In 2015 on a separate payment that will not be paid. However, the vast majority of the more than 700 million that the island owes on monday by midnight on the 4th will be paid, including importantly the general Obligation Bonds that amount to about 330odd million dollars. Widely held by many mutual funds, Something Like 45 of mutual funds that invest in munis around the u. S. , melissa and brian, are exposed to some of that paper. And thats why were following the story. Kate, thanks so much. Well keep you posted on whats going on in puerto rico. This is power lunch. Im melissa lee along with brian sullivan. Oil is getting knocked around today, no surprise. In the last six months, crude is down almost 40 . What a tumble. Also, natural gas, did the nat gas trade just run out of energy . Its had a huge week but it is down again today. What is going on, melissa . And a year ago brian made some pretty brave and bold predictions about 2015. Today we will show you what he got right, what he got wrong, and why he should really Pay Attention to brian in 2016. No, no. As i write, put on your gloat coat because i blew it. I didnt make any predictions. Next year you will. Next year maybe. Next year you will be on the hook. Tyler is out. You just saw mandy on fast money so here we are and here is where we are in the news. Crude Oil Prices Plunging again, now back below 37 a barrel, and once again global crude prices, brent crude, have fallen back below the u. S. Traded price. It is hard to believe that just a year and a half ago oil was above 100 a barrel. We are down nearly 70 from those highs. Also on your radar, natural gas. Those prices have been on fire over the past week, but not today. Natural gas down about 6 at this hour, and they are also now down nearly 70 from their highs in 2014, and this should not only low iryoer your heating bit also give companies a break on their power bill. But here is your question heading into next year, will oil prices stabilize anytime soon . Joining us, tim evans, Energy Futures specialist. I guess, tim, coy si could say have stabilized in a way. They tumbled last year, started january in the 40s, were a little lower than where we started the year. Do you see any reversal higher for wti traded crude prices in 2016 or a continued move down . Well, i think theres vulnerability on the downside particularly for the first half of 2016. Were looking at a surplus that could be 1. 5 Million Barrels a day or so depending on how much Iranian Crude Oil comes back onto the market, and even under that scenario theres some additional Downside Risk if we see some fairly low probability events like a unity government taking hold in libya, a recovery in libyan production could add to the oversupply in the year ahead. I tell people all the time that the oil story literally may be the simplest story in the world, which is that theres too much of the stuff versus demand. Nobody weve talked to suggests demand is going to pick up anytime soon meaningfully. When you look out, do you see any meaningful, call it a Million Barrels a day, drop in production anytime in the next six months because if you dont, it is likely that that supply demand imbalance is going to continue. Well, thats right. Weve been talking for some time about a general theme of lower for longer, and that continues to be the dominant theme in the market. In the next six months, no, i dont see anything other than a geopolitical surprise that would quickly rebalance this market. And i think even beyond that horizon, what were really looking for is some kind of change in opec policy, some kind of change in saudi arabias aggressive competition for market share that would restrain output, rebalance the market, and help the market turn significantly higher. Failing that, were looking at a much longerterm process where its going to take a long time to draw down our surplus inventories. Inventory data for last week showed u. S. Commercial crude Oil Inventories 36 above the fiveyear average. Im sorry to break in, but the bottom line, it sounds like you think its going to be a long, drawn out bottoming process. The saudis showed no evidence of retreating from their policies. They made numerous comments they think the market should rebalance on their own and they should continue with their policy of unlimited output. Absolutely. Theyre doing a fine job of selling their policy, which is theyre going to beat the competition into submission through Lower Oil Prices, and we always want to take into account where the saudis want the price to be when we consider that outlook. So the bottom line here is a long, drawn out bottoming process for crude oil in the next, what, you said 12 to 18 months . Well, i mean, im focused more on the shorter term on these next six months that definitely look like theyre going to be weak. Depending on what the opec reaction is to these lower prices though, i do see some potential for them to, you know, look at the decline in their own reserves, look at the deficit that theyre running, and rethink whether this strategy is really working for them. So far theyre only getting a larger share of a weaker market, and their total revenues are down. Tim evans, citi futures. We appreciate that. The saudis have said recently they are not going to slow down their production. Tim evans, thank you. Well see new the new year. Appreciate it. Thanks, brooiian. Sevenyear notes up for auction. Rick santelli is tracking all the action at the cme. Hi, melissa lee. Its the last coupon auction of the year. 29 billion 7 year notes. The yield at auction, 2. 161. The highest yield in an auction since september of 2014 and it looked to me like around 2. 15 was trading in the one issue market. So higher yield at the dutch auction. They had to move it to get it to move, and definitely not a good sign, so it tailed a bit. But it gets a little worse from there. 