of all, credit card competition. venture one, capital one. the airlines realize they have to make their programs more aattractive and free up more seats in order to keep people coming back to their programs. accounting rules have made it easier or required, actually, if you're going to be recognizing revenue from these programs, you're going to have to be doing that once you award those seats. finally, is it possible that there is going to be an ipo in the future for a frequent flier program? if that's the case you want to make the financials look better. you want to make the program look more attractive. if down the road you decide to spin off your frequent flier program. i know people will hear this survey and say, i can't book a flight. what's the problem here? keep in mind if you're doing long hall travel guys it's still challenging. if you are trying to book a flight from chicago to paris or from new york to tokyo and do it strictly on miles. that's going to be more challenging. here in the u.s., it is getting easier, at least according to this survey. >> all right. i believe you. thank you, phil. tell me something i haven't thought of. frequent flier program going public. facebook's instant articles. this broke yesterday. a lot of people talking about it. another example of how technology and mobile is transforming the world as we know it. here to talk about the tech landskein jeff yang and the $3 billion family of early stage and early growth venture capital partners. three of red point's companies made it on to cnbc's disrupter's list. good to have you here. >> thank you for having me. >> tell me about this idea, the facebook "new york times" thing built mainly as the facebook/"new york times" thing and i'll go into my facebook feed and "new york times" articles there. >> facebook is a great place for people to spend time and they know an enormous amount about you. they know where you're from. what you like. who your family is what you read. so, they've got incredible targeting technology. >> so, i'm going to get different articles than steve gets than joe's daughter gets. >> you should. it should be a better reading experience for you. >> the initial writings about this were all about how much ankest there was among the reporters at "new york times" about this and also the revenue sharing. the vested interest clearly are worried about what this means for their future. what does it mean? >> i think the reality one of the, as things change, and as people spend more time away from their computers and more on their mobile devices this notion that you have a cookie on your computer becomes valueless. >> the app i pressed to get to the "new york times." >> reading on your computer, people are spending more time on mobile devices. so, now, it's less about device for targeting, about the person for targeting. facebook has great information for personal targeting and better targeting means better prices and cpms. >> facebook has a better way of giving me stuff. >> right. >> that i'm interested in than "new york times." what was happening, i'm spending time. once in a while when i get done reading the personal message, let me go look at my feed and you can get kind of involved in the feed. you follow it now in a way that you stop doing on facebook. >> i don't think people are using facebook for their personal messages. for the feed. and the changes you've seen on that feed over the last year and a half. >> "the times" is late to this. >> but this isn't, what this really represents is what you used to be the way that facebook worked that you got information from all your friends. about a year and a half ago ethey made a change in the facebook algorithm where they start to value not just the content that your friends were creating but brands creating and publishers were creating. your facebook feed started to feel like your twitter feed. a lot of content. deeper engagement and this that these brands are creating directly in the app is supposed to get you into this content more quickly and keep people in facebook longer. what it means for publishers now is that the traffic isn't going back, it's happening in facebook. so, it means a lot for these publishers publishers. what happens if the traffic doesn't come back to us. how do we get paid for the content we're creating. they can share. publishers would prefer not to share. >> but if ayou can't get the people to come to your site. >> the publisher can sell the inventory directly. or they can have facebook sell it and get 70% of the revenue. my guess is because facebook has much better targeting technology higher prices and the publisher will end up wanting facebook to sell. >> is there a bubble in late-stage valuation for technology companies? >> yeah. >> there is. you're definitive. >> i mean you know right now by comparables the private market is the multiples are almost the public multiples are. it's probably more pronounced and the enterprise market and the consumer market. and that is very atypical. usually between public market and private market. right now i think the private market is more -- >> it doesn't have to, trees don't grow the sky right? i think there has to be some revaluing. >> we'll talk about your disrupters throughout the day here. it's been so much fun. thanks for having on. >> thanks for having me. and coming up economic data and then move over bill goose, we introduce you to vanguard head of fixed income will join us. but after the break a wild game in new york last night. if you went to bed early, the rangers did something no other team has ever done in the history of the nhl. details after the break. financial noise financial noise financial noise ideas come into this world ugly and messy. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. when a moment spontaneously turns romantic why pause to take a pill? 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we'll give you four good reasons. the volkswagen golf. starting at $19,295, there's an award-winning golf for everyone. there's some facts about seaworld we'd like you to know. we don't collect killer whales from the wild. and haven't for 35 years. with the hightest standard of animal care in the world, our whales are healthy. they're thriving. i wouldn't work here if they weren't. and government research shows they live just as long as whales in the wild. caring for these whales, we have a great responsibility to get that right. and we take it very seriously. because we love them. and we know you love them too. welcome back to "squawk box." breaking news. jobless claims moved down to an unchanged 265. today continuing claims hover under 2.3 million. a big drop in april ppi. down 0.4. much more than we were expecting. last month up 0.2 remains unrevised. food and energy are down 0.2. if you take ex-food and energy year over year up 0.8. definitely we need to dig down deep into this and see which part of the pipeline is losing pricing steam. we will have to see the residual impact on these april numbers. the u-turn that we saw weak retail sales yesterday there is a developing u-turn right now. we moved down in yield to about 224. we're back up to 226, 227. why is that important? one would think less inflation, of course, would put pressure on yields down prices up. makes sense. it happened like that. there's more going on to the global fixed income market as it really really is stubbornly clinging to a down side in price, upside in yield. we still have a bit more data today in form of factory orders. this is the one to pay attention to. steve? . >> this is feeling a little bit like noninflationary deflationary impulse coming through the economy because it's not just energy. it's at 2.9% decline in energy products in the wholesale prices. but you've also got food's down almost a percentage point. personal consumption goods down 0.8. everything 0.1 on services, down as well. that goes along with yesterday's import prices. that kind of make what's happening with the tenure more interesting. because the decline in import prices are down. 1.3% year over year on wholesale. this is something that is relatively good for profits if input prices decline and the consumer prices remain more or less the same. it should be pretty good. >> you are saying that the yields shouldn't be rising. >> it's entirely possible the market is looking through this and saying on the other side of what happened with the dollar and we will have a surge in prices, increase in prices or stabilization in prices. but right now all the data pointed to lower prices and less inflation in the economy and just to say that the claims numbers have been terrific. if the claims numbers, i will tell you if they stay at this range, will cause economists to come back, again with projections at forecast for 250,000 jobs, again in the month of may. these are the kind of levels that we, they're fantastic levels. some of the elowest levels we've seen, i think, in a decade. that is either total numbers or as a percentage. so really good jobs numbers and no inflation and really look at deflation. >> ultimately we care about more than ppi. >> but the only good thing, maybe good for margins. >> look there it is. move over, pirx pimco $117.3 billion in assets under management recently surpassed the total return fund as the largest bond fund in the world. just a year ago -- >> nahnah. >> who's counting. just a year ago e, the funds were more than $100 billion apart. had a big hand in that fall from grace. the new bond king joins us now. greg davis, global head of the fixed income group at vanguard. my guess is greg you don't really, does it matter to be the first? admit it. does it matter to you? >> we don't use that terminology in our shop. we really look at the world in terms of how we manage money. team based collaborative approach. the whole idea of being bond king. >> you guarantee that's all that joe will call you from now on. >> okay, king. >> let's talk about what we were just discussing, which is the producer prices. bigger decline than expected. minus 0.4. import prices down and bond prices have yield. what is going on out there? >> that is really a strange outcome. when you think about what's going on in the economy and the data has been relatively muted. when you think about where we are and when you look at the labor markets. i like looking at the underemployment rate. you see that hovering around and that is pointing to 1.9 americans are still underemployed. you don't see a ton of strength in the labor market and still some pretty significant gaps there and the retail coming out this morning still points to no sign of inflation picking up in the marketplace. that is pretty supportive for yields in the near term. >> what is your outlook when it comes to the ten-year say by the end of the year and when do you think the fed is