Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20140114 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch January 14, 2014

Todays winners. Take a look at some of the big names in biotech, staging a comeback. Biogen, among others, leading the nasdaq 100 higher and speaking of health care, you got to take a look at Intuitive Surgical. Intuitive surgical shares, the best performing stock on the nasdaq 100 after its preliminary Fourth Quarter revenue beat street estimates. Then switch over to tech, because tech is the best performing s p sector providing market leadership. Google, expedia, apple, yahoo broadbased gains in tech. Tech is a sector favored to move higher in a rising rate environment. Lastly, social media, those stocks have had a couple volatile days. We are seeing facebook, twitter among others posting gains. Sue . Thank you very much, seema. The trading action here, we are just off the highs of the trading session but the big event in todays trading session is two hawks on the fed are making comments. Richard fisher will make comments shortly but mr. Plosser has made some comments and is talking about perhaps aggressive moves on Interest Rates in the near future. I am very surprised this market has been able to hold on to its advances. Remember yesterday, there were comments as well from a more moderate feb member of the fomc. Future rate increases may have to be aggressive. Now, those are mr. Prossers words. He also said the tepid december jobs data was just one months data so they are viewing it, hes yug it as viewing it as statistical fluke. The main argument of the hawks is weve gotten as much as we can from qe. Nothing different, simply reiterating the position. I just want to note, we had a nice move to the upside right at the open, then sold off, they took some profits and the market didnt drop much. Thats one of the Things Holding the market up here. The overall market. With jpmorgan and wells fargo, we got Earnings Report exactly in line with expectations. It was remarkable because these are very hard to get right. Jpmorgan and wells fargo, the numbers in line. You can see very minimal moves in both those stocks as well as the rest of the bank earnings. Overall, we had a day where a lot of the beatenup sectors like commodity etfs did very well. We noted how weak the oil etfs have been like xop this year and steel and coal stocks, all of them like the xme as well, another group, all weak this year on concerns about china and lower oil rates, all of them doing a little better today. So a little bit of reversal. The volume has just disappeared. We had good volume yesterday. All of a sudden today, much weaker volume. We dont have a lot of selling, its easy for the markets to be on the upside. Thats right. Were up 82 points. Back up to e. C. And ty. Lets go and connect with phil lebeau, who is on the phone to fill us in on a developing story, two, in fact. One regarding boeing, the other regarding tesla. Phil, take it away. Your choice as to which you hit first. Reporter we will start with tesla. In fact, im standing right here at the tesla booth at the detroit auto show. Heres the story. Keep in mind that the recall that is driving the stock, this information is not new. In fact, we reported on it, many of us reported on it friday. Whats changed is that tesla has filed paperwork with the federal government saying the battery charger, the adapters in garages for tesla owners, they have done a Software Update and will be sending new adapters to owners. Tesla announced this on friday. They filed the paperwork with the federal government. It immediately went into the column of a recall. Tesla has come out and said this is not a recall, we are not telling people to bring their car into the shop. This is an over the air Software Update as well as a change with the adapter, as a result it shouldnt be considered a recall. That issue over semantics is part of the story, but the reason youre seeing the stock move higher today is a separate story. Tesla has announced that it is raising its guidance for the Fourth Quarter, that its revenue will be 20 higher than previously expected, and that sales and delivery of the model s in the Fourth Quarter will total 6900 as opposed to the previous guidance which was 6,000. Thats why you have shares of tesla moving higher in the midst of this debate over whether or not this is actually a recall from this information announced last week. As for boeing, the story here involves the 787 dreamliner. Another dreamliner has had an issue with the lithium ion battery. This time it was a Japan Airlines dreamliner that was parked at a gate, no passengers on board, nobody involved, but during a maintenance check, white smoke was discovered coming from the fuselage. There was a battery malfunction light that had come on within the plane. They saw that one of the eight cells in that lithium ion battery pack in the dreamliner had failed. Boeing is aware of this. Boeing is investigating what exactly happened, what caused this failure. Boeing is also pointing out, and they are correct in this fashion, the redesigned battery packs are made to ensure that there is not a larger fire and that if one of the cells malfunctions, breaks down, that you then have it contained. So those are the two stories we have been tracking. A busy day. Thank you very much, phil lebeau, from