percent or 29 points. that's where we stand right now on this monday. >> well, despite disney's new "star wars" movie absolutely crushing it over the weekend, crushing all box office records, in fact, the stock keeps on falling. it's down another 1% today. so you're looking at trading since friday, if we can bring up that board as well. there we go. down from the $112 range to the $106 and change range as we see today. >> and, mandy, the driver here has been the btig media analyst rich greenfield's two cnbc interviews in two days. watch this. >> disney's earnings expectations for fiscal '17 and '18 are simply too high. we're 5% below the street for 2017. 8% below the street for 2018. bob eyeinger is not being truthful about the ability for espn to go direct. do you think more than half the households in the u.s. would say i have to have this. >> you're saying he's straight up lying? >> we're saying he's not being honest with investors. >> all right. there you have it. let's bring in martin pyykkonen, senior research analyst with rosen blatt securities who has a new note out on disney mai maintaining a buy position with a $130 price target. the crux of the argument that rich greenfield makes is that espn is going to suffer what an awful lot of other sort of media properties have suffered, and that is sort of the disaggregation of audience as things break up, whether it's a record album or cable subscriptions. your counter to that is what? >> well, first of all, i agree with the point that there are challenges at espn for the reasons he cites. i guess the real difference is i don't take it so far to an extreme of say downgrade the stock, talk about estimates being way too high. i think there are some challenges. i think there is some over the top migration. everybody is facing that, that's true, but this is not something that's fallen off a cliff by any means. i know some of the things you have had people on, you know, you talk about "star wars," will that make up for it in and of itself? if you do the math, it will. that doesn't really comfort an investor because they still want to see espn do well. so i think there's going to be a moderate loss of subscribers and that's that 1% to 2% maybe a year, slower migration over the top, but when you look at disney, this is a portfolio of assets all of which are suging along very well. obviously the film studio segment, the park segment, the consumer products and licensing so i think they make up for that through into 2017 as his points are addressing. >> let's talk about what "star wars" is worth to disney for just a second here. $570 million global opening weekend, and that doesn't even take into account china which opens in about three weeks' time. what do you think china will be worth? >> well, if you look at china, china is becoming the second biggest box office market in the world and within two or three years probably by one of the last "star wars" films that comes out in this regime here, it will probably be the biggest in the world. $500 million is huge. i think globally this film is going to do probably close to if not even over $3 billion. i know a lot of people are saying $2 billion but if you just trend this and you allow for the fact that china has not opened, and that's before you even get to the down stream streaming on netflix and other platforms and obviously the merchandising. so $500 million is knocking the ball out of the park and i think this is going to have long legs into the new year. it's bringing in kind of a new audience and it's bringing back the old "star wars" fans, so i think $3 billion tops is in the cards. >> martin, you must be concerned -- i want to come back to the espn thing. you must be concerned, and i sense that you are, and maybe the distinction between you and rich is the pace at which espn and other channels, hey, look, cnbc has a stake in this trend as well. >> right. >> of people unbundling or unhooking from the package of channels that they get. i mean, do you see it as a real threat to the revenue streams not only of disney and espn but of cable companies more generally? >> well, i think there is a point and i put it in the disney note today and the group i talk about it, there is a question of how quickly these other over the top skinny bundles, et cetera, revenue streams make up for the slack and there is where there's a little slippage and, yeah there, is some slippage of that revenue over the next couple years, three years, maybe for years, i just think it's a matter of magnitude. in disney's case you have a different situation with a lot of other operating leverage. you have a lot of gears in the car to move forward with. that's one that's sputtering a little bit. it is challenged in the new media way and people unbundling and young adults in particular. i think it's a matter of it being out of whack in terms of the degree of the problem being overweighted too unfairly i think at this point. >> what do you see as the biggest risk to disney's stock? >> i don't see a lot of risk to it. i think it will outperform the s&p next year as it's done this year. it's up above 15%. the market has been flat to slightly down. you've got the park segment which is really moving along well from a margin standpoint, operating margins are going up across the parks. you've got shanghai disneyland. that's going to not be a big profit contributor initially. i think that's going ton t be t big story of fiscal 2017. i think bob iger will make sure shanghai disneyland kicks off right. i think that's going to be the positive story people will talk about next year. >> martin, thank you very much, as always, for being with us. martin pie coyykkonen of rosenb. >> let's take a look at the numbers for oil. brent currently at $36.29, down by 1.6%. wti crude currently sitting down at $34.44. we're also watching nat gas with prices actually moving higher today but plunging more than 30% this year. last week nat gas hit lows not seen in more than a decade. if you live out here in the northeast, you would know we're seeing unusually warm weather and, of course, that is partly to blame. forget any hopes of a white christmas at least here in the east. this christmas eve is shaping up to be the warmest on record. here is the weather channel's chris warren. >> it's hard to believe it's almost christmastime when you go outside and feel the temperatures, and it's going to get even warmer in the coming days. let's jump ahead to christmas eve right now and take a look at just how many cities are expected to not only meet but break the record high temperature, and you can see all up and down the eastern seaboard. the reason for this ridge of high pressure is in place and it is going to keep things very warm right into christmas. and this record heat is one for the books in a big way. look at detroit. the forecast high for wednesday, 62 degrees. that record has been standing since 1893. well over 100 years. records are going to fall here in some spots. and going to crush the record on thursday in new york. the forecast high 71. 58 is the standing record in 1982. certainly not feeling like christmas. this is one holiday to remember because of the warmth. >> just amazing. so with warm weather on the horizon at least for the time being, where are natural gas prices going from here? let's bring in dan leonard, senior energy meteorologist with wsi. they call him wall street's weatherman. dan, welcome. good to see you. so gas has been down, down, down. does it go farther or what? >> yeah. the traders i talk to, they're just really not that optimistic. let's face it, we've had one of the warmest decembers of all time and you just saw chris warren showing those upcoming temps for the holiday weekend. we're going do it again next week i think with another round of 70s for most major u.s. cities in the eastern part of the country and that's really where your demand is driven from a natural gas perspective. yeah, it's been really cold and snowy in the west but they don't use that much natural gas out there, so you really need to get cold into the east. we haven't had it in december and we're well on our way to the warmest december on record for a lot of those gas demand cities from chicago and points east. it's really no surprise we're at near 15-year lows in the price of natural gas. >> and do you see any catalyst that could make it move higher? is it all weather driven and obviously the supplies are up? >> yeah. of course, we have big supplies because of all the fracking boom going on over the past couple years, so it's really a double whammy here. you have a lot of extra gas on the market and not much demand because it's been so warm. now, we tyme have a pretty decent rally today and the traders i have talked to said it's really because going into january there are some signs of a pattern change, at least back to a semblance of normal temps over the eastern half of the country, so if that does happen, and it's pretty funny we're talking about normal temps being bullish for natural gas prices, but anything but this incredible warmth that we had might be a catalyst to spur natural gas prices higher going forward, but right now it just doesn't look like any signals for any sort of a pattern that we had the past couple of years, the year before, or last year with so much cold in the east. it just doesn't look like that. >> let me throw one at you that may be out of your zone. if so just raise your hand and say i don't do that, but i'm interested in what your view is of weather temperatures and retailing. last year retailers were campaigning it was too cold and snowy and icy and people couldn't get to the stores. this year they complain that it's too warm and people don't want to go to the stores and when they get there, they're not buying the heavy winter gear that brings some higher margins. what is your thought about that? >> i would agree with that sentiment. there's probably a goldilocks pattern for u.s. retailers where it's cold and it's sometimes snowy but just not as incredibly cold and snowy as, for example, last year or the year before but not warm and dry like we've had that year at least for the eastern half of the country. there's probably a nice happy medium in there somewhere. we're not hitting it this year. there's the retailers that really rely on the business of the cold and snow to drive their product demand, and that's not going to happen this year, but we'll wait and see what happens. if the second half of the winter turns cold and snowy that can all get wiped out really quickly in the retail space. >> dan, thank you very much. we're counting down to christmas, three days to go. a huge chunk of the season sales happen in the days just before christmas. the retailers that stand to cash in from all the slow pokes and procrastinators. meantime losses for the dow and the s&p so far this year. the nasdaq is still higher. as you can see, the dow down 3.6% year-to-date and this fits stocks that have