talks today and reconvene in december. successful talks could open the door to ending sanctions on iran. brian, over to you. thank you very much. good morning, everybody. in corporate news starting your week, american airlines and its pilots union say they will keep talking with the goal of reaching a new labor deal by mid-december. the two sides putting off a plan for arbitration. by the way, shares of american have been up this year 70%. speaking of the skies, commercial drone users are still waiting for new federal rules. the day's wall street journal is reporting the faa will require operators to have a license, limit flights to daylight hours, remain below 400 feet and stay within sight of the person at the controls at all times. and the 2014 shipping season is coming to a very early end on the upper mississippi river. the reason? ice. this is said to be the season's earliest closing in nearly 50 years. it is bad news for many farmers who are now going to have to find other ways to get their crops to new orleans and other ports. >> this drone thing, we just showed a picture of a pizza pie, that means you can't ever send a pizza pie by drone ever. >> there were three close calls at an airport i have heard in the last week. it's getting to the point where the airlines are starting to get too concerned. there are too many near misses and there's a need for federal regulation on this. >> the other stuff you can get around, but the rule or the reported rule about staying within sight of the person with controls, that would eliminate any amazon delivery, you can't do it unless the guy at the controls is a really fast runner. >> i think it's a good idea, though, right? do you really want these flying all over the place? >> one day i might. if i actually felt comfortable. >> but that's a big if. >> and birds, they don't follow the rules. >> never. >> they just do what they want. they are the honey badgers of the skies. other breaking news this morning, a scary report from symantec who says its researchers have found a sophisticated piece of malware circulating throughout the world that appears to be used for spying on internet service and telecommunication companies. they are suggesting that the malware was created by a likely government agency. everybody watch out. and another well-known sports name speaking out on gambling, this time it is mark cuban who has never been one to mince words. he strongly agrees and says with the nba commissioner adam silva arguing that sports gambling should be legalized and he predicts this will happen between three to five years. mark is talking his own book, but there's an argument made in countries where you have gambling, it increases the interest in sports and increases the sports league in multi-fold. agreed. we'll get a check on the monday morning markets. we are calling it monsoon monday here because it's about 40-mile-an-hour winds and rainy. welcome to malaysia. all right. we'll get a check on the futures. we're seeing a slight potential uptick here at the open. becky and i were talking before the break, we are in the strongest short-term rally in at least 50 years for the stock market based on the five-day moving average. we are pointing this out about a week and a half ago. if we finish higher on the s&p 500 today, we will have tied or broken a 50-plus year record for a 30-day move in the s&p 500. >> and that's coming off the lows of october when we saw almost a 10% correction territory at this point. it has shot up since that point. i didn't realize until you pointed that out it was so unusual of a move. >> the s&p is up 5% in 30 days. quite a move. so in europe german business sentiment rebounded just a bit this month to snap the streak of six straight declines. europe's biggest economy barely avoiding recession in the third quarter, to south tease news is cheered. a little golf clap action as a side of the turnaround. you can see germany and france are all higher. what about the price of oil? a slight drop in the futures markets, but again miniscule. we'll watch this closely heading into the holiday shopping season. and the bond market ten-year treasury yield is down slightly. the u.s. dollar, 118.22. and the price of gold right now moving down $3.20 for gold traded overseas. gold is down 6% in the past month. the nikkei, we didn't show it to you because they are closed for their thanksgiving holiday. >> but we saw the asian markets reacting to everything we saw last week. it was another week with another record run for the major averages here in the u.s. as well. the s&p 500 rising 11% from its october lows. so should investors expect a breather any time soon? joining us on the economy is the chief economist at jpmorgan chase. on the markets, we have the chief investment strategist at fema capital markets. brian, we'll start with you talking about the markets. we saw what happened friday first of all with china and europe with the moves by the authorities to try to make sure that they are trying to arrest any declines in what has been happening with their economy. what does this mean for us? >> good morning, becky. we think we are transitioning this cycle from the prior cycle that was all about em and non-u.s. growth. that was really the key to growth, right? this next sickle is going to be the opposite, all about north american growth and incremental growth on top of that is coming from em in europe. that's the difference. so we're transitioning for good news is good news and bad news is bad news. so i think people are becoming more comfortable it is all about north america. and in china, em, surprises the upside, that's where the incremental growth comes from. we are not going to only think about in managing our businesses only for non-u.s. growth. that's a big, pig change. >> so you think we have two good things going for us. we are coming out the other end of this and we look better compared to everybody else out there? >> well, the case was we are the best in the bad neighborhood. that's not the case. we are the house. in any kind of improvement is a positive, but the key thing is we don't need the improvement in em and europe to continue to grow. and any kind of incremental growth we get from that will be the key on top of that, not this sole grower. >> bruce, how confident do you feel with the economy right snow we are going to get a lot of data points this week, jobless claims coming up, what do you expect from all the numbers? >> i think what you're going to see this week is some pretty good news coming out of the consumer indicators. the personal income reports should show a good gain in october and the november confidence readings. i think that's important because it's telling us the falling gasoline prices and the purchasing power lift is making its way through. i think on the other side of things, i don't think durables will be particularly exciting. i don't think the housing indicators will show much other than a flat move. we think we got an economy doing reasonably well here. we think importantly the lift from lower oil prices is still to be felt in the numbers. and i think importantly that's a global development. and it's important that it is the global development because i think what we have had in the last few months is consistent disappointments pretty much everywhere outside the u.s. >> you mean that's the type of thing to keep europe from falling into a recession? >> yeah, i think it's a lift for europe. it's a lift for asia. it is, of course, pushing inflation numbers down to get part of the action on the central bank side that we're going to see. we'll see a very low european inflation number on a year ago basis as it prints this week. >> brian, even though you think that we are at this point the only house in the neighborhood, you still think that this is going to be sideways trading essentially through the end of the year. >> there's a bit of a news vacuum. and we got all excited about five-day moving average. oh! >> i'm not going to apologize for being excited about that. i mean, we're six years into a 20-year bull. let's take a deep breath. it's the biggest stealth bull market of my 25-year career. nobody believes it and we're not there yet. >> six years of 20, where do you get the 20 part? >> pardon me. >> you said we're six years in of a 20-year bull market. >> 20-year bull market. private clients still not playing. the next five years we transition into flat multiples growing revenue and earnings as businesses come back to america. five years during that five-year period we give the emerging markets time to take down their capacity, deal with this transition from a demand economy to a supply-led economy. then we move into the credit creation cycle in three to father years. then you are ten years into the bull market going, ten years into the bull, what? >> is brian right? did you miss it in october if you didn't buy it? was that your one chance to buy in on a dip? >> i hate to say it, but we are into the old '80s and '90s scenario. by the end of the day, the u.s. stocks are pristine assets and become pristine because of the massive structural change they have gone through over the last 15 years. we are all that conservative, we have rebuilt our balance sheets and the assets are the most stable in the world. now we'll take the stability and grow from that. >> okay, bruce, so listen, my cohost on "street signs" calls me captain america because i have been loving the u.s. economy for the last three-plus years, but if you look around the world, there you go, belgium, germany, asia, almost everything is up. there's a couple of markets down in the past 30 days. i can understand the only house in the neighborhood argument if we were the only market up. but every global market is up over 30 days. where is all the new money coming from? >> well, i think there are two things to remember here. one is we had a very disappointing middle part of the year outside the u.s., flu is, i think, some lifting coming. japan is probably going to deliver 2% or more growth this quarter. the euro is going to be over 1%. some of that is payback for disappointments technical in the third quarter. but we are also getting a lift from stronger consumer spending across the world. one more point here, around this story which i think is positive in the near-term on growth, we have a terrible supply side story in the u.s. if we are talking about a 20-year bull market in the u.s., the weakness in labor supply and the weakness in investment and innovation in the u.s. is the real threat we have to worry about in terms of the broader story. >> that's a good point, brian do. you worry about that and what is the solution? is that something to derail at all? >> we have to retrain our workforce and some of that money in terms of onshoring has to do that. in terms of targeting unemployment, i just don't think that's the key thing but what we need to see in our country is wages go up and incentivise companies to retrain them to bring the capacity back. if that's what the behavioral change is going to do to take a while to get that going n the meantime the money that we think will continue to come back slowly as a credibility for ek we as an asset class. that comes with positive returns and more importantly the whole reason people left equities in the first place is because they felt pain and fear. they won't be losing money and say, okay, time to buy equities again. as they slowly start to tick up, slowly, the investors pouring money into the fixed invest got to do it again this year. as you lose money to feel the pain, that's when you see more of the rotation. >> the price target is 2050 for the s&p 500 this year. i won't ask you your 20-price target or 14-year price target but what about next year? >> we debut the big forecast a week from today in terms of 2015. number two, over the next three to five years we are back into the normalized equity return of 8% to 10%. some years will be more, some less. >> 8% sounds pretty good. we'll take it. >> let me just talk to belgium a minute, who cares about stock market? >> my gland grandmother cared, god rest her soul. my point is if all the global markets are higher, where is the money coming from? if the u.s. is up and everybody else is down, then we'll argue that capital is here out of our problems so much better than every other people. the fact that every global market is up. that's where i wonder where the newfound strength is coming from. >> so people are buying the into the markets. >> i figured bruce might need the answer to that question. thank you, mario draghi and janet yellen. is it just not that simple? >> i think there's the man starting to pick up, but i think the central bank story abroad in terms of doing things con stucktive, we certainly need to see more from the europeans as an important part of this. i think the u.s. numbers are what most people are looking for. >> bruce, brian, thank you for joining us. >> and by the way, be prepared for the onslaught of negative comments from the belgium-american community here. >> but i'm part phleflemmish. so i can get away with it. >> i'm irish, too. >> google glasses are supposed to be over with. apparently you can buy them on e-bay now. >> they are terrible. folk wants them. when we come back, 'tis the season for shopping but will the weather derail black friday's kickoff? we have an answer the forecast from our partners at the weather channel. we'll do that next, but first a deal just crossing the wires this morning. biomarin is buying prosensa for up to $840 million. prosensa has no marketing products, by the way. biomarin is a drugmaker to focus on rare diseases. we'll talk about that when we return. if you went to sleep early last night and missed last night's nfl game on nbc, don't go to the office without checking out this catch because it's certain to be the buzz story of the day. take a look, the giants odel beckham jr. making a catch with one hand while falling backwards. some tweets call it the greatest catch ever made, but the catch was not enough for the giants. the dallas cowboys rally to win with this 13-yard touchdown pass with 61 seconds left for the winning score. it is one of the heaviest shopping weeks of the year, was will the weather cooperate and how will temperatures impact the retailers? paul walsh is here with the meteorologist for the weather company, the parent company of the weather channel. paul, welcome. listen, we always talk about