Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20141126 : comparemela.com

Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20141126



and the barrel is now squarely in opec's court. will decide whether to cut or not cut. oil dropping 30% in six months as we have been saying. now, though, to sue who made it over the hills and over the bridge. >> it was a slippery ride. today is the busiest travel day of the year. 46 million americans will be on the move. 3.5 million plan to fly to their thanksgiving destination. the big storm hitting the northeast is derailing some of those plans. phil lebeau is live at chicago's o'hare airport. first to kate rogers at new york's la guardia. >> reporter: we are just starting to see the weather start to shift to snow here at la guardia. we are noticing delays and cancellations on arrival and departure boards. we have more than 550 flights cancelled in and out of the u.s. we are nearing 2,000 flights being delayed. here at la guardia 130 flights cancelled. a lot of the passengers we have been speaking to here looking to get out ahead of the storm. >> we always book early flights on holidays. >> i definitely got up about an hour earlier because of it. >> reporter: another interesting thing we are noticing here. tsa security screening lines have been pretty short for now. so for the time being it looks like if your flight is on time that process is pretty painless for now. >> we are used to very travel days with a large number of passengers. we are used to these heavy travel days nationwide and staff accordingly at our airports all across the country to anticipate the flight loads. >> reporter: and as we have been noting for you throughout the day, delta, united, american airlines and southwest airlines all waiving fees that theytypically charge consumers to change flight times within a certain window of time. if you pass the window then you will incur extra fees. i know phil lebeau will break it down for what it means for the big picture industry. >> let's go to mr. phil lebeau at o'hare airport. what's it looking like out there? >> reporter: this is one of those rare days where it is very quiet and calm here at the o'hare american terminal. t 3 usually you see a lot of people around here. not today. it is relatively calm. i got two charts i want to show you because i think they speak to why we are in the sweet spot in the market and the year for the airlines. you take a look what is going on as far as returns for airlines our stats team crunched the number. you see the airlinestypically outperform when you look from now until the end of the year. that is why many are expecting we see the airline stocks continue to move higher. finally when you look at what is happening with oil prices relative to air fares we always hear people say air fares are going higher. in this case they are up 3%. tyler and sue, back to you. >> happy turkey day. we'll see you soon. despite the headaches expected today there are travelers who planned ahead and purchased insurance against travel disruptions. joining us on the phone is john noel. they launch air care this past may. it is flight protection coverage which can be purchased up to one hour before departure. welcome back. happy thanksgiving. tell us how much your sales have grown since the beginning of november. >> thanks very much. happy thanksgiving to you, as well. our sales are multiplying because we started small percentage wise thousands of percent. but what we are seeing is tremendous interest in the air care product from really all of o our -- >> at this point let's take a look at what you can cover if people purchase this 25 coverage per trip one hour before their flight. does that count on a day like today where we have had a weather incident predicted for some time that can still wait for an hour before their flight. what are the coverage levels? >> the restriction on the purchase is 24 hours prior to their flight. so those people who haven't purchased yesterday are kind of out of luck for today. in terms of coverage if an individual is delayed on the tarmac for two hours or more they are entitled to $1,000 payment which is deposited in their pay pal account immediately within seconds after the occurrence or into their checking account doing an electronic funds transfer. we pay $250 for missed connection and $50 for delay. $500 for delayed baggage up to 12 hours and $1,000 for totally lost baggage stolen, et cetera. >> and which of those things that you just outlined do you have to pay out on the most? >> let me say this, the travel delay is the most frequent claim that we have where travel delay is up to over two hours. the benefit that we pay is $50 and that is the most frequently used coverage. however, i do want to say that we like to call this plane side assistance similar to road side assistance which people travel in cars, we are offering service where we give customers 24 hour access to trained travel agents and specialists who help them with really any problem that they might incur as well as transportation in terms of limos, cars, taxis, trains, trucks, rental vehicles, we have rented trucks for people to get from one location to another. >> we have to leave it there. have a great holiday. nice to talk with you again. >> there you see washington, d.c. where it looks rather calm right there except in the capital dome. >> going to impact the northeastern u.s. on one of the busiest travel days of the year. let's look at how this is going to play out. using our computer model here a heavy area of snow across portions of upstate new york and pennsylvania right back into the appalachians. down along the i-95 corridor the separation point. you see the temperatures here remaining in the mid to upper 30s in places like washington, d.c. and new york. just inland from there very heavy snow falling throughout the afternoon and into the evening. that will continue. new york changes to snow later tonight. boston stays rain until the overnight hours and turns over to snow. before the system moves out pretty rapidly and thanksgiving day turns out to be nice and cold. washington, d.c. right in the city one to three inches. to the northwest of there as much as a half a foot of snow. new york one to three inches in new york. as much as eight inches a few miles inland. the jackpot boston three to five inches of snow with as much to a foot to a foot and a half inland. this is going to be a big storm for that thanksgiving eve holiday. crude is under pressure as oil ministers meet in vienna. saudi arabia says plunging oil prices will eventually stabilize and is in pushing for production cuts. reuters saying output cut is unlikely. steve sedgewick is in vienna with more. >> reporter: ahead of the biggest opec meeting in years. a day of meetings. i will be speaking to those who have had meetings not only with each other. they said they are getting closer to accord. that could mean no cut in production. despite the fact that many thought they needed to make a strong statement. it appears we are very much in plan b territory where instead of defending price they are trying to defend the market share. they have failed meeting with the likes in the last 24 hours where the russians and mexicans were unable to offer cuts on their part towards stabilizing prices. that would mean very much heavy lifting would have to fall on saudi and their allies. it seems saudi are looking to play a longer game and defend market share and perhaps not defend price at this moment. >> thank you very much. oil prices have plunged since roughly june. and that leads us to our next discussion. jim cramer sounded off on these plunging prices just yesterday. >> i think the supply and demand for oil are in balance right here in the low 70s. i think these prices, again, give or take $5 might be the correct prices for the market. we may truly be in equilibrium. if that is the case be prepared for the consumer to keep spending. >> let's bring in ron ensana. just think marty mcfly. you have supply and demand. no indication that really right now that there is going to be a big cut in supply. >> maybe not. >> or maybe none. demand relatively stable. >> maybe falling. >> india slowing down. japan may or may not be. hard to tell. the u.s. is holding up relatively well, tyler, but we are producing 9 million barrels a day. >> you make the argument we are the swing producers. >> if you look forward. the u.s. is in the seat here. fracking is not going away. some of the producers who engage don't seem to be too bothered by the falling prices. they are pumping deep water drilling in the gulf of mexico. mexico is liberalizing industry. more american technology going down there. there is a lot of oil. demand is flat to slightly down. >> maybe you see prices roughly stable or maybe a little lower. >> absent some kind of international shock. >> we had the islamic state. we have had russia and ukraine. throughout this entire period where there have been these hot beds the price has fallen throughout these events because supply is exploding and demand is flat to down. it is a big benefit for the u.s. consumer. >> let me turn you to economic numbers today. consumer spending among them. durable goods. >> durable is volatile. jobless claims still consistent with decent job growth. ten weeks in a row claims below. there is hiring in retail but shut downs in other manufacturing and energy operations. i wouldn't make anything out of this batch of numbers we got this morning. u.s. economy looks pretty good. 4.2% increase in travel year over year. >> whether or not it accelerates. >> consumption should be fine. >> we want