The National Retail federation reporting on average, shoppers spent 6 less this thanks giving weekend thn they did a year earlier. Friday, it looked like it was going to be better. 11 lower in total. Online sales were all sort of on to them at this point. Today dubbed cyber monday, the traditionally Biggest Online shopping day. The consumer will spend 2. 5 billion online in one day. Well check in with Courtney Reagan in 20 minutes along with our industry analyst. And we have congress returning from the holiday recess today. Legislators have less than two weeks to figure out how to keep the government running. Funding set to expire on december 11th. Fight over spending bills comes as the party is also debating immigration. So lots going on over this holiday. Really wasnt a holiday weekend. People did work on friday. We missed you, joe. Good. Yes, thank you. Nice to be missed. Were going to talk oil in just a second. Another Washington News today, the Supreme Court is going to hear arguments in a facebook threats case. At issue, the free speech writes of people who use threatening or violent language on social media. The case before the court involves a man sentenced for posting graphically violent rap lyrics about killing his estranged wife, shooting up a class of kids, and attacking an fbi agent. He says he was just venting. Didnt mean to threaten anyone. His wife and federal prosecutors didnt take it quite as lightly and didnt agree. In global news, hundreds of prodemocracy protesters are clashing with police. Earlier this morning in hong kongs government headquarters, clashes began yesterday. The latest in what has been more than two months old prodemocracy movement and demonstrators are demanding free elections for the citys next leader in 2017. Sony pictures is cleaning up from a massive cyber attack. Several of the latest films have been leaked on line including furrey and remake of annie. The fbi is now involved in the investigation. Theyre looking into any possible connection. They think there is a north korea connection, actually, and a cyber attack knocking out the studios Computer Network a week ago has something to do with it. Sony hired a Forensics Company to help recover those films. At this point, some of them have been downloaded nearly a million times already. U. S. Authorities losing a motion to have an internet entrepreneur thrown in jail until the extradition hearing. The u. S. Wants kim. Com to be held in jail before the hearing to face piracy charges. Rejectsing allegation thats kim. Com that founded the mega upload was a risk. They had not broken bail conditions after taken into custody by u. S. And new zealand authorities in 2012. Do dotcom is accused of massive copy writing infringe. In 2005 that site was acted in the transactions. His name is dotcom and got into hightech. That is really weird. Just very, very, very strange. Isnt it . Lets check on the markets this morning. Lets look at the fults atures what is happening after six months gains of the markets are down 62 points. Big piece on the china slowdown in the wall street journal. But at the same time, a piece on oil that says its not demand. Its supply. So we got to figure out when we if only we had a true expert in studio with us today. Since we dont, we have john kilda. Im kidding. Good to have you back. Like we said, we tried the rest. Were going to come back to the best. Like im a pizza box. Were talking in a second. Lets check out europe quickly then well get to what i think is im going to rail on oil because, you know, we play that serious music, which i love. Which i love and i think its very effective music. But id be playing let the good times roll by the cars. Rollout the barrel. I would be playing every happy sound in the world. But perhaps this Long National nightmare is over of 100 oil orchestrated by basically by cartel. You can look at the down side and say oh, my gosh. Now oil so cheap that were not going to migrate to oil or to wind and solar and, you know, thats giving i saw something on the Huffington Post this morning. This is a this is threaded. This is awful. This is all the progress we made were forcing people to migrate to much more expensive renewables is not going to work now. And thats for that reason, the move to a noncapitalistic type of economy where people dont travel and we get more agrarian based on climate change, much harder to do with oil where it is now. Wind and solar will be find, joe. Lets look at the ten year. Theyre not economically viable where they are. Solar prices are way down. Wind is a conventional energy source. When you fly across country in the solar powered plane, you lt me know. Youll be on remote. There is 2. 17 again on the ten year. I didnt watch that last week. What happened to the 3 that we were supposed to be heading towards . Again headed back down. Theres the euro 124. 68. I havent looked at gold recently. It is above or below on 1200 . Should be below based on everything else. Here is 1172. Lets dive deeper into what is behind the plunging price of crude. The broader S P Energy Index is down 20 . And that puts it in bear market territory for the struggling sector. Here with us now, john kilda, he is a contributor here at cnbc. Weve been through all the other analysts, john. I mean we cant have them back on. Guys at 100 said that when the when oil dropped to 9 o, remember they said its going back up. No. They said, look, i know whats happening here. The markets are not looking at the things that i know to be true. The markets are misinterpreting what is happening. They say that with a straight face. They get so used to the idea that oil is going to stay high. Once again, the malthusian bet about peak oil . I came against it all the time. Every time someone bets against technology making thngs cheaper that we get out of ore or whatever, you always lose. We get technology and in this case it was fracking. I wasnt sure what it was going to be. I knew a cell phone is bigger than my head and came down to such small size and there was technology, something was going to get more oil out of the ground. We didnt get it all. It turned out to be the fracking. And Old Technology that got repurposed and got us to where we are. As far as the oil price though not going back up during the course of this year, we hit the Tipping Point about midyear where u. S. Gulf Coast Storage of oil was almost full. And nigeria as a country had upwards of 30 to 40 super tankers filled with oil with nowhere to go. So the writing was on the wall for a price break to occur because of the oversupply of oil that was clear to the marketplace. All right. Weve got, like i said, two different articles here. We have engineerijergen and new rather than demand is dominating the market. But then on page a2, china slowdown hits global markets. So it is a combination of supply and demand. Much more supply. It would be better for the Global Growth story and the u. S. , you know, that were going to hit 3 . Stock market isnt over. All those types of things. Its bad if were looking at a global slowdown. Thats not what you think is going. You think its supply . Its a minor factor. I am watching it. Copper did break 3 a pound. Its now down to 287. Thats a little worry. China is hanging in there. I think some of bad overnight numbers were part of that factory shutdown. They had to clean up the air ahead of the economic summit they held. Its much more about the surge and sfli upply of oil. Were producing oil now more than they kept records. Were right behind saudi arain why and behind the russians. So this is all about supply. Much more how long does it take before we hear that okay when it becomes not economically feasible to drill certain places because its expensive, how long does that take to exert its effect and to put a brake on the slide in prices . I think it is starting to happen a little bit. Youre hearing stories and some of the Companies Cutting back on capital expenditures. You heard i think earlier in the program that permits in the shale plays have calmed down a little bit already. We sharpened our pencil. Where is the number . Its as low as 40 a barrel here in the shale plays. Andrew, with me, i dont you know i dont like change. I remember when i was in high school filling up for 1. 10 a gallon. It went to 42 much i was like this cannot stand. So im still waiting for 20. It went to 10. Remember it went back down to 10. So ive been waiting for 40 for a long time. The break even is 40. Ive been surprised by that. I put out a piece on cnbc. Com that it would go to 50 but in the First Quarter of next year. Were already at 65. I think we can go down now and test that 40 level. Mid First Quarter next year, that will be the shoulder season demand before we get into the summer, thats with we really see the glut affecting things. Give me the view from the New York Times on the left. So we tax the hell out of this now and do infrastructure no that its so cheap . Is it a huge negative that were not going to migrate to cleaner forms of energy and stuck using this terrible stuff . Possibly. So it is a there are negatives to this . There are some negatives. Is it a net negative or net positive for the world that oil is much cheaper . You know what is interesting. Whatever you think the geo implication to all of this is. You could bankrupt some of the countries. That i dont know what happens when those things happen. So we have to wait for putin squirming. I always like to see putin squirming. Wait, are you going to tell me the answer on break . My grandmother in law over thanks giving says she owns shell. Shes only it for 20, 30 years. Hasnt sold it. Says should i sell it . I said, you know, i dont really know. Were not supposed to give advice in the family but since youre on the show and youre here, what are we supposed to do . You saw the big intergrateors get hit last week. Theyre going to continue to get hit. The only saving grace for shell and exxon is to the degree that refining margins are holding up beautifully. There is still sufficient demand for the diesel fuel they make. That is the only aspect of the portfolio that is going to do well. But all the stocks you think are going to go low . I do. I wouldnt touch them with a ten foot pole. So youre not saying we go back up to 9 o . No way. Im listening to what youre saying. You said take a while. Like its going back. We bounced off 63. 75 overnight. But this is undervalued . Oil is undervalued here . I think its still overvalued. But what is the inherent value of oil right now . Thats a good question, joe. See, people youre auditioning about whether you come back here. Were going to remember all these things. Thats okay. I was gone for a while. The other guys got their history. No, i think it will be grind lower. I thought we would bottom around 70 in the aftermath of the opec meeting. Here we are down to 63. 75. People said not 60, not 70. It cant go below. No, it can. It already did. But im going to stick with, i think the 50 is the area where you see real reaction by the shale producers. I also want to quote larry kudlow this is unam bbiguously good. Opec, i hope it breaks. You know, i would rub it all over myself. And the dominos could really fall about the geo politics from russia to venezuela. Can geo politics get any worse . They werent great at 100. Yes, they could. Does it seem things are going swimmingly over there for us at 100 oil. You tell me. What happened to some of the countries. I dont know. Were not going to have another war for 6 60 oil when w have one here. Does it undermine saudi arabia. They love us. Theyre huge friends. All 19 hijackers. Anyway, okay then. Nice to see you. Good to be back. Thanks so much. As markets continue to digest Lower Oil Prices, what are the possible ripple effects for investors . Joining us now for our monday morning strategy session is barbara rhineheart. She is chief Investment Officer for private banking. What is your take on this . What are we doing . Theres a couple things you can do. One thing that were talking to our clients about though is what are the beneficiaries of Lower Oil Prices . Because while energy certainly doesnt look like a buy at this point, the technicals are very weak. And one of them is india. One of them is south korea, another is thailand. A lot of the big oil importers, this is a very big wind fall for them. The second piece is its a big boom to consumers worldwide. Because Commodity Prices coming down mean that you pay less at the pump which puts more Discretionary Income in your wallet. Who is hurt besides the Traditional Oil producers . Well, of course, you know, some of the marginal producers and the noncore opec producers need very high prices in order to maintain their fiscal budget. And so, you know, libya, nigeria comes under a lot of pressure. Nigeria devalued the currency. They had to raise Interest Rates for the first time in five or six years. We think that probably theres an opportunity that the oil can decline, you know, still meaningfully from here. You have to put that in a potential scenario where it could go to 50 or 60. You say 50 or 60. You dont say 40 though . No. We think 50 or 60 is where we bottom out in the First Quarter next year in particular. Opec is in for a surprise. The iea says only 4 of shale needs 80 a barrel. In the balkin, there is a number that says its 42 is where, you know, things become unprofitable. You would ever, were talking about solar, would you ever go near a Solar Company . In this type of environment, you have to watch the technicals very closely. And the technicals look low. Do you Love Airlines . Are they the darlings of all darlings . Anything leveraged to the consumer sector, retailers, retail hers fantastic gains on friday. That was not by mistake. Chemical companies . Chemical companies are going to have a little bit more difficulty, of course. This is a supply issue. This is not necessarily its a supply issue and very weak demand. But