Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20130903 : comparemela.com

CNBC Power Lunch September 3, 2013

Vodafone, did shareholders just get the deal of the century, and what does that mean when it comes to shaking the giant Global Corporate money tree . All of that is straight ahead. Tyler continues on vacation and simon is down at the nyse. Hi, simon. We were up about 118 points shortly after the open. Clearly weve now erased that as weve gone through the session overall. Lets check the figures and see where we are. Its negative 17, as you can see. Nasdaq slightly higher and s p slightly higher. Russell still hanging on to some gains. The tenyear treasuries today are slightly lower. Therefore, the yield is ticking higher, partly because the data is good and also because theres no firing in syria. Gold has resumed its upward trend, as you can see up 7 in a month and were also higher on oil. Were showing the brent, quote, there, on wti we lost three or four bucks last week so thats the bigger picture. Lets bring in Mary Thompson for more on how weve traded down here on the floor of the nyse. Mar . Reporter things looked so good when we came in this morning, positive manufacturing data overseas and better manufacturing data here in the u. S. And all the deal flow giving a lift to the markets early on. 11 30 things went south when you had the european close and then House Speaker john boehner saying he would support the president if he can d go ahead with the air strikes against syria, so that caused the dow to come o. Take a look at the tenyear as well because that was trading above the 2. 91 area. It came off as well on those those comments as people were looking for a safe haven, and take a look at oil because it, too, turned around on this, so all of this basically disrupting the markets rally that we saw earlier today. Of course the other positive factor that had been underlying the markets and maintaining them to some extent is all the deal flow, most notably the deal announced between verizon and vodafone. Both of those stocks lower today, but overall the tone was certainly better. I should also note that volume today has been higher than it has been in the past couple of weeks. Not surprising since people are back from vacation. We were rock bottom. We were. We were rock bottom so were seeing stronger volume today. Whisper it quietly. Seema, how do things look at the nasdaq. A volatile week for the s p tech sector. Much of that has to do with rising geopolitical tensions in syria, as mary just mentioned, though tech shares at the moment are higher, even though microsoft shares are down on the announcement of the deal to buy nokias handset business. A lot of the tech names that offer networking capabilities and do business with nokia though, i should mention, are moving higher at the moment. Blackberry shares also on the move, rising optimism on the street that it, too, will get acquired, though its just trader speculation, but shares are back above 10 a share, and lastly apple issued an official invitation for its september 10th event. Theres speculation on the street that the company will unveil perhaps a new iphone. Shares up about 1 . Simon and sue, back to you. Seema, thank you very much. Lets broaden the conversation on the markets right now, simon and Kenny Polcari and in tillie chief investment strategist billstone joins us. Bill, ill start with you. As we go into the latter part of this year, do you still remain positive on equities as you were previously . I do. I think you have to. Even though youll hear all the noise and maybe today is the perfect example around syria and, you know, we obviously have taper talk, well have discussion around the debt ceiling, but at the end of the day, if your view is that things are actually getting better, and i think when you actually look at the economic data, it certainly wouldnt point you to think that corporate profits are going to fall out of bed, i think the valuation is there, and i think thats where you want to be. You are a pessimist, ken . Im a pessimist in the short term, and weve been talking about it and towards the end of this career and into 2014 well see strengthening economics, not only in this country but as well around the world so i would agree in the longer term, yes, but i do think september and october will be volatile months. They tend to be anyway. You know, fiscal debate, the end of the fiscal year, the debt ceiling debate and the fed, you know, the whole constant tapering talk which continues to dominate. Just on the subject, what you actually quite often hear is just get on with it with the tapering because its purgatory. It is purgatory and, therefore, thats what people want. As much as they say they have been clear, the fact is the market is still not clear on what the market is. I still dont believe its a september event. I dont think the september is going to be the event. I think it will be a november, kind of a late october, november event if it happens, because the data runs contrary to everything that ben bernanke and only ben bernanke has been saying. Everybody else has been speculating that september is going to be the month. Bill, does it matter to you whether or not the taper goes into place in september, october, november . How have you kind of handicapped that event, and how has it influence the your ability to allocate capital . You know, i dont think in the end it really matters. I mean in, one respect i would agree with the whole part like lets just get it over with because it does seem to disturb the market at times. It does look like the market is dealing with it a little bit better lately. Isnt necessarily that good news is bad news anymore, at least the way we started today anyway, so i guess i it doesnt much matter in some respects. It will be interesting obviously to see what happens with payrolls at the end of the week. Maybe that gives us another clue as to whether they taper. Certainly the recent, you know, pmi data, whether here in the u. S. Or even overseas certainly leads you to believe that maybe youve got to edge back towards september a little bit again. Hes