to pick up on something you were talking about. watch shares today. they have taken a beating. they are right at session lows. this is a bermuda based. it said it will suspend its dividend payments amid a sharp decline in oil prices and shankshankz sanctions on russia. others are down in sympathy. when you have lost a fifth of market value it is a tough day for your investors. >> absolutely, it is. a second night of protests in ferguson, missouri and across the nation from new york to oakland. >> the snow is falling now in ferguson. will that cool the tensions here? and we'll have a closer look inside officer darren wilson's first public statements since the shooting of michael brown. that's all when "power lunch" continues. toothbrush... sweater... extra sweater... headphones, sleeping mask... oh, and this is the xfinity tv app. he can watch his dvr'd shows from where ever he wants. hey. have fun, make some friends. alright. did i mention his neck pillow? (sniffs pillow) watch your personal dvr library where ever you go. with the x1 entertainment operating system. it was another night of protests in ferguson, missouri and across the whole country. you are looking at demonstrations in atlanta, new york city, oakland, california. for the first time last night we heard from police officer darren wilson. scott cohn is live in ferguson. >> reporter: 44 arrests last night according to authorities. some of them felony charges but they also say some of the peaceful protesters actually helped police to try to calm down the tensions here. we will see as we get another night removed from the announcement of the grand jury decision. officer darren wilson has in fact broken his silence in an interview last night he talked about a number of things including the moment when he says michael brown turned to him and charged at him. listen. >> his right hand immediately goes into his waist band and left hand a fist and he starts charging me. >> what did you think when he saw that? >> even though he hadn't pulled something out earlier when he was confronting you. >> it was the unknown. >> reporter: there was a witness or person with michael brown. that was his friend who saw the whole thing and he also testified before the grand jury with a different version of where, of what happened outside the vehicle after the first shot he says went off. he says it's like this hand is up and this hand is down sort of. the prosecutor asks his hands were nowhere near his waist? it wasn't like he was wearing a belt. the fact is that we may never know exactly what happened that night and that may be part of why the tensions continue here in ferguson. >> thank you very much. live for us. mark morial, president and ceo of the national urban league. he was in ferguson, missouri yesterday and is back in new york today. he joins us now live from rockefeller center. mayor morial it is nice to have you with us. your reaction said you were incredibly disappointed. >> disappointed with the decision of the grand jury, certainly in strong support of those who wish to peacefully protest. we disassociate ourselves with anyone who would carry out violent acts against people, property or businesses. i think witnesses and viewers should understand there were over 100 protests last evening and the only place there was violence was in ferguson. those committing those acts of violence are criminals. they are people who are not, we think, consistent with those who want to peacefully protest the grand jury's decision. i might add, if a witness appeared before the grand jury and disputed the officer's testimony, that alone suggests that an indictment would have been warranted because the standard for an indictment is only that there is probable cause. i am disappointed in the entire grand jury process managed by the prosecutor attorney. >> that, mayor morial is what i wanted to ask you. one is entitled to be disappointed in the result of a grand jury or jury proceeding. lots of verdicts people don't agree with one way or another. you have a problem with the process that this grand jury went through and how it was led by the people who were presenting evidence. would you elaborate on that? >> from the very beginning there has not been -- and this is from people on the ground who know robert mccullough -- not a lot of confidence that he had intent on returning an indictment. typically a grand jury proceeding is trunicated and condensed. in this case the grand jury heard testimony from over 50 witnesses. the target of the grand jury investigation, darren wilson, testified for several hours and the prosecutor did not recommend -- this is important -- did not recommend a charge to the grand jury. typically the prosecutor sees the grand jury as it is as his tool and in every case the prosecutor suggests, recommends that there be an indictment if evidence is presented to a grand jury. this is not a question of guilt or innocence. it's not a question of proving beyond a reasonable doubt. it was also interesting to me that the announcement of the results of the grand jury came at 9:00 p.m. at night and that the prosecutor made a 20-minute presentation seeking to justify the actions of the grand jury. all of this is not what you wouldtypically see in the case of a grand jury investigation which is an early stage in a criminal proceeding. >> there is another nationwide movement gaining traction on twitter and in social media, #boycottblackfriday. we see it on twitter and facebook. will you be boycotting black friday? are you asking for other americans to do that? >> i think that is an individual choice. the national urban league is not joined in that call or in that cause. i think there will be many ways that people will choose to express their disappointment in the grand jury decision. >> mr. mayor thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it. straight ahead the sector etfs that rally the most between thanksgiving and christmas. plus -- >> up next, a power pitch startup that pays to clear out cluttered closets. >> it is the leading online shop to buy and sell like new. >> will the panel call it a dud or will they be in? >> how do you make sellers happy? >> do you expect to continue to grow your customer base? >> stay tuned to vote with the power pitch panelists live. are you in or out on this week's startup? go to cnbc.com/vote right now and get ready to start voting. [ radio chatter ] ♪ [ male announcer ] andrew. rita. sandy. ♪ meet chris jackie joe. minor damage, or major disaster, when you need us most, we're there. state farm. we're a force of nature, too. ♪ we're a force of nature, too. you can bring back from a trip around the world. but you can't always bring back customer data. because many customers don't like it when their data moves around. can i go now? if you're going to do business globally, you need a cloud that can keep your data where it needs to be. today, there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm. i make a lot of purchases foand i get ass. lot in return with ink plus from chase. like 50,000 bonus points when i spent $5,000 in the first 3 months after i opened my account. and i earn 5 times the rewards on internet, phone services and at office supply stores. with ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. travel, gift cards, even cash back. and my rewards points won't expire. so you can make owning a business even more rewarding. ink from chase. so you can. welcome back to "power lunch." shares of twitter are on the move. today the company is in talks to buy shots, a selfie application backed by justin bieber. sources tell cnbc that twitter is interested in shots because of a young user base. year to date twitter down about 35% but seems twitter could be looking to put in an acquisition and that may be one of them. time for the power pitch. entrepreneurs get 60 seconds to persuade a panel of experts that their company has what it takes to be the next big thing. >> i am the ceo of thred up. we solve two major problems. we help busy moms clean out closets and closets of their kids. we send you a prepaid bag. you fill it and leave it on your door step. we pick it up at your house. it is easier than giving things away. we take the items and buy them from you. we put them online at up to 90% off. we sell more than 25,000 brands across every major category. launched in 2010 we have raised $50 million. last year we sold almost 2 million items and recycled a million pounds of clothing. our mission has been to inspire a new generation of consumers. with our innovative clean out bag and online shop we are bringing that experience to thousands of moms every day. >> hi, we just heard the pitch for thred up. on set with us is founder and ceo of pantegrion capital and serves on the board of new york angels which has invested over $100 million in over 100 startups. also here is founder of red giraffe advisers. and in san francisco principle at forerunner ventures targeting digital commerce and includes birch box. thank you for joining us on the panel. james you will be in the hot seat. >> you mentioned you are doing 2 million items in sales last year. you recycled one million pounds of clothing with 150 people in your warehouse. as you grow and scale your business how can you manage these operations effectively? >> we build processes for people and systems to scale beyond one distribution center to multiple. we have hired an amazing team. the chief operating officer used to build out the netflix hubs. so we have the team in place to scale the business. >> it sounds like one of the big differentiation points is the idea of white glove services where