what oil tells us is also some of the demand shots that you felt earlier this year in europe and japan. So most of the demand shocks are actually supply. Its behind you at this point. Its more of a supply issue. So you dont buy who wrote that article, joe . Which one . The demand article. Jergen. Daniel jergen. What is his argument . The argument is that the saudis were caught totally by surprise for the supply. They were not prepared for it and its not a demand issue as much as it is a supply issue. Which is a good thing. So hes saying its a supply ush u. Yes. Not a demand issue. Yes. The other article says its demand. I thought you were saying the opposite. Demand article. I read the quote here, andrew. The quote is new supply rather than demand is dominating the market and opec you didnt have to read the article. You just had to read the quote. Its like 11 records. Its a poll quote. Is that what it is called . A poll quote . You never heard that . No. Supply comes from a couple places. You also have supply coming from the noncore opec countries as well. Okay. Were going to live it there. I want you to pay atejs and work with me on this. Ill work with you. You work with me. No. You work with me. The reason i was not quoting seriously about saudi arabia there, i was channeling are you up to speed on homeland. Yes, i am. Remember when sal baren dnson. He was talking he was making that case, arguing with someone that was 9 11 was orchestrated, saying that saudis are our friends, and the guy saying says, really in 19 of the hijackers, so thats where i got. That im not trying to start a fight with the saudis. And the other thing i just want to ask you to listen and work with me. The other thing, did you see the cameo from the dead guy who is in your yes, but i would not say that to those who have not seen the show, yet. Its look a month after. But you know what . Thats their fault. But your guy then i wont say who it was. The guy that you cast in billions. Theyre my friends. Yes, did he. What is the drug they gave the character . Do you know . I do not know. Are you on top of homeland . I dont have time to watch. Next, ringing the register on the black friday weekend. The retail scorecard on who is winning big this Holiday Season and who is being left behind. And why it could be a bit easier to buy a box of Girl Scout Cookies this year. How the group is entering the modern age of shopping. Like the samoas. Those are my favorites. Financial noise financial noise financial noise cookie sales are about to go on line. They approve what is being called the digital cookie. Not that kind of cookie. Its a platform for scouts to sell and ship boxes of the treats. Boxes have been going for 4. Sales have been hitting around will 00 million a year. And we had the ceo on a couple times. I got some problems, weight problems after thanksgiving. They say pumpkin, key lime or apple . You said all. I said yes. Youre fat. I am fat. I am fat. I broke through some resistance. By next week, by the time were going to the Christmas Parties that we had to go through, ill be back to back in shape. We should tell you retailers are talleying results of black friday. Courtney reagan has more from ohio. Thats right. We are live from ohio. Were at fanatics. Its the largest retailer for the sports merchandise. Black friday sales were up 25 . That may end up being an outliar. Retail sales and traffic both falling below expectations. And below last year. They estimate that sales in store and online fell 11 over the black friday thanks giving weekend. Traffic down 5 . Now black friday still Reigns Supreme as the busiest day of the week with a dozen shoppers out onbly friday. Now many retailers both online and the traditional brickandmortar offered holiday promotions before thanksgiving. Many are offering them after. Also consumers know that deep discounts are not isolated to black friday weekend. So that could have been some of the reason for what we saw with sales in traffic. So what does it mean for cyber monday . Well, perhaps some consumers are holding up and going to be spending today. The National Retail federation does expect that 126 Million Consumers will shop today. That is down from 131 million that planned to shop last year. Here at fanatics, the Company Expects they will be the biggest sales day of the year. Andrew and joe, back to you. Okay. Court courtney, thanks. Here with with a pulse check on black friday weekend and cyber monday is the ceo of toys r us. Jerry, i tell you what gets me. Im trying to look at the bright side of everything. Oil prices and the consumer having more. But thn we heard the stores didnt do quite as well. But its because of online. Its a new world, isnt it . And first of all, let me tell you, i dont believe any way whatsoever that sales are down 11 . That is a bad outliar. Its done from consumer polling information of Consumer Expectations and Self Reporting of what they spent and what theyre planning to spend the rest much its totally an outlier and different from all different data sources. A double digit increase on line and a slight single digit decrease in the store. So its not quite as bad as that 11 . Having said that, its not as good as people like. The biggest trends are a shift from bricks and mortar to Online Retailing. A lot of that is in the online arms of the bricks and mortar retailing. So on line is growing double digits. Grew double digits over weekend. The study, if you want to believe that, said that online shrink over the weekend which is a ree dig lus pete of dat yachlt everyone said it. Fanatics just said that, right . Its growing everywhere online rapidly. That is the biggest overall consumer trend. The second dominant trend that we see every christmas, its not that christmas moved off and people are buying earlier, its christmas purchasing moved later in the season. And people are buying that last week before christmas. I expect a massive week in the week before christmas. We do a lot of analysis. It all comes out if the wash, doesnt it . I mean if people, by definition, if people havent spent it at the pump, arent they feeling a little bit better about being able to buy maybe a little more . Shouldnt he just assume thats going to happen . Great questions. There are negatives though. Food costs have risen. You have to eat before you can go shopping. Additionally if, you look at the data on unemployment and how much people are are earning, wages havent risen very much. I expect a decent Christmas Season but not spectacular one. Oil prices will have a tremendous effect. Its not just the price of gasoline. But oil is almost everything we buy. The transportation expenses and everything we buy. If plastics are made out of oil. Prices of many, many consumer items as well as transportation will decline to the future here. It will have a tremendous impact on the economy and Consumer Spending as a whole where it all happened the next three weeks before christmas, i dont know. Jerry, it is possible that consumers have just got hip to the game here . Decided that actually some of these prices arent really as low as they may ultimately become . You know, the margins that retailers are declining are Getting Better than ever. So you can see what something really should cost. They have not given up on going out. I think everyone that has been out there said the sam thing. It was mobbed. Thursday night it was mobbed. Friday it was mobbed. I was out at saks off fifth, the Outlet Center was mobbed. People are going out there and shopping. I saw a lot of people with smart phones checking prices as they were doing it. The deals are actually better than ever. So the brickandmortar guys, we no longer think about them necessarily being cannibalized. Its going to be additive because theyre the ones that have the online units now. Theyre winners and losers in this. Companies are very, very good on this paradigm. Theyre going to be winners. And the ones that really stand out are people like nordstrom, macys, best buy has done a great job. These companies are going to win because they have the ability to give the consumer whatever she wants and wherever she wants it. If she wants to go to the store and pick something up she can. She wants to order a mobile phone and have it delivered. What about retailers . Throw that line in there. I believe that retailers have harn ased the power of the omni channel will be able to is that it, jerry . Harness the omni channel paradigm. Can you throw that out in the street, sorkin . I say the all channel model. Theyre good at the internet. The ones good at the internet. I understand. You dont have to translate it. I know what youre saying. Its just when someone talks to me about it, do you mind if i use that . You dont mind, right . Please do. Thank you. Youre welcome. A lot of tributing. I came up with that. Anyway the internet is the big story. Does it have something to do with the cloud . Does it have something to do with that . The scaleability and the gran u lart of the cloud . It does, in fact. I have a slide i show clients. It shows stores all over the place. It says that is the new cloud is all the stores out there everywhere. Man, im ready. I have to get invited to something so i can use it. All right, jerry. Thank you. Youre welcome. When we come back, big winners at the Weekend Box Office. Plus, were going to join millions of americans and do a little Online Shopping on this cyber monday. A forecast from Research Firm tom score. That is coming up next as we thoed a break. Take a look at fridays s p 500, winners and losers. You dont need to think about the energy that makes our lives possible. Because we do. Were exxonmobil and powering the world responsibly is our job. Because boiling an egg. Isnt as simple as just boiling an egg. Life takes energy. Energy lives here. Dad,thank you mom for said this oftprotecting my future. You. Thank you for being my hero and my dad. Military families are uniquely thankful for many things, the legacy of usaa Auto Insurance could be one of them. If youre a current or former military member or their family, get an Auto Insurance quote and see why 92 of our members plan to stay for life. I heard that somewhere. Good morning. I saw a trailer. Theyre showing a trailer everywhere. Good morning, welcome back to squawk box. Becky is out sick. Check this out. The force is that what it was . The force awakens. Hes played this all the time. Star wars fans getting excited after the trailer of the newest lucas film was released. If youre among those that couldnt watch the sneak peek enough this takes the excite. To a new level. Youtube user remaking the teaser in lego. And great we played a lot of Star Wars Lego stuff over the years. And theyre fun. Theyre fun to go into the cafe or that crazy place where all the weird aliens are in lego. Not in the video game phase yet, are you . Im still watching this. I just saw the real trailer over the weekend for the movie coming out in a year from now. John dupont story . Very sad. Depressing movie. I saw hunger game. Because thats what kids like to see. I liked it okay. I liked it okay. I heard other people say there wasnt enough action. I liked it okay. I thought it was okay. Pretty good. Haunting watching philip see more hoffman. Anything he did he was great. But difficult. And then Robin Williams watching the previews. Going to be in the next, i dont know how another museum that can surprise people when it comes to life. But apparently it happens again for the third time. There is enough money for ben stiller and i think it can happen another six or seven times. Cyber monday under way across the United States. The Holiday Shopping season is off to a great start. There is lots of debate about that, actually. At least not online but what happened over the weekend. Here to take us inside the numbers is the chairman and cofounder of come score. Good morning, jan. Good morning. So what is your sense of what is going to happen here on what we call cyber monday . Well, cyber monday for the past four or five years has been the highest grossing online day and i would expect well see the same pattern today. So im looking for somewhere around 2. 5 billion or so in sales today. Do you have any hesitation that this weekend wasnt as hot as some retailers hoped for . Do you even believe numbers . Yeah, i think there is a big difference here between what is being reported for off line versus what is happening online. We saw a very strong thanksgiving. Thanksgiving was up 32 versus the prior year. Black friday was up 26 . So online is clearly very, very strong. The numbers for offline do seem to be kind of vary something what depending upon the source. The nrf reported that sales were down 11 for the four days from thank giving through sunday which does seem to be rather large drop. Shopper track was reporting a much lower drop but just about a point or so. It is more the latter down a point or so. Any big winners that would be surprises to us . Not the usual suspects. Amazon, ebay again look to be doing very, very well. But again, as you were referring to the omni channel retailers have really figured out the importance of on line. So were seeing Strong Performance there from the likes of walmart and target, best buy, so forth. Is there a loser that we should be focused on . Not that i have yet seen online. Best buy had some problems certainly with their site. But, you know, that was over relatively quickly. But, no, im not seeing yet any problems that i could point to for the online folks. Jan, since you track this stuff, one question we have oftentimes when we have ceos on, Retail Sector is how they can track in this whole omni channel game which is to say somebody comes into the store, they look around, they browse, if you will. Then they go online. Is there a way to actually figure out whether the browsing is helping the online or, frankly, whether theyre browsing online and then showing up in the store . Are you able to are we any closer to really being able to trace that and figure out what the customer is actually doing . Yeah, i think that there are definitely ways now that are emerging of doing that measurement. Theyre really important. There is no question that the opportunity to check prices, for example, online when the consumer is in the physical storm is really affecting the price at the end of paying eventually. My personal belief is that Pricing Power has moved to the consumer in a way that we have never seen before because of their ability to quickly find the lowest price. And make that perfect, whether thats in the store or online. I dont think there is any question its putting more pressure on retailer. I never walked around a store and seen somebody look at the price of something and then go to their phone. Is that actually happening . Oh, yeah. No question. Yeah. There is no question. Youll get within the smart phone owning population, youll get about 40 of them will say that they have done the showrooming activity. And if you ask them why they did it, price gets played back as the number one reason. So i dont think there is any question its happening. Okay. We have to leave it there. Happy holidays. Thank you very much. Well see how this monday turns out. Okay. Thank you. Coming up, clachl yoe smith kline expected to announce hundreds of job cuts in the United States. The details next. Plus, a big win for the latest hunger game movie. The Weekend Box Office is next. First though as we head to break, a quick check on what is happening in european markets right now. