Wti down 2. 5 . The mid to high 44 a barrel range. Were going to get more on oil and the opec meeting going on in algeria in a little bit. Good news, oil slide not really hitting your stock investments. The dow regaining some of what it lost yesterday. The dow is up 131 points now. American express, cisco and ibm, some of your top performers on the dow. Welcome back. Tyler mathisen here and here is what else is happening in this hour. Wells fargo reportedly considering executive clawbacks in the wake of that fake Customer Account scandal. Will trade organizations slashing the global trade growth forecast for the year citing the slowdown in china. Welcome, im michelle carusocabrera. One down, two to go following an historic night at hofstra. We are already counting you down to the next big debate. Here at cnbc, we like to look at the betting markets to see where the money is going. Folks at predict it putting the odds of a clinton win at 67 versus 35 for trump. Clinton gaining six points from just 24 hours ago. Tell you also, the mexican peso trades today as if Hillary Clinton won the debate. Cnbcs john harwood is with us and has more. John . I think the consensus among political operatives i talked to, democrat and republican, match that of the betting markets. But the question is, is that going to make a difference in the numbers that we see. Hillary clinton has been ahead. Donald trump needs to make progress. But this may not move the needle. Were going to have to see. Donald trump needs more College Educated white women, men as well. I talked to one republican strategist who worked in the primaries for marco rubio and said by any traditional measure, Hillary Clinton cleaned his clock. However, based on the way events have gone in last year, hell probably go up in the polls. I was very curious about that. I would agree when i watched it all happen, i thought, okay, shes very well prepared, has all the quote unquote right answers, but ultimately, ive been very wrong about predicting the election the whole way, i wondered if he would get a bump when all of this is said and done . When will we know . I think when you look at good well done telephone polls by this weekend, youll have a sense of what is real and what isnt. Instant polls usually dont tell you that much. It is too close to the event. I would be surprised if donald trump gains what i suspect will happen is that some undecided voters who dont like either trump or clinton may come off the fence, may go to clinton, so maybe she gets a little bit of movement, i wouldnt expect his number to go down a lot. But didnt blow himself up necessarily. I dont think so. I think he got rattled. I think he didnt of the two of them, she looked more president ial. He looked more skas pexasperate. She put him on the defensive on taxes, business, racial attitudes, all that sort of thing. He didnt have strong comebacks on a lot of those. On the other hand, he did make the point that you are establishment, youve been there for 30 years, we have Foreign Policy problems, we have economic problems, you havent solved them. That is a fundamental message that favors him. That he delivered effectively over and over again in the early part of the she seemed to flip on trade. She stumbled mightily through the tpp answer. And very flustered at that point. That is the most that is i think the weakest policy point for Hillary Clinton. Because i think it is not credible that she actually opposes the Transpacific Partnership. She said she supported it, she never added the addendum, when it is finished. It is a fair point for people to say when it is finished im going to look at the details. Every politician does that. Democrat or republican. Paul ryan, for that matmatter, big free trader, has not said hes for it. Do i believe Hillary Clinton thinks that the Transpacific Partnership is in the best interest of the country and wants it to become enacted . Yes, i do. Stick around. Were going to talk more about the impact the debate may have on the election map, the map, the electoral map, the one that counts, folks. Larry sabato, welcome back. Does anything that happens on september 26th really matter on november 8th . In other words, will the voters remember this debate what was said, the style points, et cetera . They will remember it if they see it in some form or another repeated in the two remaining president ial debates. So donald trump has a chance to correct what was frankly a disastrous debate for him. It is impossible to put it in terms other than that. Clinton won hands down in debating style and in substance. Why do you see it that way . As strongly as you do . Because ive watched repeatedly every single president ial debate since they started in 1960, and this was the most one sided debate ever. It doesnt even come close and i invite you to go back and view all the other ones, youre too young. But ive seen it. Now. You are too young. There you go. Much too young. Any credence to what the republican strategist, john harwood, was quoting, by all conventional measures, Hillary Clinton won and yet he wouldnt be surprised if donald trump ends up with a bump in the polls . I dont believe hes going to get a bump at all. What i think will happen, and this will surprise people, it is not going to be any kind of giant gain for Hillary Clinton, because there arent that many people left to gain. You have hard undecided of Single Digits. Literally. Already down to Single Digits and you have some third party people who can be peeled off. There are plenty who cant be pee peeled off. Theyll vote for johnson, for stein. You can get some of them. I would guess, this