Securities, the gauge rode to a sixweek high. This morning, u. S. Equity futures are indicated up slightly, up by about seven points. S p futures down by over a point. Nasdaq up about a point. And the tenyear note, this is what weve been watching so closely. The tenyear note at some point is yielding 2. 8 . Exactly. Thats been driving the direction for a lot of these things. Moving up yesterday was around 2. 78. But 2. 8 is where people start to sit up and take note. Just under 16,000. Vix at 14. Tenyear, 2. 8 . Im not ready to say anything yet. Are you . No. But you wonder, if you looked at november every time there was a dip, people jumped in and bought. Thats not happening. No, no, bring that last one back up. We cant say anything. Look at that. Does that look any different than anything else . You know whats weird, is the dow had its biggest look at those others. I know. But weve gotten so used to gains. Look at september, look at all, look at june. Down, slightly back up. The dow had its worst day since november 7th. Lets do our job. Lets really get people thinking, wow, markets have been crap. It hasnt been, but three days are you going to see december tends to be the strokest trading month. It may not be. It may not be this year. But weve had strong days coming up to this point. Gasoline prices should have helped. Terry lundgren is selling stuff. And everybody online is selling things. That was up 20 . I dont know if were measuring things properly. There should be an overall if you add them altogether, it should be above last year. Never actually had a down year. Have we . You know, thats a really good question. I want to go back and look. I can look at 10 or 12 years at a time. Ill check that out. I dont remember a down year, but let me go back and doublecheck that before i say it. I have asked many times. I see were going to talk about something that John Williams said. Do we have anything . Anything . There you go. Thank you. Fed expectations are obviously playing into recent moves. In an interview yesterday, San Francisco fed oh, its not oh, never mind. San francisco why would the other guy be talking about the fed, anyway . San francisco fed president John Williams argues that the central bank needs to be more aggressive in providing detail on what would eventually lead it to raise Interest Rates. Wow. Really . He says this will help prevent uncertainty among investorses to rile markets. Theyre all doing back flip toes switch us from bond buying to language for how long we stay at zero. God, you must sit there and say lets do this altogether and were all just like, you know, are we idiots out here . They manipulate us. They came to the conclusion that that is what they need to do. And theyre all on board. Williams suggested that the fed needs to do more to convince investors that rates will stay low long after the fed stops buying bonds. We knew this story. But theyre all on message. It will probably get worse when janet yellen is there. Thats the question, can you convince the consensus when you have a lot of people with differing ideas. With bernanke, if he yelled at me bernanke brings consensus. If yellen got mad at me and started pointing her finger at me, i would shut up. Really . There is someone who can make you shut up . Yeah. Well, i dont know. I might be going if she turned away. But yeah, i would pretend to be. But i think she could be you know, you wouldnt want to get on her bad side, i would think. He seems collegial. But that was one of the best things about him from people that were on the inside say he was very good at building consensus around the table. The question is can yellen do the same. Right. Im scared of you. No, youre not. A little bit. No, youre not. Scared of andrew. No, youre not. Beyond stocks and bonds, the other big story is oil. Opec is meeting in vienna. Iran has they have plans to up the output of a Million Barrels a day in the middle east. Opec production targets are expecteded to remain unchanged at 30 million a day. Steve sedgwick is at the meeting and joining us in the last half hour. The big story yesterday were oil prices because they were up significantly. Crude oil tops 96 after it jumped over 2. That was the biggest up day in about 2 1 2 months. It settled at the highest level since october 31st. 1. 14 to 97. 18. So yeah, all of these gains that we got. A lot of it is coming from this opec stuff, the idea that iran and iraq are going to produce more and thats going to bring a lot more supply. That should go down. Youre right. The weather. I dont know. Theres a blast of cold air coming. Wouldnt that affect natural gas more than crude oil . No, i think crude you see the oil markets move on crude oil. Corporate news, jcpenney november comps rose 10. 1 is . I guess from a low base. That was is second straight month of samestore gains for the retailer. Jcpenney says aggressive discounts and the return of some in house brands brought back some shoppers at the start of the Holiday Quarter and that caused shares to go up a little, back above 10 a share now. Is it possible well look back at 5 or 6 and say where were we . Why didnt we do it . And it says here, tis the season. Is that a word . tis . It is. tis the season, wall street journal is reporting inventories are standing faster than Clothing Stores want. Abercromb abercrombie, gap, victorias secret acknowledged inventory levels are rising. But they call the levels appropriate. Thats what theyre saying, anyway. Meanti meantime, an an lit reports there are mixed signals about what kind of year this is going to be for consumers and retailers at this point. Dennis kozlowski, who was sent to prison eight years ago for looting a company is being released. A new york state parole board tentatively agreed to release him next no. He was once dubbed the poster boy for corporate greed. You bought a 6,000 shower curtain. Remember the pictures . I remember him and the these are scenes from that party. And the vodka was coming out of a guys unit, frozen. I dont know if id want that drink, really. I mean, he lost his wife. Talk about a shakespearean fall, from as high as you can possibly get to as low, to being in prison for that long, i dont know if id