Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20151026 : comparemela.com

than the ipad. and about 48 hours to go until cnbc hosts the next republican presidential debate live in colorado. where do the candidates stand on the legalization of marijuana? and what does the booming industry want to hear from them? we'll speak with the ceo of one of the biggest pot dispensaries in the nation. >> we do begin though with the crisis engulfing one of the biggest pharmaceutical companies around. yes, we're talking about valeant and top brass is meteding with analysts today to discuss its about practices after questions were raised by a short selling research firm. the stock recovering from big losses earlier. it's only down by half a percent. let's get more with meg terrell with the latest. >> it was really valeant's moment of truth this morning. feedback from analysts at least initially has been cautiously positive. the stock recovering from being down 14% premarket to actually briefly turning green today after the conference call, now just down a little less than 1%. the main headlines from the call, valeant ceo mike pearson saying the company portrayed in the media is not one he recognizes and he took some accountability for valeant being slow to answer some investor questions. valeant said the company and its outside council have asked the s.e.c. to investigate short seller citron research and its founder andrew left. the company also saying it confirmed the appropriateness 6 its accounting around specialty pharmacy philidor though in light of other allegations it said it will review that relationship. ever core isi saying valeant did well clarifying the issues but most investors believe the company should do away with philidor. the specialty pharmacy accounted for 6% of revenue this year and revealed it purchased a $100 million option to buy philidor for zero dollars. analysts and investors are raising questions about that disclosure. valeant reaffirmed fourth quarter and 2016 guidance saying the quarter is off to a strong start. investors are sure to worry about the overhang of multiple government investigations as well as valeant's review of its philidor relationship, tyler. >> thank you very much, meg. stocks are headed for, get this, their best month in four years. but investors could now be facing one of the most volatile weeks of the year. we've also got a big deal in the trading world. dominic chu joins us from the floor of the nyse to run down what stocks may face this week. dom? >> so, tyler, here is what we got. we got a $5.2 billion deal, and that's for the ice exchange group, intercontinental exchange, the owner of the nyse, to buy interactive data which is a privately held market data and pricing company. it's owned by private equity firms warberg pincus and silverlike. it will pay $6.3 billion in cash and $1.6 billion worth of stock in i.c.e. to this private equity owners to buy it. it will add market data, some platforms, technology platforms, for pricing, for mutual funds, for hedge funds to get all this kind of data. it also in some ways puts it in competition with big names like thompson reuters and bloomberg. that i.c.e. story a big one in the exchange world. also watching what's happening on the heels of the worse than expected home building numbers, at least the new home sales numbers coming in worse than expected adding a little bit more muddiness, if you will, to the picture for home builders. dr horton, lennar, pull at this, toll brothers, some of the biggest names in housing are taking a hit. you can see that. as you talk about the broader market overall, take a look at these sectors. retail stocks and health care stocks showing some signs in life. the best performing sector utilities and energy the laggards. the best 50 s&p companies reporting earnings throughout the course of this week and, of course, everything with sxheconc data, the gdp, the republican national debate. it's a week full of catalysts and everybody here is waiting to see what happens. the market tape shows you little action, trading volumes are muted. let's see what happens as the catalysts progress this week. >> thank you very much. let's get to seema mody for a market flash. >> take a look at nat gas down 8%. agre that's dragging down natural gas stocks. down between 2% and 3%. also some deal news coming out in the natural gas space. duke energy is buying piedmont nart gas for $4.9 billion in cash. that's $60 per share for piedmont shareholders, a 42% premium over friday's shares. that's lifting shires ares of piedmont. new calls for congress to get a deal done. plus congress making new attempts to revive the controversial export/import bank. this all comes as republican presidential hopefuls get ready for their next debate on wednesday right here on cnbc. eamon javers is live in washington. eamon? >> hi, mandy. we're just about a week ahead of the deadline now for the debt ceiling. treasury secretary jack lew with an op-ed today in usa today making the case that congress needs to act and needs to act now. here is what the treasury secretary wrote in this morning's newspaper. he said with eight days, as of monday, until treasury runs out of borrowing authority on november 3rd, some in congress are endangering this progress by once again manufacturing a crisis for our country. by waiting to the last minute to act on the debt limit, congress could cause a terrible accident. here is what we know as of right now. john boehner, who is still the speaker of the house until likely later this week, has said he would like to get this done while he is still this charge up there, and then leave paul ryan, his likely successor, with a clean slate to move forward with house conservatives. whether he can do that is an open question. it seems like he would like to and he'd like to get some concussions out of the white house. also moving now in a surprise move, the export/import bank reauthorization is now suddenly possible. why is that? procedural votes could begin as early as today in the house because a discharge petition, a rarely used maneuver, has forced the ex-im bank to the floor for votes. it's unclear what will happen in the senate but they got 218 signatures-plus on that discharge petition, excuse me, in the house of representatives and that means that it likely has some support in the house. we'll have to see where it goes in the senate and whether this means the export/import bank will be back open for business. >> thank you very much, eamon javer. just in case you didn't already know, we're just two days away from the next republican presidential debate in colorado. you can w567 atch it all live h on cnbc, 8:00 p.m. eastern, coverage begins at 5:00 p.m., the pregame. >> mandy, shares of apple are under pressure at this hour as you see down about 3%. the tech giant begins this week shipping its tv set top box device. how big a deal is it? it may be even more important than the ipad. julia boorstin is here to explain the stakes. hi, julia. >> hi, tyler. that's right. well, the new and improved apple tv is available for preorder starting today. the 32 gigabyte version goes for $149 while the 64 gig model sells for $199 with orders shipping by the end of the week. it includes an app store just for that tv as well as a touch remote. while the apple tv itself is not expected to of a huge impact on apple's bottom line, piper jaffray's gene muncer projects it will add 1%. viewing content through internet connected devices jumped 60% in the last year but apple tv's popularity is lagging. it's in third place. that research firm says roku are the most used at 37% followed by google chrome cast at 19%. apple tv has just 17% share followed by amazon fire tv with 14% share. now we'll have to see if amazon's move to stop selling apple tv, which takes effect this week, impacts sales during this crucial holiday shopping season and, of course, we'll get a sense of the latest sales numbers for all of apple's products tomorrow when the company reports its quarterly results after the bell. >> a big upset in argentina's presidential election, and it could have major ramifications for bondholders. kate kelly has been digging into it. >> tyler, some investors in argentina's distress bonds are over the moon about the surprise strong showing of the most conservative of the presidential candidates. bench mark bonds tied to argentina were surging this morning reflecting hopes that his willingness to overturn current policies might be allayed. one key issue, whether he would negotiate a settlement with the so-called holdout creditors plug a powerful hedge fund who have demanded full payment of months. daniel cioli was expected to take a bigger lead but macri proved the polls wrong delivering over 34% of the vote. that means that for the first time ever arjgentina will hold runoff election to determine the final winner. meantime, some investors believe argentine politics are so complex they can't assume anything in terms of a settlement with bondholders here. while others say macri's interest in resolving the impasse is definitely there. >> but either way we have to wait until the 22nd or later to find the final result here. >> we sure do. it's interesting, the polls were dead wrong. we've had this happen in the u.s., too. we were expecting a stronger victory for scioli. if he had gotten 40%, he could have avoided the runoff. but he fell somewhat shy. >> thank you very much, mandy. valeant pharmaceutical just turning positive this hour but still down about 35% in the past week. is top management doing enough to address the pharma giant's business practices? plus, a bullish forecast about the holiday shopping season ahead. you're watching cnbc, and we're only 59 days away until christmas, folks. get out there, get shopping. first in business worldwide. in panama, which is a city of roughly 2 million people, we are having 5,000 new cars being sold every month. this is a very big problem for us with respect to fast and efficient transportation. it's kind of a losing proposition to keep going this way. we are trying to tackle the problem with several different modes. one of them is the brand new metro. we had a modest forecast: 110,000 passengers per day in the first line. we are already over 200,000. our collaboration with citi has been very important from the very beginning. citi was our biggest supporter and our only private bank. we are not only being efficient in the way we are moving people now, we are also more amicable to the environment. people have more time for the family and it's been one of the most rewarding experiences to hear people saying: "the metro has really changed my life." i'm a gas service my nrepresentative. n. i've been with pg&e nine years. as an employee