Afternoon. Two big deals to tell you about. First, disney and charter ending their dispute right in time for charter customers to watch monday night football on espn. A lot of new york subscribers. The jets, as everybody here knows, are playing tonight. Charter shares are up 3 1 2 . Wbd up as well on brighter prospects for the tv business. Well have more on that coming up. And a different kind of deal. Smucker is buying hostess for about 5. 6 billion. Should help smucker grow in what the ceo is calling Convenient Food occasions and what we call junk food. Well get a traders take on what this mean for smucker a little later in the show. And we should note those shares are down 7 . So a lot of investors, tyler, a little concerned about the valuation. Kelly, did the giants actually play last night . Were you there . I was there. I felt bad. Soaked and smoked. Believe me. And left at halftime. Wow. All right. Stocks higher today after starting off september with the all too common september slump. Where does the market stand right now . Lets bring in our own mike santoli for more. If you looked at it from a distance, the market behavior this year has been really sticking pretty close to the pattern, the script that you might draw for it, which is strength into july after we had that minor peak in february. And then yes, august, been some chop. We had to kind of cool off in the way of sentiment, in the way of valuation, in the way of technical positioning. All thats been under way. But i think theres also this subtheme out there, and one of the reasons that the market has been very i guess sort of twitchy in the last few weeks is that this late cycle psychology is pretty much pervasive. That means people presume that were in the latter part of this economic expansion. It doesnt go by a clock. You dont really know how much longer it has, how long we can stay late, so to speak. So therefore, were very sensitive to upticks in bond yields, oil prices, whether theyre going to restrain a consumer thats already running out of a cash cushion. And even the u. S. Dollar which has been on quite a run. All this boiled together i think essentially is what we have ahead of us. I also agree, by the way, i know you teased it ahead, bad news is probably bad news right here because you have a fed that said theyre going to be patient. If they move at all its going to be spaced out in small increments. So i dont think youre fearing the fed right here. Youre wondering if the economy in general can handle what yields are up to at this point in the expansion. All right, mike, thank you very much. And we will of course see you at 3 00 p. M. For the closing bell today. Mike santoli. Lets keep the conversation rolling with our next guest, who says and warns weve all heard the line, bad news is good news, it keeps the fed on the sideline, so forth and so on. He says no, bad news is bad news, no matter how the markets have been reacting lately. Lets bring in chris senic, chief investment strategist with wolfe research. Its great to see you, chris. And explain what youre trying to see here. Yeah, hi, kelly. Thanks for having me. So were in this phase where whether the fed hikes zero or one or two more times i dont think is really the story here. Its about how quickly will the economy slow and in fact how will stock sectors react to bad news, right . Weve all talked about mike talked earlier about the consumer slowing sentiment. We think the bad news will in fact be perceived as bad news. You dont have a fed liquidity drive in stocks. And the lag defect of fed rate hikes is just starting to show up. Weve looked historically and it takes about 18 to 24 months for the impact of fed rate hikes to hit the Consumer Spending. And if you think a year ago the fed funds rate was still before this next spending at only 2 1 2 . Right . So it just takes time. And we got a little ahead of the gun thinking it was going to show up in the first half and in reality i think its going to show up in the second half. And what does that mean . The obvious implications to that if it sounds like its worsening are lower stock prices, maybe lower bond yields. The whole thesis that i bet a lot of people in our audience dont want to hear right now. I think what the markets struggling in the near term is rates and oil. Higher oil prices push up Interest Rates on the long end and it creates a little bit of problem for the fed. Sort of the quickest thing weve argued that can end the disinflation narrative is higher oil prices, something many of which including the fed cant predict. And secondly it is incredibly what the bank of japan is doing in letting their longterm Interest Rates back up and relaxing yield curve control is pushing up longterm Interest Rates. So i think as u. S. Longterm Interest Rates move up over the next few months here that itself is going to slow the economy. And i think ultimately Interest Rates and below 4 on a tenyear by the end of the year as the economy really slows. And if in fact we do see higher Interest Rates i think that starts to slow housing which starts to slow Consumer Spending and it has this in a way Snowball Effect on the economy. I was going to ask you to talk a little bit about what you see in housing and what the effect of that is on Consumer Sentiment and then Consumer Spending. What they feel and then what they do. So why dont you do that and also address how inflation is affecting Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Spending because as people look at prices that are stubbornly high for groceries, for gas, for other things they may not be spending as liberally as they had been. Yeah, so theres a lot of news in the press about real wages becoming positive again, right . And that has happened in the past. Just as youve gone into a recession. But i think what a lot of the folks miss is that theres the cumulative impact of inflation. So just because a good went from 100 to 120 and now its only going to 125, we get excited about it because