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. Look here, daddy, im never coming back. Discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection ats for around 329 a month. Welcome back. U. S. Equity futures at this hour continue to trade with some pretty significant red arrows and losses were down almost nine points on the s p 500, down 63 on the dow. The nasdaq is indicated down nine points or so. Making headlines, glaxosmithkline will reportedly announce hundreds of job cuts for u. S. Workers this week. The drug maker beginning a major cost saving program. Now to the Weekend Box Office. The hunger games mocking jay taking the top spot. Holding off a run by two animated films, penguins and big hero six. 230 million in the box office for wednesday through sunday. That is down significantly though from a record setting figure just a year ago. Thats when people flocked to theaters for films including the second hunger game installment. Did you hear that i got a big vat of butter popcorn. That is part of the problem. The pie, dressing, stuffing. You know that stuffing is what you call it if you put it in the turkey. Dressing dressing is on the outside. We talked about that with the butterball people. You were out. I was out. You did show you were stuffing the bird. Its a tradition. You dont stuff it like i stuffed it. It has to be loosely packed. You dont do it the night before. Things can grow and fester. You have to do it right before you put it n you no he that, right . We learned. We tweeted the butterball people. I even got the bucket and i asked her to fill it half way. Then i got the butter and then i took it back and they put more in. Then i walked back over again. And i bring salt to the seat with me. You brought extra salt . I did. Hold on. Because i run out. What do you sneen. I run out. Half way down, it doesnt taste salty enough. Coming up coming up i have problems. Coming up, its the new must have ingredient. Why protein is starting to pop up in soda. Crazy story. Is there meat in your soda . No. This is good, actually. That trend when squawk box come back. Welcome back to squawk box. Imagine a soda drink with pro te tien. These are ways that large Beverage Companies are trying to get healthier bottom lines to boost sales of soda drinks. Will it do the trick . Joining us is the directing manager. Good morning. What am i supposed to make only soda that has extra protein and milk that has extra protein . Is this completely unnatural . The consumer wants healthier products, healthier refreshment. Not every point in the day, obviously. Some people like to go to the movies and get a big tub of popcorn, i hear. But generally speaking the market place is moved into a healthier direction. I went with the wife and the kid. Everybody fits in. But it was a you were doused in salt. Not protein. Right. I was putting butter on. Its kind of protein, isnt it . I think popcorn is great. In terms of how theyre doing this, what are they actually doing to this milk were talking about. Breaking down the milk into five key components. And then theyre rebuilding the milk and upping the positives, the protein and calcium, and lowering what some would consider the negatives to sugar. In essence building a better mouse trap or building maybe building a better milk trap. So i think the biggest question is price. This is going to be expensive stuff. Double the cost. High premium. I will say this. We do know if you make a product theres demand for, there is a market. There is a superpremium market. This has been proven time and time again. And is this milk are people going to drink this milk straight . Is this the same milk youre putting in your cereal in the morning . I imagine you would use it like any regular milk. Its just its milk but a better for you version of milk because it has db theyve upped the protein portion and lowered the sugar. Whats to prevent a competitor from coming in and doing exactly what theyve just done . Probably nothing. In fact, theres some brands on the market today that directionally do that. But what you have here is a play by coke and their superb marketers and distributors. So my expectation is if they are get very aggressive and serious about it, so i think theyre in a position to build the awareness more quickly than other people. The thing you have to think about when it comes to milk is its kind of from a marketing standpoint, its a bit of the land thats been forgotten. Other than the Industry Trade association campaigns you dont have a lot of room. Coke is in there to make a lot of noise in a category that hasnt seen a noise. Whats the shelf life of that product . Coke is used to leaving stuff on the shelf for a long time. This is totally different. It is milk so it does have a limited shelf life. I understand it has a somewhat longer shelf life than traditional milk because of the recombination, the way theyve created the product. But it does have a limited shelf life. Its just like milk. At the end of the day, it is milk. In terms of the margin which is clearly what theyre going after, i assume the cost cant be cheap to do what theyre doing. Im sure theres significant startup costs and the manufacturing process is unique. So theres a lot of costs there. Im certain theyre going to invest in the brand from a marketing standpoint. So costs there. So its not going to be an inexpensive endeavor. But i think what cokes seeing is an extremely large category. Milk is the fifth largest beverage category in the u. S. Consumers drink on average almost 20 gallons per year of it. Its a 35 billion category at retail. Its quite large. So i think they see the opportunity there. And if they do it right, i think they have a great chance to be very successful. Were going to leave it there. We didnt get into what pepsi is doing. They may be adding protein to other things like gatorade. Well see where that all goes. Appreciate it. Thanks so much. Thank you. Coming up, could opec bankrupt Oil Companies . Well get a live record from the bakken when squawk box comes right back. Daughter do you and mom still have money with that broker . Dad yeah, 20 something years now. Thinking about what you want to do with your money . Daughter looking at options. What do you guys pay in fees . Dad i dont know exactly. Daughter if youre not happy do they have to pay you back . Dad it doesnt really work that way. Daughter you sure . Vo are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed . Wealth management at charles schwab. This guy could take down your entire company. H . Stay with me. On thursday a hamster video goes online. On friday it goes viral a network choking phenomenon. Why do you care . Hes on the same cloud as your business. The more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. Do you want to share your cloud with a hamster . Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. Im just looking over the company bills. Up . Is that what we pay for internet . Yup. Dsl is about 90 bucks a month. Thats funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. Wow thats fast. Personally, i prefer a slow internet. There is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. Dont listen to the naysayer. Switch to comcast Business Today and get 50 megabits per second for 89. 95. Comcast business. Built for business. The price of oil falling further. What you need to know about the effect of gas, airlines, and shippers. Its cyber monday. Were going to unveil three Online Retailers poised for a big sales boost. Its monday, december 1st. And the second hour of squawk box begins right now. Welcome back to squawk box on cnbc. Im Andrew Sorkin along with joe kernen. The reboot of the musical is one of at least five films from Sony Pictures that has been leaked online. The leak follows a hacking attack earlier this week. And the brad pitt war movie fury was another of the leaked films. This according to one piracy tracking firm. That movie has now been downl d downloaded nearly 900,000 times since last thursday. It is all over hollywood this morning. Brad pitts got the same hair cut he had in the basterd thing. Remember that one . Dirty old basterd or whatever it was. Incorrigible basterds. Something. Inglorious. Its like the same guy. Thats his war look. His war look. Among our top whats your look today . My look . I got my hair cut last week. Among our top stories at this hour, it is cyber monday. Big targeted day for Online Shopping. But retailers at this point arent celebrating their numbers from last friday. The Retail Federation reports on average shoppers spent about 6 less than earlier. Total sales fell about 11 . Although we have people saying these numbers arent going to hold up. The main reasons are early promotions and online sales. It is jobs week because its the first week of december, i think, isnt it . December 1st, i think it is. Well get the november employment report on friday. Expected to rise in nonfarm payrolls of 228,000. And notable fed speak to watch for today. Fed vice chair will speak at the council on foreign relations. Then new york fed president William Dudley is also speaking this afternoon. And our own Steve Leisman has an exclusive interview with dudley today at 1 30 p. M. Wonder if theyll say anything about washingtons efforts to end i think the independence of the fed. Have you been watching all these stories . I was going to ask whether youre going to bring up leismans appearance at the grateful dead club. He did a concert over the weekend. I was on a totally different train of thinking, i was. Yours is much more important. Seeing as how the fed has been so independent up to this point in terms of not being influenced by anyone. So theyre going to end the independence of the fed. Theres going to be more auditing and transparency. Lets talk about the other big story of the morning. It is oil prices. The slide in crude after opec held off of production cuts last week. It could have a big impact on drilling in the bakken. Thats where we find our Brian Sullivan. Good morning. The reality is that people here are not panicking yet. Theyre saying that wells that are in the ground that are currently operating should be okay. Theyll agree that there likely is going to be a reduction in new activity. Over the weekend i spoke with a bunch of analysts about the situation. According to mike kelly, about 11 of the 17 different production zones remember the bakken is not just one thing. Theres little subzones. 11 of those 17 right now are mostly uneconomic. In other words, money losers. Says listen, the bakken is not dead. There is going to be a slowdown in activity. But there will still be growth. The reality is this. Depending on whose numbers you believe, guys, the breakeven price here is somewhere between 68 and 73. Everybodys got a different number. But thats about the range. About no new well is going to go in when its going to be a loser. The concern here, guys, is if we see Oil Prices Stay at this level, a couple weeks here everybody i talked to had dinner without a bunch of locals. They said well find it. Its just brief. But if it stays at this level, youll see Companies Making significant cutbacks. Or this is the other concern. Pushing down margins and wages. If im a pipeline operator, i need a break. Im going to dut your pay and the truck driver salaries because theyre trying to cut down the margins. Thats the concern here. The locals saying weve been through this before. Were going to be okay, but the reality is a lot of wells right now are going to be money losers all throughout the day. Im going to bring you the companies with the most debt, the companies most concerned about those who have the lowest cost of production. Its going to be an interesting day here where its a balmy negative 15 degrees right now. Wow. How long are you going to be there . Well, i got in yesterday and i leave tonight. Oh, youre leaving tonight. Yeah. Street signs, we had a dinner last night with locals and all different kinds of businesses. Just real folks. How is your business doing, are you worried about a slowdown. Theyre all booming right now, guys. But theres sort of overarching fear of how long are prices going to stay at this level . It can handle a short burst. I wanted you to stay a little longer and get the full experience. Because its almost like the gold rush there, isnt it . I mean, lots of great jobs. So you got a lot of, like, guys working long weeks and then they want to go out and maybe there isnt the entertainment there would be in a new york or a las vegas or something. So those little sights spring up. I wanted you to get the whole experience of what its like there. Did you do that . We had a nice dinner last night with some locals. I will say this. This is an unusual place to come for a couple of reasons. You fly in, theres gas flares everywhere. Number two, the plane is all dudes of my size everyone just squeezed in together. Number three, last time i was here, theyre building so quickly the hotel i was in was on a dirt road. The hotel is brand new. But they had to get the hotel up before the government could finish the road because people just build, build, build. I talked to a guy last night. 