going to move? >> well, you know, let's take that piece by piece. so, in terms of the fed, it's going to be data dependent. they mentioned that multiple times. our best estimate at this point is for them to start the rate hike cycle some time in december or november. that is dependent on how it shakes up over the course of the next few months. in terms of bond yields, we expect them to stay yield. if you have a fed on hold until the end of this year, potentially, you have very moderate economic growth coming out and we're expecting 2015 growth to be in the neighborhood of 2.5% or so. again, we don't see any signs of inflation picking up. you know that type of environment you would expect that yields remain pretty well anchored. >> you sure you don't want to use any strange cat metaphors or something talking about the market. some weird thing you would like to say to help us understand what is going on out there? >> no strange metaphors come to mind at this point. i'll just leave it at that. >> does it mat arwholeter a whole lot to you if the fed moves in june, july or november on where people are putting their money in fixed income? >> we tell our investors all the time that they should be focused on the long term and what their investment goals are. news announcements and economic developments. if you're saving for retirement and saving for a child's education. you know, these short-term movements in the market are just noise and investors should tune that out. >> so if i have a portion of my portfolio in fixed income. you are saying i don't have to worry too much that these things are, rates are going to shoot up and i'm going to lose a lot of principal. balance across the terms of portfolio and bonds right now? >> i think that is one of the reasons why the total bond market has been so successful. a portfolio that is highly diversified across the entire yield curve. it has you know a pretty significant component that is in high-quality components that make up about 64% of the portfolio with the remainder being in investment grade corporate bonds and cmbs. so, you know a good a good indication of the broad bond market and for investors you know, in a rising rate environment. if you have a long-term perspective. as those bonds get closer to maturity. those payments get reinvested in higher yields. if you're a long-term investor you ultimately are benefiting in the long term if rates do rise relative to staying stable. >> greg, thanks for joining us. congratulations on taking the top spot. i would work on it a little bit. i think you need some cats or some weird stuff, i think greg, to you really want to be the true bond king. thanks for joining us. >> you know he called his mom, right? >> did you read bill gross' commententary over the years. >> yeah. all right, when we return the co-host of a eshow called "morning joe" visits the real morning joe. mika brzezinskijoins us on the set to talk about her new book. suggested positive open in the wake of the data. about the same. "squawk box" will be right back. when you're not confident you have complete visibility into your business, it can quickly become the only thing you think about. that's where at&t can help. with innovative solutions that connect machines and people... to keep your internet of things in-sync, in real-time. leaving you free to focus on what matters most. in the us, three in ten college students drop out. but how can you spot who's at risk? the one who lives far from campus? the one who works the night shift? the one with new responsibilities? one thing can't tell you, but the right combination can. universities are using ibm analytics to understand pressures in and out of the classroom- some expect to cut dropout rates by twenty-five percent. ibm analytics is working to make education smarter every day. ♪ i am never getting married. never. psssssh. guaranteed. you picked a beautiful ring. thank you. we're never having kids. mmm-mmm. breathe. i love it here. we are never moving to the suburbs. we are never getting one of those (minivan). we are never having another kid. i'm pregnant. i am never letting go. for all the nevers in life state farm is there. welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now suggest a positive open. dow open higher by 100 points and the nasdaq higher by a little more than 30 in the wake of the economic data that we got when it comes to pricing index. >> and and we are excited. really excited. to welcome mika brzezinski, co-host of msnbc "morning mika." it's -- >> it's "morning joe." >> still? >> we'll see about that. she's here to talk about her new book "grow your value." about giving women entrepreneurs the tools to work to their full potential. good morning. great to have you. >> thank you. >> just one comment. i saw ten things to help i think it was women do something right. dress right when they go for the interview. why couldn't that be me? why couldn't i use the same tips? >> nobody cares what you guys wear. that is the unfair truth. you guys are all wearing the uniforms. except for you. >> these are gender-specific tips. there is nothing for me at all in this thing? >> no, the book -- >> i'm not paid what i'm worth. >> well, we can talk about that. because some of the advice absolutely is universal. and a lot of people suffer from these struggles. >> him saying i'm not paid what i'm worth where a woman doesn't say it. >> first thing out of his