The next week or something. You didnt say i want this to be for the next seven months. No, not seven months. Its only been two weeks. It has not been two weeks. Three weeks. 3 1 2. 2. 85 . I am so in the money. I couldnt have bought an option any shorter. You could have changed the terms of the deal after we got into the deal. You cant do that. You were right the idea that rates could go lower. Now we have to figure out the market. Yeah. Its concerning, though, i guess this is really the market sitting and taking a look at the jobs number that we got on friday which is well below what had been expected. And taking all this into account with are we ready for tapering and is the economy really there . Youve got goldman. Already were going to be talking about lets keep in mind oh, god, i sound like phil. At the enof the day, 257 is where the dow is. If we build up a lot of fear, and were still above 15,000, thats the way these markets move when theyre in a long when theyre going to keep advancing. Its that slow, sickening decline that you dont notice. If it gets people bearish, thats thats the positive. That was an ugly day yesterday. It was an ugly day yesterday. Europe and asia have been taking their queues from wall street. If you look at the major asian markets overnight, youll see at least at this point the shanghai did okay, but japans nikkei, that was down by about 3 . It was a declose to 500 points. European stocks at least in the early trading this mother are indicated lower. The biggest declines coming from germany dax, dour by 55 points. Dow futures up by about 36 points above fair value. The s p futures are up close to 4 points and the nasdaq is up just over 7 points. As for todays market tests, we have earnings season officially open for play. Jpmorgan and wells fargo are set to report Quarterly Results before the bell. Analysts are looking for jpmorgan to post earnings on revenue of 23. 7 billion. In the meantime, the consensus calls for wells fargo to earn 98 cents a share with revenue of 20. 7 billion. As for the economy, we do have a few reports of note today. At 7 30 eastern time, the nfib survey of Small Business sentiment. Then at 8 30, we get december retail sales. At 10 00, we get December Business inventories. The markets will be taking queues from both earnings and the economy. That it is. We had a bit of a merger monday, and this is the deal to kick it all off. The soap opera begins now. Charter communications taking its bid from Time Warner Cable directly to investors. It offered to acquire its rival yesterday for a reported 132. 50 a share in cash and stock. You can look at that stock, by the way, over there now trading above that price. Time warner cables board rejected the bid as grossly inadequate. David fabers reported that charter was told they would enjoy a 160 bid share and they want cash. Watch for the Parent Company of universal comcast, as well. Google buying thermostat and smoke alarmmaker nest labs for 3. 2 billion in cash. Its the second largest deal in the tech giants history. We had the ceo of this company on a while ago. They make some really cool devices and suggest where google unlike apple and yahoo and so many others may be going. Samestore restaurants in china rose a lower than expected 1. 2 . The country accounts for more than half of yums operating profits. Joe. Actually, they didnt make that offer yesterday, i dont think. They did that offer came yesterday morning and the letter came out yesterday afternoon. Because it said there was an additional bid that came in december. Right. Charters latest proposal, which it made to time warner in december, was its third private offer to buy the new York Based Company the plans to go public with it maybe is the way to put this. The plan to go public with it happened yesterday. Right. And charter made the offer back in december and then they came the board, you know, looked at it and said no and then time warner went or time warner went public with it yesterday and time warper said no, probably back in december, dont you think . I do not believe that time warner, a, publicly said no, thats not why theyre going public. Its a private offer. No, i just think they didnt engage completely. Well, i dont think theyve engaged at all, which is part of the problem if youre time warner. Time warner says thats not correct. The offer yesterday was made in december and it was the third offer since june. Going back and forth on this. About 20 million directv customers nationwide are without the Weather Channel this morning. They could look out the window. Although its much better to know what is going to happen. Yeah. You want to know whats happening throughout the day and tomorrow morning when you get up for work. You have to have a leap of faith to believe everything. But this is the best of all the weather forecasters. Do we own we do. Okay. It is the best. The midnight eastern deadline for recent negotiations without an agreement. And apple has lost its bid to launch the. The Company Plans too peel and it argued the monitor was aggressively trying to interview top executives, even though his mandate called for him to review the companys antitrust policies 90 days after his appointment. Apple complained about his proposel hourly fee rate of 1,100, arguing it gave him an incentive to push a broad and intrusive and lacy plan investigation, i guess. The other thing is that my real what im thinking is have you noticed how everyone is saying, well, were at three and then were going to 3. 25. Then were going to 3. 