2. 34 bid to cover. 2. 34 of investor money chasing every dollars worth of securities at the dutch auction. Thats the weakest since march of 15. Not that long ago. 47. 1 on indirects. Weakest since october of 14 and directs at 14. 1, the only bright spot. The best since january of 15, so almost a year. The grade, d plus, d as in dog plus. We had a rotten set of auctions. Maybe its the holiday week but something to Pay Attention to in next year as the lights went on and the supply is done. Melissa, sully, back to you. D pluses all this week. Rick, thank you. Not a good year for the hedge funds or individual investors or warren buffett. The oracle of omaha headed for his worst year since 2009. Shares of Berkshire Hathaway are down 11 in 2015 versus a slight gain for the s p 500. Whats behind the underperformance . Blame the commodities slump. Berkshires Railroad Business transport oil, coal, and Agricultural Products and its Manufacturing Business sells to the battered oil industry. A lot of the same bets a lot of other traders are making this year. Were going to go to seema mody for a market flash. Stocks are mostly lower but check out shares of tesla. Shares are up over 1 . A bullish analyst note from Global EquityResearch Says tesla will deliver more than 18,000 cars in the fourth quarter. That means tesla is on track to meet the higher end of its quarterly guidance and latest annual forecast. Shares up 8 this year. Back to you. All right. Despite low oil prices, its been a bumpy ride for the airlines this year. Some up double digits, others dropping double digits. The xal is down 15 in 2015. The sector facing a major challenge in 2016 that may impact revenue growth. Well tell what you that is. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Well tell what you that is. Announcer its time to make room for the new mattress models during sleep trains huge year end Clearance Sale. Get beautyrest, posturepedic, even tempurpedic mattress sets at low clearance prices save even more on floor samples, demonstrators, and closeout inventory plus, sameday delivery, setup and removal of your old set. Why wait for the new models . Sleep trains year end Clearance Sale is on now superior service, best selection, lowest price guaranteed your ticket to a better nights sleep kate kelly brought you the news about puerto rico saying it will default on part of its debt obligations on monday, although it will pay back even more. Still, on that default news, we are seeing shares of some of the bond Insurance Companies fall. The big ones are mbi and ambac, ambc, those shares are down. You also pointed out there is a third one, a smaller one but a third one. Assured guarantee. All worth watching here today. Meantime, here are the headlines were watching for you. Shares of Weight Watchers soaring 20 . Oprah winfrey making her debut as the companys spokeswoman. Pep boys is trading lower. Icon eyicahn enterprises agreei buy the company for 1 billion. Icahn enterprises hitting a new 52week low. Celgene named a top biotech pick. Look at three of the largest u. S. Airlines. Delta and united are down by double digits. The airline thats soaring in the stock market, jetblue up 45 . Southwest and Spirit Airlines are getting whacked. Theyre down about 45 . The three major carriers have usually shrugged off lowcost carrier competition but after rapid expansion, they are responding aggressively. One study showing that overall airfares for december are down as much as 24 this year. Thats some pretty good news. Seth kaplan is managing partner of airline weekly. Seth, listen, our viewers and listeners know what theyre paying for gasoline for their cars. Ive got to imagine that the airlines are just as happy about their prices at their pump, so to speak. Are we going to see ticket prices continue to fall because of low air fuel costs . Yeah. Now, the declines will probably slow down somewhat, brian. This year weve seen them really tumble, and the airlines are trying to get their hands around that because they realize at some point, you know, thats going to flatten up, and so if the fuel prices stop falling, they cant go below zero, and if the fares keep falling that can only mean one thing, lower profits in 2016 than 2015. Theyre trying to get their hands around the supply growth. But its an a race to the bottom between falling fuel prices and falling airfares. So far happily for the airlines the falling fuel prices have won the race. You know, seth, when i read this story and when we talked about it in the morning meeting, my first thought was where the heck are they falling . I fly a lot and they seem still very high to me and the airlines all seem completely full. Load factors, those are up, arent they . The airlines are still filling up their planes. They are. And theyre filling them on average though, brian, with people paying less. Absolutely. It depends on the market. If youre sitting in seattle or the dallasft. Worth metroplex, you have intense battles. Airfares have dropped, other places less so. A year ago, you tried flying on a different date or making some inconvenient connection, you were going to pay a lot whereas now its kind of creeping back in there where maybe not the exact seat that you want, but you can get a good deal again and that wasnt necessarily the case a few years ago and im talking, brian, not just about if youre flying spirit but even flying delta, united, and american. Some very low fares out there right now. Lets talk about what is the root cause of this and thats capacity expansion. This is exactly what a lot of analysts were concerned about when fuel prices hit rock bottom. We had southwest, Spirit Airlines expand capacity tremendously. That caused them to start discounting prices. That caused the bigger carriers to then respond