Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20151124

French and belgian authorities look for one of the terrorists behind that attack. A fighter jet plummeting to the ground. That happened this morning, and initially weighed heavily on the markets. The dow is up about eight points, nasdaq down about 15 points. The s p 500 basically flat, it is off 1. 1 points. One of the reasons why the dow is holding in positive territory is the impact from oil companies. Youve got wti currently up by 3 . Gold on the back of the weaker dollar is also moving higher. If we can bring up the board convince again, currently 2. 234 . We begin with the big meeting you saw just a moment ago. President Obama Holding a News Conference at the white house with the french president hollande. John harwood is live at the white house. What was the takeaways . Reporter reporter a couple key takeaways. One, they agreed there would be an increase and expansion of the scope of air strikes and intensificati intensification. Hour. President hollande said, like the United States would not be committing any large number of troops on the ground. Thats a key divides line for the president. The second thing the president said was the most important priority at the moment is deescalating the situation with russia in the way of the shoot down of that russian fighter over turkish airspace. President obama said we need to step back, it underscores the complexity of the request for nofly zones and safe zones for the refugees in syria, but there was not any imminent expression of unity of purpose with the russians. Of course, thats been difficult all along, because the russians are trying to deserve he has to go for the future of syria. This points to an ongoing problem with the russian operations, in the sense that they are operating very close to a turkish border, and they are going after moderate opposition that are supported by not only turkey, but a wide range of countries. And if russia is directing its energies towards daesh and isil, some of those conflicts or potentials for mistakes or escalation are less likely to occur. Reporter of course, what president obama was saying was that the key issue facing the United States in its diplomacy with russia is to try to get russia to move from targeting the moderate forces of opposition to targeting isis, which he has not done so far. Thats critical if their all right. It looks like we have just lost an interruption of the signal from the white house there with john harwood. So lets bring in our International Correspondent Michelle Carusocabrera for her thoughts, having watched that press conference. It concluded on the following note, michelle, from president obama that russia is a coalition of two, meaning that they are paired with iran with respect to fighting rebels in syria, and the United States has a coalition of many partners, including many others in the arab world and beyond. Your reaction to that and whatever else you saw that was particularly notable. That basically answered a question we were keg before this started. Would there be any kind of change of policy to try to get russia on board . Clearly at this point, the position from the white house and hollande is Bashar Al Assad has to do. The other highlights is this plane gets shot down today by turkey. Would it lead to some kind of escalation . And both president s used the world deescalate repeatedly. They bent over backwards to say they did not want this to grow into a bigger issue. I think that was calmling. You could see it in the markets and internationally as well. This comes even though when president obama was directly asked, do you have evidence that turkeys airspace was invaded . He would not back his ally erdog erdogan. We should point out to viewers that nearly at the same exact moment, nato commanders in brussels were telling reporters that indeed russia did invade turkeys airspace, so both president s trying hard to deescalate the situation, but back to your original question, knolls backing away from their assistance that assad has to go and russia has to get on board with their position at this point. It will be interesting to see what happens later this week, michelle, when president hollande goes over and meets with mr. Putin. Clearly weve gotten some foreshadowing of what hiss going to say. He told us hes going to tell putin we want to more toward some political pros within siree that leads for transition, that hes part of the problem, that he caused the problems in syria, so its not possible to work with him. I think that will be one of the key messages. Well have to see if we see some similar News Conference out of moss cows cow on thursday. We have a news alert in the bond market right now. Fiveyear notes are up for auction. You might remember yesterdays twoyear got a b grade from rick santelli. Whats the demand for this one . I was in a good mood today. We gave it a bminus. Clearly this dutch auction was the ultimate yield tailed a bit. So it tailed a bit. Butter a bit to cover. 2. 52, which comes to 2. 7 basically 2. 5, 56. 7 on the indirects was very close to a ten auction average. The directs like yesterday, very solid. 10. 1, that was the best direct percentage since october of 2014. Dealers take a little over 33 , so 1. 67, bminus, all thats left beside putting the turkey in the on the floor is tomorrows sevenyear. 29 million. Back to the international developments. The russian war plane was shot down by turkish jets along it is syria turkey border. There you see the approximate area where that plane went down. Here is the plane. It just went back behind that ridge line. Youll begin to see lots of smoke coming up. There it is in flight as it is hit and dives, as you will see there. Russian leader Vladimir Putin calls the downing a tab in the attack carried out by the accomplices of terrorists. Turkeys Prime Minister says his country had the right to respond when its airspace was violated despite repeated warnings, it says, putin warning that the incident will have serious repercussions, and remember, folks, turkey is a member of nato. Turkish government Officials Say the russian pilot and his navy ga navigator are still believed to be alive. Turkey also says that rebels operating near the syria turkey border took both men into customer by. It shallish Authorities Say they are working now to secure their release, but again not really clear whether either or both of those individuals survived the downing of that plane. Mand, . It is a volume tile trading session today. You have the dow holding in positive territory, the s p has also moved into positive territory margin inly the nasdaq still stuck below the lines. Those are these playing out with traders . Lets go down to the floor of the stokes, kenny polcari, its interesting the way the markets on the whole managed to gloss over the tragic events of paris and the ensuing fear. What do you feel is the mood right now in a shortened trading week . Its a bit cautious. Certainly the trend here has been a bit weaker over the last couple days, but thats kind of in contrast to what this week has always been. This week year over year has been a very positive week, and its very interesting today after weve seen this play out today on the screen that the market has now once again moved into positive territory. It feels like it wants to inch higher, but it is being very, very kar, but how much of that is due to the price of oil, which is up about 3 . I think most of it is due to oil. Every other sector is down other than the energy sector, and that makes perfect send. That being said, look at the broader s p. The broad are s p is also now moved into positive territory. So that says something about the underlying strength. You can contribute some of that to make todays make rho data, which didnt really surprise anyone. The jeer opolitical issue, there is a kneejerk reaction, but on the whole, i think most people will think, no matter the rhetoric, that this will play out and work itself out. Yeah, certainly one of the other sectors that is well supported is areas of aerospace and defense. Thank you very much, kenny polcari. Minutes ago natos chief called for calm and deescalation and says, quote, the allies stand in solid dared with turk, and another lockout in brussels, super nato is head quartered, as the manhunt continues, but Authorities Say things will mostly return to normal tomorrow, all this as the u. S. Issues a Global Travel alert. Lets go inside the lockdown now and talk with tara palmieri, a reporter from politico europe, and