of pg&e you always put your best foot forward to provide reliable and safe service and be able to help the community. we always have the safety of our customers and the community in mind. my family is in oakland, my wife's family is in oakland so this is home to us. being able to work in the community that i grew up in, customers feel like friends, neighbors and it makes it a little bit more special. together, we're building a better california. welcome back to "power lunch." japanese tiremaker bridgestone is buying auto repair shane pep boys for $835 million. the deal boosts bridgestone's retail network in the united states by more than a third, but you can see pep boys big winner as well up by 23%. xerox shares are down by nearly 2% after the company said it is not considering a sale of itself. xerox said it is only reviewing its businesses and capital allocations. the company reported its first quarterly net loss since the first quarter of 2010. let's get to dominic chu for a quick market flash. it's actually me, mandy. steel stocks are under pressure as bank of america cut its steel price estimates saying it's going lower for longer. the firm downgrading ak steel to under perform from a prior neutral rating. this less than two months after cutting the stock to neutral from buy. that stock at session lows down nearly 12%. u.s. steel, by the way, also trading lower down 6%. ty? >> all right, seema, thank you. can you believe it, there's only 59 days to go until christmas, and today is bullish sign for the crucial holiday shopping season. morgan brennan joins us now with the details. hi, morgan. >> fed ex is racing for another peak holiday season fueled by e-commerce. and the number two delivery company is predicting it will ship 317 million packages between black friday and christmas eve. they're expecting volume spikes on cyber monday and the first two mondays in december when it anticipates moving double its average daily volume. the company is also planning to sort ground segment packages seven days a week and reiterating its plans to hire upwards of 55,000 seasonal workers. chris weatherby says the strategy has been to plan capacity for more packages while he expects to hear u.p.s. is constraining its own capacity to drive greater profitability. meaning a potential gain in market share so help fuel fed ex's strong forecast. we'll get more tomorrow when in addition to reporting earnings u.p.s. will be unveiling its own holiday season forecast. >> thank you very much. valeant pharmaceuticals under the microscope going on the defensive now calling for the s.e.c. to investigate the short selling firm, i think that's going on the offensive, that alleged valeant was creating fake invoices after an investor conference call this morning. clients were left at ease, but have still more unanswered questions for the company. steve odland, cnbc contributor and ceo of the committee for economic development joins us now. steve, of course, with a long history as ceo of multiple companies and big ones. steve, welcome. good to have you with us. what does valeant's executive team need to do to reassure their investors that the numbers are legit? >> well, they came out this morning, and the board reassured the investment community that based on what they know now, everything is done correctly, but they used some weasel words in there, and they said based on what we've seen so far, meaning the preliminary investigation, and so the reason the stock is treading water and hasn't really bounced back is because of that out that they left themselves. so i think the issue is one of trust at this point. they need to now go through the complete investigation. they're using outside counsel, of course, and they've got an independent board member committee. they need to go through that, but they need to be really blunt and clear and transparent with the investment community and with the public about what's going on, what they're finding, and then take quick action as they go forward. >> what do you think of their tit for tat strategy of asking the s.e.c. to investigate citron. >> citron is a short trader and he's acknowledged he's short the stock and then puts this research out, and, you know, it's not fully substantiated. on the other hand, he's done it before and he's been right. so who knows exactly whether this is right or wrong, but they have said -- the company has said they've looked at it and this this mail order pharmacy house is legitimate and that they're not counting the revenue until the scrips go directly to the patient. so that is the correct revenue recognition. so, you know, look, i think valeant has done itself a disservice early on by buying companies and jacking up the prices so they're not popular among the government and the community and that got them on the wrong foot. there's a lot of history here of ill will. the board needs to settle this thing down. they need to be more transparent. they need to be on a course that's more shareholder and consumer friendly. >> let's furturn, if we might, the debate on wednesday evening with the gop candidates. if you were sitting there on the panel asking questions of the candidates, what would you ask and what do you think the most important economic topic is to elicit earns from these candidates? >> well, you know, i think so far in the two debates what we've seen is we've seen a lot of name calling and, you know, we've seen a lot of ploy for ratings, but we haven't heard a lot of talk about policy, and, you know, one of the critical issues that most ceos are concerned about are the outrageous debt levels. we're nearing $18.5 trillion to $19 trillion in debt, and so the policies that are in place will soon take us to 100% of debt to gdp. meaning our debt will be the size of our total economy. we've got to change those policies. so i think most rational business people want to know what policies would each of these candidates employ in their administration to get a control of the debt. i think also they want to hear more on policy related to health care and education and some of these other issues. so policy is the critical nature here, and i hope we can get beyond some of the name-calling and some of the grandstanding and get to basic policy issues. >> steve, thank you very much. steve odland, we'll be seeing you later in the week i'm sure. don't forget cnbc hosts the next republican presidential debate. it is in colorado october 28th, just two short days from now. it is the same day as the fed meeting, so you like economics, you like finance, you be here. you like politics, you be here. >> we won't let anyone forget, are we, ty? >> no. >> new health care premiums for obamacare being revealed. how much they're going up by. as as we head out, take a look at some of the most widely held stocks. apple currently down by 3%. taking a bite out of apple ahead of earnings tomorrow. do stay with us here on "power lunch." well, right now you can get 15 gigs for the price of 10. that's 5 extra gigs for the same price. so five more gigs for the same price? yea, allow me to demonstrate. you like that pretzel? yea. 50% more data for the same price. i like this metaphor. oh, it's even better with funnel cakes. but very sticky. get 15 gigs for the price of 10. and now get $300 credit for every line you switch. now at at&t awe believe active management can protect capital long term. active management can tap global insights. active management can seek to outperform. that's the power of active management. why pause a spontaneous moment to take a pill? or stop to find a bathroom? cialis for daily use, is approved to treat both erectile dysfunction and the urinary symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently, day or night. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. welcome back to "power lunch." mobile banking on the rise and today ceos and leaders are gathering in las vegas to discuss the future of payments. mary thompson is there live with a cnbc exclusive. hi, mary. >> hey there, tyler. we're here with the ceo of western union who, western union being a giant in the global transfer business, but you have an important announcement you made today. you introduced a new product called wu connect which enables your clients to send money via digital and mobile platforms. >> here we go again. western union again introduces a new innovation. we did that for 165 years. this innovation i'm very excited about that, mary, because this new innovation opens our platform to new customer segments, mobile phone owners, social media. the social media customers want to do more than just communicating with each other. they want to transfer money to their loved ones and we are able to do that for these kind of clients. >> some people would say this is a direct response to facebook's payment system. would you say yes? >> i won't say yes because we have the confidence to move money cross border and cross currency in 200 countries and 130 currencies. we can really do the compliance part in a way that many companies can't do. we're offering our platform to the social media, not only social media, also banks, all the others who have that kind of relation and using our platform. >> what's the price and how profitable do you think it will snb. >> i think it's a long-term investigate. you start with making agreements. i think it's always connecting the customers, understanding their needs, how much money they want to send. if you look at our products we're very much -- i think they're very affordable. >> so you won't give us in he details on the pricing yet. let's talk about that because your company has come under criticism not only from people here at money 2020 where they're looking to disrupt the financial industry but also from regulators increasingly saying your platform is way too expense. what is your response? >> if you look at our product. it's not expensive. the sender faces the fee and the receiver picks up the money immediately. we wouldn't be so success sful the customers wouldn't pay for the price. the customers are happy to send money from las vegas where we are. >> the world bank says we need to be more aggressive. how far further do you think technology will enable you to cuss cost approximates. >> technology helps a lot also in the settlement part, on the connection on the customer side and the data. data is the big thing. analyzing the data is where technology is making it more customer-friendly. the customer experience being faster. it's enormous important. that will make it more convenient and better. >> thank you so much for joining us today. we appreciate it. we've been speaking the ceo of western union. mandy, back to you. >> thank you very much for that, mary thompson. let's get to seema mody for