4,000 square foot house. Its a big house, right . 4,000 square foot house. Pays 5500 a month in rent. And he said its a cheaply built home. Thats Westchester County stuff right there. It is. It really is. Like 1 unemployment or something. Its exciting, but its booming. Which is fun. I cant imagine that plane with all guys your size. Thats awful in coach. Well check in with you later. Joining us to break down the crude collapse, kurt hallet. You told me it is pronounced. I remembered that for you. Appreciate that. How are you . Im good at that. So where do you come in on all this in terms of it demand . Is it supply . How much of it is positive for all of us . Is it 80 positive or do we need to worry about our own domestic firms being hurt . I think the critical point here is this is a supply shock. Its the first supply shock that opec has had since 1997 when they were dealing with venezuela. Since the mid 1980s. And that ended pretty roughly for the entire oil patch. This is a cyclical business. I would expect at some point that production will come here in the u. S. But i do think in a near term, its going to cause more pain than good. What we really need to know is what the average price is going to be for the next five years for a barrel of oil. When you figure that out, you can let me know. Be closer to 60 or closer to 120 . Its definitely going to be somewhere i would say in the 80 to 100 range. One thats an analyst has that programmed into their brain. That oil has an inherent value of 90 a barrel. I dont you know, i dont know. I dont know what it is. I dont know if you want to call it inherent. We do look at the supply and demand dynamics. Obviously the production here in the u. S. Is going to be variable, right . This should have never happened without a global recession. 65. Nobody in your business. No analyst, nobody that follows it predicted this. They knew all about shale. They knew what was happening. Nobody saw this coming. Now i wonder whether its worth paying attention to. You know, joe, what we tend to track over time is we look at the excess capacity out of opec and we kind of compare that to the Global Demand dynamic. Right now the numbers are creeping up, but theyre still creeping up from a relatively low number. Were going to continue to focus on the supply fundamentals out of the u. S. I think as the prior reporting was indicating that the economics in the bakken are now hitting those critical thresholds. Youre likely to see production fall. That may not happen toward the tail end of 2015 if Oil Prices Remain in the 60 range. Maybe even hit 50. Who knows, right . They could go to that level. And the bottom line is theyre probably not going to stay there for very long. I dont know. I dont know. I dont know. You know, i dont know. You tell me. If were going right back to 80. Well see. Thats why i ask you for five years. Most people in the business just have it in their head its worth 100 a barrel. Yeah. I remember back in 1998 the major Oil Companies had in their minds oil was going to be 25. I know. But now it swung the other way and were stuck with that. Can you at least grant me one thing . Can we move out peak oil a company of years . It was supposed to happen in 2010. Can we move that out a little bit to like 2800 or so . I think there were varying dates published around that. I was not a personal believer there. Its about 60 of the oil that still remains in the ground. Obviously if peak oil were in place, we wouldnt be finding it off shore. Anybody that took that side of things doesnt know anything about history. Anyway, thanks. Thank you. Appreciate it. Quick programming note. This wednesday were going to talk exclusively to exxonmobil chairman Rex Tillerson. He will be joining us at the business round table what . Meeting in washington. What . Going to washington. Really . Says who . You just got your ticket. No, i know. Im pretending that you didnt know. No. We are going. Well be there. Itll be great. Its just d. C. Maybe ill like d. C. More now after the election. Maybe itll be a little more pal palatable. More than the bakken shale. Government has been more of a growth industry than even oil and energy for the last couple of years. Sony pictures the victim of a hacking attack. Little orphan annie may be suffering. And then well reveal the three companies we think will be cyber mondays big winners. Were back in a moment. Financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise im just looking over the company bills. Up . Is that what we pay for internet . Yup. Dsl is about 90 bucks a month. Thats funny, for that price with comcast business, i think you get like 50 megabits. Wow thats fast. Personally, i prefer a slow internet. There is something about the sweet meditative glow of a loading website. Dont listen to the naysayer. Switch to comcast Business Today and get 50 megabits per second for 89. 95. Comcast business. Built for business. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Take a look how the market is going to set itself up on this cyber monday. Coming back a little bit. Dow jones looking like it will open off about 35 points. Nasdaq down four points. And the s p 500 opening down about six points. Thats good. Cut its losses in half so far. Its a hard knock life for Sony Pictures. A hacking attack may be taking a toll at the box office. Julia boorstin joins us with more. Its serious. You know, we are in the family that deals with Universal Studios and everything. I think if someones going to hack us, a foreign country, they could do worse than steal a couple of our movies that werent much top shelf anyway . These are all five sony films. All right. Sony. And four of these films havent yet been released. Thats what makes this particularly serious. Sources tell me the fbi is now involved. The copyrighted films came up in the wake of a hack attack on a studio that crippled its systems. Theres questions whether kim jongun is part of the attack because sony is part of the movie about the leader. The movie is scheduled for Christmas Day. He called it an act of terror and promised merciless retaliation against the United States if it were released. Among the other movies on the piracy sites is the reboot of annie. But by far the most pirated movie appears to be sonys f y fury stars brad pitt. One report says it was downloaded nearly 900,0900,000 in three days. It is a criminal matter and we are working closely with Law Enforcement to address it, sony says. The hack has taken its toll on the studio. Its just now getting back up and running. Okay. So we didnt produce any. All right. Yeah nap is a problem. Thats for sure. I saw the previewpreviews, juli the seth rogan film. It struck me as a little odd. You know . This guys still in power and the entire movie theres someone cast to play him. And seth rogan and the other guy the green goblin from spiderman, theyre going over there to assassinate him. Its clearly satire though. I know. But if you were the guy itd be like theyre making movies the whole premise of the film is that theyre assassinating me. I dont know. You wouldnt do it unless it was a true member of the axis of evil. We wouldnt do it for putin or Something Like that. Well, i have to say, joe, it seems like sony is pretty confident that this is satire. And there have been a lot of movies made that are spoofing real life people. So i dont know. It doesnt seem like its worth hacking an entire company about it. We dont know whether thats actually the case either. Those are allegations. Theyre looking into it. Well have to see. Hes got some crazy ideas. Anyway, julia. Thank you. See you later. Back to retail now. It is cyber monday and our next guest thinks three companies will dominate today. Amazon, ebay, and walmart. Joining us to break down the weekend, dana telsey. Great to see you again. Dana nice to see you. Are you surprised at the National Retail federation numbers that traffic over the weekend down 7 . Given where we were on friday, it seemed like things felt a lot better. I agree. I think it definitely is a number thats a little bit different than all the other numbers weve been seeing. Keep in mind that the National Retail federation is a consumer survey. Its based on just over 4,600 people. What youve been seeing from shopper track and others from retailers i think has a o wider gauge. So overall the season is still just beginning. And last year after black friday weekend, the black friday sales are up 1 by some of the surveys the end of the survey just up over 3 . Theres a long way to go. Any surprises over the weekend in terms of winners and losers . I think some of the winners out there was everyone from macys to limited to michael kors. Footwear was actually a little bit better than we were expecting. Was less promotional than we had thought. Uggs and everything from athletic including the foot lockers of the world and also nikes. I thought certainly womens apparel. And what we saw overall, thursday is definitely pulling sales from the rest of the weekend. The beginning of november is the start of black friday weekend. And thats pulling forward sales. We go into a lull period now. And december 15th through 25th is when it all comes back. And online is growing in importance. You dont see the footsteps online, but you hear about the traffic especially at mobile. Surprise loser . I think a surprise loser, were seeing the teen retailers struggle. Thats been the weakness. Pulling us forward to today. What are we supposed to expect . I know you have three big winners. Those are the obvious winners. They always win. Is there somebody were not thinking about . Im getting emails left and right with everyones cyber monday sales. They all seem to be on at least 25 off. Certainly macys could be a big winner here. Weve seen gap also even though theyre having issues with the gap brand product. Theyve been competitive that way. I think what weve seen also from some of the discount retailers like the walmarts and the targets, theyre going to be positioned for this. News you can use. If youre home today or at the office thinking about shopping online, are the prices online today better than what you can get on store or online any time rest of the month. Do we know statistically how thats going to look . I think today is better than what you can get, perhaps, over the next week and a half. As you go out toward september 15th through the 25th. Youre going to get a crack at these again. Thanks so much. Appreciate it. We should also tell you we have a programming note. Wednesday well talk to walmarts ceo doug mcmillon. Thats coming live from this business round table. Coming up, Peanut Butter, Peanut Butter patties, samoas they could be a click away. Plus well tell you which companies will reap the benefits and maybe you should buy when we return. Thin mints are going digital. Girl scouts of america being able to buy online. Set up cookie track sales and set a goal. A mobile app could be available in some areas. Credit card processing and shipping. It does seem like its less personal where the little girl went doortodoor. At the supermarket you know they set up a little table outside and do it. I dont know. It seems youre actually learning how to interact and sell and everything. But you had to do it to compete. Up next, not exactly the best black friday for bestbuy. Com. A massive outage shutting the site down for a chunk of the day. Will there be more cyber troubles on this cyber monday . As we head to break, look at equity futures. E financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise two weeks later. Look, credit karma are you talking to websites again . This website says free credit scores. Oh, credit karma yeah its actually free. Look, you dont have to put in your credit card information. Whew credit karma. Really free credit scores. Starts at 6 30 a. M. On the vo rush hounose. Und here but for me, it starts with the opening bell. And the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. announcer at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. Thats why weve built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. Because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Among the stories that are front and center, moodys downgrading japans sovereign debt one notch. Single a. The countrys inability to hit its goal based on that. Chinas Manufacturing Industry continues to slump. This could mean more policy easing is needed. Then in switzerland, voters rejecting proposals to boost gold reserves and impose strict curves on immigration. And check this out. Food giant nestle unveiling a humanoid robot today that will help sell at Stores Across japan. The robot says its name and telling customers its looking forward to work with them. They ordered 20 of these robots and will includes trease the nu a thousand by the end of the year. So bizarre i cant even present it without comment. Turning to online and cyber monday now. Will amazon take the cake or will there be surprise winners . On set with us is victor anthony. So weve heard over and over again sort of the natural winners, amazon is going to be a winner. Ebay is going