a former reporter in new york. You gave us a very clear description of what things were like in brussels. What has changed, if anything tonight . I think theres lockdown fatigue. We have all been sort of, you know, hiding from the perceived threat since saturday. Now people want to return to normal life. Scores have been closed, schools, subways, theyre slated to be reopened tomorrow, but on everyones mind whats the difference between monday and wednesday . They still havent caught salah abd abd abdelslam. At the end of the day, why are we safer today when theres still a terrorist on the run . Is there any news about the pursued of salah, who you described yet as a wanted man, wanted obviously by the western authorities for his involvement in the attacks in paris, but also seemingly a target of isis, because to your telling, he sort of got chicken and didnt carry through on the mission. Right. They actually found french authorities found a suicide vest near a location where his cell phone was seen. It was in a dumpster outside of paris, so theres sort of questions now if he still has the suicide vest on him, or if thats in fact his suicide vest. So he clearly gave up on his plot. But he is on the run. They still have not tracked him down. In a way, it makes the belgians seem very amateurish, because its been over a week, they still have not been able to identify where this man is, but they say hes still in brussels. Its an interesting situation to see play out, especially because were hearing that the belgians are regretting underinvesting in intelligence. Now theyre saying theyre going to invest 400 million into the budget, but it seems a little too late. Its an interesting situation. The city is so divided. Theres 19 different districts with 19 Different Police forces, and theres a rivalry between the frenchspeaking, and the dutchspeaking flems. Theres no communication, and people are just wondering, what is the difference between tomorrow and today . Are we any safer . Tara, thank you very much. Im sure well be checking back with you. Tara palmieri of politico europe. Nato is calling for calm after the russian jet was shot down, to julia chatterley also in brussels, what else is nato say . The secretarygeneral very clear as the press conference just broke up, saying they stand in solidarity with turkey. They have spoken to the turkish Prime Minister. They also spoken to the allies. They great this russian plane was in turkish airspace. At the same time he said, look, weve had concerns about russian activity and what theyve been doing near the turkish border. The focus for everyone here needs to be on the common enemy that is islamic state. So it does feel like another slap across the zawahiri for russia. They called for calm and a deescalation, but given how angry voip voip seemed todvladi seemed, clearly the question is what will this mean . Guys, back to you. Thank you very much. We will stay in touch. Mandy. As you can imagine, travel stocks are getting whacked in todays trade. With some holdsings are down by over 6 . A number of sectors facing a confluence. Dominic chu is taking a closer look. Hi there, dom. So mandy, the story behind the repercussions or reverberations of the markets are rarely simple, but well break down whats most effective by whats happening in paris all of that and mon on power lunch. Keep it right here. Other wireless carriers make families share data. Some way to say happy holidays. Switch to tmobile now and get 4 lines with up to 6gb each, and no sharing. Just 30 bucks a line at tmobile. Its gotten squarer. Over the years. Brighter. Bigger. Thinner. Even curvier. But whats next . For all binge watchers. Movie geeks. Sports freaks. X1 from xfinity will change the way you experience tv. Tiffany missing forecasts, and the is the food giant is beating on the bottom line, but revenue missing the market form hormel does expect earns to come in ahead of analyst estimates and dsw, the shoe retailer beating the estimates. Dsw blaming a challenging retail environment and unseasonably warm weather. The recent terror attacks in paris and state Department Travel warnings for americans has weighed on travel stocks, but there are a number of other big factors weighs on the sect orr these days. Dominic chu has taken a closer look. We know when there are perhaps travel repercussions to the negative, its going to play out in stocks. Just a representative stock, it travels around into other Airline Stocks as well. Of course, oil is a big part of this story as well. We know that oil is higher, that could be driving some of that weak necessary as wells. If you look as el where, like expedia, also moving again to the down side as well. Its not just there. Expedia, avis budget, more of these travel stocks overall, so of course these will all be in focus with whats happening, and of course whats happening with turkey as russia as well. Back over to you. The s p is trying to gain on to what Goldman Sachs sees a big of gain as the fed begins to hike rates. Is goldman right . Well debate that, coming up. Welcome back lets get a check on the bond market. Rick santelli is standing by at the cme. Hi, rick. Hi, tyler. Many were surprised the fiveyear didnt do gere. I wasnt surprised. Its currently trading 166. Keep in mind, for the last seven sessions we have closed between 166 and 169, 165 and 169. So this is an important range to keep in mind. One and twoday charts reveal auctions put us at the highees of the day, but it is a moderating features. Mandy, back to you. Thank you, ricky. That weaker dollar we saw a moment ago was helping gold somewhat. Jackie deangelis, tell us more. The dollar coming off its high, geopolitical tensions today supporting with those prices as well. Almost a 10 move, and the markets turned to positive territories. This is not the safe haven trade that it one used to be. Meantime, take a look at copper prices. Copper got dangerously low yesterday as well, a buy in the dip here, a waitandsee approach those how it all shakes out. Jackie, thanks very much. Its been a volatile few months, and the s p is struggling to hold on to gains for the year. There could be more of the same ahead. Goldman sachs sees pain and no gain a. The fed begins to raise Interest Rates. How should you position your portfolio . Plus the other Central Banks that may raise rates when the Federal Reserve begins liftoff. Well look and that and more as power lunch continues. Important than your health. Or the freedom to choose what doctor you want to see. 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Oh i got a job too, at zazzies. friends gasp the app where you put fruit hats on animals . I love that guys, ill be writing code that helps machines communicate. interrupting i just zazzied you. phone vibrates look at it friends giggle i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs. You name it. Im going to transform the way the world works. proudly i programmed that hat. And i can do casaba melons. Ill be helping turbines power cities. I put a turbine on a cat. friends ooh and ahh i can make hospitals run more efficiently. This isnt a competition hello, everyone. Here is your cnbc news update. Following a meeting. President obama is vowing to step up the pressure on isis. They were relendlesses in face of evil. It will be no different this time. We will win and groups like isil will lose. An international warrant. French Authorities Say the mastermind of the attacks returned to the scene that same nice, and was planning another suicide attack. There you sue the footage earlier this afternoon from the russian jet. Military Officials Say a helicopter searching for a downed fighter jet was shot down by rebels inside syria. One serviceman was killed. Its a very busy news day. Back to you, mandy. Indeed it is. Thank you very much, sue herera. Dom has a market flash. Dollar tree hitting their session eyes. Sales beat estimates. They increased by 2 . That stock is now positive for the years. Stocks have recovered most of their losses today. Goal man sax ease chief strategist david coston does not see much upside from here. The yearend is 2100, we are currently sitting at 20 art hogan and sand linking. Gentlemen, thank you very much for joining us. Art, do you agree or disagree. I have to dug gray. I think the chief manage tails is hes tax the last time and copy it is that model. And then looks forward to 16 and how close are we to reaching the inflation target. So i think the glide path will be slower. Therefore i think the chief assumption hes making is wrong. I think Something