Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20141201 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch December 1, 2014

Been looking at to see where the deals are. She is really looking at them and she will be with us today. That and more on a very busy hour of power lunch. First lets check in with sue at the nyse. We start with a scary sign at least for some. Trim tabs reporting inflows into Exchange Traded funds hit levels not seen since november of 2007. Stocks dropped like a rock from that date losing almost half of the value before bottoming out in march of 2009. Lets bring in bob pisani on that note. Those are interesting statistics. You could argue that is a bullish case and people are putting more money to work in etfs or look at the volatility in the market and say perhaps it is topping out in bearish side. November was a really big month. The s p was up 2. 5 . When you get months like that it happens. Secondly, we are seeing huge inflows of the u. S. Equities. The whole world wants to get into the united states. Europe is weaker, china is weaker. Money is flowing here naturally. The etf business is on fire. We arech approaching 2 trillion in assets. Everybody wants the indexes, cheaper, easier to trade. Is it also perhaps because it is getting harder to find individual stocks . That are not fairly valued or overvalued . Stock picking is becoming a much more difficult business and a lot of people have concluded it is easier to buy indexes. It is the triumph of indexing. Thank you very much, bob. You heard the numbers, are you at all worried about that . Jack, let me start with you. I dont worry about that number at all. I believe we are moving much more into a stock pickers market. Its not easy but particularly if you have managers working on both sides of the market both long and short this is the kind of market that you like. Yes, we are having flows coming into the etfs. That doesnt mean we are not having dispersion among earnings reports and among stock performance. I think we will see that continue as we move into 2015. Do you agree with that . I know you think the market will do fairly well into the new year. What about the etf numbers versus picks individual stocks . The etf numbers has been a trend in place for some time now. You have seen net outflows from 2007 out of mutual funds actively managed funds and large inflow into etfs. That trend really continues. Its kind of rational on behalf of investors because the number of publicly traded companies is actually declined. So your total selection has dried up. So i do agree that active management is going to play an increasing role and you saw it in this stock market this year. Dividend payers, u. S. Domestic stocks dramatically outperform. Weigh in on that if you will. A lot of our viewers go into mutual funds. You can be very particular about which mutual fund you go into and get one actively managed versus a passive fund. Which would you recommend . I definitely recommend active managers at this point in time. Past performance is not indicative of future results. We see that on the bottom of every report. I actually think that now is when it comes into play. Active managers are going to do much better than just simply playing the trends here. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Good to see you both. Lets go up to dominic chu for a market flash. So here what we are watching the dow jones transportation average, the rise in Oil Prices Today or bottoming out in some way shape or form may have investors scrambling. Airlines, alaska air, Norfolk Southern on the rail side and Kansas City Southern a tough day for the transports. Lets keep this in mind. Delta Airlines Stock is up 50 just since the middle of october so profit taking is certainly part of that picture, as well. Thank you very much. Early holiday promotions and on hine shopping taking a toll on brick and mortar retailers over the thanksgiving holiday weekend. National Retail Federation estimates shoppers spent 6. 5 less than a year ago spending an average of 381 at stores. Total spending fell 11 to about 51 billion over the entire part of the weekend. Holiday shopping season comes as prices at the pump continue to decline. The average price of gas now in the u. S. Is 2. 77 a gallon. And come on in here. Here she is morgan brennan. Big day for online sales and that means big business for the delivery companies. Last year they had some problems when they were swamped with orders. There were promises made that that package was absolutely positively going to be there under the tree and sometimes it wasnt. Thats right. That was last year. So that is one of the things in focus this year. Ups, fed ex and the u. S. Postal service are bracing for another record peak season. The nrf expects online sales to increase 11 with more than half consumers shopping digitally this season. While cyber monday is still big many people are waiting longer to make purchases. Thats the key because a last minute spike in Online Shopping contributed to shipping delays last year. 2 million packages didnt make it in time for christmas. Ups was late on about 1. 