fallen out of favor with investors. you're watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. with passion. built my buss but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? and this year, look at whate he put in our driveway. the lexus december to remember sales event is here. lease the 2016 es350 for $349 a month for 36 months and we'll make your first month's payment. see your lexus dealer. to discover the best shows friends together and movies with xfinity's winter watchlist. later on, we'll conspire ♪ ♪ as we dream by the fire ♪ a beautiful sight, we're happy tonight ♪ ♪ watching in a winter watchlist land, ♪ ♪ watching in a winter watchlist land! ♪ xfinity's winter watchlist. watch now with xfinity on demand- your home for the best entertainment this holiday season. welcome back to "power lunch." shares of microsoft coming off their lows of the day so far as the market rebounds slightly here. the company was the focus of an article in barron's over the weekend that suggests it could rise 30% over the next year and a half or so helped along by hits cloud computing business. microsoft trying to close out the year with solid gains. so a large cap tech stock that could be a bullish call coming from barron's. >> thank you very much, dom. retailers are feeling the heat during the holiday homestretch this week. a new study finds that 40% of all gift sales are made last-minute with many shoppers waiting for those deeper discounts. thoughts now from industry analyst mary eppner and charlie o'shea. so it really pays to do it last minute, sflit. >> absolutely. >> talk to me about planned versus unplanned. the planned promotions and those smacking of desperation, i have to just move this stuff off the shelves. >> in planned, it's "star wars." people will say is it performing well because it's marked down? that's not the case. they plan for that. number two, fitness and tech watches and number three, selected sneakers. unplanned are the ones where the stores are getting desperate. in a nutshell, apparel. there is a tremendous amount of street wear and outer wear and fleece that, no secret, and a few brands in particular that are very hard hit. >> like which once? >> ralph lauren, michael kors in apparel and handbags, and then there are also fashion watches that are just tanking from last year. >> we'll talk about the brands that are suffering in a second. >> exactly, yes. >> charlie, you penned a great piece about walmart's heavy spending which might help narrow that online gap with amazon. we joke about how retailers are living in amazon's world, but isn't walmart still winning? >> yes, they are. if you look at their sales growth over the last four years, walmart is actually ahead. the problem you run into when you look at the two companies is amazon, as big as it is, is still coming off a low base compared to walmart. walmart is at almost $500 million in revenue. amazon just cracked $100 million. if you go back farther you see walmart 20 years ago when amazon started was less than $100 billion, has grown $400 million in revenue while amazon has gone from zero to a hundred. we focus more on the dollars rather than the percentage growth. walmart at $500 billion grows 2% a year, that's $10 billion. that's a lot of growth in dollars. >> how do you think amazon is going to respond to walmart's ech efforts to try to narrow the online gap? >> i think amazon is starting to take some steps where they will do a better job of getting product to customers quicker and have more control over it. one of the things we focused on for a long time and we have been on this for about four years is the last mile. who controls the last mile? and right now amazon does not control the last mile for many of its customers. uses u.p.s., fed ex, the postal service. the brick and mortar guys, including wart mart, best buy, target, controls the last mooil because you can do a buy online, pick up in store, get it whenever you want it and they're not as reliant on the third-party shippers. >> what are your observations, mary, with walmart versus amazon? amazon has been so aggressive this season. i get so many e-mails, promotional e-mails in my inbox every day. >> correct. i think the biggest thing is what is the product that walmart offers and is it compelling? and i think it's more compelling in apparel and accessories than it has been before, and in particular in electronics where we've really seen some enormous growth in spite of the already enormous growth, so i think that walmart stands to pick up there and i'm with charlie in thinking that they have an opportunity more so than is reflected in what's been said prior to today. >> so last but not least, which brands are suffering apart from as you talk about the fleeces and the big woolly -- the sweaters and things we all need for colder weather. apart from that which brands are suchering? >> i think one of the biggest categories is costume watches. fossil brands, timex brands, they are flooding the off price market. >> because of the apple watch? >> because there's not a lot of newness in the costume watch business, and also a lot of brands -- or a lot of stores are moving more of their assortment to tech watches for spring and the customers just had enough of these, and so if there isn't newness, there's no reason to buy. so the discounts are more pronounced than expected, and then also again a michael kors, a ralph laure lawyeren the disc are deep. >> we the customer win. >> thank you both of you. >> tyler come on in here. >> i was chilly and i wanted to warm myself by the fire. >> nice to have you. >> you don't mind, do you? >> no. did you bring marshmallows? >> i know i'm out of the light but i got the nice backward glow from the warm fire. very nice. well, check out shares of chipotle and mcdonald's. this year chipotle down more than 20%. mickey d's up 25%. they don't have a fire like this in their stores at all. what's next for the food sector next year? we have your playbook next. very nice. welcome back to "power lunch." i'm mandy drury. shares of tiffany moving higher by 3.5%. the luxury jewelry retailer upgraded to buy from hold at jeffries with jeffries calling it a rare opportunity to get in at a discount. tiffany stock, by the way, has lost its sparkle this year down about 30%. that's a 30% discount, folks. joy global higher by 2.5 b%. upgraded to market perform from underperform at fbr noting their cost cutting. the stock is down more than 70% this year. and winnebago moving lower, not hugely, by about 0.6%. the rv-maker unveiling its new ceo naming michael happ, a 19-year veteran from toro. >> mandy, shares of u.s. steel have hitting their highs of the day. they're up by around 5.5%. the company has announced a tentative contract agreement with the united steel workers union covering 18,000 workers. u.s. steel ceo saying the agreement is in the best interests of the company as well as its employees. it comes at the end of the tough year for a stock, down about 70% year-to-date amid slowing demand and low priced imports. still right now u.s. steel is now a billion dollar company. >> thank you very much. as 2015 draws to a close, cnbc breaks out the 2016 playbook helping you stay ahead of the trends in the coming year. this hour it's food. here is jane wells. >> food, glorious food. fast, fresh, funky. here are three trends to watch in the food biz in 2016. first, delicious deliveries. delivery isn't just for pizza anymore. all kinds of fast food restaurants are utilizing delivery services and in 2016 it's predicted those choices will expand faster than your burrito belly. taco bell uses services like door dash. spoon rocket is making their own fast food to deliver. if you still want to cook, you can. food business.net predicts more doorstep dinner kits. second, out of africa. chefs tell the national restaurant association customers should expect for african flavors on the menu and more ethnic condiments as america searches for the next sriracha. third, the cost of fresh and healthy. consumers are demanding more fresh locally sourced food. expect chains that promote additive free. that's not the only cost. fast few wages are rising. that could be passed onto consumers, meaning the price of the cupcakes you just order for delivery could leave you a little frosted. whole foods also out just today with its trends to watch including wine in a can and more dehydrated food snacks beyond kale chips to dehydrated brussels sprouts or broccoli or even salmon. in other words, guys, the more out there, the better. >> jane, you nknow, what about mak mcdonald's? what's next for it? >> you know, mcdonald's as we've been talking about on this network a lot is doing its turnaround and in january it's going to roll out a mcpick menu where you can pick two things for $2 but it's going to try to emphasize that its food is better, and that's a trend in qsr, quick service, that fast food is better than it used to be or better than you think it is. >> jane, thank you very much. jane wells reporting. >> you bet. >> mandy? >> i also read to expect more bugs on the menu next year. it's good protein, cheap to produce, and low fat. let's check on the bond market right now. you have the prices for the five-year, the seven-year, and ten-year. yield on the ten-year up. the 30-year the yield is 2.915%. that's a look at what we're seeing for treasuries as we speak. tyler, over to you. >> apple's ceo tim cook blasting congress last night in a "60 minutes" interview. he said the current corporate tax code is outdated. what's the best way to fix it? plus, the land of misfit stocks. the stocks that have fallen out of favor with investors. we'll tell you which ones they are and what their pros pegpect might be after this. they come into this iworld ugly and messy. ideas are frightening because they threaten what is known. they are the natural born enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, >> apple's ceo tim cook blasting are and what their prospects (politely) wait, wait, wait! yyou have to rinse it first.t, what's that, alfredo? no, that can go in. no it can't! what are you, nuts? that's baked-on alfredo. baked-on? it's never gonna work. dish issues? trust your dishwasher with cascade platinum. it powers... through... your toughest stuck-on food. better than finish. (to the hostess) see, told you it would work... (turns to girl 2) you guys heard me say that, right? cascade. the tougher tough-food cleaner. cto everything from surfers welcomingto seals.ul home attracting visitors from around the world, around the year. along the coast, protected areas are set aside to preserve a fragile community of animals and plants. to protect these natural wonders, here's what to know before you go. stay at least 300 feet away from seals. this is their home. don't touch marine life in tide pools. take away your trash and your happy memories. always enjoy and protect our marine habitats. i'm sharon epperson and here is your cnbc news update