you do everything for the seller to make some extra cash. at the lower price points are you able to make enough profit on a per bag basis to pay for the efforts you guys are doing to ship and process and list all of these item snz. >> based on the way we pay sellers based on price of items which ranges from 10% to 80% we are able to with the efficient systems we have put the items online and sell them at a profit. >> have you got another question? >> i would like to hear more about customer service. specifically, a lot of the people who have sold clothing had said that maybe the quality assessments of the clothing they sent in were consistent or they felt like they wanted their items back but were lost in your distribution center. how do you improve customer service? >> if you over emphasize the 1% of folks who are unhappy you miss the point. the point is 99% of people have an amazing experience and i think all startups have issues as they scale to ensure that they have integrity in the process. >> do you expect to continue to grow your customer base? >> the industry has been growing 7% year over year for the past decade. i think what we are seeing with customers which is a surprise to us is that almost half of our customers, the first time they bought a used item was on thred up. >> what have you done in terms of marketing and branding to really understand and capture this mom customer that you want to get? >> mom doesn't define herself just by the fact that she has kids. she is a vibrant woman who wants to look and feel great. >> we have heard what james had to say. we need to find out if the panel and you are in or out on thred up. >> i personally feel like this company is playing too close to a good will. there are a lot of businesses i would like to see disrupted but good will is not one of them. i'm out. >> i think the traction you guys have gotten is amazing. i am concerned as you grow the operations could be costly and difficult to scale and therefore i'm out. >> what about you? >> i'm really concerned about the struggles with trying to be a profitable business model playing at the lower end price points. it sounds like you have tried to reach enough scale that your operations are able to make that work. and so i'm in. >> so we have two outs and one in. james, what is your reaction? >> certainly we have lots of challenges. as we scale the business, but i think the proof is in the numbers. every day thousands and thousands of new customers sign up for thred up. >> best of luck to you. thank you for sharing our story. thanks to our panel today. our live voting is just about to close. thank you for your in or out and that is today's power pitch. >> let's check in on the bank market. rick santelli is at the cme. >> didn't we pack in the numbers in the option today all basically before noon eastern. if we look at the data and we look at the option you can see the seven didn't really show you major outcome. it was an average auction with 92 billion in supply out the door. let's look at a start to tens. wild session. wild sessions give you valuable information. the settlement was 214. and as this market starts to come down if we close here lowest yield close what you should be looking at is the bund versus tens. the widest in about 14 years. the chart you are looking at now is a one year chart. you add 150 for the spread and get the ten year yield. as yields go down in europe we will continue most likely to see the 1.50. let's look at a two-day of the dollar index. not many times you have two days down. it seems a little bit of profit taking. we are mostly close. do keep in mind due to weakness in other economies the dollar index is close to best levels since the summer of 2010. back to you and have a happy, healthy thanksgiving. >> right back at you, rick. thank you very much. 28 days now until christmas. that's not much time to get your shopping done but it is plenty of time for -- just what comes to my mind, sector etfs. that's what i'm thinking about dominic chu. >> if you are thinking about sector etfs with 28 days left we have a list of some of the biggest ones out there and which perform the best in that time between thanksgiving and christmas. all of that next on "power lunch." there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? in one second, he made a trade, we looked for the best price, and the trade went through. do the other guys guarantee that? didn't think so. open an account and find more of the expertise you need to be a better investor. toothbrush... sweater... extra sweater... headphones, sleeping mask... oh, and this is the xfinity tv app. he can watch his dvr'd shows from where ever he wants. hey. have fun, make some friends. alright. did i mention his neck pillow? (sniffs pillow) watch your personal dvr library where ever you go. with the x1 entertainment operating system. my 8 year old was filling out his request list for santa and he put on it, dear santa, i want a sector etf that outperforms between thanksgiving and christmas. that is what he asked for. he doesn't want aaron rodgers jersey. >> you just want something -- >> no madden 25. he wants sector etf. >> that is all fluff. this is real. we asked our partners. we said which ones do better. let's bring up the s&p. over the last ten years the s&p 500 on average during the holiday season between thanksgiving and christmas up about 2.5 and positive 9 out of 10 times. that's the santa claus reality. industrials, the third best performing sector etf out there, the xli up on average nearly 3.5%. it is positive nine out of the last ten holiday seasons. materials, cyclical, about 3.5%, as well. it is positive 90% of the time as well. and number one, the best performing sector etf in terms of the big brought sectors is health care sector up by nearly almost 4%. it's been up 10 out of the last 10 years. it is batting 1,000 with regard to what is happening. when you are looking at sector etfs we just took a handful of the broad sector ones. health care has done the best versus the market and has been up every year over the past ten. >> you are getting a lovely xlv for christmas. >> that's all you are getting. xlv. sue, down to you. >> guys, stocks are mixed ahead of thanksgiving. a drop for the dow. we are almost back to the green. if it was down today it would mark the first back-to-back losses since october 16. so where is the big money going between now and year end. michael far joins us. and mike holland, chairman of holland and company joins us. happy holidays, guys. nice to see you. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. michael, i'm going to start with you. dominic left off on the health care etf. health care is one of the areas you still like. >> it is. i think it makes a great deal. >> i'll be michael. >> you know what, that is true. you be michael. he is mike. michael, health care. >> i'm still feeling bad for mackey who is getting an etf for christmas. tell mackey i will send him a remote controlled something or other. >> send him a lemon pound cake. >> they are coming. we had over 40 all-time new highs on the dow so far this year. if the rule is to buy low and sell high and we are making consistent new highs this wouldn't strike one as a buying point. i think it is good to be defensive. i think health care is the right place to be and you saw the numbers on it. it makes a lot of sense. i also take a look at consumer staples, not so much the cyclicals and i probably look at industrials, too, as safer places in this kind of a market. >> and mike, what about you? do you still like the market at this point? because i interviewed somebody the other day who said i think we are a little overvalued in most sectors at this point. how do you feel about it? >> overall i remain somewhat optimistic about the u.s. stock market and also markets outside the u.s. in large part because of what the central banks continue to do outside the u.s. and are doing more of as we speak. i think michael farr's comments, sue, are well regarded with respect to you have things at highs. i have been selling a few things here and there. i am always prepared not only for a down side surprise but also an upside surprise. i think there is a possibility with companies like intel, apple, wal-mart their businesses continue to do okay. they are going to power this market to even more new highs as was describing. >> from both of you. mike i will stay with you. we have a lot of people who think volatility will increase considerably in the new year. do you fall into that camp? >> absolutely. i think we are learning history as we go along here with what the fed has done, they pulled away the qe. we have had a taste of it. i think while the market may be secularly up we have big surprises to the down side as well as the upside. >> michael, what about you? >> i would agree. look for volatility probably more after the first of the year because we have seen those long term trends do look higher. i looked at analytics calling for a higher end of the year. as we get into the new year you know the noise in washington is getting louder. and i think that you will see washington add volatility and we did see the trade off this year in february. you might see markets give back a little at the beginning. >> i hope both of you have a great thanksgiving. thanks for joining us. happy thanksgiving. cnbc's million dollar homes challenge is back. this time we are going home for the holidays. our reporters go back to their home towns. that looks nice. to see what $1 million buys you. you can vote on which home you think is the better buy right now. go to cnbc.com/vote. "power lunch" back in two. your old 401k is rolled over into a td ameritrade ira. yes! so no set up fees! wooh! yeah! so i get help from rollover consultants? wooh! yes! no rollover hassle. great. woah oh, we're spiking things, robbie. for all the confidence you need. that's better! td ameritrade. you got this. and i quit smoking with chantix. people who know me, they say 'i never thought you would quit.' but chantix helped me do it. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. it gave me the power to overcome the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some people had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix or history of seizures. don' take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these, stop chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, or if you develop new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack or stroke. decrease alcohol use while taking chantix. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. i'm a non-smoker, that feels amazing. ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. this time we sent our reporters literally home for the holidays. two $1 million homes face off against one another. viewers, you decide the winners. get ready to vote by going to cnbc.com/vote. last round's winner, the secluded digs is taking on a new competitor. here we go. >> this -- with the solar panels you never have a power bill. just steps from the classic staircase and vaulted sealings rr is a kitchen so large it has two islands, two ovens, a large pantry and instant hot water, office, library, security, fire places throughout including one here in the master suite where there is also a closet big enough to live in and a completely remodelled bathroom. hidden away and close to everything like year round horseback riding and golf. yours for $999,000 mptd. this contemporary waterfront home is four stories tall. it spans 1.5 acres and you can enjoy the beautiful lakefront views from your private dock or one of two different decks. a mahogany front door leads to 5,000 feet of living space. cozy up in front of one of three different fire places and make your way to the gourmet kitchen and two wolf ovens to cook up family favorites. the spacious floor plan boasts five large bedrooms, one that is sound proof, 4.5 bathrooms, sun room, family room and a fully finished walk out basement equipped with the perfect holiday bar. just 15 minutes from here is a beautiful historic downtown, the scene of many civil war battles and great bars and restaurants. a spectacular lakefront home for the holidays, 999,9,90$999,900. >> keep voting. we see numbers tallying there. which one is the bigger bang for the buck? vote now. our real estate broker is here. secluded digs is in california. the lakehouse is? >> winchester, virginia. >> about an hour outside of d.c.ish. >> and kind of an area that's very secluded. the next house isn't so on top of you. >> in winchester. >> and jane says secluded digs roughly the same price. >> same size. >> same number of bedrooms. almost same amount of acreage. truly very similar houses. >> as you know the two markets, which one appeals to you most or might make one of these houses a better value? >> i think these are tough. these are really tough because -- and yet similar. contrasting but similar. i'm always going to be the coastal person so it is always the new york or the l.a., unfortunately, for me. and i would definitely go besides the fact that -- i would go with jane's house. >> jane is topless. we will show her baby pictures. >> look at that. >> jane is topless. that is why she won the last round. >> that is some very sexy lingerie. >> real estate porn here. >> there is brian sullivan on graduation day from one of the schools in my home state of virginia. you got a few seconds more to vote at cnbc.com. >> and now he has two babies. >> it's very nice. >> what were you saying? >> we need to go to the results here. >> we are at the results. >> you would pick the coast. >> yes. >> which is why they will pick the other, right? >> i guess people like the lake house. they like the feel of it. >> beautiful house, beautiful finishes. well done. >> the viewers have spoken there. and a topless wells couldn't pull it out. >> not this time. >> we'll be back to jane. the next matchup in our next hour on "street signs." >> i don't think that was the lakehouse winner. i think that was the wrong picture. maybe we were seeing the back of it. you will crown the ultimate winner during "closing bell." >> what would you have voted for? >> i probably would have voted for the california one. it is better weather right now. i like the fact that it had a pool and despite the fact that i grew up in virginia and i love winchester. apple capital of virginia. got to leave it there. >> thank you. i would have gone with the lakehouse. i grew up in california. as we approach black friday we want to know what are you planning on doing? are you in shopping in the stores or shopping online? are you doing both? or just staying away completely? having turkey leftovers? go to finance.yahoo.com and give us your vote. the dow has just turned positive by about 0.25 point. we are back in a moment. cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. welcome back to "power lunch." michael johnson exercised options to buy 750,000 shares of the company's stock in what the company calls a confidence in the future. skeptics point out the shares were sold right away to pay for the cost of buying the stocks and the resulting tax liability meaning the exercise happened without cash changing hands on options that were due to expire next month so interesting here that the herbal life stock is up here. two sides to that story. back to you. >> absolutely. thank you very much. let's take a look at what is happening during this hour of power. amazon near closing $1.2 billion deal to buy indian fashion site. shares of sea drill hitting session lows after the drilling contractor reported earnings that miss td estimates. and twitter higher after sources telling us that the social media company is in talks to by selfie app shots. in today's yahoo finance poll we asked what's your take this black friday? 5% of you say you are shopping in store. 11% say i'm only shopping online. 6% say i will be doing both. 78% say i'm staying away completely. that's what they say. let's see what is coming up on "street signs." >> i think i will stay away completely. ticktock to the opec meeting. we will ask an expert voice what he thinks. an awesome app for the budding wine commissure. and an out of the shark tank success story. there was no question she was the one. she reminds you every day. but your erectile dysfunction-that could be a question of blood flow. cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. then all the parts. come together, and there it is ... our new car! so, that's how santa fits it in his sleigh. wow ... wow. the magic of the season is here, at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. so if you get a trade idea about, say, organic food stocks, schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind, lisa? i'd like to talk about a trade idea. let's hear it. [ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ let's check the markets for you right now. the dow briefly moved into the green. it is down but only by about throw points. the s&p is up about 3.5 and the composite is the leader in terms of three major indexes. i was just hearing from kenny what he makes for thanksgiving. tell me what you feel about the market? >> it is very quiet. there is some disconnect in this morning's numbers versus yesterday. gdp revision was so strong. today you are not going to get a lot of action from the market just because it is the day before the holiday. i think we have tested 2,074 which was the high. there will be resistance moving into december. because of the central bank action we are protected to the down side. we are in this range for the next couple of weeks. >> hope you have a great thanksgiving. >> i will see you after the holiday. >> tie, up to you. from my family to yours and to all of our viewers have a wonderful turkey day. happy thanksgiving. >> and the same to you and kenny. i know because we have both eaten at his house that the spread is usually pretty good there. >> thanks so much for joining us today and all year long. that will do it for this edition of "power lunch." >> we will hand it over to "street signs" which starts right about now. markets right now down only 2.75 points. we will see whether or not they can wrap it up in a nice turkey bow in the green. >> get home safe. it's nasty out there. we'll see you on friday. welcome to "street signs." we are on the edge of the most important opec meeting of recent years, a meeting saudi arabia says won't be difficult. what will be difficult, travel this holiday. we check in with the former continental boss. i'm very thankful that i get to stand on the side and ad judicat a debate. brian is off pi