weather. i hate talking about the impact on retailers because you're going to shop no matter what. but is there some place in america where literally people can't spend money? besides buffalo. >> i think, brian, we're going into a timeframe where the weather will be very helpful for retailers. we are looking at the potential of a winter storm on wednesday, a travel day, but not necessarily a shopping day. i think by the time we get to black friday, the weather across most of the country is going to be dry, which is critical for retailers, but more importantly seasonally cold. which is really good and good for apparel retailers and department stores. and the fact that it's going to feel like winter and that we've had the cold weather the last few weeks is really going to be a big tailwind in terms of helping the holiday season this year. >> so cold weather is good but do people go out or just bundle up and stay home? >> this time of the year temperature is important. if you've got temperatures much more mild than normal, that actually is bad for certain sectors. department stores will do less in terms of sales of seasonal apparel. the key is having no precipitation or snow. this year up against last year, we had the polar vortex last year and horrible weather some we have a very easy comp. although we are looking at a winter storm on wednesday that is not going to affect shopping. by the way, there's a 50% chance we'll name that storm winter storm cato institute. >> with a c or k? >> with a c. it is named after a roman god. >> so what would that be? give us an advanced weather look then. where is cato going to hit and who is it going to impact? >> it's going to impact the northeastern u.s. so all of us living anywhere from d.c. up to boston are going to be getting anywhere from three to five, six inches of snow. if you are inland or on the coast, it will be heavy rain. it's going to be horrible. >> this weekend in the northeast we are going to get a half foot of snow on the busiest traveling -- now you have something. i-95 which as we know is a joy the day before thanksgiving. it would be very difficult? i'm trying to be polite. >> yes, exactly. so that will be the winter storm day. the good news is that it will impact all of our travel but it won't impact holiday shopping, just to put a bright spot out there. >> i think i would rather have the holiday travel working for me than holiday shopping. unless i own retail stocks. >> we could have a white thanksgiving. in parts of the northeast. >> it is possible. it's definitely possible. the farther inland you go, the greater the chance. of course, you know with these winder storms, the nor'easters, very small changes in the track of the storm can make big changes in terms of the weather. but every day it goes by it's looking more and more likely to see the winter storm. if we name it winter storm cato, i think that's cool. >> i'm dreaming of a white thanksgiving. turkey legs were pinned by the chimney with care in hopes that the stuffing would soon be there. it should be great. >> you're staying home for thanksgiving, i take it? >> not only am i off wednesday, thank goodness, but i was supposed to run a 5k thanksgiving morning and this is my out. i was not looking forward to it. i'm out of shape. you know, this -- paul walsh, the bearer of good news for me, anyway. bad news for everybody else. >> brian, i, too, am scheduled for a turkey trot on thursday which i'm bagging. >> you and me, paul. we'll have a scotch at 9:00 a.m. paul walsh, stay warm, buddy. >> i will. thank you. right now we would like to get to keith carson on what to expect from the weather. keith, you did warn us that it would be warmer today. you did not warn us that it was going to be a monsoon out there. >> yeah, it is quite rainy across much of the northeast today. and it's not that i'm going to skip that story but i'm getting to what paul was talking about. we're watching a storm system wednesday into thursday. so we have to talk about it down here on wednesday morning. down across the carolinas. and will go up the eastern seaboard. that's your freezing mark. in so in general around that and to the west of that is when you're looking at snow. one of the european models we watch is further inland to see the heavy snow off to the west and in through new england heading into thanksgiving itself. at the very least, we're looking at heavy wind and rain along the 95 corridor but it will start as some snow mixing over to rain along the immediate coastline. still snowing wednesday night. basically west of 95 right along 95 as well. and then as we head into thanksgiving day, it will be across maine, new hampshire and vermont. some of the snowfall amounts just inland, five to eight. most of that west of 95. so yeah, becky, because of the timing of this, we'll have to watch this very closely. >> if you're handling balloons on say thursday and are going down broadway, how is it going to be? >> i know he's interested in 95. >> i was a balloon puller ten years ago in the macy's day parade. it is hard enough. >> the sorkin family is only interested on what is happening on the broadway street. so what is the deal? >> well, you know, we were looking at that because we know the criteria is 22 miles an hour and anything over that and they can't. right now it's 18 miles an hour sustained. so we are a couple days ago. the question is, is it too windy to do that part of the parade. we'll have to watch that. >> we'll hopefully have you back tomorrow and bring better news with you then. >> we'll see what i can do. >> mix it up, appreciate it. thank you, keith. when question come back, the immigration fight in washington. taking over the insurance policy industry. renaissance wants us to look at share stock prices with both up in bermuda. mhere's our new trainer! ensure active heart health. heart: i'm going to focus on the heart. i minimize my sodium and fat... gotta keep it lean and mean. pear: uh-oh. heart: i maximize good stuff like my potassium... and phytosterols, which may help lower cholesterol. major: i'm feeling energized already. avo: new delicious ensure active heart health supports your heart and body, so you stay active and strong. ensure. take life in. good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." i'm andrew ross-sorkin along with becky quick. joe is enjoying time off this morning. check out this story, a power outage leaving part of silicon valley in the dark this weekend. now the san francisco chronicle reporting that the whole thing was caused by a squirrel. nearly 2,000 customers in cupertino were without power for two hours. this isn't new. schoolgir schoolgir squirrels apparently have caused power outages before. there were alerts on 50 squirrels causing power outages in 24 states. always blame the squirrels, apparently. let's get a check on the markets right now. you'll look at the futures and see at this hour green arrows. right now the dow futures are higher by 28 points above fair value. s&p futures up by 4.5 points. nasdaq up by eight points. energy prices also looking higher, but just barely up by 13 cents for wti to 76.64. brent at this point looks like it's trading at 80.42 a barrel. also checking out what is happening with the ten-year, the yield is at 2.328%. the dollar is stronger this morning against the yen down against the euro. but remember that was after a move of more than 1% against the dollar on friday when draghi made his announcement. we'll look at what is happening to money prices right now. trading at. we were turning to president obama going on the offensive and how will republicans respond in this. friends of "squawk," what do you have to say about this? >> the republican leadership is adamantly opposed to shutting down the government. they don't want to scare the markets or america, but not shut it cloud. you have rank in file republicans and saw on the sunday shows they want to respond to obama in some way. >> how do they do that? >> well, the lame duck, they have eight days to do that coming back from the current break. the concessions are in turn with raising the debt limit, but they will hit obama on nominations. fed nominees they will try to block, the attorney general nominee, a lot of key posts that the white house will want to build that republicans could block a letter off to them. do they pass the agreement through themselves? that's probably not very likely. in the united states there are some who say to deport them all and to let a large group of them saying, politics soon. but they have not figured out -- for them to say they know would be -- because i know. >> they are whispering in my ear but three different things. the wall street republicans and moderate republicans say no government shutdowns, none of this. we'll have to reform immigration at some point and not cause a crisis over this. but that's the leadership, too. boehner, mcconnell, no shutdowns. others say to im. >> we're ready for anything goes. you can probably bet we're not going to get a shut down before january. >> anything to come as a shut down would come as a bit of a shock to the markets. >> the last thing you want to see is us shut down on a christmas holiday. >> the tax extenders are not extended into next year. that will kill the 50% bonus depreciation on capital spending. so if you're thinking of building a factory or buying a huge piece of equipment and you think congress isn't going to extend it, buy it now. >> the problem is that it was not extended last year. so you're going to lose it. but they need to retroactivity extend it for this year and next year. the hope for a big runup based on dr. sanders is two other -- he's a democrat. mr. lassard and other democrats. like elizabeth warren. they don't want him to have this role. >> elizabeth warren came out very much so -- >> what is going to happen here, tom? >> i think eventually he'll get confirmed for that job as i have the democratic opposition from him. it is reerd to referred to as wall street being the worst possible thing on your resumé. so there is that tension within the democratic party, but i don't think you have seen the kind of ground swell in position. >> i've been surprised, you have been conaling a lot of the support he's gotten. they have raised a big hair of obama but they are not backing off on him. and you have made good points about it. you really want somebody to understand wall street and finances because that's how we'll make sure we finance our own debt. >> foreign investors buy all the debt up and you want to be able to manage the $18 trillion debt in a way to not send up borrowing costs. you might as well work on inversion deals. >> so who is that, katy and perry? >> if you want somebody in a high-level position that knows anything about finance, treasury position or whatever it might be, you're probably going to get something that comes in a giant circle with a giant scarlet letter. >> it is more difficult in his instance because he worked on the conversion deal and the the -- >> i don't think it's a real meal. >> i don't think so so either. but in a shorthand, had you not worked on those it would be easier to get that job. >> it's shocking when canada is used as a taxpayer. >> totally outside your normal world. because you do a show for people in crisis. i want to ask you about bill cosby. we have watched lots of people who were up here and have been laying low. but some come back over time. so i was curious how morning money feels about this. >> i don't think there's any way that he comes back from this in the public conscience. >> a huge report in "the washington post" over the weekend. >> look at the litany of charges against him and the similarity for which they beleveled him. there was. and you don't see anything promise i promising these charges are false. that's not happening. who knows about the statute of limitations and what legal liability he's going to face in terms of being a public figure and money making figure. that's over. >> there's no washington politicals who were out there wanting this but i'm sure you can sign someone up. how do you rehabilitate someone with this number of charges against them? and the similarity to the charges, if i were a spin master and didn't know the numbers, i won't take this job. i wouldn't do it. >> great to see you there. much more to come on "squawk box" include iing these. and some say gas prices could drop more. if they do not cut production, we'll get a preview with a great snapshot of everything going on in the world. we'll talk to tom friedman of "the new york times." but first, here's a quick check on the european markets that are mixed. u.k. is down, germany and france are higher and our futures are mildly higher. we are back right after this. signature, prr you could drive home for the holidays in a german-engineered volkswagen. like the sporty, advanced new jetta... and the 2015 motor trend car of the year all-new golf. if you're wishing for a new volkswagen this season... just about all you need is a finely tuned... pen. hurry in and get zero due at signing, zero down, zero deposit, and zero first month's payment on select new volkswagen models. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. and often even more. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $89.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "squawk box." the s&p 500 is opening higher, four points higher. dow jones 20 points higher and the nasdaq is up seven. also, attention history buffs and tech geeks. on this day netscape was bought for 4.2 billion dollars. in washington the president will award the medal of freedom. among the recipients, actress meryl streep, music legend stevie wonder and nbc's tom brokaw. this is the highest civilian honor in america. and when we return, "the hunger games" setting the highest box office of the year but that won't stop the critics. we'll talk about that in a minute. and the countdown is on to the holiday shopping season. we have a snapshot of the retailer's best position coming up at the top of the hour. cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? 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(singing) four calling birds...three french hens ...