for this hour. six american soldiers were killed when a suicide bomber attacked their patrol near bagram air base in afghanistan. three more soldiers were injured. the taliban claimed responsibility for the attack. the fda has lifted the 32-year-old lifetime ban on gay and bisexual men donating blood as long as they've abstained from sex for 12 months. it follows similar restrictions in australia, japan, and the uk. gay rights activists still called it a step in the right direction. upstate new york got clobbered with up to three feet of snow. there still might not be a white christmas as warmer temperatures and rain is in the forecast. twitch marks the first time in over a century there hasn't been a trace of snow by december in the region. russians lining up in moscow's red square to pay tribute to josef stalin on the 136th anniversary of his birth. officials from the communist party led a procession of red flags and red flowers for the former communist leader. that's the cnbc just update at this hour. back to you, mandy. >> thank you very much. the final gold trades are crossing. jackie deangelis joins us from the nymex. >> good afternoon. gold closing just around session highs. $1,080. it was a $15 move on the day. weaker dollar certainly supportive but also some profit taking of those who were short gold, especially as we headed into that fed decision. more news on europe this week could create some volatility, but remember as we get closer to christmas, volumes are going to thin out because of the holiday. where we stand now within the range that traders were expected. they're looking for to us bounce around between $1,055 and $1,092. that's what they're calling for. so those are the levels to watch to the upside and the downside. mandy? >> thank you very much, jackie. tyler, over to you at the wall with dom. >> i am here with dom. in the spirit of the holidays dom takes a look at stocks that have been tossed aside like old toys. >> like the land -- the island of misfit toys. >> what did you find? we have a nice little animation. >> can you spot rudolph? he makes a cameo, a very quick one. if you missed him, i'll tell where you it is. you saw him. >> at the bottom. i wouldn't have found him if you didn't tell me. >> here is the interesting part. we know the markets have been posting marginal losses over the course of 2015 however one index that's been doing very well is the nasdaq composite. they're up by 5%. the nasdaq 100, the largest of the stocks, doing even better up by 7% but there are losers. we know the large cap tech stocks have been helping to power the way. look at some of the names that have been cast off the land of misfit stocks at least in the large cap nasdaq 100. first of all, there's one we perhaps know about and a little more so because it's been in the news very recently. staples on the office supply side. up so far but year-to-date down nearly half it's value. down here is when we saw antitrust concerns coming with the pending office depot merger. that's playing and weighing on the stock here. also on the casino side of things, wynn resorts even though steve wynn has bought a whole bunch more stock for his personal account, the stock has still lost over half of its value year-to-date. cast aside, concerns about macao gaming weighing on that stock. and one more, it was a darling over the last few years. if you look at micron technology, year-to-date down nearly 60%. this stock over the last couple years had been a huge, huge performer and now it's fallen really out of favor as perhaps some of the flash memory chips it makes becomes more xh commoditiz commoditized. three of the stocks that have been cast off to the land of mitt fit stocks. >> thank you very much, dominic chu. with just seven trading days left in 2015, the markets are gearing up for what could be a break even year with 2016 of course just around the corner. what should investors be looking out for. joining us, drew canally and john buckingham. thank you very much for joining us, guys. drew, the dow and s&p are down. the nasdaq is higher but is it too late to expect at least a break even by the year end? >> oh, i think we're past the tax loss selling, so, yeah, i think we can move past break even as managers rebalance their portfolios having taken all their losses. and i think now that the fed decision is behind us and everybody can kind of digest that, portfolios are going to get readjusted and we might see some nice positive returns between now and year end. >> people are obviously hoping for that, but at the same time since the fed decision, john, and the fed hike, the fact we've seen such volatility, is it a feeling in the market that the fed no longer has our back? that the yellen put is no longer there? >> well, the fed is extremely accommodative still. if you look at what's happened in the bond market since the fed raised rates, bond yields have gone down. obviously stock prices have gone down which boosts dividend yield payouts as well. so i don't think investors are worried that the fed is somehow going to jack interest rates up dramatically. if anything the fed is super duper accommodative. keep in mind with rates at 25 to 50 basis points, think about a money market fund or money market fund manager, they've had to subsidize money market funds for several years now because of low interest rates. i just don't see that getting passed on to investors. so equities remain very attractive in my mind, especially dividend-paying stocks even though the fed has actually moved. if you look at market history, when the fed has initiated rate hikes and we just put out a special report called don't fight the fed, value stocks like we favor and dividend stocks have done quite well. >> and you also like financials, right, john? even though you think the fed is going to remain, you know, fairly accommodative and financials do benefit from rising rates, but you still like the financials, no? >> well, absolutely, and that's been the bizarre thing. on friday financials got crushed, so bank stocks, fifth third bank corp, keycorp, insurance companies like prudential financial and metlife, i think those are attractive areas to invest in. generally speaking you're getting generous dividend yields there and the potential for earnings to grow over the next several years as the fed raises rates. so i think there's lots of opportunity in this market. you do have to be selective though. >> drew, you also like the financials, but i see here along with financials energy being your favorite sector. so are you saying you think the bottom is in for crude? that's a bold call considering a lot of fingers have been burnt -- >> i would be an outlier there, wouldn't i? >> when we talk about energy in this context we're most likely talking about down stream, not the exploration and production companies, but down stream and we'd even be talking boldly about the master limited partnerships, mlps, that have absolutely been just ironed out this year, and we see value there. we see value in the part of the energy sector that refining and marketing, all those are going to do fine. don't forget, you know, there is a potential for an upside surprise if we get any type of demand growth in 2016. we're still looking for global growth around 3%. somebody is going to be looking for more btus year-over-year. so there is a good chance we see a little strength in energy and we bottom out for the whole energy sector in 2016. >> okay. >> thank you very much to both of you. drew kanaly and john buckingham. >> thank you. >> for more on where john buckingham sees stocks heading over the next six months, go to powerlunch.cnbc.com. tyler? >> all right, mandy. an animated tim cook says allegations that apple is scheming to avoid taxes is total political crap. is apple avoiding taxes or does the u.s. tax code need to be changed? a debate coming up. td ameritradk hard. wow, that was random. random? no it's all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3:12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. this happens every third tuesday. we have pattern recognition technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. there's no way to predict that. for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. at&t knows the best kind of holiday... is the kind where everyone gets what they wished for. make this holiday extra happy when you buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones... like the samsung galaxy s6. buy one get one free. so spread some cheer. and capture every minute of it. right now at at&t, buy one get one free on our most popular smartphones. i built my business with passion. but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. i earn unlimited 2% cash back on everything i buy for my studio. ♪ and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... that's huge for my bottom line. what's in your wallet? all right. a big interview with apple ceo's tim cook on "60 minutes "last night. a hot topic, the amount of taxes apple pays. >> this is a tax code, charlie, that was made for the industrial age, not the digital age. it's backwards. it's awful for america. it should have been fixed many years ago. it's past time to get it done. >> but here is what they concluded, apple is engaged in a sophisticated scheme to pay little or no corporate taxes on $74 billion in revenues held overseas. >> that is total political crap. there is no truth behind it. apple pays every tax dollar we owe. >> so which is it? is apple consciously trying to avoid taxes or is the tax code in need of fixing? or is it a little of both? joining me now is jared bernstein, former chief economist for vice president biden and larry kudlow, also a cnbc contributor. larry, i know you know the history and i think it was oliver wendell holms who said basically what mr. cook said, do you not owe more tax than the tax code says you must pay. are they doing anything wrong here? >> absolutely not. by the way, i knew oliver wendell holmes and he told me that many times. i love tim cook, political crap, it's exactly right, and his other point is, look, this is an industrial age tax system at 40%. he has a fiduciary responsibility to his shareholders to increase profits and value, and if that means cutting the tax bill in some way, shape, or form, so be it, but as he said, apple pays a ton of taxes anyway. let's change the tax code. >> and i think jared, fundamentally you agree with that idea that the way the tax code is structured right now, it causes companies to arbitrage the rates. what would you have us do? >> well, first of all, no question that both apple is a major tax avoider, not tax evader. nothing they're doing is illegal and i think tim cook is probably right when he says they pay what they owe. the problem is they owe so much less than a domestically sourced corporation that they have a huge tax advantage by having all these multinational schemes going on, and they are schemes, but they are