is a guess, that she will pick up a point or two and well see that by the end of the week or the weekend, that point or two will help her to break the tie in many of the swing states where she has fallen dangerously. If it is true that if people agree that trump lost as disastrously as you seem to not the cnbc viewers. Well, let me finish my question. Do you think mr. Trump lost a single voter last night . Not any of the trump people i know. You remember what he said, you go out on fifth avenue and shoot somebody, and they would all still support him. Well, losing a debate is a lot less serious than shooting somebody. Theyre not going anywhere. You think hillary picked up some voters, a point or two, you say, why did she do that apart from her demeanor . Was there a moment in there where it went to the birther argument, where it went to mr. Trumps remarks alleged remarks about women, was that where she gained traction . No. It wasnt a single moment. Thats what was interesting about this debate. It was, in fact, Donald Trumps reaction to the key question of this debate. What have we seen in virtually every single survey since the beginning of the year. A large majority of americans do not believe that donald trump has the temperament to be president. All you had to do was watch 10 or 15 minutes, any 10 or 15 minutes of this debate, and donald trump answered that question. But not in the way he had hoped to. Larry, got one question for you about the impact of gary johnson and joe stein not being on the stage. Does the fact that they were absent and voters saw this big event without them, will that accelerate their decline and how low do you expect them to go in a year with Public Attitudes right now . John, you got it exactly right. This is what normally happens with even strong third party candidates. The exception was ross perot, but he got into the debates as of october. I think basically take gary johnson, he was flirting with 10 . There was some polls where he was 12, 13, even up to 15 in some states. I think hes eventually going to go down to 4, 5, 6. Jill stein was as high as 4 or so in the polling averages at one point. Shes going to go down to a percent. Hey, larry, brian sullivan. I was jumping im sorry about that. Im pushing back on the idea im hearing, not just here, but everywhere, where Hillary Clinton clearly won the debate, so lets move on. 68 of cnbc viewers disagree with that. A drudge report, very conservative, has it at 82 . I wonder how much of us all sitting up here with very fine College Degrees can speak for america where twothirds of the country did not go to college and maybe they think trump cleaned her clock. We dont know. Well, cnbc voters are not a random sample as you know. Theyre highly intelligent and very able people. And they say trump won. And they say trump won. Of course they think trump won. Why . Think about it. Why would you say that . The people who watch you are conservative, theyre investors, business men, they are a part of the trump coalition, or john mccain and mitt romney won all the debates the last two elections. Well, and actually you bring up an important point, remember mitt romney won that first debate with barack obama by a mile. And for a week or two, he gained points in the polls and then they all disappeared. Now, i wouldnt be shocked if whatever Hillary Clinton gains she loses in time if she cant sustain this in the next two president ial debates. Well, and im saying that im not saying our audience is one way or the other. I get called a liberal loon all the time. I have no idea. I hope youre right. Thats just tyler. Thats just tyler, exactly. Liberal loan . All acc up here. But i guess my point is simply that we can say that, but maybe the rest of america doesnt feel that way. I dont know. Youre making a point that we i said a lot on the air yesterday, which is we all have a establishment ears, and we hear through an establishment lens and im not sure and larry, you are establishment. I dont think those old debates, i dont think those matter anymore. This is a whole new world. This, by the way, this is why you should always root for duke against uva, because uva is the establishment and duke is the scrappy underdog. Uva is so far superior to duke, or any other school. And that really revealed your bias. Terrible bias. Larry, thanks a lot. Always good to see you. Thank you very much. Larry sabato of the university of virginia. Jeffersons biggest mistake. Thank you, john harwood. Five year notes up for auction. Rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. Direct bidders were absent here, rick. Yes, they were. But they have been more largely absent just three auctions agone. But we had 33 billion five year notes hitting the market not many minutes ago. 1. 129. So 1129. The pricing was a business messy. I saw 112 1 2, 239, close to ten auction average. As melissa lee just referred to, the direct bidders 4. 4, about half the ten auction average. But as you look back in time, we had 3. 7 in june, so i gave it a c minus, charlie minus, like yesterday, all that is left is sevenyear notes and everybody should continue to monitor the big move in boons toward the negative yield side. One debate down, two to go. The next one less than two weeks away. What do they need to do to deliver . Inside both campaigns next. The one thing you can do on social media that will make airlines listen to your complaint. We want to hear that. Thats still ahead. Back in two. [loud techno music playing] announcer if you drive buzzed, it could cost you around 10,000. Youll face major legal fees, major fines, and steep insurance penalties. You could lose everything. Buzzed, busted, and broke. Because buzzed driving is drunk driving. My name is jamir dixon and im a locafor pg e. 