Simon is my partner today down at the nyse. Hi, simon. Hello, sue. We have a moving situation on the floor here at the new york stock exchange. We were down about 180 points on the dow. Were rapidly coming back now. Apparently on a New York Times report that suggests that House Speaker boehner is willing now to go back into negotiations with the white house, with obama, in order to end that threat, yk, that we have not just on the debt of the United States, the debt ceiling, but clearly day three now of the Government Shutdown. Most major assets are in negative territory. The one standout are treasuries which you might say perhaps ironically are rallying, and therefore the yield on the tenyear has come down to 2. 6 , more or less, 2. 6 . Gold is down. Oil is down. As you can see. The big reason for that, obviously, are these two deadlines, the debt ceiling and the Government Shutdown. Lets bring in Steve Liesman for more on that. Steve. Thank you, simon. I want to separate whats known, what we think is possible, and what is likely here. Lets begin with what is known. Once you hit the debt ceiling, spending has to hit revenue plus cash on hand. Which means Government Spending will decline by about onethird. Thats about 108 billion. The result, the economy contracts. Okay. Now, whats probable here . A recession. Most economists think if you do that and do that for any extended period of time, the economy will go into recession. The dollar could decline. The stock market could decline. Interest rates may indeed surge. What is possible here . A global recession as the treasury warning today in a very, very strident report about the possibility of global spillovers and a massive disruption in financial markets. It looks to me, simon, as if the market is coming to the conclusion that this thing may not end quite as nicely as the last time around. Nicely being an advised word there. It wasnt plechblt, but it did end well. Theres a possibility that this brinksmanship gets spilled over into serious market trouble here. Or not. Maybe theyre back to the table and its not all about obama care and they can do a deal. Lets bring in bob and abigail. Abigail, technically where are we on these markets . The major indices have been sending troubling, even alarming technical signals for some time. Investors clearly do not like this uncertainty of the Government Shutdown, but really its the debt ceiling and the pocket that if it is not raised, that we could go into this unprecedented catastrophic effect. Whats interesting to me about it is that ive been doing work since june calling it a 2011style correction, 20 . Weve had a sideways range all year. In 2011 this resolve to the down side, 20 correction on the debt ceiling debate right when it was resolved. So even though it was positive then, it still was in negative conclusion for stock markets. Bob, i want to bring in dominic chu. Those Government Shutdown worries in addition to Everything Else are part of the market decline today. Its playing out specifically in the defense stocks. Two of the three worst performers in the dow industrials today, Aerospace Giants boeing and united technologies. Boeing said jetliner deliveries could be delayed. Utx said furloughs will commence starting on monday. So overall, those contractors, lockheed martin, general dynamics, ray ththeon moving, making it the worst performing sector in the s p 500. Back to you. Lets pick it up with bob pisani. The treasury report reference was unusually apocalyptic. Let me show you some of the words they used. They used the word catastrophic twice in the report. They said it was unprecedented. They called it a selfinflicted wound and the economy could plunge into a recession worse than any seen since the great depression. It could last for a generation. President obama said the markets ought to be a little more worried. I think this was part of the message he was trying to put out there today because that certainly got a lot of peoples attention. Unusually strong language. Unless you believe, as we always did, that there was a strong dollar policy and the job was to actually to convince people that everything will be okay. This is in a market sense, this is pure politics, isnt it . I dont know that thats the case. This is such an unknown. As Lloyd Blankfein said, the shutdown has a precedent. The debt ceiling, there is no precedent. We dont know the effect. Whats important for investors at home, to remain even despite this bad the point here is the assumption is they never get to a default. Because at the end of the day, they bang their own Heads Together and they do a deal. Thats the point, isnt it . I think thats a bad assumption, actually. Really . Well, if they cant come together on the Government Shutdown over obama care, who knows if theyll be able to get there over the debt ceiling. I dont know that we should assume that would be the case. And in 2011 even with they came to an agreement, we still had this massive 20 to 30 correction. The breaking news, weve got to go. The breaking thuz is thnews is boehner is going back to the table. Sue, back to you. Were following that stilldeveloping story. We have seen the markets better their position when that times headline came out. A sideshow to the debt debate is can wall street get along with the white house . Cnbc had two key exclclusive interviews on that topic. What do you make of this moment where you were here last week negotiating on a major settlement for jpmorgan and now today youre here to talk to the president about a political matter . Is that