have any further comment on eight years. Eight years. And he definitely comingled i guess im not speaking in legal terms, but he seemed to think that shareholders money somehow was his to use. But it was during a period in Corporate America where he was doing rollups and he was creating a mint value for shareholders, he thought, at the time with tyco as they acquired and rolled up all these different endties. A and, you know, you cant put someone in jail just for greed. Unlien liken ron he was using company money. But a lot of guys were. Some people still have great reputations. Thats why you set the bar by saying the prosecutors looked at him and said were going to make an example of him. She visited him once. Just to see she was going to divorce him. He didnt offer him. He mu dug very deep to be able to even get up every day. Im not ready to kick him at this point. No. Eight years, its done. In washington news, all street banks will get a decision about the fate of the volcker rule next week. The rule deals with the controversial deal on banks setting with their own money. It is expected to be passed, but the big banks are waiting to see how much the rule has changed from when the watchdog first proposed it two years ago. Time for the Global Markets report. With ross westgate. Standing by in london. Got a lot of mail and twitter yesterday. My question was, do you wear anything under a kilt if you are a man. And the way i said it was is anything worn under your kilt and you said, no, its all in working order, as if something i was asking you if something was worn down or inoperable or old or useless or sue p superfulous. Basically, thats not if i wear a kilt, im going to wear spanx. Can you wear spanx with a kilt . You dont have a i dont have much of a turn. No. So youre saying just go free balling with the whole i was going to say commando, but okay. All right, ross. With that intro the key for a kilt, joe, is youve got to have stocky legs. Uhoh, no. Mine arent bad because i run. Theyre not bad. Theyre not bird legs, but theyre not okay. No one goes, wow, he was a linebacker or anything. Thats a football term. How about you . You got some stocky legs . Thats why you can wear that not really. But they work better with a kilt, i think. The other thing is, the kilt comes down to where the stocks finish, the hem of the kilt comes down to meet the stocks. So theoretically, you only see a little bit of leg when youre walking quickly or if theres wind or something, if you know what i mean. Youre known to show a little leg, in other words. No. The kilt comes down to the knee. Thats what you should be doing. Thats good. Well talk more about this, but no, we wont. Right now lets bring you up to speed with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600. Five to four decliners outpacing advancers at the moment. Lots coming out stateside as we know today. The breakdown of the pmis show a sharp divergence in the eurozone between germany and france in particular. German composite pmi, french reading at 48 is in contraction. In fact, its only been twice above 50 in the last 21 months. Italy is still deep in contraction, as well. Those two countries account for 40 of gdp. Spain, on the other hand, is in expansion with this activity, proposing a real dilemma for the ecb as it looks at increasingly healthy economy. And an Italian Economy that is now facing 10 quarters of contraction. But stocks are fairly flat. Take a look at the sector breakdown. Youll see banks and financials are the weakest here. Weve been more fines just being announced for the European Commission for the those banks involved in fixing in libor and yen libor rates, as well. Eight institutions took part in this and six have been fined a total of 11. 7 billion euros. Deutsche down about 1 today. Its bag a total of 725 million euros. Rbs is paying a total of 391. It colluded in both of those, as well. Socgen was involved. Jpmorgan and citi fined a total of around 80 million and 70 million republspectively. But these guys are paying out more money. Back to you. So we will see him, right . So plan on that, ross. Well sigh you in a month, i guess. Youll be there. The last time i saw ross, we had dessert together. We skipped the meal and went right to dessert. Literally. My family was there. He picked me up im not saying anything not that theres anything wrong with that. But we went to the eye. I was barely able to eat after having been on that thing. But then we went ewe. Usually we get together for drinks in davos. Joe, are you going . Im not going this year. What . Thats why. Why . Because joe is. Okay. Ive been saying all the time thats one of the best parts about it is getting to hang out with you. Well, look youre right. We dont want it to be all about sex appeal for cnbc. If both of us went, i dont think wed get we wouldnt get anything done. We shouldnt be in the same place, right . There would be no snow. We cant be in the same place because some people think were the same person. I dont know how were doing this. This is magic. This is magic. Ross, thats incredibly dis appoi appointing. Well talk. Maybe you cant leave the country now or maybe youre not allowed in switzerland now. Ive been going for over a decade. So there comes a point when somebody else gets a turn. Oh, somebody else gets a turn. Oh, boy. Okay. Becky has been before. Becky has been. Andrew has been. Joe now youre going. Im worried about the stockholm syndrome. Hes afraid hes going to turn into youre in switzerland, its okay. Ross, we will continue this conversation off air and well see you back here again tomorrow morning. In the meantime, with three weeks until christmas, this is historically the season for a bullish view on the markets. Can we expect a strong santa claus rally this year . Joining us now is lou brien, strategist at wdi trading group. Chief johnson from asset management. Lou, three days in a row of down days. It is making people start to wonder, have we seem is gains for a year . We have had a santa claus rally all this week. The market does have to trade even though the fed is there debting our fact. I do think the interesting factor is the fed and, you know, after we get the unemployment report on friday, depending on where that Unemployment Rate is, the fed may be able to say to themselves, if not publicly wrb that the cumulative improvement in the labor market since they began the qe back in september is 2012 is enough for that part of the equation. But they also have to figure is it going to continue . And thats something that they have to guess at. So will they be willing to guess and make a move in december if the Unemployment Rate falls to 7. 