detroit. Hes at the auto show but covering boeing as well. Sue, lets resume with you at the nyse. Well be watching those two stocks as this session continues. First, lets get some advice for this market from the bull in the market, Jerry Castellini and a somewhat bearish craig columbus, chief Market Strategist at first allied asset management. I will start with you, craig, if i could. We spoke to you just shortly after thanksgiving and you had turned decidedly cautious on this market, and that was the correct call because we have had a very difficult start so far to this new year. But were also seeing some resilience in this market. Is it too soon for people to get back in . I think we can go higher, sue, but my concern was that many were underestimating the volatility that will come from transitioning simultaneously to new fed policy and new fed leadership at the same time, and i still have that concern. Jerry, you are still bullish. How much more do you think this market has in it, and what are the characteristics of any further advance going to be . First of all, the market has a lot longer to go. By most measures, we are still midway through the Economic Cycle and it gives us a lot of earnings underneath us to drive the market, maybe even 20 higher this year. The big difference, though, this year is going to be the type of names that youre going to need to look at. Last year it was very defensive driven. It was dividend and share purchase names. This year, youre going to see an explosion in growth names. Thats the exciting part. Thats the part of the market cycle that most investors enjoy the most because youre back to names that have unique stories. Thats what we havent yet seen. Its really exciting. So craig, jerry is very excited, hes given us some places to play this market. Where would you be deploying cash . I think you can be opportunistic and i agree, i like tech and industrials a lot. I think we have an aging durable goods stock and capex tracks ism manufacturing very closely with a lag. We have seen the manufacturing pick up. Now we should see the cap ex pick up as well. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Appreciate it. Ty, up to you. Thank you very much. Opportunities present themselves, it says right here, in many ways. Dominic chu and sarah eisen have been talking to several analysts today and have been waiting patiently for hours for this, right . They just arrived on set. About how the minimum wage is rising and how that could affect certain stocks and sectors. Sarah, you are up. The last time we saw minimum wage hikes, which sectors moved for the better . Well, consumer names and low income consumer names in particular. First, we should talk about the minimum wage hikes. Its happening across 14 different states in 2014. We are not seeing any action from congress or the federal government, but the states are taking this issue on on their own. If you look at which states are actually moving here this year, some of the most populous states, california, new york, new jersey is seeing the biggest in terms of percentage have to pay more for traffic control. Yes, perhaps thats part of it. Seriously, this could affect business. We have an analyst at rbc that covers these Consumer Staples who says look toward Tobacco Companies that could get a boost from this, Beer Companies and energy drinks. He says these are the companies specifically that tend to boost when the low income earner has more money in their pocket to take home. Those are some industries to watch here. It is a hot button issue. Its a political hot potato. Thats why perhaps we havent seen any traction federally since back in 2009. Just today, a group of prominent economists weighed in, including seven Nobel Laureates saying minimum wage increase, they are talking about at the federal level, could have a small stimulative effect on the economy and for this reason, low wage workers spend their additional earnings providing some help on the job front as well. You know, though, you have been following this issue, many economists would disagree. Theres a counter argument there. But look, the states are doing it and that will be a good place to see the evidence on business and the economy. I know someone standing right over there who would make that counter argument, michelle carusocabrera. She will join us in a moment. Thats a whole other debate. But you will take us down a little deeper and look at individual names. Sara mentioned the rbc capital markets. No relation to seema. May be some kind of distant capacity. Check this out. Nick mody says the biggest beneficiary in the increase in low income income is their top tobacco pick, lorillard, americas biggest maker of menthol cigarettes. He says they generate a meaningful portion of sales and profit from new york and california, where Tobacco Consumption is highest and they are getting that increase in minimum wage. Other ways to look at increase in income is the tradeup effect, the substitution effect. Consumers get more cash and spend it on relatively higher priced premium products. Mark schwartzman has mentioned this in the past with traditional carbonated sodas or juice to water products, often coca cola or pepsi already have products people would trade up to, like going from diet pepsi to trop 50. You can take that logic, apply it to other parts of the market so do