Transcripts For CNBC Squawk 20240703 : comparemela.com

Bank of america hiking its yearend s p target to 4,600 it had been 4,300. Also ahead, sources are telling cnbc that apple and goldmansachs have been planning the launch of a stocktrading feature for the iphone project was shelved last year after the markets did turn south. Could have worked on it mitsubishi you worked on it yourself no, im just going to make up a series of things because thats exactly whats called for. Well get to it with kate rooney in a minute lets begin with the markets ahead of the fed decision later on today are you encouraged at all by some of the action this morning . Look, i think that if you dont have a if you dont have a rate hike, and he talks tough, everyones okay so, if he talks anything less than tough, then we go back to that scenario where theres that holy 13 you get when theyre done i think theres a perspective that longer, higher, whatever, take off the higher, maybe a little bit longer, but theres a sense that the dont worry, be happy s p target piece by bank of america, which made me feel so good. It was like a gummy. You know what a gummy is a gummy yeah, i do. I decided i was not going to go with an nfl reference you could do endorphin drip, Something Like that. Okay, i dont know what these are, but i know. Savita has a way of making you feel like everythings going to be okay i read this and i said, this is kind of its not like tylenol extra strength its better than that. Oh yeah yeah. She goes from 4,300 to 4,600. Basically, she says you want the spw. You want the equal weight because thats where sentiment has stalled out the most lets open this to everyone who hates stocks ive been with probably, i dont know, literally ten ceos, and man am i tired ten ceos in the last week and all of them have said the same thing. Whats wrong with the market i kind of hate it. And this really captures this piece is good research, and now, she was on she was on squawk box. Shes very strong strong piece and you know, u. S. Manufacturing renaissance, i was talking to the people in the Commerce Department you definitely have that i still dont like this whats happening with the strike if they cave, you got a remarkable situation, and immediately wages go up for a couple hundred thousand people did you happen to see the piece today on the productivity of the factory workers, manufacturing, and how its not been particularly good in the United States versus so many other countries . I thought it was an interesting addition to the debate here as we as obviously the backandforth continues over higher wages that 32hour workweek not to mention ratner in the times saying uaw is overplaying their hand thats the first guy who said it, and i think theyre really overplaying their hand, because there are options. There are options. These companies are not pitiful, helpless giants. No, youve made the point that there are many options, and over time, you could simply move more manufacturing to mexico thats basically what youve been saying. Look, i was part of a strike unit that came into a textile company in 1977, 78, and we just we had them on the run i mean, i was absolutely sure we would get a giant increase, and one day, they said, you know what you guys win, but were closing the factory. Whoa dont rule that out. Thats an interesting point as carl says, ratner was the car czar at that time, overseeing the restructuring of gm and the old chrysler when the United States, by the way, became the largest single shareholder of both, if you recall. Could be a pincer move. Get shawn fain, and he goes further and further, and then you find out how much the rank and file really like him and then you say, you know what . Weve got a fabulous plant in pueblo its going to take us two and a half years, but were going, because they saw, david they saw david fabers piece about musk and recognized that as Larry Ellison said, we have no people im changing my whole attitude i listened to Larry Ellison again. People who dont need people are the luckiest people in the world. Thats terrible barbaras going to call in barbara loves the stock market i love barbara i got to meet barbara once, she she used to be a fan of the old squawk box. Hes the a brilliant person she trades real estate there isnt anything that person couldnt do. Shes not from queens, you know. No, shes from brooklyn thank you we dont use robotics as much in our factories either. No. As, again im referring now to a journal piece today that i just thought was interesting. People make mistakes. But i think the more we talk about the strike by the way, tesla uses more robotics in their factories. No kidding. When i was looking it was incredible the stunning background of your interview, maybe we have a screen shot of it, i didnt see any humans there were. And there are plenty really . Yes what do they do they make sure everythings working properly oil me . There are plenty of workers at a typical tesla by the way, though, their most productive plant is in shanghai. That produces more autos they just crossed the 2 million mark berlin now. You look at what i went to the bronco lineup i went to the one that they struck broncos incredibly popular. Everyone that came off was already spoken for, so its not like theyre going after some line that is a waste of time its not like what disney did when they cut out those network those stations that nobody cared about im just saying that this was it was not an idle strike. People think, its not the f150. Well, the bronco is an impossible to get vehicle, so they are hitting, and if they spread it, then at a certain point, i think jim farley says, you know what . My grandfather worked on the line im a ford guy you people are not ford people youre not youre some sort of agency thats come over and taken over this union, and you do not represent our people, and then they put it jump ball, and then they just say, lockout now, ive been saying this lockout only because i know you keep saying it its an existential crisis. If they give, its 80 increase in what they have to spend and then they cant go ev. What if california says, you cant sell i. C. E. Engine in our state . You know you got something on your shirt, david. Oh. What is it i cant focus anyway, i think that what happened i couldnt focus what happens is that farley just says, you know, guys, were we cant do the i. C. E. Because of california changes and were out of business. All right, well, we dont know when that day comes its not near. Right well, president bidens coming out there, and hes going to really stand with hes going hes not, though, is he i think the white house is pulling the plan going to stand with bill ford for the right to be rich versus labor . No hes on the wrong side of history in terms of, like, what fords trying to do with ev, and it just is amazing to me that they havent played the ev card at all not once is anyone playing the ev card, the transition. Well watch it. Ford did get a deal with the Canadian Auto workers, avoiding a twofront strike lets get to goldman and apple, sources telling cnbc they had been working on a stocktrading feature for the iphone kate roonny has that for us. Apple and goldman, they had been planning that launch of that stock feature for iphones but the project was put on hold last year when the markets turned south this is according to three sources familiar with those plans, sources telling me and our colleague that apple began looking into this with goldman back in 2020 by 2022, when this was on track to launch, markets took a turn and apple feared its users would lose money in the market so they were worried about potential backlash, so instead they moved to launch that highyield savings account. Representatives for apple and goldman declined to comment on this story the project highlights apples big ambitions in consumer financing would have added to that suite of existing apple Financial Products powered by goldman. This was happening in the heyday of goldmans Consumer Banking ambitions. Unclear where the project stands at this point. One source described it as being on ice another tells us the infrastructure is mostly in place should apple decide to ever go forward with those plans, guys. Back to you. Kate, thanks for that its a good setup for discussion about both apple and goldman as we got greens guy in the mix today too. My sources im not going to disagree with that story, but i will tell you that when i speak to people at apple about it, they dont want anything that could cause a loss. They were going with buy now, pay later. They dont have any losses at all. This, conceivably, could cause a loss but it would be put on goldmans balance sheet, but i dont know how seriously this was discussed because when i spoke with them, they didnt think it was an imperative meanwhile, goldman continues to retrench as we know the firm is determined to do when it comes to consumer, which never really amounted to much of its revenues but certainly has occupied a great deal of time and effort and questions from the media certainly. You know, green sky obviously purchase that they wish theyd never made and now were in the process of selling unclear where its going to end up bloomberg and the journal reporting a handful of different names. Im hearing apollo, perhaps, maybe a blackstone also had some interest well see where it ends up thats not really the key part of the story what is is, of course, this continued retrenchment i asked David Solomon about it and he was very blunt about and trying to defend, essentially, saying, hey, we try something, it doesnt work, and we move on. Take a listen. We made a decision, you know, six, seven, eight years ago when we started this, seven, eight years ago, to also get into credit for consumers, and a variety of things that have changed, but we think that we shouldnt enter that space as aggressively what are some of the things i think the Regulatory Environment has changed. I think that scaling those businesses, you know, in this environment is a little bit harder than it might have been in a different environment and so, we made the decision to pare it back what i hear from most of our investors and shareholders is they admire that we tried something, and they also admire that we quickly made the decision that we didnt think it was working the way we wanted to pare it back and make a change, so we made a change. Were very, very focused on our core business of banking and markets, which weve grown really nicely. There you go. It was just the first loss is your best loss because when it was first they didnt buy green sky that long ago. Couldnt have lost that much value so quickly you would imagine they didnt i dont know where the numbers are going to end up here fairly robust auction, at least. Some interested parties, some groups ive confirmed that story is accurate, but what bothers me is that what kind of i mean, are you in that much of a hurry to prove that youre not what you went into, that you couldnt get a better price if you made the decision to get out, get out why wait it might be worth more. Im not saying that they should im saying that maybe give it a little time. David, theres an outfit ringing the bell and there was an outfit that came public yesterday klaviyo is ringing the bell and going public today whoever buys green sky, they merge it with some other some lending company, and it comes public and we cant hear from 9 28 to 9 42 because they bring people from outside and everyones so excited, and we call it skys the limit. Com. I like it im saying they wanted it off so badly, and they offset with gains. But whoever buys it, were going to have to sit here and say, wow, did goldman ever get fleeced. Maybe it doesnt matter. Mayor theyre making so much money and they wanted to change the profile. Theyre making more money now and certainly will in the Fourth Quarters, Capital Markets seem to come to life. The private markets are very important for goldman. M a is still in the doldrums, although i am starting to hear real signs of life but besides the ipo market, they were lead on arm, they were lead on instacart, and klaviyo too, right . Its interesting, they bring these deals, and i dont know if you notice, instacart opened at a high and has come down cinstacart, what do you think of that trading yesterday . Suboptimal. You called the company superfluous yesterday. It is superfluous food prices are really high, so all i want to do is tack on a little more. General mills. Cereals going up. Not another blue apron, though, is it . They split the stock. That was like 180 for 1. We had the ceo at this desk and after a while, i think he kind of gave up after he asked him he gave up. He said, you know what youre right its kind of a green sky like, green sky. The guy who sold green sky got a lot of stock for them. Theres a guy who did well right . Fool me once you were at goldman. I mean excuse me you did the Character Story you did the great interview. Oh, thank you. You didnt do you mentioned it you took a beating from this guy. Yes, they will have taken, most likely. Well see what the price is. 500. 