to be a winner. We heard macys is going to be a winner. All right. The data thus far tell us a surprise. Whos going to be winning that we dont know about . I think youre going to look at other small retailers like zulily. I think theyre poised to have a good day. Amazon will be the natural position to run away with the Online Retail sales this Holiday Season. Where do your put their stock in this . Amazon is traditionally if you look back over the past five, six years, typically moved up with exception of i think one year in 2011. Between november and december. So its a seasonal trade. Huge price cuts on amazon today . Huge price cuts. My point, i think cyber monday will diminish in significance over time over the next several years. What youre seeing is mostly sales have been pulled forward in a whole week ahead. Thats probably why you saw the black friday number was down. Do you buy that number . Do you buy the National Federation number that says sales over the weekend was down 11 or do you look at what the companies are saying and saying actually those numbers are wrong. The numbers are actually much better this year . Well, i dont have i follow ecommerce companies. I did look at those numbers. I do point to the fact that probably mobility is helping people stay away from traditional retail stores. There was also a boycott that happened several days ahead of black friday on twitter and on facebook. Im not sure if that played a role. There was a boycott . Yeah. I think over the ferguson riots. Everyone was suggesting that you stay away from stores on black friday. Out of respect for the ferguson verdict. And so in terms of maher gins, how much money do you think amazon ends up making or losing on a day like today . Well, i think they would like to break even. What you normally get is the flow through sales as they get more customers coming up to the site today. Those customers are more than likely to come back at least as we move through the Holiday Shopping season. So its a win win situation for them. And walmart . Walmart, they are getting a little bit more aggressive. Every year theyre getting more aggressive. I think theyve dropped the ball over the past probably ten years. They watched amazon essentially run away with Online Retail sales. They were in the prime position to at least catch a significant sale of online sales. They havent really done that. But i think theres an opportunity for them in the future. Is alibaba play in any of this . You cover them now. I do. Do they play in any of this . I know they have their own singles day which is like cyber monday. But are americans or anybody going to alibaba on a day like today . Are there deals to be had . Not that ive seen. What ive seen over the plast three years, the christmas Holiday Season, they dont celebrate christmas in china but thats moving up the last couple of years. I think the heavily discounted days will ultimately make its way to china over the next few years. Okay. J joe, are you buying anything online . I contract out the gift shopping. Okay. I got one person i need to shop for. And i know what i like so its pretty easy. Anthony, thank you. Thank you. Appreciate it. Up next, the good thats definitely a joke. The good, bad, and ugly side of plunging crude prices. The rails getting rocked by the plunge price. But the airlines are working overtime. The airlines are taking off. How long will this trend continue . A top analyst joins us after the break. Squawk box will be right back. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Take a look at futures right now. See how the market is setting itself up. It was down. Then it got better. Now its down even worse than before. Dow jones looks like it would open off 50 points. Nasdaq off eight points, s p 500 as well. Also watch shares of groupon. The rise of Online Shopping means more for shippers. Morgan brennan joins us. You were out somewhere last week and now youre back in studio. Where were you . Ive been all over the place. I tell you im about to go back out starting tomorrow as well. Where you going tomorrow . Actually tomorrow im going to be in berkeley, california. The next day d. C. And then wisconsin. Get your frequent flier stuff together. Im racking it up. No kidding. All right, but anyway, back here in the studio taking a look at the shippers given the surge seen in online sales, theyre bracing for another peak season. So this Holiday Season the nrf expects online sales to grow as much as 11 with more than half of consumers doing at least some of their shopping digitally. While cyber monday is still big, many people are waiting longer to make purchases. Thats really important. According to ship matrix, the week of cyber monday has been slowing. You see that here. Its expected to continue this weekend. Thats why shippers expect their busiest days to come later in the month. Take u. P. S. Just three days before christmas theyre expecting their busiest day. When it comes to fedex, theyre expecting december 15th which is almost two weeks later than their forecasted date last year. U. P. S. And fedex have been pouring hundreds of millions of dollars into updating networks and hiring workers. And the Postal Service a already making sunday deliveries. The question now as the Holiday Season kicks off, will this be enough. Bad weather could always change that and ship matrix says shippers seem to be better prepared for heavier volumes. Thats based on this data here. Thats ontomb delivery rates. Those have improved for the week of thanksgiving. So with Lower Oil Prices both u. P. S. And fedex shares have been climbing. Weve seen them both reach fresh highs just recently. But to see that trend continue, its going to come down to whether these shippers can deliver on time of this year. So that kund of doesnt allow them to increase their Profit Margins. They ought to be doing really well right no up. Their Profit Margins should be growing right now. But that do that surcharge, so its a double edged sword. They dont get the benefit when it comes down. This is true for u. P. S. Because it has a large airplane fleet. Shortterm they can see a bounce in their profit because of those higher fuel surcharges versus where they are right now. Longer term youre going to see that even out as the surcharges level out. They take their time taking the surcharges off. Right . I would think so. Anyway, morgan, thank you. Safe travels. Speaking of her traveling all over the place, transport now. Crude down 19 since the middle of october. And while the transports are up more than 16 at a record high since then. Here to break down the transport boom is the Senior Research analyst at avondale partners. Its weird because its like, thing gos in and things come out. Like with the rails. They move energy, but they also run on energy. Which whats a more powerful effect for the results . Well, as you point out theyre both factors and to clear up your earlier point, the fuel surcharge for the parcel carriers are reset every month. Sure. So theres a lag at the beginning of the month. They take their time. They squeeze every last day out of it. They get squeezed every day on the up as well. And to every life a little rain must fall nap said, to answer your first question spefbingly with rails i think the real thing you have to understand here is they do burn fuel. They burn the largest single consumer of diesel fuel in north america is Union Pacific. That said, whats happened in the industry is this. I like to call it my big splash theory. Somebody we had a low growth, no growth economy, a placid lake if you will. And somebody starting back in 2009, 2010 through a rock called fracking in it. The waves out of that have continued further and if uyou look at industrial america, we have hydrocrackers right now. Industrial america, this is the first industrialled recovery since 1961. And thats whats driving the overall activity on the rails not as much the fracking itself. But the Cheaper Energy is spawning the industrial resurgence. So its still tied back to that. You know, you got to connect a couple of dots. Absolutely. Everything youre saying to me, the hair on my neck is standing up im so excited about it. How is this not great . It is great. Its phenomenal. Not only the waves of that big splsh have not only extended out to the consumer and the consumer pays less to heat their house, they pay less when they fill up at the tank. But those waves have extended to asia, europe. Theyre paying less for fuel because were supplying so much of our own fuel and demanding far less from other ports of export. So were worried andrews worried hes always worried. He is. But putin, hes getting squeezed. The saudis are going to get squeezed. Venezuela. Can we get more unstable in the middle east. I cry a river for putin and then venezuelans every day. I dont care and i dont think Many Americans do either. I wouldnt want to be a holder of rubles right now, but to hold American Assets whether it be railroads or air freight carriers, im a big bull. Also to clear up a point the Service Problems last year were u. P. S. Centric issue much more than fedex. U. P. S. Was the one that had the issues. I like americanbased companies doing business here at the epicenter of this big splash. For awhile people have been saying just watch this play out. Watch this industrial resurgence in the u. S. Play out. And that people say where is the growth going to come from . Technology cant lead us forward. Service industries cant lead us forward into the 2020s and 2030s. What are we going to do . Its going to be energy. And no one really believed it. And now in the last two promont now were starting to see it happen. We are. And the problem is, you think about it. None of us are really old enough to remember what an industrial led recovery looks like. I wasnt looking at markets or studying economics in 1961. I doubt most of your listeners were either. So were all looking for a giraffe and instead theres a big elephant in the middle of the room and its because were trained classically to look for a consumerled recovery, serviceled recovery. This is an industrialled recovery. Awesome. So youre just buying across the board. You buy everything in the transports . No. I have long been a believer that these are companies that are very operationally intense. These are not companies in which id like to say any jockey can ride the horse. I like the better management thats better invested in infrastructures. Its not an accident that fedex did not have Service Problems last year and u. P. S. Did. Its not as if the rain clouds follow the u. P. S. Trucks and ignore the fedex trucks. Its not an accident whats happening at Union Pacific and that theyve been able to keep up their train speeds better than the rest of the industry. Its not an accident whats happening in norfolk southern. There are better management teams with better investment structures and results show in the financials. So your top three. Top three will be fedex in the air straight space. Then the top three in the rail space would be the norfolk southern, Union Pacific, and the canadian pacific. All right. Thank you. Always a pleasure. Next time were going to play some patriotic music underneath that. Im serious. Its a great story. It is. Thank you. Coming up, a look at prices as the Holiday Shopping season comes up. How much will five golden rings cost you this year . Weve got the price index next. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac my baby drove up in a brand new cadillac look here, daddy, im never coming back discover the new spirit of cadillac and the best offers of the season. Lease this 2015 standard collection cts for around 439 a month. I wish. Please, please, please, please, please. [ male announcer ] the wish we wish above all. Is health. So we quit selling cigarettes in our cvs pharmacies. Expanded minuteclinic, for walkin medical care. And created programs that encourage people to take their medications regularly. Introducing cvs health. A new purpose. A new promise. To help all those wishes come true. Cvs health. Because health is everything. American authorities have lost a motion to have an internet entrepreneur thrown in jail. They want kim. Com to be thrown into prison. He founded a site called megaupload. And a court in new zealand rejected he was a flight risk. The judge also said that dotcom had not broken conditions after he was taken into custody in 2012. And dotcom is accused of massive Copyright Infringement with the mega upload site. The site accounted for about 4 of all internet traffic. And he wanted to be called metta world peace, but that was taken. So he went with dotcom. Not too bad of a choice. Ochocinco was taken. Right . For the past 31 years, pnc has put together its price index which is a look at the economy based on the gifts in the holiday classic the 12 days of christmas. They also calculate the true cost of christmas. Lets get to chief Investment Officer of pnc Wealth Management which has 130 billion in assets under management. Weve been talking oil, oil, oil. As it ripples through the economy, i wonder if there will be a year where you can do all these things and it actually goes down in price. It was only up a little this year, right . Good morning and happy holidays. Yes, the true cost of christmas and the 12 days of christmas was only up 1 this year. Up less than 300. So it would cost you 27,673. And there was one year back in the 90s, i believe 1995, when the index did go down. Might happen again. That was a good year for the market too. Now, what happened with these swans . That was the only thing that went up . The geese this year, joe, was the only item that went up. The item that went up the most in the index. Up 71 . Swans stayed the same. And eight items remained unchanged. And i cant remember. What were the how do you what are the swans or how do you find out what that costs . What are those . We go to different outlets for all