a market flash. >> tyson foods, the stock is on a steady decline today near session lows down over 5% as jpmorgan downgraded the stock to neutral from a prior overweight rating. the analyst warns of limited near-term upside due to negative data on protein pointing out that tyson continues to lose market share in its key packaged meat categories. the stock down 5.4%. >> thank you very much, seema. gold prices are getting ready to close. let's look at the numbers. we've had a three-day losing streak. but today we are marginally higher sitting up by 4 bucks at $1,167. as for silver, copper, palladium, and platinum, we have a mixed picture with palladium and platinum moving lower. silver and copper sitting higher. it's about 48 hours to go until cnbc hosts the next republican presidential debate. it's live in colorado. so where do the candidates stand on the legalization of marijuana? and what does the booming industry want to hear from them? we're going to be speaking with the ceo of one of the biggest pot dispensaries coming up. also, new health care premiums for obamacare being unveiled today. how much are they going up by? stick around to find out. so what's your news? i got a job! i'll be programming at ge. oh i got a job too, at zazzies. (friends gasp) the app where you put fruit hats on animals? i love that! guys, i'll be writing code that helps machines communicate. (interrupting) i just zazzied you. (phone vibrates) look at it! (friends giggle) i can do dogs, hamsters, guinea pigs... you name it. i'm going to transform the way the world works. (proudly) i programmed that hat. and i can do casaba melons. i'll be helping turbines power cities. i put a turbine on a cat. (friends ooh and ahh) i can make hospitals run more efficiently... this isn't a competition! hello, ken jennings. i haven't seen you since that tv quiz show. hello, watson. you can see now? i can recognize people, analyze images and watch movies. well i wrote a few books, did a speaking tour, i... i've been helping people plan for retirement. and i help doctors identify cancer treatments. is that all? i recently learned japanese... yeah, i was being sarcastic. i haven't learned sarcasm yet. i can help with that. hello, everyone. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update for this hour. just moments ago u.s. congressional negotiators apparently close to a deal on a two-year budget pack. lawmakers are pushing to finalize that sweeping deal to fund the federal budget before speaker john boehner leaves congress and that's at the end of the week. the negotiations are aimed at resolving the thorniest issue awaiting the speaker to be, which is paul ryan. he's set to be elected later this week. the american academy of pediatrics urging lawmakers to raise the legal age to buy cigarettes to 21. that also includes electronic cigarettes and it's also recommending increased restrictions on flavored tobacco products which may be especially appealing to kids. dramatic video showing a crane bending in half under pressure from strong winds in tell aviv. it crashed close to a busy highway. luckily, nobody was injured. israeli media reporting wind speeds of more than 60 miles per hour. and a golfer in south africa had an unfortunate lie that turned into a painful looking shot. the golfer was up against a tree in the first round of a tournament when his shot ricochets off the tree. he shot a triple boeing g.i. seven off the hole which may have been pretty good under the circumstances. poor guy. ty, back to you. >> that will raise your handicap or damage your putter, one of the two. >> i would say damage your putter is probably a little more likely. >> sue, mandy, help us here. >> are you wincing? and i'm not even a guy. stocks are steady, lots of things on tap. big week. let's get to the floor of the new york stock exchange. qui quite a pro golfer himself, dominic chu. >> i don't know about that. but when we played that clip you heard a few groans from our crew at the nyse. i am a golfer and i can't even imagine what's happening over there right now. let's talk about the way the market is setting up right now because we are having a fairly uneventful day if you look at the tape. however, you got to keep in mind that this is all ahead of a huge, what could be a massive week of catalysts both on the company-specific earnings side of things. remember 150-plus companies in the s&p 500 reporting their numbers, including the world's biggest, apple, tomorrow, and then you have lighter volume today because there's all of this jockeying for position, this waiting, if you will, for what's going to happen. the calendar is also deep as well. you have durable good orders, a advanced reading. gdp late they are week and all of that framed around what's going to happen with the fed interest rate meeting and what their decision will be. a lot of pros say it's 90 plus percent priced in there will not be an interest rate increase. a sector to keep an eye on for sure, energy, specifically shares of exxon and chevron because those two oil giants will be reporting their earnings at the end of the week. now, retail stocks and health care among the leaders there. if you look at apple, chevron, exxon, cisco systems, some of these dow stocks, they are at least on the lagging side of things. we'll wait and see how at least three of those stocks play out on earnings story late they are week. back over to you. >> thank you very much. let's go uptown to nasdaq. posted a huge gain on friday. what's going on today? morgan brennan is there. >> so the nasdaq has been not moving quite as much as we saw on friday. it's been largely flat, although it's modestly higher right now up nine points to 5041. alphabet, microsoft, amazon, some of the biggest winners here again today. those are really continuing to ride higher on this better than expected earnings we saw last week. in light of that, keep an eye on the large cap nasdaq 100. it is about 1.75% from its all-time high of 4816 which happened back in march of 2000. but there is one notable big cap laggard here today and that is apple. that is down 3% ahead of earnings after the bell tomorrow. now, that's happening on concerns of slowing smartphone growth which may also be a reason why we're seeing such a sell-off in the chipmaker following a strong run-up there last week. the philadelphia semi-conductor index is falling more than 1.5%. skyworks solutions, avago technologies, micron among the biggest losers. pay pall is is up 3%. also biotech stocks are soaring today. the nasdaq biotech index is up more than 1%. back over to you. >> thank you very much for that, morgan brennan. a very big week for the market with earnings and the fed. what will drive stocks higher or lower as the case may be? joining us scott clemens, chief investment strategist at brown brothers and stephen wising from citi private bank. scott, you know, the three averages, i know it doesn't feel like it because it's been very incremental day by day, but the three averages are on pace for the best monthly percentage gain in four years. does it worry you the leadership has been quite narrow and there's some important aspects of the market like the small caps that have been underperforming? >> we have to put the rally of the past couple weeks into the context of the year that's been characterized as i have said to my clients as three yards up the middle and a cloud of dust. if you look at where we are today versus the beginning of the year, we're on either side of zero with a lot of dust and market volatility in between. i'm more worried about the strength of earnings and the ability of earnings to drive things forward. we're in the middle of a big week. >> talking of data, let's talk fed, steve. do you feel -- the market is basically saying there is going to be no rate hike this week but i'm wondering with all the dovish rhetoric out of the ecb, with the pboc rate cut, more easing from theb oj this week, is it possible if global stock markets come down on the back of all that accommodation it might make the fed move sooner rather than later? >> sure, in the sense that the certainty threshold that the fed has had is very unclear. they put in place a clear road map for where they would be on domestic monetary policy if not for the uncertainties abroad and some of this has diminished. you have to look at some of the domestic data we've had. august and september employment reports have been biased down through time. i don't think that they will make a leap of faith though and say that the fourth quarter will strengthen as i would expect it will. so 139,000 on average for the last two employment reports, perhaps a lark with the new home sales down 11% for the month, i don't think they're going to hit their threshold and move to tighten at this meeting. >> not at this meeting, then when, steve? >> it seems more likely next year, though you can really obviously say here that who knows when. i don't think federal reserve policymakers have themselves determined when they would move. obviously they can't solve everything with a zero funds rate. a lot has happened here. 60% decline in oil. emerging markets crisis, with the federal funds rate unchanged at zero. what you mentioned at the beginning with the rest of the world moving to protect the recovery that we do have. the ecb, very likely the bank of japan, all of these incremental steps will help. >> talking about the rest of the world, let's go to the corner of the world we call emerging. scott, you like emerging markets with the exception of russia. >> we do. it's hard to paint the emerging world with that broad of a brush but we're in the seventh year of a economic cycle, seventh year of a bull market in this country. valuations have gotten stretched. this is not a bubble. on our valuation measures were at 19 times trailing earnings on the s&p 500. that's pretty lofty. where we are finding more compelling valuations is in emerging markets and that shouldn't be a surprise. emerging markets have been down five-year trailing numbers are actually in the red for emerging markets. some of that is the dollar strength but not all of it. we're finding a better trade off of compelling valuations and growth in emerging markets than we are in the states although we still have allocations around the world. >> scott and steve and good to talk to you at the beginning of this big week. thank you very much for your time and you can go to powerlunch.cnbc.com to see steven's outlook for japan. that is powerlunch.cnbc.com. ty? >> mandy, the new prices for the 2016 obamacare exchanges, the health care exchanges, now available. rates are going up in some parts of the country but more so in others. with more details on the 2016 signup season, here is dan mangin. tell us what