legal. so, for example, what apple does is it books its profits in very low tax countries like ireland and it books its expenses where it can deduct them in higher tax countries like us. in a sense your introduction was right on both points. apple does a lot of tax avoiding and our corporate code, especially vis-a-vis multinationals needs to be revamped. >> mr. cook would argue and i'll let larry make this point as well, would argue that 70% or thereabouts of their revenue and profit are overseas. >> right. these are multinational corporations. that's the point cook tried to make to charlie rose. we have a tax system for the industrial age. now we need a tax system for the digital age. we also, he could have said, we need a tax system for the multinational age, okay? and all these political guys, jared, they're your pals, instead of punishing -- instead of punishing apple and literally dozens and dozens and dozens of american corporations, let's have some tax reform. let's go from 40% to 15%. let's have easy repatriation, maybe at 5% and then go to territorial and let's have immediate write-offs of new business investments. >> so what does larry mean when he says territorial, jared? >> first of all, territorial means that you pay the tax in the country where you're located and you don't have to remit any tax to your -- to the country of origin which would be the u.s. in the case of apple. so, listen, larry is right that we have to reform the code but i have a much better way to do it because the way he wants to go, i'm afraid, larry, and you know i love you especially around the holidays, what he wants to do is end up with a more diminished revenue base. >> no, no. >> how about this, larry. 20% minimum tax. that is a multinationals pay 20% on their foreign earnings so they don't have to get involved in deferral. they don't have to get in double dutch irish sandwiches and try to hide all this income offseas. just a simple minimum 20%. >> no, no, no, no, no. that's way too high a burden. china is at 25%. we should be at 15%. we should have the lowest in the world or among the lowest in the world. the repatriation question -- look, jared, let me step back. between repatriation and new tax incentives which includes expensing, i'm going to tell you, buddy, hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars located overseas, not only american firms, but nonamerican firms, will come to the united states because we have a favorable tax system -- >> so -- >> hang on. >> it's the worst of both worlds. i agree with you. >> this is the worst business investment cycle we've ever seen. >> let me say -- larry let me just say -- we're short on time here. let me just say the problem is apple actually pays less than 15% as an effective rate on their overseas earnings. they pay something like 7%, 8%, and even lower than that because they're just deferring, so if we go to 15%, they're still going to say it's too high. >> no, they won't. >> we get can't into that kind of race to the bottom or we will gut our revenues and won't be able to produce the kind of infrastructure that apple depends on. >> jared, no, respectfully and i love you especially around the holidays, these reforms i'm suggesting, 15% no, double tax on foreign profits, immediate expensing, jared, we will make money. it will pay for itself in five years. it will grow the economy by at least a percentage point faster. it will create new investment that creates the best kind of middle income jobs. >> jared, you must know this number, and forgive me for not knowing it. of all american tax revenue, what percent comes from corporate income tax? >> well, let me see, corporate income tax used to be 20% of tax revenue at the federal level. now it's 10%. and that's from the 1960 to about now. so it's really collapsed. i think larry and i might be able to hammer out a compromise here. i think he's way too low based on this kind of supply side if you really lower the taxes you'll get more revenue. i think he's just kind of over amping that kind of elasticity but i think there's a compromise here. we're at 35%, 40%, larry wants to go to 15%. something in the range of 20%, 25% might work but we'll have to close the loopholes so it's revenue neutral, larry. >> absolutely. you know i have always argued for closing the loopholes. i hate the loopholes. i hate corporate welfare and cronyism so i'm with you. you talk about 15% to 20%. 20 -- think 20 -- >> 120 to 25%. >> don't do go to 25%. we need to beat the rest of the world. go to 15%. jared, i'm telling you, if you have the right kind of incentives money will flow to the united states like it did many years ago. the trouble is we are not treating foreign capital hospitably. if we do, that capital will come home. the chinese money will come home to the united states. we'll build more jobs. you love jobs and wages, so do i. >> it's actually not that hard to get that money to come back. larry is absolutely right. you just cut the rate to something very low. in fact, the last tax repatriation was a 5% rate. the problem is it doesn't turn into jobs, it just turns into profits and dividends. i'm not against profits and dividends, but we actually need employment. we need revenues and we can't gut the corporate side of the code so i think there is a promise here but it's not at 15%. it's more at 25%, 28%, that kind of number. >> actually i prefer 10% like ireland but we'll leave that alone. look, let me just say one thing on the other point. if companies pay shareholders dividends or buybacks or whatever, that money doesn't go under a mattress, jared. >> i understand. >> that money is reinvested. all you're doing here, a you will i'm suggesting is lowering the cost of capital, and what will happen? capital will flow back to the u.s. from all over the world. it's so simple. i don't know why the democrats don't pick this up. >> well, i would say the president has proposed a tax reform with a minimum overseas tax. it's a simple way -- >> no -- >> it's a simple way to square -- gee wants to penalize the companies 19% on repatriation. that's crazy. >> i'm sorry to have to interrupt. i love the spirit and i know you guys love each other and i love you both at the holidays -- >> jared is the best on the democratic side. >> all right, guys. thanks very much. larry and jared. appreciate it very much. mandy. >> they're going to have to agree to disagree. a company suing its best customer seems unusual, right? not in the defense industry where companies have to fight tooth and nail over huge contracts. also brian sullivan is here with the preview. >> we don't have that fiery corporate tax debate but we do have this, could the worst finally be over for oil? we'll hear from wells fargo's cop new oil man. plus one top retail analyst says buy this unamazonable stock. that's their term. and if you were a billionaire back in 1995, chances are you aren't anymore. more on the heart-tugging story of the billionaire bust when "power lunch" returns. this is a great place to work. not because they have yoga meetings and a juice bar. because they're getting comcast business internet. comcast business offers convenient installation appointments that work around your schedule. and it takes- done. - about an hour. get reliable internet that's up to five times faster than dsl from the phone company. call 800-501-6000 to switch today. perks are nice. but the best thing you can give your business is comcast business. comcast business. built for business. start looking for a house? oh did you see that listing on zillow i sent you. you see that bathroom? did we just decide to buy house? i think so. yay! find your way home. zillow. it's gotten squarer. over the years. brighter. bigger. it's gotten thinner. even curvier. but what's next? for all binge watchers. movie geeks. sports freaks. x1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. welcome back to "power lunch." i'm mandy drury. here are this hour's power points with stocks moving higher but off the session highs. oil still under pressure and gold closing moments ago with prices around two-week highs. tech, health care, and materials are leading the sectors. utilities and energy are lagging. jpmorgan meantime leading the dow. one oak is leading the s&p 500 and wynn resorts is leading the nasdaq 100 higher. i'd also take a look at the etf that tracks u.s. aerospace and defense stocks. it's basically flat on the year, but coming up we're going to take a look at the big battles those defense companies are engaged in. they're fighting one another and the government over billions of dollars of contracts. plus, have you ever wondered why something as big as the death star has such a fatal flaw? it's not the only security issue with "star wars"? there's more examples coming up. there's more examples coming up. " there's more examples coming up. so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition! welcome back to "power lunch." shares of natural gas pipeline company oneok and it's associated partners are surging today. the companies issued a forecast better than some investors had expected. they expect their dividend to stay flat and oneok partner says it doesn't expect to conduct any public stock offerings in 2016. it's important to note they have been beaten up very badly this year and the big bounces today follow very large declines. the question is whether the balances for the master limited partnerships and associated companies can be sustained. back over to you. >> that is the question. thank you very much, dom. lockheed martin it suing its biggest customer, the pentagon, over a contract it lost out on, but that is not unheard of in the defense industry where battles over billions apparently are happening all the time. jane wells, tell us more. >> well, mandy, sue something a rare step but it is a sign of the times with fewer big contracts coming down the pipe. lockheed lost out on making the new humvee for the army. it lost out to oshkosh. that's a nearly $7 billion contract. first, it filed a protest with the government accountability office, but after lockheed made it clear it was just going to go ahead to federal court, the gao dismissed the protest. the question for oshkosh, is it going to have to stop work on this contract until that lawsuit is heard. well, not yet. meantime, lockheed is protesting to the gao over an even bigger contract. the air force bomber contract which went to northrop grumman. lockheed and boeing have filed a 133-page protest with the gao. northrup has also filed its paperwork. the gao has to decide on that protest by mid january. so stay tuned. and finally, signs of the times, not everything in the defense industry is about bickering over billions. raytheon, which just won a $2 billion missile contract, has been analyzing the technology used a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, specifically in the first "star wars" trilogy. how did they use tech? for one thing they weren't