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and the barrel is now squarely in opec's court. will decide whether to cut or not cut. oil dropping 30% in six months as we have been saying. now, though, to sue who made it over the hills and over the bridge. >> it was a slippery ride. today is the busiest travel day of the year. 46 million americans will be on the move. 3.5 million plan to fly to their thanksgiving destination. the big storm hitting the northeast is derailing some of those plans. phil lebeau is live at chicago's o'hare airport. first to kate rogers at new york's la guardia. >> reporter: we are just starting to see the weather start to shift to snow here at la guardia. we are noticing delays and cancellations on arrival and departure boards. we have more than 550 flights cancelled in and out of the u.s. we are nearing 2,000 flights being delayed. here at la guardia 130 flights cancelled. a lot of the passengers we have been speaking to here looking to get out ahead of the storm. >> we always book early flights on holidays. >> i definitely got up about an hour earlier because of it. >> reporter: another interesting thing we are noticing here. tsa security screening lines have been pretty short for now. so for the time being it looks like if your flight is on time that process is pretty painless for now. >> we are used to very travel days with a large number of passengers. we are used to these heavy travel days nationwide and staff accordingly at our airports all across the country to anticipate the flight loads. >> reporter: and as we have been noting for you throughout the day, delta, united, american airlines and southwest airlines all waiving fees that theytypically charge consumers to change flight times within a certain window of time. if you pass the window then you will incur extra fees. i know phil lebeau will break it down for what it means for the big picture industry. >> let's go to mr. phil lebeau at o'hare airport. what's it looking like out there? >> reporter: this is one of those rare days where it is very quiet and calm here at the o'hare american terminal. t 3 usually you see a lot of people around here. not today. it is relatively calm. i got two charts i want to show you because i think they speak to why we are in the sweet spot in the market and the year for the airlines. you take a look what is going on as far as returns for airlines our stats team crunched the number. you see the airlinestypically outperform when you look from now until the end of the year. that is why many are expecting we see the airline stocks continue to move higher. finally when you look at what is happening with oil prices relative to air fares we always hear people say air fares are going higher. in this case they are up 3%. tyler and sue, back to you. >> happy turkey day. we'll see you soon. despite the headaches expected today there are travelers who planned ahead and purchased insurance against travel disruptions. joining us on the phone is john noel. they launch air care this past may. it is flight protection coverage which can be purchased up to one hour before departure. welcome back. happy thanksgiving. tell us how much your sales have grown since the beginning of november. >> thanks very much. happy thanksgiving to you, as well. our sales are multiplying because we started small percentage wise thousands of percent. but what we are seeing is tremendous interest in the air care product from really all of o our -- >> at this point let's take a look at what you can cover if people purchase this 25 coverage per trip one hour before their flight. does that count on a day like today where we have had a weather incident predicted for some time that can still wait for an hour before their flight. what are the coverage levels? >> the restriction on the purchase is 24 hours prior to their flight. so those people who haven't purchased yesterday are kind of out of luck for today. in terms of coverage if an individual is delayed on the tarmac for two hours or more they are entitled to $1,000 payment which is deposited in their pay pal account immediately within seconds after the occurrence or into their checking account doing an electronic funds transfer. we pay $250 for missed connection and $50 for delay. $500 for delayed baggage up to 12 hours and $1,000 for totally lost baggage stolen, et cetera. >> and which of those things that you just outlined do you have to pay out on the most? >> let me say this, the travel delay is the most frequent claim that we have where travel delay is up to over two hours. the benefit that we pay is $50 and that is the most frequently used coverage. however, i do want to say that we like to call this plane side assistance similar to road side assistance which people travel in cars, we are offering service where we give customers 24 hour access to trained travel agents and specialists who help them with really any problem that they might incur as well as transportation in terms of limos, cars, taxis, trains, trucks, rental vehicles, we have rented trucks for people to get from one location to another. >> we have to leave it there. have a great holiday. nice to talk with you again. >> there you see washington, d.c. where it looks rather calm right there except in the capital dome. >> going to impact the northeastern u.s. on one of the busiest travel days of the year. let's look at how this is going to play out. using our computer model here a heavy area of snow across portions of upstate new york and pennsylvania right back into the appalachians. down along the i-95 corridor the separation point. you see the temperatures here remaining in the mid to upper 30s in places like washington, d.c. and new york. just inland from there very heavy snow falling throughout the afternoon and into the evening. that will continue. new york changes to snow later tonight. boston stays rain until the overnight hours and turns over to snow. before the system moves out pretty rapidly and thanksgiving day turns out to be nice and cold. washington, d.c. right in the city one to three inches. to the northwest of there as much as a half a foot of snow. new york one to three inches in new york. as much as eight inches a few miles inland. the jackpot boston three to five inches of snow with as much to a foot to a foot and a half inland. this is going to be a big storm for that thanksgiving eve holiday. crude is under pressure as oil ministers meet in vienna. saudi arabia says plunging oil prices will eventually stabilize and is in pushing for production cuts. reuters saying output cut is unlikely. steve sedgewick is in vienna with more. >> reporter: ahead of the biggest opec meeting in years. a day of meetings. i will be speaking to those who have had meetings not only with each other. they said they are getting closer to accord. that could mean no cut in production. despite the fact that many thought they needed to make a strong statement. it appears we are very much in plan b territory where instead of defending price they are trying to defend the market share. they have failed meeting with the likes in the last 24 hours where the russians and mexicans were unable to offer cuts on their part towards stabilizing prices. that would mean very much heavy lifting would have to fall on saudi and their allies. it seems saudi are looking to play a longer game and defend market share and perhaps not defend price at this moment. >> thank you very much. oil prices have plunged since roughly june. and that leads us to our next discussion. jim cramer sounded off on these plunging prices just yesterday. >> i think the supply and demand for oil are in balance right here in the low 70s. i think these prices, again, give or take $5 might be the correct prices for the market. we may truly be in equilibrium. if that is the case be prepared for the consumer to keep spending. >> let's bring in ron ensana. just think marty mcfly. you have supply and demand. no indication that really right now that there is going to be a big cut in supply. >> maybe not. >> or maybe none. demand relatively stable. >> maybe falling. >> india slowing down. japan may or may not be. hard to tell. the u.s. is holding up relatively well, tyler, but we are producing 9 million barrels a day. >> you make the argument we are the swing producers. >> if you look forward. the u.s. is in the seat here. fracking is not going away. some of the producers who engage don't seem to be too bothered by the falling prices. they are pumping deep water drilling in the gulf of mexico. mexico is liberalizing industry. more american technology going down there. there is a lot of oil. demand is flat to slightly down. >> maybe you see prices roughly stable or maybe a little lower. >> absent some kind of international shock. >> we had the islamic state. we have had russia and ukraine. throughout this entire period where there have been these hot beds the price has fallen throughout these events because supply is exploding and demand is flat to down. it is a big benefit for the u.s. consumer. >> let me turn you to economic numbers today. consumer spending among them. durable goods. >> durable is volatile. jobless claims still consistent with decent job growth. ten weeks in a row claims below. there is hiring in retail but shut downs in other manufacturing and energy operations. i wouldn't make anything out of this batch of numbers we got this morning. u.s. economy looks pretty good. 4.2% increase in travel year over year. >> whether or not it accelerates. >> consumption should be fine. >> we want to pick up on something you were talking about. watch shares today. they have taken a beating. they are right at session lows. this is a bermuda based. it said it will suspend its dividend payments amid a sharp decline in oil prices and shankshankz sanctions on russia. others are down in sympathy. when you have lost a fifth of market value it is a tough day for your investors. >> absolutely, it is. a second night of protests in ferguson, missouri and across the nation from new york to oakland. >> the snow is falling now in ferguson. will that cool the tensions here? and we'll have a closer look inside officer darren wilson's first public statements since the shooting of michael brown. that's all when "power