Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20150105 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch January 5, 2015

Bomb for stocks. Hell tell you what it is and why this hour. West texas crude crossing below the 50 mark for a short time. Right now just a nip above it. This is a massive cold snap about to cover much of the united states. Snow, too. Already hitting some parts of the country. Its going to be a rough week for weather. Snow ice and freezing cold. The forecast is ahead. We give it all to you, including sue at the nyse. Hi ty. And stocks have been spiraling lower this hour. A big triple digit loss on the dow jones. But we want to take a look at the dow and markets through the prism of ets. You can see down almost 1. 3 . Qqq, nasdaq 100 and the iwm is the russell. Now, the Health Care Sector is traveling with a break even line today. Some people were calling that a safe haven earlier. Not so much now. The hardest hit sectors of the day, energy. Financials materials, also down considerably on the trading session. Now, the transports and ten year transportation average is now down almost 2. 5 . 220 pountsints. And the money is going in the treasury market and into the dollar with the yield on the ten year note now the at 2. 044 . Bob pisani is picking up the story. People seem to be taking advantage of this year to get rid of some of those. There are big mac crowro themes. They keep pressing the big macro themes. Let me show you a strong dollar concerns about slower Global Growth hurting for example material names. Were seeing big names out there, steel stocks are weak. Alcoa is down. Global growth in oil weighing on . Some industrials. People asking why is caterpillar so swaekweak. They get 10 directly, another 15 indirectly. So maybe a third of caterpillar is at risk in terms of oil and gas exposure. Thats one reason. A lot of people trying to hide in consumer names, about you thats not working well for a couple reasons. There is the van guard oig difference department appreciation. And the reason is a lot of these funds that have dividend appreciation also have guess what, Energy Stocks in them. So some of the Biggest Holdings of this Vanguard Fund is occidental murphy, exxon. When theyre gowndown this much it drags the whole fund down with it. Finally, just to calm everybody down a little, the s p at historic high on december 29. Just a few days ago. So this drop here, were, what, 68 points to the down side. Thats only 2. 3 . I know its not a good day for the markets. But lets bear in mind that we were at historic highs just last week. Thats right. Thank you, bob. Always putting it in perspective for us. Dont want anyone panicking. Ty, up to you. Fears about europe sending the Euro Currency to a nine year low today against the dollar. Our senior economics reporter steefr liesman is at a major economics conference up in boston where europe is of course a big topic. But Michelle Carusocabrera is right here with us. And it looks like the eurozone debt crisis is being revived. Greek stocks down more than 5 . Italy the same. Yep. So what is happening today is the following. Reactions to two things. First, there was an article over the weekend in germany that suggested the german leadership was now comfortable with the possibility of greece leaving the euro. This could very well be negotiating tactic because they fear they will face this radical leftist who could win the elections who has said he wants to stay in the euro, but he wants a lot of things from the European Union and eurozone that make it pretty impossible for stay. The other thing that has happened is weve gotten some german inflation data which shows once again that across the european continent, theyre having a real issue with inflation, thats what the European Central bank is so inflation are or the lag of inflation . The lag of exactly. Good point. So those are the two things driving the sell off. Cg of, exactly. Good point. So those are the two things driving the sell off. Kg of, exactly. Good point. So those are the two things driving the sell off. Of, exactly. Good point. So those are the two things driving the sell off. Greece still hasnt done any of the reforms that they need to do. They keep saying austerity isnt work, but they never did the other half which is reforms are supposed to help the economy grow and do things and be more liberal. More open. Right. Not liberal in the political sense. Exactly. More in the economic sense of Less Government intervention and so forth. So that leaves germany to say, okay, if you dont want to do those things steve, what is the theme of the conference that youre at today up in boston and how are they, the economists youre talk to up there, processing the news out of europe today . Well, i think the first theme you hear a lot about is the general strength that the u. S. Economy relative to what is going on oversea, kind of getting a clean bill of health from the doctors or professors here. But no guarantees that they wont catch what is going on overseas. A lot of has been mentioned yet about leverage in china and concerns that that could create is already a financial bubble that could burst. And of course concerns about europe. Im not sure there is a whole lot of concern about the actual level of the euro as a reason for worry about the united states. If you put it all together, what do you have . You have very low Interest Rates over there and a depreciating currency. Those two things together say good out of that currency get into something else. Hence the march into u. S. Assets here. And it doesnt mean that they worpts eventually find their way into sockstocks, but right now a lot of parking this bonds. The trouble is that there isnt so much a plan, most believe that will be quantitative easing by the European Central bank. The concern is that it wont work. Marty feldstein was talking here and he said that he didnt think that lower Interest Rates from quantitativeyateive easing would help. And i dont know williamson spoke