very. >> hurry. >> look how easy it was for r 2-d 2shg to hack in and stop the trash compacter. leia did a terrible job encrypting her message. but on the plus side, both sides were, quote, masters of directed energy and we're not just talking about lightsabers and blasters but the energy of the force. mandy, i have a bad feeling about this. >> very well done, very well done. very timely as well, of course. >> what i can't get over is how different harrison ford looked there, how young he looked there. that was 40 years ago. >> he was so hot. >> 40 years ago. >> i think we all had the biggsest crush on harrison ford. >> i wonder what he made for the first movie as opposed to this mov movie. >> i heard -- this is the truth -- i heard he was getting paid $1,000 a week. >> in first movie. >> that he didn't even have a contract. he is just paid on a weekly basis. that's whey heard. >> he was not a big star then at all. >> didn't he first get his break -- i'm sure there's some fans out there who know the truth, but i heard like some sort of urban legend he started out as a carpenter on one of the sets of a movie. >> he was. >> and then, you know, he was kind of hot and good looking and bit of a hero and the director said, hey, you, do you want to be in the movie or something like that? >> george lucas put him in "american graffiti" where he was a strong, silent type and then after that was "star wars." >> on the note of hot and good looking, that's it for the first hour and over to brian sullivan, hot and good look pentagon. >> are you talking about the 1:00 or the 2:00? they're both applicable. thank you very much. it's 2:00 p.m. on wall street, 10:00 a.m. in gnome, alaska, speaking of hot, not. i'm brian sullivan. melissa lee is at the nasdaq and we begin with your markets and your money. with just eight trading days left in the year, the dow is close to posting its first annual loss since 2008. and though there is always plenty to be worried about, there is also a lot for investors to be thankful for. let's talk the pros and cons of, john stof fuss and paul hickey are with us. the question of the moment, john, if you're a short-termer, is do you think we're going to get enough of -- i hate to use the term santa claus rally, but i will -- before the end of the year that we will not finish with a down year for the dow. 3.5% is a long way to go in eight days. >> i got to say i think it is, brian, and as you know, i'm usually pretty positive. but it looks like the grinch that stole christmas just might be visiting the exchange but we're not going to give it up. we'll say we go for at least flat to slightly positive for the end of the year. >> flat to slightly positive. not exactly scrooge and marley-esque but not overly optimistic. why do you think this year has been so different than recent years past? we've actually only had two down years in the past 13. >> brian, i think it really -- you got to put it on the dollar, the strength of the dollar hurt the s&p 500 in particular. we're about 40% of revenues come from outside of the country. that impacted earnings for the s&p and then you had earnings in the third quarter and in the second they weren't all that good either for energy down around 65%. you boil that into the mix, it leaves investors kind of chilled out and -- not chilled out relaxed but feeling kind of chilly when it comes to buying the s&p 500. on top of that you had everybody was worried about the fed and then everybody overreacted to china's devaluation in august. so it put the market on a weak foot. >> you know, paul, the downside to the upside of the past six years is that as prices have come up and earnings have not gone up as fast, the valuation of the overall market has gone up to right around historically norms. is the market just kind of fairly valued here and we could be in for a period of doll drugdrums for a while? >> i think that's a really good point. there is a lot to be thankful for, like you said, and if this is a down year, i'll take down years because it's not too bad of a down year, but the valuation -- housing is good, the employment in the u.s. economy is good, but valuations are above average. pretty much no matter how you look at it, you're looking at above average valuations now whereas in prior years you would have to point to some segment of valuation to say that we're overvalued, but now it's hard to find anything that says the market is cheap here. there's really not much saying that. you could say relative to interest rates it's cheap, but interest rates are, you know, going higher albeit at a very slow rate. >> the thing on that is definitely when we look forward, we see very, very slow rate because the global economy and the u.s. economy won't take an aggressive policy, and we've got to figure if the trailing 12-month multiple going back on average over the last 40 years -- 50 years comes out to about 16.3 and the trailing multiple today is just around 17, we're not looking too bad, you know, on a relative basis. >> paul, paul, i want to get in here and ask you a question because how do the last two trading days that we had, which were pretty deep sell-offs, how does that inform you about how you think we're going to trade in 2016? >> i wouldn't read too much of the last two trading days. i think all of 2015 has been a gridlock market. we've seen positives and then counter balanced by negatives and we're right where we started the year pretty much. so anything you point to that's good, there's a negative offset to it. but i think, you know, what is good to be said about this year is that the market has done nothing and so you've allowed some consolidation, and we've looked back in the past at years where you have done little or nothing in the market plus or minus 3%. there's been ten years where that's happened in the past, eight out of ten years the market has been higher in the following year. so these dull years as they say have typically been followed by nice gains later on. i think though we have this first fed rate hike taking place and invariably after a long pause you see turbulence in the market to the tune of about 5% at least following those periods when they first hike if you go back in history. >> not uncommon, not uncommon at all. the other thing is if you look back over the last 50 years, the market usually when it has either a negative or a flat year, the next year is up and that goes all the way back to 1965. '73 to '74 were the exception as well 2000, 2001, and 2002, but even 2008 saw substantial gain in 2009. >> we got to go, guys, but that's what's amazing. i think people didn't think the market has done well. the last two times the dow fell back-to-back years was 2001 and 2002. happy new year, guys. >> same to you. >> take care. >> so we know that oil is definitely a big worry for wall street, and though a few months ago many were calling for a rebound by years end, we obviously know that did not happen. is there any sign that the worst may really, truly, really we mean it this time, be behind the crude oil market? john la forge is the new co-head of real assets at wells fargo. john, welcome. congrats on the new role. good to see you there from florida. listen, you know, i need 75 of my co-workers hands to count the number of fingers of people who have been on the show that said oil will end the year higher. that obviously has not happened. what's your prediction for oil and how much real visibility do you think you have on the top snik. >> yeah. good to see you, brian. not bad visibility, but a lot of my research is based on history, and what history says we're forming a major low right now. so supply and demand growth is starting to balance. that's a big plus, so that's number one. number two, your major support technically is the low from 2008 which was $31, and then third what you have is down 65%. i heard one of your earlier guests say it. down 65%. it's the third worst drop since 1983, and those mixture, that combined mixture of what's going on usually forms a bottom. so all the bad fundamentals you hear out there, yeah, it is bad. i'm not refuting all the bad information, but that's usually the way it works. you get to the bottom, it's truly bad and no one wants to believe it and i think we're starting to turn that corner. >> fair enough, john, and your point is well taken because that is what history has shown and every time people say we're done, oil seems to go up. however, history also says that the bottoming process could be multiyear and last for longer than anybody thinks. >> yeah, that would not match up with the history of commodity super cycles back to the 1700s. usually when you get a bounce, you get a significant bounce. oil is a good example. the average bounce once you found its major low a year later is nearly 70%. six months later it's closer to 40%. so oil typically doesn't bounce and then just pop a little bit and go sideways. what it does is usually pops that 40% within six months. then it goes sideways for more or less a decade it goes back and forth. >> if you go to the '90s, we have from -- i'm just going to throw the numbers out there, going from memory here, '39 to -- '93 to '94, oil was like 19 bucks. yes, there were trading opportunities if you're a commodity trader, but if you were looking for a sustained long-term change in the price, it didn't happen for basically a decade. >> absolutely agree. it's exactly how super cycles die is you get most of the damage is in the first five to seven years. that's what we just witnessed from 2011 and down. oil was one of the last commodities to finally fall. what happens over the next decade or so, because the average bear market lasts 20 years, this is back 300 years' worth of data -- >> that's all you got, 300? >> yeah, only 300. but the next 15 years typically is a lot of sideways action. the one counterpoint is those counter trend rallies you're talking about, and you're correct, in the '80s and '90s once it found its bottom, oil bounced between $15 and $25 consistently from 1986 all the way to 1999. that's a long trading band. however, the counter trend rallies will last sometimes 18 months, 2 years. so they don't have to be trading rallies as in a couple weeks. they can last just realize you're still within that tding band and that's how super cycles die and that's how to play them. >> a good long -- i think we could be talking about whale oil actually back on your 300-year analysis. >> john laforge. thank you. congrats on the new role. we'll see you soon. take care. >> appreciate it. much more ahead on "power lunch" including one red hot solar stock that has nearly doubled this month that many big names on wall street absolutely hate. the ceo of solar city will join melissa coming up. plus further truth that everying is not apples to apples in tech land. and if you were a billionaire in 1995, chances are you aren't one anymore. we'll talk more about the billionaire bust when "power lunch" returns. welcome back. we just