500 . No, its what you said. Wait, what . Im saying the story this morning is accurate. Thats what im saying i know its being sold. Yes. No, the price is accurate okay. Were going to watch certainly cart and arm and klaviyo, ringing the bell this morning. Well talk some oil. Got some reactions here on where its headed from goldman, jpmorgan, and of course cramer last night well get to comments from the b of f ceo on the consumer, General Mills and cody, and calls on disney, pins, and Dollar General every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. You know doug, ever since switching to workday youve been a real rock star. Rock star . What do you know about rock stars . Billy idol . I mean wheres the skintight leather . My shoes are leather. Wheres the unnecessary zippers . That thing billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. Thanks, rory. Ill show you rock star be a finance and hr rock star. Workday. For a changing world. Billy idol just stole your golf cart the bottom line, the charts interpreted by carl garner suggest oil could make a run for the low triple digits if it clears this final hurdle around 92 bucks but based on Everything Else shes seen, she doesnt expect hundred dollar oil to be particularly sticky. In fact, garner would turn bearish the moment we hit 101 plus a month from now the seasonal pattern turns against crude so as she sees it, theres likely one last link higher before the relentless oil rally finally fizzles. Im concerned because i think thats going to cause a lot of chatter about how were about to go finally right through the moon these bulls cant take it. These different analysts at all these firms, all of them are going to come out of the woodwork and say were going to 150 there was jim last night breaking down the path for crude. Kind of rhymes with what jpmorgan and goldman are saying there. Look, carly garner, just so you know, shes a great technician, and she called the top exactly last year, so i went back to her, and she said, look, were going to revisit that top, most likely, because theres still a lot of buying going on by big speculators who do matter the United States is still not providing the additional oil, but what happens is the cure for higher prices, high prices, is higher prices. Right and so you will see these guys break ranks, typically, at this price yeah, we had kaplan on, the old fed hes not old. Hes very smart the former fed texas dallas fed he was talking about, you know, the energy transition, which of course they talk about a lot down in texas, especially. Remember being with exxonmobil during the period of time when i was doing that, and how long its going to take and the fact that were going to be undersupplied for a longer period of time we are. Even though were at highs in terms of production, we could be doing more, at least that seemed to be what he was saying were certainly not drilling more, because everyones trying to the discipline in the permian is incredible, that these guys arent breaking ranks and starting to drill more, but they pretty much had their fixture of what they were going to spend and theyre not going to spend more, but they can go after theres certain alreadydrilled wells that they can start selling. In the last three weeks, the data from the International Agency shows there is pickup but not enough and it is incredible to me that the saudis, its like, do they want to elect a republican because the saudis are making theyre the ones that i would say are keeping the oil too high do they want to elect trump . Good answer. On the podcast, youll absolutely shut me down. I mean, exrecession, theyre holding back on production by the most in a couple decades i think its extraordinary. And they look, this is an election issue i mean, gasoline is historically been an election issue, so its something to monitor, but i thinkoils going higher. It will be an issue soon, politically, if not already. Well get cramers mad dash when we come back, talk a bit about the effect of higher gas prices on the consumer fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. We need to scale with customer demand. In real time. jen so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. marquis with a custom private 5g network. ella with verizon business, we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. marquis so our customers get what they want, when they want it. jen its not just a network. Its enterprise intelligence. vo learn more. Its your vision, its your verizon. Ever since she was a little ki, all maria wanted to do was bak. Im maria alvarez, owner of marias cakes. And im axel, proud to be her state farm agent. Her baking superpowers have brought sweetness to our community. I make delicious cakes to make special occasions even better. Maria doesnt just bake; she also creates opportunities. Small businesses like marias, open doors for communities to thrive. Support your community. Support small business. Welcome back time for a mad dash. Weve got an opening bell six and a half minutes from now. Its going to get loud here, by the way, with all these employees from klaviyo i think they have at least a third of the Something Like<\/a> that. Okay, i dont know what these are, but i know. Savita has a way of making you feel like everythings going to be okay i read this and i said, this is kind of its not like tylenol extra strength its better than that. Oh yeah yeah. She goes from 4,300 to 4,600. Basically, she says you want the spw. You want the equal weight because thats where sentiment has stalled out the most lets open this to everyone who hates stocks ive been with probably, i dont know, literally ten ceos, and man am i tired ten ceos in the last week and all of them have said the same thing. Whats wrong with the market i kind of hate it. And this really captures this piece is good research, and now, she was on she was on squawk box. Shes very strong strong piece and you know, u. S. Manufacturing renaissance, i was talking to the people in the Commerce Department<\/a> you definitely have that i still dont like this whats happening with the strike if they cave, you got a remarkable situation, and immediately wages go up for a couple hundred thousand people did you happen to see the piece today on the productivity of the factory workers, manufacturing, and how its not been particularly good in the United States<\/a> versus so many other countries . I thought it was an interesting addition to the debate here as we as obviously the backandforth continues over higher wages that 32hour workweek not to mention ratner in the times saying uaw is overplaying their hand thats the first guy who said it, and i think theyre really overplaying their hand, because there are options. There are options. These companies are not pitiful, helpless giants. No, youve made the point that there are many options, and over time, you could simply move more manufacturing to mexico thats basically what youve been saying. Look, i was part of a strike unit that came into a textile company in 1977, 78, and we just we had them on the run i mean, i was absolutely sure we would get a giant increase, and one day, they said, you know what you guys win, but were closing the factory. Whoa dont rule that out. Thats an interesting point as carl says, ratner was the car czar at that time, overseeing the restructuring of gm and the old chrysler when the United States<\/a>, by the way, became the largest single shareholder of both, if you recall. Could be a pincer move. Get shawn fain, and he goes further and further, and then you find out how much the rank and file really like him and then you say, you know what . Weve got a fabulous plant in pueblo its going to take us two and a half years, but were going, because they saw, david they saw david fabers piece about musk and recognized that as Larry Ellison<\/a> said, we have no people im changing my whole attitude i listened to Larry Ellison<\/a> again. People who dont need people are the luckiest people in the world. Thats terrible barbaras going to call in barbara loves the stock market i love barbara i got to meet barbara once, she she used to be a fan of the old squawk box. Hes the a brilliant person she trades real estate there isnt anything that person couldnt do. Shes not from queens, you know. No, shes from brooklyn thank you we dont use robotics as much in our factories either. No. As, again im referring now to a journal piece today that i just thought was interesting. People make mistakes. But i think the more we talk about the strike by the way, tesla uses more robotics in their factories. No kidding. When i was looking it was incredible the stunning background of your interview, maybe we have a screen shot of it, i didnt see any humans there were. And there are plenty really . Yes what do they do they make sure everythings working properly oil me . There are plenty of workers at a typical tesla by the way, though, their most productive plant is in shanghai. That produces more autos they just crossed the 2 million mark berlin now. You look at what i went to the bronco lineup i went to the one that they struck broncos incredibly popular. Everyone that came off was already spoken for, so its not like theyre going after some line that is a waste of time its not like what disney did when they cut out those network those stations that nobody cared about im just saying that this was it was not an idle strike. People think, its not the f150. Well, the bronco is an impossible to get vehicle, so they are hitting, and if they spread it, then at a certain point, i think jim farley says, you know what . My grandfather worked on the line im a ford guy you people are not ford people youre not youre some sort of agency thats come over and taken over this union, and you do not represent our people, and then they put it jump ball, and then they just say, lockout now, ive been saying this lockout only because i know you keep saying it its an existential crisis. If they give, its 80 increase in what they have to spend and then they cant go ev. What if california says, you cant sell i. C. E. Engine in our state . You know you got something on your shirt, david. Oh. What is it i cant focus anyway, i think that what happened i couldnt focus what happens is that farley just says, you know, guys, were we cant do the i. C. E. Because of california changes and were out of business. All right, well, we dont know when that day comes its not near. Right well, president bidens coming out there, and hes going to really stand with hes going hes not, though, is he i think the white house is pulling the plan going to stand with bill ford for the right to be rich versus labor . No hes on the wrong side of history in terms of, like, what fords trying to do with ev, and it just is amazing to me that they havent played the ev card at all not once is anyone playing the ev card, the transition. Well watch it. Ford did get a deal with the Canadian Auto<\/a> workers, avoiding a twofront strike lets get to goldman and apple, sources telling cnbc they had been working on a stocktrading