calling your bluff, kenny. I think you have to Pay Attention to fridays number, only because its the big number everybody is looking for, but Pay Attention to once again parttime versus fulltime jobs, which one is growing better . Our parttime jobs really going to be enough to get this economy going, and i dont think thats going to be the answer and thats what we have been seeing of late is a growth of parttime jobs, versus higher paying fulltime jobs that carry the health care mandate. Bill, what about the syria situation . You know, its certainly its developing, needless to say and may take some time to finalize the president s plans or to change the president s plans. Does that matter to you . Does the altercations in syria impact the way you put your money to work . I think in the sense that you certainly have to expect maybe more volatility because of the geopolitical risks, not that they are not always there, but certainly this seems to be hanging a little closer. I think though to take a step back, you know, will what happens in syria really change the trajectory of what goes on in the economy and the markets in the longer run . It certainly doesnt seem so. I mean, certainly the worry is that it spreads on to other parts of the region, but in and of itself, you know, it doesnt seem to be that big of a change. So unless it became a larger regional a larger regional conflict might change your opinion but not near term . Yes, because i i think you have to think about the fact that does it real change the math on things, and i dont think it does yet, and we dont think it will. All right. Do you think at all though that the that the that the situation really explodes the way that assad has already said that the whole middle east, theres just a fight waiting to explode and any action by the u. S. Is just going to ignite that flame and then i think it becomes a very different story. All right. Gentlemen, thank you very much. We appreciate it. All right. Lets do a little analysis. Its monday, so we always analyze the analysts, and here to help us do had a is cnbc contributor abigail doolittle. Shes in new york. Good to see you again, abigail. Thanks for having me, sue. Lets start out with dean foods, Goldman Sachs downgrading dean foods to knew at all from buy on, quote, reduced earnings visibility. Lets take a look at the stock chart. The stocks performance, fallen 15 over a onemonth period of time, 16. 33 . What do you think, abigail . I agree with goldmans downgrade here. Probably a 15 stock by the end of this year. The Company Recently lost its walmart private label contract, and as goldman suggested this reduces earnings visibility. Investors love certainty until theres more clarity about the earnings picture over the next couple of quarters this, stock is set to slide. All right. Lets move on to another downgrade. Williams sonoma downgraded, basically amid ongoing margin pressure of ive been doing my best, abigail, to help out their earnings. I have to tell you. My husband lives in fear what when that catalog comes home. Right now our sixmonth chart shares are up nearly 25 . Do you agree with the call or not . You know, this is another one, sue, i agree. The stock has had a Beautiful Run this year, up more than 44 at its peak. Now i think its going to cool off. Technically it looks set to move down into a range somewhere between 42 and 52. Analysts the analysts who downgraded this name cited reduced Gross Margins and the idea that the company was going to have to spend more on profits marketing the company against competing pressures, so i just think that this stock is set is totoslide. Would i take profits. All right. They might have to have a sale and i might have to attend, you never know. Me, too. Green mountain coffee downgraded from neutral to buy, quote, relauch at any time to recommend new money at current levels. Thats according to suntrust. Take a look, the stock is up over 250 since november of 2012. Look at that chart. What do you think . This may come as a surprise to some of our viewers but i disagree with this call. I think this analyst will be early. I think that Green Mountain roasters could be 100 to a 110 stock over the next three to six months. However, over the long term, over the next 12 to 24 months this analyst will absolutely be correct in my view. I think that this is a 20 stock. Maybe they hit operational real headwinds or maybe they dont receive one of the partnerships investors are looking for, so right here i would not go long or short, but i think there is a little bit more upside for the real traders out there. For the very shortterm trader. Abigail, always a pleasure. See you soon. Thank you. If youre a Time Warner Cable customer, congratulations, cbs is back. The two came to an agreement last night after cbs was off their systems for 32 days. Time warner and cbs both, you can see, doing well. The deal clearly has implicationed potentially for other players. Comcast, owner of this network, its shares are slightly higher and cablevision, direct tv and dish network, there you are. You see Julia Boorstin is live in l. A. With more of the deal, the future and what happened, julia, to force cbs and time warner ultimately over the hump. Reporter well, what really happened, simon, all comes down to one word, football. The cable giant was feeling the heat ahead of the start of the allimportant nfl season this weekend and then the fall tv season two weeks after that. Threatening to draw subscribers to other services. Now, deal terms were not revealed, but the companies statements indicate a clear win for cbs, Ceo Les Moonves saying the Company Maintains the ability to maintain our content Going Forward on all the new developing platforms. Cbs came out on top and even intel is tet stoet launch a streaming Service Later this year and for those unwilling to cut the bundle, and on demand content that hit a new 52week high today as well as hulu and should see more digital alternatives to cable down the line. For instance, google had recent talks with nfl by potentially offering football on youtube so a lot of different options to watch. Sue, over to