3 million packages according to ship matrix and fed ex. So this year they are pushing their busiest, forecast for the busiest days back closer to christmas. Ups and fed ex have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into updating networks and hiring more workers to try and keep up. And the Postal Service which didnt experience delays last year is already doing sunday deliveries. Analysts think all of this will be enough to prevent another christmas catastrophe though bad weather is always a wide card when it comes to the shippers. Investors are upbeat, as well. Take a look at these stock charts thanks to Lower Oil Prices we have seen shares of ups and fed ex recently hitting fresh 52week highs. If that trend to continue we are really going to have to see them deliver for peak season otherwise we could see another sell off like we did last year after those late holiday packages cut into q 4 earnings. They got to deliver. They got to deliver. Lower gas prices on the one hand and some disappointing holiday Sales Numbers on the other. What are consumers doing with their money . We will ask that question to a retail analyst in just a second. First we want to hear from you. Where are you doing your Holiday Shopping . In a store or online . We are going to find out. Go to cnbc. Com vote and weigh in. I guess probably everybody goes both places one way or another. Liz dunn is with us. Long time retail analyst will take a look at how and where consumers are spending their holiday dollars. You were out all weekend long in california. What did you see . What was traffic like . Which kind of malls seemed to have the fullest parking lots and such . I was surprised with the crowds on thursday. Thursday was really busy, just very disciplined shoppers getting out there with the specific list in mind looking for those door busters. The rest of the weekend was pretty much a bust. The higher end malls seemed to be doing a little better than lower end malls that i visited. None of the parking lots were particularly busy early on on friday or throughout the weekend. It was fairly mediocre. I went to a Sports Authority saturday morning around 10 00. There were more employees in the store than there were shoppers. It was not a particularly good sign, i would say, for retail generally. You said that the higher end malls seemed to have more traffic than the lower end malls. What does that tell you . Well, i think that there are a number of things that people are floating this weekend about this weend. I think that some consumers may be staying home because they feel like they can maybe get better deals online or they are not so sure that the great deals are out there for this black friday weekend. I think, also, the higher end consumer continues to be in a little better shape and have a little more to spend and not facing some of the same pressures that the lower income consumer does what about the idea that black friday and the weekend shopping spasm is kind of so 2007 . In other words, now the deals begin much earlier. Many more of us are shopping online and we dont rush out over the black friday holiday, we are kind of beyond it. The deals definitely started earlier. Thursday stole some of the business from friday. And really with all the way. I think that steals a lot of hype from black friday. It is a little bit of a dated concept. To the same extent i think retailers feel pressured if they are not in the game than perhaps they lose market share. Look at thursdays sales were very, very strong. If you werent open thursday you missed out. Very quickly, give me two stores that you think were standouts. I think lululemon was a standout. They did have a clearance. They had a dj and muffins and were not offering a blanket promotion. American eagle was a standout. Their promotions were less than last year but still had crowds. I know we will be back and checking in with you as this Holiday Season ensues here. Lets lock in the vote. Where are you shopping . I figured it is basically split ticket. 53 say online. 47 say in store. Sue, down to you. Its already turning into a nightmare of a Holiday Season for sony. Its major movies leaked online after a hack attack. Julia boorstin joins us with some of the fallout for the company. Sources tell me the fbi is now involved in investigating who is responsible for uploading five sony films four of which have yet to be released. There are questions of whether kim jongun was behind the attack because of the interview, a sony comedy about an assassination attempt on the north korean leader. The movie is scheduled for release on christmas day. North korea called the movie an act of terror and promised retaliation against the u. S. If it was released. The reboot of annie is one of the movies posted to piracy sites. The most pirated sony film in the wake of this attack is fury starring brad pitt. It has been in theaters for over a month. In three days it was illegally downloaded nearly 900,000 times according to one report. A sony spokesperson saying the theft is a criminal matter and we are working closely with Law Enforcement to address it. Thats not all, the hack also took its toll on productivity at the studio. The company says it is just getting systems up and running after a week