here and he suggested that it is indeed a headwind for the united states. The u. S. Domestically has a lot of momentum. Ndeed a headwind for the united states. The u. S. Domestically has a lot of momentum. The tail winds that we have in terms of energy prices, momentum jobs you cant outweigh the weakness from abroad. So that really is the story, whether or not those things going on overseas wash up on our shores. But right now the pin i dont think of guys like williams and others is that so far the u. S. Will be able to withstand that weakness. The question is will qe work. Greece didnt do a lot of the reforms. You can say that about italy. Spain has done some. But for example, if you need a notary to get anything done in rome, even to get on the brus,us, i exaggerate only slightly he can print all he wants but its a problem with the economy. Michelle the counter argument is that the current economic weakness in europe that were seeing the current lack ever low deflation, comes after a time period when the European Central banks Balance Sheet declined by 1. 1 trillion euros. So at least getting back to that old level could have a very important effect on the european economy. It wont be the fix to he said all oig all fixes, but certainly thought to be a part of the fix. But they still need a thick layer of reform on top of it. Just to make things move more smoothly. Lets send it over to dominic chu for a quick market flash. So energy may be among the biggest losers in trading today, but you money item stocks are also getting hit hard as well. Were talking about priceline, netflix, amazon tesla. As you can see, theyre all moving sharply lower to the down side and again, some of these names, high bay if a oneeta ones trade a lot more with leverage to them. So as the market goes down a lot of traders expect these names to go down by even more. Back to you. And so far theyre right. We just heard from michelle and steve about europe. So is it a good time to buy europe or should i stay away . Mike holland and dave donibidian, great day to have you both on. Mike, you know, there are a number of elements really to europes crisis which well take a look at in just a second. But overall, how serious is the situation in europe right now . I think its serious to the point that both Steve Liesman and Michelle Carusocabrera were talking when even the remedy socalled remedy, people are so split on what they actually mean. You have the germans who areen entrenched with the fact they dont want any easing on the other happened gernd germans showing they have no Price Inflation whatsoever. Deflation as we learned from ben bernanke something we want to avoid at all costs. And right now it doesnt look like as if they can do initially things that may get us to the point where we dont have to worry about that. Lets take a look at some of the three major issues that are facing europe. And i put this together when the euro was at a 2010 low. Right now its probably at a 2009 low given how much its dropped. European bond yields hitting record lows. And im a believer that the bond market kind of leads the equity market. Euro weakening to 2010 lows and ecbs draghi wont rule on the out the deflation risk. So dave how do you feel about the situation in europe right now. How dire is it . I agree that the conditions are serious. I also think that well have a lot more clarity by the end of the month. In just two days well get the eurozone wide inflation reading. We have the greek elections. And both of those things buttress draghis case for a significant quantitativeubtsntitative easing program. By months end, i think the outlook will be clear. Mike, you think its a little early, but you if youre brave there is value in europe. Well, bryces what you pay value is what you get once said. And to daves point, we will have january 22nd well find out what draghi he extent we have clarity and 5 kinds of declines in europe today and continuing decline, you could have sectors like energy dont laugh, and financials dont at levels where we havent seen them in terms of valuations in the last couple of cycles. So, yeah i think there is a potential for making a lot of money depending on how things play out here. If you have the stomach for it, good luck. We want to turn your attention and get some comments on the story that Mary Thompson has been reporting organization index funds versus stock picking in 2014 a great year for the index fund. Vanguard breaking record inflows bringing in 216 billion. A mind boggling amount, mary. And if you look at the casing a difference versus passive, its a case of investors not getting what they paid for. You dont get much for the additional 50 waivesbasis points. Preliminary data shows almost 80 of the active mutual funds underperformed their benchmarks. This is also a sharp increase from 2013 when over 54 of these funds yupd performed their befblg mark. Maybe you can attribute this through a couple of bad years for managers. Long term performance suggests those years can easily turn into decades. Over three, five and ten year period more than 70 of actively managed domestic equity funds consistently underperform their benchmarks. Makes a strong argument for passive or index investing. And it appears they are taking note with a peak of withdrawals in 2010 when they hit about 174 billion. All the while index funds, those tied to the s p 500 and other domestic equity stock indices have continued to retract money although at a slower pace. A certified Financial Planner uses actively machininged fund but only those his managers have a strong track record. While passive is a better bet when markets are going up she says active funds should provide better protection when markets are headed the other way. Back to you. Thank you very much. So lets get comments now. Dave ill turn to you first. Make the case for active investing. When basically we saw passive investing work so well over the past few years. Granted we were in a very sweet market at that point. Exactly. And i would argue