Like 130 earns, if you put the same multiple we are trading at right now, youve got closer to 2300 on the s p and not 2100. Closer to 2300. Sandy, where do you see the year end in 2016 . I think i agree mostly with what ar set, though for a different set of reasons. I think to i we they weve had sort of far valuation, and you could split heart for sure, but i think the market is starting to discrimination. I think what you see is a real shift where active management has a chance to dramatically outperform passive management and disaggregate the s p and not think of about it in an aggregate form. Right now the top 100 companies by sales growth are trouncing the rest of the market, so i think it will be a discriminating market in 2016 with opportunities as sort of the local stock by stock level. Sandy, if the market is rewarding those companies that manage to deliver or even beat on the top line, which companies in particular would you put your money into going into next year . Theres several. We just had retailer results last week, and several of them beat not only on revenue, but on samestore sales, the likes of walmart, footlocker and home depot were in that group. The stocks were rewarded. I think thats the key to look at. We have a couple in a Company Called albany molecular thats growing revenue at decent double digits and also a company like tripointe homes for the same thing. Thank you both for joining us. You can go to power lunc lunch. Cnbc. Com. Ty . Mandy, thank you very much. If the Federal Reserve raises interests, you will be there. Where else would i be . Ill be there too. Want to grab a drink . I would love that. Well celebrate. Well connect. What other Central Banks around the world so . Its going to be a little lonely out there for the fed. Weve talked to some economists, i want to show you who else might raise rates . Its a small group the fedex mexico, alaska will separately raise rates. Some of central, south america is seen raising rates. England is a big question. Were going to talk about that with our next guest. I put them in the possible hike column, and then south africa bomb one of the first to raise rates. You have saudi arabia there, the philippines as well as hong kong are possibles. These countries with their currencies pegged to the dollar, those fearing capital flight, worries about inflation when it comes from potential import prices, those who rely on import goods. But theres a whole other group of folks europe next week, we expect to have some form of easing in the form of additional quaint at a timive easing. Russia could be among them, norway, some of the countries up that way, india as well as austria, so a bit of a global rate wars some some hiking. Joining us is a guy who stands abreast of all of of this is it about right as far as you can tell . I think it is. Theres three gravitatal sources at work. These countries are going to have to rise and may rise lockstep with the fed. That opens up the door for some countries in central, eastern europe, and then you have the interesting kay of china in its own sphere and easing as well. Bruce, you said to me in a telephone call we had that you had concern about this development, that the fed would be on its own. I suppose its through the current currentry. I think theres two sources of concern her. One is the countries in the world are already seeing tightening. And with the fed tightening, with conditions not allows Central Banks, the intensity could be worse. Then i think you have the second issue of the spillover, and part of that is directly from the dollar, part would if emerging mark our hope is western europe, china with stimulus coming through provides an offset, and the net effects continue to be negative for the u. S. , but dont intense fit. How do you put that into contest . I think its part. I think generally they dont have to have sustained impact, but we do have to watch out for sentiment effects. The very good news is weve started to see november surveys come in. We saw confidence coming in below, thats sort of normal, right . Talk about gdps number, which wasnt expected what does it tell you about Fourth Quarter growth. It looks like the economy has a solid underlying demand trend here, with the consumer doing well. Being offset by a sustained net coming back to what we are saying a minute ago. That is going to be a drag, going to be a drag for the economy mountain Fourth Quarter, which we think is now tracking, and i think importantly its going to be an ongoing drag for the sector, which is a story again about emerging markets, a story about other places in the world continuing to be weighed down. We got the profit numbers this morning, they were negative. Rising wages, concerns about profitability that come from the dollar. And we just had Goldman Sachs saying theyre looking for only 2100 by the end of 2016, railroad more or less optimistic or equally cynical . Im going to leave the equity question and lone. But one in the short term were getting the rotation. Were going to see label costs rise, the dynamics all way, and i think thats a question mark about the ability of this expanse to continue to grow. Bruce, thanks for joining us today, and thanks for your help with my maps. To mandy. A russian jet shot down, nbc is reporting, what will russia do in response . Youre watching cnbc, first in big worldwide. Random . No its all about understanding patterns like the mail guy at 3 12 every day or jerry, getting dumped every third tuesday. This happens every third tuesday. We have Pattern Recognition Technology on any chart, plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. Theres no way to predict that. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Kelly Jackson Condon is an optometrist. Shes a leader of goldens shop local movement. She and the town have big plans for Small Business saturday, including a 5k race and a parade. This is more than just a town. This is our home. And Small Business saturday. Is more than just a day. Its our day. To shop small at the places we love. With the people we love. For stuff we cant get anywhere else. And food that tastes like home. Because the money we spend here. Can help keep our town growing. This saturday is Small Business saturday, lets all shop small. For the neighborhood, the town, the home we love. Shop small this saturday. Welcome back to power lunch. Take a look at campbells soup, raising its guidance. That stock is up by over 3 . Cracker barrel, however, down about 6 . The company beating profit estimates and pinnacle foods, in cash and debt. Pinnacle makes brands likes birds eye, frozen vegetables, and vlasic pickles. And its up about 8. 5 , tyler. Lets look at defense stocks. General dynamics up about we are seeing big moves, however, the main stock market indexes in both russia and turkey, both down today. 3 in moscow, and turkish nationality market, this coming after that russian jet was shot down by turkey. Vladimir putin, but turkey says the plane was in its airspace and did not responsibility to not just one warning, but repeated warnings. U. S. Officials tell nbc news it is not clear that the russian jet was over turkey, but it would crossed a slice of turkish airspace for a few seconds. The fate of the pilots is unknown turkey says the russian pilot and his navigator are believed to be alive after rebels took both men into customer by. Turkey says they are working to secure their release, so its at best a murky situation sew what is russias next move . Lets bring in michael pregent, and former adviser to general petraeus. What does this action do, if anything to the hopes for, likelihood of bringing russia to a broader coalition with some of the western powers to fight specifically against isis . Well, i think this incident today actually earned putins respect for erdogan. Putin may not like what happened today, but im sure he respects erdogan for do it. Erdogan actually went to moscow ahead of this incident and warned putin continued russian violations of turkish airspace would result in a shootdown. When candidates talk about a knowfly zone, this is exactly what it looks like when enforced. If anything, putin has gained respect for erdogan today. But back to the question does this makes the forgeling, the bringing in of russia into a broad are coalition more different . Less difficult . Not changed at all. I think we have to way to see what happens. Russia is busy defending areas in aleppo, and also hitting isis based on what happened in the sinai. Russia cant do too much right now. You cant also have a conflict