feature for the iphone kate roonny has that for us. Apple and goldman, they had been planning that launch of that stock feature for iphones but the project was put on hold last year when the markets turned south this is according to three sources familiar with those plans, sources telling me and our colleague that apple began looking into this with goldman back in 2020 by 2022, when this was on track to launch, markets took a turn and apple feared its users would lose money in the market so they were worried about potential backlash, so instead they moved to launch that highyield savings account. Representatives for apple and goldman declined to comment on this story the project highlights apples big ambitions in consumer financing would have added to that suite of existing apple Financial Products<\/a> powered by goldman. This was happening in the heyday of goldmans Consumer Banking<\/a> ambitions. Unclear where the project stands at this point. One source described it as being on ice another tells us the infrastructure is mostly in place should apple decide to ever go forward with those plans, guys. Back to you. Kate, thanks for that its a good setup for discussion about both apple and goldman as we got greens guy in the mix today too. My sources im not going to disagree with that story, but i will tell you that when i speak to people at apple about it, they dont want anything that could cause a loss. They were going with buy now, pay later. They dont have any losses at all. This, conceivably, could cause a loss but it would be put on goldmans balance sheet, but i dont know how seriously this was discussed because when i spoke with them, they didnt think it was an imperative meanwhile, goldman continues to retrench as we know the firm is determined to do when it comes to consumer, which never really amounted to much of its revenues but certainly has occupied a great deal of time and effort and questions from the media certainly. You know, green sky obviously purchase that they wish theyd never made and now were in the process of selling unclear where its going to end up bloomberg and the journal reporting a handful of different names. Im hearing apollo, perhaps, maybe a blackstone also had some interest well see where it ends up thats not really the key part of the story what is is, of course, this continued retrenchment i asked David Solomon<\/a> about it and he was very blunt about and trying to defend, essentially, saying, hey, we try something, it doesnt work, and we move on. Take a listen. We made a decision, you know, six, seven, eight years ago when we started this, seven, eight years ago, to also get into credit for consumers, and a variety of things that have changed, but we think that we shouldnt enter that space as aggressively what are some of the things i think the Regulatory Environment<\/a> has changed. I think that scaling those businesses, you know, in this environment is a little bit harder than it might have been in a different environment and so, we made the decision to pare it back what i hear from most of our investors and shareholders is they admire that we tried something, and they also admire that we quickly made the decision that we didnt think it was working the way we wanted to pare it back and make a change, so we made a change. Were very, very focused on our core business of banking and markets, which weve grown really nicely. There you go. It was just the first loss is your best loss because when it was first they didnt buy green sky that long ago. Couldnt have lost that much value so quickly you would imagine they didnt i dont know where the numbers are going to end up here fairly robust auction, at least. Some interested parties, some groups ive confirmed that story is accurate, but what bothers me is that what kind of i mean, are you in that much of a hurry to prove that youre not what you went into, that you couldnt get a better price if you made the decision to get out, get out why wait it might be worth more. Im not saying that they should im saying that maybe give it a little time. David, theres an outfit ringing the bell and there was an outfit that came public yesterday klaviyo is ringing the bell and going public today whoever buys green sky, they merge it with some other some lending company, and it comes public and we cant hear from 9 28 to 9 42 because they bring people from outside and everyones so excited, and we call it skys the limit. Com. I like it im saying they wanted it off so badly, and they offset with gains. But whoever buys it, were going to have to sit here and say, wow, did goldman ever get fleeced. Maybe it doesnt matter. Mayor theyre making so much money and they wanted to change the profile. Theyre making more money now and certainly will in the Fourth Quarter<\/a>s, Capital Markets<\/a> seem to come to life. The private markets are very important for goldman. M a is still in the doldrums, although i am starting to hear real signs of life but besides the ipo market, they were lead on arm, they were lead on instacart, and klaviyo too, right . Its interesting, they bring these deals, and i dont know if you notice, instacart opened at a high and has come down cinstacart, what do you think of that trading yesterday . Suboptimal. You called the company superfluous yesterday. It is superfluous food prices are really high, so all i want to do is tack on a little more. General mills. Cereals going up. Not another blue apron, though, is it . They split the stock. That was like 180 for 1. We had the ceo at this desk and after a while, i think he kind of gave up after he asked him he gave up. He said, you know what youre right its kind of a green sky like, green sky. The guy who sold green sky got a lot of stock for them. Theres a guy who did well right . Fool me once you were at goldman. I mean excuse me you did the Character Story<\/a> you did the great interview. Oh, thank you. You didnt do you mentioned it you took a beating from this guy. Yes, they will have taken, most likely. Well see what the price is. 500. 500 . No, its what you said. Wait, what . Im saying the story this morning is accurate. Thats what im saying i know its being sold. Yes. No, the price is accurate okay. Were going to watch certainly cart and arm and klaviyo, ringing the bell this morning. Well talk some oil. Got some reactions here on where its headed from goldman, jpmorgan, and of course cramer last night well get to comments from the b of f ceo on the consumer, General Mills<\/a> and cody, and calls on disney, pins, and Dollar General<\/a> every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. You know doug, ever since switching to workday youve been a real rock star. Rock star . What do you know about rock stars . Billy idol . I mean wheres the skintight leather . My shoes are leather. Wheres the unnecessary zippers . That thing billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. Thanks, rory. Ill show you rock star be a finance and hr rock star. Workday. For a changing world. Billy idol just stole your golf cart the bottom line, the charts interpreted by carl garner suggest oil could make a run for the low triple digits if it clears this final hurdle around 92 bucks but based on Everything Else<\/a> shes seen, she doesnt expect hundred dollar oil to be particularly sticky. In fact, garner would turn bearish the moment we hit 101 plus a month from now the seasonal pattern turns against crude so as she sees it, theres likely one last link higher before the relentless oil rally finally fizzles. Im concerned because i think thats going to cause a lot of chatter about how were about to go finally right through the moon these bulls cant take it. These different analysts at all these firms, all of them are going to come out of the woodwork and say were going to 150 there was jim last night breaking down the path for crude. Kind of rhymes with what jpmorgan and goldman are saying there. Look, carly garner, just so you know, shes a great technician, and she called the top exactly last year, so i went back to her, and she said, look, were going to revisit that top, most likely, because theres still a lot of buying going on by big speculators who do matter the United States<\/a> is still not providing the additional oil, but what happens is the cure for higher prices, high prices, is higher prices. Right and so you will see these guys break ranks, typically, at this price yeah, we had kaplan on, the old fed hes not old. Hes very smart the former fed texas dallas fed he was talking about, you know, the energy transition, which of course they talk about a lot down in texas, especially. Remember being with exxonmobil during the period of time when i was doing that, and how long its going to take and the fact that were going to be undersupplied for a longer period of time we are. Even though were at highs in terms of production, we could be doing more, at least that seemed to be what he was saying were certainly not drilling more, because everyones trying to the discipline in the permian is incredible, that these guys arent breaking ranks and starting to drill more, but they pretty much had their fixture of what they were going to spend and theyre not going to spend more, but they can go after theres certain alreadydrilled wells that they can start selling. In the last three weeks, the data from the International Agency<\/a> shows there is pickup but not enough and it is incredible to me that the saudis, its like, do they want to elect a republican because the saudis are making theyre the ones that i would say are keeping the oil too high do they want to elect trump . Good answer. On the podcast, youll absolutely shut me down. I mean, exrecession, theyre holding back on production by the most in a couple decades i think its extraordinary. And they look, this is an election issue i mean, gasoline is historically been an election issue, so its something to monitor, but i thinkoils going higher. It will be an issue soon, politically, if not already. Well get cramers mad dash when we come back, talk a bit about the effect of higher gas prices on the consumer fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. We need to scale with customer demand. In real time. jen so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. marquis with a custom private 5g network. ella with verizon business, we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. marquis so our customers get what they want, when they want it. jen its not just a network. Its enterprise intelligence. vo learn more. Its your vision, its your verizon. Ever since she was a little ki, all maria wanted to do was bak. Im maria alvarez, owner of marias cakes. And im axel, proud to be her state farm agent. Her baking superpowers have brought sweetness to our community. I make delicious cakes to make special occasions even better. Maria doesnt just bake; she also creates opportunities. Small businesses like marias, open doors for communities to thrive. Support your community. Support small business. Welcome back time for a mad dash. Weve got an opening bell six and a half minutes from now. Its going to get loud here, by the way, with all these employees from klaviyo i think they have at least a third of the Employee Base<\/a> here. Lets talk a little Dollar General<\/a>. Yesterday, we mentioned target, which has been quite weak in terms of as a retailer and the stock price. This thing has been ugly now, matt boss, went to talk with him, and david, they had a fireside chat. They went from hold to sell. Highly unusual this is Dollar General<\/a>s core lowend consumer is already at a stress point the middle income is not going there. Now you tell me, jim . Now . Okay. If you talk to matt, hes not been really recommending the stock. Like, you know, did he have a sell on it no he was saying, this is not one of my favorites. It isnt like he was pushing you in it and now he changed his mind but now hes saying, actively avoid it, maybe even short it . Look, i think if youre a Hedge Fund Manager<\/a> and you got this report, you would short it. Whats the issue . Their Customer