lunch" continues. toothbrush... sweater... extra sweater... headphones, sleeping mask... oh, and this is the xfinity tv app. he can watch his dvr'd shows from where ever he wants. hey. have fun, make some friends. alright. did i mention his neck pillow? (sniffs pillow) watch your personal dvr library where ever you go. with the x1 entertainment operating system. it was another night of protests in ferguson, missouri and across the whole country. you are looking at demonstrations in atlanta, new york city, oakland, california. for the first time last night we heard from police officer darren wilson. scott cohn is live in ferguson. >> reporter: 44 arrests last night according to authorities. some of them felony charges but they also say some of the peaceful protesters actually helped police to try to calm down the tensions here. we will see as we get another night removed from the announcement of the grand jury decision. officer darren wilson has in fact broken his silence in an interview last night he talked about a number of things including the moment when he says michael brown turned to him and charged at him. listen. >> his right hand immediately goes into his waist band and left hand a fist and he starts charging me. >> what did you think when he saw that? >> even though he hadn't pulled something out earlier when he was confronting you. >> it was the unknown. >> reporter: there was a witness or person with michael brown. that was his friend who saw the whole thing and he also testified before the grand jury with a different version of where, of what happened outside the vehicle after the first shot he says went off. he says it's like this hand is up and this hand is down sort of. the prosecutor asks his hands were nowhere near his waist? it wasn't like he was wearing a belt. the fact is that we may never know exactly what happened that night and that may be part of why the tensions continue here in ferguson. >> thank you very much. live for us. mark morial, president and ceo of the national urban league. he was in ferguson, missouri yesterday and is back in new york today. he joins us now live from rockefeller center. mayor morial it is nice to have you with us. your reaction said you were incredibly disappointed. >> disappointed with the decision of the grand jury, certainly in strong support of those who wish to peacefully protest. we disassociate ourselves with anyone who would carry out violent acts against people, property or businesses. i think witnesses and viewers should understand there were over 100 protests last evening and the only place there was violence was in ferguson. those committing those acts of violence are criminals. they are people who are not, we think, consistent with those who want to peacefully protest the grand jury's decision. i might add, if a witness appeared before the grand jury and disputed the officer's testimony, that alone suggests that an indictment would have been warranted because the standard for an indictment is only that there is probable cause. i am disappointed in the entire grand jury process managed by the prosecutor attorney. >> that, mayor morial is what i wanted to ask you. one is entitled to be disappointed in the result of a grand jury or jury proceeding. lots of verdicts people don't agree with one way or another. you have a problem with the process that this grand jury went through and how it was led by the people who were presenting evidence. would you elaborate on that? >> from the very beginning there has not been -- and this is from people on the ground who know robert mccullough -- not a lot of confidence that he had intent on returning an indictment. typically a grand jury proceeding is trunicated and condensed. in this case the grand jury heard testimony from over 50 witnesses. the target of the grand jury investigation, darren wilson, testified for several hours and the prosecutor did not recommend -- this is important -- did not recommend a charge to the grand jury. typically the prosecutor sees the grand jury as it is as his tool and in every case the prosecutor suggests, recommends that there be an indictment if evidence is presented to a grand jury. this is not a question of guilt or innocence. it's not a question of proving beyond a reasonable doubt. it was also interesting to me that the announcement of the results of the grand jury came at 9:00 p.m. at night and that the prosecutor made a 20-minute presentation seeking to justify the actions of the grand jury. all of this is not what you wouldtypically see in the case of a grand jury investigation which is an early stage in a criminal proceeding. >> there is another nationwide movement gaining traction on twitter and in social media, #boycottblackfriday. we see it on twitter and facebook. will you be boycotting black friday? are you asking for other americans to do that? >> i think that is an individual choice. the national urban league is not joined in that call or in that cause. i think there will be many ways that people will choose to express their disappointment in the grand jury decision. >> mr. mayor thank you very much for joining us. we appreciate it. straight ahead the sector etfs that rally the most between thanksgiving and christmas. plus -- >> up next, a power pitch startup that pays to clear out cluttered closets. >> it is the leading online shop to buy and sell like new. >> will the panel call it a dud or will they be in? >> how do you make sellers happy? >> do you expect to continue to grow your customer base? >> stay tuned to vote with the power pitch panelists live. are you in or out on this week's startup? go to cnbc.com/vote right now and get ready to start voting. [ radio chatter ] ♪ [ male announcer ] andrew. rita. sandy. ♪ meet chris jackie joe. minor damage, or major disaster, when you need us most, we're there. state farm. we're a force of nature, too. ♪ we're a force of nature, too. you can bring back from a trip around the world. but you can't always bring back customer data. because many customers don't like it when their data moves around. can i go now? if you're going to do business globally, you need a cloud that can keep your data where it needs to be. today, there's a new way to work and it's made with ibm. i make a lot of purchases foand i get ass. lot in return with ink plus from chase. like 50,000 bonus points when i spent $5,000 in the first 3 months after i opened my account. and i earn 5 times the rewards on internet, phone services and at office supply stores. with ink plus i can choose how to redeem my points. travel, gift cards, even cash back. and my rewards points won't expire. so you can make owning a business even more rewarding. ink from chase. so you can. welcome back to "power lunch." shares of twitter are on the move. today the company is in talks to buy shots, a selfie application backed by justin bieber. sources tell cnbc that twitter is interested in shots because of a young user base. year to date twitter down about 35% but seems twitter could be looking to put in an acquisition and that may be one of them. time for the power pitch. entrepreneurs get 60 seconds to persuade a panel of experts that their company has what it takes to be the next big thing. >> i am the ceo of thred up. we solve two major problems. we help busy moms clean out closets and closets of their kids. we send you a prepaid bag. you fill it and leave it on your door step. we pick it up at your house. it is easier than giving things away. we take the items and buy them from you. we put them online at up to 90% off. we sell more than 25,000 brands across every major category. launched in 2010 we have raised $50 million. last year we sold almost 2 million items and recycled a million pounds of clothing. our mission has been to inspire a new generation of consumers. with our innovative clean out bag and online shop we are bringing that experience to thousands of moms every day. >> hi, we just heard the pitch for thred up. on set with us is founder and ceo of pantegrion capital and serves on the board of new york angels which has invested over $100 million in over 100 startups. also here is founder of red giraffe advisers. and in san francisco principle at forerunner ventures targeting digital commerce and includes birch box. thank you for joining us on the panel. james you will be in the hot seat. >> you mentioned you are doing 2 million items in sales last year. you recycled one million pounds of clothing with 150 people in your warehouse. as you grow and scale your business how can you manage these operations effectively? >> we build processes for people and systems to scale beyond one distribution center to multiple. we have hired an amazing team. the chief operating officer used to build out the netflix hubs. so we have the team in place to scale the business. >> it sounds like one of the big differentiation points is the idea of white glove services where you do everything for the seller to make some extra cash. at the lower price points are you able to make enough profit on a per bag basis to pay for the efforts you guys are doing to ship and process and list all of these item snz. >> based on the way we pay sellers based on price of items which ranges from 10% to 80% we are able to with the efficient systems we have put the items online and sell them at a profit. >> have you got another question? >> i would like to hear more about customer service. specifically, a lot of the people who have sold clothing had said that maybe the quality assessments of the clothing they sent in were consistent or they felt like they wanted their items back but were lost in your distribution center. how do you improve customer