aggressively with discounted prices. That capacity expansion wont go away overnight. The root cause will be there . Who is in the toughest spot . Will we continue to see low airfares because that capacity is simply not going to evaporate overnight. Yeah. And ironically, melissa, its the airlines that, you know, the Legacy Airlines, delta, united, and american sort of blamed for what they see as excess capacity. Airlines like spirit and others, those airlines are feeling some pressure quite simply because when fuel is have cheap, the Legacy Airlines can profit with lower airfare. Everybody is growing and youre right, melissa, in the end this is supply and demand economics. You put more supply into the marketplace, prices fall. Thats what happens with airfares. Youve gotten to a point where American Airlines is out there with fares in some markets, not all, brian, but some markets of like 40. Well, where can spirit come in under 40 to get somebody to fly spirit which they might not prefer in terms of an airline. To be clear, spirit is one of the most Profitable Airlines in the world, theyre doing fine, about you it does put pressure on them. A year or two ago they were making money coming in at price points that were much lower than prevailing airfares and getting people to fly them who might not otherwise have done so and now its becoming harder to do. Seth kaplan, it was a pleasure. Well see you in the new year. Take care. Likewise. Happy new year, brian and melissa. Check this out, these are the latest pictures out of missouri. Massive flooding throughout parts of the state. Jay nixon has called in the National Guard to assist with flood fighting effort. Roads are closed in 500 locations. Thousands of homes in missouri are reportedly threatened by this flood. Wow. A rough year for the emerging markets. Look at the etf that tracks them, the eem, down almost 20 in 2015. What about next year . We will the commodities crush bring more pain. We have your 2016 playbook. Plus coming up, a startup delivering wine by the glass. Fine box allows members to discover new wines and explore their own taste preferences. Will the panel chink it dru . Stay tuned to find out. Youre late for work. You grab your 10gallon jug of coffee, and back out of the garage. Right into your wifes car. With your wife watching. She forgives you. Eventually. Your insurance company, not so much. They say you only have their basic policy. Dont basic policies cover basic accidents . Of course, they say. As long as you pay extra for it. With a Liberty Mutual base policy, new car replacement comes standard. And for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. Learn more by calling at Liberty Mutual, every policy is personal, with coverage and deductibles, customized just for you. Which is why we dont offer any offtheshelf policies. Switch to Liberty Mutual and you could save up to 509. Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insur. Time now for our regular series power pitch. Thats where entrepreneurs get just one minute to make their pitch and then a panel of experts weighs in, asks questions, and decides if they have got what it takes to become the next big thing. Hi. Im rachel. And im matt dukes. Were two former lawyers with a shared love of wine and travel and were bringing both to you with fine box. Were the first wine by the glass club. Every month members receive one of those delivered directly to their door. Inside are three individual glasses of wine curated from all over the world. We bring the tasting room to you, exceptional wines, simple tasting notes and the stories behind the wind. Both the novice and wine connoisseur in mind, you can explore your taste preference before committing to a fullsize bottle. When you find something you love, its easy to order more by the bottle or glass. The u. S. Is the Worlds Largest wine consuming country with over 100 million wine drinkers and this industry is ripe. You just saw matt and rachels pitch. Lets meet the panel. Joining us on set is alicia syrett. She advises and invests in over two dozen startups. Also on set is Nikhil Kalghatgi with vast ventures. He invests in 50 consumer and mobile startups. And also Nir Liberboim with investment in online subscription businesses. Hello to everybody. Great to have you with us. Would you like to throw the first question out . Lets say a consumer comes to your site to discover. How do you keep them as a customer paying 35 a month for a few glasses of wine after theyve already discovered their tastes . Thats something thats great about wine is you are constantly discovering new tastes, discovering new regions. So maybe you know you like a right bank bordeaux, but then were going to introduce you to italy. So even if you know you like your taste preferences, its always changing and theres always room to grow. I love wine. I like wine with dinner. Wine with lunch sometimes, maybe even a little breakfast wine. But the problem i have is that its always one directional. Its always me buying it. I never get to indicate to the seller what i like. How do you engage with consumers after the purchase . So this is going to be the first platform that can really learn from your own tastes. So after you have three glasses of wine each month, were able to learn about your taste preferences and you can make indications on what you liked, what you didnt like through your online account and then we can cater more towards your taste. You mentioned in your pitch you have both the wine novice and the wine connoisseur in mind. How are you selling the same product to two different seg snments. With the wine novice its more of an educational aspect. It gives you the opportunity to learn about wines and discover your own taste preferences. With the connoisseur, were giving them access to wines they wouldnt otherwise have access