Base<\/a> their Customer Base<\/a> is just really, really hurting and theyre just not delivering anything that i think is that valuable, but materially elevated levels of shrink. This is the stealing thing again. They got the stealing thing why is their Customer Base<\/a> hurting . People are employed. Because of the student loan comeback its very interesting you say that, because higher fuel prices are being pointed out as something that is hurting their bottom line. Student loan repayments is hurting their bottom lines excess savings for the middle income cohort on pace to be depleted by the owend of fall . Thats different from the mastercard data that shows that wont happen, but this is a really bad situation okay and i i dont know what to say. Well, you dont have to ive known that for many, many years and ive not seen that go pointblank and say, sell wld gt too. Iou not own this after im not we got to go. We got to go since the citi custom cash\u00ae card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category. Suddenly, lifes feeling a little more automatic. Oooooohhh. Automatic sashimi earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash\u00ae card. Announcer the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. Got another ipo to watch today. Marketing Automation Company<\/a> klaviyo going public here at the new york Stock Exchange<\/a>. Pricing at 30, around a 9 billion valuation numbers that kind of sound familiar this week, jim. Well, look, this is Enterprise Software<\/a>, and there are hedge funds that have made their careers on Enterprise Software<\/a> and buy every one of them to me, this one feels a lot like salesforce meets when salesforce put exact target in indianapolis and merged that with cap low, and then throw in twilio for messaging its a onestop shop it doesnt matter. Thats the whole point get three in a row, price how it works. David, its important for everybodys numbers. Its going to be very hard to hear each other. [ cheers and applause lets get the opening bell and the cnbc realtime exchange at the big board, as we said, marketing Automation Company<\/a>, klaviyo. Celebrating its ipo. Well talk to the cofounders and ceo in less than an hour at the nasdaq, sigma lithium, maker of ev batteries. [ cheers and applause squawk on the street, squawk on the street, squawk on the street. What do you think . No all right. General mills. I want to talk about General Mills<\/a> for a second its really important. There is a trade i dont care im going to talk over this because i know people can hear me theres a trend that is out of control now about people not spend on their pets. Theyre not spending on premium food now, we saw the good people at smuckers sell part of their pet food we saw a note last week. There was a downgrade, david, you want to talk about downgrading low . Of chewy today and General Mills<\/a> is saying that the consumers buying value or, you know, price packs. Now, what i think is most interesting is that im not hearing a whiff of complaining by the dogs. Not one. David, the dogs have not complained theyre hungry, and they dont care right General Mills<\/a> has benefitted from raising prices overall, correct . And a lot of them are sticking but you know what . Theyre sticking right now costco has gone after every company, is going after every company that hasnt rolled back prices, and i think, carl, other than coke and pepsi, they have been able to duplicate what everybody does and charge a premium for it because they make premium food, and its still underneath them. So, ive got to tell you, if youre going to sell to costco, i would be very concerned about not rolling back prices. You better roll them back, or youre not coming to costco. Its kind of hard to talk about anything other than klaviyo at the moment. If we were judging the ipo window by volume its obviously a 12th man situation, the bell ringing. A 12 what this is a seahawks situation. 12th man the crowd noise, yes. This crowd is very, very good the 12th man, by the way, when the cardinals played the giants, it belonged to the giants, which i thought was interesting. But again, Enterprise Software<\/a>, im a literally, Enterprise Software<\/a>, ill buy market buy ill take one fifth. Now, david, this anchor tenancy, that usually was a mall concept until the ipos, the bankers decided, lets make them work. We saw it with arm, with some what they call these cornerstone investors. We saw it again with instacart to some extent in fact, we pointed out with instacart many times much of the offering was already going to those, and therefore, you only had 200 million of stock being sold broadly by the way, that changed hands yesterday numerous times, given the volume and the actual stock that was available you can see whats happening with instacart, though well, its not. After that first trade, its been nothing but down, jim. I told you that this is not the right time to have an expensive service that makes it so that youre paying more for food when a name you referenced by the fed today, how much food prices have just as you pointed out, david, theyve not gone down. Well, the the General Mills<\/a> and mcmillan and kroger have all talked about moderating inflation. The thing is, when you look at the store brand from walmart, which i know, david, when you buy it, its every bit as good like, when you get those canned string beans that my mom used to serve, david, we could do a taste test you would never know the difference between them and the and just string beans that i would buy and cook on my own yeah. I see tradedown why not what, are you embarrassed when you get in line . I wasnt embarrassed not like when i was shut down for my kohls credit card, which was completely embarrassing. Thats one of my favorite stories. I couldnt get kohls cash. It was like confederate money for me that was embarrassing for all of us, jim it was. Notice, did you see the mortgage application, david, today . Plus five. Little refi coming back go back to lennar too refi, absolutely with a 30year fixed at 7. 31 . I think theres i know. Well, one of the things that lennar was telling me is that the consumer is ready to pay more, and understands they have to pay more. At the same time, they only build 1. 2 million houses thats like a fraction of what we need. We need two million houses in order to get the price down. Were missing 800,000 houses but there just isnt enough land the Environmental Issues<\/a> david, its hard to build a home in this country. It is interesting journal story today that its also even those big institutional owners of homes, Invitation Homes<\/a> being number one, i think, having a hard time these days buying new ones and in fact, have been selling some out of their portfolio because it makes sense to do so. Because you can sell at a socalled cap rate thats very low. Whats happened is that, lets say you bought a hundredacre parcel, and you would do tenacre single family, which is huge. The holdup is endless endless. Yeah. So, i mean, this is not something i think people just felt they could turn on the spigot these Companies Really<\/a> understand how to get through the loss, and its just taking forever. So, theyre not able to capitalize off whats happening. They just cant. All that said, the cfo of bank of america spoke today, said its hard to see a recession when Consumer Spend<\/a> is still growing fourplus year on year not seeing any asset quality issues yet loan growth has been a little disappointing. Take a listen. Right now, when we look at our credit card and our debit card payments, people buying things in their everyday, we can still see elevates the consumer buying behavior up 4 year over year thats come down very considerably the fed is having a desired effect its coming back to something that we would view as being more longterm trend, more normal and the Consumer Spend<\/a>ing, 4 more year over year. That said, its difficult to see a u. S. Recession when the consumer is spending 4 more year over year so, you can sort of see why people talk about pushing out the recession longer in the United States<\/a>. Consumers still in very good shape. Commercials still in good shape. And theres some signs of slowing at the margin, but the economys still in a fine position theyre spending on amazon and walmart, not a lot of other stores theyre still going away, but not as much as they were going away its not as easy to find where the spend is, but david, its important that you understand that Alastair Borthwick<\/a> is an insane eagle fan i have heard that ive heard that hes as big as or bigger eagle fan than im not going to disagree with that. Hes also an incredibly cool guy. I said, this is the new rap. Spend is okay, but we cant find out where theyre spending we look for it is it carnival is it i keep coming back to amazon and the number of people theyre adding amazon is just where amazon has become the de facto, and when i saw the Dollar General<\/a> sell, i would have thought that with the tradedown, they would be the ones. No i just think its just amazon and walmart and costco amazon adding 250,000 more workers. More than last year target added 100,000, similar to last year but amazon quarter of a Million People<\/a> even if its only for a couple months, thats a big number. I dont know. Wheres amazon wheres jassy going to find them i dont know that jassys out there looking specifically himself. Hes out there trying to watch a giant game maybe hes got the package, because you can do that four box. It took a while, but we got to the nfl references. We got the football in abundance. We threaded that needle it took about a half hour and then they started coming maybe, jim, theyre spending at wing, upgraded today by wedbush. Maybe pins, two upgrades today thats why i have wings top one tonight. What people dont realize is wing stop a lot of people are talking about they know how to moderate the price of wings. Wing is franchised youve got to come back to Planet Fitness<\/a> what happened at Planet Fitness<\/a> . Apparently there wasnt a lot of growth in franchises now, i once asked wingstop whether i could have a franchise. And they said, sure. Show me the other ten franchises that you run they are youve got to have a really good record at a mcdonalds or a burger king in order to get a wingstop franchise, and i dont think people realize how lucrative they are, plus theyre putting ads behind i wanted to say where theyre putting ads behind, but now i cant. Where they advertise a lot why because youre going to get mad at me. Football. Oh, gosh. Football you broke him, david. I know. Now i feel terrible. Im housebroken like a pet. Its okay its okay. The eagles are 20 thank you, blue buff. Im not kidding, borthwick sat next to me hes got a british team or something. He was hard to hear over jim, on chips, we got the upgrade of micron the other day. Today, two bullish notes on Western Digital<\/a>. We have the intel meeting yesterday. Thats right. That didnt go well, frankly. Well, they scared people about margins to a certain extent thats all they care about. Did an interview with jon fortt later in the day yesterday on cnbc. Gelsinger was still talking about staying on, plan for the next generation. He bought a lot of business thats an expensive proposition. What does that mean listen, well sell it to you for much less than amd Western Digital<\/a>, periodically, either theres a takeover rumor, david, since, what, 1998 90s, yeah. I mean, you know, its going to get taken over. One day, it will. When youre a hedge fund, this morning, Western Digital<\/a> this weekend its like, i remember Western Digital<\/a> at the end of the year on, like, december 31st at 5 30, they preannounced the bad number what quarter does that belong to the next group of lps or this group . Do i like the semis . I think the semis are all prepped for the end of the worst pc drought in 30 years, which is rather amazing ill tell you one thing we started the hour talking about the b of a target upgrade. A lot of thats based on investment, a. I. , and infrastructure and caterpillar, one of the