5. Its the people that come in here and say rates are headed up. Its the same ones that said for five years it set rates have peaked and then theyre going back up. Theyre always wrong swb so to act like they know and its going to be this orderly move higher. And then this other thing that worries me is the notion that the fed orchestrated this beautiful thing that warnings perfectly. What would throw a wrench in the works is if theyre unable to keep tapering and if we start questioning whether theyre successful. And that would mean you see rates lower and that would be like, oh, my god. More pushing on a string. The economy maybe the Unemployment Rate doesnt continue to go down. Why did it come down with 73,000 jobs . Because more people are out of the workforce. Which is not the way you want it so work. The 7 4 ,000, that was a different survey, too. Both surveys showed some concerning trends. I would say you were right on all of this and for that i would give you a mini bow. Thats a shih tzu bow. You love the bet. Whats her name, the one from Golden Globes . Her name is jackie i thought you watched the entire thing. Jacqueline said some people you didnt read about this yesterday . It was on the nightly news last night with brian. She said a lot of people have done good things in their life and a lot of people gave me a lot. And brian noted last night youre talking about the language. Anyway, she yeah. She noted even even brian noted last night it slipped by the nbc sensors. The same word i just used. I know. But i was missing i got it. And then the other thing, 1900 for the s p. We said, well, who wants that . Some people might sign up for that. Were still okay. The s p where it is, what is it, below 1800 . We wanted 1848. There may come a time where we think, wow, 1900, we might sign up for 1900. If the market consolidates and goes up another 50 points, maybe that would be good. You see, im changing that was an ugly day yesterday. Combined with the jobs report and combined with the first seven days of the month, and combined that none of the people that used to come in saying we need a 10 correction, none of them were taking that any more. Did you notice . They all stopped and they were all saying high Single Digits to low double digits for the year. Now youre ready for your so . I dont know. Well see, right . There is good news out of washington. Congressional negotiates have unveiled a spending bill aimed to prevent another Government Shutdown that bill boosted levels for military programs. But it did not add monies to obamacare. Lawmakers now face a midnight wednesday deadline for new spending authority. They are still meeting a stopgap funding extension. They need to that just to ensure that theres enough time for passage of the spending bill this week because it is expected it could get through by saturday. Right now, its time for the Global Markets report. Karen cho is standing by in london. Good morning, becky. A bunch of global m a deals across the board. Most of the major indices trading in negative territories. The financial sectors, the worst hit this morning. The german stock market, the worst performing industry here in europe. Down 6. 5 . On the french market, down just slightly about 0. 3 . But the International Press is gathering today to listen to what Francois Hollande is going to say about the Economic Strategy for france. Theres been concerns that france is the man of europe. But theyre going to be asking more about this alleged affair with actress julie gayet more than the economic environment in france. Necessarily hy nestle has basic said it left out affluent customers in its strategy and focused on those spending small changes on sweets. So sales in india were growing at about 20 odd percent per year in the past three years. Third quarter last year, sales were growing just 8 . Thats how much nestle has been trading in terms of its strat by. But the link today proving there is money in that premium segment. Take ta look at the performance of the company so far today. 1. 3 higher and this on the news that it grew market shares in all project categories. North america are proving one of the sweet spots for lindt today, sales climbing 8. 6 and on Foreign Exchange markets, a bit of attraction in the sterling today. 1. 6402. We havent held some of the highs of the session. This on the back of inflation, hitting that 3 target that the central bank wants. There is a feeling that Interest Rates will stay lower for longer. Perhaps we wont be the first ones to hike here in the uk. It might be up to janet yellen, guys. Karen, thank you very much. Well check in with you again tomorrow. After fridays disappointing jobs report, will u. S. Employment trends ton a downward slope . Joining us right now with his expectations is lauschman achitan. Weve been with all watching all of this. What about you . Sure, im concerned. Just to get this out of the way, weve made a call and were not budging from that call. 2014, 24 months later now. You have to hold. You have to hold. These economic guys well, im a student of the business cycle. And so i understand that there are major revisions coming. Looking at the data at face value today, if you look at the half a year period from q4 2012 through q12013, you would realize gdp right now is at 0. 6 . And that is only because of a freak boost in agricultural inventories that had to do with the earlier drought. Knowing what the revisions are to gdp data over the last few recessions, theyre on the order youve seen gyrations in gdp data in the revisions that come in the benchmark revisions years later, but on the order of 2 full percentages points to the order of 4 percentage points. Here we are at 0. 6 on face value and if you get rid of agricultural stuff, its at 0. 