Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20160722

And it will be much more reflective of the kind of relationship that we should have with our neighbors. Mr. President , thank you. Thank you. Thank you so much. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thank you, thank you, thank you. President obama along with mexican president pena nieto talking about a variety of topics including immigration, drugs, the flow of weapons above and below the border with the United States as well as trade and the nafta issues raised by mr. Trump last night, Transpacific Partnership among other things. Well have much more coverage of the politics of the day, but first, lets go to sue herera with the latest on a shooting at a Shopping Mall in munich, germany. Thats exactly right,ty. Nbc news can confirm that there have been shots fired, there has been a shooting at the olympia Shopping Mall, which is in munich. Now, this mall was built for the summer olympics in 1972, hence the name olympia. It has grocery stores. It has department stores, restaurants and cafes, about 130 various outlets at that Shopping Mall in munich. Now, dow jones is reporting multiple injuries. This is eyewitness video. You can see people running from the Shopping Mall. Various News Agencies reporting deaths and casualties. Nbc has not been able to officially confirm those, so were not going with any numbers. There are some wide ranging numbers as to the possible of casualties. We know theres been a number of injuries confirmed by nbc news. The police are telling nbc that the situation is over, however were getting in some footage that shows police still responding. There is a heavy Police Presence responding to the situation at this Shopping Mall in munich. Germany has been on high alert and are on high alert. They had a train accident happen earlier this week, and france extended their state of emergency for another three months after the bastille day attack that occurred just a week or so ago. Theres a live picture outside the Shopping Mall, the olympia Shopping Mall in downtown munich. Again, it is a large Shopping Mall built in 1972 because thats when the summer olympics were being held. It was a venue used by the press and then converted into a Shopping Mall afterwards. Dow jones reporting multiple injuries, some of the german outlets are reporting casualties and deaths, but nbc news has not been able to independently confirm that. Were continuing to watch a very fluid situation in downtown munich, germany, at a Shopping Mall there. Multiple injuries. The police have responded. The police have told nbc news that the incident is over. It doesnt look like it from that video however. So were going to continue to monitor it. T ty, turn it back to you. All right. Sue herera, thank you very much. Donald trumps night at the convention, disastrous trade deals, poverty, crippling trade debt, those are just some of the words mr. Trump used last night to describe the situation at the rnc. Are things just as bad as that . Well find out on power lunch straight ahead. Im Tyler Mathisen and sarah eisen. Were going to kick things off with trumps take on the economy as you mentioned. Steve liesman watched the entire speech, so, steve, whats the real read on the economy versus what we heard from donald trump last night . Right. Well, there is to put it mildly some space lets put it between the bleak picture of the economy laid out last night by the fiery donald trump. And view of most economists differences range from the macro, thats the overall picture of a decrepe id economy. Our trade deficit in goods reached nearly, think of this, our trade deficit is 800 billion. Think of that. 800 billion last year alone. Were going to fix that. And this is a great example because donald trump is nearly exactly right on this number. Its not 800 billion. The correct number is 762 billion. But notice he said the trade deficit for goods. That of course ignores the 262 billion trade surplus the u. S. Enjoys in services, which is the way most economists look at it. Taken together so net is what . 500 billion in 2015. You can see 261 billion. And the worst year we ever had which was 2006, another way economist look at percentage of gdp, 70 basis points below the 20year average. One more. Nearly four in ten africanamerican children are living in poverty. While 58 of africanamerican youth are now not employed. Again, truth in the overall sense here. Black youth unemployment is way above the level of white youth. And it is a severe problem. Unfortunately, the rate used by most economists is 31 for black youth unemployment from 16 to 19, thats around half the number trump used. One more here, guys. Another 14 Million People have left the workforce entirely. Household incomes are down more than 4,000 since the year 2000. Thats 16 years ago. Again, both facts are right, but most research most Economic Research suggests that many as half of the 14 million theyve left because theyve retired. Remember the baby boomers . Theyre leaving the workforce. In the past couple years the Participation Rate has grown a slight 0. 3 . Looks to have halted. The downward trend that began around 2000. And accelerated during the obama years on income true as far as it goes, medium income cratered in 2008, 09, and 10, bottomed out in 2012. Some do blame the policy of obama not for its falling but for not bringing it back to prior levels. Most indications its risen reasonably well in 2015. What matters to my opinion, guys, is are we having a policy debate about a u. S. Economy that needs wholesale overhaul or changes to existing basic policy sns. Lets bring in john siylvia, what do you make of those numbers, john . It was a pretty bleak picture. As steve describes it, maybe its not as bleak as mr. Trump would have it with his use of the facts as he sees them. Where are you on this . Well, ill pick up on one of the comments that steve made. Labor force Participation Rates, basically f youre looking at the trend of the economy, youre getting about 2 growth, which actually is fairly consistent with the gains in productivity and labor force Participation Rates. So the economy looks like its a 2 trend. And if you want stronger growth in the u. S. Economy, youve got to deal with improving productivity at the same time as improving that labor force Participation Rate. Lets talk a little bit more about one of the things that we started to talk about yesterday, steve, and that was incomes. That comment on 4,000 lower income. I think that really excuse me, taps into the appeal of mr. Trump. Absolutely. Is that there are a lot of people who have not seen their wages go up much, wage growth has come back a little bit this year, as you pointed out. But they are really calm. There are a lot of people who are underearning. And these may be older, white males, largely. And their children who dont see a path forward. So i think one of the things donald trump has tapped into, and i applaud him for this, and i really, you know, criticize the Current Establishment in the following way. I think john and i would agree, trade is really good for most economies. But theres fallout from trade. And one of the places weve seen stagnant income is you had a person with a really good manufacturing job. You look at the, for example, employment in the textile business. It was devastated in a way that you ever see few industries devastated. Go to danville, virginia. You know these places, tyler, i know you go down there. You go through some of these places with the big textiles. And what we have not done is we havent taken care of these folks. And i dont know, john, maybe you know, theres general criticism in the Economic Research about these policies that help people who have been hurt by trade. And we havent figured out a good way to deal with the displacement and what happens to people from free trade. When we talk about black unemployment or hispanic unemployment, youth unemployment, as well as trade displacement, its really more microeconomics. It isnt this big picture macro story, but it is improving the educational system and focusing on retraining workers rather than just worrying about kids going to college. And we sort of glamorize going to college, but we havent really focused on retraining displaced workers and really getting kids to finish high school with some sense of skills in english so that they really can compete in the workplace. I just hope we can take the best of what donald trump is offering here, this idea that we have to revisit the Economic Impact of free trade without taking the worst of it, which is the possibility that somehow theres a disruption in free trade. All right. Steve, thank you very much. John silvia of wells fargo, we appreciate youre being here. Thank you. We want to go to sue herera with a news alert in the oil patch. Sue. Yes, sarah, were talking about rig counts, specifically baker hughes reports up by 14 for this week compared to a week ago. Fourth weekly increase in a row. Of course thats a very different picture than we were seeing earlier in the year. Crude right now is trading down on the trading session by just under 2 . So an increase in the rig count this week by 14. Back to you, sarah. All right, sue, thank you very much. Keeping an eye on shares of lululemon under a little bit of pressure here today, but strongly outperforming other retailers so far this year including nike, under armour and other apparel makers. Now, for the First Time Since taking over in early 2014 the ceo is speaking out. I sat down with him in a cnbc exclusive at the Flagship Store in Lower Manhattan yesterday. We talked about the turnaround story and whether these industry beating same store sales that he has posted are sustainable. Listen. As long as we innovate, i think its very sustainable. If you look at the trend of tatake athleisure out, that trend is going to grow for a long, long time for men and women around the world. You dont see it as a fashion fad . Athleisure will part and people not in it for the right reasons will go away. And the trend of the lifestyle of being athletic and mindful will stay. What is chip wilson trying to do right now . Youd have to ask him. Well, we did ask him, he had a very contentious interview with jim cramer recently on our air where jim is defending you and defending your comps. And he was arguing that lululemon has lost its way and should be valued at double under armour. I would actually that lululemon has found new ways. You know. And chip hasnt been involved with the company in any way, shape or form for over two years now. And as the founder and shareholder certainly entitled to his own opinions, but we strongly disagree. Weve put out a plan of doubling revenues by 2020 and more than doubling profitability. Weve reignited innovation. Weve got an international strategy. Were building a Digital