bestperforming dow names today after that deere downgrade yesterday. And the deere downgrade was interesting because we were supposed to have a super cycle in food. David, when you hear super cycle, remember that one two out of three went bankrupt the kohls super cycle all three went bankrupt. The food super cycle, because 13 of the calories were taken out because of ukraine and russia it turned out to not be a super cycle. No. Beware the word super cycle, i guess, is thel lesson from todays squawk on the street. Absolutely. But caterpillar, the short position in caterpillar, you know, jim uppalby, see where the j is thats where jim came to a actually to a broker that had a neutral on it and basically said, guys, youre going to be dead wrong the infrastructure money thats coming, thats what matters, and look at that look at that you have to believe. Meanwhile, isnt it all about a. I. , a. I. , a. I. , a. I. Not with them but in general, for this market i mean, carl mentioned it in terms of the b of a outlook and it comes up so often for so Many Companies<\/a> that are not at the heart of it even at this point but that are looking at generative a. I. And what the implications will be and how it can aid their productivity and when theyre going to be able to commercialize certain products associated with it and or use it internally let me give you the use case that i keep hearing. So, youre i dont want to use a particular bank. Youre the bank of cramer. Community bank of cramer you can go in and you can say, all right, look, i want to lay off people i dont know who to lay off. I dont know what levels to lay off. Heres my table of employment. And it will come back with a number and what you should who you should lay off it has that. Right thats a pretty good use case, because efficiency matters tremendously efficiency does at some point, youre going to be able to have a personal assistant that really knows how you think about everything it has it right now it has tremendous data, and i think that if youre a major banker, and youre trying to figure out how to get that ratio good, boom, a. I. Will work for you, and i think people dont understand, thats happening right now. Youre into the longterm productivity bull story . Absolutely. Thats yardeni 1. 0. They have all the data. They have the training data. You can ask low code no code, ask, as i just asked, and you will get an answer, and you will have a benchmark of who you have to fire, and it will its based on everybody else. I dont think salesforce would disagree with that, and they work with a lot of the big banks. So, yeah, i mean, the use case is rather amazing, and it has to do with finding out what everybody else is doing without its anonymous and doesnt say, listen, bank of america is doing this, but you have the right data, and the data says you can fire all these people and youll be fine. I think its pretty imperative that banks do it my understanding of the banks a couple of the big banks that ive spoken to, theyre testing generative a. I. Internally at this point, but they have yet to really roll it out to be something thats part of their daily but i think its happening now. Theyre all looking at it. Yes, without a doubt, theyre looking at it. No ones ignoring it. Everybodys experimenting with it, which all goes back to the case for why the market may ultimately be big enough to accommodate nvidia and amd and even one day an intel. You know that the rap against nvidia is that theyre charging a great deal well, why wouldnt you . Exactly right thats what i said but i saw Frank Slootman<\/a> from snowflake getinto it at his Investor Conference<\/a> with jensen, basically saying, look, were charging too much, and jensen saying, we have to get our investment back. And then, frank saying, well, how about a coupon listen, i mean, im the only game in town right now, you dont like it, sorry youre out of luck what if they come up with something . Then nvidias going to have to lower price or theyre going to start to lose share well, look thats the hope, right . Nvidia is down a hundred points you spend a lot of time trying to figure out why, and the answer is that theres a lot of people who are upset that they charge so much, but why not . Yeah. Amd, by the way, is the best name right now on the mdx. Thats interesting to watch. Jim, cody, we havent mentioned raising their sales Growth Guidance<\/a> for the first half of next year. They wigo to 10 to 12 theres another bullish vote for the consumer i agree, but last year, e. L. F. Was down the most its been in ages estee lauder was down a great deal, and a lot of people feel that was related to china, so coty is actually the outlier we didnt really mention, uk cpi coming in quite light, and now we got some different odds on bank of engd. I was watching Frank Holland<\/a> today, and i said the opening has been so controlled by europe, i think we can get a pop just off of england, and people dont realize how much the first hour is controlled by the book being sent over, but it was very, very positive, and when we get, like i say, the semicap equipment, which has been a real dog business, well, its doing well we need aerospace to do well, david. We need infrastructure to do well okay we need banking to do well. Okay we need tech to do well, and then were off to the races. Anything you missed there its a good early cycle playbook exactly right and if you read the bank of america piece, that dont worry, be happy piece, you would feel so much better than you look, certainly. Thanks, jim youd be feeling as good as, say, the dolphins. Right what exactly are you wearing im wearing jeans and a very sporty sport jacket. Its a great blazer i like it. Maybe hes been to the bur burlington at coney island 42 tshirts for 5 thats ridiculous thats a waste its called hyperbowl. Yeah, well, you would know. Hyperbole and you . Really the burlington and the wendys, thats the best wendys ive ever been thats the one where i gave my name as beethoven and my wife was very embarrass i never want to use my real name thats your chance to be mozart. Dont you want to be somebody else you can pick who you want to be and no ones ever going to dispute it got it. Not kidding as we go to break, lets check bonds, awaiting the fed decision this afternoon and the presser and the dots yields are down across the board. Not by a lot, though twoyear still above 5 . Tenyear, 4. 33 . Well be right back. Every day, businesses everywhere are asking is it possible . With comcast business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Disney along the dow laggards, not by much but the second day in a row. A bunch of reactions to the cap x allocation yesterday at the parks. Most notably b of a, which cuts from 135 to 110. A number of igers initiatives could take several quarters if not years in their view. When youre in a troubled look you can put your money in media, everyone think its a terrible business so hes putting it where the parks are, which is a great business. Its supposed to happen this quarter . Thats where they went wrong with disney plus, trying to say were going to have the best mo movies and blah blah blah. No is he looking at the next quarter . Its the key growth driver now . No longer streaming. Thats where the money is the one thing we all worry about, and david youre closer to it than anybody people are saying how can we do this ahead of paying what could be humongous amount of huhulu. Well follow the assessment of hulu closely. That will play out in the Fourth Quarter<\/a>. Well get to stop trading with jim in a minute re a rock s. You are a rock star. No more calling coworkers rock stars. Look, its great that you use workday to transform your business. But it still doesnt make you a rock star. So unless you work with an actual rock star. Hi, im ozwald. Hello ozwald. Pam, you are a rock i wasnt going to say it. Lets get to jim and stop trading. I thought toll died years ago but this is from war and peace. Kindrell is trade at a discount to its peers ibm has done well since offloading it. This is a piece that explains why that is. Its a powerful piece and ibm is inexpensive so you can bet its off to the races today this is a positive piece, people arent focused on ibm, they can do the sum of the parts this is the way to get on the cloud. Remember they have hybrid. It they do, yeah. This is a very smooth story i like it. I like anything i can buy something for ten times 2024 earnings pretty expensive thats the same you put on a steel company. Yeah. Tonight i have jwingstop and then trex is the kind of faux wood. I have to find out what the consumer is doing because where is alistair says theyre spending i have to find out where. Its not just on a cold beer. See you at 6 00, jim. Mad money on cnbc. When we come back, founders of klavo iniygog public today back in two. ella fashion moves fast. Setting trends is our business. We need to scale with customer demand. In real time. jen so we partner with verizon to take our operations to the next level. marquis with a custom private 5g network. ella with verizon business, we get more control of production, efficiencies, and greater agility. marquis so our customers get what they want, when they want it. jen its not just a network. Its enterprise intelligence. vo learn more. Its your vision, its your verizon. Good wednesday morning and welcome to another hour of squawk on the street. Im sara eisen with Carl Quintanilla<\/a> and david faber live from post nine of the Stock Exchange<\/a> stocks marching higher on a fed day, 2 00 p. M. News Conference Live<\/a> on cnbc, 2 30 p. M. Eastern time we are seeing stocks higher, s p up a third of one percent. Most are up. Industrials are leading the charge today for a change. Nasdaq up about. 2 . Still negative for the week. 30 minutes into the trading sec session. Dollar general one of the biggest losers j. P. Morgan downgrades the name to sell saying the low end consumer is already quote acting recessionary today shares at the lowest levels since 2019 been weak for a while. Winds coming out of the sales of arm and instacart as klaviyo looks to go public told after pricing the top end of the range. Well speak to both cofounders and the ceo in a moment. And General Mills<\/a> reiterating the 2024 outlook more on those numbers what they tell us about the consumer later on its a fed day, start by looking at the bond market as we have every day lately and a little bit of alleviation in the bond yields maybe helping stocks today but the two year note yield its above 5 yesterday got to the highest level since 2007 nobody expects the feds to do anything on rates today, the consensus is more of a hawkish pause. Theyre not going to move on rates but the dots theyll signal one more rate hike but cut next year not as much as the market expects the bottom line is they dont know they dont know for november and december, thats why the market is 50 50 on november and 50 50 on december. Depends on how the economic numbers come in. Doesnt it always does anybody know how are you supposed to know . Heres something you can look at how much of an impact the fed has had. We say the economy is holding up really well. Heres what consumers are feeling. We have last years number on fixed rate mortgages, 4. 29 now 7. 