the prices. Swans come from the pittsburgh aviary, geese from the hatchery, calling birds from a pet store. So different ones you exclude to mimic me cpi, you exclude the swans from the core. For the core cpi which the swans over the 31 years has been the most volatile, so for the core christmas price, its up 4 . The nine ladies dancing, this is not what youre thinking. No . What is that . This is like reputable like ballet type stuff, right . Its not down at you know, with dollar girls. Absolutely. Only way we would do that. Whys that . You might spice it up a little. Wed like to keep tradition going. We use this in our website pnc christmas price index. Com which is an interactive site to learn about economic trends. You got to keep it clean. In all seriousness, we have some people that worried so much about the feds extraordinary measures and Central Banks around the world that theyre sure that theres nascent inflation somewhere. And they said you cant take out food and energy. Thats ridiculous because people still pay those. Theres others that say you see whats happening in europe and in china, japan, wherever. And really prices should be static or even going down with the price of oil going down. Where are we how far out is where should inflationary expectations be right now . Well, i think thats it is the surprise in this economic recovery that inflation has been a no show. Youre probably well into 2016 before we start to see some inflationary pressures. Likely we get to mid2015 when we start to see pressures. Absent in that has been the wage pressure component. So as that continues and we do think job Growth Continues here, well see some wage pressures in there. And then inflation probably on the horizon in 2006. I dont understand the gold rings. They should be way down. Theyre flat. And i dont understand the geese up 71 . I dont know. Thats screwy. I think from the gold rings, weve seen the commodity price drop about 25 from its high, but retailers with demand there are able to keep prices stable, not increase them, but havent seen the need to decrease them in this environment. Okay. All right. Thanks. Appreciate it. Well do it again. Thanks, joe. Happy holidays. See ya. Coming up when we return, new data out this morning on auto loans. Find out how your car payment compares to the Rising National average. Plus falling oil prices. What it means for the price of gas youre going to pay at the pump and Americas Energy sector. That when we return. New zealand,wool expm textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u. S. . At t. Rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. Its just one reason over 70 of our mutual funds beat their 10year lipper average. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. In a we believe outshining the competition tomorrow requires challenging your Business Inside and out today. At cognizant, we help forwardlooking Companies Run better and run different to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. So if youre ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say lets get to work. Because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. Oil shock. Can producers survive a showdown with opec . Hitting the clicks or hitting the bricks . The latest black friday weekend stats are coming in weaker than expected. And a fury at Sony Pictures. The movie along with several unreleased films are leaked online. Whos behind the latest act of piracy . Squawk box begins right now. Welcome back to squawk box here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. Im joe kernen. If youre just Getting Started on your day. We have an oil shock update for you. The price of crude tumbling again. 65. 93 is where its currently trading. Trickle effects being felt globally. Were down 55 points on the dow jones as far as the futures. We were down 65 for the implied open. Down eight and a half for the s p and down 11 now for the nasd nasdaq. Well have much more on the crude economics of the oil sell off. First, though, andrew has some of todays other top stories. Okay. Lets talk about it. The Dust Settling from the nations black friday shopping spree. On average shoppers spent about 6 less than they did this weekend than a year earlier. Total sales falling about 11 . The main reason early promotions and online sales, today dubbed cyber monday traditionally the biggest weapon shopping day of the year. There are some out there saying those numbers are wrong and actually this past weekend was better. So Congress Also returning from its holiday recess today. Legislators have less than two weeks to figure out how to keep the government running. Funds set to expire on december 11th. It comes as they also debate immigration. And a Supreme Court will hear arguments in a facebook threat case. The free speech rights of people who use threatening or violent language ofr social media. The case involves a man who was sentenced for posted graphically violent rap lyrics. He says he didnt mean to threaten anyone. Back to the crude exports to asia coming to a stand still. Meantime reuters is reporting that permits for new wells dropped 15 across the shale formations last month. This comes as Oil Prices Continue to fall after opecs decision to leave output unchanges. Michelle carusocabrera has the economics about getting oil out of the ground. Hey, joe. You will understand the saudis motivation completely with this map. Its cheap to get it out of the ground. Some are expensive. What does it cost in the United States . Alaska less than 40 a barrel. Up to the oil sands, its a range of 50 to 100. And 40 to 80 the bakken shale. Its a range because some wells are easier to get to the oil opposed to others. So theres a lot of difference. Were going to drill down an oil well specific stuff in a second. But first let me show you how those numbers compare to saudi arabia. Less than 10 per barrel is the break even price for saudi arabia. Even thoi theyre paying by the decline, they can handle a lot more downside for the price. And at the same time they know that were going to see a dropoff in production as a result of the decline in the price. So lets do some specifics. By the way, these numbers come from an Energy Consulting firm in texas. If you go to specific wells, numbers at eagle ford. Say you invest 8 million in a well and it produces 400 billion dollars per day. You need a break even price of 70 bucks. But if that same well you invested 8 million in produces 500 barrels per day, you can tolerate a price of 55. 7 million well producing 400 barrels a day has a break even price of 60 per barrel. What do they need in order to have a balanced budget around the world . Saudi arabia needs 93 per barrel. Russia 102. Venezuela 121. Nigeria 118. You can see saudi arabia can tolerate a lot more. Look at the ruble today. Above 50 for the first time ever. This chart goes back to 1998. Went all the way to 54 this morning. What youre seeing at the bottom is the dollar. So the dollar is getting stronger and strong eer against the ruble. A guy earlier said cry me a river. I couldnt agree more. About russia . All of them. Exactly. Kills me. Really. Smallest violin in the world. Yeah. But production does slow down in the United States at these prices. Not only that, but ive seen it on certain websites about keystone how its not only irrelevant at this point but if you say its 50 to 100 up there for the tar sands, theres a price where its not economically feasible to even build the stupid thick thing. Right. Exactly. Production doesnt stop. Production growth goes to zero though. You just dont invest in more wells until you start to see the price increase. I think we should still build it because i think thered be a lot of jobs and i think sooner or later right now this is a shortterm issue. Right now were producing 90 Million Barrels per day. It could give the left ammo for why are we talking about this . Why are we talking about sew lor or Nuclear Energy . Thats the other motivation for the saudis. It kills many other alternatives. Do you think the saudis are sitzing there saying its fantastic . No. I think this prevents alternatives from coming to the foreground glp did you see this . Who owns this now . Caulk cast . Yeah. I can do this then. Wind power. That was a ge favorite. Did you see the subsidies that are still yep. 7. 3 billion over the past several years that taxpayers have spent for wind. And were still extending these. And theres an article in the journal. The president of americans for prosperity, that seems like a no brainer. To get rid of it . No. To be an organization like americans for prosperity. Who is against it . Well, never mind. But there are some people against prosperity. Quite a few of them, we wont name any names. But i was thinking about that. The wind power, does that make sense at this point . No. What about the eagles . Not the philadelphia eagles. What about the poor eagles that are running into these things too. I see what youre saying. Ip totally missed that. It kills nuclear too. All of these things when the price of oil comes down. Lets bring in kevin book to the conversation. You can stick around and be part of it. All right. Clear view Energy Partners managing director. So first, what do you think the price where does the price shake out over the next six months . If six months is even the right time. 18 months . How do you look at it . Lets talk about what could be happening here. If the saudis are really going to war on price, thats a sustained campaign. If theyre still just in learning mode and trying to figure out whether the u. S. Does function as a capacity that it rolls off quickly, rolls on quickly, does what the saudis do with their oil, then that might be a three to six month learning process. Well probably see a response from north america within about six months. You look at the historical risk between price and count, that would imply. Its not clear whach one is happening. If its he first one thb prices will be lower for longer for sure. But take it out five years. What would the average price be over the next five years . I dont think anyone knows. But the futures market is looking towards 90 a barrel. If you think about what oil prices should be, they should be two and a half to three and a half time of developing cost. A 25 finding on the cost somewhere around 75 to 90 makes sense. That doesnt mean it has to be that way right now in the face of significance capacity. If youre right and 75 is the price and you look at the map that michelle just showed. To make their budget. Those Companies Run into problems quickly. Not out of business though. The difference between sort of in the black and out of power is a long gray area. So you can change your budget for countries you mentioned where the democratic process isnt exactly free and open. So there are opportunities to modify their spending that gives them more leeway. Do i understand the basic math . Right now the u. S. Is producing 90 Million Barrels a day and were consuming 89 Million Barrels a day. In the old days that would have happened faster. Weve had two Oil Price Shocks in a decade. Their use of oil, its not what it used to be. It doesnt rebound back when prices fall. Weve got more efficient cars and infrastructure. Demand growth is correlated to gdp growth. If you have gdp slowing down in china, then demand doesnt respond quite as much as you expect it, and the gap stays open longer. The renewables, if that does start working and it works sometimes. There are some places for solar obviously. And wind. But thats almost selfdefeating for them. As you just said, it makes us less dependent on the oil at the market. If everybodys driving a tesla, were not going up from 89. Were going to go down from 89. The more we develop alternatives to oil, the more that allows prices to come down and makes it less efficient to actually do the solar and wind. At 65 a barrel or 60 a barrel, the best place for sun and wind would be at the beach. But you dont want to necessarily conflate Power Generation fuels which is primarily thinking of natural gas. Here in the u. S. We use virtually no oil for Power Generation. But look where natural gas i think theyre correlated. But look where natural gas is. Thats better than whats happening with oil. Thats right. Its a terrific bargain. Counters count count counterintuitive thought. If our Oil Production slows down to balance the market, some of that associated gas falls away too. That means slightly higher prices in the u. S. It could also mean it could become less attractive when index prices overseas look more attractive. Were going to leave it there. Kevin, thank you for joining us this morning. Thanks for having me. We have a quick programming note. The ceo of Rex Tillerson of exxonmobil will be joining us wednesday. Maybe all the Financial Assets are up not on the fed but on oil. Meaning that because the price is down d inflation is down. Equity markets are showing over the insurgence of the u. S. And the story coming back to our shores. Its a longterm very positive does that make you feel better about the long end of the curve . It makes me feel in just about everything. Just a low in the background. But when the 10year yield keeps falling theres no inflation. Oil rippled through all parts of think about plastic. Think about everything. Its an input for and then it ripples across all the different suppliers. The supply chain. I hope youre right. I hope its a lack of inflation and not lack of growth. But andrew points out we may need to hire a defense bill when russia completely implodes. It could get interesting. That is one of the major roles of government. Thank you, michelle. Been a busy couple of days for retailers. Lets get a shopping score card and roundup of the winners. Courtney reagan joins us with more again. Hi, court kncourtny. Reporter sales surged 25 for the week. Saw total sales fall 11 and traffic fall 5 . It doesnt necessarily mean that the