(the guys starts to fizzle out) two... turtle...doves... i really went for it there ya you did ... you really, really did now get 3 gigs of data on one line for $65 a month. switch to at&t, buy a new smartphone and get $150 credit per line. it is official. katy perry is going to headline the halftime show. she made the announcement last night although rumors have been swirling for months. no issue on the play to play criticism from the music industry after suggesting the performers contribute financially to play at the show. i think she was on twitter last night talking a little bit about it. she was down in australia during the game. and talking about this, it was a huge weekend at the box office with the new "hunger games" movie bringing in $123 million. that's the biggest debut for any movie in 2014, but that's less than expected by "lionscape" and the previous two "hunger games." joining me is brent lang and senior analyst brarton crock et with capital markets to covering "lionsgate" and the other big movie studios. brian, we'll talk about what happened over the weekend. it was surprising to see the numbers coming in. i was at the movies this weekend and saw a lot of people there. >> there were an awful lot of people there. admittedly, it is strange to have to defend a $123 million debut, 15th biggest opening of all time. only 14 films made more in their opening, but my landscape is saying they expected an opening between 130 and 1506789 both of the previous films did more than $150 million. more analysts expected this film to top 150 million. so in the wake of these results, some questions about is there some franchise fatigue. is "hunger gapes" showing wear and tear. what is going on here? >> most of those there were girls in the range of -- look, the last film was in the imax theater and those tickets are expensive. >> yes, those accounted for $10 million each in each of the previous installments. they were not getting that money this time. imax committed to showing "interstellar" through december. so that's going to hurt a little bit. that had a big impact. this was a film that wasn't shown in 3d and that carries a pri price. >> this doesn't accomplish anything, you really go halfway. >> i think that's a good point. right now movie go eers are kind of wise to this tactic of splitting the final installment. and i think if there are a bunch of people who said, okay, this is a lot of explanation, no conclusion, we'll wait until the next film comes out. what does this mean? we are trimming assets 1% or so this morning. one of the offsets is one of the internationals have performing better than anticipated to help in the next sequel. it's a little, helpful that the lionscape runs so lean. they are only spending $50 million to market the movie domestically, which is a lot less than i anticipated and a lot less than for any big movie like. this we think lions gate is going to take off. people are interested in a time of in from non-traditional companies for their content. people like netflix and alibaba. orange is the new black on net flex, you know, anger management. and that there is a consolidating theme in the studio industry that benefits lionsgate stock as well. >> is that over the next 12 months? >> yeah. >> it looks like that stock is closer to 33 right now so that looks like you're expecting significant returns for the stocks. >> it's a good holding. it's volatile but i think you'll do well in the studio space. >> let's jump off on that idea of splitting the book in two and whether that hurt the series or not. what does that mean for "the hobbit" who took the slim book and made it into three ones. what do you make of that? >> i expect it will have a nice bump over part two. this is the conclusion. it's the last of the middle earth books. these books are -- you know, have been a source of constant litigation over the years. the chance that they figure out another way to go back to dwarves and goblins and dragons is pretty slim. i think the final "hunger games" will also benefit from that conclusion. and it's important to note they're going to make gobs of money on this film. >> goblins of money. >> if they decided to do one final film. >> barton, let's talk more about what's happening in hollywood. you said you think lionsgate is in a good position. what other stocks do you like? >> i think lionsgate is interesting. a much bigger company that i love for the movie slate is disney. disney is a company that's going to be rebooting star wars next year. and they've got sequels to marvel stretching out as long as the eye can see. bringing that animation in pixar. i think they're going to increase profits a billion dollars annualized over the next several years. that's going to be helpful for disney's stock. the movie theater stocks give you great dividends. getting premium priming out of that. and i think is really going to be great for 2015 and the theaters. >> barton, brent, want to thank you both for coming in today. great talking to you. >> i have one question for brent before we go. if you can indulge me. we were talking about cosby with ben white earlier. on syndication. amazon still offers the show. hulu still offers the show. viacom owns a network called centric still offering the show. does it matter? will they continue to? i assume we're into the afterlife of that show to begin with. but when you think of the money involved -- >> bill cosby financially is in a good position. but right now this trial by twitter that's going on, i think, you'll see more companies do what nbc, tv land, and others have done. just stay away. i think so. i would expect so. >> there's no upside to keeping it around. >> i don't know if there's -- but i assume there's got to be some people around there who say to themselves that they're not going to pull it. i mean, there's a great article online over the weekend that says can you hate bill cosby and still love the bill cosby show? >> no. >> and i wonder whether there are people who still want to watch it. >> his public persona was so tied up with that character, it's going to be difficult. >> and what it does to the fortunes of everybody tied to bill cosby. producers and actors who still get back end on that program. there's a whole sort of -- when you think of the money in that program, billions of dollars in syndication already. i don't know how much more in syndication fees you think existed. also if there was going to be a second life for that program had netflix and everybody picked up the next version of bill cosby. >> absolutely. it's not a great time to be part of the cosby entertainment empire. >> thank you. appreciate it. in other media news, apple is launching a huge two-week red campaign. that was the cherry that begun in 2006 by the singer bono. its goal is to rid the world of hiv and aids. it will involve the app store, retail locations as well as its online store. coming up, opec ministers are meeting this week. if the cartel does not stop production, oil prices could plummet. plus the countdown to christmas as consumers start their shopping. we're going to speak to the chairman of jarden corporation. we're going to get a full snapshot of you the consumer. as we head to break, check out the futures market right now. indicating perhaps a slight uptick. a couple of points above fair value. nothing big. but we've been in the middle of one of the rallies. we're back after this. mhere's our new trainer! ensure active heart health. heart: i'm going to focus on the heart. i minimize my sodium and fat... gotta keep it lean and mean. pear: uh-oh. heart: i maximize good stuff like my potassium... and phytosterols, which may help lower cholesterol. major: i'm feeling energized already. avo: new delicious ensure active heart health supports your heart and body, so you stay active and strong. ensure. taife in. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. and often even more. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $89.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. crude reality. could oil prices take yet another plunge? find out what's at stake at this week's big opec meeting. tracking the global hot spots. dealing with isis. rumblings in russia. best selling author tom friedman is our special guest. let the travel frenzy begin. where are all the travel dollars heading as 46 million americans about to get ready to get on the root this thanksgiving. the second hour of quarterback begins right now. welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. this is cnbc first in business worldwide. i'm becky quick here with andrew ross sorkin and brian sullivan. joe is off today. at top of the headlines today, a grand jury decision is expected in the killing of michael brown. the city of ferguson, missouri rb is bracing for larger protests. the shooting three and a half months ago triggered riots and looting. we'll have a live report at 8:00 eastern time. let's get a look at the markets at this time. both the dow and the s&p 500 closed at record levels again. right now the dow is indicated up by another five and a half points and the nasdaq up by 10.5 points. in europe this morning green arrows there as well. at least when looking at germany and france. the cac up by .9% ftse slightly weaker. we've been watching oil prices and at this point they've turned down a bit. at this point, trading at $76.24 a barrel. and we've been watching the barn markets as well. the dollar this morning a little bit weaker against the euro which is sitting. after we heard from draghi talking about that he'd be doing there. also look at gold prices. gold prices look like they are down by $3.50. >> you and i talked about it, we mentioned in the 6:00 a.m. hour but if people are just joining us, this comes from jonathan -- don't look at me like that. if we finish up today in the s&p 500 by just a couple of points, it would be the longest short-term streak since 1927. this will officially be one of the strongest month-long runs in the history of the u.s. stock market. and it's kind of done it quietly. >> it has. but it was such a quick dropoff. this is almost a snap back from the correction of almost 10%. >> it's not a snot back. that would be a different thing. >> snap back. clearly. >> but you nose from which you speak. >> let's talk about global news this morning. tonight is the deadline for a nuclear agreement between iran and the u.s. and other world powers. by most reports with, though, n expected to happen. reuters reporting the parties involved with adjourn talks today and reconvene in december. successful talks could open the door to ending sanctions on iran and ian bremer had an interesting tweet this morning saying he expects iran to be one of our great friends in the next decade. he thinks that the relationship is actually going to get better, not worse. so who knows. gasoline prices sliding again. the lundberg survey putting a regular gallon at $2.84. falling ten cents in the last two weeks. that's down 88 cents since the peak. opec gearing up to meet on thanksgiving day. and of course the topic is going to be the 30% drop in oil prices since mid-summer. joining us now about what to talk about and what to expect from the meeting is steven sh t schork. reports iran is actually suggesting a production cut from saudi arabia. do you believe that will happen? >> absolutely not. here we are a bunch of capitalists sitting around trying to bet on whether or not opec is going to behave like a good socialist. right now we're having the have nots in opec, iran demanding that the other side transfer its wealth. what we have to do is let's frame this issue right now. the start of last summer, we had a deal with iranian nuclear. oil's trading at $100 a barrel. so we have the demand because we're at the start of the summer driving season and supply is in question. now what's happened over the summer? well, japan's in recession, germany and the rest of europe has avoided the recession by the barest of margins. the dollar is at a four-year high. strong dollar correlates to weak oil prices. and that iranian sanction deal fell apart. as you mentioned before, we have the deadline. so if you tell me of what the decision on that decision are the iranians going to acquiesce. there's no way in my mind the saudis are going to give an inch to the iranians if the iranians don't give them something in return. it has no incentive, that is, for saudi to play a long ball. saudis earned 9%. they've got the financial wherewithal to sustain this. so now if you're saudi again, why do you produce? >> well, the venezuelans, their bond is trading below 60 cents on the dollar. the state oil company of venezuela is trading below 75 cents on the dollar. these guys aren't going to cut a thing. so they're going to continue to put barrels on the market expecting the saudis to do their heavy lifting. >> even though saudi arabia has a giant social system to support? >> indeed, it does. but again, keep in mind the saudis, kuwait, they're much more prudent. they set their budgets at $80 to $90. i just mentioned the saudis have $63 billion of extra funds this year to play around to help them see it through and help them work it through and get this through. and again, can continue to hold ooi iran's feet to the fire. the way things are going in the middle east, we're talking about the balance tipping away from israel, away from saudi arabia. so this is something a nuclear iran, israelis and arabs do not want to see this. >> i'm not going to take anything away from the drop in oil. it's been great. $2.55 a gallon is great in new jersey. however, we were in the mid-70s in oil back in september of 2010. we were in the high 70s of oil in september of 2011. a few months later, we were back above 100 bucks a barrel in oil. is that going to happen again? >> i've been coming on since we had this drop since the end of september. i do think the bottom is here. this is the opportunity to get into this market. if any i'm wrong -- so yes, i do think we get back up to this $85 range right now. keep in mind, what happened, nothing is changed with regard to u.s. production. u.s. production has been producing and setting records month in and month out for years on end. the suggestion this was a price war with a bunch of guys in north dakota who can't even export their barrels are ludicrous. of demand in the united states alone was eradicated because of maintenance. that demand's now coming back into the market. going to talk about thanksgiving. 