Culture and were very much on track to deliver on those targets. What about the troubled times that you walked into . How did you win back trust from the pants didnt work for some womens bodies comments . You know what, the first focus was focusing on a guest and really doing what was right for the guest. So we had some tough patches and every brand thats growing quickly has them. And my first task was to really focus on the guest and make sure that the guest knew that they could trust us, they could be loyal. But always said speculation that lulus going to get bought out . Going to be harder. The higher your stock price will go because youll have more value. Yes. What do you say to someone who looks at 30 times Earnings Company fully valued growth priced in . When you look at the runway that weve got ahead of us, when you compound the innovation, categories, mens business, building the Digital Culture and on a global scale, weve got tremendous. If hes right and the athleisure bubble does burst, what retailers will be hurting the most . Joining us is ceo of jan rogers nifen worldwide. Good to see you. Good to see you. You have not been a fan of lululemon stock. I still am not even though its up 40 . So do you agree though that the athleisure bubble will pop and there will be winners and losers . That is the one thing i completely agree with the ceo of lululemon on. We are going to see a reduction in orders. Were going to see rolling over of athleisure. I think its already started. I think we will see this fall weakness in growth and after that well see actual reductions in demand. Because i think the fad part of athleisure is going away. Now, that doesnt mean the athletic parts going away, right . Were not going to see a problem for nike or under armour because number one theyre guy businesses, and number two theyre very strong technical companies. But we are going to see problems if youre athletic, if youre lulu in my opinion why lulu . Because that was the point even if it does pop, the lifestyle stays and he is firmly entrenched in that business. Who wears athleisure clothes to starbucks . The lululemon customer. Thats who wears athleisure clothes to starbucks. Thats going to go away. That piece of the business is not going to be there. They are going to see them as well. Yes, theyre a great Technical Company when it comes to Building Product for yoga. Theyre not going to be a big mens business. They are not well, they are growing the mens business. They think it will be a billion dollar business. They are not going to supplant nike, they are not going to supplant under armour. Its a lot easier for nike to take womens business from lulu or under armour to take womens business from lulu than lulu to. Ive bought some lulu gear. I own some lulu gear. Its fantastic. I take your point. They havent really broken through with men. But i sure see a lot of women around my town sporting lulu and athletic gear all the time whether theyre at the grocery store. Thats my point. Its a trend. Its a trend and its going to flame out. They think its clothes as opposed to athletic gear and theyre wearing it all the time. That piece of the business is going to fall away. How many yoga outfits do you need . Going to dress up again, wear leggings. Going to replace is going to be denim, flared leggings, bohemian tops, all thats coming for fall. All the buyers are buying it and buying less of athleisure. Youre going to see that in the stores well, you could go right now for back to school and start to see that showing up. I am going to get a bohemian top. Yeah, and not wear it here. I think you would get in trouble. Youre not going to be wearing athleisure either. Guys arent wearing athleisure. They wear it all the time. Its not a lifestyle. We were told that larry page wears lululemon by the ceo of lululemon every day to work. I dont doubt. Abc pants. You can go on our website and find out what it stands for. Thats a very small data set youve got right there. Thank you. Always good to see you. All right, this was one of the scenes outside the Republican National convention. Our own eamon javers getting jostled in the crowd there. You think this was bad, why protests at the dnc could be much bigger. Were going to speak with the person who is organizing one of the largest protests at the dnc. He explains why hes doing it next. Welcome back everyone. Im sue herera with more developments on the shooting taking place or that took place at a Shopping Mall in munich, germany. Nbc news citing German Television is reporting one person is dead, several are injured. Thats according to German Television. This is a Shopping Mall that was built for the 1972 summer olympics. This is moments ago, as you can see its now 7 20 p. M. Eastern time munich time. This Shopping Mall has about 135 stores in it. Those include restaurants and cafes. Apparently someone was in there, they opened up fire. Theres a wide range as to the number of potential casualties ranging from one to 15. Nbc news is citing German Television and is only comfortable going with the one death right now. But reporting several injuries. This is the olympianeinkaufszentrum Shopping Mall, largest Shopping Mall in the city of munich. We have multiple injuries. The police told nbc news earlier that the operation was over, but the exteriors that we have seen from video that was fed in from the scene shows police still responding to that situation. So we are considering it a still developing story at this Shopping Mall. Nbc news quoting German Television as saying one person is dead, several injured in that particular incident. We will keep you posted. Guys, im going to send it back to you. Obviously all of europe has been on high alert for a long time. As we mentioned earlier france just extended their state of emergency after the bastille attack, and germany has never gone off of the high alert status. They also had that train attack just a short while ago. So obviously tensions are very high, which is probably why we saw such a heavy Police Presence responding to this particular incident. It is a very large Shopping Mall, the largest in southeastern germany. Sue, is there any reporting that were comfortable going with with respect to the shooter or shooters . Whether theres any idea there were multiple shooters and whether the shooter or shooters have been subdued or apprehended . We do not have any information on that at this point. Reuters citing someone that they talked to on the phone that was inside the Shopping Mall saying they heard multiple shots. Now, what that means i dont know at this point. But suffice it to say that there obviously was at least one shooter. We do not know whether there were multiple shooters. No one has claimed responsibility for this particular attack. The police are saying that its over. But it looks to us like its still a developing story. And once again nbc is working to confirm whether or not we have more than that one fatality reported by German Television at this point,ty. And importantly, sue, we dont know, right, whether this is a terrorist attack . No, we dont. No one has claimed responsibility for it. We should note that the train attack that happened earlier, the person who committed that attack apparently was radicalized. So there was a connection to radical islam at that point, but no news on this particular incident at all. No one has claimed responsibility. We have no news on that. All right. Sue, thank you very much. Sue herera reporting. And shell keep us in touch with whats going on in munich. Were going to take a quick break. Well be right back. Its a question we get from some of ourarge banking clientsts the face of their business was telrs. Then atms. Today is their mobile app running on the ibm cloud. Across everyransaction, e hybrid cloud hps the da me quickly and securely. Our clients are ilding out features and pushing updates faster, on five continents. With the ibm cloud, and can move hespd of a srtu. On five continents. With the ibm cloud, so i can take my tradingplatfor. Tradg de you know tt thinrsm seamlely syncs across all your devices. Sync your platfo on andevice with thinkorsm. Only at td ameritrade. Mauys a lile lamb. One of milons of orders this companys servers. Cessible by thounds of spliersnd employees thisobally. Ys servers. With Cyber Threats of spliersnd employees thisobon t rise,ervers. Marys data could nder ta. T help at, and security tt senses marys data could nder ta. Theicritical data is saf mitigatthan ever. Hats, giving them thagity to be open secure. Because nonews like at t. With donald trump officially accepting the republican partys nomination for president , the focus now turns to the Democratic Convention next week. Thousands of Bernie Sanders supporters are headed to the dnc for demonstrations. The biggest one is the march for bernie, which is expected to draw 30,000 people. Joining us is philly. Nyi director billy taylor, one of the organizers of the march for bernie. Welcome. I understand that you have really sort of cornered the market on demonstration permits in philadelphia. Why have you done that . Well, theres actually a number of reasons why that was done. I went through National Parks and recreation for permits and they informed me that the Sanders Campaign was in town. They applied for a permit. And they said whatever you have available, well take it. Well, a lightbulb went off. So i went around reserving all the permits that was possible. One, i wanted to be able to offer those to sanders if he wanted them. Two, i also what was his reaction . Well, we actually had communications with sanders. Real quick, i also wanted to stop any hillary supporters from coming to the city. I wanted the city to feel the bern. But as far as the reaction, sanders actually reached out, well, the campaign did reached out to us in reference to signing over some of our permits. But unfortunately it was for an area that we were not permitted. It was a baseball park in the back owned by five corporations. We recently reached out to the Sanders Campaign and did offer them all of our zones for the 24th on sunday. Fortunately we had a rather large donation for a production team, a world class stage, three jumbotrons. Basically he just has to show up and give the show. We put all the pieces in position for him to do that. Go ahead. I was just going to ask if you feel like your movement is going to get a little less popular now that Bernie Sanders has officially endorsed Hillary Clinton. Well, the endorsement, i mean, hang on, he didnt drop out. And hes an honorable man. Since the very beginning he said what he was going to do. Many folks have it in their head that what they would like him to do or what they envision him to do, but he has stayed true. I mean, its not even the end, but all the way through hes stayed true. How can you not honor a man such as