service? >> if you over emphasize the 1% of folks who are unhappy you miss the point. the point is 99% of people have an amazing experience and i think all startups have issues as they scale to ensure that they have integrity in the process. >> do you expect to continue to grow your customer base? >> the industry has been growing 7% year over year for the past decade. i think what we are seeing with customers which is a surprise to us is that almost half of our customers, the first time they bought a used item was on thred up. >> what have you done in terms of marketing and branding to really understand and capture this mom customer that you want to get? >> mom doesn't define herself just by the fact that she has kids. she is a vibrant woman who wants to look and feel great. >> we have heard what james had to say. we need to find out if the panel and you are in or out on thred up. >> i personally feel like this company is playing too close to a good will. there are a lot of businesses i would like to see disrupted but good will is not one of them. i'm out. >> i think the traction you guys have gotten is amazing. i am concerned as you grow the operations could be costly and difficult to scale and therefore i'm out. >> what about you? >> i'm really concerned about the struggles with trying to be a profitable business model playing at the lower end price points. it sounds like you have tried to reach enough scale that your operations are able to make that work. and so i'm in. >> so we have two outs and one in. james, what is your reaction? >> certainly we have lots of challenges. as we scale the business, but i think the proof is in the numbers. every day thousands and thousands of new customers sign up for thred up. >> best of luck to you. thank you for sharing our story. thanks to our panel today. our live voting is just about to close. thank you for your in or out and that is today's power pitch. >> let's check in on the bank market. rick santelli is at the cme. >> didn't we pack in the numbers in the option today all basically before noon eastern. if we look at the data and we look at the option you can see the seven didn't really show you major outcome. it was an average auction with 92 billion in supply out the door. let's look at a start to tens. wild session. wild sessions give you valuable information. the settlement was 214. and as this market starts to come down if we close here lowest yield close what you should be looking at is the bund versus tens. the widest in about 14 years. the chart you are looking at now is a one year chart. you add 150 for the spread and get the ten year yield. as yields go down in europe we will continue most likely to see the 1.50. let's look at a two-day of the dollar index. not many times you have two days down. it seems a little bit of profit taking. we are mostly close. do keep in mind due to weakness in other economies the dollar index is close to best levels since the summer of 2010. back to you and have a happy, healthy thanksgiving. >> right back at you, rick. thank you very much. 28 days now until christmas. that's not much time to get your shopping done but it is plenty of time for -- just what comes to my mind, sector etfs. that's what i'm thinking about dominic chu. >> if you are thinking about sector etfs with 28 days left we have a list of some of the biggest ones out there and which perform the best in that time between thanksgiving and christmas. all of that next on "power lunch." there's a difference when you trade with fidelity. one you won't find anywhere else. one-second trade execution. guaranteed. did you see it? 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(sniffs pillow) watch your personal dvr library where ever you go. with the x1 entertainment operating system. my 8 year old was filling out his request list for santa and he put on it, dear santa, i want a sector etf that outperforms between thanksgiving and christmas. that is what he asked for. he doesn't want aaron rodgers jersey. >> you just want something -- >> no madden 25. he wants sector etf. >> that is all fluff. this is real. we asked our partners. we said which ones do better. let's bring up the s&p. over the last ten years the s&p 500 on average during the holiday season between thanksgiving and christmas up about 2.5 and positive 9 out of 10 times. that's the santa claus reality. industrials, the third best performing sector etf out there, the xli up on average nearly 3.5%. it is positive nine out of the last ten holiday seasons. materials, cyclical, about 3.5%, as well. it is positive 90% of the time as well. and number one, the best performing sector etf in terms of the big brought sectors is health care sector up by nearly almost 4%. it's been up 10 out of the last 10 years. it is batting 1,000 with regard to what is happening. when you are looking at sector etfs we just took a handful of the broad sector ones. health care has done the best versus the market and has been up every year over the past ten. >> you are getting a lovely xlv for christmas. >> that's all you are getting. xlv. sue, down to you. >> guys, stocks are mixed ahead of thanksgiving. a drop for the dow. we are almost back to the green. if it was down today it would mark the first back-to-back losses since october 16. so where is the big money going between now and year end. michael far joins us. and mike holland, chairman of holland and company joins us. happy holidays, guys. nice to see you. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. michael, i'm going to start with you. dominic left off on the health care etf. health care is one of the areas you still like. >> it is. i think it makes a great deal. >> i'll be michael. >> you know what, that is true. you be michael. he is mike. michael, health care. >> i'm still feeling bad for mackey who is getting an etf for christmas. tell mackey i will send him a remote controlled something or other. >> send him a lemon pound cake. >> they are coming. we had over 40 all-time new highs on the dow so far this year. if the rule is to buy low and sell high and we are making consistent new highs this wouldn't strike one as a buying point. i think it is good to be defensive. i think health care is the right place to be and you saw the numbers on it. it makes a lot of sense. i also take a look at consumer staples, not so much the cyclicals and i probably look at industrials, too, as safer places in this kind of a market. >> and mike, what about you? do you still like the market at this point? because i interviewed somebody the other day who said i think we are a little overvalued in most sectors at this point. how do you feel about it? >> overall i remain somewhat optimistic about the u.s. stock market and also markets outside the u.s. in large part because of what the central banks continue to do outside the u.s. and are doing more of as we speak. i think michael farr's comments, sue, are well regarded with respect to you have things at highs. i have been selling a few things here and there. i am always prepared not only for a down side surprise but also an upside surprise. i think there is a possibility with companies like intel, apple, wal-mart their businesses continue to do okay. they are going to power this market to even more new highs as was describing. >> from both of you. mike i will stay with you. we have a lot of people who think volatility will increase considerably in the new year. do you fall into that camp? >> absolutely. i think we are learning history as we go along here with what the fed has done, they pulled away the qe. we have had a taste of it. i think while the market may be secularly up we have big surprises to the down side as well as the upside. >> michael, what about you? >> i would agree. look for volatility probably more after the first of the year because we have seen those long term trends do look higher. i looked at analytics calling for a higher end of the year. as we get into the new year you know the noise in washington is getting louder. and i think that you will see washington add volatility and we did see the trade off this year in february. you might see markets give back a little at the beginning. >> i hope both of you have a great thanksgiving. thanks for joining us. happy thanksgiving. cnbc's million dollar homes challenge is back. this time we are going home for the holidays. our reporters go back to their home towns. that looks nice. to see what $1 million buys you. you can vote on which home you think is the better buy right now. go to cnbc.com/vote. "power lunch" back in two. your old 401k is rolled over into a td ameritrade ira. yes! so no set up fees! wooh! yeah! so i get help from rollover consultants? wooh! yes! no rollover hassle. great. woah oh, we're spiking things, robbie. for all the confidence you need. that's better! td ameritrade. you got this. and i quit smoking with chantix. people who know me, they say 'i never thought you would quit.' but chantix helped me do it. along with support, chantix (varenicline) is proven to help people quit smoking. it gave me the power to overcome the urge to smoke. some people had changes in behavior, thinking or mood, hostility, agitation, depressed mood and suicidal thoughts or actions while taking or after stopping chantix. some people had seizures while taking chantix. if you have any of these, stop chantix and call your doctor right away. tell your doctor about any history of mental health problems, which could get worse while taking chantix or history of seizures. don' take chantix if you've had a serious allergic or skin reaction to it. if you develop these, stop chantix and see your doctor