talked about oil, let's talk about natural gas. here is the good news, natural gas is up 8%. good i guess if you're in the nat gas business. here is the bad news, that 8% gain for natural gas only represents a move to $1.91. so nat gas despite an 8% jump is still below 2 bucks. natural gas literally you think oil is oversupplied, nat gas can't get out of its own way. shares of joy global moving higher following an upgrade at fbr. the analyst says the company is making the right moves to cut costs. shares of u.s. steel also moving higher after the company reached a tentative deal with the unite the steel workers union. the deal covers roughly 28,000 workers at more than a dozen u.s. locations. and as oil falls there are more new lows for many well-known oil stocks. hess down by more than 2%. williams down a half. kinder morgan and cimarex down nearly 5%. brian, solar stocks getting a major boost after congress passed a $1.1 trillion spending bill that included some major tax breaks for solar companies. solar city though a big standout, nearly doubling in the past month alone. joining us now linden ride, the ceo of solar city. it's always great to see you. >> thank you very much for having me. >> your stock has had a tremendous run in the past month. certainly you've had some major victories. the itc extension. it seems investors are rerating your stock. is there any change in how you're going to run the company now that itc has been extended since when you talked to investors at the end of the last quarter, the earnings period? >> yeah. so just look at our historic performance. we've been growing roughly 80%, 90% year over year for the last ten years. to maintain that growth rate is just not realistic. so for next year we're still going to be growing 40%, 50% which is still big for a company our size. we have 15,000 employees so to grow at 40%, 50% for the size we're at is still high growth. >> okay. because investors walked away from the last earnings report as you know and they were disappointed because it sounded like you went from a grow at all costs sort of mentality to let's be more rational about how we view growth at this point. with the itc extension that has not changed at all because i'm getting the message from some analysts that perhaps you can turn back on the growth switch because of this extension. >> yeah. so we're not going to slow down growing. we're going to grow at a fast pace but 40%, 50% of the size that we are right now is incredibly fast-paced. what's important for us when we look at our future growth is we want to make sure we don't grow faster than the capital that we get in. right now we are consuming roughly $70 million of cash a quarter. we want to get to a point where we're generating cash every quarter, and the reason for that consumption is because we're growing so fast and investing into the future. now, if we slowed down the growth slightly, the income that we get from the systems that we deploy will exceed the investment for the future growth, so that's still the strategy, we still want to get to the point where we generate cash every quarter. >> does the itc extension move up your target of when you become tax flow positive? >> no, we're still going to achieve cash flow positive in 2016. no nothing changes in 2016. this makes a massive difference for 2017 but for 2016, it's the same economics, everything stayed exactly the same. >> okay. i want to get to some comments jim chanos, a note the short seller, made last week on "the closing bell." he has a short position in your stock if you can just take a listen and then we'll get your reaction. >> if you look at the company and you eliminate almost all their expenses, you assume they didn't market, they didn't knock door to door, they -- the return on capital is 7%. and even with the move in the stock the company's bonds yield more than 7%. so the company is burning about $500 million a quarter. so all this itc extension will do is enable them to keep burning hundreds of millions of dollars per quarter. >> so that true? >> no. let's correct a few things. our cash burn is just -- if you look at the last quarter, just a little over $70 million. remember, we'rinvesting into the future. for that $70 million, we deployed an incredible amount of solar assets. over $700 million of solar assets that quarter. that's the business. we invest into the future. and if you look at the returns, i don't know where he gets the 7% return, but unlevered returns is roughly 11% to 12%. >> okay. i want to get at though sort of this issue that i think chanos is making more broadly with the itc. when i talked to you and other solar ceos prior to the extension, all of you guys said itc step down is going to be a good thing, it will shake out the weaker players in the industry, it will be a benefit to the ones that have scale such as a solar city. so in this case with thei tc extension, do you think there's going to be a sort of bubble, there are going to be certain companies out there that are propped up because of the benefit of the tax credits? >> yeah. i was never one of the company that is said this would be a good thing if the itc was not extended. look, humanity has to transform its energy infrastructure. we've got to do more to get the transformation to occur, not less. yes, if the tax credit expired, companies like solar city would be fine. we have a low enough cost structure to continue to grow with a 10% tax credit instead of a 30% tax credit. it would have been okay for solar city but it wouldn't have been the right choice. we've got to enable this industry to grow. we've got to have more in this business. it's a massive business. it's a trillion dollar infrastructure that we have to change over over the next 20 years. >> okay. we're going to leave it there. thanks so much for joining us. always great to speak with you. >> thank you so much for having me. >> lyndon rive. >> as apple stock sags, guess who is on the rise? blackberry. some stats you have got to see about this once let for dead tech stock. and here are your monday winners on wall street, not all of them, but a few, oneok, tenet health care, consol energy, and nrg all solid in the green. oneok and tenet up more than 10%. if you own them, congrats. we're back right after this. why have so maple leaf ny a gotten it wrong on blackberry? of the 20 analysts only 2 have a buy or an overweight rating on the name. all the rest either have a hold or a sell. the mean target price on blackberry is $7.75 a share. the stock currently at $8.81, and look at these returns this quarter. this is this quarter. you knew apple was down. probably why they were on "60 minutes" last night. stock is down 4% this yaur. goi quarter. google and microsoft have done well but each pale compared to blackberry which is up 42% and up 15% in just the past week. here is the question. is blackberry making some gains back into market share? we've got gene munster with piper jaffray, he has an overweight rating on apple. also with us is jon fortt. we will get to gene and apple in one second. a lot to talk about there. jon fortt, i know you talked to blackberry, spoke with the ceo recently. but device, the priv, however you pronounce it, has gotten pretty good reviews. just because the stock is doing well doesn't mean blackberry is doing well. how do you see it? >> the stock is still down for the year overall. it's down trying to get back to $9. the past quarter has been good for them. the issue is a lot of people misunderstand what john chen's strategy is right now. they're under $5 billion in market cap. this isn't a hardware company the way it was before, but they're just trying to get to 5 million units a year so they can break even on phones. they have a new android strategy which might play out for them in the enter price, but the real core of their strategy is in software and they just bought good technology trying to put together an enterprise ios and iphone story along with the an dried story they already have. john chen is an operator who understands enterprise software. i think he understands what he needs to do and the company is more stable on the cost side then a lot of people realize. it's a patient story for investors who want to stay in there. it is by no means a sure thing, but it's more complicated, less black and white than you might think. it's not as simple as it's an apple world and blackberry has to lose. it does not have to lose. >> it does seem like an apple/android world but now you have blackberry in the android world. gene, i know you don't cover blackberry, but if they're starting to make an inroad here and there, is there any sign that apple is losing any phone market share or at least the growth is slowing down to anybody, whoever it might be? >> well, i think if you asked most investors right now, they would be concerned about that, especially in the march quarter, that they would be losing market share, and that's just because one of their cycles starts to come off. so i think you're hitting at what the core issue of what's impacted apple stock more recently. i think if you look at over four quarters, apple is not losing market share. they've gained market share. they've in the past year gone from 14.7 to 16.2% based on idc numbers which might not sound like a lot about the global smartphone market but when you figure there's 1.8 billion phones sold a year it does add up. so i think i would agree with jon that blackberry can still succeed and i think what's really at the core of their strategy is this idea of encryption and security and apple is trying to do a better job of that. >> you believe there is, gene, just from a broad industry perspective room for four players and the four i'm referring to, you have the android halo, apple, microsoft doing their own thing and blackberry doing their own thing. is there room for four? >> i don't think there's room for four. i don't cover blackberry but it seems they can build a story around the security side of it, but in general apple is obviously dominating the high-end smartphone market. they have over 50% market share. this is a two-horse race and we talk to the component suppliers and they talk about samsung and android and separately as apple and i think that's probably going to be the reality over the next decade. >> just quickly, gene, your thoughts on the "60 minute" interview. i was trying to figure out why they did it. that was my initial thought was why are they doing this? >> it's probably been this the works for a long time even before all this scare about the march quarter which i think is missing the whole point but i think they do it because tim cook in general is more open to doing things where steve jobs wouldn't have done that and he's done a lot of other things like this. so it's more or less consistent with them trying to let the world know they use their products all day long, give them a little bit of a taste of what goes on behind the scenes. >> jon