that . If you fall in the middle of the race, do you not get up . Do you not continue . The little stumble that we had was only a stumble. Im sure he has his reasons. And with his calls to the delegates he stated his reasons on why he did that. You know, that was to actually have hillary adopt some of his issues into her platform. Now, the question that i have is why did the why did she do that with his endorsements . I dont believe hillarys going to be follow through what she says, it took bernies endorsement. So its not something she believes in. Honestly, i think hillarys lying. All right. But unfortunately what kind of turnout do you expect for your demonstrations . How many people would be a success for you . A million supporters. A million . Oh, absolutely. What makes you think youre going to get a million supporters . I didnt say, you know, political revolution. I mean, everybody wants were all unhappy with the establishment and the way it conducts itself. We put pieces into play. Again, just to see to it. One, we have world class stage. We have a number of things to offer. A great show. A free show. All week long. From sunday the 24th to thursday the 28th. Not only that weve somewhat secured tent camping with the city. Well, ive been personally battling with them for four months in reference to this. Weve somewhat secured this. They do have health and safety concerns so the city says theyre going to discourage it. Its a heat wave, middle of the summer, we understand their concerns. Pretty much they referred us to a park, we applied, they denied, i kind of had to put my foot down and we used the occupant movement to do so. Right now the city is cleaning up streets by finding homes for the homeless. This way it looks beautiful for the dnc. Well, this guy threatened to put masses back on to the streets, 50 to 100,000. That didnt sit too well. We know the laws. We know what we can legally do. Were running into a housing issue. All the hotels, campgrounds, dorms, theyre all filled up, even the locals are offering houses and backyards. So what we did was they actually referred us to fdr park. They said theyd put the resources in the park just for this. So theres medic tents, water dropoffs. So we have somewhat secured tent camping at the park. All right, billy. Youre basically talking political revolution. Go ahead. We have to leave it there. We have some breaking news were going to have to reestablish connection with. We thank you and we wish you all a successful convention and all be safe and stay out of the heat. Billy taylor with philly. Fyi. On the protests, by the way, they came in less than expectations in cleveland. Well see what we see next week in philly. Final gold trades are crossing for the day. Gold under pressure, whether its the stronger u. S. Dollar or potential profit taking, gold has fallen this week to a threeweek low and is off right now at the close about 8. 10. A little more than half a percent. As for the rest of the metals complex here, silver, copper, palladium and platinum. Palladium is shining with a modest gain. The rest of the Precious Metals ending in the red. When we come back, forget e. Coli. Could peak burrito be the latest hurdle for chipotle . Well have that straight ahead. [ beep ] but youll bad toee it re. Fidelity where smarter veors wi always be. Ifnly thsigns were obvious wn you tre. Fidelitys activtrader pro can help you find smarteentry ex pois wont replace the full value of your totaled new car. The guy says you picked the wrong Insurance Plan. No, i picked the wrong insurance company. With Liberty Mutual new car replacement™, you wont have to worry about replacing your car because youll get the full value back including depreciation. And if you have more than one Liberty Mutual policy, you qualify for a multipolicy discount, saving you money on your car and home coverage. Call for a free quote today. Liberty stands with you™. Liberty mutual insurance. Im sue herera. Heres whats happening at this hour. And we begin with the still developing story, an ongoing story in germany. Police in germany say there has been a shooting at a Shopping Center in munich, germany. There are varying reports that there have been multiple deaths and injuries. But nbc news is citing German Television as reporting one death. But once again, there is a wide range on the number of people that may have been killed. There is a very large Police Presence at the mall. And the situation may or may not be over. Dow jones citing a witness says there may have been multiple shooters. Were still working to confirm that. The police are putting out some statements shortly. We will get them to you as soon as possible. Well have more as the situation develops, as you look at that live picture. It is now just about 7 35 p. M. Munich time. This is at a Shopping Mall, the largest one in the southeastern part of germany in munich. Meantime, authorities releasing footage of last weeks deadly shootings on two of michigans bailiff. 44yearold larry gordon was handcuffed when he wrestled a gun away from a deputy and then shot and killed the two bailiffs. Gordon was eventually shot and killed himself. Former ku klux klan leader david duke says he plans to run for the u. S. Senate in louisiana. A registered republican, he would be seeking an open seat vacated by republican david vitert. For a Third Straight day Southwest Airlines is canceling flights. More than 250 this morning. That is in addition to the 1,600 Flights Canceled wednesday and thursday. It all stems from the airlines massive computer outage on wednesday. That is the news update at this hour. I will send it back to you, sar rachlt once again, were watching the situation in germany as we have multiple reports coming in that were trying to verify about the number of people that may have been killed in this shooting rampage. We will come to you as soon as we have that information. Sue, thank you for now. Chipotle meantime making a big comeback today, up 5 after falling more than 2 last night on earnings. That showed Second Quarter comp sales fell 23. 6 versus the estimated 20. 6 . Even after a boost in july from the latest chip topia Loyalty Program. So will chipotle ever be able to gain the trust back of their customers . Lets bring in Jeffrey Bernstein, senior restaurant analyst at barclays and tim love, restaurateur and cnbc contributor. Jeffrey, based on what we heard out of management and saw in the Earnings Report yesterday, do you have an answer to that question . Thats a very difficult question to answer. I think management made it very clear that the recoverys going slower than they expected. Its challenging and frustrating and visibility somewhat limited. So were pulling for them. But at the same time it looks like its going to take a lot longer than people thought if it ever does get back to full strength. And, tim, as a restaurateur who knows this Business Inside out, the idea of the Loyalty Program, chiptopia, dont seem to be a success. They attracted 3. 6 million customers to it. Is that the right step . Is that going to be the key . Well, i think the Loyalty Program at least attracts visibility more than it does about worrying about getting customers to return. The idea is to get their name, the face out in front of people and reminding them that chipotles just fine to come eat. Thats really their whole message. Think about kind of like when the cowboys are good at football, good chipotle does well, they root for food service. They have a long road to go. Tim, would you eat there . Absolutely id eat there. I have no qualms about eating at chipotle. I think its great. But thats the fundamental problem. There are a lot of people who just say i dont want to go there. Im still worried about it. And overcoming that kind of brand damage is a really hard thing to do. I agree. I mean, we all know that doing great things gets you publicity and doing bad thing gets you all the publicity. So true. In chipotles case very media driven in the fact their name is just not great right now. But they got to continue to keep pushing forward and give people good reasons to return to the restaurant. Just looking at the stock price, jeffrey, here up 5 . How much of the bad news is already priced in . And would you tell investors that its worth waiting it out . Yeah rk we are surprised by the size of the move today. I think investors are just buying into the idea that in the shortterm its all about any sign of sales improvement. And nay made it very clear that in july they did see an improvement in trend with the chiptopia Loyalty Program. We are not currently recommending the shares. Valuation i think is fully loaded. But again, in the very short term the stock will be all about the nearterm sequential contract. Do you have any thought, jeffrey . Its now at 440 a share or thereabouts, where this stock may trade, the range it may trade in or where it may be a year from now . Yeah, we struggle to imagine its going to be much higher than this. I mean, our price target is closer to 400. Really have to put some aggressive earnings estimates and a pretty lofty valuation on that to get anything close to 500 in our view. I mean, tim, its not like they havent been doing things behind the scenes to try to restore customer trust. Just from a Crisis Management standpoint. I wonder if you think theyre doing enough . They hired a consultant on food safety. They closed all the restaurants for a day and reopened them with all sorts of new processes. They seem like the right moves. Do they need to be doing more . I think what theyre doing, you know, food safety wise actually a little bit overzealous. Theyre pushing it hard as they can. I think what they need is just customer confidence, as we spoke about earlier. And to get customer confidence, other customers have to have that confidence. Its more of a rally around their own customers have got to get people to go to chipotle. Their friends have to say lets go to chipotle, not chipotle to tell people to do it. And if that happens, youll see the stock move very quickly. Theyve got so many outlets, so many places, so many opportunities for the sales to rise, but i can see chipotle moving very quickly. Thats just my opinion. Jeffrey, i wonder, as i recall they have not totally identified what the cause of these e. Coli outbreaks were. If they were able to do that and say weve definitively got it under control, would that help the stock . Sure. I think that would be a net positive. But at this point id say its pretty hard for them to be able to make that claim. Late. Yeah. Its late. All right. Gentlemen, thank you for coming onto discuss it with the nearly 5 move up, Jeffrey Bernstein of barclays and restaurateur tim love. A lot of love. Up next, a true high flier you might want to consider owning that name. And later, how the kardashian kids could help save a struggling retail brand. Plus up next, this yale grad quit her job search to satisfy her sweet tooth. I started out of my love of cocoa. Will the panel be in on her chocolate startup . I think its delicious, its rich. Or will they be out . Seems like a lot of money for a family. Stay tuned to find out. Rebecca barlow was running a Nanny Company when her husband suddenly passed away, leaving her to manage his ailing Water Recovery business. For more watch your business sunday mornings at 7 30 on msnbc. Its me, ay comeeehai ld from thereiveaxy in my idea would you help mmart each one of ouurneys kee us young he ie an iea well nevet old. Amg cer give youcardboard box othe. E rst stock x was created musiaythroug overyet many peas a bstill build portfolios with strategies thatjust. Buinvesting isn abachiing erage. Its about achieng goals requireshert and expties of highnvti inves. Ay e benchmarks. . Its timth show you the action in the u. S. Treasury market what bonds are doing with stocks showing modest gains. Show you what bonds are doing. Sort of a mixed picture, but not a whole lot of action. The yield on the 10year treasury note stands out. Thats 1. 