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Donald trump and Hillary Clinton skwarg oquaring off on of issues. We want to tackle the money issue from both sides. Catherine hart and neil wool, a clinton supporter. Neil, thank you very much for joining us here. Lets start off, a lot of positives. John harwood, and larry sabato, they believe she sort of, quote, won the debate. Lets talk about the trade issue. Do you think her switch a bit on trade hurts her . I dont think so, brian. First of all, good to be with you. She said when she was secretary of state that she was very much working toward and on a trade deal that would be a Gold Standard trade deal. She left the secretary of state job and the deal, negotiations continued. She took a look at those details when the deal was finally reached as anyone would and made the judgment which she described quite clearly that it wasnt up to her standards. It was insufficient from the perspective of creating jobs, protecting american workers, and advancing our National Security. Do you think she has to clarify her position on it . She called it the Gold Standard, wrote about it. I thought it was trumps strongest moment in the debate. Is she going to have to further clarify exactly where she stands on the tpp . I think, brian, shes been very clear about this. The deal as it was being worked on was something that everyone aspired to be the Gold Standard of trade deals when it was finally completed. It didnt live up to her expectation or standards. She talked about whyclearly i td trump laid out last night was a canard, before the deal was done, she hoped it would be the kind of High Standard deal they were working toward and when it was finished, she looked at the specifics and said, no. Who won on trade last night . I think the i think on trade, what you have is a candidate in donald trump who says i want to shut down our access to our market, wants to create barriers, things like who won . I think Hillary Clinton clearly won. Shes for trade. Shes for trade. Shes for high quality trade deals. She laid that out. And her opponent is against trade and wants to batten down the hatches and retrench. I think thats not a recipe for Economic Growth. Not a recipe for u. S. Leadership and i think hillary laid out a clearly Winning Strategy on trade, which is we want high quality trade deals. I want to put you to put your hat on as former coo. Yesterday, mr. Trump continued on the notion that janet yellen isnt doing her job, shes allowing obama to go off and retire to the golf course peacefully. If you were the ceo or coo, would you say, thats a good thing, we do want rates to rise or would you think thats going to be a much more destabilizing force if you have a president in Office Taking direct shots, pot shots at the chairwoman . Well, you know, i think that the idea that the fed is being motivated by politics here is absolutely without merit. I think if you read the statements of the fomc, they lay out where they are and why in a thoughtful, detailed way. I think it is for the fed to make judgments looking at all the Data Available to it as to when and how to raise rates. And if i were the coo of the hartford, which im not, i would be comfortable with that approach. Neal, thank you very much for your time. Thank you. To the other side, cakathlee hartnet white. How do you think donald trump did last night . I thought he did well. I thought both candidates did well. If there is anything still to offer about this debate, might be how voters are viewing the performance of the two candidates. And you had a clear contrast in temperament or personality and clear contrast in policy, particularly when they each shared their economic policyies. For donald trump, you have a Bold Business man, actor, decisionmaker. And in Hillary Clinton, you have a very well seasoned, highly articulate lifetime member of the most elite of our government. And that was very clear and just if you look turn the page on what was the core of their environmental policies, excuse me, of their economic policies, donald trump wants to unleash private investment and, excuse me, free enterprise. Mrs. Clinton, far more favors Government Solutions and the use of taxpayers money in the form of subsidies. Kathleen. To stimulate Economic Growth. How about the issue of his temperament. Later half of the debate, he did a lot of what we often see him do, tends to riff on issues and go off on tangents. Was that damaging last night . Did that feed into the narrative that Hillary Clinton tries to paint of him . I dont think it is damaging to the majority of his supporters who think those traits of donald trump really are a humanizing him and i think that they can actually identify with his style much more than they can the very, very scripted approach that mrs. Clinton has. I was a little surprised, i must say, at the point where mr. Trump was deriding our infrastructure, most especially our airports, third world. That he didnt take that opportunity to talk about his plans and expenditures to improve infrastructure. Why didnt he do that and why didnt she . I think thats a great question. I had the very same response. Again, those two starkly different economic models, but they both think we have a great need to bring up to speed our infrastructure. Hillary clinton would largely be through public investment, a version of that we had in the first four years of president obamas administration. Donald trump on the other hand would be more likely to see it as somet