of no email or voice mail. A difficult situation all the way around. Thank you. There is one Company Looking to cash in on cyber monday. Its blue nile. The ceo joins us next. Are consumers spending more this year . Find out what trends he is seeing. And William Dudley making big head lines minutes ago. Steve liesman speaks with him exclusively about what is ahead for the fed and the economy. Heres some news you may find surprising. Were for an open internet for all. Were for creating more innovation and competition. Were for Net Neutrality protection. Now, heres some news you may find even more surprising. Were comcast. The only isp legally bound by full Net Neutrality rules. Welcome back to power lunch. We are watching shares of huntsman chemicals here. The chemical maker is cutting 900 jobs and said it was evaluating options to reduce capacity in the pigments and additives business. The cuts will save it about 130 million a year. Huntsman down by about a percent. Over the past year shares up about 10 . Thank you very much. California resources begins trading on the nyse here today under the symbol cyse. Intel will supply the chips for the next version of google glass replacing processors from Texas Instruments according to the wall street journal. Glaxo planning to cut hundreds of jobs in the u. S. It is, of course, cyber monday. Deals on smart phones and gadgets might entice you on the short term our next guest is quick to remind you that diamonds are forever. Blue nile rang the opening bell at nasdaq this morning. Good to have you with us. Good to be here on cyber monday and talk about incredible diamond values to the market. Lets talk about one sliver of the market that i want to get a sense of how hot it is for you. That is mobile. There is Online Shopping and then there is mobile shopping. How much a bigger hunk of your business is it . Mobile is really accelerating. We saw 60 plus percent of traffic coming from mobile device over the thanksgiving weekend. In china we saw a tenfold increase. Black friday was the biggest black friday in traffic we have seen. It was a mobile weekend for sure. Are people just as inclined to buy an expensive diamond, a 10,000 piece, a 40,000 piece or greater online than they are via mobile as they are online or in a store. Rue sell 40,000 diamonds on mobile device. We have sold 225,000 stones on a mobile device. Your stock is up over the past month or so but it has been a rough year for you. How hopeful are you that the stock is now in a different gear than it has been . We really concentrate on driving our business. Although q 2 wasnt as strong as we had hoped for there was increased volatility in the market. What we have done in q 3 was a 7 growth rate based on driving the value and mix. The quality with 250,000 stones on the website and prices that we have documented are 40 to 70 lower than our competition through Wakefield Research really allows us to get our feet back under us. Q 3 demonstrated that really well. It was a nice quarter. 7 increase or thereabouts. Lets talk a little bit. We have been talking a lot today about how it was not such a great sort of shopping weekend but you just said that this was your best black friday ever. How does this Holiday Season stack up and how does it look over the next three or four weeks for you . It is really critical. This was our biggest traffic on black friday ever. Traffic is one thing. Business, we have 23 days of christmas to go. Until that period of time is over the quarter is not done. The black friday was the beginning and we have a long way to go. We feel really good about the results over the fourday period wednesday through saturday. Im just curious, harvey. Someone buys a diamond from you, a 40,000 diamond, how does it get to them . Do you ship it via fed ex and what is the insurance cost on that . Apart from the idea that im not going to see the diamond that im buying. Im doing it online. What is the wrinkle in shipping . You know, the fact of the matter is that consumers spend a lot of time searching for diamond. We have a 30day no questions return policy. We have a very good track record of delivering to a consumer with no problem. We feel comfortable with the security online today via delivery of the diamond is not a problem. I appreciate you being with us and good luck to you as the season continues. Happy holidays. You bet. We are going to talk about the oil shock. Crude spiking higher today but sitting near fiveyear lows. The Ripple Effect covered from every angle. Michelle carusocabrera looking at the break even cost for oil around the world. Dominic chu drilling on the stocks. Phil lebeau with the impact on the airlines and impact of Falling Oil Prices on u. S. Producers. Brian sullivan is live in bakken. Are you spending more on gas prices as they drop . Go to cnbc. Com vote. That is coming up next. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. My baby drove up in a brand new cadillac. 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Phil lebeau with what it means for airlines and autos and Brian Sullivan is live in the frigid bakken with impact on u. S. Producers. You get to we

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