46 million motorists were going to be on the road. we've got extra money in the pocket. so we have more money to spend. so we're going to be on the road. we're going to increase demand artificially because of these prices. so we have the scenario. there goes demand. consumers now have a greater appetite for gasoline. so there goes demand. and we'll quickly work through this over-capacity and supply. in my mind, the only way i am wrong is if this is, indeed, 2009. 2008, 2009, and we are on the precipice of another global pulldown nap to me is the only way we can break and really drive prices significantly lower at this point. >> it was a real pleasure. thanks for coming on. >> thanks. retail season is hitting its fever pitch with 30 days until christmas. martin franklin is our guest host the next couple hours. thank you for being here. >> thank you. >> we have 30 days. what's it going to look like? >> i think it's going to be pretty good. for all the things you know about, we are going to have a healthy -- >> you're speaking about jarden or overall? >> i think overall consumers are in as good a place as you could hope. you've got two days between thanksgiving and christmas. >> gas is down. more than a million people working more than last year. >> there are so many things people feel insecure about their jobs. >> home prices are up. people have refinanced at cost. all the things we've talked about over the last year or two. the reality is going into a period where people are feeling pretty good about how they want to treat their families. >> and what's the nix going to look like in terms of this omni-channel world we live in? in terms of people using their lower fuel price, they're going to go to the store this time? >> i think you're going see the continuation of a trend switch you're going to see more and more dollars pulled from bricks and mortar to online. people are going to wander the stores, wander the mall. some will pick products online. but, you know, it's going to be strong i think in all channels overall. >> is this different than you felt in years past? can you quantify and say, okay, i feel like this is five stars versus four stars or three stars a year or two ago? >> i think this is as close to five stars as you'll have seen for awhile. but it's been a continuing trend. it's gotten stronger and stronger. i was early talking about when things got bad. then talking about things coming back up. and i said it's going to be gradual. and i think we were on a few months ago and i said the same thing which is continuing improvement. and i think you're going to see that in q4. >> and in terms of the product mix, high end, low end, you're talki ining everything across a- >> i think it will be across all channels, but i do think as it always is is the people who are the haves in a period of asset inflation we've gone through. people will feel generous. >> looking at marma being great. outdoing thing -- >> i think it will be good. the crock pot business has been strong. we've seen strengthen in the consumer solution. things like crock pots and mr. coffee. products like that. >> how's nook doing? >> our baby business? >> i have have a 2-month-old at home. the maternity ward was packed at the hospital. it was full. seriously. when the economy gets better, people tend to also feel more comfortable about bringing another life into the world. >> absolutely true. and people want to buy products they have comfort in. we're seeing in china the nuk business is taking off. why? consumers in china usually have one child. they want that child to have the best. >> that's a big deal too. that's a relatively new thing. the one-child policy. having consumer who is can afford to spend up for that. when did you see that taking off? >> in the last two or three years. >> when you hear about china lowering interest rates because they're having trouble in other areas of the economy, is that not ringing true to you because it's a new market for you? >> no. i would say that's on the margin for us. it is an emerging growth market for us. it's not going to move the needle too much. >> okay. we're going to take a little bit of a break, but we've got you for two hours. and we've got skis right behind you plus boots. you might sell some more -- this might be a great season for you this year. >> hopefully. empties out the channel for this year for a stronger selling season next year. >> okay. thank you. >> and if you're snowed in, nine months later you might be buying a nuk. >> nice. >> uh-huh. >> you see where i went there? >> i see where you went there. >> happens. up next, we do have stocks chugging along. we'll check out another area of the market that could provide happy returns right now. plus isis, iran, oil, those are some of the topics we plan to cover with best selling author tom friedman. and will you be one of the 46 million americans traveling this thanksgiving? oh, boy. the cost of the travel frenzy coming up in the next half hour. also check out the weather. we've been hearing from our weather guy this morning you could be in for a rough ride if you are traveling in the northeast. "squawk box" will be right back. how can power consumption in china, impact wool exports from new zealand, textile production in spain, and the use of medical technology in the u.s.? at t. rowe price, we understand the connections of a complex, global economy. it's just one reason over 70% of our mutual funds beat their 10-year lipper average. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. request a prospectus or summary prospectus with investment information, risks, fees and expenses to read and consider carefully before investing. thank you. ordering chinese food is a very predictable experience. i order b14. i get b14. no surprises. buying business internet, on the other hand, can be a roller coaster white knuckle thrill ride. you're promised one speed. but do you consistently get it? you do with comcast business. and often even more. it's reliable. just like kung pao fish. thank you, ping. reliably fast internet starts at $89.95 a month. comcast business. built for business. and welcome back to "squawk box." 7:15 on a monday morning. good monday morning, by the way. the futures indicating slightly higher in the u.s. stock market. united ceo retiring effective immediate. big management change at utx. with interest rates at rock bottom levels, our next guest is making the case for diving into -- joining us now is glen, it's great to have you here today. >> thanks for having me. >> when you talk about diving into distressed debt, for some it isn't worth it. why. >> you have to separate the stress debt to performing debt. typically 50, 60, 70 cents on the dollar. right now the u.s. economy as good as it is now it's not really the time this moment for u.s. to stress debt. and so from our perspective when the u.s. economy is so good, the right opportunity is actually to play it in lower risk assets like bank loans and high yield debt. the opportunity to buy in at libor plus 400, 500 return. we think it is quite interesting. we see a large number of investors allocating capital there. >> let's talk about that a little bit. the idea you don't want to do it right now is something trading at the stress levels in the u.s., it deserves it. >> yeah. we've been doing b this for 27 years. i've been doing this for 27 years. and distress debt, there's been three big cycles. 1991, 2003, '08, '09, '10. it's been exciting when there's been a deep recession, financial system crisis. and technical reasons why people have been selling. and right now the u.s. economy is in very good shape. 2%, 3% growth. the banking system is in terrific shape. so there's not a lot of distress today, but there will be because there's been $4 trillion of financing over the last couple years. some time out in the late part of this decade, there will be a large distress cycle, we think. we're excited about that opportunity, but in the interim when interest rates are at 0% and the u.s. 10-year is at 230, people need to make yield. so we're getting an enormous amount of capital to us and to other people who do what we do. looking for places to deploy capital and make 5% to 12% yields in the 0% rate environment is attract i. >> when you say towards the end of the decade we will have a bit of a downturn. we had a guest on saying we're in the middle of a 20-year bull run in the 6:00 hour. how do you get to that estimation? that's just the rule of, you know, after about a decade we always seem to run into something? >> i don't think that it's guaranteed that we're going to have a deep distress cycle. what i do see, though, is that typically when debt comes due and large pools of debt need to get refinanced, that seems to be in line with a cycle. and in fact, the u.s. economy now is on the seventh year, sixth year of a good recovery. even though it's a slower recovery which is this elongated recovery that we think is going to last longer. so i agree it's not likely to have a big distress market tomorrow. outside the u.s. but that all said, in europe we see lots of distressed opportunities because of the macro economic environment. the capital markets never really develop. so we're very excited. i was in london last week. and we've got $4 billion of capital over there and see growing that to $10 billion over the next couple of years. so it's all about finding your spots. >> what were some of those opportunities? i know you can't tell us specific names on them. but what type of areas? >> there's opportunities in the german autoparts space. there's private companies that need capital there, opportunities in the periphery, housing in the uk. there's a fair amount of real estate opportunities in europe. we've actually been involved in a number of restructurings there. and so there's really a range of opportunities. and the reality is in europe the companies don't have access to capital. there's not a vibrant capital market like there is in the u.s. and so the opportunity to provide direct lending possibilities, direct lending capital to companies that need capital, need flexible capital. they have invested in their business in a difficult market. so there's good things to do there. >> everything is going well around the world. or as well as could be. what is the big possible variable that could screw everything up? >> there's certainly risk out there. china we were talking today the big news about cutting rates there. the fact that the world is so dependent on chinese growth, we're 7.3% growth is a disappointment. we've gotten so spoiled. that marginal demand is -- certainly if we were to see in more meaningful decline in chinese -- the chinese economy, then we would see some more impact onto the markets. >> do you think that rates are going to move up any time soon in the states? >> i think in the u.s. there's a real hesitance to raise rates. because the economic recovery has been so slow. and i think the fed even though they're now in a position to think about raising rates. i don't really think that they want to put the breaks on at the low growth cycle. and so you've got -- quantitative easing ends. but now you get the oil price reduction, that's to stimulate the economy. and so it's going to be an interesting next 6 to 12 months to see what the fed does. my own view is that this is a slow recovery. there's a lot of capacity in the labor force. so i think we're going to actually see a prolonged period of lower rates and when rates do go up, then there'll be that adjustment and the economy will be able to support that. but they're not going to put the breaks on the economy. >> glen, we want to thank you for coming in. come back again. >> thanks. coming up next, a story that's trending bigtime on social media this morning. it happened during last night's giants/cowboys game. check out the catch next on "squawk box." we're back in a moment. breath . and... exhale... aflac! and a gentle wavelike motion... ahhh-ahhhhhh. liberate your spine... ahhh-ahhhhhh...aflac! and reach, toes blossoming... not that great at yoga. yeah, but when i slipped a disk he paid my claim in just four days. ahh! four days? yep. see why speed matters, at aflac.com. good monday morning. wmg back to "squawk box." if you missed sunday night football on nbc last night, you missed one of the most amazing catches you have ever seen. o'dell beckham jr. making a spectacular one-handed grab. unfortunately part of a losing effort. some people on social media saying it's the greatest thing they've ever seen. until the next greatest thing they've ever seen. >> always the case. >> no hyperbole. >> great catch. give him props. they still lost. up next, we'll talk about mini global hot spots flaring up lately. tom friedman will talk to us. and look at the u.s. equity futures. dow futures up by about 31 points above fair value. this comes after both those indexes were at record highs again on friday. 