54, were off the highs of the week where we saw just above 160. But we are well off the record lows we recently saw in the 130s. Theres less demand this week for the safe haven u. S. Treasury debt. We are seeing yields tick lower on the 2year and 5year, but we did see a bigger move higher for them. Little bit of a reversal here along with stocks, tyler. Sarah, thank you very much. Time for the power pitch where entrepreneurs have just 60 seconds to convince a panel of experts that their business has what it takes to be the next big thing. Hi. Im diana lovett and im founder of seaside cocoa. We make delicious, all natural cocoa based products. Last year we launched superthins, a runaway hit. Superthins are snackable brownie thins with super food topping. At around 100 calories a serving, you get the taste without any of the guilt. We also make Award Winning baking and hot cocoa mixes. I started for my love of cocoa and my passion for sustainable development. We source our cocoa from a cooperative in the dominican republic. We reinvest in the community where we source from. In under four years weve grown the business from 30 Retail Locations to over 2,000 Retail Locations. Our products are sold at whole foods, target, wagman, stop and shop and many of your other favorite retailers. We use real ingredients sourced with care and made with love. Welcome to todays power pitch. Im melissa lee. You just saw dianas pitch. Now lets meet the panel. Onset with us venture capitalist nir liberboim. Uprise ventures, several natural Food Investments in his portfolio. Also with us nikhil kalghatgi. And from seattle nat burgess where he oversees tech m a and also Angel Investor advise of several food startups in the cracker and coffee markets. Diana now in the hot seat, kick it off. I thought your pitch was strong from delivery to covering Major Business points. I would like to hear about financial performance. Still give your pitch a. Where does it stand out in the crowded market . On the baking mixes we offer real ingredients, responsibly sourced and Award Winning taste. When you walk down the supermarket aisle, if you look at this side of our box, you can trace the journey of your cocoa from bean to box. We offer treats that taste good and do good. I thought it was a sweet bite sized pitch. Ill give it an aminus. I know youre doing a lot of world positive things, but what are you doing that no one else in the world can do . For us we believe the best way to drive supply is through transparency. Typically Consumer Products companies dont always talk about where the ingredients come from and certainly dont talk about how its made. So we offer the best Quality Ingredients which makes it taste so yummy and then also the responsible mission. Nat. Diana, your pitch covered distribution, it covered differentiation and your product is delicious. Thats a lot of ds, but im actually giving your pitch an a. Diana, youre trying to make a transition thats killed a lot of niche Food Companies going from niche market to volume. Are you prepared to face the surges in manufacturing and also the demands of the channel as you get bigger . Its one of the reasons i set up my business to be positioned to scale. Weve done everything, you know, from finding backup suppliers for all of our ingredients to partnering with really large scale manufacturers to ensure that we can and we are scaling. How much does this thing cost compared to some of those other brands that are focusing on private label right now . Superthins are 4. 99 at retail. Cocoas are 5. 99 and baking mixes range typically around 8. 99 but in some places 6. 99. So we were talking about how delicious this is. Its food. Its here. We have to try it. You actually brought samples. I did. Im excited for you to try them. This is the brownie mix. What do you think . I think its delicious. Its rich. And i actually believe you can taste kind of high end ingredients in them. Thank you. Little bit of salt. Perfect ratio of brownie to chocolate chip. Nat. I would feel satisfied have this after a meal. We certainly dont pretend that our brownies are healthy. Theyre a treat. I eat them in my household along with our kale smoothies. I think its really about balance. And i think were seeing a lot more consumer interest in real ingredients. Nat. Diana, as you go into mass market outlets like kroger, do you see your price points coming down with the increased scale . We certainly have. And, you know, were excited to be able to do that. You always have the pressure. I love that my cfo and salesperson kind of duking it out margin versus, you know, top line sales. So, yes, we do see our price points coming down on any incremental savings that were able to gather from scale. Nikhil . Why are you doing this as a business as opposed to doing for a hobby or fun. So im a graduate of yale and cambridge. I lived in africa, i worked for doctors without borders. Thats my passion. I love that kind of work. And i kept trying to find a way to address the social needs that i was seeing through a business. Okay. So we heard what diana had to say. Now we want to know if the panel is in or out. I really like the story here. Theres a strong founder with a mission. Great tasting product with strong retail distribution. I think the space is crowded, but i do think cissi will be able to stand out, so i am in. Once i tried it, it blew me away and ill be a customer. So im in. Two ins. Nan, what do you say . I think youre well above the price point that could be competitive in the market and that concern is enough to make me out on this one. Two ins, one out. Diana, whats your reaction . I feel very supported and always value honesty back as well. Thank you. Our thanks to diana lovett. That is todays power pitch. I think im in. I think you just want a brownie. Moderation in all things except brownies. You heard what the panel had to say. Now its time to find out if you are in or out. Follow the conversation on twitter using powerpitch. For more head to powerlunch. Cnbc. Com. Jeff bezos just beat warren buffett. Robert frank has the story behind that. Sarah, you could call him the rocket man of wealth, bezos adding 20 billion with a b to his wealth this year to become number three. Want to tell you what it takes for him to become number one. Thats coming right up. My name is fred and i carve heads out of cheese. Its not easy. I was once working on a bust of Shaquille Oneill in swiss. I havent worked in swiss since. Everyone called me crazy. Things really took off when i got my domain name headsofcheese. Com from godaddy and now theyre selling like hot cakes. Made of cheese. Got a crazy idea you think you can turn into a success . We know you can and weve got a domain for you. Go you. Godaddy. Youve wished upon it all year, and now its finally here. The mercedesbenz summer event is back, with incredible offers on the mercedesbenz youve always longed for. But hurry, these shooting stars fly by fast. Lease the cla250 for 299 a month at your local mercedesbenz dealer. Mercedesbenz. The best or nothing. Great time for a shiny floor wax, no . Not if you just put the finishing touches on your latest masterpiece. Timings important. Comcast business knows that. Thats why you can schedule an installation at a time that works for you. Even late at night, or on the weekend, if thats what you need. Because you have enough to worry about. I did not see that coming. Dont deal with disruptions. Get Better Internet installed on your schedule. Comcast business. Built for business. Amazon Ceo Jeff Bezos now richer than warren buffett. Robert frank has the numbers. A lot of numbers. A lot of zeros. Look at high beta today, jeff bezos now the third richest man on the planet. His wealth followed the roller coaster of amazon stock over the past year. He started out the year worth around 60 billion. Amazon stock fell so his net worth fell to around 43. Now its 65. 1, so hes added 22 billion to his wealth just over the past five months. Thats just amazing. Meanwhile, buffett, well, he sees down though we shouldnt feel sorry for him because he gave that money to charity. He gave 2 billion to the gates foundation. So hes down to a mere 65 billion. So buffett at 65, bezos at 65. 1, bezos now above him. What would it take for bezos to be number one . Well, gates is still number one in the world with 78 to 89 depending on who you look at for measurements. Basically bezos would need another 20 billion or so to reach number one. But at this rate, thats feasible. He and zuckerberg have just been the two wealth rockets of the year. Well, their stocks are amazon up 25 in six months. Its a reflection of the sort of new economy, old economy, right . I wonder if hes on prime. Do you think he can afford it . The 10. 99 a month. He would put all of india on prime. Interesting that two out of the three richest men in the world, people in the world, are retailers. Thats right. And people forget in spain, ortega, thats the guy with fast fashion who he is number two and also closing in on gates. So weve got a real horse race, which is fun because for years it was just gates, buffett, gates, buffett. Thats all. Great for reporters. Next we have to find out how much each give away for philanthropy, the race for that. Right. Bezos hasnt, you know, at the level of gates and buffett yet, but you know he will. Hes a lot younger. Yeah. Robert, thank you. Thank you guys. Well, one of these is not like the other. Were talking about airlines. And look at the green on the left. Hawaiian airlines outperforming all of the Major Airlines so far this year. So what is the company doing right . Well pose that question to Hawaiian Airlines ceo straight ahead on power lunch. Were d. Where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters . The akes are so high, your finance your future. How do you solve this . You dont. You partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. Morgan stanley. [so i use quickbooks and run mye entire business from the cloud. I keep an eye on sales and expenses from anywhere. Even down here in the dark i can still see were having a great month. And celebrate cordingly. I run on quickbooks. Thats how i own it. Narrator kubo est place come on, this way. E. Narrator . Is in the forest. Kubo wow. Narrator so grab your loved ones monkey dont even. Narrator and explore a world of possibilities. Kubo its beautiful. Narrator visit discovertheforest. Org to find the closest forest or park to you. Theres a lot of places you never want to see 7. 