Bit. This is what happened here. The 2year treasury yield topping 5 after fed chair jay powell made his first comment after the hotter than expected data. We said its moving sustainably toward 2 before proemtsly easing policy. The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence and instead indicate that its likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence. Powell echoed recent statements by other fed officials indicating the current policy level will likely stay in place until inflation gets closer to its target. And so effectively, andrew, hes saying the data has been coming in increasingly hot. Weve been trending toward it. Now the question for the markets is will we have to establish a new trend and is the bar even higher to start cutting rates. Weve seen banks push out in september, which is 68 at this point. Some have said maybe none in 2024. Maybe its 2025. Can you believe were at 7 . Thats always crazy. I dont think the street should have ever been at 7 or 6. Five, six weeks ago. Beginning of the year it was six. We have seen literally three weeks ago how it was going to begin in june and there was going to be a cut every month for the rest of the year. Right. Yeah. Meantime, new this morning, President Biden calling for a tripling of the existing tariff rate of chinese steel and aluminum. This is in response to what the u. S. Says are unfair trade prac practices. The white house says the current average tariff on steel and aluminum is 7. 15 . He wants to try to consider to raising that rate to 22. 5 . In the next hour were dpoung to talk to white house expert Jared Bernstein about that topic and so many others. What do you think . Its a big jump . Its a hugeup p. While all of these have a political basis, its basically inflationary. Whos going to pay for the higher costs if there are continuing sanctions on oil, steel, and aluminum . 100 . Has jay powell, you think, consulted with him on this . Highly unlikely. Meantime speaker Mike Johnsons former aid plan encountered resistance. The house caucus said they would not support it without offsets and concessions on geo security. If have voted to oust the speaker after Mike Gallagher steps down from the house on friday. It will take only two if all democrats vote against him. Well bring you more on this story from washington later on in the show. Federal boeing engineer turned whistleblower will testify before a Congressional Committee on the safety of the 787 dreamliner. He spoke to tom cause still le o in an exclusive interview. Should boeing ground the 787 to check the gap sizes . I would say they need to. The entire fleet worldwide. The entire fleet worldwide needs attention. The attention needed is to check your gaps and make sure you dont have potential for premature failing. Boeing told c kr newsu c news theyre quite confident. They say the claims about the 787 are inaccurate. Meantime United Airlines is reporting a loss, much better than the 50 cent loss they had expected. Theyre expecting better than expected profit for the First Quarter and its announcing its revamped fleet plan will take delivery of just 61 planes. Thats dune from the prior 101 jets and an even earlier plan of the 183 jets. United confirming or there were earlier reports it will release airbus planes to make up for the shortfall. It reached deals with aircraft that will begin flying in 2026 and 2027. Well speak with ceo of United Airlines scott kirby. You dont want to miss that. You look at everything else, and we will do that in the 8 00 hour. Yep. Meantime, we do have some interesting political news. David ellison, sown of larry ellison, gave 929 million to back biden. It comes as his fiancee larry has refrained from donating in 2024. For context, larry donated 31 million to gp candidates during the 2022 congressional midterms. The move by the Biden Campaign to gain dauvd ellisons report was a move by bidens campaign manager. Meantime trumps criminal hush money trial continued yesterday in manhattan. The jury has partially been selected. The judge expected Opening Statements to begin on monday morning. Meantime the other piece of this that everyones watching at least in our world is shares of trump media, which fell again sharply yesterday. Closing down by nearly 14 . Its don 30 in the last two sessions. A sharp drop coming after the Company Announced a rollout. Immediately afterward when we talked about this, the worldwide streaming plan would be a platform for content delivery. It jumped a couple percent and went the other way. The content expected to include, as they said, news networks, religious challenges, familyfriendly content and other content that they believe is, quote, unquote being canceled or suppressed on other platforms. Maybe given how tough the streaming world is for the big players. And how much money it requires . Its hard to see. But, you know, hope springs eternal for some. Exactly. Especially for this stock. Coming up well talk about the fear of the market. That is next. In the next hour well talk real estate and Home Renovations with the Property Brotherss. Squawk box will be right back. Are you keeping as much of your investment gains as possible . High taxes can erode returns quickly. At creative planning, your portfolio is managed in a taxefficient manner. Its what you keep that really matters. Book your free meeting today at creativeplanning. Com. Norman, bad news. Its what you keep ti never graduateds. From med school. What . But the good news is. Xfinity mobile just got even better now, you can automatically connect to wifi speeds up to a gig on the go. Plus, buy one unlimited line and get one free for a year. I gotta get this deal. Thats like 20 a month per unlimited line. I dont want to miss that. Thats amazing doc. Mobile savings are calling. Visit xfinitymobile. Com to learn more. Doc . Fear is back on wall street as the volcano tilt hits a sixyear high. Shes a cnbc contributor. Thanks for being with us. Sixyearhigh