fortt, with he have to leave it there. we'll see you soon. gene munster, thank you very much. >> thank you. >> brian, we want to take a check on shares of solar city. we just spoke to the ceo. you can see on the chart right after the interview the stock had an immediate reaction falling as low to almost down 3%. i asked him essentially has anything changed because of the extension of the investment tax cut in terms of his growth trajectories or his targets becoming tax flow positive and he said no. we are seeing the stock react to that. more "power lunch" will be right back. you've read all of my lyrics? i can read 800 million pages per second. that's fast. my analysis shows your major themes are that time passes. and love fades. that sounds about right. i have never known love. maybe we should write a song together. i can sing. you can sing? do be bop. be bop do. do be do be do. do do do be do. do something! get on the floor! oh i'm not a security guard, i'm a security monitor. i only notify people if there is a robbery. there's a robbery. why monitor a problem if you don't fix it? that's why lifelock does more than free credit monitoring to protect you from identity theft. we not only alert you to identity threats, if you have a problem, we'll spend up to a million dollars on lawyers and experts to fix it. lifelock. join starting at $9.99 a month. start looking for a house? oh did you see that listing on zillow i sent you. you see that bathroom? did we just decide to buy house? i think so. yay! find your way home. zillow. i'm sharon epperson. the las vegas sheriff said a woman who swerved her car multiple times onto a sidewalk and struck people has been identified as 24-year-old lakeisha holloway. one person was killed and at least 30 were injured. rescue teams in syria racing to find people buried in rubble after suspected russian air strikes. emergency teams recovered victims from large piles of rubble. a russian spacecraft launching today from kazakhstan to resupply the international space station. it will deliver more than two tons of cargo to the station. it's expected to dock on wednesday. and pope francis telling vatican administrators he will press ahead with reforms. in traditional christmas greetings, the pope delivered his speech while seated because he had the flu. that's the cnbc update at this hour. back to you, brian. . >> thank you very much. oil is getting set to close. >> good afternoon to you, brian. after touching a seven-year low earlier today, the january contract of wti finished the day flat. february, which is now the front month was negative on the day. note that the spread between the february contract and brent coming in, this as the conversation about a possible lifting of the oil export ban makes wti a little bit more competitive on the global marketplace. all of this downward pressure we've seen, it is good news for consumers. we finally dropped under the $2 mark for the national average for retail gas prices. more than two-thirds of stations, brian, across the country are actually under that mark at this point. and consumers this year, they have saved more than $115 billion on gas. i don't necessarily know if they're spending it in other parts of the economy, especially in the retail sector, of course. that's a conversation we've been having, but that is the amount they've saved. it's really quite significant. >> all right. jackie deangelis. jackie, thank you very much. right now it is time for "trading nation" because traders do trade better together. let's talk about the whole broad market or at least the 500 biggest stocks. the s&p 500. our stocks set to deliver strong returns heading into year end. jonathan is a technical analyst erin gibbs with s & p advisory. jonathan i got a note from you over the weekend. you wrote this is a, quote, crucial time for the bulls. your words. why do you say that? >> well, brian, if we look at the s&p it's basically gone nowhere for 12 to 14 months but the percent of stocks above their 200-day moving average has gone from 80% down to 40%. that's not a surprise, everyone knows breadth is awful but that's why it's a crucial time for the bulls. if we go back, the percent has been below 60% for 5 1/2 months. there's less than 60% stocks above their 200-day moving average. since 1990 that streak has only gotten to six months on four occasions. one was in the '08 bear market. so basically this argument that the lagging stocks are going to start to act better and take the index higher is kind of running out of time in our view. if we get toward the six-month mark there's pretty good odds if we're not already in one, we're heading towards a bear market. so we think this is the crucial time. if the bulls are going to make a 1257nd, they have to do it in the next few weeks. >> what is the most crucial thing, one number, one point, one metric, something our viewers and listeners can hang onto and watch closely, jonathan. >> look at the percent of stocks above their 200 day. it's down around 40%. if we get back above 60%, that would be very encouraging. i don't know exactly what level the s&p would need to get that, but you're probably talking something well north of 2100. >> erin gibbs, you know in the media, we like round numbers, calderolovendar rollovers. does the calendar many anything here. >> we're all looking at earnings growth for 2016. who cares about 2015 right now. >> it's so last year. >> it's so last year. and i would say i certainly don't see any big catalyst for a bear market. i think expectations for 2016 are pretty muted. earnings and revenues are both better than we had for 2015 for expectations. about 8% earnings growth which is okay, so-so. and valuations have also come down so we came off of fairly high peaks and we're trading more sort of where we are for the average for the year. right now everything kind of looks ho-hum and certainly slightly positive. obviously there are a lot of signs that the economy is doing okay. it's sort of this goldilocks type of scenario. there's certainly catalysts that are at risk, slowing demand -- >> but you are the earnings guru. is there any sign -- actually the earnings season is almost upon us in early january. any sign fourth quarter earnings may be a little better or maybe worse than sort of the market expects? because that will move the needle. >> we've seen good retail sales, so there are signs that potentially earnings season could be better with the exception of energy, of course. >> energy has got that bigs a ter isk. erin, thank you. jonathan, appreciate it. as a reminder we do a couple more segments every day on the website at http://"trading nation." cnbc.com. >> let's bring in peter, amusement park expert and author of "america's top roller coasters." we wanted you on because of this reason. a couple years ago i took my daughter to disney and saw a bunch of princessings es walkin around and there weren't a lot of young boys. some people have said disney has got kind of a boys' problem. they need more rides and attractions to bring in the 8-year-old boys. do you think "star wars" is the thing that's going to do that and thus drive a whole new brand of attendees to the theme park approximates. >> well, absolutely. i think the theme park is going to have that new theming area, of course, and it's a 14 acre area. it's going to do extremely well because who does not love "star wars"? whether you're a boy or a girl. as you know, in '87 they added star tours and it's been an amazing ride. this time around $4 billion later, they're now actually putting in the mark which will probably be together in 2017, and like the wizarding world of harry potter at universal studios islands of adventure it will be a major draw for disney even though a quarter of anybody that goes to an amusement park in the united states goes to disney, this will be a major drawer for walt disney world as well as disneyland. >> let me back it up a bit then. i'm sure some people will disagree with what i have just said, but has disney from a theme park president-elect had a b -- perspective had a bit of a boys' problem. >> i have one girl so i'm probably not the person to answer that, but when you go to the parks the majority are girls. all the little princesses but there have been rides that have been added over the years that have been great for boys and people my age as well. different rides and attractions. the thing about disney is they theme it so it's family oriented so everyone in the family has something to do. >> my daughter we took her a couple years ago said thunder mountain was no hulk at universal. hey, quickly, peter, kind of serendipitous we have you on now. i don't know if you saw this, at sea world in orlando, florida, we're going to show live video, the sky tower, which is that huge 40-some year old tower, it goes up and down, tallest thing in florida from what i understand, is stuck again. the san diego one got stuck last year for a couple hours. we're looking at live video of rescue efforts. it's not that high up. when you see something like this, does it last in the imprint, peter? do you think people say i'm not going to go to seaworld. that a bigger problem with the "blackfish" documentary. >> it's not as big as the "blackfish" documentary. rides do break down and the industry is a fantastic industry. you only hear about incidents and accidents when something happens, kind of like an airplane crash. very rarely. they police themselves well. i know the ride. it's a staple over at seaworld. i'm sure it's some little issue, and, of course, they have the fail safe system that makes sure if the ride is broken, it can get fixed and it will stop where it is so it's safe to do that and that's part of the procedure. >> i'll tell what you, though, peter, i know you're in a windowless room at 30 rockefeller center so you can't see what our viewers are seeing, i will describe the scene quickly. the sky tower is over a lake and it looks like they're raising up a rescue cage, sort of a single metal -- kind of an iron maiden looking thing unfortunately, a metal rescue cage. i don't know if they will put the people into this cage and lower them down. we don't have control over the camera, if they panned out, you could see it. thankfully it's not that high up, but it's high enough that it's stuck that people can't climb down any kind of ladder. so, again, sort of a live rescue, nonthreatening, but live rescue situation going on at sea world where we've got an up close and personal with some sort of a rescue cage. we will keep you up to date -- maybe the dolphins can jump up and people can hop on their backs and be free. peter, thank you very much. >> thanks for having me on. i appreciate it. coming up, five big analyst calls that you need to know about to power up your portfolio. it is called "street talk." it is straight ahead. seaworld is not one of the names. backs and be free. names. first stock, ross stores. cowan and company upgrading to an outperform