the premium story is. what's the variables? >> window shopping on health ca care gov started yesterday. they can start enrolling next week. >> let me guess they're not going down. >> no. overall they're definitely not going down, but how much they're going up depends greatly on where you live and what happened in the past year in terms of enrollment in terms of utilization by those people of health benefits. some states like minnesota are seeing double digit increases. other states like california, which has its own exchange, the average increases are somewhere in the ballpark of just under 2%. >> what determines how much the prices go up. are there controls or caps on how much they can be raised? >> some states have active controls. you will see states where individual insurers asked for large increases and those will be dialed back a bit. if a plan last year saw higher than expected use and higher than expected expenses, they're going to try to make it up this year and also try to boost enrollment as well. >> is the system working? >> the system -- the website is working much better than it was going back to 2013. dramatic difference here, they made some improvements that should be visible to most users starting today and more improvements coming down the line and a lot of those improvements, the key improvements are to encourage reenrollment and keep the new customers as paying customers -- >> final question, what happens if i don't get health coverage next year? >> you're seeing a pretty significant increase in the penalty going up to $695 per adult or the higher of $695 or 2.5% of your taxable income. >> that's the penalty you will pay. >> it can be significant in some cases. multiply 2.5% of your income by how many people in your household. >> sure. dan, thank you very much. >> to the bond market we go. rick santelli tracking the action at the cme. >> hi, tyler. as i look at the board, i see 206 for 10s. i see 140 for 5s, which is pretty much what i saw around 8:30 eastern. but what we are really looking at on a fed week is just generally where rates are by country and the notion of how many negative rates are so pervasive especially across europe. if you look at a 1-year of our 2s, you can see 63 basis points. look at a 1-year of the eurozone 2s and you see minus 32.5 basis points orb the swiss. you see minus 82 and that isn't anywhere near its biggest negative. if we look towards spanish yields, they're playing in and out. they're playing kind of hide and seek with zero as they can't decide whether to stay a little negative or a little positive. and all this, of course, maybe being driven by mario draghi which drives the last chart. that's a chart the last time the euro versus the dollar was here. it was around august. many have complained on a multinational corporate front about the strong dollar and for the most part it's in a range, but we are definitely visiting the top end of the dollar range, very important area to pay attention to. mandy, back to you. >> we're paying attention. thank you very much, ricky. way tonight bring your attention what is happening with oil prices. we're down by 1.4% and we have dropped below $44 a barrel. why is this important? wti has, believe it or not, closed between $44 and $50 a barrel every day since the 27th of august. so today could be the day that we break that streak but it has been a relatively narrow range so we'll keep on watching all the way to 2:30 p.m. during the next hour of "power lunch" with mr. brian sullivan. that's when the oil close occurs. okay, guys. just in case you haven't already caught it, the next big republican presidential debate is two days away on cnbc. we're live from colorado, one of only two states where marijuana is legal for recreational use. we'll be talking with the man who runs one of the biggest dispensaries in the state. plus, we want to hear from you. what do you want to hear from the candidates? you can tell us on facebook or twitter and here is what author and cnbc contributor walter isaacson would ask. >> do you think technology in the form of automation, robotics, machine learning, is going to destroy american jobs or increase american jobs? 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(announcer) at scottrade, we share your passion for trading. that's why we give you the edge, with innovative charting and trading features, plus, powerful mobile apps so you're always connected, wherever you are. because at scottrade, our passion is to power yours. welcome badge ck to "power lunch." the next republican debate happens in colorado this wednesday. colorado was the first state to legalize recreational use of marijuana. norton runs the largest dispensary in colorado and is an outspoken advocate for marijuana. welcome to "power lunch." we're glad to have you with us. the republican candidates are kind of all over the place. many of them defend colorado's and state's rights to legalize. what would you like to ask the candidates if you were there in the room on wednesday? >> well, tyler, you're absolutely right. the republican candidates really fall in three major camps. those that support medical marijuana but not recreational, those that really want the federal government's prohibition laws enforced, and those that really have a state's rights sort of mentality. we would hope that the state's rights narrative stays consistent and they allow the states to move forward with their regulatory programs. >> donald trump is clearly in the no camp. he thinks it's a bad idea. so does mr. carson, the two front-runners there. mr. carson says he considers it a gateway drug. >> sure. donald trump is a pragmatist, if he's anything. i think after he looks at what has actually happened in colorado, the fact that, you know, last year we collected close to $90 million in taxes between license fees and the actual tax on the product itself. ben carson is a physician. one would hope that he would look at the academic literature and really see how medical marijuana is helping thousands and thousands of people throughout the country. >> norton, how many jobs has the industry created in colorado? if you're a candidate standing up there and trying to get elected, the first thing you want to say is i'm going to give you a job. >> you're absolutely right. the economic ripple effect of these regulatory programs is huge. in colorado we have over 10,000 people that work in the core business, not to mention the i.t., the security, the builders, the contractors, the landlords. this is a multibillion dollar industry. in fact, you know, $3 billion in legal marijuana were sold last year and by 2018 that number is expected to grow to $8 billion to $10 billion. >> thank you very much for being with us. we appreciate it. >> thank you. have a nice day. along with marijuana colorado's craft brewing business is also putting billions into the state's economy. tomorrow on "power lunch," we'll meet with the ceo and founder of denver's hottest beer manufacturing sleeping giant craft brewing. i hope they bring a lot some tries as well. you will hear more from the gop candidates this wednesday night on the cnbc debate at 5:00 p.m. eastern. do not miss it. >> and let's go down to eamon javers with a developing story out of washington. >> hi, tyler. congressional aides tell nbc news that congress and the white house may be getting close to an overall budget deal that would set spending levels over the next two years and also raise the nation's debt ceiling ahead of that november 3rd deadline that is coming up next week. it's not clear yet what the parameters of this deal that appears to be emerging may be, but it may be that we'll see an announcement as early as today or tomorrow. all of this has been in train because speaker of the house john boehner has said he'd like to get an overall deal done before he departs as speaker of the house. that election is scheduled for thursday. it's expected paul ryan, the republican, will take over as speaker of the house at the end of this week. the room for a deal here is very, very narrow. now, over at the white house, white house press secretary josh earnest is speaking right now to reporters. he was asked about these reports and he said that in this type of a negotiation nothing is final until everything is agreed to, and he said at this moment not everything has been agreed to. so the white house clearly not prepared yet to say that they have a deal but congressional aides telling nbc news that they are getting close to a deal. tyler, we'll keep an eye on this. >> i'm sure we'll be seeing more of you. thank you very much, eamon javers. shares of valeant down 40% over the last month. the company defending itself today. coming up, we'll talk to a valeant shareholder who made a big move on valeant stock today. and take a guess at our mystery chart for today. there it is. the stock hitting a new all-time high, and it's not one we normally talk about. we'll have the answer coming up on "power lunch." here at td ameritrade, they're always working. yup, we're constantly making thinkorswim better. like a custom screener on your desktop, that updates to all your devices. and you can share it with one click. wow. how do you find the time to do all this? 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"power" is back in two. you wouldn't take medicine without checking the side effects. hey honey. huh. the good news is my hypertension is gone. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck. i'm brian sullivan. coming up on a big monday show, forget oil, there's another huge commodityi that is crashing. the upside, your utility bills at home may go lower. plus, it won't beat the iphone but we'll tell what you new apple product some are saying is more important than the ipad. and it's just 48 hours so we want you to tell us, will the fed raise rates this week? we have a live vote on the way. it's coming up in a few minutes. back to you, tyler. >> i know how i'd vote. it's one of the world's largest online marketplaces for selling tickets to sports and concerts. got any mets tickets? i'm talking about stub hub. 1200 employees working to connect fans with their favorite artists and sports teams. we took our cameras inside stub hub's san francisco headquarters. >> hey there. i'm anne, the head of hr at stub hub in downtown san francisco and i will show you the coolest office in the city. hey, melody. this is the 2014 san francisco giants world series ring. because they're such a great partner, we get one of their rings. this is our center stage. every week we give away tickets to various games. i myself got to give away four tickets to the world series last year and it was totally awesome. there's four floors here at stub hub and each floor has a different sort of designation. all of our conference rooms are named after sports stadiums. this is oak ballpark. my favorite is rose bowl. this is our head of business development, jeff lester's desk, but he's out tonight so let's snoop around. bobble heads, school stuff. he used to work for nascar. all sorts of fun paraphernalia from different events he's been to. now i'll take you to our forensics lab. oh, yeah, my badge doesn't even work it's so secret. they are on watch day and night to make sure that our fans are safe and that their tickets are protected. this is the stub hub design war room. it's the one place in the whole building where i can always find a beer. cheers. welcome to the game floor. we have foosball, ping-pong, we purposely left this floor open so it gives our employees an opportunity to come and connect with each other. on all of the walls we have actual quotes from our customers just to remind us why we're here. i love this one from dustin. >> somebody out there is a big virginia tech fan like the host of the next hour. >> go hokies, brian. >> i love it. we stink but i still love it. thank you very much. it's 2:00 on wall street, 11:00 a.m. in eugene, oregon. the dow down fractionally. oil slides below $44 a barrel but the big story right now is natural gas. it's taking a huge tumble. i'm brian sullivan, sara eisen is with us from the nasdaq. welcome, sara. we begin with that sharp move lower and something that probably determines your utility bill at home, natural gas. it is tanking. it is down almost 10%. it is now trading at its lowest levels in more than three years. let's get right now to jackie d. at the nymex with more and why. >> good afternoon to you. a very staggering move lower in nat gas prices. we hit $2.06 today. that's the lowest since april of 2012. we haven't seen 2 bucks since 2002. so everybody is watching that level as a key level to go under. as you mentioned, down roughly 10% on the day but the month and three-month charts interesting as well. 20% and 25% moves lower respectively. what's taking it down? this is a supply/demand story. abundant supplies building up and i'm not al roker but we follow the weather forecast when we look at the nat gas trade and especially on the east coast, temps are pretty mild for this time of year. that's where the demand fall is coming from. we are going to get some data on wednesday. the traders look at tote yol stocks. we're expecting to see the eia is saying we're going to hit new records. they're looking to see about 3.9 trillion cubic feet as a record in november. some analysts are even predicting more than that in the last quarter, maybe 4 trillion cubic feet. these prices could continue to do lower from here, brian. >> jackie d., thank you very much. well, that move that jackie just told you about is slamming some very widely owned stocks. companies that are big into natural gas. look at these moves in exxon, chesapeake energy, devon energy, anadarko petroleum. devon down more than 4%. but chesapeake getting hit hard, down nearly 8%. let's stick with the energy and nat gas space. duke energy acquiring piedmont natural gas. that's a deal valued at $4.9 billion in cash. who might be next? will we see more consolidation to come in the energy space? let us bring in david burke, senior vp and senior analyst. he's at hilliard lyons. do you think this deal portends other deals to come or is this kind of a one-off strategic fit? >> well, it really could, brian, because this marks the second acquisition that we've seen in the past three months. in august southern company announced an acquisition of agl resources for over $12 billion, and agl is the largest natural gas distribution company in the country so, yes, this is the second in three months. there could be others potentially. >> you know, when you look out at your coverage universe, david, it's a who's who of nat gas and oil companies. i see nat gas just a hairline above 2 bucks a btu. are there companies that are going to get really, really hurt by this? they're down today but what's the long-term impact? >> well, my focus is more on the electric utilities and from their perspective they're interested in the gas companies because the natural gas companies are growing at a faster rate than the electrics. the average local natural gas distribution company is growing their earnings by 6% to 8% rate. the average electric ois only growing 4% to 6% rate. >> does this work for them then? because i know at home and that's why i led the show off saying, well, maybe you're utility bills will go down because i want people to understand the direct correlation. is this a net positive for the utility companies or do they kind of net the same because they have to lower their rates as their input costs go down? >> we think it's a positive strategically and home for rate payers longer term because it allows the companies to become more efficient, but it also allows the companies to adopt a more regulated utility model. and that's a trend that we have seen the last couple years with utilities are embracing the regulated utility model and that not only reduces risk about it strengthens balance sheets and provides more consistent earnings cash flows. >> all right, david, it was a pleasure to have you on the program. thank you. >> thank you. brian, we also got word today that new home sales during the month of september fell 11.5%. that's sending the home builder stock lower. we have a home builder analyst with deutsche bank. with a number like this, do we have to worry that the housing recovery is off track? it was going so well. >> no, i don't think so. if you look at the new home sales numbers, they have been quite volatile. they had run a little hotter than most people expected so you're seeing a reversal of some of that. they're still up 18% year-to-date year-over-year. that's ahead of where starts are 11%. builder orders are also around 15% or 16%, so our view is that the housing recovery is still on track. >> and you expect that to benefit the home builders? you see this just as a pause in what has been a strong rally? the group is up i think 7% for the year. >> that's right. the builders are up more than the market, 7% versus roughly flat for the market. but investors are still very skeptical about housing recovery. so it's been grudging gains. it's been concentrated mostly in the larger cap names because that's where the familiarity and the liquidity is, but we expect as the housing recovery continues, we expect investors to gain more confidence and build up small caps as well. >> we also learned today, sam zell is unloading $4.5 billion worth of apartment buildings. does it say anything about where we are in the cycle? he's had a history of calling it and timing it pretty well. >> the multifamily sector is let's say in the ninth inning or so of this recovery. on the single-family side, there is still a ways to go. if we just take single-family starts back to what most people consider normalized, that's about 50% to 60% upside still from here. i don't think anyone will argue we're anywhere close to that on the multi-family side. >> give us some strategies. which builders do you like at these levels? would you stick with the builders that focus on the lower price point or time to switch the strategy? >> well, i would focus on the builders that are smaller cap. those are the ones that have been neglected amidst all the investor skepticism. names like taylor morrison, tripoint and cal atlantic from a merger of two smaller ones. >> thank you for joining us. bottom li brian, a sharp drop in the northeast. i don't know if you saw that? >> because it's expensive and cold and crowded here. >> makes sense. >> everything that happens this week is also going to be colored by what happens on wednesday because that is the second to last fed decision on rates this year. and with china's chaos calming down a bit, well, could this be the meeting we see the first interest rate increase by the federal reserve in nine years? all right, america, we want to hear from you. so we ask a very simple question -- will the fed raise rates on wednesday? it's a hard vote. you have two choices, yes or no. go to cnbc.com/vote to cast your vote right now. we're going to tally them live. let's bring in joe lavorgna and steve liesman. i isn't the voting isn't that populated right now -- there we go. 22% yes. really fluctuating. what say you, sir? >> i'm going to go against my better judgment and reveal results of our cnbc fed survey for tomorrow. >> you have to give a yes or no. >> i will tell you what the 41 respondents say ahead of time. usually releases tomorrow. i will say it quietly because it's not authorized for publication yet. 95% say no rate hike this week. >> that's only 5% that say yes. that's not a lot. >> look what's happening here. 92%. >> maybe the only people voting are your survey people. >> our people at home are as smart as these geniuses that response to our survey. >> some of the geniuses have been wrong over the years. yes or no, the fed raises rates. >> it's like that scene with jim carrey and lauren -- i forget her last name where he snas dumb and dumber, would you go out with me and she says 1 in a million and he says, so i got a chance. that's the probability. >> i think the meeting to talk about is december and what if any clues we'll get this week about that meeting. it's interesting that the fed funds futures market where investors can actually price in what they're expecting shows less than a 40% chance that the fed raises in december, yet all we hear from the key fed members is that they want to raise before the end of the year. >> so a couple things. first of all, i think this meeting they're going to maybe try to get back a little flexibility on december. i think there's a sense that they were perhaps a little bit too pessimistic in the september statement and the september press conference. and then maybe a little more upbeat on the economy, especially when it comes to domestic demand. as we know, we're headed towards a 1.7% third quarter but a lot of that is consumer spending and other elements of the economy especially housing, by the way, have done reasonably well in the third quarter. so i think they're going to try to claw back at least that flexibility. december remains a live option if we get two jobs reports and they're both healthy. >> you know, joe, china was such a big part of the focus really global is what the fed said ahead of the last meeting and everybody thought, well, maybe we'll get a rate hike. then china semi imploded. china has announced stimulus of its own. it's kind of calmed down over there. is the fed running out of excuses? >> no. look at the september statement. steve is right, they wanted to buy flexibility but