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>> you know, two things happen. one, the talks collapse. and we're basically in a situation where we've got open ended sanctions on iran. iran would be free then to pursue its nuclear options. i still think the most likely scenario since no one has an interest in that is that we get some kind of postponement or continuation of the talks agreed by the two parties. whether the iranians give us more on the nuclear reductions. they give us more loosening sanctions, i'm not sure. but it's hard to believe that the whole thing collapses right now. i think too many people don't want to see that happen. >> so if we see some sort of an extension, if we get something down the road, what do we say to the critics like israel who have said we shouldn't be bargaining with them in the beginning? we shouldn't reached anything by this deadline, are we kicking it down the road? >> one thing to say, if the talks collapse, it's not clear that we can keep the sanctions on indefinitely. i think israel's got to calculate that. or we would be left with nothing but a military option. so for all those reasons, it feels like they'll find some way down the road for awhile. the deeper question is all these young people are desperate to get connected to the world. you have a country that's infrastructurewise falling apart. but this is not going to be put to a popular vote here. one is the supreme leader. i always loved that title. supreme leader. do you think he has a business card that says supreme leader on it. i always wondered. so he is really worried that in opening iran to the world, all the young people connecting with the world, what do they need him for? that's certainly very much on his mind. then the revolutionary guards who not only the protected domestic industries who face stiff competition, but they control all the smuggling. and they're making huge money from that as well. >> let's talk oil as well this morning. we have an opec meeting this morning. you think that there's actually a global oil war that's underway. you want lay that out for people? >> you know, it -- i really raise it as a question. because saudi arabia today is deeply worried. let's go back to the iran story. they're deeply worried that iran is going to basically patch up things with the united states and be much more integrated than it is in the middle east. that's one thing the saudis are worried about. the other thing they're worried about, they look around their neighborhood and what do they see? they see iran with de facto control today. damascus through bashar assad. baghdad through their proxies there. and now yemen. so if you're a sunni muslim power like saudi arabia, you're looking for ways to weaken the iranians and the fact that the saudis have not been really willing to cut production and we'll see at this opec meeting what comes out of it. so for saudis, they're a twofer. you've heard russian's putin and you weaken the position. >> there's a third aspect to that as well. maybe this is where you can help us understand the goals better. there's been some suggestion that they have winked and nudged saudi arabia to keep production where it is to damage russia's economy over ukraine. but at the same time if we continue to see oil prices at this level, it would seriously damage our energy renaissance by what's happening of north dakota and midland, texas. what does saudi arabia want more? >> you know, the standard number you hear is somewhere between 60 to $70 a barrel. anything below that starts to peel off production from the united states. and there certainly is some belief out there that the saudis would like to take this thing down, you know, maybe well below 60 and really knock out a lot of that north dakota and broader shale production in the united states. so they have a lot of reasons right now from geopolitics to geoeconomics to see the price stay soft. >> but does that raise the question whether or not we're in league with them or this is an us versus them and they want to hold on to market share. >> we banned the export of oil. it's illegal to export oil, but the commerce department does give waivers. and if you notice in the last few months they've been giving waivers for several hundred thousand barrels of oil products. so who knows what's going on there. but i guarantee you one thing, putin thinks it's all a conspiracy. >> what do you think about putin, tom? he kind of scares the heck out of me. where does he rank on your list? >> he ranks really high. he ranks so high that i would say he actually ranks higher than isis for me. >> really? >> i think putin is really decided now that he doesn't just want to carve off part of the ukraine with a russian-speaking ukrainians. that he is engaging in another buildup there to force the ukrainians to agree to a kind of federal system that would give a de facto veto over his allies over anything ukraine does in the kiev central government. now, on paper, putin is worried about nato expansion. and ukraine joining nato. anyone in this room who believes that nato has any intentions of invading russia, please raise your hand. okay? so this to me is a completely contrived thing. what putin really is worried about is not nato tanks, but european union values. the last thing he wants is to see ukraine join the european union, adopt the rule of law, transparency, and economic policies of the european union. and start to show a kind of success that poland showed that would be a standing reputation to the very closed autocratic system that putin is running in russia. this is not about nato. it's about the eu. and eu values really threaten putin. >> tom, our guest host today is martin frank, and he has a question for you. >> if we could go to iran for a second. we talk about kicking the can down the road. what if there isn't an agreement? at the end of the day do you agree there's going to be an agreement that's going to work for all sides and is going to satisfy israel and other middle east countries that are more moderate? >> it's a perfectly legitimate question, martin. if you believe in that you believe you can get all the squares in the cube right. >> you can. take the stickers off. >> with this new congress coming in, given the hard line of the israeli government and i think the increasing sympathies of this new congress to the views of netanyahu, it's very hard for know imagine a deal that would satisfy the israeli government and this new congress and be sailable back home by the iranian government. the best you can get is some prolongation of this inner arrangement. but a funl deal is very hard to imagine. >> hey, tom, it's sorkin here. ian bremer on twitter this morning i mentioned it earlier in the show, he said i expect iran will be one of america's closer friends in the middle east within a decade. provocative thought. crazy? >> no. i don't think ian's crazy about that. there was one middle east country that held candlelight vigils for americans after 9/11. it was iran. the historical argument has been in saudi arabia the government loves us but the people don't like us. in iran the government doesn't like us, but the people like us. this is a country will real politics, let's remember. women are in power. they're in the workforce. they're in the parliament. it has a reformed islam. and there are a lot of natural historical and geographic forces that would suggest they should be closer allies. it's what worries the sunni arab world right now. if you think about it. because basically iran is like your older brother who walked out the door 35 years ago and slammed the door. and, you know, becky took his stereo and andrew took his bicycle. you know, i took his bedroom. and then 35 years later, knock on the door. big brother's back. he says i want my bicycle, my stereo, my bedroom back. and nobody is interested in making room for him. especially when you the sunni arab world had this monopoly on your rupp with the united states. >> the isis leader al baghdadi pretty much says what he wants to do. do you think isis tries to take baghdad? and if so, what is our response? >> i really doubt that. baghdad today is a predominantly shia city. and the iranians who have been really arming and training and directing not so much the iraqi army which is a corrupt shell, but the shiite militias who have done most of the successful fighting against isis, the iranians will not let baghdad fall to isis. i don't see their ability to basically take on both american air power and iranian-backed militias on the ground which is a predominant lly shia city. >> thank you for talking to us. >> thank you. >> and our guest host today again is martin franklin. he's the executive chairman of jarden. more with him in a moment. when we return, the holiday travel gas prices may be lower. but traveling by plane, the costs are going up. where are the travel dollars going? we've got all that when "squawk box" returns in just a moment. it's more than the driver. it's more than the car. for lotus f1 team, the competitive edge is the cloud. powered by microsoft dynamics, azure, and office 365, the team can gain real time insights and instantly share information around the globe. when every millisecond counts, staying competitive begins with the cloud. this is the microsoft cloud. so open an account with schwab. and when a market move affects, say, a cloud computing stock you're holding, we can help you decide what to do. with tools that help you see how market activity is affecting your positions. so when the time comes to decide whether to scale in or scale out... you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ and start working on your next big idea. right! now you're gonna ask for my credit card - - so you can charge me on the down low two weeks later look, credit karma - are you talking to websites again? this website says 'free credit scores'. oh. credit karma! yeah, it's really free. look, you don't even have to put in your credit card information. what?! credit karma. really free credit scores. really. free. credit karma, i love you!. good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box." 7:45 here on this monday morning. futures indicating what could be another up day for the stock market. no big boom in the futures. but we've talked about this before. if we finish higher today, guys, this will confirm it has been the strongest 30-day rally for the stock market in more than 60 years at least based on short-term moving averages. >> do we need to make it through the day to finish that? >> i've got to get the final number from jon than because he'd been talking about this for a week and a half. and basically we did it on friday. if we do it again today, we tied the 60-year record friday. in closes above the moving average. it's wonky, i know. but if we finish higher today, it will be one of the strongest 30-day stock market rally in human history. and it's done it without a 500-point up day. that's the reason? >> yeah. you're all wonk. >> it's okay. i've been called a lot worse. another well known sports name speaking out on gambling. dallas mavericks owner mark cuban, he who is shy and reserved, has never been one to mince his words. he strongly agrees with nba commissioner adam silver arguing that sports betting should be legalized throughout the country. cuban predicts this will happen within three to five years. i know the state of new jersey is greatly hoping although they got a negative ruling from a judge a couple days ago. but new jersey with five closed casinos in the last month and a half, they need help. we're talking travel this morning because 46 million americans are traveling for thanksgiving this year. 2/3 are traveling by plane and flying. more expensive this year too. airfare costs are up 2% this year, this thanksgiving compared to last year. and flaying will cost even more for christmas and new year's. joining us now, the editor in chief of yahoo! travel. morning to you. >> morning. >> help us here. looks like costs are going up on airlines in certain locations. going to california looks awful from new york. but then hotels seem to be worse in certain other places. tell us about sort of the airfare worse. >> they are. here's the deal. it's cold. it's gross out. and people want to go somewhere warm. the airlines and hotels know this. so you've got places like los angeles, they're up 46% in hotel bookings. orlando is also way up. anything that's warm and kind of attractive to go to right now, it's a little booked out. >> if you have not booked, what are the days that we should be traveling on forgetting about the weather because we hear it might be miserable on wednesday and thursday this week. >> you know what? you're going to have a bit of an issue. if you do not want to travel on the actual days. so the only days you're going to get a deal on, this is for airfare. if you're willing to travel on thanksgiving. if you're willing to travel on christmas or on new year's eve. at this point, you're just a little out of luck. unless you want to book on december 1st for christmas or new year's cyber monday you might get a deal. >> do you have a trick on when to actually go online to book the airfare. there's always these -- i don't know if they're myths or real. like tuesday night at midnight. i don't know what the deal is. do you know what we're talking about? >> i know exactly what you're talking about. some people always say tuesday. but then there's a myth of a sunday. you know what? the real deal is you got to book early. you got to book four to six months out. and then you're going get a sweet deal. if you're waiting until now, oops. >> what about a sweet deal on hotels? is there anything i can do? talk to the manager? what am i supposed to do? >> besides slipping him a twenty, absolutely. you can go to places like kayak, everyone has got -- if you're a little flexible with your dates, you can always click the alert me with the fares and the bookings. they can tell you when it goes down. i'd say wait until cyber monday and really just hold your breath. >> looks like you go to chicago for cheap though. or is that just because it's cold. >> i wonder why. the windchill factor. >> dallas looks like dallas down 4%. why do you think that is? dallas you'd think people would show up at? no? >> it doesn't have that beach. i think it just depends where people are going and where they want to go after. because, you know, a lot of people are using the shoulder weekend to book in extra days. >> i have one last shoulder question for you. did you look at christmas week this year? christmas week and new year's string in where they land. if people are going for two weeks this year or only one week. you know what i'm talking about? >> i know exactly what you're talking about. i'm betting it's going to be a ten dayer. and it's great. >> the best kind paula, thank you for joining us this morning. this was fun. >> thanks for having me. >> paula, before you go away, it's brian sullivan. we had the weather company on earlier today and they said we could get half a foot of snow in the northeast one of the heaviest travel days of the e year. what would a giant snowstorm on the heaviest travel day of america do to american travel? >> yeah. i would say bring a bag lunch. because you're going to be stuck. >> and is a sleeping back at the chesapeake bay house. get a roy rogers. >> there's a reason i'm making people come to new york this year instead of going home to ohio. >> good thing kernen is not here. he would have gotten up a uppity and complained. >> i love ohio. i'm just saying they're coming to me. >> what town in ohio? >> cincinnati. >> that's a double whammy. >> bengals. >> and they got a win. >> i know kpp you believe it? >> kernen was off the bandwagon. >> never swear off my bengals. >> paula, thank you. this morning we should make a quick note. yahoo! has a content sharing partnership with cnbc. still to come this morning, stocks to watch. mockingjay came in at $123 million. that makes it the top box office take for this year. but it's still below expectations. find out how it will impact shares of lionsgate right here on "squawk box." ♪ welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. "mockingjay part 1" raking in $123 million. that is down from the 2012 debut. it was the biggest opening of the year for any movie. check out shares of lionsgate this morning. you can see they're down about 75 cents. that's down by about 2.25%. an analyst today said he thinks the brand is well positioned. >> you know what they say in hollywood. andrew you'd know more, but they always say there's box office and then bank. box office is good, bank is somebody that's a guarantee. is it fair to say right now that jennifer lawrence is bank? >> close to bank. >> i heard over the weekend somebody comparing her saying it's fine to say her name in the same breath as meryl streep which i think is a stretch yet. >> to me it's expectations management at its best. that was a great opening for a movie that people love, for a franchise people love. >> what would you have to pay jennifer lawrence to sell one of your products? what would a celebrity endorsement of that level cost to a company? >> i've seen some endorsements not for my products because i'm in nearby markets. but you could make $5 million just for standing behind something for five minutes that is allowed to be used for one month. >> "hunger games" would fit perfectly with crock pots. >> that's great. it's so funny. i don't know if you've been to japan. if you go to japan, you see actors here that never do -- like brad pitt is hocking products on japanese television like buy whiskey. i don't know if he did -- >> the "lost in translation" movie was based on that. >> you can't put it on youtube. these giant stars will do things there that they won't do here. >> go back to great brands that took off because somebody did. i mean mr. joe dimaggio, mr. coffee. tom cruise with ray bans. there are pivotal points where brands get new life or take off. >> they didn't got paid. they just wore them. >> you never know. >> and bmx bikes, i used that ride that japanese bike. i wanted to ask. i was home alone friday with my new kid. watched "silver linings playbook." it was a great movie. i was getting choked up. >> watch the archery business tip up and then fade off again. >> and you have a piece of it. >> i don't. >> we got to roll. coming up, we've got a short week for wall street. but is santa claus on the way or did he already leave gifts for investors? we've got that when "squawk box" returns in just a moment. i am never getting married. never. psssssh. guaranteed. you picked a beautiful ring. thank you. we're never having kids. mmm-mmm. breathe. i love it here. we are never moving to the suburbs. we are never getting one of those. we are never having another kid. i'm pregnant. i am never letting go. for all the nevers in life, state farm is there. the bulls look to make it six weeks in a row. a breakdown of what you can expect in this week's trading. bucking the buyback backlash. cliff robin telling us where he's going to put his money to work now. and the sweet smell of success. how yankee candle is looking to scientifically spread cheer this holiday season. the company's ceo joins us as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc, first in business worldwide. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and brian sullivan. if you're getting ready to go over the river and through the woods for thanksgiving, you might want to get an early start. snow expected in the new york city area. the i-95 corridor and airports up and down the east coast could see big delays. plan accordingly, ladies and gentlemen. not good. i hate this news. we just found out this morning for those of us traveling on wednesday, look out. also what's happening in the business world. ministers are set to gather on thursday for opec. some see oil prices dropping towards $60 a barrel if the group doesn't cut output. we been watching crude oil prices today and they've been under a little bit of pressure. wti down $76.23. and brent hovering at $80 a barrel. a new survey by market today says companies hiring investment plans are at their weakest level in five years which is really hard to get your head around. >> concerning every other survey says we're at the highest level in five years and everybody's more optimistic. >> and considering what we hear from executives like martin. >> i don't understand. >> who are they serving? >> i don't know who they're serving. it's true. >> most of the executives we've heard from have been very optimistic saying things are improving. >> my confidence in surveys is at an all-time low. >> based on what you heard just from that survey. >> also breaking this morning we should tell you about a scary from symantic. they found malware circulating throughout the world. it appears it's being used for spying. the malware was likely created by a government agency of course that begs the question, which government? and we are less than 90 minutes now away from the first opening bell on a shortened week in wall street. s&p futures up about four points. if we finish higher by a couple points higher in the s&p 500 it will tie the longest, strongest short-term rally in the history of the u.s. stock market. no hyperbole here. let's check out the markets in europe at this hour as well. majority of them are up. france and germany are higher. the ftse is down but by .1%. a story outside the world of business that everybody is keeping an eye on. ferguson, missouri. nightly protests continuing as we await a grand jury decision. >> we're at the epicenter of the protest from august when michael brown was shot and killed not far from here. you can see behind me the sam's meat market that was looted back in august. it's all boarded up. all the businesses -- most of them, anyway, are boarded up. as you can see it's quiet now. sort of a typical monday morning. here's a taste of what's been going on othver the weekend. there had been protests, largely peaceful. there was one in the shah neighborhood where another teenager who was armed was killed about a month ago. was shot about a month ago by police and protesters calling attention to that. but again largely peaceful. only sporadic arrests over the weekend. and none last night. nonetheless, the tension is, indeed, building. you can see the preparations going on. not just the boarded up building. barricades on the police headquarters in ferguson and the justice center in clayton where the grand jury is set to meet. here's the latest. we do expect that the grand jury will meet today. that's been widely reported. but it doesn't mean they're going to make a decision. in the meantime there is planning certainly for a decision. news conferences including from the prosecutor who said he plans to release or seek the release of the evidence if there is not an indictment. but we know from the court that there has been no formal motion for that yet. nonetheless, a lot of tension building here. ferguson is very much on edge. back to you. >> scott cone, thank you very much. let us get back to the stock market. it is a shortened week because of thanksgiving, but a big week for economic data. on wednesday jobless claims, durable goods, and personal income will be released. steve leisman joining us to look at the preview of the big numbers. what are you watching? >> i want to talk about what happened last week which was the big easings by central banks. comments by mario draghi along with a cut by peoples bank of china. the latest round of easing, sort of furrowed brows of concern. there's worry that the easing and stimulus policies that worked in the u.s. may not be so good for japan. saying japan needs people, not tax breaks. by accelerating the pace, they merely bring forward the day when it can no longer service its own debt. and mike england at action economics says it's a race to the bottom. just when the fed thought it was safe to end qe, the rest of the globe resumed policy. another chimes in calling the policies warranted. he says he expects rate cuts elsewhere in asia. that's something to watch out for in the weeks ahead. but there's not all that much time to worry about the rest of the world because we have a ton of data crammed into tuesday and wednesday this week. brian started to talk about dallas fed survey. the q3 gdp number is what everyone will look at. it was down as long as 3% but they ramped it up to $3.233%. consumer confidence. we're going to look at that. jobless claims on wednesday instead of thursday. and that's big day. we're going to be working hard that day. durables, personal income, consumer spending, consumer sentiment, and new home sales. and no, thankfully, fed speak in there this week. they're beginning their holiday hibernation. if we could turn to our guest host very quickly. are you confident the policies in europe will turn around the consumption side of the economy there? >> it's a more mature environment in europe, but i think the reality is the continued easing is only going to help. we feel pretty good about europe. it's not going to have the same type of growth characteristics as america. and the base is a little thinner. the retail base. but at the end of the day, yeah. it's going to be better. and it can't do anything other than help. >> we care. right? because we're cnbc. our viewers care because they watch cnbc. but i've never been at a dinner with my friends sitting around talking and somebody talking about yellen and draghi. do you believe the average consumer thinks don't worry janet yellen is going to save us. >> no. people go shopping at walmart don't care what fed policy is. most don't invest in the stock market. what they want is there is jobs. and at the end of the day, if they have jobs then they'll spend. i think it's no different in europe. >> you think the europeans trust draghi? >> i think you ask an interesting question. i don't think the consumer knows fed policy up front. i think they know it in their head. they know that interest rates are low and falling or high and rising. they understand what's happening with inflation. i think those things are the things that central bank wants the consumer to know about. what's going on in the broad economy. and that's kind of where the central bank meets. >> for example, this brother-in-law is a realtor. best year ever this year. so he knows. >> where is he a realtor? >> maryland he knows interest rate policy because of his business. >> and people know interest rates. and in fact, there's even some data that show people know within $10,000 the value of their home. they're very up on that kind of stuff. they have a sense if prices of our guests' goods are rising or falling. they have a sense of whether or not they need to buy to save a buck or they can wait until tomorrow. and that's the whole inflation/deflation dynamic. and the question is whether or not it can be stemmed in europe and in japan. and there's a lot of thinking that we have fewer underlying structural problems than they have in europe and japan with the consumer, with the whole openness of the economy, with regulation. we have our problems, don't get me wrong. we're in a place that at least over a period of time, perhaps this easy monetary policy can have an effect. >> let's continue this conversation, bring in another couple voices on this. welcome to both of you. liz ann, let's start with you. talk about b what you see happening. what's happening and can it continue? >> well, to start with the economy, a lot of talk about housing. you've got the bract finally kicking in. which has been missing in this recovery. you add that to the fixed investment part of the economy, capital spending and you see much less fiscal drag. i think you could finally see the overall economy growing at the same pace as the private sector has been over the last couple of years. which is a good backdrop for the market. we're not going to get a boom nor are we going to get a boom in earnings. what a lot of investors forget is the best environment for the stock market. we know the whole goldilocks on the economy actually non-boom kind of earnings are very positive backdrop for the market too. and with valuations not stretched. i think we're still in good shape. >> would you agree with that? you think it's good news? >> primarily. there's a few things interesting about this recovery. i agree with liz ann. this steady earnings growth is a very benign revegime for the market. and in some ways the slow growth economy has flattered the stock market. you think about the fact that interest rates remain close to historical lows. wage growth remains muted. it's going to pick up a bit in 2015 but still stay somewhat slow. one of the bear arguments over the past three or four years is that margins have to revert. we've seen them remain quite high. i think part of the vn that the slower growth economy has allowed them to remain profitable because of the cost of capital and labor remaining cheap. >> all right. let's -- martin has a question. >> cost of labor remains cheap. do you see -- you know, we see in jarden and other businesses we've been involved in a movement towards more pressure on wages for more wage inflation. and obviously that's going to create a better backdrop for employment base and wealth of middle and lower income americans. do you see that as something that's occurring in 2015/2016. >> i think it's -- i'm sorry. >> russ you first and then liz ann. >> i think the wage issue is interesting. look, if we see a continuation of this environment where the u.s. is creating 200,000-plus jobs a month, i think there will be some acceleration in wages. but there are two caveats. the first of which where there has been pressure on middle income families for many years. this is not simply a function of the crisis. to some extent that will continue. and the way that manifests itself is i think we're going to see a significant divergence. there will be individuals with skill sets where wages will rise quite rapidly. a lot of middle income households, they're still going to see slower wage growth than the historical average. because of many of the secular forces. >> well, i agree absolutely. i don't think we're going to get back to the kind of wach growth everybody would like. there's a couple of caveats. most indicators are starting to kick in. the unemployment is within a couple of tenths from getting to a point where you've seen that in the past. the good news, too, if you break out overall hourly earnings, the nonsupervisory is actually better. and if you look at broader