Transcripts For CNBC Mad Money 20161117 : comparemela.com

CNBC Mad Money November 17, 2016

The exits . Joining us again todd where the dow gained 26 points, nasdaq climbed 0. 74 . You know, some feel very different since this election of donald trump. Theres a sense of optimism about stocks, and that optimism seems to extend to both republicans and democrats. Whether you love him or hate him, people are clearly buying stocks the way they used to before stocks became persona nongrata when it came to places where to your money. Its almost as if some sort of magic wand was waved that removed the gloom, busted it, and its being transmuted into higher prices even without any facts behind this move other than the kind of throw the bums out logic that you get whenever the white house changes handing from one party to the other. But heres whats hard to argue with. Many of the biggest moves ive seen in my career started without any apparent basis in the facts. Let me give you two of the most prominent examples from my 36 years of investing. First was when Ronald Reagan was elected to the white house in 1980. Optimism ensued which coincided with the end of the great bear market in bonds, one that saw Interest Rates climb all the way to 14 . Now, at the time few on wall street believed that a former actor turned politician could really make a difference at a time of national gloom. Almost mourning for america. Thats. Mourning kind. Reagan turned into the good kind of mourning although you could argue he had some help from fed chief fred volucker. I think the reagan analogy has some heft. Even if reagan had actually been the governor of california while trumps a political neofight, albeit one who spent decades running a real estate empire, however this analogy is a subtle one. In retrospect, reagan was needed by of a malaise, a crisis of confidence. In this latest election, i think many people in states that went democratic four years ago voted for trump because of a similar sense of National Economic malaise. Even though the numbers paint a very different picture. We had the lowest jobless claims today in 40 years. Wages have finally begun to turn up. But after six years of gridlock in washington, it seems like voters wanted the government to try Something Different to boost the economy. In this case, major Infrastructure Spending coupled with tax cuts and deregulation. Thats a lot more reaganesque than you might think because the truth is the gipper did a ton of deficit spending. The skektd time i saw this phenomenon is a little more obscure. It was in 1991 in Alan Greenspan decided to raise short term Interest Rates to stem a banking collapse. The banking group, always the best and broadest of leaders, as we are seeing again this time around, just took off out of thin air until you realized that greenspans rate hike was giving the financials a chance to rebuild capital because it meant they could get a much better return from investing your deposits. It government their earnings on track. It instilled a level of confidence in stocks that we hadnt seen since reagan was elected, and then we were off to the races. These were both specific instances where the federal government didnt just stand there. It did something, and those somethings were very good for the stock market. I reach back to those two incidents because they led to growth spurts that led people back to the stock market in droves. They changed the perception of the asset class from negative to positive. The entire asset class of equities. I think that could be exactly whats happening right now. People are starting to talk about this economy being able to grow sustainably next year, perhaps by as much as 4 . Thats throwing investors into stocks and out of bonds of the lets face it. Until this election, despite the decent returns the averages had given us, stocks had fallen out of favor as a place to put your money. I sense that view could be reversing now, which of course as someone who lives and breathes stocks, feels like fresh oxygen pumped into the room. Its that sea change, whether you like trump or not, thats fueling this rally, putting these bids underneath. I mean for years the stock market had come to feel like a bit of a moribund entity. Sure we had a few stocks that captured our attention like fang. Now, those stocks have momentarily lost their luster and weve got giant moves in parts of the market that have been overlooked for ages. So what happens now . Heres four thoughts i can back up with plenty of different examples. First, the move in banks, it is here to stay. You get a president who wants to spend without tax hikes, and you get a fed thats going to raise rates repeatedly and multiple rate hikes can fuel a rally that wont be stopping anytime soon. Second, the industrials are going to be given a pass on their earnings, even if they arent doing well at the moment. Every time their stocks come down, buyers emerge. Its almost eerie how much investors like these stock now. Same with rail and airlines. Third, the consumer is worth betting on because shes going to have a lot more cash if theres tax cuts. Walmart had a suboptimal quarter today. But best buy, the quintessential store ford, its stock soared. People circled back to home defee d depot today. Oh, and childrens place was up 13 . Tonight ross stores blew away the numbers. Now, thats consumer spending. Notice a pattern . These are retailers of the more expensive, sort of discretionary, the kind you buy when the consumer is feeling a little better. Believe me, the moves higher in these stocks would have stopped already if it werent for the change in the white house. Finally because theres enough new money coming into the market, we arent sacrificing peter to pay paul anymore. Plenty of people were worried tech couldnt go higher at the same time as the banks. But facebook is now higher than it was before the inflated video metric scandal hit. What does that tell you . Amazon started roaring back too. These stocks feel like theyve done their time in purgatory. We also saw