they're going to mark down the growth outlook. they have to. gdp is a one handle and, yes, it's an inventories and next exports but you can't talk about the economy growing moderately when you're under 2%. secondly, they can't couch the job market as showing solid gain. that statement has to be dovish and it will preclude them from september and i'd argue the probability of 40% is even lower than that and if i'm right a wednesday's statement is dovish, it will fall lower. >> i think it's 35%. >> i argue when they don't move, it will go down. >> joe, hold on. >> and the markets, to your point about china, the reason the equity markets rallied and the vix and volatility have come off is because the market has pushed the timing of the fed out. the minute the market thinks the fed is going to tighten, we'll get all that stuff in september back in the fold. >> joe's number would be quite different if we print who jobs report in the 180,000 to 200,000 range. that's going to change everything on a dime. >> i disagree. >> joe has given me an idea. the probability is so low on wednesday and falling in december the next live poll is shu "power lunch" do any more segments about the fed until they do something? because we're talking about it for nine years. >> investors are obsessed with it. >> we think they're -- i don't know anybody obsessed with it. we talk about it because that's what -- >> it's a central banks world, brian. >> row hangiare you hanging out people obsessed with the fed? you need new friends. >> i'll e-mail you my extension. you can go fishing. >> joe and steve, thank you very much. time now to lock in our vote. wow. >> no, that's crazy. >> are you calling our audience cra crazy? >> 54% think the fed is going to raise rates on wednesday. >> yes, 46% say they won't. 2% are undecided. >> i only do what i do. >> steve liesman, thank you very much. just a reminder that fed's day -- i think i just combined wednesday and fed decision into one word. happy fed's day. that's on "power lunch" at 2:00 eastern time. that's just the day getting started. then we have the next gop presidential debate from colorado. that is also right here on cnbc. coverage begins 5:00 eastern. wow, wednesday is going to be a fed's day. larry elson dissing who of his biggest competitors. and this product has been on the market for years but some analysts calling the next big thing for apple this. plus one valeant investor, guess what, selling everything after hearing what he heard this morning. he will tell us why ahead. and we have a mystery chart today in honor of sara. the stock is sitting at an all-time high and it has something to do, sara, with your hometown. the queen city. we're going to give you the answer when "power lunch" returns. welcome back to "power lunch." i'm sara eisen. watching shares of valeant pharmaceutical lower right now. down more than 4%. the stock has been bouncing around all day. the company holding a key conference call with investors this morning following the 30% plunge last week. let's bring in meg terrell who is here with me at the nasdaq with more. i have been reading analyst reaction. sort of mixed. >> yeah, it is sort of mixed. they kind of came out saying they did a good job addressing the specific criticisms about the accounting and the relationship with the specialty pharmacy philidor. however, there are broader concerns here. so let's just review some of the main points from the call. the company started out addressing the shareholder report and saying their outside counsel has requested that the s.e.c. investigate citron research. the board also came out strongly reiterating its unanimous support for ceo mike pearson. they confirmed the appropriateness of philidor's accounting and given other allegations about philidor's business, they will review that relationship. philidor putting out a statement today saying it welcomes this review and will help in any way it can. that's kind of interesting. the stock has bounced around even though analysts and investors seem to think they did a good job addressing the specific criticisms. there are still several overhangs to the stock. first, what's going to happen as an outcome of this review of the philidor relationship? are they going to unwind completely? some analysts saying that's what investors want. several government inquiries as well. >> i think it's interesting to watch the stock today. it was higher, it's lower. wouldn't it be higher if they inspired some confidence on the call? >> they inspired some confidence on the call but still people saying it's maybe a long road out of this uncertain period. >> there's so much noise. it has been so controversial. >> and people wondering when the next short seller shoe is going to drop. >> it's interesting they put so much credibility in citron research, investors that is. >> you have to wonder whether they're putting that credibility in citron or there are these doubts and uncertainty about the way valeant operates and people wondering if we didn't know this, what else don't we any? >> good point. meg terrell, thanks very much. >> let's get some answers to your questions, guys, about why the stock is down. peter anderson is cio of congress wealth management. we had him on last week to talk about valvaleant, but as i understand as a result of this conference call this morning, you sold all your valeant shares, how come? >> first, let's tell you the good news. i think they did an excellent job on the conference call. it was an excellent demonstration in corporate governance. i give them an "a" on that. so you might be wondering why i sold the stock. >> yes, exactly. >> well, they answered a lot of questions, but the one outstanding issue is that special subcommittee, the ad hoc committee, and what they're going to be finding over the next, i don't know what the period is, days, weeks, months. we weren't really given any sense of closure about how long that inquiry would take, and that to me is enough to say, well, the uncertainty now -- we gave them a chance to answer all the questions that we had, and they came forward and did as best they could, but there is still several unanswered questions and as a portfolio manager, you have to manage that or weigh that risk. and to me the risk now is too much to hold, especially given the sense that we don't know how long the jury is out, so to speak, and what the answer will come back to us as. >> valeant is turning into congress. they can't solve a problem so they start a new committee, right? this is a company that had four or five days to prepare for a call that the entire investing world was watching, and a long time and big owner such as yourself came away confused. what does that tell you about the company's management? >> well, it tells you a couple things. first off, you know, some of the major shareholders, excellent reputations, right? and as i said, the members of the board of directors very, very reputable. there were even a moment of lightness when they said that they had joked that they had been up all night for the past two or three days. so to your point, exactly. if they've been spending that amount of time, and who wouldn't on that board, right, in crisis mode, why wouldn't they cocould with a better bullet point answer than this is one of the issues the ad hoc committee is looking into? even if they gave a time frame for that, i still wouldn't be a buyer. i still would be selling, but at least it would give you a sense of how long this is going to go on. >> would you -- would you go back to valeant as a stockholder or has she broken your heart too much? there's no more relationship? >> well, i'll tell new. this is our plan, right? we're on the sidelines now. i think from -- let's not talk about the stock but the business itself, it's an excellently run business with these caveats aside, all right? so staying on the sidelines, watching how this thing plays out, and perhaps it does come back with a reasonably good answer, then i certainly would entertain getting back in the stock. it will not be the same company it was when i bought the stock two years ago, right? it will have changed, but perhaps it will be more of a value company. you just don't know, but at this point for clients i just think it would be imprudent to be holding the stock. we buy stocks with the intention of them to go up. now we don't know what that horizon is for the potential for this to go up. it's more of a horizontal move right now. >> and, peter, i want to give you credit as we good-bye for coming on the program because you were bullish last week. you said i didn't hear what i had to hear. you don't feel comfortable with it. you're not hiding under a desk like so many people would. we do appreciate you coming on. thank you so much, peter andersen. we'll see you soon. >> sara. >> green mountain giving a big jolt in the coffee trade. and another look at the mystery chart. this stock is hitting new highs in today's session. need another hint? think chile over spaghetti and the country's best ice cream. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ welcome back, everybody. i'm brian sullivan. thanks for joining us. comcast is simplifying its stock structure. it is combining both the current classes of stock into one class of common stock. the board has approved the move. now it's up to the shareholders. intercontinental exchange announcing plans to buy interactive data corp for $5.2 billion. idcurrently owned by warburg pincus and silver lake. and green mountain, planning to import beans through import free sites. tell me why this is an unprecedented move. you say it's a big deal. >> it's not a big deal kneesly for keurig green mountain. it speaks to some of the challenges they have had. it willing an uphill battle for them to turn it around. take a look at the stock prits over the last few years. this year alone they have lost more than 60% of value after running up to become one of the best performers in the s&p 500 just last year. this company has two major problems. number one, the pod sales that it gets a lot of money from actually are declining and the brewer sales last quarter declined 26%. it's betting a lot, brian, on turning things around on its new hot machine and it's brand new cold machine which launched at the end of september. whether consumer are going to actually by the cold machine and make their own sodas, big question. they're cutting costs, saving money. it's a clever maneuver but we're talking millions of dollars. they spend billions of dollars when it comes to innovation. >> when we say duty-free it's not like they're going to be selling the k-cups next to the cigarettes and the jugs of cologne in an airport. this is a special tax exemption set up by the u.s. congress where they