95. [ beep ] but youll be glad to see it here. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. If only the signs were as obvious when you trade. Fidelitys active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. Fidelity where smarter investors will always be. Welcome back everybody to power lunch. Im Tyler Mathisen. We begin this second hour of power with breaking news on the shooting in munich, germany. Sue herera has the latest details. Ty, we begin with nbc news confirming from a spokesperson that several people are dead and injured at that Shopping Center mall shooting which occurred in munich. It is a very large Shopping Mall, part of it was built for the 1972 summer olympics. It started about an hour or so ago. This is video that was taken by an onlooker. It shows people running away from the mall. There are very conflicting reports about the number of people who may be dead and may be injured. It depends on which Police Spokesperson is being quoted by the news wire. So nbc news contacted the police themselves. They are comfortable going with, and we are therefore comfortable going with several dead and wounded in the german Shopping Mall incident. It is also unclear whether it is a single shooter or multiple shooters. The police do say they do not have anyone apprehended at this point. So the earlier comment to nbc news that the situation is over seems to be erroneous. Just moments ago you can see this video. Theres a heavy Police Presence there. The Police Continue to respond, which would indicate to us that the incident is not over especially if they are still looking for the perpetrator or perpetrators. But we can say that nbc news has been able to confirm several people are dead, several more wounded in the german Shopping Mall. It is a twostory large Shopping Mall about 135 stores. Its mixed use. There are reports that the shooting started in a fast food restaurant. Weve put calls out to those restaurants. We have not heard back from them. We dont know thats the case, but it is mixed use so you have cafes, fast food restaurants, department stores, retail stores. It is the largest Shopping Mall, we are told, in southeastern germany. It is located in the city of munich. And as you can see there is still that large Police Presence there. So several people have been killed. Residents have been told to avoid the public areas. Police spokesman quoted by various News Agencies which includes dow jones, reuters and Associated Press are quoted the police as saying to avoid the area and that they are trying to still evacuate the mall. So thats what we know right now, ty. Ill keep you posted. Sue, im reading probably the same nbc news flash that you have quoting a spokesperson saying, quote, it is unclear whether the suspects, plural, are still in the mall or in the area of the mall. Right. Exactly. So that confirms what you just said which suggests that this is by no means a resolved situation. And certainly also suggests that more than one shooter was involved here. Thats exactly what it does suggest. I think one of the issues is you have multiple Police Spokespersons using not only social media but talking to traditional media. And what were finding is sometimes the tweets and the social media posts conflict with what is being said to reuters, Associated Press and dow jones. The more traditional media. And thats why nbc news is trying to kind of cross confirm because the number of deaths being reported by various news medias goes from one all the way up to 15. So you can see theres a lot of confusion. But nbc news did contact the main Police Spokesperson in munich. And we are comfortable going with several dead and wounded in this particular incident. These situations as sue, you, and we all know, so painfully are very fluid. And the initial reports sometimes turn out to be radically updated as information appears. Absolutely. I will say this, it is the second incident this week. The train incident occurred earlier of course. So germany is on heightened alert. It is a very tense situation there. All right. Well be back to you in just a few moments. Sue, im sure. Joining us now on the cnbc news line is nbc producer andy ekart. Its been a difficult sumner europe, difficult week in germany now with the shooting in the mall in munich. Whats the mood in germany . How tense or onalert are ordinary civilians . Not really the civilians are on alert. Its the Police Forces and all the authorities that have to deal with terrorism threats that are on alert. And they have been for quite a while. And they have been stressing this over and over again that germany is in focus of terror organizations and could be a target. We just saw it recently, last week, when a single man went on a train attacking people on the train with an axe and a knife injuring them severely. One of the victims is still in hospital fighting for his life. So obviously the situation is very, very tense. But let me add that i have talked to Police Officials and they did confirm to me that several people are dead and several people are injured. The incident happened outside a mcdonalds, which is adjacent to the big mall that you have been talking about. And the Police Believe that the shooters then moved from that scene either inside the mall or into the nearby area. Thats why the police have blocked off the entire area and is searching the area. But keeps repeating on twitter and on other forms of social media that the suspects have not been caught nor have they been identified. So they are also asking the people of the city of munich to stay inside, to stay away from Public Places and to find shelter somewhere, im told, this very dangerous situation has been resolved. Meanwhile, the Public Transportation system mainly the underground socalled uban system, has been shut down completely. And people will really feel this in this very busy city at this time of the year. Remember, its summertime. Theres a lot of tourism in this city. People, the weather has been nice, people are out on the street. So the city is buzzing at the moment. But faces a really, really dangerous situation as it appears right now. You spoke of the amount reports of the amount of people that might have been killed. It is actually right. Reported one person dead, others three, and up to 15. So we have to be very, very careful with those numbers at this point because we really dont know. And police doesnt know. Because the press office is getting tripling information. Andy, its sue herera here. Ive been following the story. And ive been basically quoting your reporting. I note youre the only one that i know that has been able to talk to the police at this point. Were you able to get a sense from them whether they think theyre looking for one person, two people, multiple people . Did you get any sense from them as to how many perpetrators they think there are . I asked that question, and they think its multiple people. But that probably means that its two, maybe three. Not much more, at least thats what it sounded like. So they were also not specific on the numbers because they just dont know. But they did say suspects and not suspect. So there is multiple people out there apparently. You mentioned the fact it started outside a mcdonlalds. I want to note our news desk has reached out to mcdonalds for comment on that. If you recall in the paris, france attacks at the stadium, also quoted attacks started at mcdonalds and that turned out to be erroneous. Were just double checking that. We have a call into mcdonalds and we hope they return our call very soon. Let me add andy go ahead. Let me add, and you might remember this, that back in on new years eve earlier this year there was a huge terror alert in the city of munich. That was caused by some information that came from intelligence sources to the authorities in munich saying that an attack could be imminent. And the whole city was or the center of the city was on lockdown at that time as well. It turned out to be nothing at the time, but obviously authorities were very much concerned already at that point in time. And we talked to Police Officials after that incident, and they told us that they have a special plan in place for the city in case a terror attack actually happens. And i think what youre seeing with the shutdown of the train system and the subway system is this is probably part of their plan to bring security to the city and to avoid that more casualties, for example, in the subway system could occur. Andy, just so you know, we are just picking up some new tweets from the police. And they say that basically there have been more reports of gunfire. The situation is unclear. Whats unclear about this tweet to me is whether they are referring to the earlier gunfire or whether this is new gunfire. Which may relate to the fact they have not caught the perpetrators. No, the police had received reports and they had been out on german media that at the socalled big prominent square in the heart of munich there were reports of shootings as well. But at the time when i talked to them about 15, 20 minutes ago, they could not confirm that there were shootings at that square. So all of that is also unconfirmed. As you can see the situation is extremely fluid and extremely unclear for both the police and the media. I was just wondering, andy, about the Bigger Picture here. We mentioned this is the Second Attack in germany in the last week. After what we saw in france and after what we saw in brussels, we hear about the immigrant communities in both of those places and how its been difficult to integrate and some of the Economic Conditions there. Im just wondering how much of a threat germany has to face when it comes to terrorism. And we should note that we dont have any confirmation yet that thats what this is. Well, we have seen isis and other terror organizations put out warnings as part of their propaganda. Generally to the west, but france has been named, belgium has been named and germany has been named. As a matter of fact, there were videos out where they name specific targets, they