3. Credit cards go from 16 to more than 20 these this is how fed policy works in higher rates. And this is why people say were just starting to feel the lags the lags. If youre a borrower and going out, youre going to feel this and its going to have an impact on the economy. Its not having as big of an impact as expected but thats something the fed they know these numbers and know theyre a lag. And thats why theyve changed their posture along with signs of moderating inflation and more willing to be patient. The question is, are those lags enough to really kill off this inflationary problem we have. Nobody is taking a fiveyear fixed personal loan in 20 nobody. No. Thats why loan growth has been, quote, disappointing as they said at b of a. You can do better down the block from whoever it might be. The shadow banker down the block. Yes. And inflation in the uk, a big miss, which is a good sign since its been hot and sticky but then yesterday, canada was hotter than expected it can never be clean it has to give you the yes but. I think thats why yields have moved high and stay there theres questions about inflation remaining sticky and flaring up again even if that doesnt mean higher rates from the fed. What do we get from powell today in his press conference . What language . Similar to jackson hole i think. Where he welcomes the moderation weve seen in inflation. But says theyre data dependent and theyll do more if they see inflation become a problem theyre watching the softening in the labor market and the overall economy. But again data dependent and its been resilient. Because he doesnt know. Because they just dont know so thats the hence the data dependency. Our next guest does see risks to the inflation outrisk with higher prices from oil extending to the broader economy, maybe goods as services as well. Thomas honig joins us this morning. Good to have you back, curious if youre listening to the conversation and whats most interesting today, the dots or the color framing or something from the chairman himself . I think the dots will be important in the sense it describes the mood because there are some new members on there. People will be looking to how theyre thinking because there are differences. Some wanting to hold more permanently, others wanting to get the rate higher to get the inflation down and given the amount of id say, strength in the economy because of the tremendous fiscal expenditures, thats just wearing out. So theyre going to be talking generally about the future and, as you said, they dont know so again, i agree with you theyre going to be talking about were going to be very diligent well look at this very carefully. Well watch the Inflation Numbers<\/a> and then well decide later is how i see it coming around on the conversation today. This whole cycle has been about core and weve seen a number of takes lately that oil will have limited impact, at least passed through to the core. Do you agree with that not necessarily because if the energy stays high not just higher inflation but if it stays high, its going to further affect transportation costs and costs related to that, which is already pretty high inflation. Thats going to affect other goods in terms of the cost of delivering those goods and consumers having to pay higher prices for that so thats going to put upward pressure on inflation unless the energy comes down quickly and i dont see that happening at the moment so i think inflation will stay more elevated than some expect, and thats what theyre they have the fmc is also concerned about. Theyre going to explain themselves by saying the core has come down. But theyre also going to say we want to watch it, as you described earlier in this conversation definitely will filter into air fares and other parts of the economy and inflation that have remained sticky. My question is on the consumer weve seen the consumer hold up relatively well which maybe has kept inflation hot but we are facing the resumption of student loan payments excess savings are starting to be drawn down here do you expect a change towards the end of the year with the consumer and the economy and therefore the inflation story . I think the consumer is going to be backing off as we go forward. Not just because of the Student Loans<\/a> but because the economy itself is slowing. And theyre seeing that. So you get more conservative when that happens. Thats what i expect i also expect upward pressure on rates. Timing is not discussed enough but as the excess liquidity runs off, thats going to put pressure on Interest Rates<\/a> and further discourage the consumer and some businesses. So i think the risk of a recession is high. And the fmoc knows it and thats why theyre coy in their statement today. And i think the chairman will be pretty coy in his press conference appreciate that very much see what happens this afternoon. Hopefully get your take on the other side see you soon see you, thank you. Whats ahead for this market as we do await the feds latest forecast our next guest helps oversee more than 300 billion, shifting his starategy a bit towards equities, joining us is Christopher Ailman<\/a> head of the second Largest Public Pension Fund<\/a> good to see you. Since weve been talking fed and the economy give us your take on things today and the chances of a soft landing today is an awkward meeting, hes data dependent, watching the sta tis ikss the street is clear theyre going to pause, which they should for today and then keep the cards hidden and the options open for the future. Whats your sense of what should be done and what youre seeing on the ground to the extent you have an opinion here . David, i do you know, the fed only has shortterm Interest Rates<\/a> as its tool to fight inflation. Inflation slowed this summer but i think it had to do more with Commodity Prices<\/a> as our last speaker said with oil trickling through the economy. Oil is back to 90 and appropriately the bond market is reacting ahead of the stock market i said through all of this we have to take our clues from the bond market. A. I. Has boosted the stock market ill grant you that, but its recognizing were in a higher for longer environment and the fed has to use higher rates. They havent slowed the economy. They really havent slowed inflation. Yeah. At the top i introduced you, talked about your weighting towards equities and bonds is there a change . I want to get this right in terms of how youre benchmarking things right now at the second Largest Pension Fund<\/a> in the country, public pension. Youre awesome, im a fan of yours, david we changed our benchmark this was intended for the public and teachers to understand our portfolio. Its simple, a 70 30 the portfolio is diversified an complex were not adjusting the equity weighting at all, 15 in real estate and 15 in private equity we use the private markets to help diversify that risk and also see growth. Right now the markets are shutdown due to climate Interest Rates<\/a>. But we see opportunities we finally had an ipo yesterday maybe we get a few more before year end and maybe 24 will be more open. I hear so much these days private credit youre talking private equity its been hard to come by given the rise in rates. But credit, double digit returns available and Asset Managers<\/a> are moving into it aggressively. They are. We have teamed up with a couple and helped create products for that market. I like it. Its not a separate class so you cant pull it out easily were 3 in private credit and growing that you have to do your homework and look underneath the hood and get into those underlying credits if a recession is coming. So private credit is very attractive fixed income has a return. Even cash has a return now you have to Pay Attention<\/a> to that in your asset allocation. What about real estate . How much exposure do you have to the Office Market<\/a> and have you had to have write downs . Im wondering how thats affecting the overall portfolio in your returns . Real estate has been flat the past year. We have about 15 of our portfolio in all four categories of real estate yes, we have an office waiting we do expect that to be written down youve seen a few cases where very big firms have thrown the keys back at the banks and said were not going to refinance then its pretend and extend and they restructure i do expect and i expected that market to probably come down 20 , on average, theres class a to class c properties. But youre going to see that market eventually reprice down but there havent been any transactions so the appraisers arent writing it down but cap rates have got to adjust to where Interest Rates<\/a> are. So yeah, thats a soft market and it will continue to be soft. Your public portfolio and equity youre in all the big tech stocks that have been winners overall, im curious how have returns been . Are you beating the benchmark . Yes in u. S. Equity and barely in global equity. Were basically an index fund. With the msic structure you own the winners and dont invest in the losers so youre not owning the low stocks i love jim cramer, hes fast money im slow, patient money. Im holding the whole market that does me im in the big nine stocks it doesnt mean its not an active decision. But we hold the u. S. Market, the nonu. S. Market roughly equal weighting to the indexes and ride up and down on the markets. 7 has been the big boeing out there. You 7 has been the been bogey out there p. Youre beating that. 7 is no longer a stretch when you can get 5 on a twoyear. Think about the people who started in the business the last 20 years and they think that zero Interest Rates<\/a> is a normal environment. When i went to school, zero Interest Rates<\/a> was not in the textbook, wasnt supposed to happen we are in a different world. I remember the 80s, and 90s, not going back there, but fixed income has a return. I think bonds are worthwhile for Retail Investors<\/a> to look at. I wouldnt trade them. Its going to be a tough environment with the fed to trade here but buy and hold you can get great returns in 10 year, 20 year corporate paper and people can find opportunities to diversify their portfolio finally. Finally, yes. Chris good to have you, thanks for your time. Thank you, always a pleasure. As we head to break, the road map for the rest of the hour huge day for the fed and markets. Donny fine joins us on where rates go from here. And ramore out of General Mills<\/a>. And klaviyo going blpuic today. Both cofounders and the ceo will join us in a moment nice footwork. Man, youre lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. Now you can stream all your games like its nothing. Yes [ cheers ] yeah woho running up and down that field looks tough. Its a pitch. Get way more into what youre into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. On the heels of arm and instacart we await klaviyos first trade. The marketing Automation Company<\/a> to trade here at the nysc under ticker kbyo. Joining us on set for a first on cnbc interview is ed hallen, and andrew bileki. Welcome gentlemen and congrats on the big day. Thanks for having us. Our customers, partners, everyone around the world, thank you. 11 years weve been working on this thing and what a moment. Back to 2012. I think you have to first explain the name sure. Which now we can pronounce correctly klaviyo. Ed is a big outdoors guy, got me into that, and klaviyo, its all about climbing mountains so ed and i we love Building Software<\/a> that helps businesses take on challenges so we want to be the Revenue Growth<\/a> engine we fell like we give them the tools to grow their business its not a household name like instacart for those new to the company you cater to the enterprise and help on marketing and targeting consumers. How does it work explain what you do. We power smarter digital. So we started working with Small Businesses<\/a> and now we serve businesses of all sizes. And we fundamentally klaviyo is a crm for consumer businesses that helps them build more personal relationships with consumers and treat them like people. Its really just shopshopify . Its 80 of your revenue is their service . We love working with the market leading platforms when we decided in the early days we were going to focus on retail businesses, consumer businesses first, who are the best platforms out there the most innovative and obviously shopify is at the top of the list. Is it a risk so much is concentrated there i know theyre an owner of your company as well. A bunch of product development, a bunch of marketing together we do it with other platforms, retail and outsider retail we loved working with other Software Companies<\/a> that compliment klaviyo they provide that payment, the back office, and we try to help with the Customer Experience<\/a> on the front end. Its been all about ecommerce so far but i think investors looking for the next growth story are wondering about other verticals and whether