can move -- they're moving i guess their buying operations to switzerland from the headquarters in vermont. to your point save a couple million bucks. it seems odd. >> they did that move last year to switch the coffee to switzerland. they're setting up a free trade zone. it's an interesting tax move. what you may see from here, brian, is that other coffee companies will follow keurig's lead. they are the biggest coffee company. it's bigger when it comes to buying coffee and selling coffee than, say, starbucks and jm smuckers. look for others to follow the lead. the bigger picture is that keurig green mountain is having a tough time. obviously investors weren't that impre impressed. the stock is down another almost 3%. >> yeah, it didn't help. up next, one analyst said go ahead and leave home without it. the big sell call on a major credit card stock. "street talk" is on deck. but first, your crude close right after this. hello, everybody. i'm sue herera and here is your cnbc news update at this hour. nbc news reporting negotiators are close to agreeing on proposals to raise washington's borrowing authority and fund government programs over the next two years. higher spending on military and domestic programs would be offset with savings elsewhere. pakistan says it will not be issuing any appeals for international help in the aftermath of today's deadly quake. officials say they have the resources for rescue and relief work. at least 147 people died in pakistan and another 33 in afghanistan from the 7.5 magnitude quake. a makeshift memorial is growing at the site where four spectators lost their lives as dozens more were hurt. a woman plowed her car into a crowd watching oklahoma state's homecoming parade. she's facing second-degree murder charges for that incident. and a dog treat recall due to potential salmonella contamination has been expanded. the recall involves good n fun beef hide chicken sticks in 2.8 ounce bags. it includes expiration dates from february 2018 through july 2018. check those bags. all right. that's it. you're up to date. back to you, brian. >> rifling through my daughter's lunch bag as we speak. >> you're feeding her good n fun chicken strips. >> we share everything in the sullivan household. >> they're dog treats. >> they're good though. juster joking. i love my dogs. nat gas is turn thoog maing major story. >> nat gas closing at session lows, a near 10% move lower. supply/demand story here. abundant supplies, demand coming down because temperatures are not as severe as they have been at this time of the year. also seeing 1% slide in crude oil prices. significant today because we closed under the $44 mark. we've actually traded between $44 and $50 every day since late august. so it appears that we're sort of breaking out to the downside of this range. back to you. >> all right, jackie. thank you very much. time now for "street talk." every day we're plucking out analyst recommendations on stocks that you need to know about or at least we think you do. first stock up, american express. ubs cutting it to a sell. they cut the price target to $67 from $81. folks, that's about 10% less than am ex's current price. three reasons but the main one is a survey of costco customers showing a bigger impact at the end of that partnership than previously projected. they think am ex could lose 8% of their customers. >> the question is, is it already priced in the stock down 20% this far this year? one of the worst performers and has been signing deals with sam's club and other ri taetail. ubs actually upgraded costco to a buy. the analyst saying costco will benefit from the switch from am ex to visa. also upping the price target on that stock to $180. costco shares are up nicely. >> you hear merchants sometimes complain about higher costs. number three, pay pal. added to the conviction buy list. recent trends with the store and pay pal's braintree product that apparently are solid enough for the upgrade. they also believe guidance may be conservative. you know what that means. maybe a lower end beat. their earnings are out october 28th, fed day, gop debate day. their target on pay pal is $45. stock at $36. 9 bucks of upside is seen. >> and up 3% today. we have sea trip, one of china's largest online travel agencies. it's teaming up with rival kun ar kayman islands. the stock is up 23%. buy rating from goldman sachs and a price target of 94 bucks. baidu will now own 25% of ctrip. >> the last stock is always the smaller cap under the radar name, and today it is home away. you may be familiar with it. it's a vacation home rental company. cowan and company upgrading home away to an jut perform. they say home away's core market is beach and ski competition. airbnb is not a competitive threat. they say two bucks a share of eps. target ho target boosted to 40 it's from $34. >> maybe it's not a competitive threat because they're in the same market and both of their competitors are established hotels. homeaway have half of what airbnb have in terms of reported users. >> wrapping up "street talk" on a monday. ding, all done. thank you. now to our other daily segment, "trading nation." trying to help you make smarter investment decisions and today we trade the nasdaq 100 on a pure numbers basis closing in on its tech bubble all-time high which is always fun to say rich ross. erin gibbs with the s & p investment advisory. rich, let's chart the qqq. very widely owned etf. how significant is this level? how does the chart look? >> never one to underestimate the power of a prior all-time high. in this case comes around that big round number at the 5,000 level which always holds some psychological appeal. but clearly technology has been leading this market higher and there was nothing in last week's blowout earnings to suggest that it won't continue to lead us higher. however, i think we need to go backwards before we go forward. i think we could see a 4% to 5% pull back here. look at the resistance at the all-time high. you can see we have that nice decisive breakout from that ascending triangle but we're into resistance at the $114 level. i think we get a pull back, retest the level. apple out after the close tomorrow. semis up 29%. uniquely poised for a pull back. i think we go backwards to go forwards but ultimately we take out the old high. >> erin, do you think tech stocks will keep leading us? >> actually, my view is very similar to richard ross. when you look at valuations, for the past two years the nasdaq 100 has traded in a really tight range between 17.5 to 19.5 times earnings and we're at 19.5. so certainly the price is really going to be held back by unless we see some big earnings beats over the earnings season. now, earnings growth rates are a whopping 70% for the next 12 months for an index that's very large for a broad market index. so i certainly see longer term i expect it to continue to go up. but when we're trading at such peak valuations, it can be very vulnerable and we can easily see a short-term pull back. >> maybe short-term pull back but longer term technically at least according to rich ross. not rick ross, that would be an interesting interview also, but this is rich ross. for more information head to "trading nation." cnbc.com. >> the buffalo bills taking on the jacksonville jaguars yesterday from london. i was there. not at the game but in london. it was actually the first time the bills played a game in the uk and it was the first time an nfl game was live streamed globally. so did it bring in the viewers? we've got the numbers for you fresh when "power lunch" returns. ♪ ♪ (singing) you wouldn't haul a load without checking your clearance. so why would you invest without checking brokercheck? check your broker with brokercheck. today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to cloud platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. that's why over 90% of the top 25 global pharmaceutical companies are turning to cognizant. our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way clinical research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing patient engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. our population's growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients: to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. ♪ welcome back to "power lunch." i'm julia boorstin with the viewer numbers for yahoo!'s first ever live streamed nfl game. reporting 15.2 million unique viewers. that's less than the 17.6 million that thursday night football draws on average but more than the monday night football average of 13.5 million viewers. now, yahoo!'s viewers watched a total of 460 million total minutes. that calculates out to 2.4 million viewers a minute on average. far less than the millions that tune in for an average national football league game but more than a double that a game like this would normally draw in a regional broadcast. now, perhaps most important for the future of live streaming football, the 5 million-plus international viewers, about a third of the total number of viewers. that means we can expect the nfl and other leagues to look to cash in on international demand for their games by selling it more digital streaming rights to the smaller games because their larger games have all those rights locked up about for the next five years. guys, back over to you. >> all right, julia. thank you very much. in technology the cloud is becoming everything, and not just for smaller startups. database giant oracle crediting cloud computing with much of their recent growth, and its brash billionaire founder larry ellison taking some potshots at competitors. john fort is live at the open world convention. >> the cloud is causing oracle headaches as well as some growth prospects and larry ellison took some shots at some old foes when it comes to the cloud. take a listen. >> our two biggest competitors, the two companies we watched most closely over the last two decades have been ibm and sap and we no longer pay any attention to either one of them. >> and it's interesting he kind of bashed those but also elevated amazon, microsoft, work date, and sales force. this morning i sat down exclusively with oracle's ceo talking about the competition. he said oracle plans to compete at every layer of the cloud, platform, infrastructure, applications, public cloud, all of it. he said he's not sure whether dell is going to help make emc more relevant. he outright said oracle is not interested in buying hp's enterprise business and far as amazon goes, amazon took some shots at oracle's database business at its conference earlier in the month. i asked mark whether he thought amazon could really do damage to oracle with its database. take a listen. >> every year there is somebody