with turkey at this time. I think it gives turkey leverage, gives u. S. Leverage if we use it right and gives russia leverage as well. Turkey has demonstrated it has the ability to shoot down aircraft. Russia now knows that a nato country will actually enforce a knowfly zone over their airspace. On so michael, even if you dont think russia has the will or capacity to respond militarily at this stage, russia is nonetheless the largest natural gas supplier to turkey. Is there any possibility that they could use that as leverage or as a weapon . Yes. Every leverage trigger is on the table. The one thing you mentioned, the fate of the pirates, itphoric actually works with rebels to secure the release of those pilots, theres another leverage point for turkey. Russia has options, yes. The u. S. Actually needs to back its nato ally after this incident and actually shore up erdogan and support this shooting down of this aircraft. This is what a knowfly zone looks like when its enforced. What would the leverage for russia be . Ill help fighting isiss dont should down our aircraft, and you help us work with the ground force. If putin starts punishing turkey for doing something, turkey said this aircraft vited airspace, the pilot was warned ten times to get out of that airspace, and then it was shot down. Again erdogan went to moscow to warn about this. Russia can use leverage,ual, but i dont think it benefits them. Michael, thank you very much. Michael pregent, former adviser to gen petraeus. The incidents one of several flee reasons that are worrisome, so what should you do with your money in times of turmoil and fear. Plus game changers, disruptive new technologies and inos investigations. Today we will take a quick look at artificial intelligence. Can a business have a mind . A subconscious. A knack for predicting the future. Reflexes faster than the speed of thought. Can a business have a spirit . Can a business have a soul . Can a business be. Alive . Tand thats what were doings to chat xfinity. Rself, we are challenging ourselves to improve every aspect of your experience. And this includes our commitment to being on time. Every time. Thats why if were ever late for an appointment, well credit your account 20. Its our promise to you. Were doing everything we can to give you the best experience possible. Because we should fit into your life. Not the other way around. Welcome back to power lunch. Here are this hours powerpoint stocks. Energy, materials and telecom. Exxon, chevron, are do you tyler, over to you. Power lunch series call game changers. Today artificial intelligence. It works by analyzing data and youd licing parties. Corporations are using to engineers are using to develop solutions that are better than the best human engineered, for example, the best Antenna Solutions in some cases are coming out of artificial intelligence. A. I. Is also being used in the medical field to correlate information and do things like automated heart scans. The ceo of a corporation might be able to ask an a. I. Within the next decade what are my greatest risks and get back an answer to information conclusion. The way it can do that a by using natural language search, and correlating that with internal information. Large Temperature Companies that are heavily investing, and theres also a lot of small privately Held Companies that are investing in a. I. Some of them have gone public. The investors should be looking at companies that are profitable, but investing heavily in technology and a. I. Specifically, in order to get more official. Tomorrow how one country is treating patients who suffering from Neurological Disorders with the healing power of music. That is tomorrow only on power lunch. For more game changes, go to power lunch. Cnbc. Com. If the global headlines make you nervous, maybe you want a safe place for your money right now. Coming up, well look at the megacap stocks that have weathered all the storms so far this year. Plus an increase in trade between the United States and mexico, which stocks might cars in. Our Morgan Brennan is exploring that live for us in new mexico. Morgan . Hey, tyler. Were an inland courts here on the border. In the middle of the desert. Even though its been a rough year not transports, this region has continued to boom. Weve got that story when power lunch returns. Opportunities arent always obvious. Sometimes they just drop in. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. I built my business with passion. But i keep it growing by making every dollar count. Thats why i have the spark cash card from capital one. I earn unlimited 2 cash back on everything i buy for my studio. And that unlimited 2 cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business. Thats huge for my bottom line. Whats in your wallet . Im melissa lee, coming up on power lunch, market resilience in the face of global fears. Ralph nader in hot water in an open letter he sent to janet yellen. What he said and how the chairwoman responded. If you just bought a home, you might be paying too much for your mortgage. That much and more ahead on the second hour of power lunch. Thank you very much, melissa, we look forward to. You transport that by stock and by rails. Which company is in the best position to benefit . Morgan brennan is in santa teresa, new mexico. Hi there, morgan. Reporter ahead, mandy, this is Union Pacifics new 400 million rail hub, located near the border. It has capacity for 250,000 containers like the one you see behind me. Also a refueling station for trains. A lot of the freight that come through here actually goes back and forth as trade with that country continues to heat up. So take a look at the top ten freight border crossings. There are billions being invested in these locations, as Companies Like Union Pacific double down on crossborder trade. Railroad is sort of seeing more growth. Its a big irpie in terms of more business, trying to come across the border, were also capitalizing on that growth, so we as far as putting those investments in place. Truck versus moved the lions share of that is double the 2. 8 million two decades ago. Thats why, dizzy spite a rough year to transports, you have Companies Like werner and other logistics say this is one of the their fastestgrowing businesses, but railroads are continuing to look to increase their share of the volumes. That is the reason why we have Companies Like Union Pacific making the major investments. Back over to you. You have it in your contract you must always appear with a train . Yeah, trains, hard hats, something fun and moving. I like that. Mary thompson is at the new york stock exchange. Hi, mare. The nasdaq remains under a bit of pressure, but also concerns gee owe political concerns that gripped the markets earlier today, having dissipated a bit as the day has moved on. You can see among the winner, also tiffany, this is a company with weaker than expected earns, but the company noted strong sales in japan, china and said on a constant currency, so investors likedened that news. Tyler, back to you, mandy, thank you for joining mess for this first hour. Im going to stick around. Okay. You can just go get some lunch. Ill just stay with the power. Lets send it over to melissa lee. Lets get straight to steve liesman. Thanks, melissa. In another sign that Interest Rates could be rising sometime soon, we learned from the october minutes of the discount rate meeting of the fed that 9 of 12 reserve Bank President s asked for a discount hike rate in october. It was not honored by the board of governors, but it is the most asked for a hike since june 2006 outside of a procedural vote. Its not quite the same thing. You can see its gone up piece by piece, in august five president s asked for it, september eight now in october nine. Significantly the boston fed president , long thought of as one of the doves on the commit yes was in favor of racing it. The minneapolis fed president asked for a quarter point cut on the discount rate, and chicago and new york asked for it to stay the same. Just another clue in the step about what people are thinking, melissa. Nine of the 12 bank remember president s asking for the rate hike in october. This is the emergency rate you would get if you needed funding to go to the window and loan money from the federal chair, melissa. Steve liesman, thanks for that. Not much reaction to that news, in fact investors are remaining resilient dizzy piatt turkey downing a russian war plane today. Sitting near session highs, the dow is up near 47 points. Lets bring in amhq