awkward timing . No, not for me. Is it for the white house . I doubt it. Any awkwardness around having jamie dimon in and asking him to help with that effort at the same time hes been this discussions with your attorney general about his banks legal issues . Well, keep in mind, this was the Financial Services group. I talked to the Business Roundtable a while back. Im going to talk to any ceo and any company in america about why this is important. So is the white house and jamie dimons relationship a metaphor for the rest of wall street and the white house . Are they friends or enemies . Maybe a little bit of both. Eamon and josh are both here on the hill. Sh jo, what do you make of this . The president says eat reach out to any ceo in america about why this is important, but the timing did, as eamon suggested in his interview, seem a little awkward. Well, its probably less awkward than having to deal with a recession caused by the default. So the degrees of awkwardness, this is way less awkward than that. And its important to remember that their interests are emerging at this moment on getting the government reopened and ensuring that we continue to pay our bills. It was interesting, eamon, that all of the ceos that appeared on our air took great pains to say that these were not political discussions. These were discussions about the process and how they could help move the process along. Was that your read as well . Yeah, absolutely, sue. They dont want to be seen as being drawn into any particular partisan ideology here. They want to be seen as sort of highminded wall street types who are coming down here to washington to tell these guys to straighten themselves out. But i do want speaking of straightening things out, i do want to go back to this New York Times story if i can, that the market is reacting to right now. I want to tell you that the New York Times is sourcing this all to one anonymous house republican. What the times is saying is boehner has told colleagues that he is determined to prevent a federal default and is willing to pass a measure through a combination of republican and democratic votes. That according to the New York Times according to one house peb that they have talked to. Clearly that is the type of outcome, if that holds up, if that turns out to be true and can be sourced to a broader did he grier of sources here, thats the type of outcome that these wall street chieftains would have liked to have seen yesterday. Thats why they came here. Josh, handicap how you see this proceeding in light of that latest development. Well, thats a Huge Positive sign because were seeing the limits to which Speaker Boehners willing to go on this. Before that, what we saw was that House Republicans did not want to necessarily work with House Democrats in sorting through the shutdown based on the parliamentary procedures they used. If theyre willing to work with the democrats to avert a default, thats a good sign. We now know the limits that we hadnt seen before. Sploo but does it, eamon, appease those of the tea party who have peg it had all to the Affordable Care act . No, this could cause a problem with boehner with the tea party. If hes working with the democrats, that violates the hastert rule to pass your key pieces of legislation on major issues. This would be boehner saying to the tea party, look. Weve gone absolutely to the wall on this. Were not going to default. Im not willing to go there. A shutdown is one thing. A default is auto entirely a different thing, and im willing to change my tactics here. Ive got an email into boehners spokespeople to find out if theyre willing to say this on the record or say this in public. Fantastic. But the times is saying he he said this privately. We got to bear that out a little before we leap to too many conclusions. But if it holds, up, it would be dramatically different. Well let you go and work on that. Its interesting, the timing of that statement if, indeed, it is a legitimate one, it came not so long after the treasury came out with its projections of what would happen to the economy if, indeed, we did default. Good point. Gentlemen, thank you very much. Appreciate it. Syme, down to you. Ahead in the show, sue, this country overtakes russia as the Worlds Biggest Oil and gas producer. Are we now Energy Independent, and what does it mean for the stars and stripes . And one more important question for this country, how should you invest on profit from the new Energy Economy year . Does the shutdown affect your vetting of the fed nominee in. This is one of the most important appointments i make other than the supreme court. So no, the shutdown is not slowing down the vetting. Its important for us to make sure that were investing in the things that are going to help the economy grow. This constant governing crisis to crisis. We have to stop doing that. Are you going to watch that ticker as we get closer and many a market thats down, pvh is moving higher, up over 3 on the session. The Apparel Company behind big brands like Tommy Hilfiger and calvin klein agreeing to sell its gh bath shoe brand to clothing maker giii for 50 million. Trading at an alltime high. The man believed to have directed irans Cyber War Department is dead. Irans Republican Guard said he disappeared after leaving for work a few days ago and was found with two bullets in his heart. Since 2007, five Iranian Nuclear scientists have been killed. In this case there are reports the killing may have been part of an internal iranian dispute, but its also, of course, possible that someone outside of iran was behind that killing. In the last few years, irans been accused of carrying out numerous Cyber Attacks against Saudi Arabias Energy industry and also, of course, against american banks. 