with a great idea on how they're going to change the database business, and, frankly, the amount of innovation and the amount of r & d, the amount of depth of features is a very, very tough business. >> he straight out is saying amazon can't do it. of course, amazon is not going to take that laying down. we have quite a battle brewing into 2016 over the cloud. amazon continues to think it can take share away from oracle. oracle saying that's not mopping. >> jon, thank you very much. the new apple tv is available for preorder and tim cook set some pretty high expectations for the product. but this is a product that's been around for a couple years, so will this new version really change the tv game for apple? let's bring in andy har graves of pacific crest securities. a lot of people don't realize the apple tv has been out. this one has voice search, some other features. is it going to move the needle? >> no. not for apple it won't. and i'm sure it will sell a lot of units this christmas and people will go out and buy them but i don't think it moves the needle for apple, yeah, not right now. >> why not? >> well, there's no service associated with it. what people want to do on television is watch tv for the most part, and voice search is nice but you can get that on a lot of other boxes. the stuff they've added in terms of apps i'm sure will expand the amount of games available. that's not what people really want. they just want to sit down and, you know, watch a football game or something, and until you can get them that in a better package, i don't think it moves. >> i was poking around on the website today and i tweeted it out because they also if you buy the tv, they offer you this $50 option for a hand held video game controlling that kind of looks like the ps4 or the xbox. they're making it clear maybe this is not a tv product. is it possible this is really a video game product disguised as a tv product? >> i don't think so. just because the compute power you need to really compete at the high level of video games isn't going to be there. it's certainly a video game product from a casual standpoint and i think they're trying to promote that aspect of it and help developers make more money on more different platforms, but i'd be shocked if we saw this develop into a full-on console. >> for investors, it's tricky to hear these announcements, sandy, and to understand what to make of them. going into -- we have earns out of apple tomorrow. when will the tv or apple music or apple pay even matter when it comes to earnings? >> if iphone profits go away i guess. you know, as long as iphone is what it is, those things are going to be ancillary from a profit perspective and won't be super meaningful. they're nice to have. they keep people sort of in the ecosystem. they expand the brand halo a little bit but in terms of actual profit, i don't think they're going to matter anytime real soon. >> all right. andy, thanks very much. with apple shares down more than 3% today. last look for you at today's mystery chart. this stock is hitting an all-time high. it's associated with my hometown. here is a final hint. it's up more than 240% over the last 20 years. it's a name we don't talk about very much. you're all tweeting at me. you're all wrong. this is a totally under the radar name. we'll give you the answer when "power lunch" comes right back. , but what if you could see more of what you wanted to know? with fidelity's new active trader pro investing platform, the information that's important to you is all in one place, so finding more insight is easier. it's your idea powered by active trader pro. another way fidelity gives you a more powerful investing experience. call our specialists today to get up and running. we heard you got a job as a developer!!!!! its official, i work for ge!! what? wow... yeah! okay... guys, i'll be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. oh! sorry, i was trying to put it away... got it on the cake. so you're going to work on a train? not on a train...on "trains"! you're not gonna develop stuff anymore? no i am... do you know what ge is? all right. welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. time to reveal our mystery chart done in part on sara eisen's behalf. the stock is hitting an all time high, associate with the air is a's hometown which makes us think of chili poured over spag getty. the stock up over 240% over the past years. it's city financial, sinf. apparently one of our producers ratted it out but did you know it ahead of time? >> i did not. i saw cincinnati company i thought kroger and a lot of folks on twitter that i that as well. cincinnati financial is not one we talk about. it goes back to 1950. four agents started is in cincinnati, ohio. they have a big portfolio in equities, so they have really benefited more than other insurance companies from 6 1/2, 7 year bull market, only got hit in the financial crisis -- >> other than to say they are not actually based in cincinnati. >> yes, they are. >> no, they are in fairfield. >> that's -- it's a county in cincinnati. >> it's an hour north. >> it's in the vicinity. >> if you said stanford, connecticut that was inglewood cliffs, new jersey. we did that for you, sara. >> thanks for having me. >> the next republican presidential debate is this wednesday right here on cnbc. so we decided to take a look at the public perception heading into the debate, what people think of the candidates, what they're hoping to hear, what they need to do to win which is get more votes than the other guy. >> the data is interesting. we know trump and carson are leading the polls but what's interesting is the data showing how the public expects them to do better in the next debate and rise even more in the next polls. for example, take trump, there are 6% more people who expect him to win the debate than actually currently support him. that includes undecideds. look at carson and carly fiorina. they expect them to do well in the debate as well. it says a lot about their campaigns when their opponents' backers are admit to go see them pop after wednesday. not surprisingly if you look at the other end of the spectrum, jeb bush, he is dead last. of all the ten main candidates he has the worst gap in expectations. not even his own supporters expect him to do well coming up after wednesday. brian, a lot of this relates to how george w. bush did in his past debates, he had low expectations and did well, as we see with company earnings if you have too high of an expectation as trump does does that set up up to fail in the polls. >> maybe it benefits bush. low baller >> right now what's interesting to see -- if he fails on a low bar he is in real trouble. >> we have a big night on wednesday. the debate coverage starts at 5:00 p.m. eastern time. before that, sara, is your favorite topic, the federal reserve, they have a decision as well. >> yeah, my favorite topic and many others and an important one as well, brian. thank you very much. >> good news, if you've ever needed a hand sewn personalized cat sweater by tomorrow, we will explain what that means when "power lunch" comes right back. what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place that lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim? for all the confidence you need. td ameritrade. you got this. technology empowers us it pushes us to go further. special olympics has almost five million athletes in 170 countries. the microsoft cloud allows us to immediately be able to access information, wherever we are. information for an athlete's medical care, or information to track their personal best. with microsoft cloud, we save millions of man hours, and that's time that we can invest in our athletes and changing the world. with the holiday season rapidly approaching handmade and vintage goods retailer etsy is launching same day delivery service in new york. courty reagan and kate rogers is here with me on this story. courtney, same day delivery. as consumer shifts more purchases on line, getting shoppers purchases quickly. etsy is the latest player to team up with an on demand partner to get you your order fasters. therapy lotting in certain areas of new york city running through the holidays. buyers in made of those artisan made earrings can play a flat fee of $20 to deliver the same or next day but not every seller or every item will be available for asap delivery. etsy has been planning the delivery pilot for months. online amazon launched a rival marketplace amazon handmade with 80,000 hand crafted items from around the world, 30% which can be personalized, only 600 immediately eligible for that fast prime shipping window when amazon land made launched earlier this month they say they are adding more daily. as consumers preferences shift towards those goods some say etsy has a nice handle on that market. others say they have made short term decisions frustrating sellers. etsy shares are down 31% from it's $16 ipo price. >> kate, there is a small business impact and how it's going to impact the retailers. this isn't toilet paper. i don't know what people will want immediately. >> absolutely not. it's important that the holiday season is upon us. now that the pilot is live selected retailers are gearing up to start shipping. sister duo amy and sara of hook and matter they have been tested delivery of their handmade jewelry for a few weeks. they do see a market for the service. >> i have had people come to town that were going to a wedding and forgot their earrings and they had me deliver the earrings to their hotel. there is definitely a market for i need this and i don't trust ups to get it me or usps to get it to me quickly enough. >> the holiday season is among their busiest time. they are saying they are only keeping inventory in stock available for on demand deliveries. just over a week ago uber announced its uber rush program in new york, san francisco and chicago, amazon has a same day delivery options and its own handmade story. >> i guess we will see. >> we will have to wait and see. >> i always have last minute birthday gifts that i forget. >> thank you very much. brian. >> share ration thank you. we will see you soon. thanks for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. >> hi, and welcome to the "closing bell," everybody. i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> and i'm bill griffeth. valeant pharmaceuticals now firing back finally at the short selling firm comparing it to enron. the company says that there is no evidence of any illegal activi activity, but are shareholders buying their argument? we have details on valeant as it continues to get slammed. >> the pharmaceutical sector has fallen 11% since

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