Well xblor. A weaker than expected report on manufacturing out this morning. Will this change the feds mind about the strength of the economy . Steve liesman joins us now. Were looking at a contraction here. In the Manufacturing Sector. The belief is that fed will look through this week, at least for a while in manufacturing. The reason is because it seems the result of a crash in the oil and gas industry, a strong dollar and weak overseas growth all risks the fed knew before the report. The numbers were coming in at 48. 6, a level that is contraction in manufacturing. You need 43 for it to be a contraction in the economy. It is the lowest level since 09. New orders, production is declining. Back logs in exports remain at low levels. Heres some comments from respondents that they made public. One says the down turn in china and european markets are negatively effecting our business. Another says the strong dollar is slowing our sales to china as they can buy in europe. That gentleman is in the primary metals industry. Another says, low oil prices are now the new reality. Somebody from the petroleum and Coal Products business. Many economists point out despite the tough times in manufacturing, it remains just 12 of the economy. Curiously, job growth in the ism survey did pick up in manufacturing. To the extent that its weakness comes from the oil patch and brings low prices for consumers which is a help to the economy. And other data was pretty strong. Construction spending in october topping estimates of car sales. Looks to stop 18 Million Units historically for the third month in a row. More widespread weakness in the friday jobs report, the fed will probably plow ahead with higher rates this month. Thats the consensus. Do you buy the argument that it is mostly dollar related and china related or is there Something Else going on . I think those are the proximate causes. We just have too much stuff around the world. And not enough demand. That will do it to you every time. Especially when the cost of the terms of trade is like that. Thank you. We did see big demand was in auto sales. Another big month for them. Phil lebeau, bring us the numbers. [ no audio ] Third Straight month with the sales rate above 18 million vehicles. That never happened in the u. S. Take a look at the numbers from last month. Dont get caught up on whether or not the automakers were up a few per cent or down. Toyota had the strongest performance of any of the major automakers with an increase of 12. 4 . What was driving sales last month really four things, year end promotions that everybody was rolling out. Those got a lot of traction. Not because they were sweeter deals but more the marketing and messages. You combine that with low Interest Rates and cheap gas and made a lot of people say if im going to buy, now is the time to buy. Speaking of cheap gas, suvs are red hot. Look at jeep. November sales up 20 . By the way, jeep is now on pace for record sales for any one year, more than 750,000 will be sold in the u. S. Its a different story for volkswagen. November sales plunged 24 . Its the Diesel Scandal impacting sales. There is a stop sale order on the diesel models. They cant sell those. Theyll have trouble getting any sales at all even if they boost incentives. When you take a look at shares of volkswagen, a lot of people say why isnt the stock down more . This is prime arly dominated by the story of what is happening in germany and the government there working with volkswagen to get a solution in place. Again, well get the final sales pace number within the next couple of hours. If its over 18 million, first time weve ever seen that for three straight months in the u. S. We have breaking news from turkey. There has been an explosion near a subway station. The mayor there in istanbul saying it was indeed a bomb. That explosive device was reportedly left near the station. At least five people were injured. Four months ago a pair of suicide bombings blamed on the Islamic State killed 130 people in turkey. Puerto rico saying the Government Development bank made a large Debt Service Payment today, 355 million. Were going to lay out the debt calendar for that beleaguered u. S. Territory. And lots of the debts including the gos have been called into question here. They have. Its a fluid situation. Puerto rico did dodge a second default in paying what the gdb owed to day with the puerto rican governor could prove a controversial move said hell claw back revenues that are pledged to pay certain bonds as needed to keep utilities running on the island, to Keep Services running. Puerto rico is sticking to some pretty dire rhetoric as well saying in a statement that liquidity is severely constrained and it could mushroom into a real humanitarian crisis. Its an effort to win federal assistance and creditor leniency as talks go on with bond holders, perhaps in the form of a chapter 9 bankruptcy capability or bigger claw backs from hedge funds and others that hold the puerto rican paper. The island continues to face a waterfall of obligations starting with 130 Million Department to the trustee of the electric utility in two weeks and followed by a monster 1 billion payment foifrnt of the year from major borrowers. That includes the general Obligation Bond which were considered some of the safest but have not had money set aside to pay them in recent months raising questions about whether they still are. A little more confidence. You can see the gdb bonds, the ones with the bet Service Payment are up a bit. A little bit of confidence. These are still trading at really depressed levels. Kate kelly, thank you. Wells fargo ceo john stump said tuesday he likes how the u. S. Economy is doing. Here is what he told cnbc earlier today. Economy is growing at the 2 , 2 1 2 range. Its become more regional meaning that its