a huge lift in oldfashioned semis. Now, we dont have the statistics necessary yet to confirm my new money thesis, to ratify the better light that now shines on the asset class, but heres what we do know. Weve seen moves like this one that were broad and seemingly based on nothing, nothing but animal spirits, moves that were widely derided, laughed at, scorned, that is, until we discovered that they were rallying based on a recognition that the economy could be accelerating. And theres a belief that well get that growth if trump can pull off what hes promised. Heres the promise line. Welcome back, stock owners. Weve missed you. Dont worry, its not too late. Theres still lots of stocks nowhere near their highs. Plenty to make a ton of sense. Do some homework, find companies you like and wait. With new money coming in, they wont last for long. Lee in minnesota, lee. Caller jim, fantastic to talk to you. Same. Caller what i like better than your enthusiasm is your stock picking ability. Thank you. Caller stx. Whats going to happen now that trump is going to change nafta . I think he cares more about tax on cars than he cares about a tax on modelo and corona. That would be an unpopular solution. I want a tax on modelo . Well, not just because i own a mexican bar. But i got to tell you i think the constellation stocks have been unfairly punished. I want people to go back to that analyst day and youll see a lot of good things in it about how well stz is doing. Lets go to chris in new york, chris. Caller jim, with the proposed infrastructure repairs that trump is proposing, i wondered if youre still bullish on American Water work or if theres a better way to play that. No, no. I think thats a long term sec li yew lar theme, and thats not a reason why you sell that stock. You buy that stock because theres going to be more privatization, because thats what the municipalities have to do. Lets go to john in high old home state of pennsylvania, john. Caller hey, jim, booyah. I watch your show every day. Thank you. Caller i bought barclays after the brexit price drop in 7 range and just wanted your thoughts on the companys future. Should i hold . Yeah, i would hold it. I mean i think that business is going to come back in britain. You know, you didnt buy the rbs, which is the one that i dont countenance. You bought a good bank thats doing quite well. I wish theyd come on air. By the way, ubs, youre also invited. Lets get some of those foreign bankers in here. Im an open minded fellow. All right. Can you feel it . Theres a sense of optimism about stocks again even if it all seems fanciful for now. In my experience, sometimes thats what you need to get things moving. On mad money tonight, all eyes on are salesforce tonight. Well take a closer look when the ceo joins me right here on the set. Then they came. They saw, they conquered. Im talking about my inductees into the mad money wall of fame. Dont miss who im adding to the fabled wall. And this is rally for real . One stock can tell you just that. Ill tell you which Company Holds the key to this markets move higher. Stay with cramer. Announcer dont miss a second of mad money. Follow jimcramer on twitter. Have a question . Tweet cramer, madtweets. Send jim an email to madmoney cnbc. Com or give us a call at 1800743cnbc. Miss something . Head to madmoney. Cnbc. Com. What to do with the stock of salesforce. Lets go to the man himself, fresh off a great quarter, heres mark benioff, the visionary cofounder, chairman, and ceo of salesforce. Mr. Benioff, welcome back to mad money. Jim, good to be here. Good to have you in person. You put out a number more than 10 billion. Weve been waiting for that. It finally happened, and youre putting out a 20 billion number which means youre not just thinking about this quarter. Its very exciting. You can see the growth. Its incredible. You saw 12 billion on and off the balance sheet. Thats amazing. Last time you were here you were actually disappointed in yourself. You think there was business that could have closed that didnt. This is just back on track to the point where you actually are giving a forecast thats much further out than any other ceo ive been dealing with. Last quarter we had that unexpected Foreign Exchange head wind. We talked about, the fall of the Great British pound. Were past that. We had a great third quarter. Were anticipating a great fourth quarter. Were looking at a great year next year. I know you spent a month in japan, asia pacific up 38. Is that what happens when you i want to talk about some customers because they seem like big wins. James gorman and Morgan Stanley has got a tremendous outfit. A lot of big retail but managed and done a great job. Hes brought you in. What are you doing for him . Well, you look at some of the big wins this quarter, and Morgan Stanley, amazing. Pnc bank also amazing. And citi. Three huge Financial Service wins. That was very exciting for the quarter. For our viewers, theyre going to say why didnt you talk about amazon . Thats the most exciting one. Amazon was awesome, and tmobile. We saw them at dream foerce and saw them expand again in the third quarter. I thought one was quizzical. The department of agriculture win. Do you think those kinds of jobs will still be available in a Different Administration . I do. The government is transforming and theyre looking to lower their i. T. Costs and go to the cloud. And theres no better way to do that than salesforce. I know you regard yourself as an american. You dont talk about democratic or republican. That was before the election. But do you think because of some close ties with some work you did with the Democratic Party that it will be more difficult to procure large contracts because youre frankly not a big supporter of republicans that we know of . Well, im not a republican, and im not a democrat either. You know that i view myself just as an american. Right. Im looking forward to a great future. Will you speak to the president elect if he gives you a call in. If he calls me, im happy to call him back. Fair enough. I