Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160726 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160726

Today . Speech therapy, trying to deal with the mutiny that was coming as a result of Bernie Sanders supporters who did not want to give in. After a storm calls for unity is the headline in the philadelphia inquirer. As the night went on it looked like the bernie supporters had finally calmed down. You heard john harwood report earlier about how Sarah Silverman told them they were being, quote, ridiculous. And that seems to have helped. Lets see what happens tonight with the big headliner. Former president bill clinton, historically hes always a crowd pleaser. But, guys, he has run into trouble with the black lives matter protests as hes been on the campaign trail a couple of times. But you can assume this is probably going to be a pretty friendly crowd tonight. Lets get over to brian and tyler back at cnbc headquarters. All right, michelle, thank you very much. So a ton in the Business World going on as well. Your power lunch menu seems very appropriate today because mcdonalds is the big drag on yourdisappointing. It is bringing really the entire dow industrial average down. You look at the headline, it looks like a bad day, but about half the dow stocks are actually higher. So has the recent mcdonalds magic thanks to allday breakfast finally become toast . We dig into that. But also a host of other restaurants are getting fried with downgrades today. There is new concern seemingly over the consumer. We are digging in on all of this with our allstar panel of food analysts, tyler. Lets start with mcdonalds and lets bring in btigs peter solay. He has a buy rating on mcdonalds and a 137 price target. Peter, youre not so worried i guess. Thanks for having me on. No, look, it was a poor quarter. We cant sugar coat it. It was a poor quarter. They are continuing to take a lot of market share. The market share gains were similar this quarter as they were last quarter. The industry slowed and that does happen from time to time. Our sense is we continue to create more jobs in this country, which we believe thats going to continue to happen, i think we should see another sales acceleration. It was a poor quarter but i think they can rebound from it. Youre not alone in observing that some of the restaurant stocks have faced headwinds this past quarter. Why do you think that is . I mean, they seem to have a lot going for them particularly with the broadening of the Breakfast Menu into all day. Yeah, the entire industry slowed. Is there any smoking gun as to why. Not sure. We had some poor jobs numbers intraquarter, i think it was the may jobs number was pretty weak. I dont know if that played a part. We had some rough weather. You know, there could be a number of things why it slowed for one quarter. But, again, i think theyve got theyre on trajectory to gain more market share and that market share gain continues quarter in and quarter out. Whats your price target again . 137. 137 from 121. Peter, thanks very much for being with us. Peter saleh of btig. Lets bring in insider cnbc contributor and very well known restaurateur. Tim, thanks very much. You heard that previous interview. Heres my question though, i am convinced the one thing people are still eating. So if theyre not going to mcdonalds as much, they must be going somewhere else or sitting at home and cooking. What are you seeing from Restaurant Trends as a restaurant owner. Well, as he said, you know, the comps have been down as well in the fast food segment. But if you think about the things that happened with mcdonalds, one of them is when they started the allday breakfast, you see the surge in sales and surge in the price of the stock. But also you got to remember at the same time chipotle was having problems. So with those two things happening, you kind of saw what i would say a little bit more of a push in mcdonalds than you really should have seen. Now the market is just settling. And understanding whats happening you see chipotle moving forward even though sales werent great. Their stock is moving forward. The confidence in chipotle is moving forward. I think that affects mcdonalds a little bit. At the same time i dont think people really cooking at home, theres just a lot more options. Uhhuh. And while breakfast was a great idea and still is all day long, eventually that settles and they need something new to spark it. Were seeing big changes. Were trying to get healthier, tim. We see some of these sweet green types minichains as youd call them pop up, although looking at 10 or 12 a salad at some of these places. Do you think the trend against the traditional fast food will ever really die . Everyones been predicting the death of it for a long time. And guess what, theyve been wrong. Thats right. You know, the majority of people are still going to eat the 2 special whereas all the people in the press and the people all around it want to talk about the great Healthy Options that are giving you 12 salads and things like that and all these great new fast casual concepts that are coming up. At the end of the day when you look at people spending money, they want to spend it cheaply. Thats whats keeping mcdonalds in business no doubt. Help our viewers and listeners, tim, make a little money. Your job, one of them, is to spot trends. If they were going to invest not in a stock but a restaurant concept or trend, where would you go . Whats the next thing . I think, you know, if you see a chicken concept that comes about that goes public, i would invest in that. People are really, really getting behind chicken concepts these days. And im not talking about the old school row titisserie chick one thats more flashy and more style. At the same time i wouldnt let go of mcdonalds. Its one of those brands that will eventually get itself right. And the ceo now definitely has some great ideas. And hes adventurous enough to try them. Which i think has been a stigma for mcdonalds in the past. When you look at these different fast Food Concepts that are coming up, anything can happen, but quite honestly, i mean, you see these donut concepts. I would latch onto one of those. Flashy chicken concepts and donut concepts. Tim, stick around you just named my new Fantasy Football Team name. Were going to a news alert in the bond market. Fiveyear notes up, back with tim in a second. Rick. Ill tell you what, tyler, i know yesterdays twoyear wasnt good. The fiveyear is pretty much not any better. The grade, i gave it a d. Should have probably given it a dminus. Had such a long tail like yesterday if this was lassie, front paws wouldnt be on the ground. Yielded 1. 