weekend, and john jon najarian. Michelle, lets start it off with you. In terms of what has defused the situation, whats behind that in your view . I think the fact that president hollande and president obama were very clear they wanted to dpee escalate the situation. The burning question when this first happened was does this go from a conflict in syria and iraq to something much broader between russia and a member of nato, turkey. In fact turkey demanded an emergency meeting of nato. Nato put out a statement saying we dont think this leads to a fullblown crisis or escalation for the following reasons. Turkey is in no position to challenge russias military action, nato with lookically provide but theyre going to ask turkey to be far more restained in their response, and in fact that is what nato did today. Theres growing commercial relationship between turkey and rurala, says teneo plus turkey is dependent on russian gas. Dr. J, the market seem to be resilient. Not much reaction in the bond market. Yet in the oil market, that reaction is remaining intact with wti and brent each up about 3 . Youre right, mel. The initial reaction just as michelle had said was that people were worried that this might escalate. But that was quelled pretty quickly. Russia was down 3 , same with turkey and european down almost 3 on the lows. Then that turned around, as you said fairly quickly by mid session, we are positive for the dow. Now were higher by some 50, 60 points, i think the fuse got lit basically by whats going on in opecs next week, the fourth of december. We have that big opec meeting, saudi has already made comments. Ive been buying Energy Stocks for the last several days because of that, and then you get this going with the escalation because of downing of this russian jet, so that caused volume tilts, mel, to pop, but theyve come all the way back down. Now were even lower than yesterdays close on the vehicles, so that tells you people arent buying into the fact that it will escalate. Nine of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank President s asked for a discount rate hike at the last meeting. It looks like well move into a year of rising Interest Rates. Goldman sachs says flat s p next year, what do you think . It could be that way, but i dont think well get to far. I know some people have said over 1, even 1. 25. One of our guests last hout said 1. 25. So i would be surprised if we get over 0. 5. I think they drag that process out. Final quick thought . Today confirms what we have seen consistently for several years, geopolitical events ultimately not derailing the markets. Paris last week, the markets went up more than 3 , and today we see almost a full recovery off the lows. Political reaction helped out a lot. Guys, thanks very much. Lets move on and talk oil here. Wti crude trailing back up 2. 4 , but big money has been making big bearish bets on oil. Lets get to kate kelly with more. Melissa, were about a week and a half from the semiannual opec meetings, and hedge funds are not expecting much action, which means that prices are very likely to stay low. In a nod to that mentality, the f. T. Reports today that hedge fund short positions on brent crude, which of course is the benchmark global contract taileded in london are at a 13month high. What does this mean . A number of factors, giving the general bearishness, its not really a surprise. Opec members, mostly saudi arabia, have been producing crude at or near record levels this year, setting multiyear highs for supply at 32 Million Barrels per day in july, and pumping pretty close to that in the ensuing months saudi, which could afford to cut supply, doesnt want to, given its effort to and the cartels weaker members economically weaker like venezuela are reluctant to cut. Theyre 95 dependent on oil for exports. Compounding all that will be new iranian supply expected to come on the market in 2016. On the u. S. Side, despite the vast number of oil riggs, government figures show that production is higher this year than it was in 2014. This is a trend weve been seeing all year and its depressing prices, only a tiny supply decline is expected for next year. It all suggests that prices are likely to stay lower for longer as we just heard, with 40 perhaps being the new normal, and something close to that, melissa in brent. Kate kelly, lets bring in jim iuorio, and a cnbc contributor. You know, jim, kate laid out a great case for why prooss should remain low, but were seeing oil higher. Could that derail this trade . It could, combined with something else. Geopolitical risk, combined with the massive shorts, combined with the fact on december 4th theres a relatively big opec meeting. I dont think the saudis will say anything, but they did fire the smallest shot across the bow, when they said they were behind the stability. I think well see some of those shorts being covered. Longer term, however, you look at the chart of the euro it looks like death. I dont see the euro coming back up. One of the reasons the crude is so low is because of the dollar strength, and thats because mario drawingi goes from really bearish did i enmy do muchish. So short term remember a day when we couldnt sleep at night when you were short crude, because you were worried about geopolitical risk. Yeah. Its still amazing, even with the 2. 5 jump in crude prices today, jim, its a dollar move. There doesnt seem to be much risk premium in that oil, even with what is going on . Im just floored by that. You know, 2. 5 move is relatively commonplace over the last six months. It moves that in the morning. So yes, its not taking it particularly seriously. But i think if we could settle above maybe 43. 25 i know that thursday is a holiday, i think we could get the smallest amount of a short squeeze possibly, maybe gets it up to 45 bucs before the december 4th meeting. At that its game back on. We have a lot of oil and were good at getting that out of the ground, so really im more concerned about the currencies, but i think the euro probably continues to head lower. Bottom line, then resume the trend lower. Jim, thank you. Tyler . All right. Melissa, the s p 500 basically flat so far in november. One third of the stocks in the index are positive for the month, but almost a third of the is also negative, so where should investors focus their trade . Dominic chu is breaking down where the momentoum is. This move day off the low hases back to just around that flat line. We had a banner month in october, so maybe it stands to reasons things will stall, but theres been one place in the market with weve seen a lot of activity. Is the trend your friend . Some traders talk about trends being their friend. We look at stocks that are worth at least 100 million, so the ones with the most weight in the marketplace, we look for positive performance and then add it on that the stock had to be up at least 20 , so shortterm relative strength. On about nine names came out of this again, just to show you, in november, as with the year, this is where investors have been putting the money to work. Shares like mcdonalds up 2 this month, up 22 year to date. Facebook another one, a 300 billion company up 5 today, and amazon. Com, 318 billion up 120 year to date. Those are just a handful of the names again. So if you look at the full story. Theres places in the market where investors are putting money to work and pushing up gains and other places as well thats the short side where the momentum is decidedly lower. Of course, all of that, all of that part of the picture overall as we head to the last one for the year. Thank you very much,dom, and all of that and more, you can find more safety plays. Powerlunch. Cnbc. Com. Tyler heres whats on your messageu. You next, what ralph nader said to janet yellen, and what yellen fired back. If you just bought a home, congrats, youre probably paying too much for your mortgage. If youre taking to the skies, how you could make serious dough if your flight is delayed. Power lunch is right back. My name is peter tran. Im a gas service representative. Ive been with pg e nine years. As an employee of pg e you always put your best foot forward to provide reliable and safe service and be able to help the community. We always have the safety of our customers and the community in mind. My family is in oakland, my wifes family is in oakland so this is home to us. Being able to work in the community that i grew up in, customers feel like friends, neighbors and it makes it a little bit more special. Together, were building a better california. Welcome back to power lunch. Investor carl icahn disclosing a new stake in xerox. Theyre moving negatively. Dollar tree solidly in the green, though after it expected better than expected revenues, also a 2 increase in samestore sales. It is un6. 