want to talk about what the world is like out there because this had been a feeling things had slowed. All of your geographies tell me thats wrong. I had a somewhat difficult conversation today with Chuck Robbins at cisco where they actually said that r there were macrohead wins. Not to denigrate cisco because its a Great American company, but i dont see any macro headwinds. If you remember in our last conversation, jim, we were in the Second Quarter and we told you at the very end of the Second Quarter, the very end, we saw a little bit of headwind. I think maybe thats what Chuck Robbins felt in this quarter and other Companies Like him have seen some of that. This quarter, i think we picked it up early. We had to make some shift changes in our business and now we have this great result in the third quarter. Chuck also said this morning to me on squawk on the street, theres a kind of a different feeling. Now, maybe its just postelection, didnt matter who won. I know its only been a week for you. But are you you mean you speak with more clients than anyone. Youve been in new york. Youre in touch. Among democrats and republicans, different feel . Look, i think that everybody wants progress. Everybody wants things to move forward. Everybody is still weve talked about this, jim. Were still coming out of the 2008 problem. Right. You know theres a huge tail on that. But you know also ive been a huge bull around growth in 2017, 18, 19. I feel when you look at the Global Economy and you talk to these global customers, whether its here in the united states, whether it is in japan, whether it is in europe, ive seen a lot of those customers burn off a lot of the 2008 problem, and im optimistic for whats coming in the future. So optimistic that you can see weve given guidance for more than 10. 1 billion, and you know theres only been three Software Companies in history that have done that. Well, go ahead. We dont have to name them. What i think is important is there was also, when i saw you at dream force, there was a belief that mark benioff was on a buying spree of new kinds of companies because his growth was not holding up. And i think if youre giving that long a forecast, that whoever felt that way is probably going to be well, we talked about that at dream force. I felt those comments were mostly coming from our competition. The reality is our core is so strong and we had these incredible opportunities to pick up these awesome companies. I mean you saw kwip, this incredible startup created by bret taylor, the former cco of facebook wants to sell us his company. You cannot turn that down, jim. And now you can go to the app store. You can download kwip and have the most incredible word processing, spreadsheet. Lets talk about sales forces future. On the november 14th recode, our friend was interviewing you. I love cara. How can you not . We all love cara, but she did talk about the evolution of your relationship with microsoft. It went from kind of said friend to frenemy to frankly with what youre doing with linked in, i can only call you guys enemies. We just had a surprise. Thats all. We thought there was a new microsoft. We got a call from sacha, said, hey, were so excited to work with you. Would you spend some time with Scott Guthrie. Youre going to love him. Tell him all about your strategy. We met with Scott Guthrie, and then two weeks later, read in the newspaper that Scott Guthrie is now in charge of their crm business. Im like that would have been good to know ahead of time. Then i kind of was like, you know, maybe the new microsoft is actually the old microsoft. Look, these were the midmanagers during that era. Now theyve moved up, and the culture is back. In the old microsoft under steve palmer, who has worked with me at harvard was a bit of a monday opp lift. I think your linkedin complaint would indicate you think that could happen again. Well, i think that you see, you know, the commissioners in europe have also stated there is a very sensitive acquisition because microsoft has stated publicly at that Deutsche Bank conference, which i read. Youre right. What did they say, jim . They said they intend to use it to take all the business . Is that fair and is that legal . It was called dumb. If they had general counsel there, it probably wouldnt have been said. The europeans also read that. And other software Companies Like oracle and sage and others have read that and made the same conclusion that that is something that the industry is not going to stand for. Look, we want a fair playing field, and we want everyone to have a good chance. All right. Now, im not going to let benioff go without talking about benioff and the corporation and where that stands with the world. First, lets start with the fact that i know you think that twitter was instrumental in electing a new president. I do think thats true. And that makes to me twitter a more valuable franchise. When i saw you, twitter was at 24. Now its at 18. Youre a persuasive man. You persuaded many people. Why dont we say lets do it and get it done . As ive said, i think its an Amazing Company and a great ceo. But, you know, Companies Like fidelity and t. Rowe price, who are shareholders said, that was not for them. That was before they elected a president. You know what, i operate this company in partnership with our shareholders, with our employeers, with our partners. And i have to listen to them and work together. Its my pleasure to do so. On that leak, we saw a bunch of companies, workday, service now, pegasystems, viva, box, that was chatter. People said, he might be any one of those. You were always looking dr. Youre reading our directors emails, i see. They put them online wherever you want them. Its an open kimono at salesforce. All of our secrets are online. Its all good. You can also see we run a really clean shop. Absolutely. Now, you famously, i think, started and were able to put a stop to some legislation that you regarded as discriminatory in indiana. The man who w

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