thats disinflationary. But its still 25 over the last three years. Such that if you look at some of the surveys by new michigan looking and asking consumers are cars and houses affordable, the results look terrible. People are saying houses and cars arent affordable. The two biggest areas of the economy arent affordable. I just dont think that can be a good thing. I think housing prices and them being Strong Enough over the last three years has really propped up the consumer. But low inventories is whats holding, you know, prices up. Right . Because you have an asset which hasnt adjusted to fair value because of higher Interest Rates propped up by the fact that theres no inventories. And i worry that if you all of a sudden start to see a slowdown in the economy, start to see more job losses you could just see a total rash of inventories enter the Housing Market and see a bigger than expected collapse in prices than many folks are anticipating. So we think because houses thats not a good thing, thats a bad thing. Ultimately its got to infect hit and demand down the road. The fed meets next week. Theyre not going to say it. Theyre not going to say theyre done. But what if they are . I think, tyler, if theyre done i think whether theyre done or they hike one or two more times, i dont think thats the story here. I think the story is how quickly is the economy going to slow and is it going to slow or not. And our view is its going to slow enough to move the sentiment from soft landing narrative, which is the widened consensus now, to rising recession risks again. And thats all you need to do to impact stock multiples. More earnings may end up being okay for the type time being but to me the real story heres going to be how much if any do multiples for the market compress because of either higher Interest Rates or because expectations shift now to rising recession risks yet again as we kind of get into the fourth quarter. Have to leave it there. Chris, we thank you very much. Chris senyek, we appreciate your time. Well, in the meantime, disney and charter reaching a deal to end the cable blackout before espn before monday night football kicks in. Julia boorstin has the details. So the jets fans or the bills fans will be happy. Im afraid we dont have she was talking, obviously, about the jets and the bills. But thats a good point about the bills as well. These are big media markets. Charter has a lot of new york customers. And i dont want to steal from what shes going to talk about but the details are so interesting because charter subscribers could potentially get disney plus and hulu and espn plus. Well circle back to her in a second. Should we get some news in the meantime from the fda on Covid Vaccines . Novavax shares are moving sharply lower as theyre left out of the bunch. Angela peoples has more. Thanks, kelly. The fda has greenlit new shots from pfizer and moderna. Those shots have been updated to protect against newer variants of covid. However, as you noted, we have not received a decision on novavax. The company says that its application is still under review with the fda. And the fda is saying that people 5 and up are eligible for another Covid Vaccine about two months since their last one and people six months to 4 years old could receive one to three depending on how many theyve already received. Tomorrow we will hear from the cdcs advisers, who will make some more specific recommendations. Until then we are waiting. Pfizer and moderna are both saying that they should have their vaccines ready to go as soon as this week. Back to you, kelly. Yeah, its a biggie. Angelica, thank you. Thank you. We appreciate. Angelica peoples reporting. Apple is being the most talked about stock on the street once again after last weeks china drama and today announcing a new supply deal with qualcomm. And you may have heard about its little event coming up tomorrow. We will get you the details on all of that. Also, tesla, another stock which gets a ton of attention, and its up almost 10 today after an upgrade from influential auto analyst adam jonas. Does our trader see what he sees . Well ask her coming up later on. Dad, we got this. We got this. We got this. We got this. Life is for living. We got this. Lets partner for all of it. Edward jones businesses need 5g solutions today. Thats why they choose tmobile for business. Mlb partners with tmobile to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. Aaa relies on tmobiles network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. And were helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. Nows the time to see what americas largest 5g network can do for your business. As we mentioned earlier disney and charter reaching a deal now toned the cable blackout for espn right before monday night football. And once again we go to Julia Boorstin who has the details. Hi, julia. Hi, tyler. Im here. And this deal was made just in time. And this deals what disney and charter are calling transformational is what sources tell me, is a modern melding of linear tv rights and digital distribution, and it really forges a new path for charters paid tv business while also dramatically increasing the reach of disney plus with ads. Now, disney plus ad supported tier will be included in spectrum tv select video packages. Not for free for charter but what they call a wholesale arrangement. And its guaranteed for all of spectrums video subscribers. Meanwhile, espn plus will be included in spectrum tvs select plus video packages and when espn launches its direct to consumer Flagship Service it will be made available to spectrum tv select customers. And charter says it will sell all of disneys direct to Consumer Services to its broadbandonly users. Now, sources tell me this is really seen as a winwin. Though charter is dropping some of disneys smaller channels including freeform and disney xd, that is far outweighed by new compensation for disney plus. And then additional upside from that platform reaching