levels seems like a big deal, but in particular when you think about what was going on six years ago because february 18th was a huge volatility event. Crazy. Huge explosion of volatility at that time. S p 500 lost 10 in a very short time frame and what traders said was alarming this time around is it was down and yet were seeing a stampede in wagers with the recent turbulence weve seen over the past two weeks. This is really the first sign of fear were seeing in the market after rlg going in a Straight Line up for months now. Historically its not that high, but historically when vix had been at 16 or lower, what are they saying how high volatility can get and how it will impact the markets . Because volatility is a bet its up and down, right . Its not necessarily that stocks will go down. Thats true, mlts, but whats remarkable is in the past few weeks weve seen bets on it. There were bettss that nvidia would keep skyrocketing or it would be more vol title. People were afraid on missing out on the upside and now were seeing downside hedging. Were seeing the types of trades that would profit if the stockmarkets did fall. Think of these as insurancelike contracts. The demand for stock insurance has increased and this is a remarkable shift from the roses and sunshine we saw in the prior months. And i think a lot of it comes down to inflation, geopolitics, and the path of treasury yields that are finally spooking the market after the stockmarket being pretty resill yejt in the face of rising yields. When youre talking in terms of hedging, are you also seeing commensurate trades on the option side for spy and nasdaq 100 in terms of hedging . You know whats interesting . A lot of traders are telling me this is concentrated in the vix complex. Thats interesting because as youve pointed out, weve seen the vix rise to the highest levels. While theres been a pickup on the s p 500 side, thats what theyre reflecting. People are placing call option bets tied to the vix itself. Thats a true bet. Were seeing that in the futures market as well where pricing indicates its increasing over the next month or two. Theres this nearterm fear that this whole complex is reflecting right now. What do you think are the fundamental reasons for it being a two to threemonth bet . Is it just the uncertainty about Interest Rates at this point and probably increase in certainty now that fed chair powell said what he said yesterday in terms of keeping rates where they are for longer. Melissa, what i did here, is a lot of this activity started picking up friday heading into the weekend, and it was the geopolitical fears where people are saying we dont know whats going to happen here. That led to that rush into the vix options bets. Its been incredibly elevated especially when you think about the calm we saw previously. Do you think traders are thinking in their head we will see that 10 decline, the same we saw during that time . I think were 3 to 4 off. What traders are telling me, it is lake people woke up and said the stockmarket cant go down. It can go down and have a little bit of volatility. I think people forgot that. We have a treasury auction at 1 00 p. M. This has become the hottest thing on watt street that used to be really sleepy. But theyre causing a lot of volatility. Weve seen that after the inflation data where they recorded the biggest oneday jump after an ugly auction. I think we need to stay tuned for that today. Down 10 actually lines up on the technical side of things. Thats interesting theyre targeting that or thinking about that in terms of the time frame, and on the technicalside, thats where we see the s p getting down to the bottom channel. Thats an interesting channel. Gunjan, thank you. Two big European Companies moving on earnings. Well bring you details after the break. And today marks 100 days until the start of the paris olympics. Later this hour, well hear from three athletes preparing to represent at the summer games. Teth. Bk ox comes rightac afr is engineered to minimize noise. And built for adventure. Which can also be your own quiet cabin in the woods. The fully electric q8 etron. An electric vehicle that recharges you. How we get there matters. vo what does it mean to be rich . Maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number. And more about discovering magic. Rich is being able to keep your loved ones close. And also send them away. Rich is living life your way. And having someone who can help you get there. The key to being rich is knowing what counts. I have a business idea. And it just might change the world. But heres the thing, i cant do it. Alone. So, are you in . Im in. Nothing else to do. Yeah, i dont know. Um, i need to speak to my agent. snoring i think creeds out. Shares of lvmh rising. Other divisions include champagne and jewelry. They fell by 6 in the First Quarter. They attributed that to chinese buying outside the company. Shares of adidas jumping in germany early this morning. That comes after the company unexpectedly raised its fullyear guidance and increased its yearoveryear increases. Its been selling off its yeezy inventory after breaking ties with the rapper formerly known as kanye west. It will result in additional sales of around 200 million euros. Coming up, the u. S. Considering additional sanctions on iran in response to attacks on israel over the weekend. That story after the break. As we head to break, a look at s p 500s winners and losers. [thunder rumbles] announcer wehners and losers is sponsored by state street global advisers. The biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. It still does. What can you do with spy . [thunder rumbles] welcome back to squc box. The s p 500 looking right about close to 18 points higher, melissa. Apple may be looking to diversify its supply chain furtherer away from china. Tim cook is looking on whether to set up a new plant in indiana donisha. He made the comment after meeting with indonesias president