25 . That is so easy to get revised away. So the epicenter of the recession was at the end of q4 20112 into q11 2013, i know thats not unusual, but what is bothersome is that right now, the consensus is, hey, were taking off, right . Were approaching the velocity. Were going to be growing at 3 or something you were saying in 2014. We just dont see that when were looking at the data, even the december jobs pretend that didnt happen. Its still not there. Are you saying that we never got any of the good growth that we think weve gotten over this last year and a half or two years . No, no, some of that gdp after that may be positive. But the epi center right now looking at the data on face value is that q4 2012, q1 2013 i think thord those will be revised down and youll see that is the epicenter of the recession. So you think the epicenter has happened, we just dont realize it . Yeah. You have jim bullard on sometimes. Recently he put out a presentation talking about 2008, the last recession, and how in august of 2008, from the feds perspective, things were pretty good. It didnt look like there was a recession. There wasnt any negative gdp and the outlook was fairly good. Only now, when you look backwards, do you see the recession began in december of 2007. Thats a point that ive been making for a while. But we knew that a lot sooner. Youre talking about we knew that by 2008, that there were some serious, Serious Problems out there. When . I would say by the fall of 2008. After lehman blew up. I think it was before that. No. Actually, right before lehman blew up. In august of 08, q2 gdp was revised up and the dow rallied. Yeah, but there were plenty of people who say that there were big problems coming. The fed didnt. Look, i dont want to relitigate the recession of 2008. I have a different question. You look at whats happened over the past few years. Fin vesters followed what they said, they would have made a mistake. Was there anything that you look at in your models and say now it depends on which market. In bonds they wouldnt have been as bad why dont you just i dont accept the premise because typically off a bear around the session and 20 of the time you dont have a bear market around sessions. If the fed is targeting the markets as a policy tool, then who are you to fight the fed . And if you look backwards at past recessions where the stock market has gone up during a recession, you see very simple, not exactly great ones, theyre roller coasters, so 1926, 27, you have a recession, stocks go up 30 . Why dont you just go back to a more normalized Participation Rate . Instead of all this, why dont you say if we go back to a normal Participation Rate, wear another 12 unemployment. I dont need i would more or you usic. Lets be even planer than that. We have a jobs report. It gives you a payrolls number and a household number. The two surveys of how jobs are doing in the economy. Theyve been there for a long time and we should look at them. Now, i know a lot of people dont want to accept the december jobs number. Thats fine. Lets pretend it never happened. Look at the trend in jobs on and the prior 12 months. And what you will see is that payroll jobs, youre making 194,000 per month for the prior 12 months. On households, youre making 101,000 jobs per month for the previous 12 months. So household is selling you that you made about 1 million less jobs in the previous 12 months. And so, now while im young. I just had a birthday, i dont want to get another birthday before you get this out. Were getting wrapped in our ear and youre giving me an economic dissertation. Because this isnt straightforward. Youre going to need to hear this. So when you look at the data thats going to get revised, the payroll data will get revised towards the household data. The household data is is showing you a deceleration in jobs growth. Its not what you think it is. So if the consensus is looking for acceleration here, its already not happening. Are we at 6. 7 . No. Because you know people dropped thats the point id make. I would make that the Household Survey is telling you if you look at the households ajusted to be the payrolls, youve lost jobs since the summer. This is all a cyclical comment. Happening inside of a secular weakness, which is going were below we have not made back the jobs. Were not to the peak employment of 2007 yet, right . Are we a million and a half below . Larry summers came out in november and dropped a bomb, right . He says, hey, weve got secular stagnation here. Thats a point weve been making since prelehman that youre not going to get business as usual. And i think a lot of people are hoping that that is about to occur and im afraid in the forwardlooking indicators, in the coincidence data on jobs, its not there. Its just not there. And the fed is stepping back and not going to be artificially juicing things and this Economic Trend continues, you think the markets will fall lower . You know, i dont know because i dont know the i dont know that the fed will be able to pull back as much as they want to. They might have to quote unquote taper, but they might do something else. Following the recession, you had two years going back to andrews point, you made no recommendations about investing in stocks two years ago . You didnt say do or dont . I mean, i would have not invested in stocks based on your forecast. You had neal tescari on here and said, area, theyre targeting the market. If someone like that is targeting the market in 2012, who am i to argue . He doesnt even manage any more. Im not talking about his performance as a manager. Im talking about barging the stock market what did you do with your own money . I managed riskings. So i mean, it sounds like a cliche, but you would be defensively long. You were defensively long honor in this period . It doesnt mean anything other than you try to participate and were watching for the down turn. And if youre a business manager, they dont have demand. Why do you think that prices are so inflation . Why are prices so low . Why does walmart, which sells a tv for 150 last year sell it for one word answer. When can we judge when youre right or wrong . When the data gets revised. Benchmark revisions come in every year. Were two years later, so im just trying to figure out when we can you can check it right now. Look at the household data. Look at the jobs data. You have somebody out there, are they getting a raise . Ask them. Thank you. Thank you for coming in. We look forward to having you back and figure out whats going on. In the meantime, mandatory timeoff apparently trying to a tracked towns to the Financial Service industry. But first, lets get the National Forecast now from the Weather Channels alex wilson. Hey, guys. We have to talk about rain along at this95 corridor. We have form action towards north florida. Heavy showers. Savannah and charleston beginning to move offshore. Youve got more on the way up towards philly and new york. Same story ther