right away as some can be life-threatening. tell your doctor if you have a history of heart or blood vessel problems, or if you develop new or worse symptoms. get medical help right away if you have symptoms of a heart attack or stroke. decrease alcohol use while taking chantix. use caution when driving or operating machinery. common side effects include nausea, trouble sleeping and unusual dreams. i'm a non-smoker, that feels amazing. ask your doctor if chantix is right for you. this time we sent our reporters literally home for the holidays. two $1 million homes face off against one another. viewers, you decide the winners. get ready to vote by going to cnbc.com/vote. last round's winner, the secluded digs is taking on a new competitor. here we go. >> this -- with the solar panels you never have a power bill. just steps from the classic staircase and vaulted sealings rr is a kitchen so large it has two islands, two ovens, a large pantry and instant hot water, office, library, security, fire places throughout including one here in the master suite where there is also a closet big enough to live in and a completely remodelled bathroom. hidden away and close to everything like year round horseback riding and golf. yours for $999,000 mptd. this contemporary waterfront home is four stories tall. it spans 1.5 acres and you can enjoy the beautiful lakefront views from your private dock or one of two different decks. a mahogany front door leads to 5,000 feet of living space. cozy up in front of one of three different fire places and make your way to the gourmet kitchen and two wolf ovens to cook up family favorites. the spacious floor plan boasts five large bedrooms, one that is sound proof, 4.5 bathrooms, sun room, family room and a fully finished walk out basement equipped with the perfect holiday bar. just 15 minutes from here is a beautiful historic downtown, the scene of many civil war battles and great bars and restaurants. a spectacular lakefront home for the holidays, 999,9,90$999,900. >> keep voting. we see numbers tallying there. which one is the bigger bang for the buck? vote now. our real estate broker is here. secluded digs is in california. the lakehouse is? >> winchester, virginia. >> about an hour outside of d.c.ish. >> and kind of an area that's very secluded. the next house isn't so on top of you. >> in winchester. >> and jane says secluded digs roughly the same price. >> same size. >> same number of bedrooms. almost same amount of acreage. truly very similar houses. >> as you know the two markets, which one appeals to you most or might make one of these houses a better value? >> i think these are tough. these are really tough because -- and yet similar. contrasting but similar. i'm always going to be the coastal person so it is always the new york or the l.a., unfortunately, for me. and i would definitely go besides the fact that -- i would go with jane's house. >> jane is topless. we will show her baby pictures. >> look at that. >> jane is topless. that is why she won the last round. >> that is some very sexy lingerie. >> real estate porn here. >> there is brian sullivan on graduation day from one of the schools in my home state of virginia. you got a few seconds more to vote at cnbc.com. >> and now he has two babies. >> it's very nice. >> what were you saying? >> we need to go to the results here. >> we are at the results. >> you would pick the coast. >> yes. >> which is why they will pick the other, right? >> i guess people like the lake house. they like the feel of it. >> beautiful house, beautiful finishes. well done. >> the viewers have spoken there. and a topless wells couldn't pull it out. >> not this time. >> we'll be back to jane. the next matchup in our next hour on "street signs." >> i don't think that was the lakehouse winner. i think that was the wrong picture. maybe we were seeing the back of it. you will crown the ultimate winner during "closing bell." >> what would you have voted for? >> i probably would have voted for the california one. it is better weather right now. i like the fact that it had a pool and despite the fact that i grew up in virginia and i love winchester. apple capital of virginia. got to leave it there. >> thank you. i would have gone with the lakehouse. i grew up in california. as we approach black friday we want to know what are you planning on doing? are you in shopping in the stores or shopping online? are you doing both? or just staying away completely? having turkey leftovers? go to finance.yahoo.com and give us your vote. the dow has just turned positive by about 0.25 point. we are back in a moment. cute little guy, huh? this guy could take down your entire company. stay with me. on thursday a hamster video goes online. on friday it goes viral - a network choking phenomenon. why do you care? he's on the same cloud as your business. the more hits he gets, the slower your business may get. do you want to share your cloud with a hamster? today there's a new way to work. and it's made with ibm. welcome back to "power lunch." michael johnson exercised options to buy 750,000 shares of the company's stock in what the company calls a confidence in the future. skeptics point out the shares were sold right away to pay for the cost of buying the stocks and the resulting tax liability meaning the exercise happened without cash changing hands on options that were due to expire next month so interesting here that the herbal life stock is up here. two sides to that story. back to you. >> absolutely. thank you very much. let's take a look at what is happening during this hour of power. amazon near closing $1.2 billion deal to buy indian fashion site. shares of sea drill hitting session lows after the drilling contractor reported earnings that miss td estimates. and twitter higher after sources telling us that the social media company is in talks to by selfie app shots. in today's yahoo finance poll we asked what's your take this black friday? 5% of you say you are shopping in store. 11% say i'm only shopping online. 6% say i will be doing both. 78% say i'm staying away completely. that's what they say. let's see what is coming up on "street signs." >> i think i will stay away completely. ticktock to the opec meeting. we will ask an expert voice what he thinks. an awesome app for the budding wine commissure. and an out of the shark tank success story. there was no question she was the one. she reminds you every day. but your erectile dysfunction-that could be a question of blood flow. cialis for daily use helps you be ready anytime the moment is right. you can be more confident in your ability to be ready. and the same cialis is also the only daily ed tablet approved to treat symptoms of bph, like needing to go frequently or urgently. tell your doctor about all your medical conditions and medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, as it may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. side effects may include headache, upset stomach, delayed backache or muscle ache. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have any sudden decrease or loss in hearing or vision, or any symptoms of an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis for daily use and a free 30-tablet trial. then all the parts. come together, and there it is ... our new car! so, that's how santa fits it in his sleigh. wow ... wow. the magic of the season is here, at the lexus december to remember sales event. this is the pursuit of perfection. so if you get a trade idea about, say, organic food stocks, schwab can help. with a trading specialist just a tap away. what's on your mind, lisa? 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[ male announcer ] see how schwab can help light a way forward. so you can make your move, wherever you are. and start working on your next big idea. ♪ let's check the markets for you right now. the dow briefly moved into the green. it is down but only by about throw points. the s&p is up about 3.5 and the composite is the leader in terms of three major indexes. i was just hearing from kenny what he makes for thanksgiving. tell me what you feel about the market? >> it is very quiet. there is some disconnect in this morning's numbers versus yesterday. gdp revision was so strong. today you are not going to get a lot of action from the market just because it is the day before the holiday. i think we have tested 2,074 which was the high. there will be resistance moving into december. because of the central bank action we are protected to the down side. we are in this range for the next couple of weeks. >> hope you have a great thanksgiving. >> i will see you after the holiday. >> tie, up to you. from my family to yours and to all of our viewers have a wonderful turkey day. happy thanksgiving. >> and the same to you and kenny. i know because we have both eaten at his house that the spread is usually pretty good there. >> thanks so much for joining us today and all year long. that will do it for this edition of "power lunch." >> we will hand it over to "street signs" which starts right about now. markets right now down only 2.75 points. we will see whether or not they can wrap it up in a nice turkey bow in the green. >> get home safe. it's nasty out there. we'll see you on friday. welcome to "street signs." we are on the edge of the most important opec meeting of recent years, a meeting saudi arabia says won't be difficult. what will be difficult, travel this holiday. we check in with the former continental boss. i'm very thankful that i get to stand on the side and ad judicat a debate. brian is off pi

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