6 . And investors feasting on food stocks, hormel, campbells and tyson all hitting highs in the session. Ralph nader sent as own her to janet yellen, railing gere her low Interest Rates. He then turned things personal. Well, yellen has responded. He took it to a whole other level. Yes, he did. There were so many things remarkable and bizarre about this her, but what was even more amazing is she actually responded. In the letter yesterday she wrote back and sort of justified the policies by saying savers have certainly not been seeing gains on their interest, but overall the fed policies have helped more broadly. You dont normally hear a fed chair respond to an open letter like this, but i thought it was interesting to to note that she didnt make note of her husband. If her husband is no slouch in the economics world. I mean, one might consultly consult him. George akaloff is a nobel prize wins when they were first met, they med in the feds cafeteria. He was the leading spouse, people sort of saw him as the bigger the bigger spotlight. Over time, he is the position who gave up his position at university of california berkeley to move to washington to follow her career. So the tables have turned in terms of who is the most prominent in the relationship, but clearly both of them are very well credentialed. Who knew you could find love in the fed cafeteria. Whats your takeaway as to whether ralph naders letter was actually sexist, or at new york mag psi put it, she needed her husband to mansplain to her. As i woman, i took offense to what was in the letter. The idea she needs to consult her husband, whog not an authority on monetary policy, certain is an authority on economics, and certainly on the idea that markets are inefficient, but not an authority on monetary policy. Janet yellen has had the most experience at the fed since taking the job as chairman. She has no experience of more experience than any other fed. So he was mansplaining. Thank you ylan. Up next analysts making big calls a auto parts and more. Well just minutes away from the oil close, when power lunch returns. Welcome back to power lunch. Citing valuation. The company cut its goal, blaming the mcally problems. Barrick gold shares are down about 30 , of course gold prices on the rise ago well. Dom, thank you. Time for straight talk. First allergy again shar verb take out price. Raymond james in the below deal for it says deal aside, aller and the annual cyst says the proceeds will be used for acquisition. Its interesting and Raymond James is essentially making the bold kale for allergy again. The firm cites the companys Third Quarter results that implies about a 25 high, 25 higher over the past year. This one is a assistantout today, ty. Pallet alternate network is lifting targets. Pacific crest is among them with the price the note is come on in, the water is fine. With Revenue Growth over 68 . And the is my fathers favorite store when i was growing up. Pep boys, manny, mo and jack. Research slashing the stock. However, the analysts maintain a 15 snare price. Manny, mo as well as jack up as well. All of them doing well. The final stock here, facebook, raising the price target to 130, saying theres no reason to decrease exposure on consider the stock any bug a core holding. There are still several up as well as virtual reality. That stock has had a nice run this year. That does it for street talk today. Coming up, the big bet on being delayed. How you cash in if youre stuck on the tarmac. Final the crude close is coming up when power lunch returns. Hi watson. Annabelle, your birthday is tomorrow. Im turning seven. What did you ask for . A princess. And a pony. You like things that begin with p. I like pink frosting too. Will you have a cake . Yeah. I was too sick to have one last year. The data your doctor shared shows you are healthy. Are you a doctor . No. I help doctors identify cancer treatments. I want to be a doctor someday. I can help with that too. Watson, i like you. Reuters is reportings there is a hostage situation, several with multiple gunshot wounds in the northern french town of r e rubea. We dont know whether or not this is related to the paris attacks. An alert for travelers going overseas. It reminds people to stay ving handle and avoid crowds and mass transportation. A Police Officers is being charged in the 2014 shooting death of a black teenager. The Police Department is being ordered to release dashcam video of the incident by tomorrow. Researchers sasz kids taking stimulant medication may not be getting a good nights sleep. Analysis by the university of nebraska found kids taking the meds took longer to fall asleep and slept for shorter periods of time. Lets go back to you, melissa. Its time now for trading nation. Lets look at russian stocks larry mcdonald, good to see you. We sudden that sharp reaction, and hardly anything in the United States. You think thats going to be some sort of a catchup in tomorrows session with russian stocks . I think overall, there have been amazing resilience in russian equities this year, dramatically outperforming all of emerging markets for the most part as well as the United States. Whats interesting is credit is leading the equity. So russian credits are at the lowest level in either the last time rush credit default protection was down here. Russian equities were much higher. So i think the market is going to not take it serious headline risk in the short term. Your take here is the decline we are seeing in the rsx that tracks russian stocks here in the u. S. , thats a kneejerk reaction and there could be an opportunity here . Yes, the situation in paris, the probability of a sanction deal has risen, in other words, european countries, the cunning around the world that have had negative economic sanctions, the probability of those sanctions coming down over the next 18, 12 months has come down, so thats a positive for russian equities. With oil. Oil is down here in the low 40s. We at socgen think it would be in the 50 handle, 52ish, and thats a big positive for russian equities. Okay. Larry, were going to leave it there. We have to get to the oil close. For more trading nation, head to tradingnation. Cnbc. Com. The oil market is closed today, so lets go straight to jackie deainge his. Prices closing under 40. Geopolitical tensions certainly supporting oil prices today, maybe a little short squeezed sending these prices higher. The oil markets very nervous when we see headlines like we did this morning. Having said that, you have a dollar that potential will get stronger from here. That is what a lot of analysts think, so longer term, you could see more pressure on oil prices. Nothing has changed with the fundamental story here. We still have an oil gled on our hands, they prices will probably be stuck in the range. Thank you, jackie. The stock among a hedge fund favored. So should you consider owning it, too . Michael, good to have you. You said gillian stock is expensive . A position to buy bark shares. Thats the pipeline is appears what its about. Most of it is the helpc franchise. How concerned should we by that its not a diversified company . Ten times. I think if you take a step back. Cirrhosis and gnash, and fatty liver. So there is a pipeline growing there, and theyre going to try to diversify a way from hepatitisc. At what stage are these potential catalysts . So these drugs are in phase 2. In mid stage trials, some are in phase one. Getting to the market. I would remind investors that not only do they have a pipeline, but im sure well get to the fact they have about they can do deals. Im sure that you and our viewers know that theres plenty of dealmaking going on, and theyre how much cash do they have on hand . What deals would you like to see them do . Theyre generating about 15 billion of Free Cash Flow a year. , which is tremendous. Its going to be the biggest Balance Sheet of all large biotech. So put that in per peck tiff. I think theyll be patient. To programs, i think what theyre going to do is mid stage deals, face 2 things, and i think theyll be patient. I would like them to do some deals, diversify the pipeline like youre talking about. I think with time, with the stock trading at ten times, if youve had a one or twoyear outlook, i think people are well positioned. So you like this stock right now. How does it compare to some other . Remarkably gilead is a bit of a defensive play. People are a bit worried about merck coming in january, another hepatitisc, but we like gilead. Or other favorite ideas are celgene, bioagain, and we like vertex a lot as well. Mike, great to see you. Thank you, melissa. Millions of americans will hit the road over the thanksgiving holidays, dealing with the stress of travel, delayed flights, lost luggage. Berkshire hathaway offers a new program to insure you against most of the headaches. Straight ahead on power lunch. And now the latest from tradingnation. Cnbc. Com, and a word from our sponsor. Buy low, sell high, a basic tenet of our investing. Since markets go up im here at the Td Ameritrade trader offices. Ahh. Steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on . Let me show you. Okay. Our thinkorswim Trading Platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. Okay, cool. Hang on a second. You can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. Impressive. Whats up, tim . For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. All right. Welcome back to power lunch. Big ackman is increasing his firm ace station to 9. 