that were close to the point at which the sweet point for indexing will be behind us. Indexing works best when market returns are strong when volatility is low and where stocks are highly correlated with one another. When we look at 2015 we see ankd i think digit return more value tilt and fewer stocks part pagt. Url that favors active managers focusing on valuations. And on Higher Quality Balance Sheets. Indexes tend to be more momentum vehicles late in the cycle. And mike what about you, i know that you are a part of or Founding Member of a Vanguard Charitable funds so we want to disclose that certainly. But what is your view on 2015 as it pertains to active investing versus indexing . I would echo a number of comments dave just made. And i have true confession, ive spent most of my life in active management business, but also a user of index funds because they represent a good value when youre trying to get exposure to markets. But in the market where you know a good manager who is one of that 30 that Mary Thompson referred to who outperform over long period of time and you have a special area where you want them, large cap equities, its tough to get a manager like that. But there are certainly areas in the mar are ket where you can find active managers do a great job. In 2015, it could be that kind of year. Straight up market means active managers have cash they will underperform the index virtually every time. But i think daves points are right. 2015 could be a good year for active management. All right. Especially if we have volatility coming back. Thanks to both of you. I hope you have a great new year. Dominic chu is back with a market flash. So one stock that is doing relatively well today is isis phrma. Its moving higher after johnson said it will pay for the option to license three drugs that target autoimmune diseases in the bowel. You can see isis up by 8 johnson and johnson down marginally. And in a cnbc exclusive, isis chief dr. Crooke will be jim cramers guest tonight on mad money. A Hedge Fund Founder has been shot dead in his manhattan apartment. Kate kelly tracking this developing story. The death of Hedge Fund Manager tom gilbert, founder of wayne scott capital, now appears to have been the product of a father son conflict that ended tragically. Sources have told our colleagues that the police now consider tom gilbert jr. To be a suspect. And that we may see charges filed later today. Tom gilbert sr. Whose fund managed 200 million in assets was shot in his east midtown manhattan apartment yesterday afternoon and was pronounced dead when paramedics arrived at the scene. His son was reportedly spotted leaving the Apartment Building where the shootingquestioning by the police. Officially, the death has not yet been ruled a homicide but sources say the gun used belonged to tom gilbert jr. And that he had had financial problems of late creating a possible motive. Meanwhile the future of wayne scott capital seems to be in question. Reached earlier today by phone, wayne scotts head of marketing told me only that Business Operations were on hold in light of the untimely news. The gilbert family has yet to issue a statement. But there will be a 3 00s from conference with commissioner erer bratton and playermayor de blasio. Items mostly on the police shootings, but perhaps in the q a. So well keep a look out for that. Kate thank you very much. Sue, down to you. Get your overcoat, coat get ready for very cold weather and snow, as well. Here is the weather chan ems tom niziol. Generally about a 3 to 5 swathe of snow across the northern part of the country. As much as 5 to 8 in the flanplains and foot around the lakes. Two shots of arctic area will overspread a good part of the eastern u. S. Take a look at the highs on wednesday. Chicago only 1, atlanta 38 temperatures as much as 30 degrees below normal. And by thursday morning, the low temperature, and chicago 14 below, nashville will only get to 7 for that overnight low. Charleston as low as 19. And finally this continues in to thursday with that cold air locked in across the eastern u. S. Stay tuned, we have cold in place for this bike being aweek across the eastern united states. Lows 4 to 5 in new york area later this week. There is phil lebeau behind the wheel bringing new meaning to the phrase hands free. Phil, tell us about it. Eyeler this is audis a7 piloted driving test car. And weve been driving it from San Francisco on our way to las vegas. Were in the Mojave Desert driving hands free, foot free. Navigating away traffic. Well show you how it works when power lunch returns. First impressions are important. Youve got to make every second count. Banking designed for the way you live your life. So you can welcome your family home. For the first time. Chase. So you can. So youre looking for a loan . Hows your credit . I know i have an 810 fico score, thanks to the tools and help on experian. Com. And your big idea is hot dogs shaped like hamburgers . Nope. Hamburgers shaped like hot dogs. Thats not really in our wheelhouse. You dont put it in a wheelhouse. You put it in your mouth. Get your credit swagger on. Become a member of experian credit tracker and find out your fico score powered by experian. Fico scores are used in 90 of credit decisions. Oil prices are falling. 5 1 2 year lows for that. You can see down by about 4 . 50. 55. Baker hughes out with its latest showing rigs down 29 from last week to 1811. But the rig count still up from the same time one year ago. Its been a tough session overall for Energy Stocks leading wait lower here. Noble energy, dan bury resources, trance soegssoceantransocean, out of the top 20 decliner, 15 were energy related. While most people will be flying in to las vegas for the annual Consumer Electronics show this week phil lebeau is driving. Sort of. Hes got access to a new hands free technology. So phil is in the car right now. And you are watching his car. It is especially equipped audi. Where are you a

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