Melissa . Im melissa lee. Lets take a look at the markets and how were shaping up now ahead of the key fed decision. The dow hit an alltime high with the s p just points away from its own as you see here hogging the flat line in that 2 00 decision dow is flat up by 6 1 2 points s p down by two. Take a look at rates this may be the headline of the markets here, the yield on the ten year sinking to the lowest level since november 10. As for equities, energy, the worst performing secotor as oil falls on bear supply data. Chevron and exxon dragging on the dow. Financials falling ahead of todays fed meeting. Morgan stanley, bank of america and citi lagging today brian . Thank you. We are going to get the latest on the virginia shooting in one minute even on a day like today we cannot forget our core mission on cnbc which is your money and the Financial Markets. Do not forget the Federal Reserve will make an Interest Rate call in under one hours time the expectation is another Interest Rate increase this could all come down to the language the fed uses. Steve liesman is about to go into the Federal Reserve lockup. Before he does, he joins us with what exactly investors need to be looking for and listening for in todays announce. Steve . Reporter brian, it was going to be a boring rate hike meeting became more interesting with the release of weak data the consensus is it could prompt one or more dissents its more were likely to emerge from the statement and the press conference with less certainty about the direction of policy. Take a look at the tenyear melissa was talking about. It fell sharply in the wake of the two data reports this morning. It hasnt been this low since november 10th, two days after the election the yield has fall en nearly 50 basis points from its post election high. Economists said, quote, we now expect this afternoons fomc statement to include a stronger acknowledgement of the recent soft inflation data. And over at pantheon, if this trend continues through the summer, then the next hike, which we have been expecting in september, will be delayed you can see here the feds low inflation problem. Unemployment is near a 16year low but inflation now has fallen for the past four months heading away from the feds 2 target. At least what this data will mean is a pause and talk of a tighter fed after today until the inflation and the growth data clarify one way or the other this summer, brian all right, steve. Were going to hear from you in a few minutes. Thank you very much. Well, now to the shooting at a congressional baseball practice in alexandria, virginia. Congressman Steve Scalise was shot, in the hospital recovering the shooter a former home inspector is dead. Kayla tausche is live at the scene. Eamon javers at the white house. Kayla, the latest on what we know reporter brian, at this hour we are learning more about James Hodgkinson, the 66yearold illinois man now deceased who opened fire on a congressional baseball practice here in alexandria early this morning in the 7 00 hour. Police here in alexandria have said its too early to determine a motivation for the action and the shooting hodgkinson took early this morning but we are learning that he not only had a criminal record, he was approached as recent ly as marc by police for shooting a firearm in a residential neighborhood, but he was also a very politically charged scitizen where he lived in the 2012 Election Year he sent frequent letters to the editor of his local newspaper, the Belleville News democrat his letters concerned the need to tax the rich, and he frequently cited the work of robert reich he said in one letter that is quoted on the newspapers website today, i have never said that life sucks, only the policies of the republicans. That is what he wrote in one of his letters to the editor of that newspaper earlier today representative jeff duncan of South Carolina said that he spoke to who he believed he was the shooter when he left practice this morning who asked who was playing on the field, republicans or democrats, and he said republicans. And we are now learning that hodgkinson was also apparently a volunteer for the president ial campaign of bernie sanders, the vermont senator, speaking and addressing that on the floor earlier this morning the alleged shooter at the republican baseball practice this morning is someone who apparently volunteered on my president ial campaign. I am sickened by this despicable act, and let me be as clear as i can be violence of any kind is unacceptable in our society, and i condemn this action in the strongest possible terms reporter leadership on the hill as well as the president of the United States spoke today urging unity among both parties and among the citizens of this country. Brian, we should also note the baseball game those republican lawmakers were practicing for, an annual Charity Event that was slate d to happen tomorrow is expected to go on. Back to you. Kayla tausche, thank you. Now lets get to eamon javers it at the white house with reaction from there reporter hi, melissa theyve been changing the schedule around here today in response to whats happened. The president we saw in the diplomatic room earlier today where he revealed to the country the alleged shoot thor here had died of his wounds the president also took the opportunity to call for a moment of national unity. Heres what he said earlier today. We may have our differences, but we do well in times like these to remember that everyone who serves in our nations c capital is here because, above all, they love our country reporter and, melissa, we saw a briefing here by ivanka trump speaking to report eers w were brought in off camera she echoed her fathers comments from this morning in terms of the reaction here at the white house. Also were being informed just within