9 from 5. 7 , ackman saying hes taking advantage of the slump in the stock that followed criticism of the accounting and sales practices. Cybersecurity firm pallet alternate networks, issuing a current outlook. On both of on protecting their computer systems. Citi upgrades avon to buy, high risk from neutral. It expects them to have positive news during the investor day. Sue her area has a developing story. An update on the story we told you about a short while ago. Senior officers at the National Press office confirming to nbc news basically there was a shooting incident in roubaix, on the border of france and belgium. It was a hostage situation. They feel at this point it does not appear to be terrorism receipted, but a robbery hold up. We will get more confirmation later, we hope, but nancy eng is on the ground in france and she got some it does not appear tore terror related. Ty, back to you, or melissa. Thanks, sue. Thanksgiving as you know is one of the busiest travel periods, this year passengers have to deal with a Worldwide Travel alert, but you can protect yourself from some of these headaches with travel insurance. Joining us is dean shiverly, from a subsidiary of berkshire hathaways. One of your products is air care, but what about these things like weather and terror alerts. Right, melissa. Theres two distinct products. The first, air care, is perfect for this time of year, where people are flying, but generally staying with relatives. It covers you for probably six common problems, traveled delays, missed connections, canceled flights. Tarmac delays as well. But if youre going out of the country and youre concerned about terrorism, things like that, we have a product called exact care, and then that would cover you for those kind of instances where you either have medical or you need to get evacuated out, but all of those products come with our renown assistance program. Thats really what travelers care about, having someone they can talk to to help them. How much do these products cost, dean . As a traveler, i look at the costs of my ticket, maybe 300, and pays 10 or 15 of the price of the ticket for insurance that you may never use doesnt necessarily seem like a great deal. The great question, air care is 34 for a round trip. It covers things for trip delays, like for two hours. The other frustration for travelers is in general you have to file claims and people are worried theyre not going to get their claim processed, so on. Ours will monitor for you automatically after the twohour point, will send you the deposit into your debit card. If youve given us your debit card with our mastercard integration, were able to get that payment into your account literally within seconds. You get it right at the airport. Is there a rule of thumb in terms of how much you should share insurance if your ticket costs only so much . The industry average i would say is where between 6 and 7, with a product like air care, its significantly cheaper, but or standard Leisure Travel product would be somewhere in the six to 7 , but if youre abroad with an emergency, that will be the best decision you ever made. Dean, do you feel variable pricing . Does this insurance cost more at the times of the years or at airports where the delays are more likely to occur . No. A great question, but no. The price is the price. Generally you cant purchase travel insurance before 24 hours before your flight. When you already know that something mike going wrong, but theres no difference in price if you buy for now, thanksgiving than if you buy it in march for maybe its proprietary. Dean, im sorry. Were going to have to break in. Lets go to the pentagon now where a press spokesperson is talking to reporters. The North Atlantic Council held an extraordinary meeting on this issue. I understand the nato secretarygeneral has had 134 comments in the last short while on this issue. We are still gathering details, the United States and nato support the right of turkey to defend its airspace and sovereignty, we urge turkey and russia to deescalate the situation and resolve the matter through discussion and diplomacy. I can confirm once again that u. S. Forces were not involved in this incident. With regard to the secretarys meeting with his french counterport, the secretary just concluded a very productive conversation. They are also participated in the earlier meeting at the white house between president obama and president hollande. The secretary began todays meeting by expressing his deep encondolences to the french people for the horrific attacks in paris and by reiterating our commitment to strengthen shared efforts against isil. Secretary carder and spoke one hours of the attacks and have been in frequent contact. France and the United States are now sharing information and details about operational planning against isil to the fullest extent allowed by law. Our nations are contributing to a thickening of the inclusion air campaign with sorties originating from the charles de gaulle. France was the first to join the United States in strikes in iraq. They have shown a strong commitment and helping to build the capacity of local fighters, and have been at the forefront of efforts to stem the flow of Financial Support and foreign fighters to isil. The two countries are looking at way toss further expand their cooperation. Who secretary and minister focused on for the most part france and the United States share security interests in other parts of the world. In africa, for instance, the United States has supported the French Mission to prevent the spillov spillover. Terrorism d. And france has joined the United States with reasures in response to russian aggression. The french have also agreed to lead natos very High Readiness joint task force. Secretary carter thanked france for serving as an averager for security on is several continents. Bob . Reporter on the turkish shootdown, can you confirm first of all that the russian plane did cross turkish airspace, and also secretary carters view on this event, does he see it as a reason for there to be more discussion with russians about avoiding such flects in the future . On any level . Bob, were still gathering the details. I think even the president referenced to find out exactly what happened here. I think the secretary would make the same point that the president made, that russian flights, particular in this area, which is thats peter cook, pentagon spokesperson calling on russia and turkey to deescalate the actions after that incident involving the shooting down of a russian fighter. Apparently over turkish airspace or a fighter that had passed over turkish airspace. Wile monitor that briefing and give you more news. Meantime, power lunch will be right back after this. Cme group can help you navigate risks and capture opportunities. We enable you to reach Global Markets and drive forward with broader possibilities. Cme group how the world advances. An interesting trend emerging in Silicon Valley. Vcs are pulling back funding, and here to explain is jessica, founder and editor and chief of the whats going on . How big is the pullback of vcs from these earlystage startups and why . Were seeing that the smart money, so the vcs that have performed the best over the past couple years, the percentage of funding that they represent is going down, so if you look at it, its sort of like, what do the