named the cologne airport as a target, officials and analysts are always very careful about this. They dont underestimate the threat but there are very careful about this because this is part of isis propaganda. This is the way they want to spread fear. And this is the way they put this on the internet. But it is quite clear germany has been way up there as a target. A lot of officials in the past year have always said its not a matter of if germany will be attacked, its a matter of when. Andy, im going to ask you to stick around. Sue will stay with us. Sarah of course as well as we bring in john harwood who has moved from cleveland to philadelphia, site of next weeks Democratic National convention. Of course, john, last night and throughout his campaign mr. Trump has talked very liberally, maybe thats a bad choice of words, about how to keep america safe from these kinds of attacks. These kinds of things feed into whether they are here or abroad, feed into his narrative. Theres no question about that. And i would expect that donald trump either on twitter or live before cameras later today will be making that connection himself and saying this munich attack is one of the the type of thing he was talking about in his remarks last night. And make the point that he would be more effective and tougher on terrorism than Hillary Clinton would. Of course this event today in munich has cast appall. Were expecting Hillary Clinton might reveal her choice for running mate, who we expect to be tim kaine, the former governor and dnc chair, now senator from virginia, some time this afternoon. But we dont know whether or not the riveting coverage of this horrific event in munich may cause them to hold back. You know, the Clinton Campaign had said they were going to wait and see what the reaction was to the last night of Trumps Convention before deciding whether to roll out their v. P. Now you have this layered on top of that. Dont know how much attention theyre going to get with that choice. Were just going to have to watch how it unfolds. Im told by sources familiar with the situation that the decision has not been made yet, that that is to say the decision on when to roll it out. And of course it was just a week ago that mr. Trumps choice for Vice President was delayed because of the bastille day attack in nice. Sue herera with more. And heres what we know at this hour. These are the latest tweets from the Munich Police. They are basically saying at this point that the suspects, and they use the word suspects, plural, are still on the run. Avoid public spaces. So they have not been apprehended, according to this tweet. They are also requesting that citizens do not take photos or videos of Police Action in order to avoid any helpful information for the suspects. Reuters, and we say this with caution, reuters is reporting according to a german rail operator that they are evacuating the main train station in munich. Nbc has not independently confirmed that. But once again, theyre saying that the suspects are still on the run. Right. Dont take photos or videos. And they may be evacuating the main train station in munich. And of course john harwood and andy, why dont i go to you. Sarah quite rightly pointed out that we do not know whether this is terrorist, terror inspired, it certainly has all of the hallmarks of that, but we dont know who the perpetrators are here. Andy. That is correct. As a matter of fact, some of the big newspapers in germany are calling this what we name an amuck run, which is any kind of shooting incident where somebody can go crazy. This could be an individual that had some psychological problems. This could be Gang Violence or whatever. We have to be very careful at this point in time to coin this as a terror incident because we just dont know. Right. What we do know is that there is a shooting, or that there was a shooting, and that several people have been killed and injured. And that itself is a dramatic situation. Lets bring in Michelle Carusocabrera who is just gotten back from cleveland through the traffic from the airport delays. And youre seeing what were seeing. Sure. I was going to talk to andy, hi, good to talk to you again. Set the stage of the mood of the people in germany right now. Because remember new years eve and like i said, we dont know who did this or why it happened, but the mood of the people in germany right now especially in the wake of what happened new years eve where there were concerns about immigrants and recent immigrants and what happens with large scale assaults on women, it has set the tone in a different way there, i imagine. Yes, michelle, youre right. I mean, certainly the people are a bit more on edge. Especially because you and i know that germany is quite a safe country on a daytoday basis. We have a low crime rate. We dont have a lot of shooting incidents or almost zero to none on streets. Its a big thing if somebody pulls out a pistol somewhere because german gun laws are very, very strict. So when things like this happen, especially in a big city like munich, people obviously will get worry ied. And the mood is going to change even more. If you look two incidents in one week which are farly dramatic. Andy eckhart, stay connected, Michelle Carusocabrera, good to have you here. Welcome. Power lunch will be right back. Real is touching a ray. Amazing is moving likene. Real is making new friends. Amazing is getting this clos real is an animarescue. Amazing is over twentyseven thousand of them. Theres only one place where real and amazing live. Book seaworld vacation package and eat free. Freshly made in the tokyojapanese tradition, every bowl blurring the line betweefood. And art. When you cook with incredible ingredients. You make incredible meals. Fresh ingredients. Stepbysteprecipes. Delivered to your door, for less than 9 a meal. Get 30 off your first delivery blueapron. Com cook. Welcome back. We are monitoring a developing story out of munich where multiple people have been shot. Lets bring in pimcos policy and politics editor along with cnbc contributor Jared Bernstein and jimmy. Jimmy, start with you, this event in munich comes in the wake of the Republican National convention where Newt Gingrich cited terrorist attack after terrorist attack that occurred around the world, and last night donald trump asserting that United States isnt taking terrorism serious enough. We dont exactly know whats happening in munich right now, but this is certainly going to play on all those fears they were trying to play on, werent they . Yeah, listen, this is an election i think to a surprising degree is going to end up being about National Security. Saw in Donald Trumps speech last night it was that someone is coming to get us. Whether it is, you know, undocumented immigrants, whether its isis, whether it is isis, you know, blending in with immigrants from syria, that america is under siege. This plays completely into that narrati narrative. Obviously its worked for donald trump. Even though its not here. Right. Right. Its not here, but its coming. Thats his point. Is that either theyre here listen, i think it was joni ernst in her speech said isis in all 50 states. That is sort of the image theyre trying to create is that america, if the terrorists arent on our doorstep, they may be in our backyard. Jared, is Hillary Clinton going to have to answer to everything that was said, especially in the wake of this occurring between the two conventions . Not really. Again, to underscore, we dont know whats going on in germany. We doept know who the perpetrator is. I think thats important. But in terms of narrative i think it would be a mistake for her to mix it up and get into a fighting match with donald trump on the facts as he presents them. I think her job is going to have to be to shape the narrative differently to tell the different story. I dont think that were nearly as screwed up a country as you heard about in Donald Trumps speech last night. We explored a little of that, jared, at the top of the 1 00 hour. Libby, let me ask you whether you agree with what jimmy said, and that is that National Security will be the dominant theme of the campaign. I wonder what happened to the economy. It did not have a front and center role as far as i could tell. Michelle, you were there. Uhhuh. It got a mention, but it was a lot more about law and order and National Security. Will the economy resurface as a critical key Central Campaign issue . Yeah. I mean, we think so. National security is obviously going to also be one of the top issues discussed. And, you know, this could actually be an area where Hillary Clinton could shine. I mean, remember she was a secretary of state for four years. Shes had extensive Foreign Policy experience. So she could, if as one of your ore commentators had said, if shes able to sort of shape and frame the narrative, diagnose the problem, but in addition you put forward a more sort of constructive idea of what she would do to tackle these Foreign Policy issues, the economy though, i mean, youre very right. It was sort of briefly mentioned during the convention, certainly as fixed income managers we were trying to, you know, we wanted more details about Donald Trumps economic agenda specifically. We really didnt get many more details. I mean, he spoke in jegeneralits and platitudes and didnt offer any specific policy details. I think we should see for Hillary Clinton next week i think she is going to be much more policy focused, sort of much more substantive in terms of her policy details on the economy and other issues as well. Jimmy, did we get any policy issues on this law and order front from trump . That is the mantra for sure, but did you get an action plan when it comes to isis, mideast and Foreign Policy . You know, he was very good at diagnosing the problems, right . Yesterday he went through a sort of litany of issues that our world and our nation is facing. He really didnt though pivot to sort of the solutions. And i think, again, from a markets perspective, thats what markets are focused on. What are the actual policy responses, what is going to be his agenda. He didnt really give us many specifics. Now, i think the big question though is does it matter to voters at this point. Libby, i want to pick up, and maybe jared you can jump in here jimmy, whoever, you said that you would think that Foreign Policy, National Security would be a clinton would play into her wheelhouse. Because she was secretary of state. But her record in this area as mr. Trump painfully painstakingly, i meant to say, went through it last night, is not unblemished. There are lots of criticisms of her stew ardship of american policy. Thats true. And i think one reason youre going to see a very strong pivot to the economy, because if you actually ask people what they care about most, that tends to top the