folks buyer lower priced beers, do they end up trading up to a budweiser or coors, even corona or becks . Constellation brands have the distribution rights. On the restaurant side of things, it could mean folks that dine at burger king trade up. Think applebees or maybe chilis or even an olive garden or red lobster owned by darden restaurants. With sara, those concepts take effect kind of like what the economists were saying in their letter to president obama and the administration. Isnt there an argument to the other side here that while lower income people might see some income boost, and they would spend more on Convenience Foods and so on and so forth, that some of those very providers of those products would be hurt because they would have labor Cost Increases . Good point. When you talk about this minimum wage and the impact on business, usually you hear the negative impact on some of the big fast food companies. Labor costs. Mcdonalds, because the labor costs are going up, it will make it very difficult. Two companies to watch actually could be, and you look at geographical exposure, monster beverage in california, Cheesecake Factory in california. When you have a great portion of the income in sales coming from california, and you see their minimum wage going up from 8 to 9 in july, that could hurt those companies. Cheesecake factory has great portions. Lets make that clear. Some said i looked like babe ruth last night. I think thats a compliment. Swing for the fences. I had a better year than babe ruth. All right. Higher mortgage rates, tight credit, weaker than expected demand for housing pushed Mortgage Origination volume down at the end of 2013. That has bankers revising their estimates down for 2014. Diana olick is covering the story from washington. Reporter wells fargo, the leader by volume in home loans, saw a 60 drop in originations in q4 from a year ago. They did 50 billion in originations in the quarter. Jpmorgan not much better, down 54 to 35 billion in originations. Both were down on an annual and quarterly basis. Refinance volume has been hit the hardest thanks to the higher rates but mortgage purchase applications have also been way down, off 16 last week from the same week a year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers association. Now, the mba today lowered its 2014 forecast for originations by 57 billion to 1. 12 trillion for the year. Its not just the refis. They lowered their purchase originations by 34 billion to 677 billion. They cite not just higher rates but those new lending rules we keep talking about. Of course, lots more online. Sue . Lets go back to dom with the market flash. We have to talk about Intercept Pharmaceuticals moving again, this time down another 32 . You need a steel stomach if you want to invest in this stock. Its been a roller coaster. Last week it gained 550 on positive data for its treatment of a Liver Disease in a midstage trial but its also been falling ever since news came out that cholesterol levels may have been raised in that trial, so if you want to invest in Intercept Pharmaceuticals, you got to be ready for what could be a very big roller coaster ride. Sue, back to you. Thank you very much. French president Francois Hollande facing the fire in paris today. Michelle is monitoring. He is fighting a lot of fires. He sounded like a red meat republican capitalist today. I will tell you what he said about the affair after the break. Sue, back to you. Also on the radar today, big news on an army of cyberfighting stocks. Is this an opportunity for you and your money . Well talk about that. Theres a saying around here, you stand behind what you say. Around here you dont make excuses. You make commitments. And when you cant live up to them, you own up, and make it right. 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Leading the index higher, regeneron, which will report about 1. 4 billion in u. S. Sales of its high profile eye drug for the year. Its ceo saying theres lots of room for future growth. Also Intuitive Surgical which issued fiscal year guidance above street estimates and Jabil Circuit which was added to the buy list. Tyler . Frances president Francois Hollande facing le media today amid a firestorm surrounding his private life, claims of an affair with an actress. Michelle . Thats good. The french president says quote, private matters should remain private to a crowd of some 600 french and foreign journalists who gathered at the palace in paris, which just wrapped up five minutes ago. Those comments came during a more than two and a half hour News Conference which was supposed to be about hollandes new economic plan for france. In fact, the french president talked about cutting taxes and cutting red tape. Big news in and of itself for the socialist president. That, he did for the first 50 minutes of the event but when the q a started, the very first reporter question was about this woman, the status of valerie thrierweiler. She lives with him, has an office, a chauffeur and advisor all at taxpayer expense and the question was simple. Is valerie thrierweiler still the first lady of france. Hollande says private matters should remain private and this is neither the time nor the place to answer these questions. However, he also said he will clarify her status before a planne

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