1 or 7 . I think it went up last month. That was affected by the Government Shutdown. As opposed to the nonfarm payrolls which were not affected by the Government Shutdown. So, you know, i think that extra factor, will the fed begin to taper or not, is something that may weigh on the market for the next couple of weeks. And like i say, weve come pretty far already this year. Can we go further if the fed does nothing . I guess. The market has always reacted very well up to the bitter end of the previous two qes. Jim, that brings us to the point of how the market will react if the jobs number on friday is stronger than expected. Normally youd say, thats great news, the economy must be recovering, we want to say people getting back to work. But will there be a knee jerk reaction that says the fed may come in and start tapering in disease. What do you think . There has been typically a negative reaction to any of the strength in the economy and everyone worries, what is the fed going to do . But the market resumes its upward track. Why is that . The crew is in Third Quarter earnings in the s p. Its start to go move up. The world is getting stronger outside the s p. The s p isnt u. S. Sent rick any more. And the Capital Markets sell a lot of goods overseas. Weve had a lot of people coming in and saying maybe u. S. Stocks arent the place to be. But you bring up a good point in that the s p is selling to a lot of those overseas markets, anyway. Exactly. And you can access that kind of resurgence outside the u. S. By owning a lot of big Cap Companies when created a pretty steep forward pe discount to the market as a whole. Lou, let me ask you this. People have been wondering the fed could start tapering in december. But theres been this thought that ive been hearing recent think from that people that look, maybe yell. Comes in and she doesnt want to make decision right away. She doesnt want to look like trichet being in a position of moving rates one way and having to reverse course in a very quick order. So could that mean that the fed could wait even longer because yellen is going to want to make sure that her first move is not a mistake that she has to reverse . I mean, i guess thats possible. That might be one of the advantages of doing some kind of a taper in the december meeting should the labor market look decent in the number that we get later this week. You know, i think that, you know, yellen believes that the forward guidance, the stuff that joe was talking about earlier, is the more effective way to go on, you know, for fed policy than is the qe. I think that they would say that the qe has been effective. I think the argument, though, is sort of trying to prove a negative, that we would have been worse off without qe. One of the examples is that the pce, that inflation measure will get friday along with the jobs data, we get that spending and income number. And were looking for the headline pce to be 0. 7 . The core to be about 11. 1 . And thats with five years of qe behind it. So i guess the argument is, you know, that where would we be, you know, for the economy, for inflation if we were not doing qe. But i do think that she would rather to forward guidance, she thinks that the fed funds rate and pushing that, you know, first move or any moves out further is a better way to go as far as sending signals to the market than is qe. So i do think that, you know, if they have the opportunity, if they believe they have the opportunity, if they make the guess things are going to go all right, they can to things as early as december. Jim, why do you think oil prices were up yesterday, theyre up against this morning. If this is temporary and theres strength, the pmis out of asia and china are better. But we have iran and iraq coming on with more supplies. The u. S. Is doing fine with energy. So the trajectory of energy is going to be flat and thats going to help the u. S. Consumer. So i would look at that as a positive story. This is a temporary blip in oil right now. 97. Is the blip, not the 92 . Thats right. Jim, lou, thank you both for joining us this morning. Well see you again soon. Thank you. Coming up, why ubs is giving brokers higher expense accounts. Plus want kfc fights to regain son assumers in kline na. This is a weird one. If advertise upons have end pd hi honey, did you get the toaster cozy . Yep. Got all the cozies. [ grandma ] with new fedex one rate, i could fill a box and ship it for one flat rate. So i knit until it was full. Youd be crazy not to. Is that nana . [ male announcer ] fedex one rate. Simple, flat rate shipping with the reliability of fedex. These are spartan conditions over there, arent they . The last time i was there, i was in a the best place in davos. And the last time i was there, i was in a single bed. A double wouldnt have filt in the room. That was an upgrade because the last time i went i was in a murphy bed that pulled out of the wall. Is this living . Its a beautiful, beautiful town. It really is. The alps are pristine, its a gorgeous skiing town. I think they look at it as so that means you cant have a decent bed in your room . Its rugged. Its part of enjoying the absolute beauty of the place. Welcome back to squawk box. Its time for a check on the National Weather forecast for the weather channels alex walla wallace. Try getting alex in one of those cots over there. Is it too much to ask, alex . What is with europe . Even a queen sized bed. Something. Its a month and a half away and youre worried about that . Yes, i am. Sorry, alex. Its getting cold, right . It certainly is. Its going to remain cold for a lot of the nation over the next few days. The cold is helping produce snow through the Northern Plains as well as the upper midwest. Weve seen aroun