Holiday Season is doomed. Matt shay tells me what happened over the weekend can be explained in three ways. First, that early promotions pulled sales forward. Second, that consumers are feeling a little better about their financial situation and perhaps didnt feel the urge to rush out and deal with those black friday crowds. Perhaps shopped at home. And third, that we have been conditioned to understand that retailers will offer great deals later in the season. Now an app which tracks retail interactions at 40,000 locations says that walmarts instore traffic surged 217 on thanksgiving day compared to wednesday. Though it fell thursday to friday. While macys saw traffic surge from thursday to friday. Now, fanatics ceo says his company is an early winner. He expects cyber monday to be a big day too. Today will probably be the single biggest day in our history of our company. Black friday was big for us. We expect cyber monday to be up more than 50 , though, today over even black friday significantly up over last year. Several analysts point to l brands as a winner with the victorias secret brand. And coming up on squawk on the street well find out more about this very big cyber monday. Thank you. A quick programming note. Squawk box will be live from the business round table in washington on wednesday. Huge lineup. Well be holding a ceo summit and one will be doug mcmillon. Hes the ceo of walmart his name is not mcmillion though. Thatd be a good name, right . But its not for wal smart theyve got a million employees, dont they . Probably more than that. I think so. I dont know what their sales are per day. A few secotors to watch this morning. And macys. And check out the airlines, the stocks doing very well since a big drop in crude prices over the past few sessions. Remember they are down 20 on ebola fears and they snapped right back as the news cycle got better there. Now theyre all up nicely for the year. Coming up, is there a bubble brewing in car loans . The startling new data on how much people are borrowing to buy new cars and trucks. And later, americans are back once again using their houses as piggy banks. Should we be afraid . Then David Blitzer is going to tell us what investors can expect on wall street this week. And plus how to apple fair this weekend . Squawk box returns in just a moment. But what if you could see more of what you wanted to know . With fidelitys new active trader pro investing platform, the information thats important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. Its your idea powered by active trader pro. Another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. 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Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Futures not sitting well today. Dow has zigged and s. A. Zagged. Looks like the nasdaq would open down 12 points. S p 500 down close to nine points. Tomorrow the markets will find out how well the automakers did over black friday holiday. November sales data will be released from the big three. It could be the best november in u. S. Sales since 2001 with between 1. 27 to 1. 29 vehicles sold. New data out this morning from experian showing the buyers of new and used cars are borrowing record amounts of money to get behind the wheel. Phil lebeau joins us with the details. Hey, joe. Were looking at people borrowing to buy new cars spending almost 28,000 in terms of the actual loan. The newest data shows there are record highs when it comes to new and used vehicle loans. For new loans, average amount borrowed 27,799. That means youre looking at a Monthly Payment on average of 470. Leasing is where theres a big movement in terms of new vehicle loans. Up 7. 1 in the Third Quarter. 29. 1 of all vehicles bought or financed in the Third Quarter were done through leases with the average monthly lease bill much lower than that 470. Down at 397. You talked about black friday. I talked with a couple of dealers. Were seeing a strong weekend in terms of sales. Im hearing from dealers that they expect the november sales to be about 20 to 25 of sales coming last weekend. When you go friday through sunday in some states. It is expected to come close to topping 17 million. Thats why you want to look at autonation. Those stocks expected to get a bit of a bump in the Fourth Quarter because youre going to have a strong november with sales rate topping 17 million potentially. Then youve got the luxury sales going through the end of the year. Again, were going to get those numbers tomorrow morning and do not be surprised, guys with b if we see the strongest november sales since 2001. Back the you. So, phil. So how about suvs, man . I mean, think about with oil theyre hot. Why wouldnt they think about that. Were going to back in that cycle, arent we . Going to be buying these hummers coming back. No, the hum ser nmer is not coupling back. Who put this out in our newsroom . Its not back. Really . I dont Pay Attention to the newsroom. The hummer is dead. Were talking about the used ones. All im saying is people driving the wedge shaped cheese prius things, theyre feeling pretty stupid right now, dont they . Not only does it look awful, they should be embarrassed. They got suckered into that. Now its all for naught. Its going to be 2 a gallon. I will agree with you well see suv sales go higher. Now compared to the last time when oil was much lower and gas was down around 2. 50 a gallon, we have far more fuel efficient crossovers and suvs than we did back then. So people buying them now are feeling much better. Dont you want a fuel efficient vehicle . Theyre on sale. Theyre going to be discounted. The priuses. Fury in hollywood. Several big movies leaked on the internet. And David Blitzer joins us with his market pulse and what he is expecting in 2015. Squawk box will return in just a moment. vo watching. Waiting. For that moment, where right place meets right time. And when i find it i go for it. announcer at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. Thats why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus powerful mobile apps so youre always connected, wherever you are. Because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. Everyone has questions about money. You know, i think about money kind of a lot. Moneys freedom. Moneys always on my mind. Credit cards. Mortgage. Debt. Its complicated. Its not easy. Im not a good budgeter. Unfortunately, im a spender. I would love to learn more about finances. So theres questions about the world that all of us have, especially about money and finance. The goal of khan academy and Better Money Habits and the partnership were doing with bank of america is to give people the tools they need to empower themselves. There is no car because there was no accident. Volvos most advanced accident avoidance systems ever. The future of safety, from the company that has always brought you the future of safety. Give the gift of volvo this season and well give you your first months payment on us. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. The trailer for star wars 7 has been viewed 40 million times in four days. Disneys avengers had more than 50 million views in just five days. Sony pictures is cleaning up from a massive cyber attack over the weekend. Some of its latest movies have been leaked online. Including fury and annie. Our Julia Boorstin says they are looking into any possible north korea connection. A cyber attack knocked out the network a week ago. Sony has fired a forensics unit to help it recover. Coming up next when we return, that didnt take long from Home Improvements to credit cards how many people are going back to the future when squawk box returns. As we head to break, take a look at u. S. Equity futures. Act i. Scene 3. Open port twentytwoohoneseven on the firewall for customer db access. Install version twopointthree of db connector and ensure verbose flag is set in case of problems. clapping sound isnt the cloud supposed to make business easier . Get the one that can connect to the systems that you already have. Today theres a new way to work. And its made with ibm. Welcome back to squawk box. Among the stories that are front and center this morning, fireeye now says that a Cyber Espionage ring stole secrets for the purpose of gaming the stock market. And reuters is now reporting that the Russian Central Bank may have started to intervene on the Foreign Exchange market to curb ruble losses. It is on track for its biggest oneday fall since the 1998 russian financial crisis. And moodys downgrading japans sovereign debt one notch citing their ability to hit Debt Reduction goals. Protesters clashed with police at hong kongs government headquarters. Clashes began yesterday. The latest in what has been a more than twomonthold prodemocracy movement. They are demanding free elections for the citys next leader. More americans are tapping into their home equity, but where is that going . Diana olick joins us with that. Where is that money going . Reporter its going back into spending. It took a nice job in q3 across a lot of categories. A lot of that was refinancing, but the biggest gain was in home equity lines of credit. The helocs which are usually second mortgages, they jumped 7 17 for the quarter. Thats 20 billion in new helocs which is the best of the year. Could top 67 billion which would be the best since 2009. Before were worried yooer using homes like atms again, its historically low. But this game is certainly worth watching. As you asked, what are we using the money for . A study found over half of heloc borrowers say they originally got it for Home Renovations but also was debt consolidation, major purchases, emergencies, and of course education. Now, whats interesting is expectations of these homeowners. Only 19 anticipated using it for energies but 24 ended up doing just that. Only 14 anticipated using it for medical expenses but then 18 did. So people are finding they have more emergencies and more medical emergencies than they expected. Back to you guys. Okay. Thank you. Lets get a check on the markets with all this in mind this morning. The dow, s p, and nasdaq have all been up six weeks in a row. Theyre riding that into the final portion of the year. The nasdaq down 5 away from getting back to that alltime high set back in march of 2000. Reminds us almost of japan when the high was hit 14 years ago. Here now to give us his take on where stocks will finish the year is David Blitzer index managing director also chairman of the s p 500 index committee. And not necessarily something you love to do in terms of forecasting, david, but just give us in terms of historical ranges and next years implied earnings, where are we right now in terms of multiples . Cheap . Definitely not cheap. In line . Well, little bit above in line. But definitely not cheap but a little bit above in line. Given the state of the economy and two particular factors, i dont think its that much to worry about at this point. Were coming off a lot of momentum. I think were going to certainly keep it through the end of the year. We should carry it into next year. One thing thats been not really focused on in the midst of all the excitement about oil and i think oil right now is wonderful at about 60 bucks a barrel or Something Like that. Nobodys focused on the fact that the dollar has been gathering strength. Most other currencies, the euro, the pound, canadian dollars, and the ruble have been going down. And that will mean a lot of people are going to reallocate their investment out of the rest of the world into the u. S. And i think that provides a continual flow of new investment money coming into the market over the next several months. And thats what drives stock prices. I dont know if weve had a period in history like this, david, where obviously its bigger than the entire world getting out of printing. And given whats happening with oil in other parts of the world in terms of prices, it doesnt appear like inflation is going to be a big problem any time soon. So its almost like weve got growth reoccurring or reigniting. And bond prices should stay high, rates should stay low. And inflation should stay low. Its almost like the opposite of stagflation. Maybe these multiples are cheap based on the backdrop. I dont think theyre cheap, but i think what youve got for the moment is what we think happened in the 1960s. Thats probably not what actually happened back then, but its what we think happened back in the 1960s. The u. S. Is becoming for the moment a more and more dominant economic factor in the world. For the first time in 20plus years, if you look at our global index series, the u. S. Represents slightly more than 50 . For a long time it was in the mid to low 40s if terms of what the u. S. Is in the total of the equity markets. And thats just another sign, i think, of money flowing into the u. S. Money flowing into the dollar. Its a question of can we maintain it and control it . We dont want the bernanke savings to come back again. But so far things look pleasantly good. We expect credit default numbers on a regular monthly basis and publish them. They dont show any problems at this point. Your comments about mortgages and so on, car loans. We dont see any default problems there. And your reports didnt show any default problems. So it looks quite positive for the moment. Its almost goldilocks. That makes everyone nervous. I dont know what grows wrong. Some type of negative externality in the world. Which i dont want to talk about that. We probably ought to remember one thing. Sooner or later and my guess is some time in the middle of the next year, the folks at the fed are going to decide to finally get around to raising Interest Rates. And when that happens just like whenever it happens, its always a bit of a shock and everybody feels like, you know, theyve suddenly been rudely punched or something of that sort. So theres at least one bump, but i dont think at this