smart people know . What is the level of that funding . Is it going from 8 of the funding to 7 . What . So its about from 7 a couple years ago to about 5 now, so not its reasonable, interesting. We dont know exactly whats going on. I think theres of questions in the market. But the people who are doing the best seem to not be investing as much. Why . What is your guess . Theres a lot of questions right now about valuations, and i think i hear increasingly from sources outside in Silicon Valley that people are waiting to see. So i think, you know, if you dont know what the ipo market is going to be like, how much google is going to come and take your company off the table for a few years from now, you know, everyones raised big funds, but i think theyre sitting and waiting. So were seeing the threshold Companies Need to reach to get that next round of fundraising go up a little bit. I think vcs are sitting out there. So were talking about a couple of Percentage Points of decline. That translates, i assume, into millions of dollars. Its not to suggest there isnt plenty of capital out there for these companies. Absolutely. And it is important this is as a percentage looking at this cohort. We know that capital is flooding in from china, from all areas of the world, but just because the funds are being raised, it doesnt mean theyre being deployed. So i think thats what were watching. Lets get one quick thought on whats going on at yahoo . Provocative story in the wall street journal today about Marissa Mayer confronting a morale problem there. This is certainly the toughest time for her in her career right now. There are two forces. I think if youre the board, who else is going to do it . Weve looked for a yahoo ceo for many, many years. I mean, this has been a revolving door. I think thats got to be on the minds. But the thing for me is shes lost the confidence of her executive team. The talent is leaving. So i think that is absolutely a big warning sign. I think she will try and get the alibaba deal out. She wants a win on the books. I think shell make that happen. But this is certainly she hasnt been in the hot seat like this before. All right, jessica. Thank you very much. Good to have you with us. Melissa . All right, tyler. Are you paying too much for your mortgage . Recent reports indicate that 94 of new home loans are in longterm fixed mortgage, and that may not be the best plan for millions of americans, including you. Well bring you the debate. Power lunch is back in two. You totaled your brand new car. Nobodys hurt, but there will still be pain. It comes when your Insurance Company says theyll only pay threequarters of what it takes to replace it. What are you supposed to do, drive threequarters of a car . Now if you had Liberty Mutual new car replacement, youd get your whole car back. I guess they dont want you driving around on three wheels. Smart. New car replacement is just one of the features that come standard with a base Liberty Mutual policy. Learn more by calling switch to Liberty Mutual and you can save up to 509. Call for a free quote today. See Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. Take a look at shares of go pro up by more than 2 . But it hit a fresh 52week low in todays session. A lot of skepticism going into the holiday quarter. Tonight on fast money at 5 00, we have the three devices that could hurt go pro in the allimportant holiday season. Again, fast money at 5 00 tonight. Tyler . All right, melissa. If you just bought a home, congratulations. You could be paying way too much for your mortgage. Diana olick is here to explain. Look, both home prices and Mortgage Rates are rising, and that makes housing less affordable. But it doesnt necessarily have to be because all mortgages are not alike. A lot of us are choosing the wrong mortgage. Just 6 of Mortgage Applications today are for adjustable rate loans. Compare that to nearly 40 in 2005, just before the height of the housing boom. This as the average rate on a fiveyear arm is a full percentage point lower than the 30year fixed. That spread will widen after the fed raises longterm rates. Ie, you get a bigger discount on the arm. Granted, theres more risk to an a. R. M. , even though you can get the rate fix for up to a decade. Given how much more mobile we are today and how much more often we tend to refinance, you have to ask if that risk isnt worth the savings. We dont just end a mortgage to move. We refi to take cash out for Home Improvements or to pay for college. We refi to pay for debt or in case of a divorce. Any so americans today are more risk averse today than ever. But todays a. R. M. S are nothing like the subprime negative am morization, no money down loans of the past. A stillcautious Banking Sector are still making sure of that. Still, its a good idea to pay down principle, but youre still likely paying less. Okay, diana. Let lets debate this and bring in two housing experts. Good to have you both. Ken, ill start off with you. Its interesting because we frame this debate really 30year versus a shorter term of 15year. Diana was talking about an a. R. M. Should that be an option at this point, ken, in your view . I think there are two things that make this decision for a household. One is how long are you going to live there . If youre going to live there more than five years, its worth some sort of fixrate manager. I think the 15year rate is actually a percentage below the 30year rate. So the 15year is probably the right option at this point. If youre going to live there less than five years, the a. R. M. Makes sense. If you think the fed is going to raise rates gradually, but theyve told us theyre going to raise them to 3. 5 by 2019, so that means the Mortgage Rate is going to be about five. Its much lower than that now. The fixedrate mortgage, on the other hand, the ford curve, tells us the market does not believe rates are going to go up very much. If kwou dont believe rates are going to go up a lot and youre going to live there a short period of time, floating rate is a good idea. If youre going to be there longer, see if you can get an assumable fixedrate mortgage. When you sell the house, someone else will pay you something extra to be able to assume that mortgage at a lower rate than it might be three or four or five years from now. Oh, thats an interesting option. Susan, weve been so spoiled on these low rates. To think about 2019 having a 5 Interest Rate on a mortgage seems so incredibly high. Thats enough to scare me away from an a. R. M. What would you recommend . Certainly 5 is not high historically, and it is absolutely likely to happen. Going the route of an a. R. M. , if youre going to be in a house for a short term, as ken was saying, is a very reasonable thing to do. If youre not certain how long youre going to be in, then taking advantage of todays extraordinarily low Interest Rates, way below 5 , by going long, is the way to go. 30year is the way of taking that bet that rates are going to go up. And a 15year is 100 basis points lower. So that also both lowercost Interest Rates and also fixed for 15 years. But i should note, that 15year is more expensive. Its about 5,000 more expensive per year on a medianpriced home. So its really which way you want to go. But any way right now is good in terms of 30year or 15year taking advantage of these low rates. And ken, we have 15 seconds, but you can always pay down principal, correct . But you could also make that extra point at the end of the year, for instance. Yes, and i think thats a good thing to do because you dont have an alternative to invest your money at a high rate any place else. Not a bad idea if you have the extra cash. Guys, great advice. Thank you both so much. Pleasure. Tyler, makes me want to refinance or something. Ive had every kind of loan you should the books. The loser loans. Now ive got a 15year fixed. The attraction there, the payment is higher, but you pay off the loan and spend less on interest. Exactly. And thatll do it, folks, for the two hours of power lunch. Closing bell starts right now. Welcome to the closing bell, everybody. Im kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. Im bill griffith. Energy is, in part, keeping the market afloat today. We have exon and chevron leading the dow components as oil rallies on those geopolitical and pfizer is a part of this rally as well. The u. N. Secretarygeneral meantime encouraging all parties to ease tensions after turkey took down a russian fighter jet. We have a former green beret to discuss what the news could mean for the u. S. C