you. Julia, thank you very much. The president meeting with lawmakers ahead of a vote on syria next week. This is one time where the rank and file probably cant be whipped into voting one way or the other. Its literally life and death. We have two members next. See which way they are going to vote in two minutes time as power lunch continues. And built a strong reputation in the industry. I set goals and worked hard to meet them. Ive made my success happen. So when it comes to my investments, im supposed to just hand it over to a broker and back away . Thats not gonna happen. Avo when you work with a schwab financial consultant, youll get the guidance you need with the control you want. Talk to us today. Nas what the capital of syria, damascus, looks like today. The people in the heart of the capital say its like living in a bubble because they dont see the war every day. This next video, however, is just a few miles outside of the center of the city, and heavy fighting between the rebels and syrian army loyal to Bashar Al Assad is occurring. While they fight the uss nimitz and its battle group are positioning themselves closer to syria just in case they are called upon to support the ships already lined up in the mediterranean. A u. S. Strike may depend on a vote in Congress Next week so we have two members of the house ready to go. Well start with representative michael burgess, a texas republican. I received information over the weekend and i have to tell you im not there. No one in my district is asking for this action and, in fact, people in the district, northern part of texas have been quite outspoken that they dont want this to happen. Look, the strategy, at least as it has been outlined to me is missing something, that is, what happens the day after . You launch cruise missiles and degrade runways around damascus, okay, great, weve taught him a lesson, but what about the day after . You still have the president of syria in charge, and he still controls the chemical weapons at his disposal so you really havent changed the equation other than making him more desperate in the days ahead. Lets listen to this bite from the president as he makes his case for military intervention. There are certain weapons that when used cannot only end up resulting in grotesque deaths but also can end up being transmitted to nonstate actors, can pose a risk to allies and friends of ours like israel, like jordan, like turkey, and unless we hold them into account also sends a message that International Norms around issues like Nuclear Proliferation dont mean much. What is your reaction to the president . Well, look, if the intelligence was that these weapons existed in syria for some time, and i assume that that is accurate and that is correct, why not work on this long before the weapons were actually used . We seem to be bouncing from pillar to post on the strategy with foreign policy, and if someone would please explain to me where we are trying to get, where we are trying to go. Okay, i get you want to have a punitive strike against a country that has used chemical weapons in an offensive fashion, but realistically what about the day after . Saddam hussein took 18 years to bring Saddam Hussein to justice after he gassed his own people. Yeah, the same type of Justice Needs to be meted out if indeed Bashar Al Assad used these weapons against his own people in the same fashion, but i dont see the conviction to carry through to that result and that type of justice. The speaker came out this morning saying that he supports the president taking action. Obviously that has not swayed you at all, and you said that youve heard from your constituents, and it sounds as though its a fairly negative reaction. Tell me more about that. Well, look, the part of texas that i represent historically very supportive of the military and very supportive of the country when the military is involved, so make no mistake about it. If the decision is made that the military will be involved, obviously i will be supportive, but as far as making the decision to go somewhere else, no, that that case has not been made to me, to the people in my district, to the American People at large. The president rather than trying to convince me i think should be spending his time talking to the American People and telling them not just about what his punishment will be but where he is trying to go with this. Right now no one that i represent seems to have a clear idea of where that destination is. All right. Congressman, thank you for spending time with us. We appreciate it. Simon, down to you. Thanks bring in representative janice hahn, a california democrat. Welcome to the program and thanks so much for joining us. Thank you, simon, for having me. Which way will you vote . As it stands today i am voting no. I took a red eye flight from los angeles saturday night so i could be in washington, d. C. On sunday. I went into the secured vault to read the classified documents. I sat in the briefing with about 100 members of congress who flew back for sunday, and i came away still not convinced that this was a war that i thought we should be involved in and so for me the case has not been made on why we should do this. I will tell you, i appreciate the president not making this decision divorced from the American People or from congress. I was one of those who signed a letter asking the president to allow congress to weigh in on this, and im not going to make this decision divorced from the constituents that i represent, and much like my cloeg wolleagu was just on at labor day picnics and parades yesterday overwhelmingly pleaded with me not to take us to war on this issue. They did not feel like this was a war we needed to get involved in. Im not clear, congresswoman, is your chief objection having seen the secret evidence that the evidence doesnt stack up to prove who was responsible for using the chemical weapons, or is it that you feel that a strike would not be effective . Well, i believe its both of those. We were given intelligence information that allowed our folks to be highly confiden

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