more industry specific. Stump also thinks the fed will move this month on rates but that the debate has become bigger than the rate. Lets take a look at the shares of wells fargo right now and see how theyre trading in what is generally a positive day. Do we have the shares . Theyre up by. 6 . Lets bring in bank analyst with rapid e capital. Good to talk you to. Lets get the economy questions out of the way. Do you agree with what mr. Stump was saying about the debate being bigger than the rate and going forward, what do you think the trajectory is and what it means for banks . Hes exactly correct in saying that its no longer whether they should raise rates or not raise rates based upon whatever indicators out there are saying. The debate is now they better raise rates or theyre not doing what they should do and, therefore, presumably theyre going to raise rates to reflect what the debate is demanding. However, what mr. Stump is also saying is dont look for further rate increases rapidly as we get into 2016. And that, of course, i think is true also. The economy i dont think is suggesting that rates should go up. And then i guess the next point would be banks dont benefit if the rates dont go up. Because im convinced that the industry has been nationalized and because its nationalized and because the resources of the industry are being directed to the government and not the private sector, it becomes very difficult for banks to show increases in earnings if you dont get rate increases. But rates but banks are making a lot of money, arent they . A lot of the big banks are making billions of dollars every quarter, quarter after quarter. Its a little hard to feel sorry for them even though they are certainly subject to more and in your view regulations than they were ten years ago. Do you think its good or bad that Companies Make profits . Thats number one. Number two, assuming you think i think its good they make profits. Im just saying that im all in favor of them making profits. I read what you have written. I see that you seem to feel as though theyre being ham strung unnecessarily and, yet, the numbers show that theyre making billions. Yeah, well, theyve been making billions for years. Think about yourself. Theres 2. 7 trillion sitting at the Federal Reserve right now. Thats 22 of the money supply of the United States. It is sitting there because the Federal Reserve told the banks they have to put it there. Lets assume that that 2. 7 trillion instead of sitting at the fed funding the u. S. Government was sitting in the hands of banks to loan to private individuals, to households and to businesses. Do you think the u. S. Economy would be growing faster or slower because the private sector had the money instead of the fed . According to the velocity of money, what were seeing is the velocity of money in the United States is declining because were putting money at the fed at virtually no return for the benefit of the government and were not giving that money to the private sector. You cant have that money because that money has got to go to the u. S. Government. Thats not positive for the United States economy. Thats not whether you like or dislike banks, thats just a fact. You dont put 22 of any nations money supply at the central bank and then give it to the government and expect the economy to rise. So if im an investor in the banks and listening to this, make it actionable for us. What does this mean in terms whether i buy, sell or hold the banks and which ones . It tells you pretty clearly if you intend to buy bank stocks, you have to have a rate increase. The government is constantly putting into effect new rules that take the profits of the banks down. As john stump mentioned in his interview this morning, hes being forced to raise Something Like 20 to 25 billion that he doesnt want that, accident need because the government decided that banks should have more Long Term Debt. Hell raise that capital. Hell raise that Long Term Debt somewhere between 5 to 6 in terms of the costs. Hell take the money and hell put it into the Federal Reserve and get 25 basis points on it and then, you know, the investor is supposed to feel that bank is safe and this is a better place to invest their money. Without a rate increase, it is going to be extraordinarily difficult for banks to show increases in their earnings because the government keeps taking the money away from them and giving it to the fed. That doesnt help you. If you hate banks as much as everybody hates them, that doesnt help you if you cant get money for mortgages, if you cant get money for businesses. On deck capital which is a Nonbank Financial Company is making loans to Small Businesses and the rates on those loans are 40 to 50 a year. At the same time, wells fargo is taking money and putting it at the fed at 25 basis points. If that isnt a screwed up financial system, i dont though what is. Thank you very much for your thoughts on the Banking Sector. Coming up, the stocks that are down so far this year that could be poised for a rebound as we head into 2016. Well get some contrarian stock picks. Plus, new york city with a new warning on salty foods at chain restaurants. Is this the government telling us what to eat, what not to eat or an important step to keep people healthy . We have a debate lined up for you. Welcome back to power lunch. Astro citizen ka is nearing the best levels up by 2 . Analysts upgrade the stock to an overweight from a prior underweight rating. The analyst there citing pro bust products in the pipeline for the coming years. The shares are a folk us in todays trade. Thank you very much. Markets in rally mode today with the dow up triple digits. We want to take a closer look at contrarian stocks that may be good bets for your portfolio. Michael vogelzang is cio of boston advisors. Where are you