you can grow there from the start we had the first customers, a good handful were not ecommerce so we leaned in to help us grow we started signing more partnerships with other platforms. For example, theres a beauty appointed business called glow day in california where they manage their appointments and bookings through klaviyo so were excited about the possibilities for any relationship. Marketing looks to you as a tell for the Capital Markets<\/a> and ipo window can you describe how it feels to you and how the timing worked with the original plans . We have been building durable companies. We think companies should be profitable that way you can be in control of your own destinies. Klaviyo is about partnership and being in control were excited, a lot of momentum as a business now is a great time for us to go public especially as we move up in the enterprise as ed said. You have durable growth to the degree there was pressure was it to wait longer or go sooner there really wasnt any pressure at all. The business has a lot of momentum i think coming out of the last four or five years a lot of customers have come to us now even when its harder to grow your business, people lean on us because the return is so good. A great way for business to grow so yeah, the time is right. Speaking of control you guys will have control still of the Company Growth<\/a> is what obviously the market is looking for specifically how does the economy figure into this new business formation . The consumer its not an insignificant concern i would think. Yeah. The great part for us, if you think about a consumer business, tons of customers, a lot dont have a relationship with that customer walk into your store, by something you have no idea who they are we help bibuild digital relationships. Whats cool is i think theres a megatrend of businesses Building Digital<\/a> relationships. So everybody now were connected to the businesses and brands we buy from connected to them directly with klaviyo you have the opportunity to build awesome experiences that basically they replicate what you get in person. You are raising primary capital in addition to selling shareholders whats the main use of the capital youre raising . A ton to build. Customers, over 100,000 have bet on us since day one. We are very excited about what we have to build next. What does that mean what are you building next we are heavily invested in building out data infrastructure, more applications for businesses. The whole team, Artificial Intelligence<\/a> around helping our software use itself. We want to help any small business, large enterprise if you want to connect with your customers, we think weve got the platform to do it. 54 Revenue Growth<\/a> in the first half is that a realistic expectation for full year and repeatable from here . Well see i just believe in if you focus on a customer you build things they love, then you know what, the growth takes care of itself. Youve also been profitable, thats more recent, have not in the past i wonder if thats a sort of temporary phenomenon because you have to spend a lot to get the customers and the recurring revenue. I believe in Software Companies<\/a> that if you get customers that love you, you get this viral effect. Theyll bring each other to the table and you have great platforms to work with like sho shopify, we have over 5,000 partners it helps with the Customer Acquisition<\/a> costs so i think we have a great business model, excited to see what happens next. The valuation we just showed, not far from what you raised in 2021 in the private markets which was more bubble luscious than we see right now. So where did you get with the valu valuation . It sort of sorts itself out because weve had, you know, control of our own destiny as we built our company we try to find investors that shared our long term focus and honestly weve never tried to top tick price. And thats p what im excited about for the Public Markets<\/a> we want to find investors that want to go long with us there are other chompetitors what do you define as your core come penty ahead of them. We power smarter digital relationships well take the data and apply it to more applications what we hear from customers is thats what they want. They want software thats smarter and allows them to build better experiences and with machine learning, been at it four or five years, we have algorithms that run our software for you that idea of software that makes you smarter, better as you go, thats the future and thats what well work on. Thank you very much for joining us on this big day today. We appreciate the time talking to our fviewers. Amazon kigincking off a new product event this hour. Quick programming note as we go to break. A week from cnbcs delivering alpha investor summit, where the big investors and Business Leaders<\/a> break down where they see risk and reward. Visit the qr code uryo screen or visit cnbc. Com deliveringalpha for more business. It is. Is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues . We can help with that. Can we provide health care virtually anywhere . We can help with that, too. Is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations . Yeah absolutely. With the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. Its not just possible. Its happening. Keep an eye on amazon today, Company Hosting<\/a> a devices and Services Event<\/a> with many expecting the next generation of its echo device. Morgan stanley calls it a top pick on the heels of a big Seasonal Hiring<\/a> announcement yesterday probably saw the numbers around 250,000 see how much of that happens they have such large scale those numbers may be less dramatic than we think but well see. You see it as a high demand going into the holiday season. Not helping the nasdaq which just dipped. Time for a news update contessa brewer. Reporter three of Donald Trumps<\/a> codefendants in the Georgia Election<\/a> case are asking a judge this morning to move their case from state to federal court. Theyre accused of acting as socalled false electors by pledging for trump in swing states won by joe biden. The judge whos hearing their arguments earlier this month denied an attempt by mark meadows to move his case to federal court. India warned citizens to exercise caution if theyre traveling to canada. Canadian Prime Minister<\/a> Justin Trudeau<\/a> went public this week with claims india orchestrated the killing of a separatist leading in canada. And the fda rejected a request for a needle free al alternative epi pens the company is going to appeal that denial. Treasuries hitting 16 year high as wall street braces for a decision from the fed. Donny fine is joining us well tell you what he does. Back in two. O you know about rock stars . Billy idol . I mean wheres the skintight leather . My shoes are leather. Wheres the unnecessary zippers . That thing billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. Thanks, rory. Ill show you rock star be a finance and hr rock star. Workday. For a changing world. Billy idol just stole your golf cart sirens [due at target in 5 ] copy that. Make a hard left down the alley. Networks got you covered. [please confirm requesting backup. ] changing route. Go. Roadblock ahead. Back up, back up. Reverse reverse next level moments, were 30 seconds out. Need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry ] coming through or 3, lets go. The network more businesses choose. Transplant received. At t business. It is fed day. Many expecting the central bank to hold rates steady in a few hours. Lets get to Steve Liesman<\/a> with the latest from washington. The fedex pected to hold rates steady but the focus is how jay powell thinks about the recent strikes and the higher yields and potential Government Shutdown<\/a> beyond that theyll focus on what the fed signals for rates in the forecast. Let me show you high level math. Theyll focus on gaming out how restrictive the fedex pects to be on an current basis the forecast minus inflation forecast the second set of parts to check the first, you get the third average out to 2. 4 rate last year thats compares with the last set of bars,. 5. It means the fed is expected to keep the brakes on the economy the 5. 4 implied rate on the january contract shows a 40 hike probability but the news has been how much in the way of cuts the market has dialled out next year. 200 basis points higher they did in may the upshot, the fed is convinced markets are up much higher for far longer i think its unlikely the fed gives any reason the reckoning whether the fed is too high next year can happen, guys, next year. I was amazed at how much tightening has been dialled in next year. They keep saying higher for longer maybe the market comes along where is the scope for surprise today . Because everyone is expecting this sort of hawkish pause already. So im going to do the math and thats where i think im going to be surprised. I dont think its possible to game out exactly where the average comes out. But im interested to see if they keep that real rate expectation for next year up near 2 . In other words take their funds rate forecast, subtract out their inflation rate and see how tight they have to be. You remember from jackson hole, the discussion could change the longterm trajectory but its interesting watching the two year and then you have the addition of the fed hiking rates and then you have this higher for longer somewhat Stronger Economic<\/a> growth all of that has led the market to dial in more tightening or less cuts for next year than they originally thought. Although bullard wont be there so the outlier crazy hawkish dot will go away. Thats an important point whats it replaced with . We dont know. If it comes in with the person taking bullards place, i dont know if he puts on a dot, that could buy things downward. We have to do a pro forma on that. Pro forma on the dots steve, thank ou. As we await the fed decision, the yield on the 10 and 5 year treasuries hitting the highest since 2007 with real yields elevated no reason to chase assets, according to dojohnny fine, welcome back what will you be watching this afternoon . The last time i was on with you was fed day a few months back and i said that was going to be one of the most important meetings we had for the cycle in one is one of the least important for the cycle. The pause is what we get i expect there to be a limited degree of Market Movement<\/a> for pricing for the rest of the year into next year but its a coin toss now for november and december. I think its probably about right. Markets pricing in roughly 50 50 in november or december. Well be data dependent, see what things look like in the coming four to six weeks that will harden or soften the approach to whether there will need to be another hike. Our chief economists in the u. S. And globally view were at the end of the cycle now and will move into a cutting phase into next year. Does that mean weve seen the highs on treasury yields not necessarily there are a number of headwinds the treasury cycle faces we have a sharply inverted yield curve thats not normal. In the last 20 years on average the spread between funds and the treasury yield has been just over 100 basis points. Were now 125, 150 basis points inverted, and theres a lot of work that i think we need to see done just to get to flat that may happen by the time we get to next year but that along with an increased amount of government borrowing to fund the deficit will weigh on long end yields so if anything theres more pressure on yields from here what are we seeing overall in the activity when it comes not to just Investment Grade<\/a> buff high yield i assume you can weigh in as well setting up for a busier Fourth Quarter<\/a> . I think so. I think weve seen a soft opening of the ipo market with well telegraphed deals. Yes Goldman Sachs<\/a> led many of them. We have proud to do so but the leverage loan market is in a better state of health. Single b risk get placed in the primary Capital Markets<\/a>. Clo formation is back as well. So even though i think those markets