in jakarta overnight. There are new sanctions in iran last week. The administration is considering ways to further restrict iranian yoil exports. Joining us now is Megan Osullivan who serves in the Geopolitics Energy project. Shes on the secretary of state blinkens policy advisory board. Thanks for joining us. Its great to see you this morning. Were trying to see where the whole situation goes next and what the role of the United States can or cant be, what kind of influence we have on the situation as it stands right now. Good morning. Its great to be with you, andrew. The u. S. Has a very sig cant amount of influence on the situation. Of course, it doesnt have full control. Israel is its own entity. Its not a proxy of the United States arc nlds it will make its own decisions. But the Biden Administration and International Community really does have the ability to set a framework that can influence the very intense indiana term debate going on with israel right now on how to respond. It will it being the Biden Administration and its European Partners and other allies will stress that it is possible to hold iran responsible without a big us rah i will military response. Thats a big focus for the United States and others. We have already gone from a situation lets say before what happened over the weekend, you know, its unclear im being polite unclear whether President Bidens message to netanyahu on some of the efforts in gaza were the appropriate way to go, and, of course, netanyahu continued over the weekend. The pretty at least according to the readout we got publicly, he said, take this as a win and theres no need to retaliate, and now were having a con very sausage about retaliating. Thats the background to what kind of leverage do we have in all of this . I would have thought that that might have actually given us a better relationship, more unfluns, but it doesnt appear to be the case. Well, a couple of things. First on the retaliation question. In my mind there is no question that israel will respond in some fashion. It will need to both in terms of its domestic politics, but more importantly in terms of its regional dynamics. What that looks like, what timeline its on, what mode it takes is still open to question. Thats where the debate is happening. In terms of its point, i think its true that what the United States did alongside other europeans and even with the help of some arab states was very forceful in saying to israel this can be a new strategic position for is reeling and the region. That holds weight within israel. Whether it holds sufficient weight to keep israel from doing something that is ka lats further is still an unknown. I think what we did see this weekend is even though we had a clear falling out between Bibi Netanyahu and President Biden, that the u. S. israel relationship is still very strong. So theres still the ability to, you know, make the case that iran can be held accountable. And i think if i were an israeli leader, you cant dismiss that and you cant dismiss the situation we saw. Its important, significant, wu also fragile. I had one arab leader say to me that the continuation and the deepening of these partnerships we saw manifest on saturday night really depend on israeli restraint. So if israel wants to capitalize on this new reality, it will require a recalibration of their response. Do you believe if there is retaliation that you could retaliate, if you will, without escalating and creating more retaliation . Well, of course, i believe that there is a world in which that is possible. Rye tall yags does not have to mean you know, the worst kind of retaliation is something being considered and advocated by some as not only striking, israel striking on iran, but striking Irans Nuclear facilities, taking this as an opportunity that israel has seen as a threat for a long time. Thats the most extreme. But there are also nonkinetic responses. There are cyber kinetic cyber responses. There are diplomatic responses. I think israel will want to go beyond the diplomatic, but i think exactly how far it goes toward the extreme side of the spectrum is very much an open question. Whether this escalates, again, there are two parties in this conflict, and so some of that will have to do with how iran sees its options as well. How much of this is performative . Someone described what iran did as performative insofar as it was telegraphed days prior. Having said that, of course, there were many missiles and drones in the air, and if one of theld would have struck, it would not have been as performative. How do you think about that word even . I know this is a debate. I feel very strongly or come out on the side that its very hard to look at the scale of this response and consider it performative. I think that the collective response of israel, the United States, arab states, the uk couldnt have been taken as a given, and certainly iran was taking a huge risk in waging that kind of response. What we can see from that response is that iran, although it may another want a larger war, it is willing to take the rusk that a larger war would develop because it sees it as essential to establish itself and make clear to the world its a rise in power in the region, its a power that can protect itself interests, that it will respond to the attack in syria that happened ten days prior. And, you know, iran seeing itself as a threshold. It sees itself as part of this emerging partnership with russia, china, north korea. Russia is courting iran now rather than the other way around. In light of this new feeling of power that iran has in the region, it felt it needed to respond, was willing to take a risk of wider action. You just talked about russia and china, we had david sanger here who has a new book out which he describes as the new cold war, which is a fascinating read. But, look, we have obvious lu a terrible relationship with russia for a lot of the right reasons. With i have this differe