measures of wage growth, that looks good. and a lot of the surveys particularly from the nfib saying, you know, companies that have planned to raise compensation are starting to kick in. so i agree that we don't have a boom, but we're starting to see this stack up to get a little bit more of a lift. >> and liz ann, do we talk enough -- and maybe we fail in this respect -- about the impact of the job market on investing. as millions go back to work over the past years, a percentage of those people again will once again begin contributing to their 401(k) plans. if we have 2 million people contributing to 401(k) plans in the next five to ten years, that's going to add some change. >> i agree with you. i think that's one of the missing pieces of people who do analysis and focus on the baby boomers. sometimes the way the questions are asked, you think once the last baby boomer retires, that's it. there's nobody left. and the echo boom is not only $8 million to $10 million bigger than the boomers. but we're nvtsing at a younger age. when i started in this business in the mid-80s. i had to make a decision to become an investor by opening an ira. >> we've got to go, i know, but i love what you just said. what we forget is the demographic cliff is going to be terrible the next ten years. but 15 years, there's more millennials than boomers. >> they don't invest the same way. that's why we keep looking at these changes and how millennials invest. >> yeah, but they change also. you ask a 24-year-old, but when they're 34 they may look at it differently. >> thanks both for joining us this morning. coming up, we are going to size up economic growth. martin franklin of jarden has his pulse on the economy. and we'll find out if america is on track for growth. also a bit of a reputation for tearing apart companies to make them their own. one activist investor tries to work with the company to improve shareholder value. and then the sweet smell of success. get your berry on, everybody. yankee candle ceo is going to join us. futures are up. could be another big monday on "squawk box." we're back after this. it's monday. a brand new start. your chance to rise and shine. with centurylink as your trusted technology partner, you can do just that. with our visionary cloud infrastructure, global broadband network and custom communications 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and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. well, this story will come as no surprise to our listeners and viewers already in the upper midwest. but get this. the shipping season for the year is already coming to an early end on the upper mississippi river. the reason is ice. this is said to be the season's earliest closing in nearly 50 years. it's bad news for farmers. many of whom still have their goods and need to find other ways to get their crops from minnesota, new orleans, and the ports. look at that. ice on the mississippi is thick. it is just -- i've got friends in upper wisconsin. it's about 0 degrees. not good. >> once it's done, it's done for the year, right? forget it. >> i don't know what they're going to do. watch kirby corp. i don't know if it will impact. but the rail companies have had a good year. this may help them in a big way. our guest host martin franklin. last time he was on back in june he said we'd get between 2% and 3% gdp with numbers coming out tomorrow, let's talk more about where he sees growth heading. are you still -- >> yeah. >> you're not changing? >> no. higher end of the ranks. >> and where are you going to be for next year? >> i'm going to be -- because we're going to be talking about this i suppose next year. my guess is it's going to be around 3% again. >> 3% again. we talked earlier about wage inflation. i think there are a lot of things that give impetus to continued momentum. >> where are you on the stock market? do you invest in the stock market? >> i don't invest in the stock market. i have a handful of investments and they're all companies that i'm deeply involved in. and so for me my exposure is satisfactory to be in businesses i think i can influence they're outcomes. to me it's just a distraction. >> because you don't -- just because. do you have a view on where the market is? >> yes. you know, i would say it's not my expertise at all. i work with -- i look at intrinsic value businesses. as long as rates stay low, i think valuation is going to continue to be strong. >> your businesses are consumer businesses. so you're very directly tied to the economy, very directly tied -- >> but i'm involved in other companies. so i see sort of the manufacturing side of a platform of specialty products. which is now, you know, quite a substantial business. and so i do see a broader spectrum. >> what do lower oil prices mean for that business? for the specialty chemicals? >> for the particular business we're in, it doesn't mean a lot. but overall for economic activity, we do make things like products that you use in manufacturing automotive parts. so obviously to the extent auto production stays high, it'll be good for that business. >> okay. we're going to continue that conversation with martin. we have a couple other guests we're going to bring on. i want to check on buybacks in a minute. so we'll be back with martin in a bit. when we return, cliff robbins on where he's investing right now. and later, balsam and cedar autumn leaves, you know the names and scents. the ceo of yankee candle will talk to us about the sweet smell of business success. also something you should check out. it's something that could be right out of a science fiction film, and yes, it is real. we will tell you what it is after the break. are finally over, it's time to get to work fixing our long-term national debt to help build a stronger economy. with a solid fiscal foundation, we can create more jobs, invest more in innovation and infrastructure, and make america more competitive, giving our kids a better future. a bipartisan solution to our long-term debt means more growth today, more opportunity tomorrow. and the time to start is now. just take a closer look. it works how you want to work. with a fidelity investment professional... or managing your investments on your own. helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. and save on taxes where you can. so you can invest in the life that you want today. tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. call or come in today for a free one-on-one review. we shows you a picture before we went to break of a very strange looking creature. check out the video of this thing. scientists exploring the depths of monterey bay have captured rare footage of a deep sea angler fish. otherwise known as the black sea devil. the encounter occurred 2,000 feet below the surface and it is very rarely seen. it looks big and scary. it is actually only 3.5 inches long. remember how that thing chased around nemo's dad and dori. this footage is the first ever of a sea devil in its natural habitat. coming up when we return, businesses making headlines. cliff robbins ceo of blue harbor group. take a look at u.s. equities at this hour. we're back in just a moment. toothbrush... sweater... extra sweater... headphones, sleeping mask... oh, and this is the xfinity tv app. he can watch his dvr'd shows from where ever he wants. hey. have fun, make some friends. alright. did i mention his neck pillow? (sniffs pillow) watch your personal dvr library where ever you go. with the x1 entertainment operating system. welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. it's about 8:30 here in the east. glad you could join us. here's what's making headlines this morning. dow component united technologies getting a new ceo. he has retired effectively immediately. that stock down about 1% this morning. a big oops from aruba networks. the company says it accidentally published financial information on its website last week that was both incomplete and unaudited and therefore obviously not intended for external release. yes. that's not good. >> these are our earnings, never mind? >> whatever it was. here you can. it was posted to the world. gasoline prices fell 10 cents over the past two weeks. they are now at a four-year low. according to the lundberg survey, the average price for gas is $2.84 per gallon. the only reason we do that story in the lundberg survey is to make others envious. because i have seen people in hawaii and parts of california who are still in the high $3 range. if you have to suffer living on maui, we're going to make fun of you for the low gas prices. p.s., you still win because you live on maui. our next guest citizen built his name on the street for being a friendly activist. cliff robbins. blue harbor has 3 $.3 billion in sas sets. good morning. >> good morning. >> so the question -- i want to talk to you -- we can talk about activism, but i want to talk about buybacks. we teed this up before the commercial break you think the buybacks are getting a bad wrap these days. >> i do. there are a lot of reasons companies do buybacks that are incorrect. it's wrong ta buy back your stock to signal support or returning capital to stock hoelgders. the real reason if companies are trading at a big discount to intrinsic value. that could be a safe and high return value. >> but when you look at the number of companies that are buybacks right now, you have to imagine what percent they're doing it for the right reasons and what percent for the wrong reasons. certainly there are companies doing buybacks for the wrong reasons. their stock may not be undervalued or might not have confidence. but when we find a company trading at intrinsic value, buybacks can create a ton of stockholder value. particularly if we're investing for two or three years at a time. we can see that return. i think companies should be out there buying their stock when they're convinced that the stock is undervalued and they have confidence. >> on companies with buyback plans, how should the executives be kpen said sated? so many want the share price to go up. part of a buyback program is often to continue to press the stock higher. >> look, buybacks are an investment. a company is making an investment in their own shares. that is going to pay off over multi-years. i don't think you're seeing short-term impact from buybacks. >> but make sure the managers are paid on the net income level, not an earnings basis. >> i would argue there's nothing like a line of management interest in shareholders. so why create a disincentive for that? at the end of the day, a buyback for management is they probably like the management. and they have a really good inside view of the intrinsic value of their business. so, you know, it's the right management tool if used appropriately. >> let's not dance around it. the reason we're asking about this is because ibm has been maligned for its position to buy back shares and borrowing money to do that. can you comment specifically on it? >> i can't comment specifically on ibm. but any company should only buy back shares if they're trading high to intrinsic value. >> i would say ginny rometty does go along with that. >> if she turns out to be right, it will be powerful for ibm. >> but one of the tools you use is you go into companies and tell them they should be buying back their stock. my question is sometimes a company will announce, for example, that they're going to pursue a buyback plan that could last years. and it appears to me that it might make sense in year one to be pursuing the buyback plan. might even make sense in year tw. but at some point, nobody then looks to say does it make sense in year three or four or five. >> just announcing a buyback plan is not what we're after when we think our company shares are undervalued. we want it done and we want it done now. price matters a ton. the buyback may make sense today. they may not make sense one, two, three years down the road. so we want to see our companies doing buybacks do asrs, do dutch tenders. price matters a ton. zblit makes me frustrated that buybacks are seen as the most effective use of capital these days. why is that the most useful of shareholder money? >> every company needs to weigh a buyback. there are companies to share and are very over valued where they should be paying large dividends. >> or pay their employees more maybe. >> why wouldn't you prefer a dividend? >> when a company's shares are fully valued or they have capital where there aren't better uses for the capital, a special dividend can make sense. but when a company shares are trading at a big discount to intrinsic value and a company can make a great investment, that's when they should do a buyback. rack space is a good example of this. it's a large company we're invested in and are the lead stockholder. this company shares are undervalued. and we say to them, okay, you're turning down this offer. we want you to demonstrate the conviction. they just announced the buyback including an asr. and that's a very powerful way that this company is going to create stockholder value. >> dan lobe got some board seats on dow chemical. one of the big debates that you mentioned was this issue of whether the directors should be paid not just by dow but separately by dan lobe and get an additional advisory fee. how do you as a shareholder feel about that? >> i'm of mixed views on that. not speaking about dow or third point specifically. but i do think that directors who are on the board represent all the constituencies. and i think that there could be conflicts if directors have compensation away and separate from the board. >> that to me gives an outize advantage to certain shareholders and not to others. >> but if it's disclosed as it would be in this case and all stockholders understand it, then it's fair. >> but they don't get to vote on it. >> we have put people on boards. we do not pay them independently. >> martin, how do you feel about it? >> my view is it's -- you create a conflict of interest you don't really need. if they're going to be on a proxy, pay them up front. that's probably the safer way to do it. >> we're going to leave the conversation there. always great to have you here. he is the friendly activist. >> he's a friendly guy. >> i am a friendly guy. >> i don't know where you get the leverage if you're so friendly, by the way. >> well, i think being friendly is important but having ideas that help companies are more important than being