list. Now, this tends to be second, by the way. Im not at all dismissing the kind of insecurities that weve been discussing. But it is very much in her interests based both on the economy shes inheriting from president obama and particularly on the very distorted view of the economy that i think you got from the republicans to heres the thing, jared, from one person who lives in an east coast bubble to another. Sorry, whatd you say . From one person who lives in an east coast bubble to another, why dont the American People feel like that . Why are they so angry . Its a great question. Because there is no the American People when it comes to the economy. Its exactly as you suggested. There are people in rust belt states who have very much failed to benefit from globalization. So Anyone Running on isnt globalization great and heres the next trade deal is certainly going to be hurt by that. And thats not what Hillary Clinton is running on though its closer to what some other earlier mainstream democrats have run on. So i do think youre right. You have to pay attention. And ive stressed often the problem of income inequality and the dispersion of wages and income wealth. I guarantee youll hear a lot about that in philly. Thats the trump theme, security, i want to keep you secure from isis, im going to keep your job secure, i wont let businesses offshore them. Broadly feeds into what trump is trying to make this election. Lets go to sue herera and get some more details. Were getting more comments from Munich Police. Now, keep in mind there are several members of the Munich Police force that are commenting at this hour. This particular individual who is not named says that they suspect a terrorist attack in this munich incident. That has not been echoed by any other of the Police Spokespersons, but of course it is front of mind for everyone because this would be the Second Attack in germany this week. Now, in terms of the number of dead, that number is rising. According to some news media. But nbc news is still going with several dead and several injured. We will continue to follow the situation as we continue on power lunch. Were going to take a quick break. Welcome back to power lunch everyone. Im sue herera with a developing story and more breaking news on the Shopping Center shooting in munich, germany. It occurred several hours ago. We now have nbc news confirming as you take a look at this google layout of the Shopping Center built in 1972 for the summer olympics, we know that several people are reported dead according to police to nbc news. Several people wounded. The range though on the number of people that could be considered casualties depending on what news source you use goes anywhere from one to 15. A munich Police Spokesperson unnamed quoted by reuters is saying that they now suspect this is a terrorist incident. Nbc news has not independently confirmed that. We obviously have an ongoing situation there as you look at these live pictures out of munich where its about 8 30 in the evening on a summer evening. Its the height of the season in europe, of course. This is the Second Attack this week in germany. We do not know if this is terror related, but apparently the Munich Police are starting to lean in that particular direction. So we have multiple injuries, at least several deaths and an ongoing situation. The police are tweeting out, please its the equivalent of our shelter in place, find some place safe to be, dont be out on the streets. Theyve been trying to evacuate this mall. They are also tweeting dont take video and post it because they dont want to help the suspects. That the plural use of the word suspects indicates to us anyway that there are multiple shooters. They have not been apprehended. They are still on the loose. The Transit System in munich has been shut down in this particular area of the city. Because theres an underground as well as aboveground transit. That has all been shut down. But it is a continuing situation with several dead and wounded according to nbc news. Michelle, i think im sending it back to you. Yep. Thank you, sue. Joining us now on the phone is clint van sant, former fbi profiler. Clint, good to have you here. Based on everything public so far your initial thoughts. Yeah, michelle, well, as youve been reporting this is followed of course by the incident on monday when on a bavarian train five individuals were stabbed. That particular case isis cla claimed responsibility for it. And now we see this situation in munich. And of course the challenge is in the early reporting, ive seen similar reports coming in from local media suggesting anywhere from one to six to upwards of 15 deceased. Were also hearing reports of obviously at least one and upwards of three gunmen. And the more people are involved, the more gunmen involved, of course that would suggest the greater potential for some type of terrorist organization because of the planning, the Operational Support that it would take to do Something Like this. And as weve seen in the past, even though we get multiple reports of multiple gunmen, many times like weve seen in United States within the last couple of weeks when theres one or more gunmen out there, those shots are ricochetting, the sound is reverberating off the walls, off buildings. So we have to take these early reports and just wait and see what the authorities come back with. But given those shelter in place warning to all the local citizens shutting down the trains means theyre trying to isolate, theyre trying to find these gunmen, keep them in one area, eliminate their ability to escape. The authorities are doing everything they can, but right now 8 30 friday night in a very booming local area, tourist area, a lot of activity going on. The authorities have their hands full. Right. Trying to isolate this area. And hopefully identify the gunman or gunmen before they can strike again. Clint, this sort of attack at what we tend to call a soft target, a Shopping Mall, a hotel, Something Like that, what does this imply to you about what global businesses, local businesses, american businesses are going to have to do to, one, harden up those soft targets and make their customers feel safe . Well, these are really the challenges. Weve seen Shopping Malls attacked all over the world for various reason, terrorist related or Mental Health related. Weve also seen where trains have become targeted too. And we realize that every country in the world, especially the United States, we are a target rich environment for soft targets. And every time this happens, as you suggest, businesses have to take another look again and say can they harden a Shopping Mall, can they harden a tourist area without driving away the very business that pays the bills. This is a city, its the third most populous in the country of germany, about 1. 5 Million People, clint, with police saying that the shooters are still on the run. The suspects are still on the run. How difficult is it to get a city like this under lockdown . And what is the procedure . Oh, its almost impossible, as you say to lock it down. What is from a terrorist point of view is interesting is a terrible word to use when weve had deaths potentially, but what is interesting is that instead of staying there and fighting and slugging it out as weve seen so many suicide shooters have done in the past. Right now it appears that one or more shooters may have done just that, shot and run as opposed to shot and stayed and fight. That makes a big challenge for the authorities because, again, at 8 30, 8 40 at night they know this could be repeated multiple times. They cant clear the streets in this major shopping and tourist area. All they can do right now is put on the largest police, law enforcement, military presence that they can on the street. But we know that theyre also asking people not to be posting images of whats going on for fear that the shooter or shooters are using any type of public information. No, its an enormous task that they have ahead of them certainly at this point. Mr. Van zandt, thank you for joining us, former fbi profiler. Thank you. Were going to continue to monitor this breaking story and bring you any new developments. In the meantime, were going to get back to the markets and power lunch. Well be right back. Y look, its thoseuys. [music] jess aryou good to ive . Shawn im fine ss how many did you have . Shawn i should be fi jess yosho . Offir go on anstbud ut of tsee yabuddy. Good luck , urns outzed iving and drunk drin theyre the sa thing and it cos aun0,0. Soot wortht. Theyre the sa thing and it cos aun0,0. Gu,y nicole, happinhere . This is my nealert system for whenever anyg happens in theket. Kids a natural. But thinkorswim alrey lets y create custom aler alerts on anything aall . That are imptant to yo shhh. T only that, you can act on tportunity with just one tap right from t ale. W, guess we dont ne the kidnymore custom alertonhinkorswim. Right from t ale. Only a atd aritrade. Oil trades closing for the day. And the week. Shall we take a look. There you see it down a big 43 cents at 44. 32. A bit of a slide for oil in recent days and weeks, as you see there. One week down 3. 5 . Meantime, the Oil Field Services giant schlumberger, my Favorite Company word to pronounce, joining halliburton in calling the bottom in the oil slump. Has oil bottomed . And how do you play it . Joining us founder of again capital kildof again and pablo maldanov. First question to you, has oil bottomed at roughly 44 a barrel . I think in this current selloff, no. I think were going to trade down to the mid to upper 30s at the very least. By when . In the fall here, september, october timeframe. I think what youre seeing right now this big buildup in inventories globally is going to continue and worsen. And thats when well see it. Is the 2605 low from february safe . Probably. So do we spend most of the fall, winter and into the spring in the 30s or in the 40s . I think youll be right around 40. Its going to depend on what happens in the early part of the upcoming winter. If it stays warm, like it is right now and like it was last winter, you wont have early season demand for heating fuels. And thats going to make the diesel fuel glut were experiencing right now even worse. Pablo, is he right . What does that mean for the stocks to cover . Were definitely taking the over on what your other guest said. Were looking for oil in the 60s by the end of the year. Now, its not going to be a Straight Line from here to there of course. Theres going to be some nearterm choppiness, particularly getting into the shoulder season after the summer. But were looking we think oil has to be at least 60 to get the rate count and to get Capital Spending back to levels right, but that doesnt mean rig count up again. Up 20 off low actually. Talk to us about the buildup in supply, et cetera, that