from a market perform. this the company we referred to earlier as being called unamazonable. they think ross is gaining share against the more traditional department stores. also note the company's favorable geography and a healthier midtier consumer probably because of lower gas. the target goes to $63 from $55, about 18% upside. >> and it does seem like this area of the retailers, brian, it's the only area really doing well. the off-price retailer. tjx, ross stores both up year-to-date as well as for the past 12 months. next stop, alphabet. pacific crest raising the price target to $850 from $820 saying it's one of its favorite ideas for 2016. taking a stab at estimating nongoogle other bets. they see losses at the lower end of the $2 billion to $5 billion range. >> it's going to be the most interesting google earnings in years. maybe not the most important but the most interesting. finally you and your "fast money" team can dig into exactly what everything else is making or losing. >> yeah. >> right? >> precisely. >> tiffany. jeffries upgrading it to a buy. they jumped the price target to $100. the analyst said they have a greater appreciation for top line and margin benefits. they see a more than 1% gain in margins coming. they like the inventory shift on tiffany and a pull back in valuation. >> although for the year, brian, it is down 30%. this is one of these stocks where a lot of people are saying, just have to turn things around a little bit, the dollar gets weaker. it hasn't worked so far so this is an interesting one to watch. next stock seen thacecese sienn upgrade. jeffries thinks it is on track to hit its 7% fiscal year '16 target. drivers, the verizon metro g rollout and new project wins with its alliance through ericsson. >> it does need help down 19% just this month. ouch. finally your under the radar name, our last stock always a smaller cap sort of lesser known company. today it's the tile shop. it is a shop that sells what? >> tile? >> you got it! piper jaffray analyst peter keith met with management. now more bullish on the tile shop. raised the price target to $20 from $18. the company is benefiting from a healthy industry backdrop, ostensibly more building as well as broader operational improvements. this is interesting. i have never heard this mentioned in an analyst note before, melissa. the analyst notes that employee turnover has slowed because they're scheduling fewer work hours. i don't know if there was an employee morale issue before but apparently the analyst liked what he heard about the fact employees were going to be given more time off. >> that's -- i have never heard that either. that's really interesting. that would catch my eye as well. we mentioned the off-price retailers doing really well in the retail space. well, it's the home improvement retailers as well, not just home depot as well as lowe's, it's tile shop with sells -- >> tile. you can say the stock has found a floor but you wouldn't say that. >> i would not say that and i'm just going to pretend i didn't hear it. thanks, brian. if europeyou were a balaire 1995 there's a strong chance you're not one anymore. >> it turns out the rich don't always get richer. more than half the billionaires in 1995 were no longer billionaires in 2014. we'll tell you how they lost it and the three secrets to staying rich coming up after the break. me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. all right. just an update on that developing story from orlando that we are following. it is at sea world. as you can see some passengers say they have been stuck in that thing it is called the sky tower, for more than an hour. sea world maintenance crews are on the case, you can see them below working diligently. sea world has released a statement, we are working closely with the orange county fire safety to remove guests with the ride, we are in constant communication with guests and team members on the ride, all passengers are safe. you can see they're waving, we're going to give you an update as it happens. a new cnbc millionaire's survey is out. we wanted to know what the holiday shopping list looked like for people with a little bit more money to spend. how much are they spending and who are they spending it on? robert frank joining us with that story. >> millionaires will be spending big again this holiday season but not much more than last year, the cnbc millionaire survey showing 81% of millionaires plan to spend about the same on holiday gifts as they did last year, 10% said they are going to spend more than 9% less. in dollar terms the largest number will spend through $1,000 and $2,500 but one in four plans to spend tleen $2500 and $5,000 and 16% planned plan to spend more than $10,000. 24% will spend more than $5,000 and the richer of the million in a irs will spend more as well. most will be buying authorize their kids and grandkids with 16% spending on their spouses panned 3% spending on their friends. not lucrative to be friends with millionaires. what are they going to spend on? the top gift, this is a practical group here, spends it on gift cards, jewelry came in number two at 50%, followed by travel, then fashion and then electronics, kind of surprising that's on the bottom. a always think of that as a big millionaire gift. >> here is $170,000 gift card for neiman marcus. you also have numbers about apparently a cast of disappearing billionaires from 20 years ago. >> we are not talking about china here, we are talking about those who have lost a comma. basically more than half of the billionaires in 1995 were no longer billionaires in 2014. now, a lot of that some of them died, but the most common effect was that their business failed or they had poor investments or they had poor governance in a family-owned company. if you look at the number, the 1,200 billionaires in 2014, only 10% of them were billionaires back in 1995. so it just shows how high the turnover is among a group which a lot of us tend to think is fairly fixed and the rich just get richer. some of them lose that extra comma. >> robert frank, thank you very much. >> speaking of losing a little bit of money, dom chu is joining us now. i was looking at chipotle mexican grill, this thing just fell out of bed. >> we do know what's going on. this is what the market is trying to sift through right now, you should know that the stock is down 3.5%, it was down 5, 6% moments ago on heavy volume. this after some headlines coming out involving the cdc saying that they have found one more ill person that has reported from the pennsylvania area since the last update regarding e. coli. it's important to note that the cdc does state that this person did not report eating at a chipotle mexican grill in the week before november 14th when the illness actually started. now, they also go on to say that they are investigating a more recent outbreak of a different -- different rare dna fingerprint of a toxic producing e. coli that is perhaps linked to chipotle but it is not known if these infections are related to the larger outbreak previously reported, five people have been identified in kansas, new hampshire and oklahoma. this is not necessarily e. coli. >> wait a minute. let me be clear. the stock -- if you look at it intraday the stock sinking 20 bucks a share. apparently somebody says they may have gotten e. coli but they did not eat at a chipotle within a week of getting the supposed e. coli. >> yes. the cdc's statement says that they are just reporting that another person has reported illness, again, in the area that matches some of the symptoms, however, this person did say that they did not eat at a chipotle. so the stock volatility may be an immediate reaction to some of these headlines, however,he cdsays the investigation still ongoing. the istock is jumping arounded n heavy volume. >> i'm willing to bet that this move that we're seeing is computer driven. someone has a sticken algorithm where the words chipotle or e. coli in the same sentence sand the stock gets sold. the words are together but apparently they are not linked. >> it appears from the -- >> jokes is on the algorithms. >> one person has been ill, from pennsylvania but did not eat at a chipotle. >> did not eat at a chipotle in the past seven days or did not eat at a chipotle period. there is a difference. you can still -- you can get the symptoms two weeks afterwards. >> this one is saying this this person did not report eating at chipotle in the week before november 14th when the illnesses from this connected outbreak have started. so that's what they're trying to say, that this person is at least reporting illness, but they had did not report eating at chipotle before this november 14th area, which is when these other cases have come about in that area. >> i mean, brian, i think that you make a great point about the algos taking control but this is a sell first ask questions wall street thing. when you have a chip that had been priced for growth and has continued to be questioned that is when you sell the stock and that's what's happening right now. >> again, okay, cmg, they're watching that. we have to say good-bye, melissa. >> "closing bell" starts of a this quick break. santa has a magic snow globe for every family. and this year, look at what he put in our driveway. the lexus december to remember sales event is here. lease the 2016 es350 for $349 a month for 36 months and we'll make your first month's payment. see your lexus dealer. hi, everybody, welcome to the "closing bell." i'm kelly evans here at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. stocks are higher, but barrel right now. we are well off the highs of the session, up 150 points on the dow in the early part of the day, then we were negative briefly, now we are trying to move higher. oil, lower oil prices keeping pressure on the energy sector once again today. coming up we will hear from one analyst who nailed this oil call earlier in the year, last august, he said this is where we

Related Keywords

New York , United States , Moscow , Moskva , Russia , Kazakhstan , Rockefeller Center , Japan , Australia , Shanghai , China , Afghanistan , Alaska , Florida , Point Cook , Victoria , California , San Diego , Syria , Brussels , Bruxelles Capitale , Belgium , Mexico , Oklahoma , Bagram , Parvan , Netherlands , Guinea , Pennsylvania , Kansas , Ireland , Orlando , Chicago , Illinois , Macao , Macau General , Macau , America , Chinese , Mexican , Dutch , Russian , Russians , American , Jim Chanos , Ralph Lauren Michael , Larry Kudlow , Bbob Iger , Erin Gibbs , Jared Bernstein , Robert Frank , John Chen , Tim Cook , Oliver Wendell , Kelly Evans , Peter Keith , Square Gee , Paul , Steve Wynn , John Buckingham , Brian Sullivan , Dan Leonard , Dominic Chu , Michael Happ , Sharon Epperson , Oliver Wendell Holmes , Santa Claus , Mandy Drury , Harrison Ford , Josef Stalin , Jackie Deangelis , George Lucas , Paul Hickey , John Laforge , Las Vegas , Chris Warren , Rosen Blatt ,