the past few minutes here theyre not going to do any briefing or gaggle here with reporters today. They want the focus very much to be on Law Enforcement, the incident this morning, and the president s comments well have no remarks from sean spicer or the other Top White House press aides here directly from the white house they say they are available, though, to answer questions throughout the day back to you, brian thank you, eamon. Former fbi assistant director joins us by phone. Chris, obviously today makes us think back to 2011, the shooting of gabrielle giffords, the congresswoman did survive. Others around her, though, did not. We talked about security for congressmen and women back then. We will no doubt talk about it again today. Any way to fully secure or should we try to secure 535 individuals . Well, the short answer is, no, you cant fully secure 535 congressmen and senators its just not practical. We may see that in the short term, but i think youll see more of an awareness on their awareness and training, events where you have a gathering of congressmen and senators, there is, indeed, good security. And it sounds like it was serendipitous today there were three Capitol Police because there was a Ranking Member there. This is yet another challenge for Law Enforcement and the fbi and the people responsible for the daytoday protection, the Capitol Police to get to the heart of the matter, the question is how did this man get his hands on firearms according to nbc the shooter, the alleged shooter, James Hodgkinson, was arrested for assaulting his girlfriend in 2006 how could he possibly get this gun . How does a guy, an ordinary guy up there in illinois make his way all the way down to alexandria, virginia, armed to the teeth with an ak47 and whatever else he had and a criminal record and do what he did today . My answer is the background check system is broken weve known that for a while it has so many holes in it particular ly when it comes to Mental Illness but to cases where theres no theres an arrest but not a disposition or an investigation but no arrest those types of cases completely fall through the cracks and the staff is under resourced they have to fix the system first. If you were investigating this situation, what would be your first question to ask in terms of determining whether or not he is actually the only one out there doing this or if he had some sort of, i dont know, partner. Yeah, that is the immediate question is he ideologically driven, are there others that share his ideology, were others enabling him . We find sometimes when we call these folks lone wolves there are, indeed, enablers behind the scenes that have kept quiet knowing they were going to do something or provided some low level of assistance like procuring the guns for them when they couldnt buy them themselves the focus is on him and the focus is on his social network and very quickly getting some answers to these questions since the best source of that information has passed speaking of social networks, a lot of people are going to want to blame things like social media. Is that, do you think, driving any of the violence or there are crazy people and this is what they will do yeah, i think its a factor because information gets out there so fast and likeminded people who share some sort of toxic ideology can get together pretty quickly and efficiently on these sites i would describe it as a bit of a facilitator but these types of things will happen anyway. Usually disturbed individuals who are flashing red there are signs all over the place. I bet well find with this individual that he was, as i said, flashing signs that he was unstable and about to do something. In terms of the investigation, a lot of people are say iing if you go on his Facebook Page, the alleged suspect, it does look like he is definitively antitrump and very aggressively so. As in the fbi how would you sor of search for the next potential . How do you prevent another incident like this from happening . Do you scour peoples social media page and take a look at the level of their rhetoric and overlay that with a background check of some sort well, until 9 11 you couldnt do that. You had to have some sort of predication, a certain level to open up an investigation they now have the ability because of the patriot act and some changes to do what they call a threat assessment which is that they can check media, social media, to see if theres any type of action or speech that looks like it will transcend or morph into violent action thats difficult theres a lot of sites out there. You have dark websites, deep websites, chat, blogs. Its a very difficult task with the resources that they have yeah, and its amazing that facebook, as of the last time i checked about ten minutes before the show, had not taken down his account yet and all you need to know about the state of partisanship in america right now you can glean from the comments on that guys Facebook Page facebook, you need to take that down chris swecker, thank you for joining us up next our panel of experts weighs in on todays fed rate call what they are hoping to hear the heat map, h r block. Qupower lunch back in two minutes. As a benchmark for average. Yet a lot of people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. But investing isnt about achieving average. Its about achieving goals. And invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of highconviction investing. Translation . Why invest in average . So, how are things cartheyise . Youre fired [ screaming ] its time to get back on top. Were going back to villainy. So bad so good that im so bad. [ maniacal laugh ] dont try to fight the feeling of somethin thats so organic. [ pop ] despicable me 3. Rated pg. The dow hit a new record high the tenyear yield hitting its