point. But its going to have to be with the backdrop of higher rates in europe. Wouldnt you think . Because you cant you know, its not like were going to the full hundred basis points above italy or portugal or some you know. So you would assume those places are going to have to recover from their slump that there would be a good reason for higher ratss. And if theres a good reason for higher rates, maybe they dont derail because of it. I think youre right. If theres a good reason meaning economies not only in u. S. Or europe but finally beginning to improve and thats what drives the fed higher to raise rates. But theyre not going to have longterm damage. But i think youll still have a certain amount of consternation and upset and what will happen especially in markets where a lot of people seem to believe regulation means theres less liquidity, less trading, less resilience than over the last three decades. That means a bump up in rates is going to be harder to handle. Therell be a lot of shocked people as there were in october. All of a sudden he bond markets seemed to be in turmoil. When are you going to put apple in. Seriously. Do you put google in there yet . Is google in . Why do i know every time we get a chance to chat, im going to get the same question at the end. And you get the same answer. I just dont understand what youre thinking. Youre going to put them in. Apples at 700 now so youre going to put it in as its going down to 300 and its going to mess up the dow. Why dont yo do it when theres still some growth left . Well, first of all, i wouldnt worry about what we do with aig. Historically they were im kidding. But the answer is no comment. You know thats all i can say. But well talk to you again. Fine. Fine. Fine. I think he might be signaling. Its a trillion dollars worth of market cap left out. You didnt see those eyes. He made eyes at you. Did he really . Yes. He said well talk again. You didnt think there was something. Maybe so. Who should we take out . Theres the problem. All right. Thanks, david. Thank you. Have a good day. Coming up next, will it be an apple christmas . Well, if they join the s p it might. But how big of a piece of the Holiday Spending buy will the giant get with the new iphones and ipads . And should you buy the stock before the ends of the year . Thats next. Check this out. The sun rising in phoenix as we speak. Squawk box will return in a moment. 3w4r57 yes. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Nearly nine in ten americans hope to receive a tech gift this year. 38 are hoping for an apple product. Could apple steal the show again on Christmas Day this year . Joining us is gene who covered par piper jaffray. How great a Holiday Season is this going to be for apple . Well, its going to be fantastic if you just take a big picture look. Its going to do 60 billion in revenue this quarter. That compares to 22 billion. Its about 35 of apples business happens in the december quarter. I think the question is is its going to be incrementally more than people hoped . Judging from our work on black friday, its tough. Because were looking at one day. Its about 1 of their revenue. The promotional activity was unique this year. Offer a 50 instore credit for iphone. The simple take away is theyll have a phenomenal holiday quarter. I would expect some upside but not massive upside given the supply constrains on the iphone. Im on their website now. Do they not do a discount on cyber monday . They dont play . No, they dont play. They only do one discount per year and thats on black friday. And typically as i said, just the gift card. Whats your thought on ipads . Thats been one source of disappointment. Its really tapered off. I think the relate is a lot of people have gotten their ipads. The incremental innovation has slowed between cycles. When you look at the lineup last year its significantly more attractive this year. So i think that the ipad was second. Now its a distant second in terms of consumers wish list for this holiday. Clearly this Holiday Season you have new phones at different sizes. All bigger. When you look at the cycle improvement so this christmas would be a big one. What do you think could happen i know this is far out. But 12 months from now, what do you think will happen . The reason i ask is usually theres only an incremental change in the phone every other year. It could be more difficult. I think its going to come down to how the watch is doing and how theyre going to talk about other products. We talked a lot about have been wrong in terms of timing to the tv. Maybe thats something that will merge next year. Hard to say. But i think as far as the phone is concerned which is as youre pointing out is more than 50 of their revenue, is that thats going to have a tough comp in december 15. I think at this point investors should be more focused on whats going to happen in the december and march quarter. Well have to tackle that comp on whats going to be similar hardware. So youre looking forward to the watch. Do you think a tv is really coming still . Ive been talking to you about that for three or four years now. We have been talking about it for a long time. And we do think its coming. We think if you look over the past ten years, the timing in between their cycles, it tends to be three to four years. Weve just got to watch. Maybe its 2016 when it actually comes out. But its clearly part of their road map. They keep teasing and recent comments from tim cook back in october, continue that trickling of interest. And we clearly think something is there beyond their current device. And its a segment that as we survey people, the interest level is through the roof. Half the people you ask in the u. S. If you have an apple tv, they would buy it. But the interest level is exceedingly higher than the level in a watch. If i told you the watch is a bust and there is no tv, what would you tell me about the stock price of apple . Still fairly value snd too high, too low . I think theres still room, some upside. But it gets tough after the march quarter if the watch is a bust and theres no tv. Okay. We will leave it there. I wish we could leave it on a positive note. I think apple is going to kill it this season. But appreciate it. Thank you. All right. Coming up next, jim cramer unleashed after the holiday weekend. Hes ready to sound off after all the turkey, shopping, and football. The new month means new data. The countdown to the jobs report starts today. Squawk box will return in just a moment. Financial noise financial noise financial noise financial noise the ultimate arena for business. Hour after hour of diving deep, touching base, and putting ducks in rows. The only problem with Conference Calls eventually they have to end. Unless you have the comcast business voiceedge mobile app. It lets you switch seamlessly from your desk phone to your mobile with no interruptions. Ive never felt so alive. Get the future of phone and the phones are free. Comcast business. Built for business. Hey there. Kind of like egging me on, jim, to not talk. We need to talk about retail and whether it was whether it was really down 11 . They want me to talk about mark sanchez or something, playing that music. Lets get down to the new york stock exchange. Jim cramer is joining us. Someone said its not whether sanchez can just be average, we dont know how good this guy might be some day. Is that where we are right now . Is he really going to be a Great Quarterback . He does have feet. He can move, unlike a certain new york quarterback. What happened with eli . Its like he looked no one looks worse getting sacked and coughing up the ball. It looked it just looks terrible. Believe me, one hit between two guys i would never get up. Its just painful. Just painful. Painful to watch his face. I mean, put on a little bit better, you know, kind of, hey, listen, i didnt screw it up that bad. He gets down so much in the first half. That was a great game. How great, pats and green bay, that will be a great super bowl, wouldnt it . Stellar. I have to tell you that those are two teams, new england if it had been at home, new england would have won. I mean, these are amazing teams. It definitely was, to me, the preview of the super bowl as much as i would like to think that the eagles can get in because i think the eagles in the end, sanchez is not rodgers. Aaron rodgers, his passes are perfectly led. Was this a really bad was it really down 11 , jim . No. Look, you had information from topeko. Com score said it was up big online. We have tremendous numbers from channel advisor. I had them on mad money. Theyre the keepers of the numbers and theyre talking about plus 23. If channel advisor says its great and com score says its great, its been spoken for. There is no question. Just quickly because we have toss, but, i mean, youve done a lot of things in your life. You have street. Com, you ran a hedge fund, youre a ba zil air. Is being on espn, where i see you coming on, is that the pinnacle . It was fun to compare rg3 to sears and really fun to compare luck to amazon, but because chris berman and a couple of guys knew that i lost my father and mr. Berman said something, listen, i hope thanksgiving is good. I think it was more of a gift to say, listen, were thinking of you. Thats the way theyve always been about me and my dad. The eagles, if hes watching, that was pretty good. Im sure he was smiling at that. Yeah, definitely. We went to ginos after thanksgiving which was the real churky to me. Cheese stake with cheese whiz. All right, jim. Thank you. Bye. See you later. See you in a couple of minutes. Coming up next, the oil shock on the balkan. Could the oil showdown make it go from boom to bust. Well be back from a very chilly north dakota. Announcer wednesday, a squawk box exclusive event. We are in catching ton speaking to some of the nations brightest ceos. Top Business Leaders who are shaping the global economy. Guests include randall stevenson. How he plans to keep his 119 million at t customers said. Exxon mobils Rex Tillerson on the drop of oil and black rocks Ceo Larry Fink on running wall streets largest investment firm. A special morning with a dozen of the nations top leaders. Its right here on squawk box this wednesday starting at 6 00 a. M. Eastern. To help spread some holiday cheer. Before earning 1 cash back everywhere, every time; and 2 back at the grocery store. Thank you even before they got 3 back on gas, all with no hoops to jump through, a couple was inspired to use their bankamericard cash rewards credit card to throw the ultimate Ugly Sweater Party of the season. Thats the spirit of rewarding connections. Apply online or at a bank of america near you. Welcome back to squawk box this morning. Some notable fed speech to talk about. William dudley is also speaking this afternoon. Our own steve leaseman has an exclusive interview with dudley happening at 1 30 p. M. Eastern time. Also, lower crude prices could have a big impact in drilling in the balkan. Thats where we find Brian Sullivan this morning. Brian. Reporter thank you very much, andrew. The concern is really not the price but how long its going to stay at this level. I think people here caught a little off guard by how fast the price of oil has come down so yesterday we went out. We spoke with a guy named tom powers. He runs an independent oil company. He has assets here, he has assets in texas. I asked him if these prices were a big concern o him. He said, not really. Its more about the length of time theyre at this level. Listen to what he had to say . It would take in excess of six months or a year. Probably longer than that. In the wells that we have here, we still have a lot of work to do on the wells that have been drilled. Theres a lot of infrastructure to be put in place. There are a lot of jobs to happen even if the price drops. The wells that have been drilled are not going to be shut in. So, guys, that seems to be the consensus. What is already out there should be okay for now because budgets have already been set for next year. Youve got people already working on them, Infrastructure Projects have been undergone. The real risk is the new rigs because that is where the growth is coming from, guys. Thats why unemployment is 2. 8 . It is the new rigs, not the existing rigs. The last part of the story, which is very important, i dont think has gotten a lot of attention is this, watch the debt levels. By some estimates 20 plus of the entire high yield junk bond market in america are oil and Exploration Companies because a lot of these companies have levered up. Continental resources, whiting, oasis is not just where the price of oil is. Its what kind of debt levels they have because thats a lot of debt obligation. If the price of oil comes down, watch the covenants on some of these loans. I dont want to get too wonky, but the underlying debt situation is a big story as well and the one that well have to dig in. Its minus 15 so its a dry cold though, right . Any wind . Theres no wind right now. Its dry cold. Wet cold. You know what it is, joe, its a cold cold. Cold cold. You know what, the thing youre most proud of, the ears, man. We cant see them with the hat light that, man. Reporter im going to permanently move here just so i can wear a hat all the time and hold these babies back. Although i have to say, if i took it off, they might there they are. They might break off. That all right. Brian. Good, man. See you later. Thanks for make sure you join us tomorrow for squawk on the street is next. Good monday morning. Welcome to squawk on the street. Jim cramer and david favor on wall street as we kick off the month of december. China and europes pmis came in softer than expected. Moodys cuts japan. Black friday weekend sales appear to be a bit soft and then theres oil falling 11 in a single week down again this morning although rebounding a bit. Still below 67. Just a stunning chart. The ten year yield, 216