will likely not see an amazing rush of supply going into year end, i think the soft openings are encouraging there will be more activity. That sets us up well assuming we get insuing performance. That sets us up for 2024 if im looking at the debt market, im not setting up not really. Where we are in the spread cycle is favorable in the rate cycle is less favorable. Unless you have a strong thesis that term yields are moving down you need the money you got to do it. Yeah. And i dont think thats going to happen. I think there will be a good level of activity. Why not why wont yields crash, lets say . Because i think we have ongoing supply from treasury and an ongoing normalization of the shape of theyearold curve. The right parallel looking at 10 year yields, for example, lets look at what that market was like prior to the Global Financial<\/a> crisis, in the early 2000s before we had qe, alternative forms of Monetary Policy<\/a> ten year yields were four half, four and three quarter percent and the economy did just fine in that environment as well thats the right parallel to look at as to where longer term yields might equalize p. What about the notion that cuts are a sign of distress, economic distress, a sense that cuts if the they come, youre calling for the second quarter, can be benevolent in a sense i think even if the fed were to cut 100 basis points from here they would view the rate environment as being restrictive. Monetary policies to be restrictive. And continue to combat inflation. Thats an easy message for the fed to tell. If and when we get to that cutting cycle, thats how i expect the fed to deliver. A trillion in money markets doesnt go anywhere until we see a decline in rates i think thats right. A lot of competition for risk aleksandr t assets right now whether its t bills, commercial paper or other short term forms of liquidity theyre attractively brpriced that will act as a break on too much froth in the high yield markets, so on and so forth. As we get into a cutting cycle thats an amount of powder that can drive assets. We look for early signs of recessionary indications you described it as benign are you in the soft landing camp seeing anything changing that might be worrisome. I am in in the soft landing camp i think the economy has been insensitive to the rate moves weve seen since the beginning of last year thats the structure of our bond, mortgage markets, and how consumers behaved when rates were low in 2019, 2021 so i think soft landing, absolutely i think the market consensus is there too it swings on a pendulum and at some point that pendulum will swing back slightly the other way but overall very much in the soft landing camp. Johnny, thank you great to have you on a fed day. Cnbcs walltowall coverage of todays fed decision kicks off at 1 00 p. M. Eastern time from washington d. C. Leading up to fed chair powells News Conference<\/a> at 2 30, which we take live. More on the ipo of the morning, klaviyo, after the break. Indic indications, 34 to 36 after pricing at 30. Stay with us dad oh yeah mom bringing in a new roommate to save money . Is that the plan . dad well we gotta find someway to save. So say hi to glenn from work. glenn hey thats my mom. mom yeah. I think i have a much better plan. We switch to myplan from verizon for just 25 per line. daughter and that price is guaranteed for 3 years. mom all on the network we can count on. daughter its a good plan. dad it is a good plan. Glenn looks like were not going to be needing you. So, ill see you at work . son uh later, glenn vo save big with myplan. Starting at. Just 25 when you bring your own phones. Guaranteed for 3 years. Its your verizon. As the world keeps changing, so does covid19. Thats why this seasons covid19 shots have been updated. Theyre one of the best ways to help protect yourself against covid19. Learn more and schedule at vaccines. Gov Marketing Software<\/a> company klaviyo going public today price at the top of the range, 30 bucks, indications 34 to 36 right now. Lets get to bob pisani, of course, because bob you focus on the ipo market weve gotten these three important offerings. Where do we stand . Well, its opening slowly but very selectively, theres 800 unicorns that are out there. These are the early ones we elsee early trading is not that great. Its great theyre pricing above the range. Talking 19. 2 million shares, the stock price was 27 to 29 for klaviyo. Prior to that, it was 25 to 27 a few days ago so thats good news getting more prices but look at whats going on with the recent ipos. Arm, priced at 51, opens at 56, goes to 69 on the second day and look here, were at 53. But thats nobody got in except the insiders at 51. The average price on the first day of trading, the average viewer cnbc bought it at 60 theyre under water. Instacart, priced at 30, got to 42 yesterday right after the open and its been basically down here in the 32 range you say, okay, its still above 30, theres the initial price but the average investor on the first day didnt buy in on that, they bought in the mid 30s so average investment yesterday still below water. After market returns, theyre selfcorrecting mechanism, people will stop buying these if they dont work and thats what my concern has been. This has been the concern in 2 2020 and 2021 when the market moved up remember audity tech they did cosmetics july priced at 35 opened at 50, its now 32. Below the price. It traded in the 50s for most of the first week so everybody bought in around 50. How about cava, that first opened the market. We were all agog priced 22, opened 42, went to 50 everyone was buying it at 42 and 50 for the first few weeks its now 33 so the average investor is below water. I divide the ipo market in two pieces, first day and after that first day of trading this this year, up 19 great news but after the first day it trades down 7 so the average investor, the insiders are still up, thats true but the average investor is down who bought in this on the first day. So 77 deals so far we have 16 billion raised. Is the market opening up yeah, but yeah but only 16 billion the amverage year, were doing 50 billion. We raised 30 of the average year, three quarters of the way through the year its better than last year, but its not good. And you seem a little worried about the aftermarket performance of many of these stocks you should be look at those numbers. By the way, on the numbers, put up the areas big ipos, arm, 4. 9 billion one third of all the money raised this year is arm. K k kenvue is 3. 8 billion so your question is the right one, is it opening up . Yes, but its still pretty moribund right now we ought to have an awful lot of business in the Fourth Quarter<\/a> even to get close to an average year and in my opinion, the valuations are still too high. I want the average investor who buys in on the first day to say, a month, two months later, theyre up and this is not still not happening you keep talking about this average investor who are we talking were still talking about Institutional Investors<\/a> to a certain extent or are you thinking retail im talking about the viewers who buy on the first day the people who buy in on the first day. They are buying if at the higher prices on the first day. And they dont make money. Maybe they just shouldnt participate in the ipo market . Okay well, that may be the correct youre still going to get aed by, because the other people who the institutions and the hedge funds who line up im happy that you need retail for aftermarket im happy that goldman and jpmorgan gets higher cprices for their clients. Thats what they should be doing. So i like the average investor who watches our shows who dont get in on the inside price to be able to buy it on the first day or the second day, and still say a few months later and that trend doesnt work that way so interpretation is, the valuations are still too high for the average investor its been a tricky market, too, bob you have these flareups with inflation and the bond yields go up its not exactly smooth sailing, even though the equity market is higher this year we have to deal with the markets as they are. Its true, stuff gets in our way all the time from an average market evaluation. We have these weird events that and weird economic events, but we have to deal with the markets for what were given so its is it too much to ask, like, this has been going on for years bring down the valuation, bob. Spec craze. You bring down the valuation, bob, and these things are way under their last when they last raised capital and that makes it difficult for these founders and the others to say, im going to do it good. Lets let, i like the Public Markets<\/a>. I dont like people hiding in the private markets for ten years, now they have theyre middleaged Companies Like<\/a> instacart that would have come out five years ago, maybe things would have been different for them lets get Younger Companies<\/a> and make it easier for people to go public faster, easier. Nothing gets you quite as emotional as ipos. Its the greatest thing ever to stand here and watch the families and i want to see more of them. We love watching you do it. Thank you, bob bob pisani coming up next hour, airbnb shares are an outperformer this year and some fresh product news brian chesky joins us to break downhe t business next hour. Dont miss it. Squawk on the street will be right back dows at 150 General Mills<\/a> is a mover today, reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines this morning. Higher pricing again helping to offset lower volumes in the quarter. Also, the Company Reaffirms<\/a> its guidance for the year. The companys chairman and ceo saying, quote, the external environment is highlighted by moderating inflation, stabilizing supply chains, and a resilient but increasingly cautious consumer. Shares are off more than 25 from their highs back in may the story here, guys, is, strong humans, weak pets. Because they have a big pet food business, the blue buffalo business which they bought and they are seeing a decline. Theyre not alone. Weve seen it in chewy and others in buying habits of pet owners, especially in treats, treats went negative, wet food was flat, dry food was a little better but the economics of that consumer is changing a little bit. On the food side of things, higher prices is still helping, volumes were down 20 . The street is focused the biggest question for all of these food names is, as prices moderate, first of all, will it hit margins and second of all, will volumes start to come back . They need for that growth. Its one worry of why these food stocks have been weak all year price has been key here sara, thank squawk on the street continues with sarah and carl right after this somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. She didnt know they were talking to her. I just could not hear. I was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. But nobody even sees them. Our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason weve been the brand leader for over 75 years. When i finally could hear for the first time, i could hear everything. Try miracleear hearing aids with no commitment during our limited time sounds of autumn event. Call 1800miracle now. New projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. When you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. Visit indeed. Com hire and get started today. when the day that lies ahead of me seems impossible to face a lovely day lovely day lovely day lovely day a bank that knows your business grows your business. Bmo. Good wednesday morning im sara eisen with Carl Quintanilla<\/a> live from the floor of the new york Stock Exchange<\/a> stocks are higher ahead of the fed decision this afternoon. Guggenheim partner ceo anne walsh joins us in just a moment with the number one thing shes watching from todays meeting. And airbnb releasing some updates, including lower pricing in an effort to take more share from hotels. An exclusive with brian chesky is ahead, but the stock up 66 this year. 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