friendly. one thing i really observed is all this confidence building the board rooms. ceos and companies. i'm really seeing an increase in confidence. >> what was the study we just talked about in the past hour? >> a company called market that was talking about a crisis. >> i'm not getting that. it was like oh the lowest in five years, every other survey. and i was half joking with my confidence in surveys is at an all time low. >> ceos have confidence and that's giving activists a full tool box to do buybacks, help splitups, mna. there's a tremendous amount of corporate activity brewing. that's coming from the one missing ingredient which was this lack of corporate confidence. but it is there now. >> if it's there now, does that is mean we lead to more capital expenditures? we lead to more wage increases? >> that's going to lead to a lot of good things. you're going to see not only more buybacks, you're going to see more mna on the buy and sell side. companies are really stepping forward. and i'm -- it's palpable out there. >> so brian belski told us he thinks we're in the midst of a 20-year bull market run. we're about six years into it. does that sound viable to you? >> i can't tell you about six years or 20 years, but the next two to three years look very good from our vantage point. companies have resources, access to chief financing. they've got the confidence. you're going to see a lot more corporate activity. worth more in pieces than in whole. you're going to see companies splitting up. a lot of activity. >> i saw this. there are 5,000 companies for people to invest in. companies just get overlooked. when cliff comes into a business, part of the success that helps the argument up front is just focus the attention on business that some people have just, you know, overlooked. >> and i just don't view buybacks as a sign of confidence. building a $500 million factory to sell more goods is more confidence to me. but i'm just a journalist. >> thank you. speaking of giant factories making stuff, did you know that most yankee candles are made in massachusetts? that is right. in fact, candles, i'm told, can make the perfect holiday gift. the ceo of yankee candle helps us make scents of their business. plus your chance to own a piece of movie history. that's right. something from "the wizard of oz." we're back smelling great after this. act i. scene 3. open port twenty-two-oh-one-seven on the firewall for customer db access. install version two-point-three of db connector and ensure verbose flag is set in case of problems. (clapping sound) isn't the cloud supposed to make business easier? get the one that can connect to the systems that you already have. today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. starts at 6:30 a.m. - on the (vo) rush hounose.und here but for me, it starts with the opening bell. and the rush i get, lasts way more than an hour. (announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we've built powerful technology to alert you to your next opportunity. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. ♪ welcome back, everybody. jarden acquired yankee candle company for $1.75 billion. since then it has become the company's third largest brand. joining us right now to talk about the selling season is hope margala. she is president and ceo of yankee candle company. and our guest host still with us, martin franklin. welcome to the program. >> thank you. >> this has to be your super bowl. this is the time of year when you get how much in sales? how much of your revenue, how much of your revenue come in now? >> it is a huge time for us. we're a great gift and we're part of a lot of people's family traditions and holidays. if you look historically it's been about 40% of our sales. majority in the fourth quarter. we think we're well positioned this year to make sure we are maximizing all of that. >> and when you say well positioned, we know martin's already told us, he thinks the consumer is improving. is this about new types of product that are coming out? >> for us it's about innovation. both in product and fragrance. >> it's mostly females. >> 80% are females. but there are some men. >> yes, there are, and let's talk about that. i'm offended by some of your mandles. man candles. let's get to your male product lineup. these are actual scents. camouflage, on tap, mantown whatever the heck that is, and the bacon scented candle. "mad mone mm bacon. what is mantown? >> mantown is actually men's fine fragrance type of fragrance. it is a number one seller of all of our man candles. >> what is camouflage? dirty socks? >> just a fresh outdoor green scent. >> but you can't see it. >> i have to admit. when i go into one of your stores, i am tempted. i buy a lot of them. but i've never bought anything online. because it's the scent, the touch, the feeling that grabs me. what do you do with online shopping with more people shopping online? >> we have a very substantial online business. some of our tried and true customers that come back time and time again. people can invoke the feelings of fragrance online with commentary. our direct consumer business is actually on par with most retailers. >> what percentage of your customers who buy online have never bought a candle in store? meaning how many of them bought in store, smelled it, like it, know they like it and now have used the online venue? >> majority of it are consumer who is have purchased in the store. >> your biggest competitor has to be bath and body works. how do you shape them up as your competition? >> we create that special feeling of home. we've been around for awhile. and we're all about home and making our home feel more special at the holiday season. not really about her body or lotions. it's more about her home. >> well, hope, i want to thank you for coming in today. i know we have some of those scents over there. i think we'll take a shot of them. >> i hope they have mantown over there. i'm curious. i've been to mantown, and it is not pleasant. >> we'll make sure we get you one. >> i'm thinking high school football locker room scent. it was just not -- >> mantown fixes that. >> okay. that was boytown. teentown which was not a good place. don't make that. >> we won't. up next, what can be better than receiving a wizard's gift? how about winning the auction for a piece of movie history. and no it is not the red slippers. we'll find out what it is in just a couple minutes. as we head to break, a look at what is trending on twitter this morning. o'dell beckham's amazing catch. and no doubt "squawk box" is fifth. we're back after this. in a world that's changing faster than ever, we believe outshining the competition tomorrow quires challenging your business inside and out today. at cognizant, we help forward-looking companies run better and run different - to give your customers every reason to keep looking for you. so if you're ready to see opportunities and see them through, we say: let's get to work. because the future belongs to those who challenge the present. big auction today in new york for a piece of movie history. but do you have the courage to make a bid? the cowardly lion costume can be yours if the price is right. the costume from the classic film will be put on the auction block as a part of tcm presents. there is no place hollywood. other items include sam's piano from "casablanca" and clark gable's riding jacket. >> i did hear clark gable -- it was b.o., it was bad breath. >> you can get merrill lynn monroe's gown. a second one sold at auction for a million bucks. jim cramer joins us this morning. your thoughts on lionsgate, look likes it's going to open down by a dplollar after "hunger games." it was shy of expectations. what do you think of the stock? >> two-thirds filled when i went saturday, very disappointing. how much pouting can jennifer lawrence do? a bad word of mouth movie. though it was big movies, the series deserved better than that. it should have been a trilogy and i think people were left wanting and thought that this was the worst of the three, by far. so the -- it surprised me it even made this much. >> okay. you look at that as an upside it made that much. you think it will make up for it in the final installment? >> the final installment better have action. "mockingjay" the second best day for the first one. when you walk out, why did we have to see that? >> the book was slow. our kids were worried, we saw it friday opening night, they said the book united states so slwast know how to stretch it into two. >> the best actor passed away. >> jim, it's brian. good morning. i want to say we're thinking about your and your family with your dad. you tweeted out a picture from the eagles' game. did they pay tribute to your pop? >> did they ever. the owner gave me pop's seat, a nice ceremony in his box. they put in nice words on the big board for pop saying, you know, strong until the end and chip kelly offered condolences. team and ownership are extraordinary. howie roseman. you hear the trait about the eagles' family. i was blown away. i was fearing going to the became because that's what we did for years. mr. laureate and his team were incredible. the seat will be put on my set. i was honored and it changed the narrative in a positive way. >> i got the pleasure to meet your father last year. we see where you get. he's a great guy. i tell you what, a long, great life. and he got to see a hell of an eagles season, too. this year great. they put on a big show. our thoughts to your and your family. >> loved chip, the management, loved howie. they -- they did him well. and 92 years old. as i said, the best day was our last day, by far, the best day together. >> jim, you and i talked about this over the weekend, anybody hasn't seen it yet, check out jim's column. purely to his father, wrote it to the street.com friday. >> i gave a eulogy on our show, becky. that's available on twitter, too. >> anybody who hasn't seen it check it out. incredibly moving, pays tribute to a great man. thank you. when we return, the buzz story of the morning, if you missed nbc's sunday night football shame on you. you missed the catch of the year. we'll show it to you after the break. a look at european markets at this hour. you're seeing green situation in germany and france, slightly down marriaginally in the ftse . back in a moment. but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running. you are gonna need a wingman. and with my cash back, you are money. forget him. my airline miles will take your game worldwide. what i'm really looking for is -- i got two words for you -- re-wards. ♪ there's got to be better cards than this. [ male announcer ] there's a better way with creditcards.com. compare hundreds of cards from all the major banks to find the one that's right for you. it's simple. search, compare, and apply at creditcards.com. first round's on me. if you went to sleep early last night and missed last night's nfl game on nbc sports do not go into the office without catching about this catch. everyone's going to talk about. you need to know what they're talking about. odell beckham jr., right arm, his hand, grabbed the ball while falling backwardsing second touchdown of the game. twitter verse calling it the greatest catch ever made. catch not good enough to win the game, though. dallas cowboys rallied to win 31-28. romo hitting bryant with a td pass, 61 seconds left for the winning score. we are wearing nice jackets. >> yes, we are. i'm wearing giants blue but not a giants fan. >> how do -- some people say -- do they try to drop the t. >> time for your squawk sound check. a look back at this morning's show. >> we're six years into a 20-year bull, take a deep breath. it's the biggest stealth bull market of my 25-year career. >> you can bet we're not going to get a shutdown before christmas. but we have a fight in january. >> what putin really is worried about is not nato tanks but european union values. >> nonboom kind of earnings, trend-like earnings positive backdrop for the market, too. valuations not stretched, we're in good shape. part of the reason is that the slower growth economy has allowed companies to remain very profitable because the cost of capital and the cost of labor has remained cheap. >> the conversation. let get back to our guest host. we're wearing the high-end line. >> we make an urban line, yours, maybe. >> i like. i like it. >> you like it? >> again, you were telling us at ginting of the show, it's high-end consumers, you think everybody's doing well but high-end consumers are doing the best. >> yes. >> do you see that changing soon? there's a huge discussion about inequality in this country. >> you know, you take a country through a recovery that is trying to be an asset inflated recovery, if you're inflating assets people who benefit the most are people with asset. if you didn't have assets at the beginning of the recovery, you're still in the same place as you were before. so it's -- you know, now you're seeing wage inflation coming into the system, i think that you are going to see some real help with the base. >> a report that came out from wells fargo, the company is saying that it thinks jarden's third quarter organic growth w below 6.4% reported, as a result of two small companies acquired, it was included in organic growth tabulation. the company's not changing outperform rating, it's raising its price target from 72 to 75. are they telling you, the street, anything they didn't know. >> the reality is we've got a clearly defined definition of what organic growth is we buy tiny businesses, truly tiny businesses, look like organic growth, but it's no different than doing a cap x program. that's in your definition. >> valid point but not news. >> no, no not news. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> it's warm, i must say. >> yes. >> it's cold in here. >> it is cold in here. >> street signs 2:00 eastern. >> see you, all of you, tomorrow. join us. now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber along with jim cramer. live from the new york stock exchange. carl quintanilla has the day off. a look at futures on this monday morning. of course, it's a shortened week, if you will. we'll have a half day session on friday, i guess, than what we normally have, after the holiday thursday. there we are. up yet again after a nice day on friday. as for that ten-year note yield, hanging aroundha

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