lowest level this as investors await what they believe will be a fed rate hike later on at the top of the hour whats going on . Global strategic adviser at pimco and head of strategist at boston private good to have you here, guys. We have some data. Is it that simple . Weve had now three months in a row of some disappointing Inflation Numbers. I expect today the fed will try to overlook that and get the rate hike in theyre noticing it. Because of the Economic Data this morning, the retail sales that were weak, the inflation that was weak. Suddenly all this certainty, theyre going to be hiking certain number of times this year, is that out the window as a result potentially and then you bring the bond portfolio into the discussion as well which we would have liked to hear more about today. Theyre going to have a pick today, talk about gdp, the unemployment or inflation rate can they talk about all three . Which data point is most important to them and what matters the most what do you do then as a result i think from a positioning standpoint you need to think about whats most likely to happen i think the probability of a rate hike later this year is going to decrease after the statement. I think its really important you list en to the language around reinvestment. It is con scentrated on the shot end, they have the latitude to be flexible about what they reinvest and what they dont i think well see the market move based on that statement so to underline we were focused on what the unwind would look like and now as a result of the Economic Data this morning were back to asking basic questions about whether or not theyre going to hike rates. They said they wanted to get the process to be well under way. This is the fourth hike that probably now counts. Im with you for the rest of the year they probably will want to roll out the policy whornt we get the third rate hike in will depend on the data. Do they do it in a good way, though the big fear is just be clear on this can they unwind it without financial calamity they hope so. What do you think i think they can pull it off. It will make the process predictable and if there is any prediction theyll slow it down. Does it disturb you at all this is a grand experiment it has not happened before and we dont know what the tightening effects are of this unwind even absent another rate hike in the future it is a concern it has been an ongoing concern since the great recession. Now were going into a new phase of it. Potentially we hope late they are year all mark, we will be watching with everyone else. Were talking the fed, the ted, the fed, but they dont control it anymore is the yield curve telling us about the economy and should stock investors be worried its telling you youve had three months of weak inflation data for sure its telling you that they are in play, lower stimulus the yield curve doing what its doing put aside the fed. Right, and weve been talking about the fed for the last several years and from our perspective having i think were talking about the ramifications of the Balance Sheet but that can be used as a tool as well and we need to think about the fed being very flexible and being a little bit creative here as we go into the back half of the year particularly as we see this Economic Data softer we saw softening data and then a nice rebound into the fall i wouldnt necessarily chalk this up as the end of sort of the growth expectations for the rest of this year. We need to be cognizant of that as well. All of you are coming back. We have more to discuss. Im interested if they ask janet yellen if theyre looking for her replacement though shes not supposed to be done until 2024 crude oil dropping. Our next guestays e sthslide isnt over he joins us straight ahead you always pay your insurance on time. Tap one little bumper, and up go your rates. What good is having insurance if you get punished for using it . News flash nobodys perfect. For drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Switch and you could save 782 on home and auto insurance. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™ Liberty Mutual insurance. If youre surprised by the recent drop you probably havent been paying attention to the show weve been talking about, higher production, stagnant demand and cheating of opec nations. I wrote on my Facebook Page yesterday. He joins us now by phone, john, shocker, shocker, libya, iraq, nigeria, cheating, u. S. Oil production up. Any sign were going to see a bullish turn to crude oil prices no. It looks unlikely, brian as far as the situation with libya and nigeria in particular i think opec in particular underestimated their capabilities their capabilities of coming back they just didnt see their production coming back online. Thats the big problem here. They are all free to pump as much as they can or want to and thats undermining things. Up 387,000 barrels year over year production go up in iraq what would be the flip scenario what would make you turnbullish on oil prices . What would it take massive surge in global demand, surprise u. S. Production cut there are risks surrounding the situation with qatar the middle east really a hot one right now. Theres a lot of oil hanging in the balance there. Thats one next month potentially the saudis will put the pedal to the metal and save this by cutting exports to the United States in particular if they were to cut by up to 300,000 barrels per week thats a real difference maker, brian. That is something i will have to be watching out for. The saudis have leaked thats their plan this is their last stand on trying to battle and keep prices up by cutting production john kilduff, always a pleasure thank you for joining us thank you the latest in the virginia shooting a benchmark. 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