a broader audience with its advertising. Meanwhile, charter has some new value to retain its paid tv subscribers. It does have that broadband business but it wants to retain the pay tv business as well. Kelly, tyler . How much should we look at this, julia, as a template for future carriage agreements . I think its very much a template for future carriage agreements for disney. Its unclear how much other Media Companies will be able to follow in this path and use it for their future carriage agreements. Disney is of course unique in that it does have this portfolio, direct to Consumer Brands in disney plus, espn plus, hulu and then of course there are also developing this espn direct to consumer business. So disney does have that sort of portfolio. It will be interesting to see what happens with Warner Brothers discovery. They do have max. And weve heard from Ceo David Zaslav about how they want to build that into its own mini bundle and incorporate sports as well. But i think this is going to be part of the conversation now. If you are a Cable Provider and you also sell a pay tv bundle, the question is going to be how are you incorporating both of these into your negotiations. I have to say at great career risk that i think very highly of a lot about comcast in this situation because comcast is both a deliverer of content and a creator distributor of content. And thats going to be a gnarly issue down the road, it would seem to me. Well, comcast has been both a supplier and a buyer, if you will, for quite a long time now. But also remember that comcast has the broadband tv business. So comcast is also providing the pipes and even if people cut the cord or switch to these digitally provided bundles like a hulu with live tv or a youtube with live tv they have to get the broadband in order to be able to stream that content. Sure. So being a pipes provider does provide comcast an advantage here. And theyve been playing around with some of these skinnier bundles with this idea of a direct to consumer bundle thats over the yrnt rather than traditional cable tv. So comcast really has its hands in every different part of this business. Fascinating changes coming to this business. Julia boorstin all over it as usual. Thanks. And apple is back in the spotlight today. After dropping last week on china concerns and ahead of a big Product Announcement tomorrow, today theyre reaching a deal with qualcomm on chip production. Steve kovac joining us now. I dont think is he in San Francisco i didnt even realize steve, i thought you were here earlier when we were no. Wow. Okay. West coast. Kristina partsinevelos is right here with us on set and theres many angles of this to discuss. First of all tell us about the deal. Its important because two reasons. One, you have qualcomm thats going to continue supplying modem chips to apple until 2026. So thats seen as a win, especially because apple is its largest customer, contributes over 23 of total revenue. Thats a win. The second major part of this too is that the patent Licensing Agreement will also continue. Thats seen as a separate stream of revenue for qualcomm. Both of them coming in. However, if you look at the stock price, it jumped up 8 earlier this morning. Its come down off of those highs. Theres probably two reasons for that. One is we dont know the actual terms of the deal but the assumption is that maybe qualcomms giving some type of preferential pricing to apple, which means its not exactly as amazing for as we thought. The second thing is we cant deny apple is still working on creating its own inhouse modem chips as well. It may not be there today which is why it still needs to use qualcomms chips for the next three years, but its on that trajectory. So what does that mean for qualcomm two years from now or three years, 2026 . When it loses its largest customer. And i know its been pivoting. But still hasnt apple been making its own chips for computers . Yes. For some time. Quite some time. I know steve can weigh in on a lot of this. But specifically for 5g modems and the chips that are used for wifi, all that. Qualcomm and apple have been fighting for years. And then in 2019 apple bought intels modem chip business. So that it could create its own chips. And you would think at this point in 2019 to 2023 it would be up to par. But it hasnt been up to par. The apple production, the modem chips. With its core processors thats a different story. Apples done very well. Which is why they put those core processors into the macs and they pushed out intel when it comes to the actual computers. Steve, you want to jump in here, explain this to me . Exactly. The timing of this is just perfect for qualcomm and not so great for apple. Its proving 24 hours before we see these new iphones you have qualcomm effectively coming out and saying hey, tomorrows iphone 15, thats going to be powered by qualcomm technology, and not just that. The 16, 17, and 18 iphones are also going to be covered by that technology too. And it just proves that this is a harder business than maybe even apple thought it was going to be. We were talking all day about this. But four years ago they went out and spent a billion dollars on intels modem patents to basically make that a foundation so they can create their own modem, divorce intel from qualcomm basically they have to pay qualcomm a few bucks for every phone they sell on top of the costs of the components. That whole legal battle between these two companies was over that licensing fee. Apple was projected basically they cant win that case, and they had that settlement. And now at four years later here we are. They have not been able to figure out how to make a modem thats on par with qualcomms. So theyre basically forced to go back to qualcomm and sign this deal. Its not often that steve and i get to be on the same panel. And i think this speaks to the greater theme were seeing within the ai software chip world, is the lines have been blurred. So you have apple creating