40 years ago, arab nations began an oil embargo against the United States. 5 30 in the moring, there are always 30, 35 cars waiting. In an hour and a half, theyre out of gas again for the today. 90 of southern californias gas stations were closed today. But check out the headline today in the wall street journal. U. S. Is overtaking russia as largest oil and gas producer. So has the u. S. Finally achieved Energy Independence . Dan pickering is copresident at energy investment. We also have carl larry, president of oil outlooks and opinions. Dan, let me start with you. Give me the big umbrella look at where we stand now in terms of our Energy Independence, specifically our oil and gas output. Sure. Our output now is about 22 Million Barrels a day. Equivalent, a little more than half of that is natural gas. The rest of it is oil. Its a pretty remarkable recovery in Oil Production from just a few years ago driven primarily by shale. So were importing about 8 Million Barrels a day still. But dramatic improvement from about 13 Million Barrels a day a few years ago. Is it independence, though . I mean, i guess its a fine point, certainly, but do you agree with those who say that we have now technically become Energy Independent . I dont really think its fair to say were Energy Independent yet. Were still importing almost 8 Million Barrels a day. Even though 3 Million Barrels a day comes from our neighbors, ne mexico and canada. Were certainly less dependent than we have been. All right. What if we partnered in a more aggressive way with, say, canada . Would that change the equation dramatically . I dont think its a dramatic change. I mean, were still were still importing a lot of oil. And even working with canada as we have been doing for the past decade, were still, i think, going to fall several Million Barrels a day, three, four, five years from now. So i think that the issue is becoming less dependent and certainly less dependent on opec and overthewater crudes is certainly a good thing for Energy Security and generally for the u. S. Consumers. I was going to say, obviously this is kind of a win for the consumer. Absolutely. So were certainly lowering the volatility of our oil and gas prices and what that translates to is less volatility at the pump, hopefully. And certainly on the natural gas side, weve basically created a manufacturing renaissance here over the last few years that is going to hold us in good stead as we push ahead. Carl, let me turn to you now, if i could. Dan, thank you so much. Sure. Which companies do you think can benefit or are well positioned to benefit from what dan just laid out for us . And do you agree with what he laid out . Well, i agree with him, definitely, but one of the things that weve not had before is that were exporting a lot of product, thats gasoline and diesel and jet fuel to the rest of the world. So one of the big benefits people that are beenity iffing right now are the refiners. Something like phillips 66, psx, theyre a good stock. They use a lot of the light sweet crude were using from shale and getting a lot of product from out on the water. Its not so much were not importing as much anymore. Its also that were exporting more and making money off that. Sfwoo wh what about the big integrated oil . You mentioned phillips 66, but what about some of the other big integrated Oil Companies . Are they well positioned at this point . Some of them have had quite a run. Would you consider adding any of those to your portfolio . Well, sure. The thing here with the integrated Oil Companies is that theyre making money on the domestic oil that theyre producing. But theyre also making a lot more money id say about 5, 6 more on a barrel thats being produced elsewhere in other countries thats getting shipped out there. So those are good opportunity, too. Obviously were going to see money from refining, but Oil Production that goes elsewhere, thats going to help them out, too. All right. Thank you so much, carl. Appreciate it. Dan, thank you as well. Thanks, sue. All right. So lets take a look at an oil chart right now and see how things have been going. Dominion resources is down at 62. 09 on the trading session. And the last gain in terms of percentage moves was about 19 points. Thats one energy stock thats been doing very well this year. Incidentally, mad money man jim cramer has a big interview with the companys ceo, dominion ceo tom farrell tonight at 6 00 and 11 00 p. M. Eastern time. Always entertaining, simon. Mad money, dont miss it. A video showing a tesla car on fire, sending the stock down big. We just spoke to the fire chief handling the investigation just a short while ago. See what he says happened next. Plus, day three of the Government Shutdown. Fears now turning, as youve heard, to the debt limit. The treasury saying that a default would trigger a financial crisis and recession worse than 2008. Well speak with one of president obamas top exec advisers as, of course, it is reported that House Speaker boehner is more willing now to do a deal. Americans take care of business. They always have. They always will. Thats why you take charge of your future. Your retirement. Ameriprise advisors can help you like theyve helped millions of others. Listening, planning, working one on one. To help you retire your way. With confidence. Thats what Ameriprise Financial