finding contrarian plays or are they scattered about the market . Theyre always scattered about the market. The key is to find what street consensus is and identify where it may be wrong. I was thinking about the energy play, the entire energy play is a contrarian example. One of the names we love is well, we like, is best buy. Its right in the force. What made you change . Well, look, as a contrarian investor, you better be skeptical about whatablists are telling you. You do this with your eyes wide open or dont do it at all. Best buy is right in the teeth of the whole Amazon Online retailer electronics stuff. Given the incredible cost control over the coming years and buy backs are fairly substantial magnitude, we can see Earnings Growth as long as they can, sort of hold their own. We like the valuation. We like the fact that theyre doing the right things and managing the business. They still have to execute. Another one on your list is adt. They were spun off a couple years ago from tyco. Do you think theyve got their business under control now even in the face of height ened competition . Yeah. All that thats the thing to watch. What kind of price wars happen with the Home Security industry . Whats going on with comcast and at t and verizon and all the rest that want to get into that space . Theyve done a good job of maintaining the market share. The last three years after coming out from tyco, they spent more on systems and investments in the business. Its turning into a Free Cash Flow story. Were going to be watching management very closely to make sure they dont get too big for the britches and spend that free catch flow but start to return that cash flow back to shareholders. We think, again, the sort of the attitude and pessimism around the street is pretty negative. So we think it has an opportunity there. Its a good investment and good capital moves in the case of best buy. Its cost controls that you think are going to pay off. Lets move to your third one and identify the catalyst at citizens financial. Again, theyre a spinoff from royal bank of scotland. Theyre completely independent. The peers are more expensive. What we like about them is theyre beginning to grow and increase. And that should, we believe, narrow that differential in the Banking Sector between some of cfg and the purists. Its an interesting business. We love the fact that spinoffs bring that entrepreneurial were going to win. Our parent got rid of us. Michael, thank you very much. We appreciate your time and stock picks. Thank you. All right. Lets take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial average. Up about. 6 or 100 points at 17,827. Its been an up and down day for stocks. Well tell what you is moving the markets when we come back. Plus, what does janet yellen have on the second day of fed mess . Its a new holiday that we celebrate here at cnbc. Another potential trade to make ahead of the fed meeting. It says feed me, its really the fed meeting. Well talk about that when power lunch returns. Families share data. Ireless e some way to say happy holidays. Switch to tmobile now and get up to 4 lines with up to 6gb each. Just 30 bucks a line, thats 6gb each plus unlimited video streaming with binge on™. Stream netlfix, hbo now , hulu and more without using your data. And now unwrap the Samsung Galaxy s6 for 0 upfront and just 10 bucks a month. This year tear into the holidays with tmobile. Bob dylan. To improve my language skills, ive read all of your lyrics. Youve read all of my lyrics . I can read 800 million pages per second. Thats fast. My Analysis Shows your major themes are that time passes. And love fades. That sounds about right. I have never known love. Maybe we should write a song together. I can sing. You can sing . Do be bop. Be bop do. Do be do be do. Do do do be do. It has been a strange roller coaster day for the dow. Lets get down to bob pisani of the floor of the new york stock change. What were seeing is true to season when december is a good month for stocks. Better than pretty good. Its the best month of all. Thank you. Good lead in there, mandy. We asked our friends to take a look at it. The numbers have been known for a long time. The s p 500 is up 1. 8 in december. Thats the best month of the year. Data goes back 25 years. Interestingly, its not evenly distributed. The big gainers are utilities and industrials. That surprises me. It doesnt make a lot of sense. It doesnt naturally fit. And the one sector up the least is technology. Its up. 06 . Its a good month overall for the stock market if you own the broad market. I want to show you how professional Stock Traders rotate the market. The laggers in november, the stocks that did the worst were solar stocks, Airline Stocks and metals. Guess whats the Leadership Group today . Solar stocks, Airline Stocks and metals. Exact opposite of the november performance. In other words, professional traders are buying the laggers today. Now take a look at the laggers today. Biotech, regional banks and oil service. The laggers today are biotech and regional banks and oil service. Again, theyre doing the exact opposite. So heres the group rotating around a little bit. Finally, i hope youve been listening to phil lebeau talk about the fantastic auto Sales Numbers that we havent seen in years. Talking about 18 million starts for the month. Thats a fantastic number. What we havent seen is a lot of enthusiasm in buying the auto stocks. Gm up is 3 . Toyota is down 1 . Ford is down 7 so far on the year. Mandy and tyler, theyre not terribly expensive. Seven, eight, nine times forward earnings. People are excited about the fantastic sales and amazing bargains out there. I think theyre concerned theyre pulling forward the 2016 numbers. Thank you very much. On the second day of fed mess, janet yellen sent to us, she sent us to dominick c