18, the market trading 1. 165, arguably 1. 16. Yesterday was 1. 5 basis point tail, today was every bit of that depending on how sharp your pencil was. And yesterdays bidtocover the worst since 08. This is 2. 27 the worst since july of 09. 53. 6 on indirects, thats the weakest just since february of this year. 4. 7 on directs while last auction was 3. 7. Youd have to go through a ream of paper to find a lower one. Listen, whether its 2s or 5s, theyre all mostly on the short end. I think theres a lot of data fed implications here. Tomorrow well get our final clue, but backtoback dogs, back to you. Thank you very much. Lets continue this fast food feast. We have a buffet of restaurant stocks getting hit with downgrades today. Several wall street firms turning sour on several of these names. Tim love is still with us. Lets add bob darington who downgraded two of them, texas roadhouse and chewys. Welcome. Thank you. I know when you downgraded these two companies it was less because you have a problem with how theyre doing but more that theyve done so doggone well for you. Listen, to be fair, these are two of the best performing casual dining Restaurant Companies in the industry. If you look at the stock Price Performance over the last 12 months, you know, both of them are up well over 30 . And in our view i dont want to say theyre priced to perfection, but at the level at which theyve been trading they both literally exceeded our target price. Exceeded target price, theyre working well, theyre up powerfully over the last six months or thereabouts. And at the same time, bob, you see some headwinds in this casual dining space. Why are they there . Does it have anything to do with peoples fatigue at going out and eating at yet another chain restaurant . I think thats part of it. If you look at the sequential deceleration in Industry Trends since the beginning of this calendar year, each month its gotten a little bit worse. June was a horrendous quarter for the industry. I dont care whether you look at the black box, industry indes it was an abysmal month with traffic trends down 3. 5 broadly. As we look forward there are industry headwinds coming up where theres going to be less benefit from commodity prices, labor cost pressures on the horizon, less menu pricing restaurant chains can take when consumers are benefitting from the Grocery Store prices being down as they are. So directionally, with two having the performance and price as they were. But how do you explain then the fact june was such a bad month . And id like you to address one of the things thats sort of unspoken but worrying around in the ether somewhere and that is americans may be concerned that theyre not safe when they go out. Thats a real fair point. Part thats a contributing factor to the industry malaise. I think theres a National Court in the mind of many consumers. My view is at this point in time where the uncertainty is creeping into the back of their mind, theyre going to spend a little more. Tim, let me ask you to react to that same sort of concept, with all the frightening things that are going on around the world. Another attack today in normandy, france. So horrific i wont even describe it. But do you think that that fear that people arent safe is restraining peoples willingness to go out and spend in restaurants . I think its restraining their willingness to spend period. And i think when there are that kind of things, again, you know, weighing on their consciousness, i think theyre cautious about their Household Budget and where they spend and how much they spend. Let me get tims thought on that. Tim. Yes, sir. I think that, you know, its a major point. And in fact my wife and i just discussed the other day the fact that there is fear in going out. I mean, my wife was running on the trail today and called me on her phone to make sure she knew i was on the trail. Its those types of things that keep people from spending money all the time. Fear makes people hoard things, no doubt about it. We celebrate over food all the time. If theres no purpose of celebration, it causes us not to go out and eat. And you can see that trend happening over the summer for sure. Fascinating. Bob, tim, brian asked a great question, which was whats the next trend in food. And tim said flashy chicken concepts and donuts. What do you see as the next trend . You know, my own view is that directionally as the Consumer Population continues to age, i think theyll be more demand for purees. Prechewed food. You know. Whether its salads. Whether its food like panera serves, i think theres a real consciousness in the mind of consumers about what they eat and how much they eat. Now, dont get me wrong, fast foods going to be around. But i clearly think theres an element what about panera . What about paneras actually healthy though . I love the way you said that. People are going to eat healthy stuff like panera. I want to know i want a real definition of what that is. Because that is the most unrealistic comment ive ever heard in my life. Have you had their soup . Cream of everything soup. Come on. Really, that makes you healthy . Fits with the idea of foods you dont need to chew. Its the perception consumers have about the food. To be fair the calorie counts