john thinks is going to keep the price lower. Well, supply certainly not growing. U. S. Oil supply and nonopec supply generally have been in free fall since the beginning of the year. U. S. Supply is down by more than 1 Million Barrels a day from last year. Global inventories by the way are actually starting to shrink. It is true though that there is a lot of refined product thats currently building up. So crude inventories coming down, product, you know, ticking up. We still think by the way in the second half of the year total inventories should be heading down. But, you know, maybe q3 will look a little different. But by the end of the year certainly heading down, and thats the recipe for oil to get back to levels that will enable meaningful increases in the rig count, not just what weve seen in the last couple of weeks. John, whats giving schlumberger and halliburton the confidence to call a bottom in the cycle here . And why wouldnt you buy it . Theyve certainly got a good window into the industry. Well, i think theres hopeful analysis there quite often. I think they want to sell a good story to their shareholders. I think its fair to say look at 2017 things could get better. Im not discounting that. I think its a ray of hope for the industry. We have record gasoline inventories in europe. We have a glut of diesel fuel in asia. Its not stopping. The opec increases from iran, iraq, saudi arabia, if the libyans come back on, all the declines you see in the u. S. Get more than made up. So, again, i just dont see this market balancing. I think theres been a rush to judgment on that. I love when we have a little disagreement. And we just did. Pavel, thank you very much for being here. John, as always, thank you very much. Do you make that joke every time . Im going to milk it as far as i can. It hasnt been the best of times for the Airline Stocks so far this year, but we found one soaring above the rest. And that would be hawaiian. Shares up 31 yeartodate. Coming up in a power lunch exclusive youll hear from the companys ceo on why hawaiian is flying high. See what kind of shirt he wears. Whent comes to medicare, everyone tks about at happens when youurn sixtyfive. But, rlly, itwhat you do bere that unts. See, medicardoesncover everything. Only about eighty peent of part b medical costs. The rest is on you. Coider aaarp Medicare Supplement Insurance Plan insured by unidhealthcare insunce mpany. Like a standarzed Medicare Supplement Insurance Plans, it could really sa you in outofpocket medical costs. So, call now and request this free decision gde. Discover how an aarp Medicare Supplement plan could go long™ for y. Do youanto choose your doctors . Avoid networks . What about referrals . All plans like thest you visit any door or hospital that accepts medicare pients, witho networks and virtually no referralseeded. So, call now, reest your free guid d explore the range of aarMedicare Supplement plans. Sixtyfive mayet all the attention, but now a good time to srthinking about how you want things to be. Go long™. Stocks back to their winning ways. Dow and s p near highs of the session. And in fact close to new records. The s p 500 has traded above its record close on an intraday basis. Check out some of the dow movers here. Microsoft and American Express are the biggest winners. Ge bringing up the rear after earnings this morning. Coming up, the best performing Airline Stock this year up more than 30 . The companys ceo lays out his growth plan and whether it can continue next. E shows prty much over. friend wish we could start it from the beginning. jon bon jovi with directv, yo. You se weve got the power to turn back time les start over, ts rewind and lets go back d not quit the gym and have ahance to say goodbye to grampy tim vo get the ue alcl bundl ohthats t power to turn back time. Ll 100irectv. Welcome back. American airlines, shares rising 3 today after reporting better than expected earnings in part because of lower fuel costs, however, take a look at the stock. Still down 15 so far this year. Sarah . Meantime, michelle, shares of hawaiian holdings, Parent Company for whHawaiian Airlines soaring. Also the best performing Airline Stock this year. The company reporting strong earnings after the bell yesterday. Here for an exclusive is the ceo of Hawaiian Airlines and holdings. Good to see you. We knew you would be wearing a hawaiian shirt. There we go. Tell us about 63 revenues growth and in an environment that has been somewhat painful for the rest of the airlines. Well, you know, speaking for us, our environments been pretty good. We have terrific, Strong Demand for the hawaii vacation in every geography that we operate in. The american of competitor capacity this year has been pretty muted. And were also getting a point where were sort of lapping some of the headwinds of last year from the appreciation of the u. S. Dollar against the foreign currencys that are important to us. Mix in fuel still lower than in the prior year, it is really a pretty good combination of factors thats worked well for us so far. Mark, this hour we have been following yet another tragic incident, this time in munich, germany. The latest in a string of attacks to hit europe. We felt it here. And this hurt it is airlines, this fear of travel and of terrorism. Are you insulated from some of those problems . Well, frankly, i dont think any of us are insulated from the probables that come with, you know, a fear of globalization, a fear of travel, a fear of people moving around the globe and mixing. So, i think airlines are affected. We absolutely try and do everything we can to embrace the different cultures that we serve and to be, you know, part of increasing understanding between people and so when there are news stories that tend to move people in the opposite direction, we would never claim that that was good or trivial. You know, i assume that the American Consumer is what the American Consumer is and theres been a lot of focus on asia. You fly inbound and out from honolulu and elsewhere to asia, japan, korea, china. Hows asia doing . Asias doing well for us at the moment. Today were just starting, in fact, a new flight from honolulu to japans tokyos second airport at narita and kicks off today. We have just been awarded tentatively by the u. S. D. O. T. Another flight into tokyo, as well. Japan is going well for us. China, the markets still growing. Its not growing quite as rapidly as it was but people are traveling in increasing numbers from china. And in australia and new zealand, theres a lot more competition this year than there was last year directly related to north america and getting people out of the house and on to airplanes. Mark, is hawaii benefiting as vacation destination with the rise and spread of zika across the caribbean and south america and mexico all traditional favorites of vacationers for during summertime . Its a little hard to discern. Certainly, and, you know, the only information is anecdotal information. As i mentioned at the outset, demand is strong for hawaiian vacation from all of our geographies and may be fears of zika elsewhere playing into that but its not discernible. The stock is up 7. 5 . Mark, thank you for joining us to talk about the results. The ceo of Hawaiian Airlines. Lets go back to sue herrera with more breaking news on the shooting in germany. Sue . We are quoting various german media who are talking to reuters or dow jones or Associated Press or German Television. And heres what we know. German media reporting that police citing what they call a, quote, acute Terror Threat. End quote. Which may be why local authorities have reportedly, nbcs not confirmed this, asked that all offduty doctors, nurses and Police Officers report for duty because the scope of this particular incident has triggered what they call an acute Terror Threat. Witnesses talking to german broadcasters and german media have said that they saw three people shooting and that they used long guns. Thats what we have so far and i was just handed a statement that president obama says our hearts go out to the people in germany after the shooting. He pledges the u. S. Support. He says the president says we dont yet know whats happened in munich. It is obviously as take a look at the live picture of munich, a still developing situation. We are following the story. Well be up at the top of closing bell with more but they have incited an acute Terror Threat at this hour in munich, germany. We are back in a moment. Announcer theyll test you. Try to break your will. But however loud the loudness gets. However many cheese puffs may fly. Youre the driver. The one in control. Stand firm. Just wait. [click] and move only when you hear the click that says theyre buckled in for the drive. Never give up till they buckle up. Tmobile covers your business in more places. So you can take your business just about anywhere. Plus, our extended range lte reaches twice as far and its 4x better in buldings. Get more done in more places. Switch your business to tmobile work today. A big week ahead. Lots to talk about. The fed decision on interest rates. Power will be all over it. That comes on wednesday. But before that, michelle, you head out this time to philadelphia and the Democratic Convention. Button up cleveland. Look ahead to philly. Donald trump with the big speech last night and wait to see the numbers come in. Had to close the gap of the number of republicans that supported him, 60 , 70 depending on what you need and what he needs to actually win come november. Hillary clinton has a very similar hurdle next week. Shes not very well supported within her party or the general public. Very high negatives. Almost meet Donald Trumps and shes got a very different style than he does. I wonder what your feeling was about the mishaps earlier in the week. There was ted cruz, melania trumps speech or was that wiped out last night with ivanka and donald trump with good reviews . They go by the wayside. Thats internal Party Politics and we know conventions normally work and this one didnt go that way. But it made for a lot of drama. All right. Good to have you back. Well see you here on monday before you live for philadelphia. Exactly. That does it for power lunch. Thank you. Closing bell starts right now. Welcome, and we have breaking news at this hour. Im kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. Im bill griffeth. We are following the last hour of trade where the dow is up 36, but first, we want to bring you up to speed on that shooting at the munich Shopping Mall. Sue herrera back at Global Headquarters has the details for us. Sue . What we know is several hours ago, apparently three gunmen opened up shooting, the reports are outside of an mcdonalds. This is a very large Shopping Center built in 1972. In conjunction with the summer olympics taking place in much