mouth. he made it about himself, already. >> i made it about men. >> yes and about you. but this is a good thing. i'm teaching women how to do that. that same thing. that wasn't a bad. i wasn't criticizing. >> not all men are that bad. i was going to ask you a funny question. i don't know. we both love phil, right? we love phil. how many books can you write about how he messed up. three best sellers based on phil -- >> no, i do not, joe. do motput words in my mouth. phil is actually incredible in this book because we evolve together. and that guy -- >> you have a lot to learn. >> no, no, no. actually, i did. it was me who was in control of cutting that deal. i let it go. phil did his job. he got a good deal out of me. there is absolutely, i have to tell you nothing chauvinistic at all. he played his cards and i played mine, badly. you really wanted to say that. he sat after i came out knowing your value. which goes through my entire relationship with phil and msnbc and how it played out. he read the whole thing. the whole thing in his office with me sitting there and saying let's skip legal. put it out there, this is good for us. we'll all learn. and i'm not sucking up. i'm just saying that's actually pretty brave. >> a couple other notions. >> please. >> just a couple things to think about that made me think. i would think that we would rather have the pay gap between men and women solved by bringing women up to what men are earning. i don't want to bring, i don't think anyone wants to lower the mean down to the lower number, right? >> no. >> can we extrappialate that to the way the country right now is trying to address the income gap? >> i think at this point this is the part of the equation that women can control and ultimately every women should get what they deserve. of course, i have no problem with that. >> i want to bring everybody up to 1%. >> i don't want to topple the 1% either. i would like us to be able to have a little bit of control over our destiny. and women tend to leave it in the hands of others. >> i like that. >> they almost tried to bring it to the bigger, that you talk about on "morning joe" in the morning. income and equality and i just think that a better way to maybe look at it is, it's an kuwaittiquated and growth might be a more effective way than redistribution. >> anything that solves the problem i'm good with. i have no problem with raising people up as high as possible. >> let's get, okay, get back to more things that michelle and you. where are you having a problem right now? >> the producer i work with read your previous book and she said it was incredibly helpful to her when it came to her career. >> a lot of women came up to me and said i thought it was a few women who connect would the message. i suffer from these issues, as well. >> tell katie right now not to be portified. >> don't be mortified. >> that is part of the lesson, right? stand tall. >> any of you 20 seconds or less. what is your value and what's your brand? nobody had an answer. one of them did. raven. but the bottom line is we don't have these words at the tip of our tongue and you do. that's a good thing. ayou do and you probably do. >> would you do that, again? >> unbelievable. >> i think women who went to women's colleges are better at knowing their value. >> i went to wesley. >> i went to madera. it does give you a sense of confidence to not have that element in the room and for some reason when it ultimately you do confront it later in life that experience is extremely constructive because you develop skills you don't get when the room is diverse. i don't think that should be the only avenue. >> i agree. >> is it out? can we get it now? >> it is out. you can get it now. >> how many places have you been? how many places are you going? >> i haven't been anywhere yet. but tomorrow in washington, d.c., i'm hosting a know your value event. >> beautiful. >> the marriott in washington. we're already sold out and making room for more people because it's overselling. but it's called know your value and in it we have a lot of incredible women sharing advice, tips. doing role playing and engaging the audience and it's being streamed live on msnbc.com. in it we have the grow your business, three finalists we picked out of a slew of videos online have been coached at coaches at the human performance institute, dressed trained, regrouped in terms of what their pitch is they're getting on stage tomorrow and going to pitch live a minute or less and one of those women will walk away with $10,000. >> what do i say when i negotiate my next contract? >> i say why and here's all the data and i'm not leaving the room until you agree we're going to fix this. >> we had warby parker. i wanted some big joe scarborough glass frames and then i looked and i looked at his hair. he has more quaff than you. i can't get that. weren't going to do it for me. >> i was just going to say -- >> let me just counter with this. >> glasses aren't going to help. >> you know "squawk box" is celebrating its 20th anniversary this year. >> yes. fantastic. >> 1995 is when it started. now, by my recreckoning wasn't he a congressman until 2002 or 2004? >> yeah. >> he was not on morning tv back then? >> no, he was not. >> it's true his first name is not joe, it's charles. >> charles joseph scarborough. >> he took my name and i had already been on. >> i'm sorry. >> this is a long festering thing that i