are on paneras menu in every cafe in the country. So they know what theyre getting. That doesnt make it healthy. Tim likes flashy chicken and bob likes food you can gum. Gentlemen, thank you very much. I guess so. Bob derington and tim love. Going to call it the parrot cheek cafe because you know how parrots store food in their cheeks and bring it back up a couple weeks later for their little chick lets. Big day, folks, for earnings. Twitter and apple report after the bell. Both stocks having a rough year. What to watch for today is still ahead. But first, send it back to michelle at the dnc in philly where they got cheesesteaks. Whats happening, michelle . I cant wait to have one either, tyler. Coming up, Hedge Fund Founder orin kramer talk about what the democrats have to do to win the white house in november. Power lunch after this. A good car has to maneuver quickly. Thats also true of a good car company. People have always bought cars. But we saw an opportunity in sharing cars. So we moved fast and launched car2go in 29 cities, all around the world. Doing that required dozens of data centers, designed for speed and performance. We built our business on the ibm cloud. Because thats what the ibm cloud is built for. Announcer when they test you, stand firm and move only when you hear the seatbelt click that says theyre buckled in for the drive. Never give up till they buckle up. Welcome back to power lunch. Coming to you live from the Wells Fargo Center in philadelphia for day two of the Democratic National convention. John harwood is on the floor of the dnc right now here at the Wells Fargo Center. John, were looking at a pi yan thats there on the floor. So if some singing starts, we know theyre practicing for the night. You got your strong mike ready, correct . I got my mike, my double ear piece, ive got everything. And, michelle, our countrys going to make a little history on this floor tonight. Hillary clinton is going to be nominated as the first woman to head a Major Party Ticket in American History by a roll call vote of the delegates who will be seated on this floor where im standing right now. Now, the chief concern of democrats is to portray an image of a party coming together. Bernie sanders did his part for that with his Convention Speech last night. He did it again this morning when he told his followers at the california delegation its time to fall in line. It is easy to boo, but it is harder to look your kids in the face who would be living under a donald trump presidency. Now, of course theres a fine line between allowing sanders supporters to express their enthusiasm and letting it turn into an antihillary demonstration. The corp horeography of all tha still being worked out. Vermont and Bernie Sanders himself may play a starring role in that roll call. This is something the type of unity move weve seen in the past. In 2008 barack obama at the end of a roll call or in the middle of it was nominated by acclamation by who else . Hillary clinton. Now, of course Hillary Clintons husband, bill clinton, the former president , is the star speaker in the 10 00 hour tonight. And this is a guy, michelle, who knows how to talk to democrats. Yeah, absolutely. I expect that and tell me if you think im wrong, but i expect hes going to be like Michelle Obama and help bring down the house. Or is there any chance that hes going to face boos like we saw last night . I was struck last night, john, i was watching pbz news hour for my coverage in the early hours. And they said repeatedly that when Hillary Clintons name was brought up, she was booed. But Donald Trumps name was brought up and not booed hardly at all. I mean, is that put to bed finally after the chiding they got from people like Sarah Silverman last night and Michelle Obamas speech as well . Well, i think democrats made some progress through the course of the day. There was a loud displeasure being voiced during the day, forced Debbie Wasserman schultz out. She got booed at her home states delegation. There was some noise being made on the floor. But silverman tried to put a little cork in it. And then you had with Michelle Obama, Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders more progress. Id be surprised, michelle, if they boo bill clinton the former president. Of course hes not the candidate this time. But its going to be interesting to see whether bill clinton has still got the ability to light this place on fire. He did that four years ago for barack obama defending his economic record. That was considered a high point of Barack Obamas 2012 convention. Four years later, four years older, well see what kind of energy he brings. Yep, thank you, john. And, tyler, theres almost no doubt that bill clinton will speak for a long time, as he tends to do, tyler. He is known at these conventions to give long, long, long expository speeches. I think the president described him as the explainer in chief after the last one. Stick around, michelle, because with us now is the noted political consultant and analyst dick morris, former advisor to president bill clinton. But his new book is called armageddon how trump can beat hillary. Its currently number one on amazons best seller list. Good to have you here. Good to be here, thank you. I want to begin with a couple things as i scan through here you say among other things a Hillary Clinton presidency would be cataclysmic. Make no mistake about it if Hillary Clinton is elected president , the end of the america we know and love, the end of our sovereign democracy and the transformation of our political system to a european model of social welfare will take place. 25, 20 years ago when the last clinton was in the white house, i think americans remember it as a pretty good time, a time when the economy thrived, when jobs were growing, incomes were moving up a little bit. The budget was balanced. The nation was at peace. And i was the chie

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