don't think we need to revisit again. >> what are you going to do with him? >> i only fill in. i don't do it every day. >> good luck. it is going to be number one. i see it already. >> i don't know what just happened. thank you for having me. that's a good thing. >> you have to go back and report back. >> okay, so -- i didn't say if i said when. >> you're saying things go way off the rails here. >> you spanked me. that's where it started. >> i did not spank you. you asked to be spapgnked and i said no. >> she's walking off the set. >> a perfectly lovely person comes on with great intentions and look what happens. >> it's beautiful. >> this is the way it happens at "squawk box." >> is this how he is with intentions and looks what happens. this is the way it happens in "squawk box." they all walk away mad. >> i may or may not be here. who knows. we head downtown to catch up with jim cramer. anyone have occasional constipation diarrhea, gas, bloating? yes! one phillips' colon health probiotic cap each day helps defend against these occasional digestive issues... with 3 types of good bacteria. live the regular life. phillips' [ male announcer ] your love for trading never stops. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ ♪ my name is jamir dixon and i'm a locate and mark fieldman for pg&e. i protect people. i protect our community. i protect our environment. when you call 811 i come out to your house and i come up to your dig site and i mark our gas lines and our electric lines to make sure you don't hit them when you're digging. most people in the community recognize the blue trucks as pg&e. my truck is something new... it's the 811 truck. we get a lot of questions about "what is 8-1-1?" and it gives me a chance to engage customers and contractors in the field. 811 is at the heart of safety. call before you dig. we want everybody to know 811 is a free service. it's important for me to get it right because this is my community... this is my environment. any time somebody is digging i treat it like it's my house or my family member's house. i want people to know what's underneath them when they're digging. i'm passionate about it because every time i go in the street i think about my own kids. my family is my life. they're the reason that i want to protect our community and our environment. and if me driving that truck means that somebody gets to go home safer, because now they know about 811, then i'll drive it every day of the week. together, we're building a better california. let's get down to the new york stock exchange where jim cramer joins us now. are you a flier fan? i guess so. was that not a great series? >> it was an unbelievable series. the swedish king is amazing. i feel bad for scott walker. >> i think he left town. suddenly there are a bunch of chokers. you're either on the bandwagon or off? >> washington turned into the new philadelphia the redskins and this action. we'll have to see what scott has to say at halftime. >> yesterday macy's, today kohl's. retail sales were bad yesterday. what's going on? >> penney was okay. i think they were hurt by the port strike. how many guys shut down the country up there. that's something we ought to be talking about, this port strike. 128 guys shut down retail? the weather was bad. things got better through the quarter for most these guys. i don't want to give up on kohl's. >> 138 really big guys. >> they're big. they shut down the country. >> really well connected, if you know what i mean. >> most powerful. i don't know how guys work in the port. >> did you see "on the water front?" >> it's good. we empower people. >> we revisit tech valuations. is there a bubble or not? ♪ ♪ [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. ♪ ♪ she can print amazing things right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. ♪ ♪ my mom works at ge. ♪ ♪ our guest host this ben lehr. i want to revisit tech valuations. we asked you at the beginning and you hemmed and hawed.é >> he was a late stage investor and he says a bubble. i can't disagree with that. i think the private late stage market is overvalued. but not the way it was overvalued during the real bubble and the real bust. >> do you think the death of cable news is imminent? >> i think there are really spectacular companies being built. >> the numbers don't justify some of the valuations but the idea that consumer behaviors have changed and more and more disruption is coming and traditional guys are going to continue to suffer is real. over time i think these will be fundamentally big. >> i'm going to mention again casper, a mattress company. >> that was you. >> that was me. >> you remember moo. >> people say buying a mattress was the worst experience and they created a great quality mattress you buy online and they ship it directly to your house in a small box. it pops open. if you don't like it, they come and pick it up. i've been sleeping on it since a year and a half ago. it will be one of these unicorns in the next year or so without question. >> ben berer thank you for coming on. >> thank you. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" coming up next. good thursday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. dave faber is at the dish summit in phoenix. we'll talk to him in a minute. >> the dollar is cooling off. wholesale prices come in soft. oil hovering around 60

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